Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Translator: Hafizh Alfarisi Reviewer: Maria Nainggolan

Bayangkanlah sesaat jika kau prajurit di tengah pertempuran sengit.

Bisa jadi kau infantri Romawi atau pemanah abad pertengahan

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

atau bisa pula kesatria Zulu.

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

Terlepas waktu dan tempatmu, ada beberapa hal yang sama.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

Adrenalinmu melonjak

dan tindakanmu didasarkan pada refleks yang tertanam begitu dalam.

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

Refleks yang terbentuk atas kebutuhan untuk melindungi diri dan pihakmu

Your adrenaline is elevated,

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

dan untuk mengalahkan musuh.

Sekarang, aku mau kau bayangkan memainkan peran sangat berbeda,

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

yaitu pengintai.

and to defeat the enemy.

Tugas pengintai bukan untuk menyerang atau melindungi.

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

Tugas pengintai adalah untuk memahami.

Pengintai menjelajah ke luar,

that of the scout.

memetakan lokasi, menandai kemungkinan rintangan,

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

The scout's job is to understand.

dan pengintai mungkin berharap menemukan, sebut saja,

The scout is the one going out,

jembatan di tempat strategis di seberang sungai.

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

Yang terpenting, pengintai ingin tahu yang sebenarnya di sana seakurat mungkin.

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

Dalam pasukan aslinya, prajurit dan pengintai sama-sama penting.

in a convenient location across a river.

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

Namun, kau juga bisa mengartikan tiap peran ini sebagai pola pikir --

as accurately as possible.

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

sebuah metafora akan bagaimana kita semua menyaring informasi dan ide

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

di kehidupan sehari-hari kita.

Yang ingin kusampaikan sekarang adalah memiliki penilaian yang baik,

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

membuat prakiraan akurat, membuat keputusan tepat,

in our daily lives.

sebagian besar tergantung pada pola pikir mana yang dipakai.

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

Untuk menjelaskan cara pola pikir ini bekerja,

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

aku akan membawamu kembali ke Prancis abad ke-19

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

di mana selembar kertas yang tampak tak berbahaya ini

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

menjadi salah satu skandal politik terbesar dalam sejarah.

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

Kertas ini ditemukan pada 1894 oleh para perwira dari staf umum Prancis.

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

Kondisinya sobek dalam keranjang sampah kertas.

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

Namun saat disatukan kembali, mereka sadar seseorang di pangkat mereka

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

telah menjual rahasia militer ke Jerman.

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

Jadi, mereka mengadakan penyelidikan besar

but when they pieced it back together,

dan kecurigaan mereka segera jatuh kepada pria ini,

they discovered that someone in their ranks

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

Alfred Dreyfus.

So they launched a big investigation,

Dia punya rekam jejak bagus.

Tidak ada riwayat pelanggaran, tidak ada motif yang bisa mereka temukan.

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

Namun, Dreyfus cuma satu-satunya perwira Yahudi di pangkat itu di militer.

Alfred Dreyfus.

He had a sterling record,

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

Sayangnya pada saat itu, Militer Prancis sangat antisemitisme.

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

Mereka membandingkan tulisan tangan Dreyfus dengan memo itu

dan menyimpulkan keduanya cocok.

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

Meski ahli tulisan tangan profesional dari luar kurang yakin dengan kesamaannya,

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

mereka tidak memedulikannya.

and concluded that it was a match,

Mereka menggeledah apartemen Dreyfus, mencari tanda-tanda spionase.

even though outside professional handwriting experts

Mereka memeriksa berkas-berkasnya dan tidak menemukan apa pun.

were much less confident in the similarity,

Ini semakin meyakinkan mereka bila Dreyfus tak hanya bersalah,

but never mind that.

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

tetapi juga licik karena dia jelas telah menyembunyikan semua bukti

looking for any signs of espionage.

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

sebelum mereka berhasil mendapatkannya.

