Asia's rise -- how and when | Hans Rosling

Translator: Louise Frilund Reviewer: Thorbjørn Andersen

Once upon a time,

Dengang,

at the age of 24,

da jeg var 24 år,

I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

studerede jeg på St. John's Medical College i Bangalore.

I was a guest student during one month

Jeg var gæstestuderende på et månedslangt

of a public health course.

undervisningsforløb i offentlig sundhed.

And that changed my mindset forever.

Det forandrede mit syn på tingene for altid.

The course was good, but it was not the course content

Forløbet var godt, men det var ikke indholdet i sig selv,

in itself that changed the mindset.

der ændrede mit syn på tingene.

It was the brutal realization,

Det var den brutale erkendelse

the first morning,

den første morgen,

that the Indian students were better than me.

at de indiske studerende var bedre end mig.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

You see, I was a study nerd.

Ser I, jeg var en studie-nørd.

I loved statistics from a young age.

Jeg har elsket statistik fra barnsben.

And I studied very much in Sweden.

Og jeg studerede rigtig meget i Sverige.

I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

Jeg plejede at være i den bedste fjerdedel i alle de fag jeg tog.

But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

Men på St. John's var jeg i den dårligste fjerdedel.

And the fact was that Indian students

Og virkeligheden var at de indiske studerende

studied harder than we did in Sweden.

studerede hårdere end vi gjorde i Sverige.

They read the textbook twice,

De læste tekstbogen to gange,

or three times or four times.

eller tre eller fire gange.

In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

I Sverige læste vi bogen én gang, og tog så til fest.

(Laugher)

(Latter)

And that, to me,

Og for mig,

that personal experience

dén personlige oplevelse,

was the first time in my life

var første gang i mit liv,

that the mindset I grew up with

at mit syn på verden, som jeg kendte det,

was changed.

blev ændret for altid.

And I realized that perhaps

Og jeg indså, at måske

the Western world will not continue

ville den vestlige verden ikke fortsætte

to dominate the world forever.

med at dominere verden i al evighed.

And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

Og jeg tror mange af jer har haft en lignende personlig oplevelse.

It's that realization of someone you meet

Det er det her møde med nogen,

that really made you change your ideas about the world.

der virkelig får en til at ændre sine idéer om verden.

It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

Det er ikke statistikken, selvom jeg prøvede at gøre det sjovt.

And I will now,

Og jeg vil nu,

here, onstage,

her på scenen,

try to predict when that will happen --

prøve at forudsige hvornår det vil ske --

that Asia will regain

hvornår Asien vil genvinde

its dominant position

sin dominerende position

as the leading part of the world,

som den ledende del af verden,

as it used to be, over thousands of years.

som den har været tidligere, i tusindvis af år.

And I will do that

Og jeg vil gøre det

by trying to predict precisely

ved at forsøge at forudsige præcist

at what year

hvilket år

the average income per person

den gennemsnitlige indkomst pr. person

in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

i Indien og Kina, vil nå vestens niveau.

And I don't mean the whole economy,

Og jeg mener ikke den samlede økonomien,

because to grow an economy

fordi at skabe en økonomi

of India to the size of U.K. --

i Indien, som er på størrelse med Storbritanniens,

that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

det er let nok, med en milliard mennesker.

But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

Derimod vil jeg se, hvornår den gennemsnitlige løn, pengene

for each person, per month,

for hver person, hver måned,

in India and China,

i Indien og Kina,

when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

hvornår vil det have nået et niveau svarende til Storbritannien og USA?

But I will start with a historical background.

Jeg starter med lidt historisk baggrund.

And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

I kan se mit kort hvis jeg kan få det op her.

I will start at 1858.

Jeg starter i 1858.

1858 was a year of great technological

1858 var et år med stor teknologisk

advancement in the West.

fremgang i vesten.

That was the year when Queen Victoria

Det år var dronning Victoria

was able, for the first time, to communicate

for første gang i stand til at kommunikere

with President Buchanan,

med præsident Buchanan,

through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

via det transatlantiske telegrafkabel.

And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

De var de første, der "twittede" over Atlanten.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

Jeg har været i stand til, ved hjælp af det vidunderlige Google og internet,

to find the text of the telegram

at finde teksten fra det telegram,

sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

som præsident Buchanan sendte tilbage til dronning Victoria.

