Asia's rise -- how and when | Hans Rosling

415,266 views ・ 2009-11-25

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Prevoditelj: Martina Mijuskovic Recezent: Predrag Pale
00:17
Once upon a time,
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Jednom davno,
00:19
at the age of 24,
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kad sam imao 24 godine,
00:21
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.
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bio sam student medicinskog koledža St. John u Bangaloreu.
00:26
I was a guest student during one month
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Bio sam gostujući student tijekom jednomjesečnog seminara
00:29
of a public health course.
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o javnom zdravstvu.
00:31
And that changed my mindset forever.
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I to je zauvijek promijenilo moj način razmišljanja.
00:34
The course was good, but it was not the course content
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Kurs je bio dobar, ali njegov sadržaj nije ono
00:37
in itself that changed the mindset.
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što je promijenilo moj način razmišljanja.
00:39
It was the brutal realization,
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Bila je to brutalna istina,
00:41
the first morning,
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koju sam shvatio prvog jutra,
00:43
that the Indian students were better than me.
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da su indijski studenti bolji od mene.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:47
You see, I was a study nerd.
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Vidite, ja sam bio štreber.
00:49
I loved statistics from a young age.
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Volio sam statistiku od rane mladosti.
00:51
And I studied very much in Sweden.
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I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj.
00:53
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
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Bio sam u najboljoj četvrtini svih seminara koje sam pohađao.
00:57
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.
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No, u St. John-u bio sam u najlošijoj četvrtini.
01:01
And the fact was that Indian students
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Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti
01:03
studied harder than we did in Sweden.
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učili puno više nego mi u Švedskoj.
01:06
They read the textbook twice,
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Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta,
01:08
or three times or four times.
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ili tri ili četiri puta.
01:10
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
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U Švedskoj smo ga pročitali jednom i zatim otišli na tulum.
01:13
(Laugher)
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(smijeh)
01:15
And that, to me,
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I to je, meni,
01:18
that personal experience
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to osobno iskustvo,
01:20
was the first time in my life
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prvi put u mom životu
01:23
that the mindset I grew up with
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promijenilo razmišljanje
01:25
was changed.
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s kojim sam odrastao.
01:28
And I realized that perhaps
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I shvatio sam da možda
01:30
the Western world will not continue
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Zapad neće nastaviti
01:32
to dominate the world forever.
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dominirati svijetom zauvijek.
01:35
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
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Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju slična osobna iskustva.
01:39
It's that realization of someone you meet
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To je spoznaja da je netko koga ste upoznali
01:42
that really made you change your ideas about the world.
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zaista promijenio vaš pogled na svijet.
01:44
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
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To nisu samo statistike, iako to ja pokušavam prikazati na zabavan način.
01:48
And I will now,
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Ja ću sada,
01:52
here, onstage,
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ovdje, na pozornici,
01:54
try to predict when that will happen --
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pokušati predvidjeti kad će se to dogoditi,
01:57
that Asia will regain
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da Azija vrati
02:02
its dominant position
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svoj dominantan položaj
02:04
as the leading part of the world,
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kao vodeći dio svijeta,
02:06
as it used to be, over thousands of years.
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kao što je to bilo nekad, tisućama godina.
02:10
And I will do that
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Ja ću to učiniti tako
02:12
by trying to predict precisely
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da pokušam precizno predvidjeti
02:15
at what year
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koje će godine
02:17
the average income per person
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prosječan prihod po osobi
02:19
in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
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u Indiji i Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu.
02:22
And I don't mean the whole economy,
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Pri tome ne mislim na cijelo gospodarstvo,
02:24
because to grow an economy
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jer porast ekonomije u Indiji
02:26
of India to the size of U.K. --
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na veličinu ekonomije Velike Britanije,
02:28
that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.
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vrlo je lako, s jednom milijardom ljudi.
02:31
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money
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Ja želim znati kada će prosječna plaća, novac
02:35
for each person, per month,
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po svakoj osobi, mjesečno,
02:37
in India and China,
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u Indiji i Kini,
02:39
when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
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doseći plaće u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?
02:43
But I will start with a historical background.
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Počet ću s povijesnim pregledom.
02:46
And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?
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Možete vidjeti moju mapu, zar ne?
