Asia's rise -- how and when | Hans Rosling

譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai 審譯者: Geoff Chen

Once upon a time,

很久以前

at the age of 24,

當我24歲的時候

I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.

我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生

I was a guest student during one month

我那是是一個月的交換學生

of a public health course.

研讀公共衛生的課程

And that changed my mindset forever.

而那一個月徹底改變了我的心態

The course was good, but it was not the course content

課程雖好，但使我心態改變的原因

in itself that changed the mindset.

不是因爲授課内容

It was the brutal realization,

而是第一個早上

the first morning,

我殘酷地了解到

that the Indian students were better than me.

印度學生竟然比我還好

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You see, I was a study nerd.

以前的我是個書呆子

I loved statistics from a young age.

從小就喜歡統計學

And I studied very much in Sweden.

我在瑞典時也很用功

I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.

在班上我一直是前幾名

But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.

但是在聖約翰學院，我變成倒數的幾名

And the fact was that Indian students

印度的學生

studied harder than we did in Sweden.

都比瑞典的學生還要用功

They read the textbook twice,

他們把教科書都唸兩遍

or three times or four times.

三遍甚至四遍

In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

在瑞典，我們唸完一遍就去玩了

(Laugher)

（笑聲）

And that, to me,

對我而言

that personal experience

這樣子的個人體驗

was the first time in my life

是我人生中第一次

that the mindset I grew up with

使我固有的心態

was changed.

被徹底改變

And I realized that perhaps

同時我也領悟

the Western world will not continue

或許西方世界將無法

to dominate the world forever.

永遠主導全球

And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.

我想你們大概都有過類似的經驗

It's that realization of someone you meet

那種遇到某個人卻使你

that really made you change your ideas about the world.

對這個世界的看法完全改觀

It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

雖然我試著讓它聼起來有趣，但這不是統計學

And I will now,

接下來我會

here, onstage,

在這個台上

try to predict when that will happen --

試著來預測

that Asia will regain

什麽時候，亞洲會再奪回

its dominant position

它的優勢地位

as the leading part of the world,

來領導這個世界

as it used to be, over thousands of years.

如同過去的幾千年那樣

And I will do that

我並會試著

by trying to predict precisely

準確地預測出

at what year

在哪一年

the average income per person

在印度與中國的個人平均所得

in India, in China, will reach that of the West.

會趕上西方

And I don't mean the whole economy,

我不是指總體經濟而言

because to grow an economy

因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模

of India to the size of U.K. --

成長到像英國那麽大

that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.

對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的

But I want to see when will the average pay, the money

我想看的是個人平均所得

for each person, per month,

每一個人，每一個月

in India and China,

在印度和在中國的收入

when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

幾時會跟英國和美國的水準一樣？

But I will start with a historical background.

我會先介紹一些歷史背景

And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?

我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧？

I will start at 1858.

我從1858年開始

1858 was a year of great technological

1858年在西方

advancement in the West.

是有偉大科技進步的一年

That was the year when Queen Victoria

在這一年，維多莉亞皇后

was able, for the first time, to communicate

有史以來第一次能

with President Buchanan,

跟美國的布坎南總統通訊

through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.

他們是透過大西洋底的電報纜來通訊

And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.

而且他們也是第一對橫跨大西洋使用"Twitter"的人

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,

透過網路和 Google

to find the text of the telegram

讓我找到了

sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.

布坎南回送給維多利亞的電報内容

And it ends like this: "This telegraph

最後一行說：這個電報

is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,

將是一個神奇的工具

civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

可以用來向全世界傳播宗教、文明、自由、和法律。

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious

這些話是挺動聽的。但是我很好奇想知道

of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.

他說的自由是什麽意思，是誰的自由？

And we will think about that

當我們更完整地看1858年的世界的話

when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.

我們勢必會再想想。

Because 1858

因爲1858年

was also watershed year

在亞洲的歷史上

in the history of Asia.

是個分水嶺

1858 was the year

在1858年

when the courageous uprising

勇敢的印度人起義反抗

against the foreign occupation of India

對抗外來的統治政權

was defeated by the British forces.

卻被英國軍隊打敗

And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

使得印度又再忍受89年外國勢力的統治

1858 in China

1858年在中國

was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.

英國軍隊打勝了鴉片戰爭

And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,

戰後的條約使得外國人

were allowed to trade freely in China.

可以自由地在中國從事賣賣

It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

他們用鴉片來買中國的物產

And 1858 in Japan

1858年在日本

was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty

簽署了哈里斯條約

and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.

使得美國佔有貿易優勢

And they were threatened by those black ships there,

之前一年，那些在東京港出現的黑船

that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.

