Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

譯者: Nan Liu 審譯者: Joyce Chen

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

我想請你們想像一下

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

你們是一位身處激烈戰爭的士兵。

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

也許你們是一位羅馬步兵， 或者是一位中世紀的弓箭手，

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

或者是一位祖魯武士。

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

不管你身處何時何地， 有一些事情是不變的。

Your adrenaline is elevated,

你的腎上腺素都會上升，

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

而且你的行為來自這些 根深蒂固的本能反應，

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

建立在你需要保護你自己 和你所屬的一方之上，

and to defeat the enemy.

並且擊敗敵人的本能反應。

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

現在，我想請你們想像自己 扮演一個完全不同的角色，

that of the scout.

一個偵查員的角色。

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

偵查員的任務不是攻擊或者防守。

The scout's job is to understand.

偵查員的任務是理解。

The scout is the one going out,

偵查員需要走出去，

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

畫出地形圖，辨認出潛在的障礙物。

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

偵查員可能希望知道，比如，有一座橋

in a convenient location across a river.

在河上一個近便的位置。

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

但最重要的是，

偵查員想要知道那裡真的有什麼，

as accurately as possible.

越準確越好。

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

在現實的軍隊中， 士兵和偵查員都很重要。

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

但是你也可以把這兩種角色 想像成兩種心態──

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

用來比喻在日常生活中，我們所有人

in our daily lives.

如何處理信息和想法。

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

我今天要證明的是做出良好的判斷，

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

準確的預測，良好的決定，

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

大部分都是關於你在哪個心態中。

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

為了用情節說明這些心態，

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

我將把你們帶回到 19 世紀的法國，

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

在那裡，這張看起來無害的紙

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

引發了歷史上最大的政治醜聞之一。

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

它是在 1894 年 由法國總參謀部的官員發現的。

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

它被撕碎了，丟在廢紙簍裡，

but when they pieced it back together,

但是他們把它一片片復原，

they discovered that someone in their ranks

他們發現他們軍階中的某個人

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

過去一直把軍事秘密賣給德國。

So they launched a big investigation,

所以他們進行了一場全面調查，

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

然後他們的猜疑 很快聚焦到這個人身上，

Alfred Dreyfus.

阿爾弗萊德·德萊弗斯。

He had a sterling record,

他有很優秀的記錄，

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

過去沒有犯罪歷史， 沒有他們所能指出的動機。

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

但是德萊弗斯是軍隊裡 在這個軍階上唯一的猶太人軍官，

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

不幸的是，這一次 法國軍隊高度反對猶太人。

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

他們把德萊弗斯的字跡 和那張紙上的字跡進行比較，

and concluded that it was a match,

然後得出結論，字跡匹配，

even though outside professional handwriting experts

儘管軍營外專業的字跡專家

were much less confident in the similarity,

對這個相似性沒有那麼大的把握，

but never mind that.

但是不用在意他們的看法。

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

他們去了德萊弗斯的 公寓並進行搜查，

looking for any signs of espionage.

尋找任何諜報活動的痕跡。

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

他們搜查了他的文件， 但是他們什麼都沒找到。

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

這只是讓他們更加確信 德萊弗斯不僅有罪，

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

而且很狡詐，

因為很明顯他藏好了所有的證據

before they had managed to get to it.

在他們成功找到它們之前。

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

然後，他們去查他的個人歷史

for any incriminating details.

尋找任何表明他有罪的細節。

They talked to his teachers,

他們和他的老師們談話，

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

他們發現他在學校學習過外語，

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

這明顯表明一種

未來想要與外國政府密謀的想法。

later in life.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

他的老師們還說德萊弗斯 因為他良好的記憶力而出名，

which was highly suspicious, right?

這十分可疑，對吧？

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

要知道，因為一名間諜 必須記住很多事情。

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

所以這個案件開始審理， 然後德萊弗斯被判有罪。

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

之後，他們把他帶到了公共廣場

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

依照慣例取下他制服上的勳章，

and broke his sword in two.

然後把他的劍折成兩半。

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

這個被叫作德萊弗斯的屈辱。

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

他們把他終身監禁，

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

關在一個恰好叫做惡魔島的島上，

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

它是一個鄰近南美洲 海岸線的貧瘠礁島。

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

所以他去了那裡， 在那裡一個人度日，

writing letters and letters to the French government

寫了許許多多封信給法國政府，

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

請求他們再次審理他的案子， 好讓他們可以意識到他的清白。

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

但是整體而言， 法國認為這件事結束了。

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

對我而言，德萊弗斯事件有趣的一點

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

是這個問題：為什麼官員們那麼確信

that Dreyfus was guilty.

