Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Prevoditelj: Danijela Rako Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

Željela bih da na trenutak zamislite

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

da ste vojnik u žaru borbe.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

Možda ste rimski vojnik-pješak ili srednjovjekovni strijelac

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

ili možda Zulu ratnik.

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

Bez obzira na vrijeme i mjesto, ima nekih stvari koje su nepromjenjive.

Your adrenaline is elevated,

Vaš adrenalin je povišen,

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

a vaši postupci proizlaze iz tih duboko ukorijenjenih refleksa,

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

refleksa koji su ukorijenjeni u potrebi da zaštitite sebe i svoju stranu

and to defeat the enemy.

i da porazite neprijatelja.

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

Sada bih htjela da se zamislite u vrlo drugačijoj ulozi,

that of the scout.

u ulozi izviđača.

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

Posao izviđača nije napad ili obrana.

The scout's job is to understand.

Posao izviđača je razumijevanje.

The scout is the one going out,

Izviđač je onaj koji izlazi van,

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

mapira teren, utvrđuje moguće prepreke.

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

Izviđač se može nadati da će saznati da, recimo, postoji most

in a convenient location across a river.

na povoljnom mjestu preko rijeke.

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

No, povrh svega, izviđač želi znati čega tamo stvarno ima

as accurately as possible.

što je točnije moguće.

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

I u stvarnoj, pravoj vojsci i vojnik i izviđač su ključni.

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

Ali također možete smatrati svaku od uloga kao način razmišljanja --

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

metaforu za to kako mi svi obrađujemo informacije i ideje

in our daily lives.

u našim svakodnevnim životima.

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

Ono što ću obrazložiti danas jest da dobra prosudba,

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

točno predviđanje i donošenje dobrih odluka

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

ovisi o tome kakav način razmišljanja imate.

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

Kako bih vam prikazala te načine razmišljanja u praksi,

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

odvest ću vas u Francusku 19. stoljeća

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

gdje je ovaj komad papira bezazlenog izgleda

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

pokrenuo jedan od najvećih političkih skandala u povijesti.

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

Otkrili su ga časnici u francuskom generalnom stožeru u 1894.

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

Bio je rastrgan u kanti za smeće,

but when they pieced it back together,

ali kada su ga sastavili,

they discovered that someone in their ranks

otkrili su da je netko iz njihovih redova

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

Njemačkoj prodavao vojne tajne.

So they launched a big investigation,

Pa su pokrenuli veliku istragu,

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

a njihove sumnje su bile brzo usmjerene na ovog čovjeka,

Alfred Dreyfus.

Alfreda Dreyfusa.

He had a sterling record,

Imao je izvanredan dosje,

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

nikakve prethodne prijestupe, nikakav motiv, kako im se činilo.

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

Ali je Dreyfus bio jedini židovski časnik toga reda u vojsci,

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

a nažalost, u to je vrijeme francuska vojska bila vrlo antisemitska.

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

Usporedili su Dreyfusov rukopis s tim dopisom

and concluded that it was a match,

i zaključili da se podudaraju

even though outside professional handwriting experts

iako vanjski profesionalni stručnjaci za rukopis

were much less confident in the similarity,

nisu baš bili sigurni u sličnost,

but never mind that.

ali to nije važno.

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

Pretražili su Dreyfusov stan

looking for any signs of espionage.

tražeći bilo kakve znakove špijunaže.

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

Pregledali su mu spise i nisu ništa našli.

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

To ih je samo uvjerilo još više da Dreyfus nije samo kriv,

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

nego je i lukav jer je očito sakrio sve dokaze

before they had managed to get to it.

prije nego što su ih oni uspjeli naći.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

Nakon toga, pretražili su njegovu osobnu povijest

for any incriminating details.

zbog okrivljujućih detalja.

They talked to his teachers,

Razgovarali su s učiteljima,

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

i saznali su da je učio strane jezike u školi

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

što očito pokazuje želju za zavjerom sa stranim vladama

later in life.

kasnije u životu.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

Njegovi učitelji su rekli da je Dreyfus bio poznat po dobrom pamćenju,

which was highly suspicious, right?

što je vrlo sumnjivo, zar ne?

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

Zato što špijun mora zapamtiti mnogo stvari.

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

Pa je slučaj završio na sudu i Dreyfus je osuđen.

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

Nakon toga, izveli su ga na neki javni trg

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

i ritualno strgnuli znamenje s uniforme

and broke his sword in two.

te razlomili mač na dva dijela.

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

To se nazvalo Ponižavanje Drayfusa.

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

Pa su ga osudili na doživotni zatvor

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

na prikladno nazvanom Vražjem otoku,

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

koji je gola stijena blizu obale Južne Amerike.

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

Tamo je otišao i tamo je svoje dane proveo sam,

writing letters and letters to the French government

pišući pisma i pisma francuskoj vladi u kojima ih je

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

molio da ponovno otvore njegov slučaj kako bi otkrili da je nevin.

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

Ali uglavnom je Francuska to smatrala završenim slučajem.