已使日本飽受威脅

But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,

但是，跟印度和中國不同的是

maintained its national sovereignty.

日本得以保持國家主權的完整

And let's see how much difference that can make.

我們可以看看這在以後產生了什麽差異

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles

我會用這些泡泡

back to a Gapminder graph here,

在Gapminder圖上顯示

where you can see each bubble is a country.

每一個泡泡代表的是一個國家

The size of the bubble here is the population.

泡泡的大小表示國家人口

On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.

在X軸，是換算成美元的人均收入

And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.

Y軸表示平均壽命，人民的健康

And I also bring an innovation here.

在這兒，我也帶來了一點創新：

I have transformed the laser beam

在這個綠色的印度，我已經把雷射光筆

into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

換成環保可回收的式樣了

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And we will see, you know.

我們將開始流覽，

Look here, 1858, India was here,

看這裡，1858年的印度在這裡

China was here, Japan was there,

中國在這裡，日本在那裏

United States and United Kingdom

美國，英國

was richer over there.

在那裏，他們比較有錢

And I will start the world like this.

我從這裡開始世界

India was not always like this level.

印度以前的水準不是一直這樣的

Actually if we go back into the historical record,

我們如果回頭看看歷史的記載

there was a time hundreds of years ago

幾百年前

when the income per person in India and China

印度和中國的個人所得

was even above that of Europe.

是在歐洲之上的

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,

但在1850年，已有很多年的外國勢力統治

and India had been de-industrialized.

印度的工業生產能力被削減了

And you can see that the countries who were growing

你可以看到那些經濟有所成長的國家

their economy was United States and United Kingdom.

是美國及英國

And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,

而在世紀末時，他們的國民也更健康了

and Japan was starting to catch up.

日本也開始急起直追

India was trying down here.

印度還停留在下面

Can you see how it starts to move there?

你看得到它是如何往那裏移動的嗎？

But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.

主權完整對日本來説是很有益的

And Japan is trying to move up there.

日本一直往上移動

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,

進入新的世紀，國民健康越來越好

United Kingdom, United States.

英國，美國

But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.

但是小心，我們現在接近第一次世界大戰

And the First World War, you know,

第一次世界大戰，你也知道

we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.

我們會看到很多死亡和經濟問題

United Kingdom is going down.

英國開始走下坡

And now comes the Spanish flu also.

現在又有西班牙流感

And then after the First World War, they continue up.

第一次世界大戰過後，他們持續上升

Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,

仍然在外國政權的統治下，沒有獨立主權

India and China are down in the corner.

印度和中國仍在下面的角落

Not much has happened.

沒什麽大改變

They have grown their population but not much more.

他們的人口有增加，此外就沒什麽變化

In the 1930's now, you can see

到了1930年，你可以看到

that Japan is going to a period of war,

日本在戰爭時期

with lower life expectancy.

國民壽命不長

And the Second World War was really a terrible event,

第二次世界大戰對日本來説是一段可怕的經歷

also economically for Japan.

在經濟上也是如此

But they did recover quite fast afterwards.

但戰後他們恢復得相當迅速

And we are moving into the new world.

接下來我們進入了一個新世界

In 1947 India finally

印度在1947年

gained its independence.

終於獲得獨立了

And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,

他們終於可以升上國旗，成為一個主權國家

but in very big difficulties down there.

但是他們還是在停留在下面，舉步維艱

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China

在1949年，我們看到了新中國的誕生

in a way which surprised the world.

這讓全世界都感到驚訝

And what happened?

之後呢？

What happens in the after independence?

新中國成立後發生什麽呢？

You can see that the health started to improve.

你可以看到國民健康開始有進步

Children started to go to school.

孩童開始去學校

Health services were provided.

開始有醫療設施

This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.

而在大躍進時期，中國摔了一大跤

It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.

那是毛澤東的計畫經濟

China recovered. Then they said,

中國恢復了以後，他們就說

"Nevermore, stupid central planning."

“愚蠢的計畫經濟，以後別再搞了”

But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.

中國開始往上，印度緊追在後

And they were catching up indeed.

接著印度開始趕上

And both countries had the better health, but still

兩個國家的國民健康都有所改善

a very low economy.

但是經濟所得仍然不高

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,

到1978年毛澤東死了

and a new guy turned up from the left.

新的領導人從左邊出現

And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.

那是鄧小平

And he said, "Doesn't matter

他說：“不管黑貓白貓

if a cat is white or black,

只要是會抓老鼠的

as long as it catches mice."

就是好貓”

Because catching mice

因爲抓老鼠

is what the two cats wanted to do.