02:49
I will start at 1858.
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Počet ću s 1858.g.
02:52
1858 was a year of great technological
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1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog
02:56
advancement in the West.
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napretka na Zapadu.
02:58
That was the year when Queen Victoria
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Te godine je Kraljica Victoria
03:01
was able, for the first time, to communicate
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prvi put bila u mogućnosti komunicirati
03:03
with President Buchanan,
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s predsjednikom Buchananom,
03:05
through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
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preko transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla.
03:08
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.
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Oni su bili prvi koji su cvrkutali ("Twitter") preko oceana.
03:11
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
03:12
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
03:16
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,
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Uz pomoć ovog divnog Googla i Interneta,
03:19
to find the text of the telegram
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uspio sam pronaći tekst telegrama
03:21
sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
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koji je Buchanan poslao kraljici Victorii.
03:25
And it ends like this: "This telegraph
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Završavao je ovako: "Ovaj telegraf
03:28
is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,
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je sjajan instrument za promicanje religije,
03:30
civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
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civilizacije, slobode i prava diljem svijeta."
03:34
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious
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To su lijepe riječi. Ali postao sam radoznao
03:37
of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
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što je on mislio pod slobodom, i slobodom za koga.
03:41
And we will think about that
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Razmislimo o tome
03:43
when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
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kada gledamo širu sliku svijeta u 1858-oj.
03:47
Because 1858
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Jer 1858. g.
03:49
was also watershed year
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bila je prekretnica
03:52
in the history of Asia.
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u povijesti Azije.
03:54
1858 was the year
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1858. je bila godina
03:56
when the courageous uprising
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kada je hrabri ustanak
03:58
against the foreign occupation of India
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protiv strane okupacije Indije
04:01
was defeated by the British forces.
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ugušila britanska vojska.
04:03
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
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A Indija je podvrgnuta dodatnih 89 godina stranoj dominaciji.
04:08
1858 in China
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1858. u Kini
04:10
was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
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bila je godina pobjede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu.
04:14
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,
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To je značilo da stranci, kako je rečeno u mirovnom sporazumu,
04:17
were allowed to trade freely in China.
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mogu slobodno trgovati u Kini.
04:19
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
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To je značilo plaćati opijumom za kinesku robu.
04:23
And 1858 in Japan
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1858. u Japanu
04:25
was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty
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bila je godina kad je Japan morao potpisati Harrisov sporazum
04:28
and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
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i prihvatiti trgovinu pod uvjetima povoljnima za SAD.
04:32
And they were threatened by those black ships there,
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To je bilo pod prijetnjom crnih brodova
04:36
that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
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koji su preko godinu dana bili usidreni u luci u Tokyu.
04:38
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,
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Ali Japan je, za razliku od Indije i Kine
04:42
maintained its national sovereignty.
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zadržao nacionalni suverenitet.
04:45
And let's see how much difference that can make.
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Pogledajmo kakvu razliku to čini.
04:48
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles
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Pokazat ću to tako da stavim ove balončiće
04:51
back to a Gapminder graph here,
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natrag u Gapminder graf
04:53
where you can see each bubble is a country.
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gdje je svaki balončić jedna zemlja.
04:56
The size of the bubble here is the population.
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Veličina balončića je veličina populacije.
04:59
On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
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Na ovoj osi (x) je prihod po osobi u komparativnoj valuti.
05:04
And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
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Na drugoj osi (y) je očekivano trajanje života, zdravlje ljudi.
05:08
And I also bring an innovation here.
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Uvodim još jednu inovaciju ovdje.
05:10
I have transformed the laser beam
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Transformirao sam lasersku zraku
05:13
into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
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u njezinu ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati, ovdje u zelenoj Indiji.
05:18
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
05:22
And we will see, you know.
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I sad ćemo vidjeti.
05:25
Look here, 1858, India was here,
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Gledajte, 1858, Indija je ovdje,
05:28
China was here, Japan was there,
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tu je Kina, tamo Japan
05:30
United States and United Kingdom
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Sjedinjene američe države i Velika Britanija
05:32
was richer over there.
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bile su bogatije, tamo.
05:34
And I will start the world like this.
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I sad ću pokrenuti svijet ovako.
05:37
India was not always like this level.
