Sheena Iyengar: How to make choosing easier

翻译人员: Feiyi Kuai 校对人员: dong liu

Do you know how many choices you make

你知道在日常生活中你平均

in a typical day?

每天做多少选择？

Do you know how many choices you make

你知道你平均每周

in typical week?

做多少选择？

I recently did a survey

我最近在超过2000美国人中

with over 2,000 Americans,

做了一个调查，

and the average number of choices

结果显示，一个典型的美国人

that the typical American reports making

平均每天

is about 70 in a typical day.

做70个选择。

There was also recently a study done with CEOs

另外最近还有一个对于CEO们的研究

in which they followed CEOs around for a whole week.

科学家们在一星期中跟着CEO们

And these scientists simply documented all the various tasks

然后记录下他们所参与和完成的

that these CEOs engaged in

各种不同的活动与任务

and how much time they spent engaging

和他们做的所有与这些任务有关的

in making decisions related to these tasks.

决定所用的时间。

And they found that the average CEO

科学家们由此发现，每一个CEO平均

engaged in about 139 tasks in a week.

每周参与完成大概139个任务。

Each task was made up of many, many, many sub-choices of course.

当然了，每个任务又都是由许多小的选择构成的。

50 percent of their decisions

这其中50%的决定

were made in nine minutes or less.

都是他们在九分钟甚至更短的时间内做出的。

Only about 12 percent of the decisions

只有其中百分之十二的决定，

did they make an hour or more of their time.

用了他们一小时或更长的时间。

Think about your own choices.

想一想你每天做的选择。

Do you know how many choices

你知道它们中多少

make it into your nine minute category

是“九分钟抉择”

versus your one hour category?

又有多少是一小时的选择？

How well do you think you're doing

在管理这些选择上，

at managing those choices?

你做的如何？

Today I want to talk

今天我要讲一讲

about one of the biggest modern day choosing problems that we have,

现在社会中我们所面对的最严重的选择问题：

which is the choice overload problem.

选择过多。

I want to talk about the problem

我想要讲一讲这些问题

and some potential solutions.

与一些可行的解决办法。

Now as I talk about this problem,

我现在先将这个问题，

I'm going to have some questions for you

我要问你们一些问题

and I'm going to want to know your answers.

然后我希望得到你们的答案。

So when I ask you a question,

所以当我问你们一个问题

since I'm blind,

由于我看不见，

only raise your hand if you want to burn off some calories.

不要举手除非你只是想消耗一下卡路里。

(Laughter)

（笑声)

Otherwise, when I ask you a question,

否则，当我问你们一个问题，

and if your answer is yes,

如果你的答案是：是，

I'd like you to clap your hands.

我希望你们可以鼓掌。

So for my first question for you today:

所以，我今天给你们的第一个问题是：

Are you guys ready to hear about the choice overload problem?

对于选择过多这个问题你们准备好听了么？

(Applause)

（观众鼓掌）

Thank you.

谢谢

So when I was a graduate student at Stanford University,

当我还是斯坦福大学的一名本科学生时，

I used to go to this very, very upscale grocery store;

我经常去一个非常高级的杂货店；

at least at that time it was truly upscale.

至少在当时看来那家店是十分高级的。

It was a store called Draeger's.

它的名字是Draeger‘s。

Now this store, it was almost like going to an amusement park.

去那家店，就像是去游乐园一样。

They had 250 different kinds of mustards and vinegars

他们有250种不同的黄芥末和醋

and over 500 different kinds

还有超过500中不同种类的

of fruits and vegetables

蔬菜和水果

and more than two dozen different kinds of bottled water --

还有超过24中不同的瓶装水

and this was during a time when we actually used to drink tap water.

而那是我们还在喝水龙头里的水的年代。

I used to love going to this store,

我过去十分喜欢去这家店，

but on one occasion I asked myself,

但是有一次我问自己，

well how come you never buy anything?

为什么你从来都不买东西呢？

Here's their olive oil aisle.