是這兩隻貓想做的

And you can see the two cats being here,

你可以看到中國和印度

China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.

這兩隻貓想要抓到在那裏的老鼠

And they decided to go not only for health and education,

他們決定不只要發展醫療和教育

but also starting to grow their economy.

也要開始發展經濟

And the market reformer was successful there.

市場改革在那裏也是成功的

In '92 India follows with a market reform.

1992年，印度也開始了市場改革

And they go quite closely together,

他們互相跟得很近

and you can see that the similarity with India and China,

你可以看到印度和中國的相似性

in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.

在很多方面，他們之間的相似性大於差異

And here they march on. And will they catch up?

他們還一直往前進。他們最後會趕上嗎？

This is the big question today.

這是當今一個大哉問

There they are today.

現在他們在那裏

Now what does it mean that the --

這平均值是什麽意思

(Applause)

（掌聲）

the averages there -- this is the average of China.

這是中國的平均值

If I would split China, look here,

如果我把中國分開來看

Shanghai has already catched up.

上海已經趕上了

Shanghai is already there.

上海已經在上頭的那一端

And it's healthier than the United States.

其居民的壽命比美國人還長

But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest

但另一方面，貴州，中國最窮的一省

inland provinces of China, is there.

在中國的内陸，還在下面那裏

And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,

如果我把貴州分成城市及鄉下來看

the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.

貴州鄉下會再往下降

You see this enormous inequity in China,

你可以看到，在其快速的經濟發展下

in the midst of fast economic growth.

中國境内有極大的貧富不均

And if I would also look at India,

如果我們也看看印度

you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.

你可以看到那是另一種的貧富不均

The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.

在地理或巨觀地理上的差異並不大

Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,

“北方邦”，印度的最大邦

is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.

比起其它邦是比較窮也不健康的

Kerala is flying on top there,

克拉拉邦則領先其他邦

matching United States in health,

在國民健康上跟美國一樣

but not in economy.

在經濟上就差一截

And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,

馬哈拉施特拉邦，孟買的所在地

is forging forward.

正在往前進

Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,

現在在印度，最大的不平均是出現在同一個邦裏面

rather than between the states.

而不是在兩個邦之間

And that is not a bad thing, in itself.

這並不是件太壞的事

If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities

你如果在巨觀地理上有太大的差異

can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,

這在長期來説是難以應付的

than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center

但你如果在各個區域都有一個經濟成長中心

relatively close to where poor people are living.

離窮人們住的地方不遠的話，這就還好。

No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.

看這裡，另一個貧富不均例子在美國

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Oh, they broke my frame.

他們已經把我的框框撐破了

Washington, D.C. went out here.

華盛頓特區跑去那裏

My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this

我在Gapminder基金會工作的朋友要我把這給大家看

because there is a new leader in Washington

因爲在華盛頓有了一個新領導人

who is really concerned about the health system.

他很關心健保系統

And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.

我想我能夠了解，因爲在華盛頓

is so rich over there

居民收入已經高到那裏

but they are not as healthy as Kerala.

但是他們比印度克拉拉邦的居民還短命

It's quite interesting, isn't it?

這不是很有趣嗎？

(Applause)

（掌聲）

I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,

我幫克拉拉邦找到了一個商機

helping fix the health system in the United States.

那就是去整頓美國的健保系統

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.

現在我們來看全球的資料

And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,

這兩隻巨貓在這裡，一直往前進

you see that in between them

你可以看見，在他們之間

and ahead of them,

和在他們之前的

is the whole emerging economies of the world,

都是當今的已開發國家

which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."

是湯馬斯·佛里曼(Thomas Friedman)所稱的“平的世界”

You can see that in health and education,

你可以看見在很大一部分的世界人口中

a large part of the world population is putting forward,

教育和經濟都在進步

but in Africa, and other parts,

但在非洲和其他地方

as in rural Guizhou in China,

譬如中國貴州的鄉下

there is still people with low health and very low economy.

仍然有很多人生活貧困、壽命不長

We have an enormous disparity in the world.

我們的世界有很嚴重的貧富不均

But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.

但是大部分在中間的都進步很快

Now, back to my projections.

現在，回到我的預測路線圖

When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.

什麽時候可以趕上？我必須回來用傳統的圖

I will show income per person on this axis instead,

我把人均所得換到Y軸去

poor down here, rich up there.

收入低的在下面，高的在上面

And then time here, from 1858

時間是1858年

I start the world.

開始

And we shall see what will happen with these countries.

我們看這些國家將發生什麽事

You see, China under foreign domination

中國在外國政權的統治下

actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.