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Indija nije uvijek bila na ovom nivou.
05:39
Actually if we go back into the historical record,
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Ako se vratimo u povijest,
05:41
there was a time hundreds of years ago
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jedno je vrijeme, prije nekoliko stotina godina,
05:43
when the income per person in India and China
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kad je prihod po osobi u Indiji i Kini
05:45
was even above that of Europe.
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bio čak iznad onoga u Europi.
05:47
But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,
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Ali 1850. imamo već mnogo mnogo godina strane dominacije,
05:51
and India had been de-industrialized.
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i Indija je bila deindustrijalizirana.
05:54
And you can see that the countries who were growing
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Zemlje koje su gospodarski rasle
05:56
their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
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bile su Sjedinjene Države i Velika Britanija.
05:58
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,
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One su također, pred kraj stoljeća, postajale sve zdravije
06:01
and Japan was starting to catch up.
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i Japan ih je počeo sustizati.
06:03
India was trying down here.
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Indija je pokušavala ovdje dolje.
06:05
Can you see how it starts to move there?
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Vidite li kako se počinje micati tamo?
06:07
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
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Nacionalni suverenitet je bio jako dobar za Japan.
06:11
And Japan is trying to move up there.
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I Japan se pokušava pomaknuti tamo gore.
06:13
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,
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I došlo je novo stoljeće. Zdravstvo se popravilo,
06:15
United Kingdom, United States.
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Velika Britanija, SAD,
06:17
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.
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ali pazite, približava se Prvi svjetski rat.
06:20
And the First World War, you know,
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U Prvom svjetskom ratu, znate
06:22
we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
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vidjet ćemo mnogo smrti i gospodarskih problema.
06:26
United Kingdom is going down.
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Velika Britanija pada dolje
06:28
And now comes the Spanish flu also.
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Dolazi i španjolska gripa.
06:30
And then after the First World War, they continue up.
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Nakon Prvog svjetskog rata, one nastavljaju put prema gore.
06:33
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,
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Još uvijek pod stranom dominacijom, bez suvereniteta,
06:36
India and China are down in the corner.
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Indija i Kina su dolje u kutu.
06:38
Not much has happened.
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Nije se puno toga promijenilo.
06:40
They have grown their population but not much more.
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Populacija im je narasla, ali to je sve.
06:42
In the 1930's now, you can see
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U 1930-tima, možete vidjeti
06:44
that Japan is going to a period of war,
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da Japan prolazi kroz period rata
06:47
with lower life expectancy.
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s nižim očekivanim trajanjem života.
06:49
And the Second World War was really a terrible event,
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Drugi svjetski rat je zaista tragičan događaj,
06:51
also economically for Japan.
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također za gospodarstvo Japana.
06:53
But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
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Ali oni su se vrlo brzo oporavili nakon toga.
06:55
And we are moving into the new world.
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I krećemo u novi svijet.
06:57
In 1947 India finally
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1947. Indija napokon
07:00
gained its independence.
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postaje neovisna.
07:02
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,
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Mogli su izvjesiti indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija,
07:06
but in very big difficulties down there.
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ali su u vrlo velikim teškoćama tamo dolje.
07:09
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
07:12
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China
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1949. vidjeli smo početke moderne Kine
07:16
in a way which surprised the world.
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na način koji je iznenadio svijet.
07:18
And what happened?
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I što se dogodilo?
07:20
What happens in the after independence?
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Što se događa nakon neovisnosti?
07:22
You can see that the health started to improve.
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Vidite da se zdravlje počelo popravljati.
07:24
Children started to go to school.
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Djeca su krenula u školu.
07:26
Health services were provided.
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Pružena je zdravstvena skrb.
07:28
This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
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To je bilo veliki korak naprijed, a onda je Kina pala.
07:32
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
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To je centralno plansko gospodarstvo Mao Tse Tunga.
07:34
China recovered. Then they said,
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Zatim se Kina oporavila. Rekli su,
07:36
"Nevermore, stupid central planning."
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"Nikada više, glupo centralno planiranje."
07:38
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
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I otišli su tu gore, a Indija je nastojala slijediti.
07:41
And they were catching up indeed.
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I zaista su ih dostizali.
