Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

2,154,863 views ใƒป 2016-08-08

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Park Haesik ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
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์ž ์‹œ ๋™์•ˆ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ „ํˆฌ ํ•œ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ ์žˆ๋Š”
00:15
that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.
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๋ณ‘์‚ฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ์ƒํ•ด ๋ณด๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:18
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋กœ๋งˆ ๋ณด๋ณ‘์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์ค‘์„ธ ๊ถ์ˆ˜๋‚˜
00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
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์ค„๋ฃจ์กฑ ์ „์‚ฌ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:24
Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—” ์‹œ๊ฐ„๊ณผ ์žฅ์†Œ์— ๊ด€๊ณ„์—†์ด ์ผ๊ด€๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:28
Your adrenaline is elevated,
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์•„๋“œ๋ ˆ๋‚ ๋ฆฐ์ด ์†Ÿ๊ตฌ์น˜๊ณ 
00:30
and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
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๊นŠ์ด ๋‚ด์ œ๋œ ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌ์ž‘์šฉ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ–‰๋™ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:35
reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌ์ž‘์šฉ์€ ๋‚˜ ์ž์‹ ๊ณผ ์•„๊ตฐ์„ ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ณ 
00:39
and to defeat the enemy.
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์ ์„ ๋ฌด์ฐŒ๋ฅด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ƒ์„ฑ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,
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์ž, ์ด์ œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์—ญํ• ์„ ์ƒ์ƒํ•ด๋ณด๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:46
that of the scout.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ(์ •์ฐฐ๋ณ‘)์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:48
The scout's job is not to attack or defend.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ์˜ ์ž„๋ฌด๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฐฉ์–ด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
The scout's job is to understand.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ์˜ ์ž„๋ฌด๋Š” ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:54
The scout is the one going out,
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ๋Š” ๋ฐ–์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€
00:56
mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.
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์ง€ํ˜•์„ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๋ฉฐ ์žฅ์• ๋ฌผ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:00
And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ ๋‹นํ•œ ์œ„์น˜์— ๊ฐ•์„ ๊ฐ€๋กœ์ง€๋ฅด๋Š”
01:04
in a convenient location across a river.
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๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ž„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:06
But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค, ์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ๋Š” ์ €๊ธฐ์— ์ง„์งœ ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€
01:09
as accurately as possible.
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:12
And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.
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ํ˜„์‹ค์˜ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€์—์„œ ์ „ํˆฌ๋ณ‘๊ณผ ์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ ๋‘˜ ๋‹ค ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:17
But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด ๋‘ ์—ญํ• ์„ ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:22
a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ผ์ƒ์˜ ์ •๋ณด์™€ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๋Š”์ง€
01:26
in our daily lives.
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๋น„์œ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด๋Š”๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:28
What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€๊ฑด ์ข‹์€ ํŒ๋‹จ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ
01:32
making accurate predictions, making good decisions,
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์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก, ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์  ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
01:35
is mostly about which mindset you're in.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์–ด๋–ค ํƒœ๋„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๋Š๋ƒ์— ๋‹ฌ๋ ค์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:38
To illustrate these mindsets in action,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด๋ณด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
01:41
I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์„ 19์„ธ๊ธฐ ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค๋กœ ๋ฐ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:45
where this innocuous-looking piece of paper
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๋Œ€์ˆ˜๋กญ์ง€ ์•Š์•„ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์ด ์ข…์ด ํ•œ ์žฅ์€
01:48
launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์ •์น˜์  ๋…ผ๋ž€์„ ๋‚ณ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:51
It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.
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์ด ์ข…์ด๋Š” 1984๋…„ ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ์ฐธ๋ชจ๋ถ€ ์žฅ๊ต๋“ค์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:56
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
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์ฐข์–ด์ ธ์„œ ์“ฐ๋ ˆ๊ธฐํ†ต์— ๋ฒ„๋ ค์ ธ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
01:59
but when they pieced it back together,
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์กฐํ•ฉ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ
02:01
they discovered that someone in their ranks
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์ค‘ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋…์ผ์— ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๊ธฐ๋ฐ€์„
02:03
had been selling military secrets to Germany.