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

Lalu, mereka melihat catatan pribadinya untuk mencari hal-hal memberatkan,

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

bicara dengan para gurunya,

before they had managed to get to it.

mendapatinya pernah belajar bahasa-bahasa asing di sekolah.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

Itu jelas menunjukkan minat untuk berkomplot dengan pemerintah asing

for any incriminating details.

di kemudian hari.

They talked to his teachers,

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

Guru-gurunya juga berkata kalau Dreyfus dikenal punya ingatan bagus.

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

Itu membuatnya semakin mencurigakan, ’kan?

later in life.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

Sebab, mata-mata harus mengingat banyak hal.

Jadi, kasusnya dibawa ke pengadilan dan Dreyfus dinyatakan bersalah.

which was highly suspicious, right?

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

Setelahnya, mereka membawa Dreyfus ke alun-alun kota,

secara ritual mencopot lencana dari seragamnya,

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

dan mematahkan pedangnya.

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

Ini disebut Degradasi Dreyfus.

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

Dan mereka menghukumnya dengan penjara seumur hidup

di tempat yang sesuai namanya, Pulau Iblis,

and broke his sword in two.

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

tanah tandus di dekat pesisir Amerika Selatan.

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

Jadi, di sanalah dia, menghabiskan hari-harinya sendirian,

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

menulis surat demi surat kepada pemerintah Prancis

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

untuk meminta meninjau lagi kasusnya agar mereka sadar dia tak bersalah.

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

Namun garis besarnya, Prancis menganggap kasusnya selesai.

writing letters and letters to the French government

Satu hal yang sangat menarik bagiku dari kejadian Dreyfus

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

adalah pertanyaan mengapa para perwira begitu yakin kalau Dreyfus bersalah.

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

Kalian mungkin malah menyangka mereka menipunya.

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

Mereka sengaja menjebaknya.

Namun, para ahli sejarah tidak berpikir demikian.

that Dreyfus was guilty.

Yang bisa kupetik adalah

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

para perwira sungguh percaya bila fakta yang memberatkan Dreyfus sangat kuat.

that they were intentionally framing him.

Hal ini pun membuat kau bertanya:

But historians don't think that's what happened.

As far as we can tell,

Apa yang dijelaskannya tentang pikiran manusia

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

bila kita bisa menemukan sedikit bukti yang dapat menghukum seorang pria?

Which makes you wonder:

Inilah kasus yang para ilmuwan sebut “alasan motivasi”.

What does it say about the human mind

that we can find such paltry evidence

Ini adalah peristiwa di mana motivasi bawah sadar kita,

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

hasrat dan ketakutan kita, membentuk cara kita mengartikan informasi.

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

Beberapa informasi, beberapa ide, terasa seperti sekutu kita.

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

our desires and fears,

Kita mau mereka menang. Kita mau mempertahankan mereka.

shape the way we interpret information.

Dan informasi atau ide lain adalah musuh dan kita mau menembaknya mati.

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

Ini mengapa aku menyebut alasan motivasi sebagai “pola pikir prajurit”.

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

Mungkin sebagian besar dari kalian tidak pernah

and we want to shoot them down.

menganiaya perwira Prancis-Yahudi karena pengkhianatan negara,

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

kurasa.

Namun, mungkin kau mengikuti olahraga atau politik. Jadi, kau sudah tahu

Probably most of you have never persecuted

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

jika saat juri menilai timmu melakukan pelanggaran, misalnya,

I assume,

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

kau sangat termotivasi untuk menemukan alasan kenapa dia salah.

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

Namun, bila dia menilai tim lain melanggar, hebat!

Keputusan bagus. Jangan membahasnya lebih lanjut.

for example,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

Atau, mungkin kau membaca artikel atau studi

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

yang menyelidiki beberapa kebijakan kontroversi,

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

seperti hukuman mati.

Seperti yang telah ditunjukkan peneliti, jika kau mendukung hukuman mati

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

that examined some controversial policy,

dan studi itu memperlihatkan itu tidak efektif,

like capital punishment.

kau sangat termotivasi menemukan semua alasan

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

kenapa studi itu disusun sedemikian buruk.

if you support capital punishment

Jika studi menyebut hukuman mati bekerja, hebat! Studi itu bagus.

and the study shows that it's not effective,

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

Sebaliknya, jika kau tak mendukung hukuman mati, sama saja.