07:43
And both countries had the better health, but still
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Obje zemlje su imale bolje zdravstvo,
07:45
a very low economy.
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ali još uvijek loše gospodarstvo.
07:47
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,
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I dolazimo do 1978., Mao Tse Tung je umro,
07:50
and a new guy turned up from the left.
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i dolazi novi tip s lijeva.
07:53
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
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Dolazi Deng Xiaoping.
07:56
And he said, "Doesn't matter
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On kaže, "Nema veze
07:58
if a cat is white or black,
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je li mačka bijela ili crna,
08:00
as long as it catches mice."
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sve dok hvata miševe."
08:02
Because catching mice
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Jer hvatanje miševa
08:04
is what the two cats wanted to do.
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je ono što su dvije mačke htjele raditi.
08:07
And you can see the two cats being here,
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I možete vidjeti dvije mačke ovdje,
08:10
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
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Kina i Indija, kako žele uloviti miševe tamo.
08:13
And they decided to go not only for health and education,
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Odlučile su ići ne samo na zdravstvo i edukaciju,
08:16
but also starting to grow their economy.
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nego i gospodarski rast.
08:18
And the market reformer was successful there.
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Reformator tržišta bio je ovdje uspješan.
08:20
In '92 India follows with a market reform.
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1992. Indija slijedi s reformom tržišta.
08:23
And they go quite closely together,
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I one putuju vrlo blizu zajedno,
08:25
and you can see that the similarity with India and China,
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i vidi se kako je sličnost između Indije i Kine,
08:27
in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
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na više načina, veća od razlika među njima.
08:30
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
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I one marširaju naprijed. Hoće li dostići?
08:32
This is the big question today.
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To je veliko pitanje sad.
08:34
There they are today.
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Ovdje su one danas.
08:36
Now what does it mean that the --
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To znači da je --
08:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
08:41
the averages there -- this is the average of China.
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prosjek , ovo je prosjek Kine.
08:44
If I would split China, look here,
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Ako bih podijelio Kinu, pogledajte,
08:46
Shanghai has already catched up.
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Shanghai je već dostigao.
08:49
Shanghai is already there.
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Shanghai je već tamo.
08:51
And it's healthier than the United States.
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I zdraviji je nego Sjedinjene Države.
08:55
But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest
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No, s druge strane, Guizhou, jedna od
08:58
inland provinces of China, is there.
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najsiromašnijih provincija Kine, je tamo.
09:01
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,
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A ako podijelim Guizhou u urbani i ruralni,
09:05
the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
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ruralni dio ide tamo dolje.
09:08
You see this enormous inequity in China,
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Vidite ogromne razlike unutar Kine,
09:11
in the midst of fast economic growth.
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usred brzog gospodarskog rasta.
09:13
And if I would also look at India,
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A ako pogledam Indiju,
09:15
you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
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tu imate drugu vrstu nejednakosti.
09:18
The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.
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Geografske, makrogeografska razlika nije velika.
09:23
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,
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Uttar Pradesh, najveća pokrajina,
09:25
is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
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siromašnija je i ima slabije zdravlje od ostatka Indije.
09:28
Kerala is flying on top there,
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Kerala leti tamo na vrhu,
09:31
matching United States in health,
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dostigavši Sjedinjene Države po zdravstvu,
09:33
but not in economy.
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ali ne i u gospodarstvu.
09:35
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,
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A ovdje, Maharashtra, s Mumbaiem,
09:37
is forging forward.
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brza naprijed.
09:39
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,
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U Indiji su, dakle, velike nejednakosti u unutar pokrajine,
09:42
rather than between the states.
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a ne između pokrajina.
09:44
And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
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A to nije samo po sebi loše.
09:47
If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities
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Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti
09:51
can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,
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dugoročno su veći problem
09:54
than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
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nego nedjednakosti u istom području gdje imate centar rasta
09:57
relatively close to where poor people are living.
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blizu mjesta gdje žive siromašni.
10:00
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
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No, tu je još jedna nejednakost. Pogledajte ovdje, Sjedinjene Države.
10:03
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:04
Oh, they broke my frame.
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Oh, probile su moj okvir.
10:06
Washington, D.C. went out here.
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Washington D.C. se probio tamo.
