Asia's rise -- how and when | Hans Rosling

Prevodilac: Stevan Radanovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Once upon a time,

Jednom davno,

at the age of 24,

kada sam imao 24 godine,

I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

bio sam student medicinskog fakulteta "St. John" u Bangaloru.

I was a guest student during one month

Bio sam gostujući student tokom jednomesečnog seminara

of a public health course.

o javnom zdravstvu.

And that changed my mindset forever.

To iskustvo je zauvek promenilo način na koji posmatram svet.

The course was good, but it was not the course content

Seminar je bio dobar, ali nije njegov sadržaj sam po sebi

in itself that changed the mindset.

ono što je uticalo na moj način razmišljanja.

It was the brutal realization,

U pitanju je bila brutalna istina koju sam shvatio prvog jutra -

the first morning,

that the Indian students were better than me.

indijski studenti su bili bolji od mene.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

You see, I was a study nerd.

Vidite, ja sam bio zaluđenik za učenje.

I loved statistics from a young age.

Od malena sam obožavao statistiku.

And I studied very much in Sweden.

I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj.

I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

Na svim kursevima koje sam pohađao sam bio jedan od četvrtine najboljih,

But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

ali u St. John-u sam bio u četvrtini najlošijih studenata.

Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti

And the fact was that Indian students

studied harder than we did in Sweden.

marljivije učili od nas u Švedskoj.

They read the textbook twice,

Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta,

or three times or four times.

ili tri ili čak četiri puta.

In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

U Švedskoj bismo ga pročitali jedanput, a zatim otišli da se zabavljamo.

(Laugher)

(Smeh)

And that, to me,

I to je, meni,

that personal experience

to lično iskustvo,

was the first time in my life

bio prvi put u mom životu

that the mindset I grew up with

da je nešto promenilo način razmišljanja sa kojim sam odrastao.

was changed.

And I realized that perhaps

I shvatio sam da možda

the Western world will not continue

Zapadni svet neće zauvek dominirati svetom.

to dominate the world forever.

And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju sličnu vrstu ličnog iskustva.

It's that realization of someone you meet

To je ona spoznaja da je neko koga ste upoznali

that really made you change your ideas about the world.

uticao na vas da promenite svoje predstave o svetu.

It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

Nije u pitanju sama statistika,

iako pokušavam da je prikažem na zabavan način.

And I will now,

A sada ću,

here, onstage,

ovde, na sceni,

try to predict when that will happen --

pokušati da predvidim kada će se to dogoditi -

that Asia will regain

kada će Azija ponovo zauzeti

its dominant position

svoju nadmoćnu poziciju

as the leading part of the world,

kao vodeći deo sveta,

as it used to be, over thousands of years.

što i jeste bila hiljadama godina.

And I will do that

Uradiću to

by trying to predict precisely

pokušavajući da predvidim

tačno koje godine će prosečan dohodak po stanovniku

at what year

the average income per person

in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

u Indiji, Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu.

And I don't mean the whole economy,

Ne mislim na celu ekonomiju,

because to grow an economy

budući da rast indijske ekonomije

of India to the size of U.K. --

do nivoa one Velike Britanije

that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

nije nikakav problem kada imate milijardu stanovnika.

But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

Zapravo, želim da uočim kada će prosečna mesečna plata,

for each person, per month,

novčano primanje svake osobe,

in India and China,

u Indiji i Kini,

when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

kada će se izjednačiti sa onima u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?

But I will start with a historical background.

Ali počeću istorijskom pozadinom.

And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

Možete da vidite mapu kada je postavim gore, zar ne?

I will start at 1858.

Počeću od 1858.

1858 was a year of great technological

1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog napretka na Zapadu.

advancement in the West.

That was the year when Queen Victoria

To je godina u kojoj je kraljica Viktorija

was able, for the first time, to communicate

po prvi put bila u mogućnosti da komunicira

with President Buchanan,

sa predsednikom Bjukenanom

through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

putem transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla.

And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

Oni su koristili prvi transatlantski Tviter.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

Koristeći ovaj izvanredan Google i internet

to find the text of the telegram

pronašao sam tekst telegrama

sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

poslatog od predsednika Bjukenana kraljici Viktoriji.

And it ends like this: "This telegraph

Završava se sledećim rečima:

"Ovaj telegraf je fantastičan instrument za širenje religije,

is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

civilizacije, slobode i zakona širom sveta."

