Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Translator: Júlia Ramírez Reviewer: Elena Pérez Gómez

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

M'agradaria que imaginéssiu

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

que sou un soldat, enmig de la batalla.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

Potser un soldat romà d'infanteria, o un arquer medieval,

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

o un guerrer zulu.

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

L'època i el lloc són indiferents, però hi ha aspectes constants.

Your adrenaline is elevated,

L'adrenalina s'eleva

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

i les accions sorgeixen d'uns reflexos molt arrelats;

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

reflexos arrelats a una necessitat de protegir-nos

and to defeat the enemy.

i vèncer l'enemic.

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

Ara, m'agradaria que imaginéssiu que sou algú completament diferent:

that of the scout.

un explorador.

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

La tasca de l'explorador no és atacar o defensar,

The scout's job is to understand.

sinó entendre.

The scout is the one going out,

És aquell qui surt

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

examina el terreny, identifica possibles obstacles.

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

L'explorador espera descobrir que hi ha, per exemple, un pont

in a convenient location across a river.

en un lloc adequat d'un riu.

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

Però sobretot, l'explorador vol saber què hi ha allà fora,

as accurately as possible.

tan bé com pugui.

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

A l'exèrcit, ambdós són essencials,

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

però també es poden considerar mentalitats:

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

una metàfora de com processem la informació i les idees

in our daily lives.

en la vida quotidiana.

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

Avui debatré sobre com tenir una opinió correcta,

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

predir adequadament o prendre bones decisions,

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

depèn de la nostra mentalitat.

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

Per il·lustrar aquestes mentalitats,

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

vull tornar a la França del segle XIX.

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

Allà, un tros de paper, aparentment innocu,

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

va suposar un dels escàndols polítics més grans de la història.

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

Va ser descobert l'any 1894 per oficials de l'exèrcit francès.

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

Estava fet trossos en una paperera,

but when they pieced it back together,

però el van ajuntar

they discovered that someone in their ranks

per descobrir que algú dels seus rangs

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

estava venent secrets militars a Alemanya.

So they launched a big investigation,

Així doncs, van començar una gran investigació

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

i les sospites els van dirigir a aquest home:

Alfred Dreyfus.

Alfred Dreyfus.

He had a sterling record,

Tenia un historial excels,

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

cap equivocació, cap motivació que poguessin trobar.

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

Però en Dreyfus era l'únic oficial jueu d'aquell rang de l'exèrcit

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

i, per desgràcia, en aquella època l'exèrcit francès era antisemita.

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

Van comparar la cal·ligrafia d'en Dreyfus amb la de la nota

and concluded that it was a match,

i van concloure que coincidien,

even though outside professional handwriting experts

malgrat que experts professionals externs

were much less confident in the similarity,

no n'estaven tant convençuts,

but never mind that.

els va donar igual.

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

Van inspeccionar el pis d'en Dreyfus,

looking for any signs of espionage.

buscant senyals d'espionatge.

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

Van revisar les seves carpetes, però no van trobar res.

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

Cosa que els va convèncer que en Dreyfus era culpable

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

i a més, escorredís, perquè havia amagat les proves

before they had managed to get to it.

abans que les trobessin.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

Després, van revisar l'historial personal,

for any incriminating details.

per tal de trobar detalls criminatoris.

They talked to his teachers,

Van parlar amb els professors,

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

i van descobrir que havia estudiat llengües estrangeres,

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

que demostrava la intenció de conspirar amb governs estrangers

later in life.

més endavant.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

Els professors també van dir que en Dreyfus tenia bona memòria.

which was highly suspicious, right?

Molt sospitós, oi?

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

Perquè, com bé sabeu, un espia ha de recordar moltes coses.

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

El cas va anar a judici i en Dreyfus va ser declarat culpable.

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

Més tard, el van fer sortir a una plaça

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

i, com a ritual, li van arrencar la insígnia de l'uniforme

and broke his sword in two.

i van trencar-li l'espasa en dos.

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

Va ser anomenat "la degradació de Dreyfus".

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

El van sentenciar a cadena perpètua

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

a l'illa del Diable, curiosament anomenada,

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

una barrera de roques a prop de la costa de Sud-amèrica.

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

Hi va anar i va passar els dies sol,

writing letters and letters to the French government

escrivint cartes i més cartes al govern francès,

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

demanant que obrissin el cas, perquè descobrissin que era innocent.