10:09
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this
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Moji prijatelji u Gapminderu su htjeli da ovo pokažem
10:12
because there is a new leader in Washington
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jer sada je novi lider u Washingtonu
10:14
who is really concerned about the health system.
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koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstvo.
10:16
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.
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Mogu ga razumjeti, jer je Washinton D.C.
10:19
is so rich over there
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silno bogat
10:22
but they are not as healthy as Kerala.
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ali ne tako zdrav kao Kerala.
10:24
It's quite interesting, isn't it?
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Zanimljivo, zar ne?
10:26
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
10:31
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,
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Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu,
10:34
helping fix the health system in the United States.
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da pomognu popraviti zdravstvo u Sjedinjenim Državama.
10:36
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
10:40
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.
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Ovdje sad imamo cijeli svijet. Vidite legendu tamo dolje.
10:43
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,
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I kada vidite dvije divovske mačke ovdje, kako idu naprijed,
10:47
you see that in between them
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vidite da su između njih
10:49
and ahead of them,
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i pred njima,
10:51
is the whole emerging economies of the world,
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cijela nova gospodarstva svijeta,
10:53
which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."
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koja je Thomas Friedman ispravno zvao "ravni svijet".
10:57
You can see that in health and education,
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Vidite da u zdravstvu i edukaciji
10:59
a large part of the world population is putting forward,
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velik dio svijeta ide naprijed,
11:02
but in Africa, and other parts,
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ali u Africi, i drugim mjestima,
11:04
as in rural Guizhou in China,
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kao u ruralnom Guizhou u Kini,
11:06
there is still people with low health and very low economy.
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još žive ljudi s lošim zdravstvom i vrlo slabim gospodarstvom.
11:09
We have an enormous disparity in the world.
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Imamo ogromne nejednakosti u svijetu.
11:11
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
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Ali većina svijeta u sredini ide naprijed vrlo brzo.
11:16
Now, back to my projections.
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Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima.
11:18
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
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Kada će nas sustići? Moram se vratiti konvencionalnom prikazu.
11:23
I will show income per person on this axis instead,
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Pokazat ću prihod po osobi na ovoj osi (y),
11:26
poor down here, rich up there.
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siromašni tu dolje, bogati tamo gore.
11:28
And then time here, from 1858
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I onda vrijeme, od 1858.
11:30
I start the world.
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Pokrećem svijet.
11:32
And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
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Vidjet ćemo što se događa s ovim zemljama.
11:35
You see, China under foreign domination
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Vidite, u Kini se pod stranom dominacijom
11:38
actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
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prihod zapravo smanjio i završio dolje na razini Indije.
11:41
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.
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Za to vrijeme Velika Britanija i SAD su postajale bogatije i bogatije.
11:45
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
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Nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, SAD su bogatije nego Velika Britanija.
11:48
But independence is coming here.
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Ali dolazi neovisnost-
11:50
Growth is starting, economic reform.
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Počinje rast, gospodarska reforma.
11:52
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF
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Rast je brži i po projekciji od IMF-a
11:55
you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
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vidite gdje ih se očekuje 2014.
11:59
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"
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No, pitanje je, "Kad će nas sustići?"
12:04
Look at, look at the United States.
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Pogledajte Sjedinjene Države.
12:06
Can you see the bubble?
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Vidite li balončić?
12:08
The bubbles, not my bubbles,
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Balončići, ne ovi moji,
12:10
but the financial bubbles.
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nego financijski balončići.
12:12
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.
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Ovo je "dot com" balončić. Ovo je Lehman Brothers.
12:17
You see it came down there.
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Vidite kako je pao ovdje.
12:19
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
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Izgleda da još jedan pada ovdje, znate.
12:24
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.
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Ne izgleda da te zemlje idu ovim putem.
12:27
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
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Izgleda da rastu puno skromnijom brzinom.
12:30
And people interested in growth
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A ljudi zainteresirani za rast
12:32
are turning their eyes towards Asia.
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okreću se prema Aziji.
12:35
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.
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Mogu usporediti s Japanom. Ovo je Japan kako se uzdiže.
12:38
You see, Japan did it like that.
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Vidite, Japan je to učinio ovako.
12:40
We add Japan to it.
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Dodajemo Japan.
12:42
And there is no doubt that fast catch up
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Nema sumnje da je moguće
12:45
can take place.