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

To su lepe reči.

Ali zainteresovalo me je šta je mislio pod "slobodom"

of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

i kome je bila namenjena ta sloboda.

And we will think about that

Razmislimo o tome

when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

dok posmatramo širu sliku sveta iz 1858. godine

Because 1858

budući da je 1858.

was also watershed year

takođe bila prekretnica u istoriji Azije.

in the history of Asia.

1858 was the year

1858. je bila godina

when the courageous uprising

u kojoj je smeli ustanak protiv strane okupacije u Indiji

against the foreign occupation of India

was defeated by the British forces.

ugušila britanska vojska.

And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

Nakon toga Indija je bila pod stranom vlašću još 89 godina.

1858 in China

1858. u Kini je godina

was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

pobede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu.

And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

To je značilo da stranci, kako je navedeno u sporazumu,

were allowed to trade freely in China.

mogu slobodno da trguju u Kini

It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

i da opijumom plaćaju kinesku robu.

And 1858 in Japan

Japan je 1858. godine

was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

primoran da potpiše Harisov sporazum

and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

i da prihvati trgovinu pod povoljnim uslovima za SAD.

And they were threatened by those black ships there,

Ugrožavali su ih ti crni brodovi

koji su bili usidreni u tokijskoj luci tokom prethodne godine.

that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

Za razliku od Indije i Kine,

maintained its national sovereignty.

Japan je zadržao svoj nacionalni suverenitet.

And let's see how much difference that can make.

Pogledajmo koliko to može značiti.

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

Uradiću to pokazujući balončiće

back to a Gapminder graph here,

ovde na "Gapminder" grafu.

where you can see each bubble is a country.

gde svaki balončić predstavlja jednu zemlju.

The size of the bubble here is the population.

Veličina balončića u ovom slučaju je brojnost populacije.

On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku izražen u uporedivim dolarima,

And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

a na ovoj osi je očekivano trajanje života, mera zdravlja populacije.

And I also bring an innovation here.

Takođe, uvodim inovaciju.

I have transformed the laser beam

U zelenoj Indiji sam pretvorio

into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

laserski zrak u ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And we will see, you know.

I sad ćemo videti.

Look here, 1858, India was here,

Pogledajte: 1858. Indija je ovde,

China was here, Japan was there,

Kina ovde, Japan tamo,

United States and United Kingdom

a SAD i Velika Britanija su kao bogatije bile tamo.

was richer over there.

And I will start the world like this.

Pokrenuću svet.

India was not always like this level.

Indija nije uvek bila na ovom nivou.

Actually if we go back into the historical record,

Zapravo, ako bismo pogledali u istorijske zapise

there was a time hundreds of years ago

postojalo je vreme pre nekoliko stotina godina

when the income per person in India and China

kada su prihodi po stanovniku u Indiji i Kini

was even above that of Europe.

bili viši čak i od onih u Evropi.

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

Ali do 1850. već mnogo, mnogo godina traje strana dominacija

and India had been de-industrialized.

i Indija je deindustrijalizovana.

And you can see that the countries who were growing

Možete uočiti da zemlje čija ekonomija raste

their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

jesu SAD i Velika Britanija.

And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

Do kraja veka one su, takođe, postajale zdravije,

and Japan was starting to catch up.

a Japan je počeo da ih sustiže.

India was trying down here.

Indija se trudila ovde dole.

Can you see how it starts to move there?

Primećujete li kako počinje da se kreće?

But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

Ali suverenitet je bio zaista, zaista dobar za Japan.

And Japan is trying to move up there.

I Japan pokušava da se pomeri ovde gore.

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

Počinje novi vek.

Zdravlje se poboljšava, Velika Britanija, SAD.

United Kingdom, United States.

But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

Oprezno sad - približava se Prvi svetski rat,

And the First World War, you know,

a Prvi svetski rat će, kao što znate,

we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

doneti mnogo smrti i ekonomskih problema.

United Kingdom is going down.

Velika Britanija pada.

A sada dolazi i španski grip.

And now comes the Spanish flu also.

And then after the First World War, they continue up.

Posle Prvog svetskog rata one nastavljaju uspon.

Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

Još uvek pod stranom dominacijom i bez suvereniteta,

India and China are down in the corner.