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

En general, però, França considerava el cas tancat.

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

El que més m'interessa del cas Dreyfus

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

és per què els oficials estaven convençuts

that Dreyfus was guilty.

que en Dreyfus era culpable.

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

És a dir, es podria creure que li tendien una trampa,

that they were intentionally framing him.

que l'incriminaven de manera intencionada.

But historians don't think that's what happened.

Però els historiadors no creuen que fos així.

As far as we can tell,

Pel que sabem,

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

els oficials creien de veritat que el cas contra Dreyfus tenia motius de pes.

Which makes you wonder:

Cosa que em fa pensar

What does it say about the human mind

el que diu de la ment humana,

that we can find such paltry evidence

el fet que unes proves tan insignificants siguin

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

tan convincents com per condemnar algú.

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

Els científics ho anomenen "raonament motivat".

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

És un fenomen en què les motivacions inconscients,

our desires and fears,

els desitjos i les pors,

shape the way we interpret information.

determinen com interpretem la informació.

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

Hi ha informació, idees, que semblen aliades:

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

volem que guanyin, volem defensar-les.

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

Hi ha informació, idees, que són l'enemic

and we want to shoot them down.

i volem abatre-les.

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

Per això dic que aquest raonament és la "mentalitat del soldat".

Probably most of you have never persecuted

Probablement, cap de vosaltres ha perseguit mai

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

un oficial francès jueu per alta traïció,

I assume,

suposo.

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

Però segurament heu seguit esports, política, i us haureu adonat

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

que quan l'àrbitre creu que el nostre equip ha comès una falta,

for example,

per exemple,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

estem motivats a saber per què no té raó.

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

Però si creu que l'altre equip ha comès una falta, perfecte!

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

És una bona decisió, no ho analitzem tant.

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

O, potser hem llegit un article o un estudi

that examined some controversial policy,

que analitza una llei controvertida,

like capital punishment.

com la pena de mort.

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

I, com els investigadors han demostrat,

if you support capital punishment

si defensem la pena de mort,

and the study shows that it's not effective,

i l'estudi demostra que no és efectiva,

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

estem més motivats a saber per què

why the study was poorly designed.

l'estudi no està ben enfocat.

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

Però si demostra que la pena de mort funciona,

it's a good study.

és un bon estudi.

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

I viceversa: si no creiem en la pena de mort, igual.

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

La nostra opinió està molt influenciada, inconscientment,

by which side we want to win.

per allò que volem que guanyi.

And this is ubiquitous.

I això és ubic.

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

Determina la manera de pensar en la salut, les relacions,

how we decide how to vote,

com decidir el vot,

what we consider fair or ethical.

allò que considerem just o ètic.

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

El que més por fa sobre el raonament motivat

or soldier mindset,

o mentalitat del soldat

is how unconscious it is.

és com n'és d'inconscient.

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

Podem pensar que som objectius i justos

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

i acabar arruïnant la vida d'un home innocent.

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

Tanmateix, per sort pel Dreyfus, la història no acaba aquí.

This is Colonel Picquart.

Ell és el coronel Picquart.

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

És un altre oficial d'alt rang de l'exèrcit francès.

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

Com la majoria de gent, creia que Dreyfus era culpable.

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

Com molta gent a l'exèrcit, era, casualment, antisemita.

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

Però en algun moment, Picquart va començar a sospitar:

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

"I si ens equivoquem amb en Dreyfus?"

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

El que va passar, va ser que havia descobert

that the spying for Germany had continued,

que l'espia alemany havia continuat

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

després d'enviar en Dreyfus a la presó.

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

També havia descobert que un altre oficial de l'exèrcit

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

tenia una cal·ligrafia igual a la de la nota,

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

molt més semblant que la d'en Dreyfus.

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

Així, va portar els descobriments als seus superiors,

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

però, per desgràcia, o bé els va ser igual,

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

o van començar amb racionalitzacions per justificar els descobriments.

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

Com ara, "has descobert que hi ha un altre espia

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

que ha après a copiar la cal·ligrafia d'en Dreyfus

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

i li ha pres el relleu,

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

però en Dreyfus és culpable".

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

Finalment, Picquart va aconseguir exonerar en Dreyfus.

But it took him 10 years,

Va trigar 10 anys

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

i part d'aquest temps també ell va anar a la presó

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

per deslleialtat a l'exèrcit.

