Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Traductor: Tania Domingo Moreno Revisor: Ciro Gomez

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

Me gustaría que imaginaran

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

que son soldados en el fragor de la batalla.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

Un soldado romano o un arquero medieval

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

o quizás un guerrero zulú.

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

Hay algunas constantes, independientemente del tiempo y lugar.

Your adrenaline is elevated,

Su adrenalina está alta

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

y sus acciones surgen de unos reflejos muy arraigados

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

fijados para protegerlos a Uds. y a su equipo,

and to defeat the enemy.

y para derrotar al enemigo.

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

Me gustaría que se imaginaran en un papel muy diferente ahora,

that of the scout.

el del explorador.

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

El trabajo del explorador no es atacar ni defender.

The scout's job is to understand.

Su trabajo es comprender.

The scout is the one going out,

El explorador es quien sale

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

reconoce el terreno, identifica posibles obstáculos.

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

Quizás desea averiguar si hay un puente

in a convenient location across a river.

que convenientemente cruce un río.

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

Pero, sobre todo, el explorador quiere saber qué hay

as accurately as possible.

con la mayor exactitud.

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

En un ejército real

son esenciales tanto el soldado como el explorador.

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

Pero también pueden ver estos papeles como actitudes.

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

Una metáfora sobre cómo procesamos la información

in our daily lives.

en nuestra vida cotidiana.

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

Lo que voy a argumentar hoy es que tener buen juicio

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

predecir con precisión, decidir correctamente

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

depende de qué actitud se tenga.

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

Para ilustrar cómo funcionan estas actitudes

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

voy a llevarlos a Francia del siglo XIX

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

donde este papel, aparentemente inocuo,

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

provocó uno de los mayores escándalos políticos.

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

Lo descubrieron en 1894 unos oficiales del Estado Mayor francés.

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

Estaba roto en una papelera

but when they pieced it back together,

pero cuando lo recompusieron

they discovered that someone in their ranks

descubrieron que alguien de sus filas

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

vendía secretos militares a Alemania.

So they launched a big investigation,

Iniciaron una gran investigación

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

y las sospechas cayeron rápidamente sobre este hombre:

Alfred Dreyfus.

Alfred Dreyfus.

He had a sterling record,

Su expediente era ejemplar.

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

No había cometido delitos ni tenía motivos aparentes.

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

Pero Dreyfus era el único oficial judío en el ejército.

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

Y, por desgracia, en esa época el ejército francés era muy antisemita.

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

Compararon su caligrafía con la del informe

and concluded that it was a match,

y decidieron que coincidía

even though outside professional handwriting experts

aunque expertos grafólogos externos

were much less confident in the similarity,

no estaban tan seguros del parecido,

but never mind that.

pero eso daba igual.

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

Registraron el apartamento de Dreyfus

looking for any signs of espionage.

en busca de pruebas de espionaje.

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

Revisaron sus archivos y no encontraron nada.

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

Eso les convenció más de que Dreyfus no solo era culpable

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

sino también astuto, pues había escondido toda la evidencia

before they had managed to get to it.

antes de que ellos la encontraran.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

Luego inspeccionaron sus antecedentes personales

for any incriminating details.

en busca de detalles que lo inculparan.

They talked to his teachers,

Hablaron con sus profesores

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

supieron que había estudiado idiomas

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

lo que mostraba un deseo de conspirar con gobiernos extranjeros

later in life.

en un futuro.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

Sus profesores también dijeron que destacaba por su buena memoria

which was highly suspicious, right?

lo cual era muy sospechoso, ¿no?

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

Porque un espía debe recordar muchas cosas.

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

El caso se llevó a juicio y declararon a Dreyfus culpable.

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

Luego lo trasladaron a una plaza pública

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

y le quitaron la insignia del uniforme

and broke his sword in two.

y quebraron su espada en dos.

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

Lo llamaron "La Degradación de Dreyfus".

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

Lo condenaron a cadena perpetua

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

en la bien llamada Isla del Diablo

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

una roca inhóspita frente a la costa de Sudamérica.

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

Así que allí fue y allí paso sus días solo

writing letters and letters to the French government

escribiendo al gobierno francés

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

rogando que reabrieran su caso para que se demostrara su inocencia.

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

En general, Francia lo daba por cerrado.

