How germs travel on planes -- and how we can stop them | Raymond Wang

Prevoditelj: Matko Bošnjak Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Can I get a show of hands --

Dignite ruku --

how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year?

svi vi koji ste putovali avionom unazad godinu dana.

That's pretty good.

Odlično

Well, it turns out that you share that experience

Ispada da dijelite to iskustvo

with more than three billion people every year.

s više od tri milijarde ljudi svake godine.

And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes

A kada strpamo toliko ljudi u sve te metalne cijevi

that fly all over the world,

što lete diljem svijeta,

sometimes, things like this can happen

ponekada se ovakve stvari dogode

and you get a disease epidemic.

i dobijemo epidemiju bolesti.

I first actually got into this topic

Prvi puta sam se počeo baviti ovom temom

when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year.

prošle godine, kada sam čuo za epidemiju Ebole.

And it turns out that,

I ispada da,

although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited,

iako se Ebola širi tjelesnim tekućinama velikih kapljica

large-droplet routes,

ograničenim dosegom,

there's all these other sorts of diseases

postoji širok spektar drugih bolesti

that can be spread in the airplane cabin.

koje se mogu raširiti avionskom kabinom.

The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers,

Najgore je da kada gledamo razne statistike,

it's pretty scary.

to je prilično zastrašujuće.

So with H1N1,

Na primjeru H1N1,

there was this guy that decided to go on the plane

jedan je čovjek odlučio ući u avion

and in the matter of a single flight

te je za vrijeme jednog jedinog leta

actually spread the disease to 17 other people.

uspio zaraziti 17 osoba.

And then there was this other guy with SARS,

Jedan drugi čovjek, zaražen SARS-om,

who managed to go on a three-hour flight

se ukrcao na trosatni let

and spread the disease to 22 other people.

i zarazio 22 osobe.

That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.

Nije baš nešto čime se ti ljudi mogu ponositi.

When we take a look at this, what we also find

Analizirajući situaciju, pronalazimo da je

is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases.

zaista vrlo teško zapaziti ove bolesti.

So when someone actually goes on a plane,

Tako da kada se neka osoba ukrca na avion,

they could be sick

ona može biti oboljela

and they could actually be in this latency period

i mogla bi zaista biti u periodu latentnosti

in which they could actually have the disease

u kojem bi mogla biti nositelj bolesti

but not exhibit any symptoms,

bez ikakvih simptoma,

and they could, in turn, spread the disease

i mogla bi, zauzvrat, zaraziti

to many other people in the cabin.

mnoge osobe u avionu.

How that actually works is that right now

Kako se to zaista događa je

we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin

da zrak ulazi kroz gornji dio kabine

and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue.

i s obje strane kabine, označeno plavim strelicama.

And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters

Taj zrak zatim izlazi kroz vrlo učinkovite filtere

that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets.

koji eliminiraju 99.97 posto patogena blizu ispusta.

What happens right now, though,

Međutim, ono što se događa

is that we have this mixing airflow pattern.

je pojava kružnog protoka miješanog zraka.

So if someone were to actually sneeze,

Tako da ako netko kihne,

that air would get swirled around multiple times

taj zrak bi se uskovitlao nekoliko puta

before it even has a chance to go out through the filter.

prije nego bi uopće uspio proći kroz filtere.

So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.

Stoga sam pomislio: ovo je očito prilično ozbiljan problem.

I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane,

Nisam imao dovoljno novca da odem i kupim avion,

so I decided to build a computer instead.

tako da sam odlučio sastaviti kompjuter.

It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics,

Ispada da računalnom dinamikom fluida

what we're able to do is create these simulations

možemo pokretati simulacije koje rezultiraju

that give us higher resolutions

podacima veće preciznosti

than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane.

nego da fizički mjerimo iste podatke u avionu.

And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out

I to, u biti, funkcionira tako da započnete

with these 2D drawings --

s ovim 2D crtežima --

these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet.

ove crteže možete naći u tehničkim nacrtima svugdje po internetu.

I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software,

Uzmete ih, umetnete u softver za 3D modeliranje,

really building that 3D model.

koji konstruiraju taj 3D model.

And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces,

Zatim podijelite taj izgrađeni model u sitne komadiće,

essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it.

u biti pretvorite u mrežu koju računalo može bolje razumjeti.

And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin,

I onda pokažete računalu gdje zrak ulazi i izlazi iz kabine,

throw in a bunch of physics

ubacite tonu fizike

and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.

i praktički sjedite i čekate dok računalo ne završi sa simulacijom.

So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this:

Ono što zapravo dobijemo s konvencionalnom kabinom je sljedeće:

you'll notice the middle person sneezing,

primjećujete da osoba u sredini kiše,

and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces.

i PAF -- zrak ode ljudima u lice.

It's pretty disgusting.

Prilično je odvratno.

From the front, you'll notice those two passengers

Primjećujete ona dva putnika, s prednje strane

sitting next to the central passenger

koji sjede uz centralnog putnika,

not exactly having a great time.

da baš i ne uživaju.

