How germs travel on planes -- and how we can stop them | Raymond Wang

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Milenka Okuka

Can I get a show of hands --

Možete li dići ruke -

how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year?

koliko vas u ovoj prostoriji je ove godine bilo u avionu?

That's pretty good.

To je prilično dobro.

Well, it turns out that you share that experience

Pa, ispostavlja se da to iskustvo delite

with more than three billion people every year.

sa više od tri milijarde ljudi svake godine.

And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes

A kada stavimo toliko ljudi u ove metalne cevi

that fly all over the world,

koje lete širom sveta,

sometimes, things like this can happen

ponekad mogu da se dese ovakve stvari

and you get a disease epidemic.

i dobijete epidemiju zaraze.

I first actually got into this topic

Ova me je tema zapravo zainteresovala

when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year.

kada sam prošle godine čuo za epidemiju ebole.

And it turns out that,

Ispostavlja se da,

although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited,

iako se ebola širi kroz puteve koji su više ograničeni prostorom

large-droplet routes,

i imaju veće tragove,

there's all these other sorts of diseases

postoje druge vrste bolesti

that can be spread in the airplane cabin.

koje se mogu širiti kroz kabinu aviona.

The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers,

Najgore je to što kada pogledamo neke od ovih brojki,

it's pretty scary.

prilično je strašno.

So with H1N1,

Sa H1N1,

there was this guy that decided to go on the plane

bio je tip koji je odlučio da se ukrca na avion

and in the matter of a single flight

i za vreme jednog leta

actually spread the disease to 17 other people.

zapravo je preneo zarazu na 17 drugih ljudi.

And then there was this other guy with SARS,

A bio je i drugi tip sa SARS-om,

who managed to go on a three-hour flight

koji je uspeo da se ukrca na let od tri sada

and spread the disease to 22 other people.

i prenese zarazu na 22 drugih ljudi.

That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.

To nije moja zamisao velike supersile.

When we take a look at this, what we also find

Kada ovo pogledamo, takođe otkrivamo

is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases.

da je veoma teško unapred pregledati ljude na ove bolesti.

So when someone actually goes on a plane,

Kada se neko zapravo ukrca na let,

they could be sick

ta osoba može biti bolesna

and they could actually be in this latency period

i zapravo može da bude u latentnom periodu

in which they could actually have the disease

gde može da ima zarazu

but not exhibit any symptoms,

ali da ne pokazuju simptome,

and they could, in turn, spread the disease

a zauzvrat može da raširi zarazu

to many other people in the cabin.

na mnoge druge ljude u kabini.

How that actually works is that right now

To funkcioniše tako što

we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin

imamo vazduh koji ulazi sa vrha kabine

and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue.

i sa strana kabine, kao što vidite u plavoj boji.

And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters

Vazduh takođe onda izlazi kroz ove veoma efikasne filtere

that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets.

koji eliminišu 99,97% patogena blizu izlaza.

What happens right now, though,

Trenutno se ipak dešava

is that we have this mixing airflow pattern.

da imamo ovaj šablon mešanja toka vazduha.

So if someone were to actually sneeze,

Tako da, kada bi neko kinuo,

that air would get swirled around multiple times

taj vazduh bi se zakovitlao nekoliko puta

before it even has a chance to go out through the filter.

pre nego što uopšte dobije priliku da izađe kroz filter.

So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.

Pomislio sam, ovo je očigledno veoma ozbiljan problem.

I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane,

Nisam imao novac da odem i kupim avion,

so I decided to build a computer instead.

pa sam odlučio da napravim kompjuter.

It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics,

Zapravo se ispostavlja da računarskom dinamikom fluida

what we're able to do is create these simulations

možemo da stvorimo ove simulacije

that give us higher resolutions

koje nam daju veće rezolucije

than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane.

nego kada bi fizički otišli i uzeli uzorke iz aviona.

And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out

Ovo zapravo funkcioniše

with these 2D drawings --

tako što počnete 2D crtežima

these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet.

koji lebde po internetu u tehničkoj dokumentaciji.

I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software,

Uzimam to i onda ga stavljam u ovaj program za 3D modelovanje

really building that 3D model.

i zaista napravim taj 3D model.

And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces,

Onda taj model koji sam napravio izdelim na komadiće

essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it.

i u suštini ga zgnječim tako da ga kompjuter bolje razume.

And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin,

Onda kompjuteru kažem gde vazduh ulazi i izlazi u kabini,

throw in a bunch of physics

ubacim fiziku u kombinaciju

and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.

i sedim i čekam dok kompjuter izračuna simulaciju.

So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this:

Sa uobičajenom kabinom zapravo dobijamo ovo:

you'll notice the middle person sneezing,

primetićete da osoba u sredini kija,

and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces.

i desi se "Fljas!" - odleti pravo u lica ljudima.

It's pretty disgusting.

Prilično je odvratno.