Indija i Kina su dole u ćošku.

Not much has happened.

Nije se puno toga dogodilo.

Povećala im se brojnost populacije, ali sve ostalo je skoro isto.

They have grown their population but not much more.

In the 1930's now, you can see

Sada smo u 1930-im i možete primetiti

that Japan is going to a period of war,

da Japan prolazi kroz period rata

with lower life expectancy.

po nižem očekivanom trajanju života.

And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

Drugi svetski rat je bio zaista strašan događaj,

also economically for Japan.

za Japan i ekonomski,

ali su se oporavili veoma brzo po završetku rata.

But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

And we are moving into the new world.

Stižemo u novi svet.

In 1947 India finally

Konačno 1947. Indija

gained its independence.

stiče nezavisnost.

And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

Podigli su indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija,

but in very big difficulties down there.

ali su u velikim problemima ovde dole.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

1949. smo prisustvovali javljanju moderne Kine

in a way which surprised the world.

na način koji je iznenadio svet.

And what happened?

Šta se dogodilo?

What happens in the after independence?

Šta se događa posle sticanja nezavisnosti?

You can see that the health started to improve.

Primetite da se zdravlje poboljšava.

Children started to go to school.

Deca počinju da idu u škole.

Health services were provided.

Zdravstvene usluge su pružane.

This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

A onda je Kina pala za vreme Velikog skoka napred.

It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

To je bila centralna planska ekonomija Mao Cedunga.

China recovered. Then they said,

Zatim se Kina oporavila, a onda su rekli:

"Nevermore, stupid central planning."

"Nikad više, planska ekonomija je glupa."

But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

Otišli su ovde gore, a Indija je pokušavala da ih prati

And they were catching up indeed.

i zaista su ih sustizali.

Obe zemlje su bile sve bolje sa zdravljem,

And both countries had the better health, but still

ali su im ekonomije bile loše.

a very low economy.

Stižemo do 1978, Mao Cedungove smrti

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

and a new guy turned up from the left.

i pojave novog levičara.

And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.

To je bio Deng Šaoping.

And he said, "Doesn't matter

Rekao je: "Nije bitno da li je mačka bela ili crna,

if a cat is white or black,

as long as it catches mice."

sve dok hvata miševe."

Because catching mice

Zato što je hvatanje miševa

is what the two cats wanted to do.

ono što su dve mačke želele da rade.

And you can see the two cats being here,

Primetite da dve mačke ovde,

Kina i Indija, žele da uhvate miševe tamo.

China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.

And they decided to go not only for health and education,

Odlučili su da ne unapređuju samo zdravstvo i obrazovanje,

but also starting to grow their economy.

već da počnu i sa ekonomijom.

And the market reformer was successful there.

Reforma tržišta se pokazala uspešnom ovde.

In '92 India follows with a market reform.

Indija sledi reformom tržišta 1992.

And they go quite closely together,

I zatim idu prilično blizu zajedno

i možete primetiti da su sličnosti Indije i Kine

and you can see that the similarity with India and China,

in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.

na mnogo načina veće od njihovih različitosti.

And here they march on. And will they catch up?

Ovde marširaju, ali da li će sustići?

This is the big question today.

To je veliko pitanje današnjice.

There they are today.

Ovde su danas.

Dakle, šta znači to što -

Now what does it mean that the --

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

the averages there -- this is the average of China.

prosečne vrednosti - ovo je prosek Kine.

If I would split China, look here,

Kada bih podelio Kinu, pogledajte ovde,

Shanghai has already catched up.

Šangaj je već sustigao.

Shanghai is already there.

Šangaj je već tamo.

And it's healthier than the United States.

I još je zdraviji od SAD-a.

But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest

Ali, sa druge strane, Guejdžou, jedna od siromašnijih,

inland provinces of China, is there.

kontinentalnih provincija Kine, je tamo.

And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,

A ako podelim Guejdžou na urbani i ruralni,

the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.

ruralni deo Guejdžoua je tamo dole.

You see this enormous inequity in China,

Primetite ove ogromne razlike unutar Kine,

in the midst of fast economic growth.

usred brzog ekonomskog rasta.

And if I would also look at India,

Kada pogledamo Indiju,

you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.

ona zapravo poseduje drugu vrstu nejednakosti.

