Asia's rise -- how and when | Hans Rosling

翻译人员: Chaoran Yu 校对人员: zhangb bin

Once upon a time,

很久以前，

at the age of 24,

当我还是24岁之时，

I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

我尚是一名位于班加罗尔的圣约翰医学院的学生。

I was a guest student during one month

当时，我是一名为期一个月的

of a public health course.

公共卫生课程的旁听生。

And that changed my mindset forever.

我的思维模式从那时起开始改变。

The course was good, but it was not the course content

这是一门好课程，但改变我思维模式的

in itself that changed the mindset.

不是这门课程本身。

It was the brutal realization,

而是因在第一天早晨，

the first morning,

我发现印度学生的表现

that the Indian students were better than me.

居然比我还要优秀，这个残酷的现实。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You see, I was a study nerd.

如你所见，我是一个书呆子。

I loved statistics from a young age.

当我年轻时，我对数据有狂热的喜好。

And I studied very much in Sweden.

而且我在瑞典学习时很用功。

I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

我曾在所有课程中都名列前茅。

But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

但在圣约翰时，我却名落孙山了。

And the fact was that Indian students

我不得不承认，印度学生

studied harder than we did in Sweden.

比瑞典学生要刻苦努力多了。

They read the textbook twice,

他们会三番四次地

or three times or four times.

阅读他们的课本。

In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

而在瑞典，读完一次后，我们就去夜夜笙歌了。

(Laugher)

（笑声）

And that, to me,

这对于我的

that personal experience

意义是在于

was the first time in my life

我生而知之的思维方式

that the mindset I grew up with

第一次

was changed.

被改变了。

And I realized that perhaps

我意识到

the Western world will not continue

西方世界或许

to dominate the world forever.

不再是霸权国家了。

And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

我想你们都大概有这种体验。

It's that realization of someone you meet

那种遇到某个人使你的世界观

that really made you change your ideas about the world.

发生天翻地覆地改变的经历。

It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

这些都不是数据，虽然我试着让它听起来有趣。

And I will now,

现在，

here, onstage,

我，将在这个台上，

try to predict when that will happen --

来预测亚洲

that Asia will regain

什么时候会

its dominant position

重夺其导向世界的

as the leading part of the world,

主导地位，

as it used to be, over thousands of years.

正如过去数千年一般。

And I will do that

而且我会尽可能地

by trying to predict precisely

得到一个精准的预测

at what year

来说明

the average income per person

印度和中国的人均收入

in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

何时会达到西方的水平。

And I don't mean the whole economy,

我不是指整体的经济实力，

because to grow an economy

对于印度来说

of India to the size of U.K. --

赶超英国的整体经济实力

that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

是小菜一碟，因为他们拥有十亿人口。

But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

但是我所想见得是

for each person, per month,

印度和中国的

in India and China,

人均收入

when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

什么时候会追上英国和美国的水平？

But I will start with a historical background.

首先，我会介绍一下历史背景。

And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

请问你们可以看到我的数据图么？可以吗？

I will start at 1858.

我会从1858年开始。

1858 was a year of great technological

1858年是西方科技水平

advancement in the West.

大跃进的一年。

That was the year when Queen Victoria

在这一年，维多利亚皇后

was able, for the first time, to communicate

可以和布坎南总统

with President Buchanan,

通过跨大西洋电报电缆

through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

来交流，这是有史以来的第一次。

And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

他们，是第一对跨大西洋的推客。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

而我，通过神奇的谷歌和网络

to find the text of the telegram

找到了布坎南总统

sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

回发给维多利亚皇后的电报。

And it ends like this: "This telegraph

它的结尾时这样的：“这个电报

is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

将是一种可向世界传播宗教、

civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

文明、自由和法律的神奇工具。”

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

这句话很动听。可是，我很好奇

of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

他说的是何种自由，以及是何人的自由。

And we will think about that

这势必让我们回想起

when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

在1858年时，世界各地都发生了什么。

Because 1858

因为1858年

was also watershed year

同时也是亚洲历史的

in the history of Asia.

分水岭。

1858 was the year

1858年，

when the courageous uprising

印度所爆发的

against the foreign occupation of India

民族大起义

was defeated by the British forces.

被英军镇压了。

And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

印度因此继续忍受了89年的外人统治。

1858 in China

中国在1858年

was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

再一次在鸦片战争中输给了英国。

And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

因此在签订的（不平等）条约中

were allowed to trade freely in China.