这是卖橄榄油的过道。

They had over 75 different kinds of olive oil,

他们有75种以上不同的橄榄油，

including those that were in a locked case

包括那些被锁在盒子里

that came from thousand-year-old olive trees.

从4000年的橄榄树上取来的油。

So I one day decided to pay a visit to the manager,

于是有一天我决定去拜访一下这家店的经理，

and I asked the manager,

我问他，

"Is this model of offering people all this choice really working?"

“这个给人们所有选择的模型真的有用么？”

And he pointed to the busloads of tourists

然后他向我示意了那些每天都会来的

that would show up everyday,

一车一车的

with cameras ready usually.

举着相机的游客。

We decided to do a little experiment,

我们决定做一个小实验，

and we picked jam for our experiment.

然后选择了果酱作为试验品。

Here's their jam aisle.

这是卖果酱的走廊。

They had 348 different kinds of jam.

他们有148种不同的果酱。

We set up a little tasting booth

在店门口的地方

right near the entrance of the store.

我们摆设了一个小的品尝台。

We there put out six different flavors of jam

我们在那儿摆6种

or 24 different flavors of jam,

或24种不同味道的果酱，

and we looked at two things:

然后我们观察了两件事：

First, in which case

第一，人们在哪种情况下

were people more likely to stop, sample some jam?

更愿意停下脚步品尝一些果酱？

More people stopped when there were 24, about 60 percent,

相比较下，大部分，约60%的人，在有24种果酱走廊停了脚步，

than when there were six,

而当有6种果酱时

about 40 percent.

只有40%的人。

The next thing we looked at

我们观察的另一件事是：

is in which case were people more likely

在人们在哪种情况下更愿意

to buy a jar of jam.

买一罐果酱

Now we see the opposite effect.

这时，我们观察到了相反的结果。

Of the people who stopped when there were 24,

在那些在有24种果酱时停下的人们中，

only three percent of them actually bought a jar of jam.

只有3%的人真正买了果酱。

Of the people who stopped when there were six,

而此时，在那些在有6种果酱时停下的人们中，

well now we saw that 30 percent of them

我们发现有30%的人

actually bought a jar of jam.

买了果酱。

Now if you do the math,

现在如果你算一下的话，

people were at least six times more likely to buy a jar of jam

当人们只有六种选择时，

if they encountered six

比有24种时

than if they encountered 24.

买果酱的倾向上升了至少六倍

Now choosing not to buy a jar of jam

选择不买果酱

is probably good for us --

也许对我们来说是一件好事儿

at least it's good for our waistlines --

至少对我们的水桶腰来说，

but it turns out that this choice overload problem affects us

但是结果证明过度选择甚至在

even in very consequential decisions.

非常重要的决定上影响我们。

We choose not to choose,

我们甚至在有悖个人利益的情况下，

even when it goes against our best self-interests.

宁愿放弃选择。

So now for the topic of today: financial savings.

所以现在来介绍我们今天的话题：金融理财。

Now I'm going to describe to you a study I did

现在我要向你们介绍我与Gur Huberman, Emir Kamerica, Wei Jang

with Gur Huberman, Emir Kamenica, Wei Jang

一起做的一个关于

where we looked at the retirement savings decisions

近百万美国人在全美650多种

of nearly a million Americans

养老金计划中

from about 650 plans

选择的

all in the U.S.

研究。

And what we looked at

我们研究了

was whether the number of fund offerings

养老金计划，

available in a retirement savings plan,

也就是401（k)雇员福利中

the 401(k) plan,

所提供的基金选择数量，

does that affect people's likelihood

是否影响人们

to save more for tomorrow.

为未来存款的几率。

And what we found

我们发现，

was that indeed there was a correlation.

这之前却是有联系。

So in these plans, we had about 657 plans

于是在这些计划中，我们选择了657个

that ranged from offering people

从提供2到59种基金

anywhere from two to 59 different fund offerings.

的不同计划。

And what we found was that,

我们发现，

the more funds offered,

事实上，提供的基金越多，

indeed, there was less participation rate.