德萊弗斯是有罪的。

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

我的意思是，你們甚至可能想，

他們在誣陷他， 他們故意作偽證誣陷他。

that they were intentionally framing him.

But historians don't think that's what happened.

但是歷史學家認為那不是事實。

As far as we can tell,

我們目前能確定的是，

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

官員們真的認為

對德萊弗斯不利的判決 是理由充分的。

Which makes you wonder:

這會讓你想知道：

What does it say about the human mind

這件事和人類思想有什麼關係，

that we can find such paltry evidence

我們可以認為如此微不足道的證據

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

足夠有說服力來判定一個人有罪？

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

嗯，這就是科學家稱作 「動機性推理」的一個案例。

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

在動機性推理這個情況下， 我們無意識的動機，

our desires and fears,

我們的渴望和恐懼，

shape the way we interpret information.

影響了我們解讀信息的方式。

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

一些信息、一些想法 像是我們的盟友。

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

我們想要它們勝利。 我們想要捍衛它們。

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

其它的信息或者想法是我們的敵人，

and we want to shoot them down.

我們想要把它們打倒。

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

這就是為什麼我把 動機性推理稱作「士兵心態」。

Probably most of you have never persecuted

我想，可能你們中的大多數人從未

迫害過一名法國猶太血統軍官叛國罪，

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

I assume,

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

但是也許你們曾關心運動或者政治， 所以你們可能曾經注意到

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

比如，當裁判判定 你的球隊犯規的時候，

for example,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

你就有高度動機， 去找裁判誤判的理由。

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

但是如果裁判判定 另一支球隊犯規──太棒了！

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

那是一個很好的判決， 我們不要太過追究。

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

或者，也許你讀過 一篇文章或是一份研究，

that examined some controversial policy,

是關於一些有爭議的政策，

like capital punishment.

比如死刑。

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

正如研究人員所證實的，

if you support capital punishment

如果你支持死刑

and the study shows that it's not effective,

研究卻顯示死刑無效，

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

那麼你就有高度動機， 想找出所有的理由

why the study was poorly designed.

說明為什麼這個研究設計得不好。

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

但是如果它表明死刑有效，

it's a good study.

太好了，它就是一份好的研究。

反之亦然：如果你不支持死刑，

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

同樣的反應。

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

我們的判斷，

在毫無意識的情況下，很強烈地被

by which side we want to win.

我們希望獲勝的一方影響著。

And this is ubiquitous.

這是普遍存在的。

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

這決定了我們如何看待 我們的健康，我們的人際關係，

how we decide how to vote,

我們如何決定怎樣投票，

what we consider fair or ethical.

我們認為什麼是公平或者道德。

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

對我而言，動機性推理， 或者是士兵心態最可怕的地方，

or soldier mindset,

is how unconscious it is.

是它有多麼不受意識控制。

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

我們可能認為我們客觀公正，

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

但最後仍然破壞了一個 無辜的人的生活。

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

然而，對德萊弗斯而言， 幸運的是，他的事件沒有結束。

This is Colonel Picquart.

