How germs travel on planes -- and how we can stop them | Raymond Wang

翻译人员: Jacky KA 校对人员: Huazhe Xie

Can I get a show of hands --

可不可以请大家举一下手——

how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year?

这里有多少人在过去一年中搭乘过飞机？

That's pretty good.

看起来很多啊。

Well, it turns out that you share that experience

那么，事实证明你每年会与

with more than three billion people every year.

超过30亿人共享飞行的经历。

And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes

当我们把这么多人放入所有这些

that fly all over the world,

满世界飞行的金属管时，

sometimes, things like this can happen

有时会发生这样的事情——

and you get a disease epidemic.

你会感染一种传染病。

I first actually got into this topic

我最初开始这个课题，

when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year.

是在去年听说了埃博拉疫情爆发的时候。

And it turns out that,

事实表明，

although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited,

尽管埃博拉病毒是在很有限的范围内，

large-droplet routes,

以飞沫传染的方式进行传播的，

there's all these other sorts of diseases

还有其它很多种疾病

that can be spread in the airplane cabin.

也会在机舱中传播。

The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers,

最糟糕的是， 当我们看到一些数字时，

it's pretty scary.

会感到很恐惧。

So with H1N1,

携带有H1N1的这家伙

there was this guy that decided to go on the plane

决定了要登上飞机，

and in the matter of a single flight

就单个航班而言，

他可以把疾病传播给其他17个人。

actually spread the disease to 17 other people.

And then there was this other guy with SARS,

还有另一个家伙携带有“非典“病菌,

who managed to go on a three-hour flight

登上了一个三小时的航班，

and spread the disease to 22 other people.

并把疾病传播给了其他22个人。

That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.

我原先并不知道这种传染性竟然这么强。

When we take a look at this, what we also find

看一下这张图，我们也会发现，

is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases.

事先筛查出这些疾病是非常困难的。

So when someone actually goes on a plane,

所以，当有人上了飞机，

they could be sick

他们可能是病人，

and they could actually be in this latency period

也可能处于疾病的潜伏期，

in which they could actually have the disease

也就是说他们会得上这种病，

but not exhibit any symptoms,

但是海没有表现出任何症状，

and they could, in turn, spread the disease

于是他们就可能把疾病传染给

to many other people in the cabin.

机舱中的其他人。

How that actually works is that right now

这到底是怎么传播的呢？

we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin

事实上，空气由机舱的顶部和侧边进入，

and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue.

就是你们看到的蓝色箭头的位置。

And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters

然后，空气通过这些 高效的过滤器离开机舱，

that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets.

出口附近99.97%的病菌都会被过滤掉。

What happens right now, though,

然而，目前的情况是，

is that we have this mixing airflow pattern.

空气是按这种混合气流的方式流动着。

So if someone were to actually sneeze,

所以如果有人打了个喷嚏，

that air would get swirled around multiple times

周围的空气就会呈漩涡态反复打转，

before it even has a chance to go out through the filter.

然后才有机会从过滤器排出。

So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.

所以我觉得这明显是个严重的问题。

我买不起飞机，

I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane,

so I decided to build a computer instead.

所以我决定弄台计算机试试看。

It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics,

事实表明，利用计算流体动力学，

what we're able to do is create these simulations

我们就能够模拟这些情况，

that give us higher resolutions

相较于真正进入飞机获取数据，

than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane.

这样其实更方便进行数据解析。

And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out

我们的工作是从这些

with these 2D drawings --

2D图形开始的——

these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet.

网络上有很多关于这方面的技术论文。

I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software,

我把它们导入到3D模型软件中，

really building that 3D model.

建立了那个3D模型。

And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces,

然后我把刚刚建好的模型分解成小块，

essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it.

彻底打碎这个模型， 使得计算机能够更好地理解每组数据。

And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin,

然后我告诉计算机空气出入机舱的位置，

throw in a bunch of physics

在机舱内放置一些物体，

and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.

然后基本就可以坐在一边 直到计算机模拟完成。

So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this:

若是用传统的机舱，我们得到的结果是，

you'll notice the middle person sneezing,

中间的乘客打喷嚏时，

and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces.

在“阿欠”一声后气流 就会喷向人们的脸部。

It's pretty disgusting.