The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.

Geografska, makrogeografska razlika nije toliko velika.

Utar Pradeš, najveća pokrajina ovde,

Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,

is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.

je siromašnija i lošijeg je zdravlja od ostatka Indije.

Kerala is flying on top there,

Kerala leti tamo na vrhu,

matching United States in health,

dostigavši SAD po zdravlju,

but not in economy.

ali ne i ekonomiji.

And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,

A ovde, Maharaštra, u kojoj je Mumbaj,

is forging forward.

grabi napred.

Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,

Dakle, u Indiji su velike nejednakosti unutar pokrajina,

rather than between the states.

a ne između njih.

And that is not a bad thing, in itself.

Samo po sebi to nije loša stvar.

If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities

Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti

can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,

mogu biti teže za rešavanje na dugi period

nego ako je nejednakost unutar oblasti,

than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center

gde je centar rasta

relatively close to where poor people are living.

relativno blizu mesta gde žive siromašni ljudi.

No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.

No, postoji još jedna nejednakost. Pogledaje tamo, SAD.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Oh, they broke my frame.

Oh, probili su mi okvir stranice.

Washington, D.C. went out here.

Grad Vašington je ovde.

(Smeh)

My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this

Moji prijatelji u "Gapminder"-u su me zamolili da pokažem ovo

because there is a new leader in Washington

zato što se u Vašingtonu nalazi novi lider

who is really concerned about the health system.

koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstveni sistem.

And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.

Ja ga razumem, budući da je Vašington toliko bogat,

is so rich over there

but they are not as healthy as Kerala.

ali manje zdrav od Kerale.

It's quite interesting, isn't it?

To je veoma interesantno, zar ne?

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,

Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu,

helping fix the health system in the United States.

pomaganje SAD-u oko popravki zdravstvenog sistema.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.

Ovde imamo celi svet.

U donjem uglu je mapa.

And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,

Kada posmatrate dve velike mačke ovde kako guraju napred,

you see that in between them

možete primetiti da se između njih

and ahead of them,

i ispred njih nalazi cela skupina uzdižućih ekonomija sveta,

is the whole emerging economies of the world,

which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."

što je Tomas Fridman veoma ispravno nazvao "ravnim svetom".

You can see that in health and education,

Uočite da veliki deo svetske populacije

a large part of the world population is putting forward,

gura napred što se tiče zdravlja i obrazovanja,

but in Africa, and other parts,

ali da u Africi i nekim drugim mestima,

as in rural Guizhou in China,

kao što je ruralni Guejdžou u Kini,

there is still people with low health and very low economy.

ljudi i dalje žive u lošim zdravstvenim i ekonomskim uslovima.

We have an enormous disparity in the world.

Postoje ogromne nejednakosti u svetu.

But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.

Ali veći deo sveta koji se nalazi u sredini veoma žuri napred.

Now, back to my projections.

Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima.

When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.

Kada će sustići?

Moramo se vratiti konvencionalnom grafu.

I will show income per person on this axis instead,

Na ovoj osi je dohodak po stanovniku,

poor down here, rich up there.

siromašni su dole, bogati gore.

And then time here, from 1858

A ovde je vremenska osa, od 1858.

I start the world.

Pokrećem svet.

And we shall see what will happen with these countries.

Videćemo šta će se dešavati sa ovim zemljama.

You see, China under foreign domination

Vidite, u Kini pod stranom vlašću

actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.

dohodak je zapravo pao na nivo Indije ovde.

Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.

Za to vreme Velika Britanija i SAD postaju sve bogatije.

And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.

Posle Drugog svetskog rata, SAD su bogatije od Britanije.

But independence is coming here.

Nazavisnost dolazi.

Growth is starting, economic reform.

Počinje rast, ekonomska reforma.

Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF

Rast ubrzava i pomoću projekcija MMF-a

you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

možete videti kakvo stanje se očekuje 2014.

Pitanje je kada će se dogoditi sustizanje?

Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"

Look at, look at the United States.

Pogledajte SAD.

Can you see the bubble?

Vidite li mehur?

The bubbles, not my bubbles,

Mehurove, ne moje balončiće,

but the financial bubbles.

već finansijske mehurove.

That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.

Ovo je "dot com" mehur.

Ovo je "stepenik" za koji su zašlužni "Lehman Brothers".