Penilaian kita tanpa sadar sangat dipengaruhi

why the study was poorly designed.

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

oleh pihak mana yang bagi kita pantas menang.

it's a good study.

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

Ini terjadi di mana-mana.

Ini membentuk cara kita berpikir akan kesehatan kita, hubungan kita,

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

bagaimana memberi suara, apa yang kita anggap adil atau etis.

by which side we want to win.

And this is ubiquitous.

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

Yang lebih menakutkan bagiku tentang alasan motivasi atau pola pikir prajurit

how we decide how to vote,

adalah tanpa sadarnya ini terjadi.

what we consider fair or ethical.

Kita bisa memandang diri kita objektif dan tak berat sebelah

sementara tetap menghancurkan hidup orang tak bersalah.

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

or soldier mindset,

is how unconscious it is.

Bagaimanapun, untungnya bagi Dreyfus, kisahnya belum berakhir.

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

Ini adalah Kolonel Picquart.

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

Dia perwira berpangkat tinggi lainnya di Militer Prancis.

Seperti kebanyakan orang, dia menganggap Dreyfus bersalah.

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

Juga seperti banyak orang di pasukan itu, dia setidaknya agak antisemitisme.

This is Colonel Picquart.

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

Namun pada suatu waktu, Picquart mulai curiga:

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

“Bagaimana jika kita semua salah soal Dreyfus?”

Yang terjadi adalah dia menemukan bukti

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

aksi mata-mata Jerman masih berlanjut, bahkan setelah Dreyfus dipenjara.

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

Dia juga menemukan perwira lain di pasukan itu

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

that the spying for Germany had continued,

dengan tulisan tangan yang sangat menyerupai memo itu,

lebih dari tulisan tangan Dreyfus.

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

Jadi dia membawa penemuannya ke para atasannya.

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

Namun sayang baginya, entah mereka tidak peduli

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

atau membuat rasionalisasi detail untuk menjelaskan temuannya,

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

seperti, “Kau sungguh menunjukkan, Picquart, kalau ada mata-mata lain

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

yang menguasai cara meniru tulisan tangan Dreyfus,

dan dia meneruskan tugas mata-mata setelah Dreyfus pergi.

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

Namun, Dreyfus tetap bersalah.”

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

Pada akhirnya, Picquart berhasil membebaskan Dreyfus.

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

Dia butuh waktu sepuluh tahun,

dan dalam periode itu, dia dijebloskan ke penjara

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

atas kejahatan tidak setia kepada pasukannya.

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

Banyak orang yang merasa Picquart tidak bisa dijadikan pahlawan cerita ini

But it took him 10 years,

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

karena antisemitismenya dan itu buruk, yang mana aku setuju.

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

Namun secara personal, kenyataan bahwa Picquart itu antisemitis

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

justru membuat tindakannya lebih bisa dikagumi.

Sebab, dia punya prasangka serupa, alasan serupa untuk jadi bias

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

seperti rekan perwiranya,

tetapi motivasinya mencari kebenaran dan menegakkannya meruntuhkan semua itu.

actually makes his actions more admirable,

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

Bagiku, Picquart adalah contoh nyata dari apa yang kusebut “pola pikir pengintai”.

as his fellow officers,

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

Ini dorongan agar tidak membuat satu ide menang atau mengalahkan yang lain,

So to me,

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

tapi semata melihat yang sebenarnya di sana

sejujur dan seakurat yang kau bisa.

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

Bahkan, jika ide itu tidak manis, menguntungkan, atau menyenangkan.

but just to see what's really there

Pola pikir inilah yang secara personal sangat kukagumi.

as honestly and accurately as you can,

Dan aku menghabiskan beberapa tahun terakhir meninjau

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

dan mencoba memahami apa penyebab pola pikir pengintai.

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

Kenapa beberapa orang, terkadang setidaknya,

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

dapat menembus prasangka, bias, serta motivasi mereka sendiri.

what causes scout mindset.