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

Jedna stvar koja mi je zaista zanimljiva o aferi Dreyfus

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

jest pitanje zašto su časnici bili toliko uvjereni

that Dreyfus was guilty.

da je Dreyfus bio kriv.

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

Mogli biste čak pretpostaviti da su mu smjestili,

that they were intentionally framing him.

da su mu namjerno podmetnuli.

But historians don't think that's what happened.

Ali povjesničari ne misle da se to dogodilo

As far as we can tell,

Koliko znamo,

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

časnici su stvarno mislili da imaju jak slučaj protiv Dreyfusa.

Which makes you wonder:

Zbog čega vam dođe da se zapitate:

What does it say about the human mind

Što to govori o ljudskom umu

that we can find such paltry evidence

da možemo smatrati takav loš dokaz

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

dovoljno uvjerljivim da se osudi čovjeka?

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

Dakle, ovo je primjer onoga što znanstvenici zovu "motivirano rasuđivanje"

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

To je pojava u kojoj naši podsvjesni motivi,

our desires and fears,

naše želje i strahovi

shape the way we interpret information.

oblikuju način na koji tumačimo informacije.

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

Neke informacije, neke ideje čine se kao naši saveznici.

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

Želimo da pobjede. Želimo ih braniti.

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

A druge informacije ili ideje su neprijatelj

and we want to shoot them down.

i želimo ih upucati.

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

Zato "motivirano rasuđivanje" nazivam vojničkim načinom razmišljanja.

Probably most of you have never persecuted

Vjerojatno većina vas nikad nije progonila

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

francusko-židovskog časnika zbog veleizdaje.

I assume,

Pretpostavljam,

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

ali možda pratite sportove ili politiku pa ste mogli primijetiti

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

da, kada sudac presudi da je vaša ekipa napravila prekršaj,

for example,

na primjer,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

vrlo ste motivirani da nađete razloge zašto je u krivu.

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

Ali ako presudi da je druga ekipa napravila prekršaj -- odlično!

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

To je dobra odluka, nećemo je pobliže preispitivati.

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

Ili možda ste čitali članak ili istraživanje

that examined some controversial policy,

koji proučavaju neku kontroverznu politiku,

like capital punishment.

kao što je smrtna kazna.

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

Kao što su istraživači prikazali,

if you support capital punishment

ako podupirete smrtnu kaznu

and the study shows that it's not effective,

i istraživanje pokaže da ona nije djelotvorna,

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

onda ste vrlo motivirani da nađete razloge

why the study was poorly designed.

zbog kojih je istraživanje loše provedeno.

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

Ali ako prikaže da smrtna kazna djeluje,

it's a good study.

to je dobro istraživanje.

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

I obrnuto: ako ne podupirete smrtnu kaznu, ista stvar.

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

Naše rasuđivanje je pod jakim utjecajem, nesvjesno

by which side we want to win.

ovisno o tome za koju stranu želimo da pobijedi.

And this is ubiquitous.

I to je sveprisutno.

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

Ono oblikuje kako razmišljamo o svojem zdravlju, našim vezama,

how we decide how to vote,

kako odlučujemo glasovati,

what we consider fair or ethical.

što smatramo da je pravedno ili etično.

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

Što me najviše straši u vezi s motiviranim rasuđivanjem

or soldier mindset,

ili vojničkim načinom rasuđivanja

is how unconscious it is.

jest koliko je nesvjesno.

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

Možemo misliti da smo objektivni ili pravedni

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

i još uvijek uništiti život nevinog čovjeka.

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

Međutim, na Dreyfusovu sreću, njegova priča još nije gotova.

This is Colonel Picquart.

Ovo je pukovnik Picquart.

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

On je još jedan visoki časnik u francuskoj vojsci.

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

I kao većina ljudi, pretpostavio je da je Dreyfus kriv.

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

Kao i većina ljudi u vojci, bio je barem ležerno antisemitist.

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

Ali u jednom trenutku Picquart je počeo sumnjati:

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

"Što ako smo svi u krivu u vezi s Dreyfusom?"

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

Ono što se dogodilo jest da je pronašao dokaze

that the spying for Germany had continued,

da se špijuniranje za Njemačku nastavilo,

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

čak i nakon što je Dreyfus bio u zatvoru.

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

Otkrio je i da je drugi časnik u vojsci

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

imao rukopis koji savršeno odgovara dopisu

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

bolje nego Dreyfusov rukopis.

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

Pa je odnio svoja otkrića svojim nadređenima,

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

ali na njegovo zaprepaštenje, oni ili nisu marili

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

ili su izmislili razrađene racionalizacije da bi objasnili njegova saznanja,

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

poput, "Sve što si dokazao, Picquart, jest da postoji još jedan špijun

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

koji je naučio oponašati Dreyfusov rukopis

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

i on je nastavio špijunirati nakon što je Dreyfus otišao.

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

Ali Dreyfus je i dalje kriv."

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

Na kraju, Picquartu je uspjelo osloboditi Dreyfusa.

But it took him 10 years,

Ali trebalo mu je 10 godina

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

i dio tog vremena on je sam bio u zatvoru

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

zbog nelojalnosti vojsci.