國民所得實際上是降低了，往印度的水準過去

Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.

同一時間英國和美國越來越有錢

And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.

在二次世界大戰後，美國比英國還有錢

But independence is coming here.

中國在這時獨立了

Growth is starting, economic reform.

經濟開始成長，經濟有了改革

Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF

成長變更快，再加上國際貨幣組織的挹注

you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

你可以看到2014年預測到達的地方

Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"

現在，問題是：什麽時候會追趕上？

Look at, look at the United States.

來看看美國

Can you see the bubble?

你們可以看到泡泡嗎？

The bubbles, not my bubbles,

這不是我的泡泡

but the financial bubbles.

而是金融的泡沫化

That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.

那是網路的泡沫化。這是雷曼兄弟的破產

You see it came down there.

你可以看到他往下掉

And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.

這看起來是北岩銀行被政府接管

So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.

看起來這些國家並不是一直往上走

They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.

他們的成長變得比較緩慢了

And people interested in growth

對經濟成長有興趣的人

are turning their eyes towards Asia.

都把目光轉到亞洲

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.

拿日本來做比較。這個是日本上來了

You see, Japan did it like that.

你看，日本是那樣往上走的

We add Japan to it.

我們把日本放進來

And there is no doubt that fast catch up

我們可以看到：快速的發展

can take place.

是有可能發生的

Can you see here what Japan did?

你看到日本了嗎？

Japan did it like this, until full catch up,

日本是這樣發展的，一直到完全趕上

and then they follow with the other high-income economies.

接下來還一直跟高所得國家齊頭並進

But the real projections for those ones,

但是如果真要預測這些國家的未來走勢

I would like to give it like this.

我傾向用這個

Can be worse, can be better.

有可能更好，也有可能更壞

It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.

要預測什麽總是難的，尤其是關於未來

Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.

可是，一個歷史學家告訴我，預測過去還要更困難

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I think I'm in a difficult position here.

我想我現在處在一個困難的階段

Inequalities in China and India

在中國和印度的不平等

I consider really the big obstacle

我認爲是很大的障礙

because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity

因爲要帶給整個社會成長和繁榮

is what will create a domestic market,

必須要創造一個内需市場

what will avoid social instability,

避免社會的不穩定

and which will make use of the entire capacity

並使用到整個社會人口的

of the population.

全部潛能

So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,

所以，中國和印度真正需要的是

and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

對醫療、教育、基礎建設、和電力設施的公共投資

You know the climate. We have great international experts

你們也知道氣候的問題。在印度有國際知名的專家告訴我們

within India telling us that the climate is changing,

全球氣候正在變化

and actions has to be taken,

我們必須採取行動

otherwise China and India would be the countries

要不然中國和印度將會是

most to suffer from climate change.

受全球暖化危害最深的國家

And I consider India and China the best partners in the world

我認爲中印兩國是世界上

in a good global climate policy.

在制定氣候政策上的最佳夥伴

But they ain't going to pay

但是他們不會為這些有錢國家

for what others, who have more money,

所造成的後果來買單

have largely created, and I can agree on that.

我可以同意這點

But what I'm really worried about is war.

但是我真正擔心的是戰爭

Will the former rich countries really accept

有錢的國家真的可以接受

a completely changed world economy,

一個完全改變的世界經濟嗎？

and a shift of power away from where it has been

他們可以接受過去50、100年、

the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,

150年間享有的權力

back to Asia?

被亞洲奪回嗎？

And will Asia be able to handle that

又，亞洲能夠處理

new position of being in charge

它的新地位

of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?

作為世界第一強權統理世界嗎？

So, always avoid war,

所以，一定要避免戰爭

because that always pushes human beings backward.

因爲戰爭總是使人類文明往後退

Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,

如果這些貧富不均、氣候、和戰爭問題能避免的話

get ready for a world in equity,

我們將可以準備迎接一個平等的世界

because this is what seems to be happening.

因爲這些是看起來即將要發生的事

And that vision that I got as a young student,

而這個1972年我還在做學生時洞察到的看法

1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,

印度人會比瑞典人還好

is just about to happen.

正在發生

And it will happen precisely

更精確地説

the year 2048

它會發生在2048年

in the later part of the summer, in July,

夏天的尾聲，在七月

more precisely, the 27th of July.

再更精確來説，七月二十七號

(Applause)

（掌聲）

The 27th of July, 2048

2048年7月27號

is my 100th birthday.

是我100歲的生日

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I expect to speak

我希望可以再來演講

in the first session of the 39th TED India.

在39屆印度TED的研討會

Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.

記得要及早定位。謝謝大家

(Applause)

（掌聲）