参购率就越低。

So if you look at the extremes,

所以如果观察一下极端的情况的话，

those plans that offered you two funds,

会发现那些提供给客户两种基金的计划

participation rates were around in the mid-70s --

的参购率在70左右，

still not as high as we want it to be.

仍然没有我们期待中的那么高。

In those plans that offered nearly 60 funds,

那些提供接近60种基金的计划，

participation rates have now dropped

参购率降低到了

to about the 60th percentile.

60多的参购率。

Now it turns out

由此看来，

that even if you do choose to participate

即使是你真的选择参与一个计划，

when there are more choices present,

当那么多计划摆在你面前时，

even then, it has negative consequences.

还是会造成负面的影响。

So for those people who did choose to participate,

所以对于那些选择参与计划的人来说，

the more choices available,

选择越多，

the more likely people were

他们越容易选择

to completely avoid stocks or equity funds.

完全避开股票或类似的基金。

The more choices available,

选择越多，

the more likely they were

越容易造成人们

to put all their money in pure money market accounts.

把钱存进单纯的存钱账户中。

Now neither of these extreme decisions

现在，这两种极端选择

are the kinds of decisions

没有一种是当考虑到朋友未来的生活时，

that any of us would recommend for people

我们会推荐给朋友的

when you're considering their future financial well-being.

好的选择。

Well, over the past decade,

在过去十年中，

we have observed three main negative consequences

我们观察到了提供人们越来越多的选择

to offering people more and more choices.

所造成的负面影响

They're more likely to delay choosing --

他们越来越容易推迟选择的过程，

procrastinate even when it goes against their best self-interest.

即使这样做会损害到自身的利益。

They're more likely to make worse choices --

人们更容易做出更差的选择-

worse financial choices, medical choices.

更差的理财选择，医疗选择。

They're more likely to choose things that make them less satisfied,

人们更容易选择那些令自己不满意的选项，

even when they do objectively better.

即使那些选择也许客观来讲并没有那么差。

The main reason for this

这是因为，

is because, we might enjoy gazing at those giant walls

虽然我们很享受看一排一排

of mayonnaises, mustards, vinegars, jams,

由美乃滋，黄芥末，醋和果酱建成的的高墙，

but we can't actually do the math of comparing and contrasting

却不愿意亲自比较

and actually picking from that stunning display.

然后在如此庞大的陈列中做出选择。

So what I want to propose to you today

所以今天我想向你们介绍

are four simple techniques --

四种简单的技巧-

techniques that we have tested in one way or another

它们都是你可以轻松地

in different research venues --

运用在生意上，

that you can easily apply

并且被测试过许多次的

in your businesses.

可靠技巧。

The first: Cut.

一：精减。

You've heard it said before,

你们以前也许听过，

but it's never been more true than today,

但这个说法在从前的社会从未像现今一样的适用-

that less is more.

“少即是多”

People are always upset when I say, "Cut."

每一次我说“精减"的时候，人们总是会很生气。

They're always worried they're going to lose shelf space.

他们担心这样做会导致他们丢失自我空间。

But in fact, what we're seeing more and more

但事实上，根据我们所观察到的是

is that if you are willing to cut,

当一个人越是愿意

get rid of those extraneous redundant options,

放弃多余的选择，

well there's an increase in sales,

使得营业额上升，

there's a lowering of costs,

价格降低，

there is an improvement of the choosing experience.

越是会改善原则的经历。

When Proctor & Gamble

当保洁公司

went from 26 different kinds of Head & Shoulders to 15,

将26种不同的海飞丝减至15种时，

they saw an increase in sales by 10 percent.

销售额上升了百分之十。

When the Golden Cat Corporation

当金猫公司

got rid of their 10 worst-selling cat litter products,

停止了他们的十种销售量最差的猫粮的销售，

they saw an increase in profits

盈利上升了

by 87 percent --

百分之八十七-

a function of both increase in sales

是又能增加销售额

and lowering of costs.

还降低了成本两全其美的好方法。

You know, the average grocery store today

正如你们所知道的，现在一个普通的杂货店

offers you 45,000 products.

