How germs travel on planes -- and how we can stop them | Raymond Wang

譯者: Dian Yu 審譯者: 易帆 余

Can I get a show of hands --

可不可以請大家舉一下手——

how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year?

這裡有多少人，在過去一年有搭過飛機？

非常好，

That's pretty good.

Well, it turns out that you share that experience

事實證明，你與每年超過三十億的人口

分享了同樣的飛行經歷。

with more than three billion people every year.

當我們把這麼多人

And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes

放在那些全世界 滿天飛的金屬艙里時，

that fly all over the world,

sometimes, things like this can happen

有時會發生這樣的事情：

and you get a disease epidemic.

比如傳染性疾病的感染。

I first actually got into this topic

我最初進入這個課題

when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year.

是在去年聽說了埃博拉疫情爆發的時候。

And it turns out that,

事實證明，儘管埃博拉病毒是在很有限的 範圍內，以飛沫傳染的方式進行傳播的，

although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited,

large-droplet routes,

there's all these other sorts of diseases

但仍有很多其它的疾病 會在機艙中傳播。

that can be spread in the airplane cabin.

The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers,

最糟的是，當我們看到這些數據時，

it's pretty scary.

真的令人感到害怕。

So with H1N1,

假如一個攜帶有H1N1病毒的傢伙 決定了要登上飛機，

there was this guy that decided to go on the plane

and in the matter of a single flight

光是單次航班，他就會把 疾病傳播給17個人。

actually spread the disease to 17 other people.

And then there was this other guy with SARS,

再假如還有另一個傢伙感染了SARS，

who managed to go on a three-hour flight

登上了一個三小時的航班，

and spread the disease to 22 other people.

那麼他可以把疾病傳播給22個人。

That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.

我沒有料想到病毒在飛機上 的傳播力如此驚人。

When we take a look at this, what we also find

看一下這張圖，我們會發現，

is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases.

要事先篩檢出這些疾病是非常困難的，

So when someone actually goes on a plane,

所以，那些上了飛機的人

they could be sick

and they could actually be in this latency period

他們可能患了疾病，

只是當時仍在潛伏期

in which they could actually have the disease

but not exhibit any symptoms,

尚未表現出任何症狀，

and they could, in turn, spread the disease

於是他們就可能把疾病傳染

to many other people in the cabin.

給機艙中的其他旅客。

How that actually works is that right now

那麼這究竟是如何發生的呢？

we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin

空氣是由機艙內上方 及側邊的出氣口進入，

and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue.

正如圖上的藍色箭頭所示。

And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters

然後，空氣經由高效的 過濾設備排出機艙，

that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets.

其中99.7%的病菌都可被除去。

然而，實際情況是，

What happens right now, though,

is that we have this mixing airflow pattern.

空氣是以複雜的混合氣流 模式在機艙內流通，

So if someone were to actually sneeze,

所以如果有人打了噴嚏，

that air would get swirled around multiple times

周圍空氣就會多次成渦旋態打轉，

before it even has a chance to go out through the filter.

然後才有機會從過濾器排除。

So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.

所以我認為，很明顯， 這是個嚴重的問題，

I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane,

我沒有足夠的錢 去買台飛機，

so I decided to build a computer instead.

所以乾脆搞一部電腦來代替。

It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics,

事實表明，利用流體動力學進行模擬，

what we're able to do is create these simulations

比親自搭飛機採集數據更能精確地 得到我們所需要的結果，

that give us higher resolutions

than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane.

And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out

那麼要如何開始呢？

with these 2D drawings --

你可以從網路上的技術資料中 找到這些二維平面圖。

these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet.

I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software,

我將它們導入到這個3D模型軟體中，

really building that 3D model.

實際地建構一個3D模型。

And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces,

然後把剛才建置的模型分成小部分，

essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it.

有效編排後，讓電腦能夠 更好地讀取信息。

And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin,

然後我告訴電腦， 機艙內氣體流動的狀況，

throw in a bunch of physics

運用一些物理學知識，

and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.

然後只要坐在一邊， 等電腦模擬出結果就可以了。

So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this:

所以，傳統機艙中 得到的結果是這樣的：

you'll notice the middle person sneezing,

你會注意到，當中間這個人打噴嚏時，

and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces.

我們也會“啪的一聲”，被噴得滿臉都是，

It's pretty disgusting.