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ํŒ”๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:06
So they launched a big investigation,
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๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์ธ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‹ค์‹œํ–ˆ๊ณ 
02:08
and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์˜์‹ฌ์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์—๊ฒŒ๋กœ ํ–ฅํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:12
Alfred Dreyfus.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์•Œํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:14
He had a sterling record,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฏฟ์„๋งŒํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:16
no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.
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์–ด๋–ค ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๊ธฐ๋ก๋„ ์—†๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•„๋Š”ํ•œ ๋™๊ธฐ๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:20
But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๋Š” ์žฅ๊ต๋“ค ์ค‘ ์œ ์ผํ•œ ์œ ๋Œ€์ธ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:25
and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํžˆ๋„ ์ด๋‹น์‹œ ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๋Š” ๋ฐ˜์œ ๋Œ€์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ์—ฐํ•ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ํ•„์ ๊ณผ ์ข…์ด์˜ ํ•„์ ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ–ˆ๊ณ 
02:32
and concluded that it was a match,
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๋˜‘๊ฐ™๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:34
even though outside professional handwriting experts
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์™ธ๋ถ€ ํ•„์ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
02:37
were much less confident in the similarity,
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์œ ์‚ฌ์„ฑ์— ์˜๊ตฌ์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์กŒ์ง€๋งŒ
02:40
but never mind that.
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์ƒ๊ด€์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:41
They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ์•„ํŒŒํŠธ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์„œ ์ˆ˜์ƒ‰์„ ํ–ˆ๊ณ 
02:43
looking for any signs of espionage.
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๊ฐ„์ฒฉํ–‰์œ„์˜ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์œผ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.
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๊ทธ์˜ ์„œ๋ฅ˜๋“ค์„ ๋’ค์ ธ๋ดค์ง€๋งŒ ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ฐพ์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:48
This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
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์ด ์ ์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๋”์šฑ ํ™•์‹ ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์œ ์ฃ„์ผ ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
02:51
but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์˜ค๊ธฐ ์ „์— ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์™„๋ฒฝํžˆ ๊ฐ์ถœ ์ •๋„๋กœ
02:54
before they had managed to get to it.
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๊ตํ™œํ•˜๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
02:57
Next, they went and looked through his personal history
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„ํ˜์˜์ ์„ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
02:59
for any incriminating details.
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๊ฐœ์ธ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ๋’ค์ ธ๋ณด๊ณ 
03:02
They talked to his teachers,
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๊ทธ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋“ค๊ณผ๋„ ๋งŒ๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:03
they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ํ•™๊ต์—์„œ ์™ธ๊ตญ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์› ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:06
which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments
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์™ธ๊ตญ ์ •๋ถ€์™€ ์Œ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๊พธ๋ฐ€๋งŒํ•œ ๋™๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ 
03:10
later in life.
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ํ›—๋‚ ์—์š”.
03:11
His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,
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๊ทธ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋“ค์€ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์–ต๋ ฅ์ด ์ข‹๊ธฐ๋กœ ์œ ๋ช…ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ ๋„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:18
which was highly suspicious, right?
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์ •๋ง ์˜์‹ฌ์Šค๋Ÿฝ์ฃ ?
03:20
You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.
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์ŠคํŒŒ์ด๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฑธ ์™ธ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
03:24
So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.
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์‚ฌ๊ฑด์€ ์žฌํŒ์— ๋„˜๊ฒจ์กŒ๊ณ  ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๋Š” ์œ ์ฃ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
Afterwards, they took him out into this public square
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๋‚˜์ค‘์— ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ๊ด‘์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚˜๊ฐ€
03:32
and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform
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๊ทธ์˜ ์ œ๋ณต์˜ ํœ˜์žฅ์„ ์ฐข๊ณ 
03:35
and broke his sword in two.
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์นผ์„ ๋‘๋™๊ฐ• ๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:37
This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ์ˆ˜๋ชจ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:40
And they sentenced him to life imprisonment
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ข…์‹ ํ˜•์„ ์„ ๊ณ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:43
on the aptly named Devil's Island,
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๊ฐ์˜ฅ์€ ์•…๋งˆ์˜ ์„ฌ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ด๋ฆ„ ๋ถ™์—ฌ์ง„ ๊ณณ์ธ๋ฐ
03:46
which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.