Dan, mereka hanya mencoba melihat fakta atau bukti senetral mungkin?

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

Jawabannya adalah perasaan.

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

Seperti halnya pola pikir prajurit yang mengakar dalam perasaan

as objectively as they can?

seperti merasa diserang atau kesetiaan,

And the answer is emotional.

pola pikir pengintai itu sama, hanya saja mengakar di perasaan berbeda.

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

Misalnya, pengintai itu penasaran.

like defensiveness or tribalism,

Mereka lebih mungkin menyatakan rasa puas saat mempelajari informasi baru

scout mindset is, too.

It's just rooted in different emotions.

For example, scouts are curious.

atau berhasrat untuk memecahkan teka-teki.

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

Mereka lebih mungkin merasa tertarik saat menjumpai sesuatu

yang menyangkal keyakinan mereka.

when they learn new information

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

Pengintai juga punya nilai berbeda.

Mereka lebih mungkin menyatakan bila menguji keyakinan sendiri itu hal terpuji,

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

that contradicts their expectations.

dan kecil kemungkinan mereka menyatakan

Scouts also have different values.

orang yang mengubah pikirannya akan terlihat lemah.

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

Yang terpenting, pengintai itu bijaksana.

to test your own beliefs,

Itu berarti harga diri mereka sebagai manusia

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

tidak terikat dengan benar atau salahnya mereka tentang topik tertentu.

seems weak.

And above all, scouts are grounded,

which means their self-worth as a person

Mereka dapat memercayai bila hukuman mati bekerja.

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

Jika studi ternyata menyebutkan tidak, mereka bisa bilang,

“Oh, sepertinya aku salah. Bukan berarti aku buruk atau bodoh.”

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

Kelompok ciri-ciri inilah yang para peneliti temukan --

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

dan aku juga temukan secara pribadi --

dapat memprakarsai penilaian baik.

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

Pelajaran hidup yang mau kuberikan pada kau dari ciri-ciri ini

adalah ciri-ciri ini sebenarnya bukan tentang seberapa pintarnya kau

and I've also found anecdotally --

predicts good judgment.

atau banyaknya yang kau tahu.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

Nyatanya, mereka tidak berhubungan dengan IQ sama sekali.

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

Ciri-ciri ini tentang bagaimana merasakan.

Ada satu kutipan yang terus tergiang bagiku, dari Saint-Exupéry.

or about how much you know.

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

Dia pengarang “Pangeran Kecil”.

They're about how you feel.

Dia berkata, “Jika kau mau membangun sebuah kapal,

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

jangan membujuk orang-orangmu untuk mengumpulkan kayu, memberi perintah,

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

dan membagi pekerjaan.

Sebaliknya, ajari mereka menyukai laut yang luas dan tiada akhir.”

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

Dengan kata lain, aku menyatakan,

and distribute the work.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

jika kita sungguh mau meningkatkan penilaian

sebagai individu dan sebagai masyarakat,

yang paling kita perlukan bukan lebih banyak arahan logika,

In other words, I claim,

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

retorika, peluang, atau ilmu ekonomi,

and as societies,

meskipun hal-hal itu cukup bermanfaat.

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

Namun, prinsip yang paling perlu kita gunakan dengan baik

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

adalah pola pikir pengintai.

Kita perlu mengubah cara kita merasakan.

even though those things are quite valuable.

Kita perlu mempelajari cara merasa bangga ketimbang malu

But what we most need to use those principles well

saat kita sadar kita mungkin telah salah akan sesuatu.

is scout mindset.

We need to change the way we feel.

Kita perlu mempelajari cara merasa tertarik ketimbang defensif

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

saat kita menjumpai beberapa informasi yang menyangkal keyakinan kita.

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

Jadi, pertanyaan yang ingin kuberikan padamu adalah:

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

Apa yang paling kau suka?

Apa kau suka mempertahankan keyakinanmu?

So the question I want to leave you with is:

Atau, apa kau suka melihat dunia sejelas mungkin?

What do you most yearn for?

Terima kasih.

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

(Tepuk Tangan)

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

Thank you.

(Applause)