Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Translator: Yang He Reviewer: Tim Yan

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

請大家想像下

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

自己係個打緊仗嘅士兵

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

可能係個羅馬步兵 或者係中世紀嘅弓箭手

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

又或者係祖魯戰士

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

無論你身處何時何地 有啲嘢係唔會變嘅

Your adrenaline is elevated,

你嘅腎上腺素會升高

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

你嘅行為，其實根植於 呢啲反射動作之中

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

呢啲用黎保護你自己

and to defeat the enemy.

同埋打敗敵人嘅反射動作

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

所以依家我希望 你哋諗下喺頭先嘅情境中

that of the scout.

自己扮演唔同嘅角色：偵察兵

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

偵察兵唔洗攻擊或者防禦

The scout's job is to understand.

任務只係要了解情況

The scout is the one going out,

偵察兵要行出去

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

畫出敵方嘅地圖 了解潛在嘅阻礙物

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

偵察兵希望了解嘅係譬如 一個方便過河嘅位置

in a convenient location across a river.

係唔係有一座橋

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

不過更加重要嘅係，偵察兵希望 了解嗰度究竟有啲咩

as accurately as possible.

知得越精確越好

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

正如真正嘅軍隊入面 士兵同偵察兵都好重要

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

不過你又可以當呢啲 角色代表緊啲思維方式

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

比喻緊我哋喺日常生活之中

in our daily lives.

接收信息同諗嘢嘅過程

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

我哋今日想講嘅就係 要擁有優秀嘅判斷力

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

要作出精確嘅預測、正確嘅決定

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

主要取決於你嘅思維方式

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

依家我哋可以實際 展示下呢種思維方式

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

我會帶住你地去 十九世紀嘅法國

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

喺嗰度，呢張睇落微不足道嘅紙仔

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

引發咗歷史上 數一數二嘅政治醜聞

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

1894 年，有啲法國公務員發現

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

垃圾桶裡面一張撕碎嘅紙

but when they pieced it back together,

將啲紙砌返埋之後

they discovered that someone in their ranks

佢哋發現隊伍裡面有人

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

偷偷地賣軍事機密畀德國

So they launched a big investigation,

於是佢哋開始咗個大規模嘅調查

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

調查結果好快指向一個人

Alfred Dreyfus.

阿弗列 ‧ 屈里弗斯

He had a sterling record,

佢嘅信用紀錄幾好

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

之前無做錯過嘢 又唔似有犯案動機

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

但係，屈里弗斯係隊伍 入面唯一一個猶太軍官

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

不幸嘅係，嗰時法國軍隊好歧視猶太人

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

佢哋攞屈里弗斯嘅字跡同嗰張紙做比較

and concluded that it was a match,

發現係一致嘅

even though outside professional handwriting experts

雖然其他筆跡專家

were much less confident in the similarity,

覺得冇咁似

but never mind that.

但係無論點

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

佢哋去咗屈里弗斯間屋

looking for any signs of espionage.

搵佢做間諜嘅痕跡

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

佢哋搵暈曬佢啲文件 都搵唔到證據

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

佢哋反而覺得屈里弗斯一定係做緊間諜

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

仲超級狡猾，係佢哋嚟到之前

before they had managed to get to it.

已經將啲罪證收起曬

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

跟著落嚟，佢哋去查佢嘅個人歷史

for any incriminating details.

試圖尋找犯罪嘅痕跡

They talked to his teachers,

佢哋向佢嘅老師問話

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

發現佢喺學校學過外語

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

就覺得佢一定係為咗之後

later in life.

做外國間諜

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

佢嘅老師仲話 屈里弗斯記憶力好，好到出曬名

which was highly suspicious, right?

真係太可疑啦，係咪？

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

因為你知啦 間諜係需要記住好多嘢㗎嘛

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

呢單案件上咗法庭 屈里弗斯被判有罪

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

之後，佢哋將佢帶到廣場上

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

依足規矩咁扯走佢嘅徽章

and broke his sword in two.