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

Del Caso Dreyfus, me resulta muy interesante

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

que los oficiales estuvieran tan convencidos

that Dreyfus was guilty.

de la culpabilidad de Dreyfus.

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

Podría asumirse que le tendieron una trampa

that they were intentionally framing him.

que querían incriminarlo a propósito.

But historians don't think that's what happened.

Pero los historiadores no lo creen.

As far as we can tell,

Hasta donde sabemos

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

los oficiales creían de verdad que el caso contra Dreyfus era claro.

Which makes you wonder:

Lo que hace pensar:

What does it say about the human mind

¿Qué nos dice de la mente humana

that we can find such paltry evidence

que podamos encontrar en pruebas ridículas

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

la contundencia para condenar a un hombre?

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

Es lo que los científicos llaman "razonamiento motivado".

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

Nuestras motivaciones subconscientes

our desires and fears,

nuestros deseos y miedos

shape the way we interpret information.

se forman según interpretamos la información.

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

Vemos como aliadas a ciertas informaciones o ideas.

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

Queremos que ganen, queremos defenderlas.

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

Y otras son el enemigo

and we want to shoot them down.

y queremos vencerlas.

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

Por eso al razonamiento motivado lo llamo "actitud de soldado".

Probably most of you have never persecuted

Probablemente Uds. nunca habrían condenado

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

por alta traición a un oficial judío francés.

I assume,

Supongo.

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

Pero quizás les gusten los deportes o la política

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

y cuando el árbitro pita falta a su equipo,

for example,

por ejemplo,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

se sienten muy motivados a razonar que se equivoca.

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

Pero si pita falta al otro equipo... ¡Estupendo!

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

Lo ha hecho bien, no hace falta revisarlo.

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

O quizás hayan leído un artículo o estudio

that examined some controversial policy,

que analiza alguna política polémica

like capital punishment.

como la pena de muerte.

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

Y, como han probado los investigadores,

if you support capital punishment

si apoyan la pena de muerte

and the study shows that it's not effective,

y el estudio demuestra que no es eficaz

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

estarán motivados a encontrar

why the study was poorly designed.

que el estudio era deficiente.

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

Pero si demuestra que la pena de muerte funciona

it's a good study.

es un buen estudio.

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

Y lo mismo si no apoyan la pena de muerte.

Inconscientemente, nuestro juicio se ve influido

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

by which side we want to win.

por el lado que queremos que gane.

And this is ubiquitous.

Y es algo general.

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

Afecta la forma como vemos nuestra salud, nuestras relaciones,

how we decide how to vote,

cómo decidimos cómo votar,

what we consider fair or ethical.

qué consideramos justo o ético.

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

Lo que más me asusta del razonamiento motivado,

or soldier mindset,

o la actitud de soldado,

is how unconscious it is.

es lo inconsciente que es.

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

Podemos creer que somos objetivos e imparciales

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

y acabar arruinando la vida de un hombre inocente.

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

Por suerte para Dreyfus, su historia no acabó ahí.

This is Colonel Picquart.

Este es el Coronel Picquart.

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

Otro oficial de algo rango del ejército francés.

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

Como la mayoría, dio por hecho que Dreyfus era culpable.

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

Y, como la mayoría, era casualmente antisemita.

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

Pero en un momento, Picquard comenzó a sospechar:

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

"¿Y si nos equivocamos con Dreyfus?".

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

Resulta que encontró pruebas

that the spying for Germany had continued,

de que habían seguido espiando para Alemania

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

tras meter a Dreyfus en prisión.

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

También descubrió que otro oficial del ejército

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

tenía una caligrafía que encajaba con la del informe

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

mucho más que la de Dreyfus.

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

Llevó las pruebas a sus superiores.

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

Pero, a su pesar, o no les importaba

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

o inventaban razones que explicaban sus hallazgos

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

como "Solo nos demuestras, Picquard, que hay otro espía

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

que ha aprendido a imitar la letra de Dreyfus

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

y ha relevado a Dreyfus como espía.

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

Pero Dreyfus es culpable".

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

Al final, Picquart consiguió que absolvieran a Dreyfus.

But it took him 10 years,

Pero le llevó diez años

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

y durante ese tiempo él mismo estuvo en prisión

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

por deslealtad al ejército.

