Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

306,794 views ・ 2011-12-21

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Translator: Adrián Levices Casal Reviewer: Raquel Uzal
00:15
Do you remember the story
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Lembrades a historia
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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de Ulises e as Sereas
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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que nos contaban no colexio?
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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Este heroe, Ulises, estaba de camiño de volta á casa
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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despois da Guerra de Troia.
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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E cando estaba na cuberta do seu barco,
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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dirixiuse ao seu primeiro oficial
00:30
and he's saying,
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e díxolle:
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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"Mañá navegaremos ao lado desas rochas,
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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onde habitan fermosas mulleres
00:37
called Sirens.
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chamadas Sereas.
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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E estas mulleres cantan unha canción deleitosa,
00:42
a song so alluring
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unha canción tan fascinante
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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que tódolos navegantes que a escoitan
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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coliden contra as rochas e morren".
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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Visto o panorama, un agardaría
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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que elixisen unha ruta alternativa e así evitar as Sereas,
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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mais no canto diso Ulises dixo:
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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"Quero escoitar esa canción.
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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Así que o que vou facer
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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é verter cera nos teus oídos
01:02
of you and all the men --
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e nos do resto da tripulación.
01:04
stay with me --
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Quedade con isto,
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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así non poderedes oír a canción,
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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e logo atarédesme ao mastro
01:11
so that I can listen
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para que eu poida escoitala
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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e así poderemos seguir navegando sen máis".
01:15
So this is a captain
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Isto é un capitán
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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poñendo en perigo a vida das persoas do barco
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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para poder escoitar unha canción.
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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E gustaríame pensar que de ser así,
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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farían algún ensaio.
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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Ulises diría: "Veña, imos facer unha proba.
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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Atádesme ao mastro e vouvos suplicar e rogar.
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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E non importa o que diga, non podedes desatarme do mastro.
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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Ben, atádeme logo".
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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E o primeiro oficial colle unha corda
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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e ata a Ulises ao mastro cun bo nó.
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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Ulises fai a súa mellor interpretación
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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e di: "Desatádeme. Desatádeme.
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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Quero escoitar esa canción. Desatádeme".
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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E o primeiro oficial prudentemente resístese
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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e non desata a Ulises.
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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E logo Ulises di: "Vexo que o pillastes.
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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Ben, desatádeme e vaiamos cear algo".
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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E o primeiro oficial dubida.
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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Pensa: "É parte do ensaio,
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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ou debería de facerlle caso?"
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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E o oficial pensa:
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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"Supoño que o ensaio terá que rematar nalgún momento".
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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Así que desata a Ulises e este tolea.
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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Dille: "Parvo, inútil.
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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Se fas iso mañá hei morrer, ti has morrer
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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e todos neste barco han morrer.
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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Non me desates pase o que pase".
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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E tira ao oficial ao chan.
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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Isto mesmo repítese durante a noite:
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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ensaiar, atar ao mastro,
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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enganar para librarse,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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golpear ao pobre primeiro oficial sen piedade.
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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E todo o mundo ri.
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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O de atarse ao mastro
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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é quizais o exemplo máis antigo
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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do que os psicólogos chaman un mecanismo de compromiso.
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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Un mecanismo de compromiso é unha decisión que fas
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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coa cabeza fría para comprometerte
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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e así non facer nada que poidas lamentar
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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cando teñas a cabeza quente.
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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Porque hai dúas cabezas dentro de cada un
02:56
when you think about it.
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se o pensades.
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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Os expertos evocan a miúdo esta metáfora dos dous eus
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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no tocante a cuestións de tentación.
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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En primeiro lugar está o eu presente.
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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Este é coma Ulises cando escoita a canción.
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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O único que quere é estar en primeira fila.
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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Só pensa no aquí, no agora e a gratificación inmediata.
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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Pero logo está o outro eu, o eu futuro.
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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Este é o Ulises de maior
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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que só quere asentarse nunha vila soleada
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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coa súa muller Penélope
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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nas aforas de Ítaca-- a outra Ítaca.
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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Entón, por que precisamos mecanismos de compromiso?
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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Pois ben, resistir a tentación é difícil,
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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como dixo o economista inglés
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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do século XIX Nassau William senior:
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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"Absterse do gozo que está no noso poder,
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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ou procurar resultados distantes antes cos inmediatos,
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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son uns dos esforzos máis aflitivos
03:50
of the human will."
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do ser humano".
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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Se te estabeleces obxectivos e es coma o resto da xente,
03:55
you probably realize
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seguramente haste decatar
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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de que non é que os teus obxectivos sexan fisicamente imposíbeis
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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e por iso non os consegues,
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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o que pasa é que careces da autodisciplina para realizalos.
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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Fisicamente é posíbel perder peso.
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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Fisicamente é posíbel facer máis exercicio.
04:09
But resisting temptation
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Pero resistir a tentación
04:11
is hard.
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é difícil.
04:13
The other reason
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A outra razón
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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pola que é difícil resistir a tentación
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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é porque se trata dunha batalla desigual
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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entre o eu presente e o eu futuro.
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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É dicir, afrontémolo, o eu presente está presente.
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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É o que ten o control. É o que manda agora.