说明外国人在中国可自由通商。

It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

这意味着用鸦片换取中国商品。

And 1858 in Japan

日本在1858年，

was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

被迫签订安政条约

and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

以及承认美日贸易优先权。

And they were threatened by those black ships there,

因为他们在这几年

that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

被东京港里的黑船威胁。

But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

但日本仍拥有国家主权，

maintained its national sovereignty.

不像印度和中国那样。

And let's see how much difference that can make.

让我们来看看这将带来多大的差异。

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

我将带着这些泡泡

back to a Gapminder graph here,

回到Gapminder软件上，

where you can see each bubble is a country.

在这里，每个泡泡都代表着一个国家。

The size of the bubble here is the population.

人口是由泡泡的大小所代表。

On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

一般横轴都代表人均收入。

And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

竖轴则代表人均寿命。

And I also bring an innovation here.

今天，我又一次带来了一件发明。

I have transformed the laser beam

为了绿色印度，我将激光束转换成

into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

一根生态友好型木棒。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And we will see, you know.

正如你们所料一样。

Look here, 1858, India was here,

1858年，印度和中国是在这里，

China was here, Japan was there,

日本则在那里。

United States and United Kingdom

美国和英国

was richer over there.

则更是在那边。

And I will start the world like this.

世界将从这样开始。

India was not always like this level.

印度以前不是这样的。

Actually if we go back into the historical record,

让我们回想百年以前的

there was a time hundreds of years ago

印度和中国，

when the income per person in India and China

那时，两国的人均收入

was even above that of Europe.

是比欧洲的水平还高。

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

然而，在1850年时，两国已饱受多年的外国侵略，

and India had been de-industrialized.

何况印度的工业能力还被削弱。

And you can see that the countries who were growing

而经济正在发展的国家

their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

则是英美两国。

And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

在十九世纪末时，他们的国民身体素质也得以改善，

and Japan was starting to catch up.

至于日本则开始奋起直追。

India was trying down here.

偏偏印度还深陷泥沼。

Can you see how it starts to move there?

你们可以看见他的确是在动吗？

But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

国家主权完整使日本受益匪浅。

And Japan is trying to move up there.

日本一直在尝试赶上去。

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

新世界到了。英美两国的国民

United Kingdom, United States.

身体素质更加强化了。

But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

但要小心，一战的脚步已经近了。

And the First World War, you know,

正如你所料，在一战期间

we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

会爆发很多经济问题和导致死亡。

United Kingdom is going down.

英国在走下坡路。

And now comes the Spanish flu also.

西班牙流感又接踵而来。

And then after the First World War, they continue up.

一战后，他们继续向上攀升。

Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

印中两国由于仍被外来政权统治着，

India and China are down in the corner.

因此他们还在下面的角落里。

Not much has happened.

无甚变化。

They have grown their population but not much more.

只是人口有所增加罢了。

In the 1930's now, you can see

现在到了三十年代，

that Japan is going to a period of war,

日本正处于战争时期，

with lower life expectancy.

国民寿命普遍低下。

And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

二战对日本来说，尤其在经济上，

also economically for Japan.

是一场噩梦。

But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

但战后他们恢复的相对迅速。

And we are moving into the new world.

我们正迈向新世界。

In 1947 India finally

印度终于于1947年

gained its independence.

成独立国家。

And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

他们可以升起他们自己的国旗并且成为一主权国家，

but in very big difficulties down there.

却仍举步维艰。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

在1949年，新中国的诞生

in a way which surprised the world.

使全世界都为之惊奇。

And what happened?

之后发生了什么？

What happens in the after independence?

在独立之后发生了什么？

You can see that the health started to improve.

正如你所见，国民的健康有所进步。

Children started to go to school.

儿童们有学上。

Health services were provided.

医疗设施也逐渐出现。

This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

现正是大跃进时期，中国摔了一大跤。

It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

这是由毛泽东统一计划的。

China recovered. Then they said,

中国恢复元气后，

"Nevermore, stupid central planning."

他们则说：“前事不忘，后事之师。”

But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

中国又日趋上升，印度则是吊车尾。

And they were catching up indeed.

他们都正迎头赶上。

And both countries had the better health, but still

两国的国民健康大大改善，

a very low economy.

然后经济水平仍有待提高。

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

现在来到1978年，毛泽东已去世，

and a new guy turned up from the left.

新一代领导出现。

And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.

而邓小平正冉冉上升。

And he said, "Doesn't matter

他说：“不管

if a cat is white or black,

黑猫白猫，抓到老鼠

as long as it catches mice."