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

Muchos piensan que Picquart no puede ser el héroe de la historia

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

porque era antisemita, y estoy de acuerdo en que eso es malo.

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

Pero, personalmente, el hecho de que fuera antisemita

actually makes his actions more admirable,

hace más admirables sus acciones

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

porque tenía tantos prejuicios y razones para ser parcial

as his fellow officers,

como sus compañeros oficiales.

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

Pero su motivación para encontrar la verdad y defenderla triunfó por encima de todo.

So to me,

Así que para mí

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

Picquart es un ejemplo de lo que llamo "actitud de explorador".

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

Es el deseo, no de que gane o pierda una idea,

but just to see what's really there

sino de ver lo que realmente hay

as honestly and accurately as you can,

de la forma más honesta y precisa posible

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

aunque no sea bonito, o conveniente o agradable.

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

Esta actitud es la que me apasiona.

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

Y he pasado los últimos años investigando e intentando averiguar

what causes scout mindset.

qué provoca la actitud de explorador.

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

¿Por qué algunas personas, al menos en alguna ocasión,

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

son capaces de dejar atrás sus prejuicios y motivaciones

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

y simplemente ver los hechos y pruebas

as objectively as they can?

lo más objetivamente posible?

And the answer is emotional.

La respuesta es emocional.

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

La actitud de soldado está conectada con las emociones

like defensiveness or tribalism,

como la defensa o el tribalismo.

También lo está la actitud de explorador.

scout mindset is, too.

It's just rooted in different emotions.

Aunque son emociones distintas.

For example, scouts are curious.

Por ejemplo, los exploradores son curiosos.

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

Podrían decir que les gusta

when they learn new information

aprender nueva información

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

o resolver un acertijo.

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

Suelen sentirse intrigados cuando se encuentran con algo

that contradicts their expectations.

que contradice sus expectativas.

Scouts also have different values.

Los exploradores tienen valores diferentes.

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

Podrían decir que consideran una virtud

to test your own beliefs,

poner a prueba sus creencias

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

y no dirán que quien cambia de opinión

seems weak.

es débil.

And above all, scouts are grounded,

Los exploradores son humildes

which means their self-worth as a person

de forma que su autoestima

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

no está ligada a si tienen o no razón en cualquier tema.

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

Pueden creer que la pena de muerte funciona.

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

Si sale un estudio que demuestre que no, pueden decir:

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

"Parece que estoy equivocado. No significa que sea malo o estúpido".

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

Estos rasgos son los que, como han descubierto los investigadores,

and I've also found anecdotally --

y yo también casualmente,

predicts good judgment.

predicen el buen juicio.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

Y la clave que quiero darles sobre estas características

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

es que no están basadas en cuán listos son

or about how much you know.

o en cuánto saben.

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

De hecho, no están muy relacionadas con el C.I.

They're about how you feel.

Están basadas en lo que sienten.

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

Hay una cita de Saint-Exupéry que me viene siempre a la mente.

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

Es el autor de "El Principito".

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

Dijo: "Si quieres construir un barco

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

no empieces por buscar madera, dar órdenes

and distribute the work.

y distribuir el trabajo.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

En su lugar, enseña a los hombres a anhelar la inmensidad infinita del mar".

In other words, I claim,

En otras palabras, declaro,

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

que si queremos mejorar nuestro juicio como individuos

and as societies,

y como sociedad

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

no necesitamos más educación en lógica

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

retórica, probabilidad, economía,

even though those things are quite valuable.

aunque estas sean muy valiosas.

But what we most need to use those principles well

Lo que más necesitamos para usar bien esos principios

is scout mindset.

es una actitud de explorador.

We need to change the way we feel.

Cambiar cómo nos sentimos.

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

Aprender a sentirnos orgullosos en lugar de avergonzados

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

cuando nos damos cuenta de que estábamos equivocados.

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

Aprender a sentirnos intrigados en lugar de defensivos

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

cuando encontramos información que contradice nuestras creencias.

So the question I want to leave you with is:

La pregunta que les quiero plantear es:

What do you most yearn for?

¿Qué es lo que más ansían?

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

¿Ansían defender sus propias creencias?

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

¿O ansían ver el mundo lo más claramente posible?

Thank you.

Gracias.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)