You see it came down there.

Vidite kako je dohodak odjednom pao.

And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.

Izgleda da je i ovde i "Northern Rock".

So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.

Dakle, izgleda da ove zemlje ne idu ovim putem.

Izgleda da imaju mnogo umereniji rast, znate.

They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.

And people interested in growth

Ljudi koje interesuje rast

are turning their eyes towards Asia.

počinju da gledaju ka Aziji.

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.

Uporedimo sa Japanom. Ovo je uzdizanje Japana.

Vidite, Japan je to uradio na ovaj način.

You see, Japan did it like that.

We add Japan to it.

Dodajmo Japan.

And there is no doubt that fast catch up

Nema sumnje da se brzo sustizanje može desiti.

can take place.

Vidite li šta je Japan uradio?

Can you see here what Japan did?

Japan did it like this, until full catch up,

Japan je to činio ovako dok nisu sustigli,

and then they follow with the other high-income economies.

a zatim prate ostale bogate ekonomije.

But the real projections for those ones,

Ali prave projekcije za ovu grupu zemalja

I would like to give it like this.

bih hteo da dam na ovaj način.

Can be worse, can be better.

Može lošije, može bolje.

It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.

Uvek je teško predviđati, pogotovo kad je u pitanju budućnost.

Jedan istoričar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.

Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I think I'm in a difficult position here.

Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovde.

Inequalities in China and India

Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji

I consider really the big obstacle

smatram zaista velikom preprekom,

because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity

budući da je "uvlačenje" kompletnog stanovništva u rast i prosperitet

is what will create a domestic market,

ono što će stvoriti domaće tržište,

what will avoid social instability,

omogućiti društvenu stabilnost

and which will make use of the entire capacity

i iskoristiti pun kapacitet stanovništva.

of the population.

So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,

Dakle, društvena ulaganja u zdravstvo, obrazovanje i infrastrukturu,

and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

i elektrifikaciju su ono što je zaista neophodno Indiji i Kini.

You know the climate. We have great international experts

Upoznati ste sa klimom.

Internacionalni eksperti iz Indije poručuju da se klima menja

within India telling us that the climate is changing,

and actions has to be taken,

i da moramo delati,

otherwise China and India would be the countries

inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje

most to suffer from climate change.

koje će najviše pogoditi klimatske promene.

And I consider India and China the best partners in the world

Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svetu

in a good global climate policy.

po pitanju dobre globalne klimatske politike.

But they ain't going to pay

Ali oni neće plaćati

for what others, who have more money,

ono što su drugi, koji imaju više novca,

have largely created, and I can agree on that.

uglavnom stvorili i ja se mogu složiti sa time.

But what I'm really worried about is war.

Ali ono što me istinski brine je rat.

Will the former rich countries really accept

Da li će bivše bogate zemlje zaista prihvatiti

a completely changed world economy,

da se svetska ekonomija potpuno promeni

and a shift of power away from where it has been

i da se moć premesti sa mesta na kojima je bila

the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,

prethodnih 50, 100, pa i 150 godina,

back to Asia?

nazad u Aziju?

And will Asia be able to handle that

I da li će Azija biti u stanju da se nosi

new position of being in charge

sa novom vodećom pozicijom,

of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?

pozicijom najmoćnijeg i svetskog vladara?

So, always avoid war,

Uvek treba izbeći rat,

because that always pushes human beings backward.

rat gurne ljude unazad.

Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,

Dakle, ako rešimo probleme nejednakosti, klime i ratovanje,

get ready for a world in equity,

spremite se za svet jednakosti.

because this is what seems to be happening.

Po svemu sudeći to se dešava.

And that vision that I got as a young student,

I ta vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student 1972. godine,

1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,

kako Indijci mogu biti daleko bolji od Šveđana,

is just about to happen.

će se uskoro desiti.

And it will happen precisely

A desiće se tačno

the year 2048

2048. godine

in the later part of the summer, in July,

u kasnijem delu leta, u julu,

more precisely, the 27th of July.

tačnije 27. jula.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

The 27th of July, 2048

27. jul 2048.

is my 100th birthday.

je moj 100. rođendan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I expect to speak

I očekujem da ću govoriti

in the first session of the 39th TED India.

u prvoj sesiji na 39. konferenciji TED India.

Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.

Rezervišite karte na vreme.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)