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๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ํ•ด์•ˆ์˜ ํ™ฉ๋Ÿ‰ํ•œ ๋ฐ”์œ„์„ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:49
So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,
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๊ทธ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์„œ ๊ทธ๋Š” ํ™€๋กœ ์ง€๋‚ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:53
writing letters and letters to the French government
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ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ์ •๋ถ€์— ํŽธ์ง€๋ฅผ ์“ฐ๊ณ  ๋˜ ์“ฐ๋ฉฐ
03:55
begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.
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์ž์‹ ์˜ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ์žฌ์‹ฌ์˜ ํ•ด๋‹ฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋นŒ๋ฉฐ ๊ฒฐ๋ฐฑ์„ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:59
But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ๋ฌป์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:03
One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair
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์ด ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์—์„œ ์ €์˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๋„๋Š” ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€
04:07
is this question of why the officers were so convinced
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๋„๋Œ€์ฒด ์™œ ์žฅ๊ต๋“ค์ด ๊ทธํ† ๋ก ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€
04:11
that Dreyfus was guilty.
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์œ ์ฃ„๋ผ๊ณ  ํ™•์‹ ์„ ํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:13
I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๋ฅผ ์—ฎ์–ด์„œ
04:16
that they were intentionally framing him.
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๊ณ ์˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ˆ„๋ช…์„ ์”Œ์› ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ค ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:18
But historians don't think that's what happened.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ญ์‚ฌํ•™์ž๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ๊ฐ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:20
As far as we can tell,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋Š” ํ•œ
04:21
the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
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์žฅ๊ต๋“ค์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์œ ์ฃ„๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:26
Which makes you wonder:
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:28
What does it say about the human mind
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์ด ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์ด ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋งˆ์Œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ญ˜ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ์ง€ ๋ง์ด์ฃ 
04:30
that we can find such paltry evidence
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์ด ์ž‘์€ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„
04:33
to be compelling enough to convict a man?
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์œ ์ฃ„๋กœ ๋ชฐ์•„๋„ฃ๋Š” ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:36
Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ '์˜๋„์  ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌํ™”'๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:40
It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,
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๋ฌด์˜์‹์†์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋™๊ธฐ์™€ ๋ฐ”๋žจ, ๋‘๋ ค์›€์ด
04:43
our desires and fears,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜๋Š”
04:45
shape the way we interpret information.
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๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ํ˜•์„ฑํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:48
Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.
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์–ด๋–ค ์ •๋ณด์™€ ์–ด๋–ค ์ƒ๊ฐ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ํŽธ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:51
We want them to win. We want to defend them.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ด๊ธฐ๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ณดํ˜ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:54
And other information or ideas are the enemy,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ •๋ณด๋‚˜ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋Š” ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ ์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:56
and we want to shoot them down.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ์ด์„œ ์“ฐ๋Ÿฌ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ฃ 
04:59
So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜๋„์  ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ตฐ์ธ์˜ ์˜์‹์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:03
Probably most of you have never persecuted
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์•„๋งˆ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์ด ์œ ๋Œ€์ธ ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ์žฅ๊ต๋ฅผ
05:07
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
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๋ฐ˜์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ์ฒ˜๋ฒŒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:09
I assume,
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05:10
but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์Šคํฌ์ธ ๋‚˜ ์ •์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ด์™”๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋‹ค์Œ์˜ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:15
that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,
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์‹ฌํŒ์ด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„ ํŒ€์— ํŒŒ์šธ์„ ๋ถˆ์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:19
for example,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€
05:21
you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.
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์‹ฌํŒ์ด ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด ๋™๊ธฐํ™”ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:24
But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์‹ฌํŒ์ด ์ƒ๋Œ€ํŒ€์—๊ฒŒ ํŒŒ์šธ์„ ๋ถˆ๋ฉด "์ข‹์•˜์–ด!"
05:27
That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.
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์ข‹์€ ํŒ๋‹จ์ด์•ผ, ๋” ์ž์„ธํžˆ ๋ณผ ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†์–ด.