And it ends like this: "This telegraph

Det slutter således: "Denne telegraf

is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

er et fantastisk instrument til at udsprede religion,

civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

civilisation, frihed og lov udover hele verden."

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

Fine ord. Men jeg blev nysgerrig efter at vide

of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

hvad han mente med frihed, og frihed for hvem.

And we will think about that

Det vil vi tænke på,

when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

når vi ser på helhedsindtrykket af verden i 1858.

Because 1858

Fordi 1858

was also watershed year

var også et vendepunkt

in the history of Asia.

i Asiens historie.

1858 was the year

1858 var året,

when the courageous uprising

hvor det modige oprør

against the foreign occupation of India

mod den fremmede besættelse af Indien

was defeated by the British forces.

blev slået ned af britiske styrker.

And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

Indien havde herefter yderligere 89 år med udenlandsk dominering.

1858 in China

I Kina i 1858

was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

sejrede de britiske styrker i opiumskrigene.

And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

Det betød at udlændinge, som der stod i traktaten,

were allowed to trade freely in China.

måtte handle frit i Kina.

It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

Det betød betaling med opium for kinesiske varer.

And 1858 in Japan

1858 i Japan,

was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

var året hvor Japan underskrev Harristraktaten

and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

og accepterede handel på gunstige betingelser for USA

And they were threatened by those black ships there,

De blev truet af de sorte skibe der,

that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

der havde ligget i Tokyos havn over det forgangne år.

But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

Men i modsætning til Indien og Kina, så beholdt Japan

maintained its national sovereignty.

sin nationale suverænitet.

And let's see how much difference that can make.

Lad os se hvor stor en forskel det kan gøre.

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

Jeg vil gøre det ved at bringe de her bobler

back to a Gapminder graph here,

tilbage på en Gapminder graf her,

where you can see each bubble is a country.

hvor I kan se hver boble er et land.

The size of the bubble here is the population.

Størrelsen på boblen svarer til indbyggertallet.

On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

På denne akse, som jeg plejer at have, indkomst pr. person i dollar.

And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

Og på den her akse har jeg forventet levealder, folkets sundhed.

And I also bring an innovation here.

Jeg medbringer også en nyskabelse her.

I have transformed the laser beam

Jeg har forvandlet laserstrålen

into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

til en økologisk, bæredygtig version her, i det grønne Indien.

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

And we will see, you know.

Så er vi klar.

Look here, 1858, India was here,

Se her, i 1858 var Indien her,

China was here, Japan was there,

Kina var her, Japan var der,

United States and United Kingdom

USA og Storbritannien

was richer over there.

var rigere derovre.

And I will start the world like this.

Og jeg vil starte verden således.

India was not always like this level.

Indien var ikke altid på dette niveau.

Actually if we go back into the historical record,

Hvis vi går tilbage i historien,

there was a time hundreds of years ago

var der et tidspunkt for flere hundrede år siden,

when the income per person in India and China

hvor indkomsten per person i Indien og Kina

was even above that of Europe.

endda var højere end i Europa.

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

Men i 1850 havde der allerede været mange år med udenlandsk dominans,

and India had been de-industrialized.

og Indien var blevet afindustrialiseret.

And you can see that the countries who were growing

I kan se at de lande, der voksede

their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

økonomisk, var USA og Storbritannien.

And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

I slutningen af århundredet blev de også sundere,

and Japan was starting to catch up.

og Japan begyndte at hale ind på dem.

India was trying down here.

Indien prøvede hernede.

Can you see how it starts to move there?

Kan I se, hvordan det begynder at bevæge sig der?

But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

Men virkeligt! Naturlig suverænitet var godt for Japan.

And Japan is trying to move up there.

Japan prøver at komme opad.

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

Nu er det et nyt århundrede. Sundheden bliver bedre,

United Kingdom, United States.

både i Storbritannien og USA.

But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

Vær opmærksomme nu -- vi nærmer os Første Verdenskrig.

And the First World War, you know,

Og Første Verdenskrig, som I ved,

we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

medfører mange dødsfald og økonomiske problemer her.

United Kingdom is going down.

Storbritannien går ned.

And now comes the Spanish flu also.

Og nu kommer Den Spanske Syge også.