就是好猫。”

Because catching mice

因为这正是

is what the two cats wanted to do.

这两只大猫想做的。

And you can see the two cats being here,

正如你们所知，中印两只大猫

China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.

是想要抓住那边的老鼠。

And they decided to go not only for health and education,

因此他们决定不仅要发展教育和公共卫生，

but also starting to grow their economy.

也要开始发展经济。

And the market reformer was successful there.

改革开放是成功的。

In '92 India follows with a market reform.

在1992年印度也开始了经济改革。

And they go quite closely together,

他们走的很近，

and you can see that the similarity with India and China,

而且两国颇多相似之处，

in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.

而且差异不多。

And here they march on. And will they catch up?

他们齐头并进。可是能迎头赶上么？

This is the big question today.

这是现今世界的一个大问题。

There they are today.

今天，他们处在哪里。

Now what does it mean that the --

这说明了——

(Applause)

(掌声)

the averages there -- this is the average of China.

他们的平均水平，这是中国的平均水平。

If I would split China, look here,

假如将中国分开来看，

Shanghai has already catched up.

看，上海已经赶上了。

Shanghai is already there.

上海已经在上面哪里。

And it's healthier than the United States.

而且市民的平均寿命比美国还长。

But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest

然而，贵州，中国最穷的

inland provinces of China, is there.

一个内陆省，在那里。

And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,

假如我将贵州分成城市和乡下两部分，

the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.

贵州乡下仍继续下滑。

You see this enormous inequity in China,

在中国的迅速经济发展下，

in the midst of fast economic growth.

隐藏着极大的问题。

And if I would also look at India,

我们再来看看印度，

you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.

我们会看到另一种不平等。

The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.

从地理的角度上来看，差距不大。

Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,

北方邦，是印度的最大邦，

is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.

比起其他邦来说是较为贫穷落后的。

Kerala is flying on top there,

克拉拉邦则处于领先地位，

matching United States in health,

而且就公共卫生一项来说已赶上了美国，

but not in economy.

偏偏不包括经济。

And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,

这里，孟买的所在邦，马哈拉斯特拉邦，

is forging forward.

正向前迈进。

Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,

在印度，不平等是体现在邦内，

rather than between the states.

而非邦与邦之间。

And that is not a bad thing, in itself.

这并不是一件坏事。

If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities

假如在宏观地理上有太大差距，

can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,

这将会成为一长期隐患，

than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center

但在每个区域都有一经济发展中心，

relatively close to where poor people are living.

并且离穷人居住区近的话，这将会更好。

No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.

看，这还有一不平等的问题。看这里，美国。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

Oh, they broke my frame.

他已将我的框框撑破。

Washington, D.C. went out here.

华盛顿特区已跑到那里。

My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this

我在Gapminder的朋友想我将这展现给你们

because there is a new leader in Washington

因为现在白宫有了新主人

who is really concerned about the health system.

而且很关心公共卫生体系。

And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.

况且我也明白他的心情，因为华盛顿特区

is so rich over there

居民收入已非常之高

but they are not as healthy as Kerala.

但却比克拉拉邦的居民还短命。

It's quite interesting, isn't it?

很有趣是吧。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)

I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,

我帮克拉拉邦找到一生意，

helping fix the health system in the United States.

就是去帮美国建设他们的公共卫生体系。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

(Applause)

(鼓掌)

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.

现在来看看全球。图例则在这里。

And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,

你们看到这两只巨猫在跋涉向前，

you see that in between them

在他们之间

and ahead of them,

或在他们前面，

is the whole emerging economies of the world,

正是现时的全球经济，

which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."

这就是托马斯·弗里德曼所说的“世界是平的”。

You can see that in health and education,

你可以看见，很大一部分的

a large part of the world population is putting forward,

世界人口中的卫生和教育体系正在进步，

but in Africa, and other parts,

只是在非洲，或者其他地方，

as in rural Guizhou in China,

如中国的贵州乡下，

there is still people with low health and very low economy.

仍然有许多人处在困境之中。

We have an enormous disparity in the world.

现今世界贫富差距悬殊。

But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.

但大多中间阶层国家都进步的很快。

Now, back to my projections.

好，回到我的预测。

When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.

但两国何时能迎头赶上？我们必须使用传统图表。

I will show income per person on this axis instead,

竖轴代表着人均收入，

poor down here, rich up there.

穷富递进相增。

And then time here, from 1858

回溯到1858年

I start the world.