From the front, you'll notice those two passengers

Sa prednje strane, primetićete dva putnika

sitting next to the central passenger

koja sede pored onog u sredini

not exactly having a great time.

i nije baš da se provode.

And when we take a look at that from the side,

A kada to pogledamo sa strane,

you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.

ptimetićete i te patogene kako se šire duž kabine.

The first thing I thought was, "This is no good."

Prvo što sam pomislio bilo je: "Ovo nije dobro".

So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations

Prvo sam sproveo više od 32 različite simulacije

and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here.

i na kraju sam došao do ovog rešenja.

This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director.

Ovo nazivam - podneo sam zahtev za patent, Globalni upravljač ulaza.

With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission

Ovim možemo da smanjimo prenos patogena

by about 55 times,

za oko 55 puta,

and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.

a da povećamo udisanje svežeg vazduha za oko 190 procenata.

So how this actually works

Ovo funkcioniše

is we would install this piece of composite material

tako što ugradimo ovaj komad kompozitnog materijala

into these existing spots that are already in the plane.

u ova postojeća mesta u avionu.

So it's very cost-effective to install

Veoma je ekonomično za ugradnju

and we can do this directly overnight.

i može se uraditi direktno za jedan dan.

All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go.

Sve što treba da uradimo je da zavrnemo par šrafova i spremni ste za put.

And the results that we get are absolutely amazing.

Rezultati koje dobijamo zaista su neverovatni.

Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns,

Umesto problematičnih šablona vazdušnog toka koji krivuda,

we can create these walls of air

možemo stvoriti ove vazdušne zidove

that come down in-between the passengers

koji se spuštaju između putnika

to create personalized breathing zones.

i stvaraju lične prostore za disanje.

So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again,

Primetićete da putnik u sredini ovde opet kija,

but this time, we're able to effectively push that down

ali ovog puta to možemo efektivno da suzbijemo

to the filters for elimination.

do filtera radi eliminisanja.

And same thing from the side,

Isto je i sa strane,

you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down.

primetićete da možemo direktno da suzbijemo patogene.

So if you take a look again now at the same scenario

Ako opet pogledate isti scenario,

but with this innovation installed,

ali sa ugrađenom inovacijom,

you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes,

primetićete da srednji putnik kija

and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet

a ovoga puta to suzbijamo direktno do izlaza

before it gets a chance to infect any other people.

pre nego što dobije priliku da zarazi nekog drugog.

So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy

Primetićete dva putnika koja sede pored tipa u sredini

are breathing virtually no pathogens at all.

i dišu skoro bez ikakvih patogena.

Take a look at that from the side as well,

Pogledajte to i sa strane,

you see a very efficient system.

vidite veoma efikasan sistem.

And in short, with this system, we win.

Ukratko, ovim sistemom pobeđujemo.

When we take a look at what this means,

Kada pogledamo šta ovo znači,

what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes,

vidimo da ovo ne samo da funkcioniše ako srednji putnik kine,

but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes

nego i ako putnik do prozora kine

or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.

ili ako kine putnik do prolaza.

And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world?

Šta ovo rešenje znači za svet?

Well, when we take a look at this

Kada pogledamo ovo

from the computer simulation into real life,

od kompjuterske simulacije do stvarnog života,

we can see with this 3D model that I built over here,

sa ovim 3D modelom koji sam napravio koristeći 3D štampanje,

essentially using 3D printing,

možemo videti

we can see those same airflow patterns coming down,

iste te šablone vazduha koji se spušta,

right to the passengers.

sve do putnika.

In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world

U prošlosti, epidemija SARS-a koštala je svet

about 40 billion dollars.

oko 40 milijardi dolara.

And in the future,

A u budućnosti,

a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world

velika epidemija zaraze zapravo bi svet mogla da košta

in excess of three trillion dollars.

više od tri biliona dolara.

So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service

Pre ste morali da avion povučete van službe

for one to two months,

na jedan do dva meseca,

spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars

provedete desetine hiljada sati i nekoliko miliona dolara

to try to change something.

pokušavajući da promenite nešto.

But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight

Sada možemo da ugradimo nešto skoro preko noći

and see results right away.

i da odmah vidimo rezultate.

So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification,

Sada je zaista stvar u tome da se ovo sertfikuje,

flight testing,

testira na letovima,

and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes.

i da se prođu svi procesi pravila odobravanja.

But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions

Ovim se samo pokazuje da su nekada najbolja rešenja

are the simplest solutions.

ona najjednostavnija.

And two years ago, even,

Pre samo dve godine,

this project would not have happened,

ovaj projekat se ne bi desio,

just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it.

prosto zato što tadašnja tehnologija to nije podržavala.

But now with advanced computing

Ali sadašnjim naprednim izračunavanjem

and how developed our Internet is,

i razvijenošću interneta,

it's really the golden era for innovation.

ovo je zaista zlatno doba inovacija.

And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait?

Pitanje koje želim da postavim danas je, zašto da čekamo?

Together, we can build the future today.

Zajedno možemo ostvariti budućnost danas.

Thanks.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)