And when we take a look at that from the side,

A kada pogledamo situaciju s boka,

you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.

primjećujete kako se patogeni raspoređuju uzduž kabine.

The first thing I thought was, "This is no good."

Prvo što sam pomislio je bilo, "Ovo nije dobro."

So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations

Tako da sam proveo više od 32 različite simulacije

and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here.

i na koncu došao do narednog zaključka.

This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director.

Ovo zovem -- patent u postupku -- Globalni Ulazni Usmjerivač.

With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission

S time smo u mogućnosti smanjiti prijenos patogena

by about 55 times,

za otprilike 55 puta,

and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.

i povisiti udisanje svježeg zraka za otprilike 190 posto.

So how this actually works

Ovo radi tako

is we would install this piece of composite material

što bismo montirali ovaj komad kompozitnog materijala

into these existing spots that are already in the plane.

u ova postojeća mjesta u avionu.

So it's very cost-effective to install

Instalacija je troškovno vrlo efikasna

and we can do this directly overnight.

i možemo ju sprovesti preko noći.

All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go.

Sve što trebamo učiniti je zašarafiti par šarafa i spremni smo.

And the results that we get are absolutely amazing.

Rezultati koje dobivamo su apsolutno zadivljujući.

Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns,

Umjesto onih problematičnih zračnih kovitlanja

we can create these walls of air

stvaramo ove zračne zidove

that come down in-between the passengers

koji se spuštaju između putnika

to create personalized breathing zones.

i stvaraju osobne zone za disanje.

So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again,

Možete primijetiti da putnik u sredini ponovno kiše,

but this time, we're able to effectively push that down

no ovaj put njegovo kihanje možemo efektivno gurati dolje

to the filters for elimination.

prema filterima za eliminaciju.

And same thing from the side,

Isto vrijedi i za bok,

you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down.

možete primijetiti da možemo direktno gurati patogene prema dolje.

So if you take a look again now at the same scenario

Tako da ako pogledate ponovno isti scenarij

but with this innovation installed,

no s ovim izumom instaliranim,

you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes,

primjećujete kako srednji putnik kiše,

and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet

no ovaj put guramo njegov kašalj direktno dolje u ispuh

before it gets a chance to infect any other people.

prije nego dobije priliku zaraziti ostale putnike.

So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy

Primijetite da dva putnika koja sjede uz našeg srednjeg putnika

are breathing virtually no pathogens at all.

praktički ne udišu nikakve patogene.

Take a look at that from the side as well,

Pogledajte također isto s boka,

you see a very efficient system.

i vidite vrlo efikasan sustav.

And in short, with this system, we win.

Ukratko, s ovim sustavom pobjeđujemo zarazu.

When we take a look at what this means,

Kada razmislimo što ovo znači,

what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes,

vidimo da to ne funckionira samo ako putnik u sredini kihne,

but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes

nego i ako putnik u sjedalu uz prozor kihne

or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.

ili ako putnik uz prolaz kihne.

And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world?

Što ovo rješenje znači za svijet?

Well, when we take a look at this

Pa, kada sagledamo sve

from the computer simulation into real life,

od računalne simulacije preko stvarnog života,

we can see with this 3D model that I built over here,

možemo vidjeti s ovim 3D modelom izrađenim ovdje,

essentially using 3D printing,

isprintanim 3D pisačem,

we can see those same airflow patterns coming down,

možemo vidjeti isto kolanje zraka prema dnu,

right to the passengers.

dolje prema putnicima.

In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world

U prošlosti, epidemija SARS-a je koštala svijet

about 40 billion dollars.

oko 40 milijardi dolara.

And in the future,

A u budućnosti,

a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world

veliko izbijanje bolesti bi moglo koštati čitav svijet

in excess of three trillion dollars.

više of tri trilijuna dolara.

So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service

U prošlosti smo morali povući avion iz službe

for one to two months,

jedan do dva mjeseca,

spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars

potrošiti desetke tisuća sati rada i nekoliko milijuna dolara da bismo

to try to change something.

pokušali učiniti nešto.

But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight

Međutim, sada možemo nešto instalirati praktički preko noći

and see results right away.

i odmah vidjeti rezultate.

So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification,

Tako da ovo trebamo sprovesti kroz certifikaciju,

flight testing,

i testiranja u letu,

and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes.

i kroz sve one regulatorne procese za odobrenje.

But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions

No ono što se da zaključiti je da su ponekad najbolja rješenja

are the simplest solutions.

ujedino i najjednostavnija.

And two years ago, even,

I prije dvije godine, na primjer,

this project would not have happened,

ovaj projekt se ne bi ni ostvario,

just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it.

čisto zbog nedostatka tehnologija.

But now with advanced computing

No trenutno, s naprednim računalnim simulacijama

and how developed our Internet is,

i razvojem Interneta,

it's really the golden era for innovation.

nalazimo se u zlatnoj eri inovacija.

And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait?

Stoga vas sve želim danas upitati: čemu čekanje?

Together, we can build the future today.

Zajedno možemo izgraditi budućnost danas.

Thanks.

Hvala

(Applause)

(Aplauz)