世界由此开始。

And we shall see what will happen with these countries.

让我们来观察下世界将会如何改变。

You see, China under foreign domination

中国正处于半殖民半封建时期

actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.

而他们国民收入已降低至印度的水准。

Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.

同一时间，英美则越来越富有。

And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.

二战后，英国被美国赶超。

But independence is coming here.

与此同时，独立的曙光则洒在中印两国头上。

Growth is starting, economic reform.

经济经过改革后开始增长。

Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF

增长速率加快，并且加上国际货币组织的预测

you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

这正是两国于2014年会到达的水平。

Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"

现时的问题则是：“他们何时会赶上？”

Look at, look at the United States.

再来回看下美国。

Can you see the bubble?

看的见那些泡泡？

The bubbles, not my bubbles,

不是我的泡沫，

but the financial bubbles.

而是经济泡沫。

That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.

看，雷曼兄弟的门槛在这。

You see it came down there.

看这里的下滑趋势。

And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.

英国也因受影响而下滑。

So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.

这些国家走的并不是阳光大道。

They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.

反而是崎岖不平的。

And people interested in growth

是故关注经济增长的人们

are turning their eyes towards Asia.

则转移视线至亚洲。

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.

我们将日本也加进来。日本是日趋上升。

You see, Japan did it like that.

日本是这样发展的。

We add Japan to it.

日本也加入美英的行列。

And there is no doubt that fast catch up

毫无疑问，他们追的很快

can take place.

且赶上了。

Can you see here what Japan did?

看看日本怎么做的。

Japan did it like this, until full catch up,

直到完全赶上，日本是这样发展的，

and then they follow with the other high-income economies.

接下来就紧随着高收入国家的脚步。

But the real projections for those ones,

不过我做出的预测

I would like to give it like this.

则是这样的。

Can be worse, can be better.

是福祸相依的。

It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.

未来是难以预测的。

Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.

偏偏有一位历史学家告诉我过去更难预测。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I think I'm in a difficult position here.

我在左右为难中。

Inequalities in China and India

中印两国的最大障碍

I consider really the big obstacle

就是不平等，

because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity

要使百业具兴

is what will create a domestic market,

则定要创建一国内市场

what will avoid social instability,

来避免社会的不稳定

and which will make use of the entire capacity

并能使广大的群众

of the population.

都投身其中。

So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,

所以中印两国绝需建设

and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

完备的医疗，教育，电力等基础设施。

You know the climate. We have great international experts

气候是一全球问题。有一位印度的专家

within India telling us that the climate is changing,

指出全球气候正在变化

and actions has to be taken,

我们必须采取行动，

otherwise China and India would be the countries

否则，中印两国

most to suffer from climate change.

则会首当其冲。

And I consider India and China the best partners in the world

我想中国和印度应是在

in a good global climate policy.

气候问题上的最佳伙伴。

But they ain't going to pay

但他们不应

for what others, who have more money,

为那些造成这些恶果的国家

have largely created, and I can agree on that.

背黑锅，而我认为也应这样做。

But what I'm really worried about is war.

但我最担心战争爆发。

Will the former rich countries really accept

那些现今的大国

a completely changed world economy,

能接受世界经济体系的改变

and a shift of power away from where it has been

和承认已有50至100年，甚至是霸主地位的移交么

the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,

甚至是150年的

back to Asia?

的霸主地位的移交么？

And will Asia be able to handle that

抑或亚洲能够

new position of being in charge

承受住作为世界霸主的

of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?

压力和重担吗？

So, always avoid war,

因此一定要避免战争，

because that always pushes human beings backward.

因为战争是人类倒退的罪魁祸首。

Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,

若是这些问题都能被解决，

get ready for a world in equity,

那么就准备迎来一平等的世界吧。

because this is what seems to be happening.

因为这正是历史的潮流。

And that vision that I got as a young student,

这是我尚是一名学生时，

1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,

于1972年，得知印度人比瑞典人要好的多时，

is just about to happen.

所知道的未来。

And it will happen precisely

更准确些，这

the year 2048

将会在2048年发生，

in the later part of the summer, in July,

会在季夏，7月份发生，

more precisely, the 27th of July.

更精准些，是7月27日。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)

The 27th of July, 2048

2048年7月27日

is my 100th birthday.

是我的期颐之时。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

And I expect to speak

而我则希望能在第一节

in the first session of the 39th TED India.

第39届TED印度大会上演讲。

Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.

请及时预定座位！谢谢。

(Applause)

(鼓掌)