05:30
Or, maybe you've read an article or a study
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๋˜๋Š” ๋…ผ๋ž€์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ •์ฑ…์„ ๋‹ค๋ฃฌ
05:32
that examined some controversial policy,
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๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋‚˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ฝ์–ด๋ณด์…จ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:35
like capital punishment.
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์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
05:37
And, as researchers have demonstrated,
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๋งŽ์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
05:39
if you support capital punishment
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ 
05:41
and the study shows that it's not effective,
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ๊ฐ€ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
05:44
then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜ณ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด
05:47
why the study was poorly designed.
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๊ณ ๋„๋กœ ๋™๊ธฐํ™” ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:49
But if it shows that capital punishment works,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ๊ฐ€ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ด๋ž€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋ฉด
05:51
it's a good study.
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'๋ฉ‹์ง€๊ตฐ, ์ข‹์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์•ผ'๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋„ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€์ฃ 
05:53
And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.
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05:56
Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ํŒ๋‹จ์€ ๋ฌด์˜์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ
05:59
by which side we want to win.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ํŽธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ์›๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:02
And this is ubiquitous.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์˜ˆ๋Š” ์–ด๋””์„œ๋“  ์ฐพ์•„๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:03
This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๊ณผ, ์ธ๊ฐ„ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง€
06:07
how we decide how to vote,
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํˆฌํ‘œํ• ์ง€ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ 
06:08
what we consider fair or ethical.
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๋ฌด์—‡์ด ๊ณต์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋„๋•์ ์ธ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํŒ๋‹จ์„ ํ˜•์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:12
What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning
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์ด ์˜๋„์  ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌํ™” ๋˜๋Š”
06:14
or soldier mindset,
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๊ตฐ์ธ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์„œ์šด ๊ฑด
06:15
is how unconscious it is.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋ฌด์˜์‹์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:17
We can think we're being objective and fair-minded
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์ด๊ณ  ๊ณต์ •ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:20
and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.
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์ฃ„์—†๋Š” ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์ธ์ƒ์„ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:25
However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹คํ–‰ํžˆ ๋“œ๋ค ํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
This is Colonel Picquart.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ํ”ผ์นดํŠธ ๋Œ€๋ น์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค๊ตฐ์˜ ๊ณ ์œ„ ์žฅ๊ต์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:31
and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ, ๊ทธ๋„ ๋“œ๋ค ํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์œ ์ฃ„๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
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๊ตฐ๋‚ด ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ทธ๋„ ์ตœ์†Œํ•œ ๊ฒ‰๋ณด๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๋ฐ˜์œ ๋Œ€์ฃผ์˜์ž์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:39
But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์–ด๋Š ์ˆœ๊ฑด ํ”ผ์นดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜๊ตฌ์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:43
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ‹€๋ ธ์œผ๋ฉด ์–ด์ฉŒ์ง€?"
06:46
What happened was, he had discovered evidence
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณค, ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋…์ผ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ŠคํŒŒ์ดํ–‰์œ„๊ฐ€
06:48
that the spying for Germany had continued,
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๊ณ„์†๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:51
even after Dreyfus was in prison.
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๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ๊ฐ„ ์ดํ›„์—๋„ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
06:53
And he had also discovered that another officer in the army
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์žฅ๊ต์˜ ํ•„์ ์ด
06:56
had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,
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๋ฉ”๋ชจ์™€ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์ผ์น˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:59
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
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๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ํ•„์ ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
07:02
So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•œ๊ฑธ ์ƒ์‚ฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๊ฐ”์ง€๋งŒ
07:06
but to his dismay, they either didn't care
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๋†€๋ž๊ฒŒ๋„, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‹ ๊ฒฝ์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
07:09
or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,
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๊ทธ์˜ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ณ ๋„๋กœ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌํ™” ํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy
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"๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€ ๊ฑด ๋ง์ด์ง€, ์•„๋งˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ŠคํŒŒ์ด์ผ๊ฑฐ์•ผ.
07:18
who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,
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๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์žกํ˜€๊ฐ„ ๋’ค ๋ฐ”ํ†ต์„ ์ด์–ด๋ฐ›์€ ์ŠคํŒŒ์ด๊ฐ€
07:21
and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.