提供45000种商品给你选择。

The typical Walmart today offers you 100,000 products.

一个典型的沃尔玛为你提供100000种商品。

But the ninth largest retailer,

但是，第九大的零售商

the ninth biggest retailer in the world today

今天世界上第九大的零售商，

is Aldi,

是阿尔迪，

and it offers you only 1,400 products --

而他们只提供给顾客1400种商品-

one kind of canned tomato sauce.

一种罐装番茄酱。

Now in the financial savings world,

在这个理财的世界中，

I think one of the best examples that has recently come out

我认为在关于如何最有效地管理选择中

on how to best manage the choice offerings

最好的例子是

has actually been something that David Laibson was heavily involved in designing,

David Laibson十分投入的

which was the program that they have at Harvard.

一个哈佛的项目。

Every single Harvard employee

哈佛的每一个教职工

is now automatically enrolled

都自动被登记加入

in a lifecycle fund.

一个生活周期基金中。

For those people who actually want to choose,

那些愿意自己选择的人，

they're given 20 funds,

有20种不同的基金选择，

not 300 or more funds.

而不是300种甚至更多。

You know, often, people say,

你知道，人们很喜欢说，

"I don't know how to cut.

”我不知道怎么消减

They're all important choices."

这些都是非常重要的选择。”

And the first thing I do is I ask the employees,

所以我做的第一件事是问这些教职工，

"Tell me how these choices are different from one another.

“告诉我这些选择与其他那些有何不同，

And if your employees can't tell them apart,

如果你的员工们不能分辨它们的不同，

neither can your consumers."

你的顾客肯定也不能。“

Now before we started our session this afternoon,

今天下午在这个活动开始之前，

I had a chat with Gary.

我跟Gary聊了一会儿。

And Gary said that he would be willing

Gary跟我说他愿意

to offer people in this audience

为今天在场的所有观众提供

an all-expenses-paid free vacation

一次到这个世界上最美的路的旅行，

to the most beautiful road in the world.

并且完全免费。

Here's a description of the road.

我希望你们读一下

And I'd like you to read it.

对这条路的描写。

And now I'll give you a few seconds to read it

现在我给你们几秒钟自己读一下，

and then I want you to clap your hands

如果你愿意接受Gary的提议的话，

if you're ready to take Gary up on his offer.

就请鼓掌。

(Light clapping)

（稀疏的掌声）

Okay. Anybody who's ready to take him up on his offer.

好，有人愿意接受他的提议么？

Is that all?

没有其他人了么？

All right, let me show you some more about this.

好吧，我多给你们看一些有关此事的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You guys knew there was a trick, didn't you.

你们早就知道这是个诡计了，是吧？

(Honk)

（汽车喇叭声）

Now who's ready to go on this trip.

现在，有谁愿意去这次旅行？

(Applause)

（观众鼓掌）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I think I might have actually heard more hands.

我以为我会听到更多掌声呢。

All right.

好吧，

Now in fact,

事实上，

you had objectively more information

客观地来讲，

the first time around than the second time around,

你们第一次的时候比第二次得到的信息要多，

but I would venture to guess

但是我冒昧地猜

that you felt that it was more real the second time around.

你们觉得第二次更真实一些。

Because the pictures made it feel

因为那些照片让你们

more real to you.

感觉更真实。

Which brings me to the second technique

而这个例子就是我们今天要讲的第二个

for handling the choice overload problem,

处理选择过多的技巧，

which is concretization.

具体化。

That in order for people to understand

为了令人们更好地理解

the differences between the choices,

众多选择之间的区别，

they have to be able to understand

他们必须理解，

the consequences associated with each choice,

每一个选择所将带来的后果，

and that the consequences need to be felt

而这些后果必须是可以

in a vivid sort of way, in a very concrete way.

十分清晰、具体地感受到的。

Why do people spend an average of 15 to 30 percent more

为什么人们平均每天花

when they use an ATM card or a credit card

比用现今多15%到30%的时间

as opposed to cash?