這是皮卡爾上校。

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

他是法國軍隊中另一位高級官員，

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

像大多數人一樣， 他假定德萊弗斯是有罪的。

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

同時也像軍隊中的大多數人一樣， 他至少有無意的反猶太情緒。

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

但是在某一刻，皮卡爾開始懷疑：

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

「如果我們對於德萊弗斯的判定 都錯了怎麼辦？」

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

接下來發生的是，他發現了證據

that the spying for Germany had continued,

德國間諜行為一直持續，

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

即使在德萊弗斯入獄以後。

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

他也發現了軍隊中的另一位軍官

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

有著和那張紙上的字跡 非常吻合的字跡，

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

比德萊弗斯的字跡還要接近。

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

然後他把這些發現帶到他的上級面前，

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

但是讓他失望的是， 他們若非不在意、

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

就是給出精心變造的、 合理化的理由來解釋他的發現，

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

比如，「嗯，你所展示的一切 只能證明還有一個間諜，

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

他學會了如何模仿德萊弗斯的字跡，

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

他在德萊弗斯離開後 接替了他的任務。

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

但是德萊弗斯仍然有罪。」

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

最終，皮卡爾成功幫助 德萊弗斯洗刷罪名。

But it took him 10 years,

但是這花了他 10 年的時間，

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

而且這期間他自己有一部分時間 也是在監獄中度過的，

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

因為對軍隊不忠的罪名。

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

很多人認為皮卡爾不能真的 成為這個事件的英雄，

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

因為他反猶太，這很不好， 我也同意這一點。

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

但是，就我個人而言， 皮卡爾反猶太的事實，

actually makes his actions more admirable,

實際上讓他的行為更令人佩服，

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

因為他有相同的偏見， 相同的原因讓自己變得不公正，

as his fellow officers,

和他的同僚一樣，

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

但是他尋找真相 並堅守真相的動力勝過一切。

So to me,

所以對我而言，

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

皮卡爾是一個具有我稱作 「偵查員心態」的典型。

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

不是一種要讓一種想法獲勝、 或者是另一種想法輸掉的慾望，

but just to see what's really there

而是僅僅發現那裡真的有什麼，

as honestly and accurately as you can,

越誠實越準確越好，

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

即使那不美麗、不方便、不愉快。

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

這種心態是我個人很有興趣的。

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

我用過去幾年的時間 研究並且試著發現

what causes scout mindset.

是什麼導致了偵查員心態。

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

為什麼有些人，至少有些時候，

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

可以不顧他們自己 先入為主的觀念，偏見和動機，

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

只是以一種盡可能客觀的方式， 尋找事實和證據？

as objectively as they can?

And the answer is emotional.

答案就是情緒。

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

就像士兵心態根植於情緒中，

like defensiveness or tribalism,

比如防禦心或者同族意識，

scout mindset is, too.

偵查員心態也是這樣。

It's just rooted in different emotions.

它只是根植於不同的情緒中。

For example, scouts are curious.

比如，偵查員有好奇心。

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

他們更可能感到快樂，

when they learn new information

因為得到新的信息、 或者是一種解決疑惑的渴望，

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

他們更可能感到有興趣， 當他們遇到一些

that contradicts their expectations.

與他們預期相反的事情。

Scouts also have different values.

偵查員也有不同的價值觀。

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

他們更可能說他們認為

檢驗你自己的信念 是品德高尚的表現，

to test your own beliefs,

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

他們比較不會說改變主意的人

seems weak.

看起來軟弱。

And above all, scouts are grounded,

最重要的是，偵查員腳踏實地，

which means their self-worth as a person

這意味著他們 作為一個人的自我價值，

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

與他們對於任何話題的立場 是多麼正確或是多麼錯誤無關。

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

所以他們可能認為死刑有效。

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

如果研究表明死刑無效， 他們可能會說，

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

「呃，看來我可能錯了。 這不意味著我很糟糕或者愚蠢。」

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

這些特質的集合是研究人員發現的──

and I've also found anecdotally --

也是我通過軼事發現的──

predicts good judgment.

可以預測良好判斷力的特質。

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

對於那些特質， 我想留給你們最關鍵的一點，

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

就是它們與你有多聰明，

or about how much you know.

或者你知道多少無關。

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

事實上，它們與智商 根本沒多少聯繫。

They're about how you feel.

它們和你的感覺有關。

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

有一條我經常引用的語錄， 聖修伯里說的。

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

他是《小王子》的作者。

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

他說：「如果你想造一艘船，

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

不要號召你的工人 去收集木頭，發號命令，

and distribute the work.

然後分配工作。

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

反之，要教給他們對 無邊無際的大海的渴望。」

In other words, I claim,

換句話而言，我會說，

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

如果我們真的想要 提高我們的判斷力，作為個體

and as societies,

並且作為社會群體，

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

我們迫切需要的不是在邏輯方面

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

或是雄辯、概率、 經濟方面更多的指導，

even though those things are quite valuable.

儘管那些東西都很有價值。

But what we most need to use those principles well

要充分利用那些原則，我們最需要的

is scout mindset.

是偵查員心態。

We need to change the way we feel.

我們需要改變我們感覺事物的方式。

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

我們需要學會如何感到 驕傲而不是羞愧，

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

當我們意識到我們可能 做錯什麼事的時候。

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

我們需要學會如何感到 有興趣而不是有防禦心，

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

當我們遇到一些與我們信念 相反的信息的時候。

So the question I want to leave you with is:

所以我想要留給你們的問題就是：

What do you most yearn for?

你們最想要什麼？

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

你們想要捍衛你們的信念？

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

還是你們想要盡可能 清晰地看這個世界？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）