又將佢嘅劍折成兩段

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

呢個就係屈里弗斯降級事件

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

佢哋判咗佢終身監禁

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

將佢流放到南美洲海岸

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

一個叫做魔鬼島嘅荒涼小島上

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

佢之後就去咗嗰度淒涼度日

writing letters and letters to the French government

寫左一封又一封信畀法國政府

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

求佢哋重新審過單案時 會察覺佢係無辜嘅

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

但係大家都覺得 呢單案已經完曬

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

我覺得屈里弗斯事件 好有意思嘅一個地方

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

就係嗰啲官員點解咁肯定

that Dreyfus was guilty.

屈里弗斯係有罪嘅呢

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

你甚至會覺得 佢地設佢局

that they were intentionally framing him.

特登陷害佢

But historians don't think that's what happened.

不過歷史學家都唔係咁諗

As far as we can tell,

我哋可以睇到

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

個啲官真係覺得 控訴屈里弗斯嘅理據十足

Which makes you wonder:

呢件事令人奇怪

What does it say about the human mind

人類個腦到底有咩問題

that we can find such paltry evidence

以至咁丁點嘅證據

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

都可以說服到人判佢有罪？

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

係咁嘅，科學家發現一種 叫做「動機性推理」嘅現象

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

係指我哋嘅潛意識

our desires and fears,

我哋嘅慾望同恐懼

shape the way we interpret information.

塑造咗我哋分析信息嘅方式

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

有啲信息，有啲諗法 對我哋嚟講好似朋友

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

我哋想佢地贏 我哋想護住佢哋

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

有啲信息好似仇人咁樣

and we want to shoot them down.

我哋想消滅佢哋

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

所以我鐘意叫動機性推理 做「士兵思維」

Probably most of you have never persecuted

你哋就從未迫害過

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

猶太裔法國軍官，話佢係叛徒

I assume,

我估係呱

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

不過你如果鍾意睇體育 或者政治新聞

你可能已經留意到

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

譬如，當個裁判話

for example,

你鍾意嗰隊犯規

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

你就會好想搵理由講 佢點解判錯咗

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

不過如果佢判另外嗰隊 犯咗規，你就會覺得好啱

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

這個例子幾好 但大家唔好咁認真

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

或者，你可能啱啱先讀咗一篇

that examined some controversial policy,

有關一啲爭議嘅文章或者研究

like capital punishment.

譬如應唔應該有死刑

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

啲研究員發現

if you support capital punishment

如果你支持死刑

and the study shows that it's not effective,

但係篇文話死刑無用嘅話

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

你就會好想搵出

why the study was poorly designed.

呢份報告邊度寫得唔好

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

不過如果篇文支持死刑

it's a good study.

你就會覺得佢寫得好好

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

反之亦然：如果你唔 支持死刑，都係一樣嘅

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

我哋嘅判斷力喺無意之中

by which side we want to win.

受我哋嘅立場好大影響

And this is ubiquitous.

呢個現象好普遍

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

決定緊我哋點睇 健康同人際關係

how we decide how to vote,

點投票

what we consider fair or ethical.

點先覺得係公平或者合乎道德

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

最驚嚇嘅係

or soldier mindset,

動機性推理或者士兵思維

is how unconscious it is.

都係完全無意嘅

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

我哋以為自己好公正、好客觀

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

但係都可以冤死無辜嘅人

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

不過，好彩屈里弗斯嘅故事未完

This is Colonel Picquart.