在自动提款机或信用卡上呢？

Because it doesn't feel like real money.

因为那样感觉不像是真正的钱。

And it turns out

所以

that making it feel more concrete

原来使感觉更具体化

can actually be a very positive tool

可以成为令人们节约的

to use in getting people to save more.

好方法。

So a study that I did with Shlomo Benartzi

所以在一个我与Shlomo Benartzi

and Alessandro Previtero,

和Alessandro Precitero做的研究中，

we did a study with people at ING --

我们和所有ING（荷兰国际集团）的

employees that are all working at ING --

员工一起做了一个研究，

and now these people were all in a session

所有人都参加了一个

where they're doing enrollment for their 401(k) plan.

一起注册401(k)雇员福利的会议。

And during that session,

在这个过程中

we kept the session exactly the way it used to be,

我们在保持每个会议完全相同的情况下，

but we added one little thing.

加了一个小东西。

The one little thing we added

我们加的是，

was we asked people

让他们

to just think about all the positive things that would happen in your life

每个人都想象如果多存一些

if you saved more.

生命中可能会发生的那些美好的事情。

By doing that simple thing,

仅仅是这样做后，

there was an increase in enrollment by 20 percent

参与率上升了百分之二十，

and there was an increase in the amount of people willing to save

人们愿意存钱的数额或者说是

or the amount that they were willing to put down into their savings account

愿意放进自己储蓄账户的金额增长了

by four percent.

百分之四。

The third technique: Categorization.

第三个技巧：分类。

We can handle more categories

相比处理选择来说，

than we can handle choices.

我们可以轻松处理更多类别。

So for example,

比如说，

here's a study we did in a magazine aisle.

我们做了一个有关买杂志类过道的研究，

It turns out that in Wegmans grocery stores

发现在Wegmans百货商店中，

up and down the northeast corridor,

在东北走廊的地方，

the magazine aisles range anywhere

买杂志的那一栏

from 331 different kinds of magazines

有331到

all the way up to 664.

甚至664种杂志。

But you know what?

但是你们知道么？

If I show you 600 magazines

如果我先给你们看600本杂志，

and I divide them up into 10 categories,

然后把它们分成10类，

versus I show you 400 magazines

然后再给你们看400本杂志，

and divide them up into 20 categories,

但是分成20类，

you believe that I have given you

你们会相信，

more choice and a better choosing experience

当我给你们看

if I gave you the 400

400本杂志时

than if I gave you the 600.

比给你们600本时的选择更多，选择体验更好。

Because the categories tell me how to tell them apart.

因为类别可以帮我分辨它们的区别。

Here are two different jewelry displays.

这里有两个不同的珠宝展示，

One is called "Jazz" and the other one is called "Swing."

一个叫“爵士”，另一个叫“摇摆”

If you think the display on the left is Swing

如果你觉得左边的是“摇摆”

and the display on the right is Jazz,

右边的是“爵士”

clap your hands.

就请鼓掌。

(Light Clapping)

（稀疏的掌声）

Okay, there's some.

好吧，有一些。

If you think the one on the left is Jazz and the one on the right is Swing,

如果你觉得左边的是“爵士”， 右边的是“摇摆”

clap your hands.

请鼓掌。

Okay, a bit more.

稍微多一点儿了。

Now it turns out you're right.

你们是对的。

The one on the left is Jazz and the one on the right is Swing,

左边的的确是“爵士”，而右边的正是“摇摆”，

but you know what?

但是你知道么？

This is a highly useless categorization scheme.

这是一个十分无用的分类阴谋。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The categories need to say something

类别必须可以告诉

to the chooser, not the choice-maker.

选择者一些事情，而不是创造选择的人。

And you often see that problem

你们也许可以在

when it comes down to those long lists of all these funds.

那些冗长的基金名单中看到这个问题。

Who are they actually supposed to be informing?

到底谁才是应该得到信息的人呢？

My fourth technique: Condition for complexity.