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brzo sustizanje.
12:47
Can you see here what Japan did?
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Vidite li što je Japan napravio?
12:49
Japan did it like this, until full catch up,
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Japan je to učinio ovako, dok nije u potpunosti sustigao,
12:51
and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
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i nakon toga slijedi ostale bogate zemlje.
12:55
But the real projections for those ones,
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No pravu procjenu za njih
12:58
I would like to give it like this.
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bih napravio ovako.
13:03
Can be worse, can be better.
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Može biti gore, može biti bolje.
13:05
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.
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Nije lako predviđati, naročito budućnost.
13:09
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
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Jedan povjesničar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.
13:12
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
13:14
I think I'm in a difficult position here.
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Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovdje.
13:17
Inequalities in China and India
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Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji
13:19
I consider really the big obstacle
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smatram velikom preprekom
13:23
because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity
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jer rast i blagostanje cijele populacije
13:27
is what will create a domestic market,
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ono je što stvara domaće tržište,
13:29
what will avoid social instability,
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što stvara stabilnost u društvu,
13:32
and which will make use of the entire capacity
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i može iskoristiti
13:35
of the population.
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cijeli kapacitet populacije.
13:37
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,
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Dakle, socijalne investicije u zdravstvo, edukaciju i infrastrukturu,
13:41
and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
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struju, ono je što treba Indiji i Kini.
13:47
You know the climate. We have great international experts
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Klima. Imamo sjajne priznate stručnjake u Indiji
13:50
within India telling us that the climate is changing,
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koji nam govore da se klima mijenja,
13:53
and actions has to be taken,
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i da se nešto mora poduzeti,
13:55
otherwise China and India would be the countries
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inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje
13:58
most to suffer from climate change.
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koje će najviše patiti zbog promjene klime.
14:00
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world
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Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svijetu
14:03
in a good global climate policy.
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za dobru globalnu klimatsku politiku.
14:06
But they ain't going to pay
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Ali oni neće platiti za probleme
14:08
for what others, who have more money,
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koje su ostali, koji imaju više novca, stvorili,
14:10
have largely created, and I can agree on that.
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i ja se mogu s tim složiti.
14:13
But what I'm really worried about is war.
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Ali ono što me zaista brine je rat.
14:16
Will the former rich countries really accept
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Hoće li bivše bogate zemlje zaista prihvatiti
14:18
a completely changed world economy,
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potpuno izmjenjeno svjetsko gospodarstvo
14:21
and a shift of power away from where it has been
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i pomicanje moći izvan centra gdje je bila
14:24
the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,
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u zadnjih 50 do 100 do 150 godina,
14:26
back to Asia?
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natrag u Aziju?
14:28
And will Asia be able to handle that
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Hoće li Azija biti u stanju
14:30
new position of being in charge
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nositi se s novom pozicijom
14:32
of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?
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najmoćnijega, i vladara svijeta?
14:35
So, always avoid war,
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Izbjegavajmo rat,
14:37
because that always pushes human beings backward.
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jer to uvijek gurne ljudsko društvo unazad.
14:40
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,
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Ako se ove nejednakosti, klima i rat mogu izbjeći,
14:44
get ready for a world in equity,
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spremite se za svijet u jednakosti.
14:47
because this is what seems to be happening.
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Jer čini se da se to događa.
14:50
And that vision that I got as a young student,
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I vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student,
14:52
1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,
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1972, da su Indijci puno bolji od Šveđana,
14:58
is just about to happen.
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uskoro će se obistiniti.
15:00
And it will happen precisely
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I to će se dogoditi točno
15:03
the year 2048
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godine 2048
15:07
in the later part of the summer, in July,
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u drugom dijelu ljeta, u srpnju,
15:10
more precisely, the 27th of July.
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preciznije, 27. srpnja.
15:13
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
15:21
The 27th of July, 2048
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27. srpnja 2048
15:25
is my 100th birthday.
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je moj 100-ti rođendan.
15:27
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:29
And I expect to speak
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Očekujem da ću govoriti
15:31
in the first session of the 39th TED India.
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u prvom dijelu 39.-tog TEDIndia.
15:35
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
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Napravite rezervacije na vrijeme. Hvala puno.
15:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
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