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

Molta gent creu que Picquart no pot ser l'heroi de la història,

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

perquè era antisemita, i això és dolent, que és cert.

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

Però, personalment crec que el fet que fos antisemita

actually makes his actions more admirable,

fa que les seves accions siguin més admirables encara;

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

perquè tenia els mateixos prejudicis i raons per ser parcial

as his fellow officers,

que els seus companys oficials.

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

Però la seva motivació per descobrir la veritat

i defensar-la ho va superar tot.

So to me,

Per a mi,

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

Picquart és un exemple de la "mentalitat de l'explorador".

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

És l'impuls de no fer que una idea guanyi o perdi,

but just to see what's really there

sinó veure què hi ha en realitat, tan precís com sigui possible.

as honestly and accurately as you can,

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

Encara que no sigui agradable o convenient.

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

Aquesta mentalitat és la que m'apassiona.

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

I durant els últims anys, he investigat i intentat descobrir

what causes scout mindset.

l'origen de la mentalitat d'explorador.

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

Per què hi ha gent, de vegades, almenys,

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

que pot apartar els prejudicis, la parcialitat i la motivació,

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

i intenta veure els fets i les proves

as objectively as they can?

el més objectivament possible.

And the answer is emotional.

La resposta és emocional.

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

Tal com la mentalitat del soldat s'arrela a emocions

like defensiveness or tribalism,

com l'actitud defensiva o el tribalisme,

scout mindset is, too.

també ho fa l'explorador.

It's just rooted in different emotions.

S'arrela a emocions diferents.

For example, scouts are curious.

Per exemple, els exploradors són curiosos,

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

estan predisposats a dir que senten plaer

when they learn new information

quan aprenen coses noves,

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

o que desitgen resoldre un enigma.

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

Estan predisposats a la intriga quan troben alguna cosa

that contradicts their expectations.

que contradiu les expectatives.

Scouts also have different values.

També tenen valors diferents:

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

diran més fàcilment que és virtuós

to test your own beliefs,

posar a prova les creences;

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

i no diran que algú que canvia d'opinió

seems weak.

és dèbil.

And above all, scouts are grounded,

I, sobretot, tenen els peus a terra,

which means their self-worth as a person

és a dir, que la seva autoestima

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

no va lligada a tenir raó o no en alguna cosa.

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

Poden creure que la pena de mort funciona.

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

Si els estudis demostren que no, poden dir

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

"Vaja, sembla que no tinc raó. No vol dir que sigui dolent o estúpid".

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

Aquest conjunt de trets és el que, segons els investigadors

and I've also found anecdotally --

i personalment trobo anecdòtic,

predicts good judgment.

prediu el seny.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

El que vull que n'extraieu, d'aquestes característiques,

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

és que no demostren com en som de llestos

or about how much you know.

o tot el que sabem.

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

De fet, no tenen cap relació amb el QI.

They're about how you feel.

Tenen relació amb el que sentim.

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

Hi ha una cita de Saint-Exupéry,

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

l'autor del Petit Príncep,

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

que diu: "Si vols construir un vaixell,

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

no fomentis que els homes agafin fusta i no donis ordres

and distribute the work.

ni distribueixis la feina.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

Ensenya'ls a anhelar el mar vast i infinit".

In other words, I claim,

En altres paraules, us dic

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

que si volem millorar el nostre criteri com a persones

and as societies,

i com a societats,

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

no necessitem més educació en lògica,

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

ni en retòrica, probabilitat o economia,

even though those things are quite valuable.

malgrat que aquestes tinguin molt valor.

But what we most need to use those principles well

El que necessitem per emprar bé aquests principis,

is scout mindset.

és mentalitat d'explorador.

We need to change the way we feel.

Cal canviar la manera com ens sentim.

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

Cal aprendre a estar orgullosos, no avergonyits,

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

quan ens adonem que no tenim raó.

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

Cal aprendre a estar intrigats, no a la defensiva,

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

quan trobem informació que contradiu les creences.

So the question I want to leave you with is:

La pregunta que us vull fer és:

What do you most yearn for?

Què és el que més anheleu?

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

Anheleu defensar les vostres creences?

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

O veure el món tant clarament com sigui possible?

Thank you.

Gràcies.

(Applause)

(Aplaudiments)