And then after the First World War, they continue up.

Og efter Første Verdenskrig fortsætter de opad.

Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

Stadig under udenlandsk dominans, og uden suverænitet,

India and China are down in the corner.

er Indien og Kina nede i hjørnet.

Not much has happened.

Der er ikke sket meget.

They have grown their population but not much more.

Indbyggertallet er steget, men ellers ikke noget.

In the 1930's now, you can see

Nu i 1930'erne, og I kan se

that Japan is going to a period of war,

at Japan går ind i en krigsperiode,

with lower life expectancy.

med kortere forventet levealder.

And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

Anden Verdenskrig var en skrækkelig begivenhed,

also economically for Japan.

også økonomisk for Japan.

But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

Men de kom ret hurtigt ovenpå igen.

And we are moving into the new world.

Og vi er på vej ind i den nye verden.

In 1947 India finally

I 1947 får Indien omsider

gained its independence.

sin uafhængighed.

And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

Og de kunne hejse det indiske flag og blive en selvstændig nation,

but in very big difficulties down there.

men med store problemer dernede.

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

I 1949 så vi fremkomsten af det moderne Kina,

in a way which surprised the world.

på en måde der overraskede verden.

And what happened?

Og hvad skete der?

What happens in the after independence?

Hvad sker der efter uafhængigheden?

You can see that the health started to improve.

I kan se at sundheden begyndte at blive bedre.

Children started to go to school.

Børn kom i skole.

Health services were provided.

Sundhedsydelser blev tilgængelige.

This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

Her er Det Store Spring Fremad, da Kina faldt ned.

It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

Det var centralplanlægningen af Mao Zedong.

China recovered. Then they said,

Kina rejste sig igen. Så sagde de,

"Nevermore, stupid central planning."

"aldrig mere dum, centraliseret planlægning."

But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

Men de kom herop, og Indien forsøgte at følge med.

And they were catching up indeed.

De halede så sandelig også ind.

And both countries had the better health, but still

Begge lande lande havde bedre sundhed, men stadigvæk

a very low economy.

en meget lille økonomi.

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

Og så kom vi frem til 1978, og Mao Zedong døde,

and a new guy turned up from the left.

og en ny mand dukkede op fra venstre.

And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.

Det var Deng Xiaoping.

And he said, "Doesn't matter

Han sagde "Pyt med,

if a cat is white or black,

om en kat er hvid eller sort,

as long as it catches mice."

så længde den kan fange mus."

Because catching mice

At fange mus

is what the two cats wanted to do.

er netop hvad de to katte ville.

And you can see the two cats being here,

I kan se de to katte her,

China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.

Kina og Indien, der vil fange musene derovre.

And they decided to go not only for health and education,

De besluttede sig for at fokusere på andet end sundhed og uddannelse,

but also starting to grow their economy.

nemlig deres økonomi.

And the market reformer was successful there.

Og reformeringen af markedet var succesfuldt.

In '92 India follows with a market reform.

I 1992 følger Indien trop med sin markedsreform.

And they go quite closely together,

De ligger ret tæt,

and you can see that the similarity with India and China,

og I kan se at lighederne mellem Indien og Kina,

in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.

på mange måder er større end forskellene.

And here they march on. And will they catch up?

Og de fortsætter. Vil de hale endnu mere ind?

This is the big question today.

Det er det store spørgsmål her idag.

There they are today.

Der er de idag.

Now what does it mean that the --

Hvad betyder det så, at --

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

the averages there -- this is the average of China.

gennemsnittet -- dette er Kinas gennemsnit.

If I would split China, look here,

Hvis jeg deler Kina op, se her,

Shanghai has already catched up.

Shanghai er allerede nået derop.

Shanghai is already there.

Shanghai er der allerede.

And it's healthier than the United States.

Det er sundere end USA

But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest

På den anden side, har vi Guizhou, en af de fattigste

inland provinces of China, is there.

provinser i Kina, her.

And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,

Hvis jeg deler Guizhou op i by og land,

the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.

så er landområdet i Guizhou dernede.

You see this enormous inequity in China,

I kan se disse enorme uligheder i Kina,

in the midst of fast economic growth.

samtidig med en hurtigt voksende økonomi.