实在有点恶心。

From the front, you'll notice those two passengers

从前面看，中间乘客身旁的

两位乘客，

sitting next to the central passenger

not exactly having a great time.

肯定不会开心。

And when we take a look at that from the side,

从侧边观察一下，

you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.

你也会发现那些病菌 会在机舱内前后传播。

The first thing I thought was, "This is no good."

我的第一反应是“这样可不好”。

So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations

我实际上创建了 32个不同的情况的模拟，

and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here.

并最终得到了这个解决方案。

This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director.

我称它为——专利审核中的—— 环流入口导向器。

With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission

有了这个，我们可以把 病菌传播的可能性

by about 55 times,

降低55倍，

and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.

并可以增加190%可吸入的新鲜空气。

So how this actually works

那么在实际过程中如何使用呢？

我们只需要把这块复合材料

is we would install this piece of composite material

into these existing spots that are already in the plane.

安装到飞机上已经存在的这些位置。

So it's very cost-effective to install

安装成本非常低，

and we can do this directly overnight.

只需要一个晚上就能全部安装好。

所有的工作仅仅是要 上几颗螺丝，非常简单。

All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go.

And the results that we get are absolutely amazing.

我们得到的结果非常惊人。

Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns,

避开了那些有问题的漩涡气流模式，

we can create these walls of air

我们能够在乘客中间，

that come down in-between the passengers

建立起这些空气墙，

to create personalized breathing zones.

从而创造出私人的呼吸区域。

So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again,

这样你会发现当中间的乘客 再打喷嚏时，

but this time, we're able to effectively push that down

我们就能够有效地迫使 带有病菌的空气向下流动，

to the filters for elimination.

直接经过滤器排出。

And same thing from the side,

从侧边再看一下，

you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down.

可以看到我们能够直接让病菌向下流动。

So if you take a look again now at the same scenario

安装了这个新的设计，

but with this innovation installed,

现在再看一下同样的情形，

you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes,

你会发现中间乘客打喷嚏时，

and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet

我们能够在其他人受到影响之前，

before it gets a chance to infect any other people.

直接把病菌向下推送并排出机舱。

So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy

可以看到中间乘客身边的两位乘客

are breathing virtually no pathogens at all.

安全不会吸入病菌。

Take a look at that from the side as well,

再从侧边看一下，

you see a very efficient system.

这是一个非常有效的系统。

And in short, with this system, we win.

总而言之，有了这个系统，我们赢了。

当我们再进一步看看它的效果，

When we take a look at what this means,

what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes,

可以看到这不仅在当中间位置的乘客 打喷嚏时有效，

but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes

也对窗边或者过道边的乘客

or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.

非常有效。

And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world?

那么，这个解决方案 对全世界意味着什么了？

Well, when we take a look at this

当我们把视角从计算机模拟

from the computer simulation into real life,

转换到现实生活时，

we can see with this 3D model that I built over here,

在利用3D打印

essentially using 3D printing,

做好了这个3D模型后，

we can see those same airflow patterns coming down,

我们能够看到气流直接

对着乘客往下流动。

right to the passengers.

In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world

在过去，“非典”足足花费了

about 40 billion dollars.

全世界400亿美元。

And in the future,

在将来，

a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world

一个大型疾病的爆发可能会 花费全世界

in excess of three trillion dollars.

超过3万亿美元。

So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service

以前，我们经常不得不让飞机

for one to two months,

停飞一两个月，

spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars

花费大量人力以及巨资，

to try to change something.

来试着解决一些问题。

But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight

但现在我们只需花上一个晚上 安装一下这个东西，

and see results right away.

效果就立竿见影了。

So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification,

实际上，现在只需要 把这个结果拿去认证，

flight testing,

进行飞行测试，

and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes.

再通过这些常规的 批准过程就可以了。

事实表明，有时最好的解决方案

But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions

恰恰就是最简单的。

are the simplest solutions.

And two years ago, even,

然而就两年前，

this project would not have happened,

这个项目甚至不可能实施，

just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it.

只是因为那时的技术 还无法实现这种设计。

But now with advanced computing

但是有了先进的计算技术

and how developed our Internet is,

和如此发达的网络，

it's really the golden era for innovation.

我们现在真的处于创新的黄金时期。

And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait?

所以今天我要问大家的问题是： 还在等什么呢？

Together, we can build the future today.

一起努力，我们今天就能创造未来。

Thanks.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）