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๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค์˜ ํ•„์ฒด๋ฅผ ํ‰๋‚ด๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ ."
07:25
But Dreyfus is still guilty."
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๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์œ ์ฃ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:27
Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์—”, ํ”ผ์นดํŠธ๋Š” ๋“œ๋ ˆํ“Œ์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฌด์ฃ„๋กœ ํ’€๋ ค๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
07:30
But it took him 10 years,
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10๋…„์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:32
and for part of that time, he himself was in prison
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๊ทธ ๋™์•ˆ ๊ทธ ์ž์‹ ๋„ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ์ˆ˜๊ฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:35
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
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ํ•ญ๋ช…์ฃ„๋กœ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
07:38
A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story
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์ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ํ”ผ์นดํŠธ๋Š” ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ์˜์›…์ด ๋˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜์œ ๋Œ€์ฃผ์˜์ž์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ . ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์˜ณ์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ , ์ €๋„ ๋™์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:49
But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜์œ ๋Œ€์ฃผ์˜์ž์˜€๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
07:53
actually makes his actions more admirable,
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๊ทธ์˜ ํ–‰๋™์„ ๋”์šฑ ์กด๊ฒฝํ• ๋งŒํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€๊ฐ์‹œํ‚ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:56
because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋™๋ฃŒ ์žฅ๊ต๋“ค๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€๋กœ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ๊ณผ ์„ ์ž…๊ฒฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ด์œ ๋“ค์„
07:59
as his fellow officers,
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๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:01
but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ง„์‹ค์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ํˆฌ์Ÿํ•œ ๊ทธ์˜ ๋™๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ดˆ์›”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:07
So to me,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ €์—๊ฒŒ
08:08
Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."
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ํ”ผ์นดํŠธ๋Š” ์†Œ์œ„ ์ •์ฐฐ๋ณ‘ ์ •์‹ ์˜ ์ „ํ˜•์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:12
It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ๋งž๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ‹€๋ฆฌ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
08:16
but just to see what's really there
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์ง„์งœ๋กœ ์ €๊ธฐ์— ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:18
as honestly and accurately as you can,
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ •์งํ•˜๊ณ  ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
08:21
even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.
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๋น„๋ก ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ‰ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ถˆํŽธํ•˜๊ณ  ์ฆ๊ฒ์ง€ ์•Š๋”๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
08:25
This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.
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์ €๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด ๋งˆ์Œ์ƒํƒœ์— ๋งค๋ ฅ์„ ๋Š๊ผˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:28
And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ ๋งˆ์Œ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š”์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์•Œ์•„๋‚ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
08:33
what causes scout mindset.
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๋ช‡ ๋…„์„ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes at least,
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์™œ ๊ฐ€๋” ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
08:39
able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์ž์‹ ์˜ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ๊ณผ ์„ ์ž…๊ฒฌ, ๋™๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ฐจ๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ 
08:42
and just try to see the facts and the evidence
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์‹ค๊ณผ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด
08:45
as objectively as they can?
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๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
08:47
And the answer is emotional.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ต์€ ๊ฐ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:51
So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions
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๊ตฐ์ธ์˜ ์˜์‹์€ ๋ฐฉ์–ด์™€ ๋ถ€์กฑ์ฃผ์˜์— ๊ธฐ์ธํ•œ
08:54
like defensiveness or tribalism,
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๊ฐ์ •์— ๋ฟŒ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:58
scout mindset is, too.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ์˜ ํƒœ๋„ ์—ญ์‹œ
09:00
It's just rooted in different emotions.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฐ์ •์— ๊ธฐ์ธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:02
For example, scouts are curious.
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๊ฐ€๋ น, ์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ๋Š” ํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:05
They're more likely to say they feel pleasure
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์•„๋งˆ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
09:09
when they learn new information
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ํผ์ฆ์„ ํ’€ ๋•Œ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์›€์„ ๋Š๋‚€๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:10
or an itch to solve a puzzle.
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09:13
They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๊ณผ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๋˜๋Š” ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ ธ์„ ๋•Œ
09:16
that contradicts their expectations.