And if I would also look at India,

Hvis vi nu ser på Indien,

you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.

er der en anden type af ulighed i Indien.

The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.

Den overordnede geografiske forskel er ikke så stor.

Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,

Uttar Pradesh, den største af staterne her,

is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.

er fattigere og mindre sundt end i resten af Indien.

Kerala is flying on top there,

Kerala er flyvende heroppe,

matching United States in health,

samme sundhedstilstand som USA

but not in economy.

men ikke samme økonomi.

And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,

Og her, Maharashtra, med Mumbai,

is forging forward.

kaster sig fremad.

Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,

I Indien ses de store uligheder inden for en stat,

rather than between the states.

og ikke mellem staterne.

And that is not a bad thing, in itself.

Det er ikke en dårlig ting i sig selv.

If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities

Har man store uligheder, kan geografiske uligheder,

can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,

være sværere at håndtere,

than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center

end hvis det er i samme område, med et vækstcenter

relatively close to where poor people are living.

tæt ved et område hvor der bor fattige mennesker.

No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.

Nej, der er en ulighed mere . Se her, USA

(Laughter)

(Latter)

Oh, they broke my frame.

Hov, de ødelagde min ramme.

Washington, D.C. went out here.

Washington, D.C. gik ud der.

My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this

Mine venner på Gapminder ville vise mig det her,

because there is a new leader in Washington

fordi der er en ny leder i Washington,

who is really concerned about the health system.

som er interesserer sig meget for sundhedssystemet.

And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.

Og jeg forstår ham, for Washington, D.C.

is so rich over there

er så rige herovre,

but they are not as healthy as Kerala.

men de er ikke lige så sunde som Kerala.

It's quite interesting, isn't it?

Det er ret interessant, ikke?

(Applause)

(Klapsalver)

I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,

Jeg ser en forretningsmulighed for Kerala,

helping fix the health system in the United States.

der kan hjælpe med at få styr på USA's sundhed.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.

Her har vi hele verden. Symbolforklaring hernede.

And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,

Og I kan se de to store katte her, skubbe fremad.

you see that in between them

Imellem dem

and ahead of them,

og foran dem,

is the whole emerging economies of the world,

er alle verdens voksende økonomier,

which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."

som Thomas Friedman så rigtigt kaldte for "den flade verden".

You can see that in health and education,

Med hensyn til sundhed og uddannelse

a large part of the world population is putting forward,

rykker en stor del af verden fremad,

but in Africa, and other parts,

men i Afrika og andre områder,

as in rural Guizhou in China,

som på landet i Guizhou i Kina,

there is still people with low health and very low economy.

er der stadig folk med dårligt helbred og meget lille økonomi.

We have an enormous disparity in the world.

Vi har enorme forskelle i verden.

But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.

Men det meste af verden i midten, kommer fremad meget hurtigt.

Now, back to my projections.

Tilbage til mine forudsigelser.

When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.

Hvornår vil Asien udligne? Jeg går tilbage til en meget konventionel graf.

I will show income per person on this axis instead,

Jeg viser indtægt per person på denne akse,

poor down here, rich up there.

fattige hernede, rige deroppe.

And then time here, from 1858

Tid er her, fra 1858

I start the world.

Jeg starter verden.

And we shall see what will happen with these countries.

Og vi får se, hvad der sker med landene.

You see, China under foreign domination

Mens Kina var under fremmed dominans,

actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.

faldt indkomsten faktisk og kom ned på Indiens niveau.

Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.

Alt imens Storbritannien og USA bliver rigere og rigere.

And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.

Efter Anden Verdenskrig er USA rigere end Storbritannien.

But independence is coming here.

Men så kommer uafhængigheden.

Growth is starting, economic reform.

Der kommer vækst, økonomisk forandring.

Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF

Væksten stiger, og Den Internationale Valutafond forudser,

you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

hvor man forventer landene vil være i 2014.

Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"

Spørgsmålet er "hvornår vil indhentningen ske?"

Look at, look at the United States.

Se på USA.

Can you see the bubble?

Kan I se boblen?

The bubbles, not my bubbles,

Ikke mine bobler,

but the financial bubbles.

men de finansielle bobler.

That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.

Det er it-boblen. Det her er Lehman Brothers dørtrin.

You see it came down there.

I kan se det gik ned.

And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.