呢個係皮卡爾上校

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

佢係另外一個法軍高官

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

同其他人一樣，佢都覺得屈里弗斯有罪

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

又同其他人咁，佢都有少少反猶太

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

不過，過咗一段時間，皮卡爾開始懷疑

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

「我哋係唔係冤枉咗屈里弗斯？」

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

之後，佢發現

that the spying for Germany had continued,

屈里弗斯坐緊監時

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

都繼續有人為德國通風報信

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

佢仲發現軍隊入面

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

有人嘅字跡同果張紙仔上嘅一模一樣

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

而且比起屈里弗斯嘅字跡更加似

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

於是，佢向上級匯報佢嘅發現

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

不過令佢失望嘅係，佢哋一係就唔上心

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

一係就兜個大圈，合理化啲新發現

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

譬如「皮卡爾，你只不過 發現咗另一個間諜

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

模仿咗屈里弗斯嘅字跡。

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

喺屈里弗斯坐監之後接手間諜工作。

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

不過屈里弗斯都係有罪嘅。」

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

最尾，皮卡爾成功幫屈里弗斯洗脫罪名

But it took him 10 years,

但係就用咗整整十年

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

期間佢自己都因為

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

對軍隊不忠坐咗陣監

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

好多人覺得皮卡爾唔係成件事嘅英雄

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

因為佢都歧視猶太人，我同意呢點

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

不過，對我黎講，正因為皮卡爾反猶太

actually makes his actions more admirable,

佢嘅舉動更加令人佩服

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

因為佢都同其他軍官有一樣嘅偏見

有同樣嘅原因可能作出唔公正嘅判斷

as his fellow officers,

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

但佢尋找、堅持真相嘅動力將功補過

So to me,

對於我嚟講

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

皮卡爾係「偵察思維」嘅典範

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

冇支持或反對任何觀點

but just to see what's really there

而係純粹發現事實所在

as honestly and accurately as you can,

盡量真實準確嘅事實

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

即使啲事實唔光彩、唔方便人 唔討人歡喜

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

呢個就係我熱愛嘅思維

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

過去幾年，我試圖探索同發現

what causes scout mindset.

「偵察思維」係點樣形成嘅

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

點解有啲人，有啲時候

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

能夠摒棄自己嘅偏見、主觀同埋動機

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

嘗試用最客觀嘅眼光

as objectively as they can?

去睇清事實同證據

And the answer is emotional.

答案就係情感上

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

就好似士兵思維係出於

like defensiveness or tribalism,

譬如防禦或者親疏有別嘅情感

scout mindset is, too.

偵察思維都係

It's just rooted in different emotions.

不過係出於唔同嘅情感

For example, scouts are curious.

譬如，偵察者有好奇心

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

佢哋學到新嘢時

when they learn new information

或者解開難題時

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

就會好開心

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

如果佢哋發現有嘢 違背咗佢哋嘅假設

that contradicts their expectations.

就會覺得好奇

Scouts also have different values.

偵察者都有唔同嘅價值觀

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

佢哋覺得驗證自己嘅觀念

to test your own beliefs,

係一種美德

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

而唔會覺得

seems weak.

改變諗法係一種軟弱嘅行為

And above all, scouts are grounded,

最後，偵察者係腳踏實地嘅

which means their self-worth as a person

佢哋作為人嘅自尊唔係取決於

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

佢哋對於特定議題嘅諗法係對定錯

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

佢哋可能覺得死刑係有用嘅

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

但如果有研究話死刑係冇用嘅

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

佢哋會諗「係，我諗錯咗， 但都唔代表我差勁或者蠢」

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

研究員發現呢啲性格特點

and I've also found anecdotally --

——而我都係啲故事中發現

預示咗人嘅判斷能力高低

predicts good judgment.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

我最想比你知道嘅就係

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

係呢啲性格特點同你醒唔醒無關

or about how much you know.

同你識幾多嘢都無關

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

其實同智商都冇咩數據上嘅關係

They're about how you feel.

主要都係同情感有關

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

我成日引用聖埃克絮佩里

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

——即係《小王子》嘅作者所講

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

「如果你想造船，

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

唔好叫人地收集木頭、發號施令、

and distribute the work.

分配工作，

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

而係要教識佢哋嚮往 無邊無際嘅大海。」

In other words, I claim,

換句話講

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

如果我哋真係想改善判斷能力

and as societies,

不論係作為係個人或者社會

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

我哋最需要嘅唔係更多嘅邏輯構建

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

比喻、機會率又或經濟學

even though those things are quite valuable.

儘管呢啲嘢都好有價值

But what we most need to use those principles well

不過要好好利用呢個理論

我哋最需要嘅係偵查思維

is scout mindset.

We need to change the way we feel.

我哋需要改變自己嘅感觀

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

我哋需要學習 喺發現自己諗錯嘢時

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

覺得自豪而唔係羞恥

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

需要學習如何喺發現一啲 同我哋觀念牴觸嘅資訊時

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

覺得好奇而唔係戒備

So the question I want to leave you with is:

所以，我想問你哋嘅問題係

What do you most yearn for?

你最想要嘅係咩？

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

你想防禦自己嘅觀念？

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

定係想盡可能睇到真實嘅世界？

Thank you.

多謝各位

(Applause)

（掌聲）