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๋”์šฑ ํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์‹ฌ์„ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์ผ์œผํ‚ฌ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:19
Scouts also have different values.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:21
They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ๋ฏฟ์Œ์„ ์‹œํ—˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
09:24
to test your own beliefs,
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๋” ๊ฐ€์น˜์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:25
and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋‚˜์•ฝํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ 
09:29
seems weak.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:30
And above all, scouts are grounded,
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๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค, ์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ๋Š” ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:32
which means their self-worth as a person
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ํ•œ ์ธ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ์„œ์˜ ์ž์•„๋Š”
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ค ์ฃผ์ œ์— ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์˜ณ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ฅธ์ง€์— ๋‹ฌ๋ ค์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:42
So they can believe that capital punishment works.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌํ˜•์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜ณ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ๊ณ 
09:45
If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋‚˜์˜ฌ๋•Œ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ• ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
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๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ํ‹€๋ฆด ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์ง€, ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๋ฐ”๋ณด๋ผ๋Š”๊ฑด ์•„๋ƒ.
09:53
This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์„ฑํ–ฅ๋“ค์˜ ์ง‘ํ•ฉ์€ ๋งŽ์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋“ค์ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ๊ณ 
09:58
and I've also found anecdotally --
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์ €๋„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
10:00
predicts good judgment.
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์˜ฌ๋ฐ”๋ฅธ ํŒ๋‹จ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:02
And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŠน์ง•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋‚จ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‹œ์‚ฌ์ ์€
10:05
is that they're primarily not about how smart you are
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋˜‘๋˜‘ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋งŽ์ด ์•„๋Š”๊ฐ€์™€๋Š”
10:09
or about how much you know.
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๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด€๋ จ์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:11
In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, IQ์™€๋„ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:14
They're about how you feel.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋Š๋ผ๋Š๋ƒ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:16
There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupรฉry.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ž˜ ์“ฐ๋Š” ์ƒํ… ์ฅํŽ˜๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ง์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:20
He's the author of "The Little Prince."
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์–ด๋ฆฐ ์™•์ž์˜ ์ €์ž์ฃ .
10:22
He said, "If you want to build a ship,
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๊ทธ๋Š” "๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๋ฉด
10:26
don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ชฐ์•„์ณ ๋‚˜๋ฌด๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋ช…๋ นํ•˜๊ณ ,
10:30
and distribute the work.
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์ผ๊ฐ์„ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ์ฃผ์ง€ ๋งˆ๋ผ.
10:32
Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."
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๋Œ€์‹  ๋์—†์ด ํŽผ์ณ์ง„ ๊ด‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ”๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฐˆ๋งํ•˜๋„๋ก ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์ณ ์ฃผ๋ผ."
10:38
In other words, I claim,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ง๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฉด
10:40
if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ์ธ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ๋” ์ข‹์€ ํŒ๋‹จ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๋ฉด
10:44
and as societies,
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ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ๋กœ์„œ๋„์š”.
10:45
what we need most is not more instruction in logic
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฑด ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ์ง€์นจ์ด๋‚˜
10:49
or rhetoric or probability or economics,
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ํ™”๋ คํ•œ ์ˆ˜์‚ฌ, ํ™•๋ฅ  ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:52
even though those things are quite valuable.
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ•˜์ฃ .
10:54
But what we most need to use those principles well
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€,
10:58
is scout mindset.
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์Šค์นด์šฐํŠธ์˜ ๋งˆ์Œ ์ž์„ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:59
We need to change the way we feel.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋Š๋ผ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:01
We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฑธ ์•Œ์•˜์„ ๋•Œ
11:05
when we notice we might have been wrong about something.
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๋ถ€๋„๋Ÿฌ์›Œ ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ์ž๋ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฌ์›Œ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ฐฐ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:08
We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฏฟ์Œ๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
11:11
when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.
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๋ฐฉ์–ด๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํ˜ธ๊ธฐ์‹ฌ์„ ๋Š๋‚„์ค„ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:16
So the question I want to leave you with is:
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ๋‚จ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€
11:19
What do you most yearn for?
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:์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ๊ฐˆ๋งํ•˜์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
11:22
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
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์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋ฏฟ์Œ์„ ์ง€ํ‚ค๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜๋‚˜์š”?
11:26
Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด, ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
11:30
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:31
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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