Og en anden sten falder ned her.

So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.

De lader ikke til at gå denne vej, disse lande.

They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.

De vokser på en mere ydmyg måde.

And people interested in growth

Folk med interesse for vækst,

are turning their eyes towards Asia.

skuer mod Asien.

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.

Jeg kan sammenligne med Japan. Her kommer Japan op.

You see, Japan did it like that.

Japan gjorde det således.

We add Japan to it.

Vi tilføjer Japan.

And there is no doubt that fast catch up

Ingen tvivl om at hurtig indhentning

can take place.

kan finde sted.

Can you see here what Japan did?

Kan I se hvad Japan gjorde?

Japan did it like this, until full catch up,

Japan gjorde sådan her, indtil de havde indhentet helt,

and then they follow with the other high-income economies.

og så følger de med de andre højindkomstlandene.

But the real projections for those ones,

Men de virkelige forudsigelser for de her lande

I would like to give it like this.

vil jeg gerne gøre således.

Can be worse, can be better.

Kan blive værre, kan blive bedre.

It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.

Det er altid vanskeligt at spå, især om fremtiden.

Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.

En historiker vil sige det er sværere at forudsige om fortiden.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

I think I'm in a difficult position here.

Jeg synes det er en svær situation her.

Inequalities in China and India

Uligheder i Kina og Indien

I consider really the big obstacle

ser jeg som de store problemer,

because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity

fordi hvis hele nationen er i vækst,

is what will create a domestic market,

skaber det et indenrigsmarked,

what will avoid social instability,

og man undgår social ustabilitet

and which will make use of the entire capacity

og kan udnytte

of the population.

hele befolkningens kapacitet.

So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,

Så, investeringer i sundhed, uddannelse, infrastruktur

and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

og elektricitet, er hvad Indien og Kina virkelig har brug for.

You know the climate. We have great international experts

I kender klimaet. Gode, internationale eksperter i Indien

within India telling us that the climate is changing,

fortæller os at klimaet ændrer sig,

and actions has to be taken,

og at der er brug for handling,

otherwise China and India would be the countries

ellers vil Kina og Indien være de lande,

most to suffer from climate change.

der vil lide mest under klimaforandringerne.

And I consider India and China the best partners in the world

Jeg anser Indien og Kina for at være verdens bedste partnere

in a good global climate policy.

i en god, global klimapolitik.

But they ain't going to pay

Men de vil ikke betale for

for what others, who have more money,

hvad andre, der er rigere,

have largely created, and I can agree on that.

selv har skabt, og jeg er enig med dem.

But what I'm really worried about is war.

Men hvad der virkeligt bekymrer mig, er krig.

Will the former rich countries really accept

Vil de tidligere rige lande virkelig acceptere

a completely changed world economy,

en fuldstændig ændret verdensøkonomi,

and a shift of power away from where it has been

og et magtskifte væk fra, hvor det har været

the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,

i de sidste 50 til 150 år,

back to Asia?

og tilbage til Asien?

And will Asia be able to handle that

Vil Asien kunne håndtere sin

new position of being in charge

nye ansvarsfulde position som den mægtigste

of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?

og verdens vogter?

So, always avoid war,

Så, undgå krig

because that always pushes human beings backward.

for krig har altid skubbet mennesker bagud.

Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,

Hvis disse uligheder, klima og krig kan undgåes

get ready for a world in equity,

så vær klar til en ligeværdig verden.

because this is what seems to be happening.

Fordi det er hvad der ser ud til at være ved at ske.

And that vision that I got as a young student,

Og den oplevelse jeg fik som ung studerende,

1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,

i 1972, at indere kan være meget bedre end svenskere,

is just about to happen.

er lige ved at ske

And it will happen precisely

Og det vil ske præcist

the year 2048

i året 2048,

in the later part of the summer, in July,

i sensommeren, i juli måned,

more precisely, the 27th of July.

nærmere bestemt den 27. juli.

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)

The 27th of July, 2048

Den 27. juli 2048

is my 100th birthday.

fylder jeg 100 år.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

And I expect to speak

Og jeg forventer at tale

in the first session of the 39th TED India.

ved den første del af det 39. TED India.

Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.

Sæt kryds i kalenderen. Mange tak.

(Applause)

(Klapsalve)