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

Mnogo ljudi smatra da Picquart ne može stvarno biti junak ove priče

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

jer je bio antisemitist i to je loše, s čime se slažem.

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

Ali osobno, za mene, činjenica da je Picquart bio antisemitist

actually makes his actions more admirable,

zapravo njegova djela čini zadivljujućima

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

jer je imao jednake predrasude, jednake razloge da bude pristran

as his fellow officers,

kao njegovi kolege časnici,

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

ali je njegova motivacija da sazna istinu i podrži je prevladala sve to

So to me,

Pa za mene,

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

Picquart je primjer za ono što nazivam "izviđačkim načinom razmišljanja".

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

To je poticaj da ideja ne pobijedi niti izgubi,

but just to see what's really there

nego da vidite čega zaista ima

as honestly and accurately as you can,

što je iskrenije i točnije moguće,

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

čak i ako nije lijepo ili povoljno ili ugodno.

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

U pogledu ovog načina razmišljanja sam vrlo strastvena.

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

Provela sam posljednjih par godina proučavajući i pokušavajući shvatiti što

what causes scout mindset.

uzrokuje izviđački način razmišljanja.

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

Zašto su neki ljudi, barem ponekad

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

sposobni prevladati svoje predrasude, pristranost i motive

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

i samo pokušati vidjeti činjenice i dokaze

as objectively as they can?

što je objektivnije moguće?

And the answer is emotional.

I odgovor je u emocijama.

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

Baš kao što je vojniči način razmišljanja ukorijenjen u emocijama,

like defensiveness or tribalism,

poput obrambenosti ili plemenske pripadnosti, i

scout mindset is, too.

izviđački način razmišljanja

It's just rooted in different emotions.

ukorijenjen je u različitim emocijama.

For example, scouts are curious.

Na primjer, izviđači su znatiželjni

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

Vjerojatnije će reći da osjećaju ugodu

when they learn new information

kada nauče nove informacije

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

ili potrebu da riješe zagonetku.

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

Vjerojatnije je da će biti zainteresirani kada naiđu na nešto

that contradicts their expectations.

što je suprotno njihovim očekivanjima.

Scouts also have different values.

Izviđači imaju i različite vrijednosti.

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

Vjerojatnije će reći da misle da je kreposno

to test your own beliefs,

preispitivati svoja uvjerenja

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

i vjerojatno neće reći da se netko tko promijeni mišljenje

seems weak.

čini slabim.

And above all, scouts are grounded,

Povrh svega, izviđači stoje na zemlji,

which means their self-worth as a person

što znači da njihovo samopoštovanje

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

nije povezano s tim koliko su u pravu ili u krivu u vezi s određenom temom.

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

Pa mogu vjerovati da smrtna kazna djeluje.

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

Ako istraživanja pokažu da to nije tako, mogu reći,

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

"Hm, izgleda da sam bio u krivu. To ne znači da sam loš ili glup."

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

Ovaj skup osobina je ono što su istraživači otkrili --

and I've also found anecdotally --

a i ja sam otkrila iz anegdota --

predicts good judgment.

da predviđa dobro rasuđivanje.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

A ključna pouka koju vam želim prenijeti o ovim osobinama

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

jest da se ne odnose ponajprije na to koliko ste pametni

or about how much you know.

ili koliko znate.

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

Zapravo, one nisu uopće u korelaciji s IQ-om.

They're about how you feel.

U vezi su s onim kako se osjećate.

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

Postoji citat Saint-Exupérya kojem se stalno vraćam.

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

On je autor "Malog princa".

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

Rekao je, "Ako želiš sagraditi brod,

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

nemoj okupiti ljude da skupljaju drvo i davati im naredbe

and distribute the work.

i raspodijeliti posao.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

Umjesto toga, podučite ih da žude za velikim i beskrajnim morem."

In other words, I claim,

Drugim riječima, smatram da,

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

ako zaista želimo poboljšati naše rasuđivanje kao pojedinaca

and as societies,

i kao društva,

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

ono što najviše trebamo nije poduka o logici

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

ili govorništvu ili vjerojatnosti ili ekonomiji,

even though those things are quite valuable.

iako su te stvari vrlo vrijedne,

But what we most need to use those principles well

Ali ono što nam najviše treba da dobro iskoristimo ta načela je

is scout mindset.

izviđački način razmišljanja.

We need to change the way we feel.

Moramo promijeniti kako se osjećamo.

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

Moramo naučiti kako da se osjećamo ponosnima umjesto posramljenima

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

kada primijetimo da smo u vezi s nečime bili u krivu.

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

Moramo naučiti kako da budemo zainteresirani umjesto obrambeni

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

kada naiđemo na informacije koje su suprotne našim uvjerenjima.

So the question I want to leave you with is:

Pa je pitanje s kojim vas želim ostaviti:

What do you most yearn for?

Za čime najviše čeznete?

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

Čeznete li za obranom svojih uvjerenja?

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

Ili čeznete za tim da vidite svijet što je jasnije moguće?

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)