我的第四个技巧是：从简入繁

It turns out we can actually

事实上，我们所能

handle a lot more information than we think we can,

承受的信息量比我们想象的要高，

we've just got to take it a little easier.

我们需要做的就是用轻松地面度对待。

We have to gradually increase the complexity.

我们必须逐渐加大复杂程度。

I'm going to show you one example of what I'm talking about.

现在我给你们举一个有关的例子。

Let's take a very, very complicated decision:

我们来一起做一个非常非常复杂的决定：

buying a car.

买车。

Here's a German car manufacturer

现在有一个德国制造商，

that gives you the opportunity to completely custom make your car.

愿意让你定制一辆完全个性化的车。

You've got to make 60 different decisions,

你必须要做60个不同的决定

completely make up your car.

才能做好这辆车。

Now these decisions vary

这些决定包括

in the number of choices that they offer per decision.

每一个决定所提供的选择。

Car colors, exterior car colors --

光车的颜色，内置的颜色

I've got 56 choices.

就有56种选择。

Engines, gearshift -- four choices.

有四种发动机，变速排档选择。

So now what I'm going to do

现在我要做的是

is I'm going to vary the order in which these decisions appear.

改变这些要做的决定出线的顺序。

So half of the customers

所以，一般的观众

are going to go from high choice, 56 car colors,

要从选择多的决定开始-56种颜色

to low choice, four gearshifts.

开始到选择少的决定-四种变速排档。

The other half of the customers

另外一半的观众

are going to go from low choice, four gearshifts,

要从选择少的决定，四种变档开始

to 56 car colors, high choice.

到56种车颜色，选择多的决定

What am I going to look at?

我想要观察什么呢？

How engaged you are.

你们有多积极。

If you keep hitting the default button per decision,

如果你不停地按默认选项的话

that means you're getting overwhelmed,

就说明你已经被选择淹没了，

that means I'm losing you.

也就是说我正在失去你的参与。

What you find

你会发现，

is the people who go from high choice to low choice,

从选择多的开始到选择少的人

they're hitting that default button over and over and over again.

会不停地选择默认选项。

We're losing them.

我们就会逐渐失去他们了

They go from low choice to high choice,

那些从选择少开始到选择多的人，

they're hanging in there.

还在坚持着。

It's the same information. It's the same number of choices.

可是他们所得到的信息是完全一样的。所要做的选择也是一样的。

The only thing that I have done

我所做的唯一一件事就是

is I have varied the order

改变了

in which that information is presented.

信息所出现的顺序。

If I start you off easy,

如果我给你一个轻松的开始，

I learn how to choose.

教你如何选择。

Even though choosing gearshift

即使选择变速排档

doesn't tell me anything about my preferences for interior decor,

不能说明我对车内颜色的偏好

it still prepares me for how to choose.

却仍能教会我如何去选择。

It also gets me excited about this big product that I'm putting together,

另一件令我兴奋的事实是我所要组成的是如此一个庞然大物，

so I'm more willing to be motivated

所以我变得更有动力

to be engaged.

去参与。

So let me recap.

让我重新整理一下重点，

I have talked about four techniques

我讲了四种可以减缓过多选择的

for mitigating the problem of choice overload --

技巧-

cut -- get rid of the extraneous alternatives;

精简-放弃没有用的选择；

concretize -- make it real;

具体化-让选择变得更真实一些；

categorize -- we can handle more categories, less choices;

分类-我们能承受的类别比选择多；

condition for complexity.

从简入繁。

All of these techniques that I'm describing to you today

今天我所讲的所有技巧，

are designed to help you manage your choices --

都是为了帮助你更好地管理选择而设计的-

better for you, you can use them on yourself,

使用这些技巧对你更好，

better for the people that you are serving.

也对你所服务的那些人更好。

Because I believe that the key

所以我相信

to getting the most from choice

从选择中获益最多的关键是

is to be choosy about choosing.

对选择挑剔一些。

And the more we're able to be choosy about choosing

我们对选择越是挑剔

the better we will be able

就越能

to practice the art of choosing.

掌握选择的艺术。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（观众鼓掌）