非常噁心。

From the front, you'll notice those two passengers

從正面來看，你會注意到旁邊的兩位乘客

sitting next to the central passenger

not exactly having a great time.

也完全無法避免。

And when we take a look at that from the side,

我們從側面來看，

you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.

你也會注意病原體 可以橫跨整個機艙。

我的第一反應是＂這下真的不妙了＂。

The first thing I thought was, "This is no good."

So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations

所以我又模擬了超過32種不同的情況，

and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here.

最後想到這個辦法。

This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director.

我稱之為全方位進氣導引器（專利申請中），

With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission

此裝置能將病原體 傳播的可能性減少55倍，

by about 55 times,

and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.

將空氣清新度提升190%。

So how this actually works

那麼它具體是怎麼工作的呢？

is we would install this piece of composite material

我們只需要把這塊複合材料 裝在飛機上現有的氣孔上，

into these existing spots that are already in the plane.

So it's very cost-effective to install

這非常合乎成本效益，

and we can do this directly overnight.

工期非常短。

我們只要鎖上螺絲便大功告成，

All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go.

And the results that we get are absolutely amazing.

結果讓我們很驚訝。

Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns,

避開了那些有問題的漩渦氣流模式，

we can create these walls of air

取而代之的是，我們在乘客中間 建立了這些空氣牆，

that come down in-between the passengers

to create personalized breathing zones.

來創造出私人的呼吸領域。

So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again,

這樣你會發現當中間的乘客 再打噴嚏時，

but this time, we're able to effectively push that down

我們就能夠有效地迫使帶有病菌 的空氣向下流動，直接經由過濾器排出。

to the filters for elimination.

And same thing from the side,

同樣從側邊再看一下，

you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down.

你可以注意到我們也可以 將這些氣體直接下沉。

So if you take a look again now at the same scenario

安裝了這個新的設計，

現在再看一下同樣的情形，

but with this innovation installed,

you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes,

你會發現中間乘客打噴嚏時，

and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet

這次我們能夠在病原體感染其他人之前， 直接把牠傳送到濾氣孔。

before it gets a chance to infect any other people.

So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy

所以，你可以注意到，

中間乘客身邊的兩位乘客 完全不會吸入病菌。

are breathing virtually no pathogens at all.

Take a look at that from the side as well,

也可以從側面看出，

you see a very efficient system.

這个系統非常有效。

And in short, with this system, we win.

總而言之，有了這個系統，我們贏了。

When we take a look at what this means,

所以當我們再進一步 看看它的效果時，

what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes,

可以看到，這不僅在中間位置 的乘客打噴嚏時有效，

but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes

也對窗邊或者走道邊 的乘客非常有效。

or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.

And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world?

那麼，這個解決方案對世界有甚麼意義？

Well, when we take a look at this

現在我們從電腦模擬 轉移到現實生活中來，

from the computer simulation into real life,

we can see with this 3D model that I built over here,

在利用3D列印 做好這個3D模型後，

essentially using 3D printing,

we can see those same airflow patterns coming down,

我們能夠看到氣流 直接對著乘客往下流動。

right to the passengers.

In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world

過去， 流感SARS讓整個世界

about 40 billion dollars.

損失大約四百億元。

And in the future,

未來，一場嚴重傳染性疾病的爆發

a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world

in excess of three trillion dollars.

可能花費全球超過三萬億美元。

So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service

過去，你通常得讓飛機停飛一兩個月，

for one to two months,

spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars

投入好幾萬小時的人力、花數百萬元

to try to change something.

來試著解決一些問題。

But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight

但現在，我們只需花上一個晚上 安裝一下這個東西，

and see results right away.

馬上就可以看到結果。

So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification,

實際上，現在只需要 把這個結果拿去認證，

flight testing,

and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes.

進行飛行測試，再通過這些常規的 批准過程就可以了。

But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions

這也說明，有時候最好的辦法

are the simplest solutions.

其實就是最簡單的方式。

And two years ago, even,

但在兩年前，這個項目 根本沒有辦法實施，

this project would not have happened,

just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it.

只因為當時的技術還不夠成熟。

But now with advanced computing

但如今，有了先進的運算方式及 網路的蓬勃發展，

and how developed our Internet is,

it's really the golden era for innovation.

現在正是創新的黃金時代。

And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait?

所以我今天要問大家的是： 『還在等什麼？』

Together, we can build the future today.

以我們共同的力量， 我們今天就可以創造未來。

Thanks.

謝謝大家！

(Applause)

（掌聲）