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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Está nos nosos fortes e heroicos brazos
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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que levan as rosquiñas á nosa boca.
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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E o eu futuro nin sequera está próximo.
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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Está moi lonxe no futuro. É feble.
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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Nin sequera ten un avogado presente.
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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Non hai ninguén que defenda o eu futuro.
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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E así o presente pode esnaquizar
04:45
all over its dreams.
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os seus soños.
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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Esta é a batalla entre os dous eus,
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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e precisamos mecanismos de compromiso
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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para nivelar as forzas.
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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En verdade son un fan dos mecanismos de compromiso.
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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Atarse ao mastro é o máis vello, pero existen outros
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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como poñer baixo chave unha tarxeta de crédito
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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ou non mercar comida lixo para non comela
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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ou desconectar a túa conexión a Internet
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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para non usar o ordenador.
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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Creei mecanismos de compromiso de meu
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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moito antes de saber o que eran.
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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Cando era un famélico estudante de post-doutoramento
05:19
at Columbia University,
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na Universidade de Columbia,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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estaba nunha fase da miña carreira de "publica ou morre".
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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Tiña que escribir cinco páxinas ao día
05:26
towards papers
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de artigos académicos
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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ou perder cinco dólares.
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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E cando intentas executar estes mecanismos de compromiso,
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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decátaste de que o demo está nos detalles.
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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Porque non é doado perder cinco dólares.
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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É dicir, non podes queimalos; é ilegal.
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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E pensei, ben, podo doalos á caridade
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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ou darllos á miña muller ou algo así.
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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Pero logo pensei, vaites, estoume enviando mensaxes mesturadas.
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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Porque non escribir está mal, pero doalos está ben.
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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Así que podería xustificar o non escribir
05:53
by giving a gift.
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facendo un agasallo.
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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E logo deille voltas e pensei,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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ben podo darlle o agasallo aos neo-Nazis.
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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Pero iso sería máis malo que o bo que é escribir,
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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e non había funcionar.
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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Así que finalmente decidín
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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que había deixalos metidos nun sobre no metro.
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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Ás veces encontraríaos alguén bo,
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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e outras veces alguén mao.
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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De media, é un intercambio inútil de cartos
06:16
that I would regret.
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que había lamentar.
06:18
(Laughter)
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(Gargalladas)
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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Así é cos mecanismos de compromiso.
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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Pero a pesar da miña simpatía cara eles,
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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hai dúas preocupacións perturbadoras
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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que sempre tiven con respecto aos mecanismos de compromiso,
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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e seguramente vós as sentides se tamén os empregades.
06:34
So the first is,
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A primeira é,
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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que cando adoptas un destes mecanismos,
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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coma este contrato polo que ou escribes tódolos días ou pagas,
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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é só un recordatorio constante
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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de que non tes autocontrol.
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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Diste a ti mesmo: "Sen ti, mecanismo de compromiso,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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non son ren, non teño autodisciplina".
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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E cando esteas nunha situación
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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na que non teñas mecanismo de compromiso,
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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coma: "Deus, este tío ofréceme unha rosquiña,
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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e non teño mecanismo de defensa...
06:59
you just eat it.
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simplemente cómela.
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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Non me gusta como che sacan o poder.
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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Penso que a autodisciplina é coma un músculo.
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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Canto máis a exercitas máis forte se fai.
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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O outro problema cos mecanismos de compromiso
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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é que sempre podes escapar deles.
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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Dis: "Claro, hoxe non podo escribir
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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porque vou dar unha charla en TED e teño cinco entrevistas
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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e logo vou a unha festa e voume emborrachar.
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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E non hai forma de que isto funcione".
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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Polo que si, somos coma Ulises e o seu primeiro oficial
07:28
in one person.
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nunha mesma persoa.
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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Preséntaste, átaste
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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logo intentas fuxir,
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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e logo dáste unha malleira.
07:37
So I've been working
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Así que estiven traballando
07:39
for about a decade now
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durante case unha década
07:41
on finding other ways
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para achar outros camiños
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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para mudar a relación da xente co seu eu futuro
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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sen usar os mecanismos de compromiso.
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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Estou particularmente interesado na relación
07:50
to the future financial self.
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co eu futuro financeiro.
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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Este é un tema oportuno.
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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Estou falando do tema do aforro.
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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O aforro é un problema dos dous eus.
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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O eu presente non quere aforrar nada.
08:03
It wants to consume.
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Quere consumir.
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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Mentres que o eu futuro quere que o presente aforre.
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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Este é un problema oportuno.
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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Observamos os índices de aforro
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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que foron diminuíndo dende os anos cincuenta.
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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Ao mesmo tempo, o Índice de Risco da Xubilación,
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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a posibilidade de non ser quen de cubrir as necesidades na xubilación,
08:22
has been increasing.
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foi en aumento.
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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E agora estamos na situación
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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na que de cada tres nacementos,
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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o Instituto Global McKinsey predí
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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que dous non van ser quen de cubrir as súas necesidades pre-xubilatorias
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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cando estean xubilados.
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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Entón, que podemos facer?
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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Hai un filósofo, Derek Parfit,
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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que serviu de inspiración para os meus coautores e para min.
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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Dixo que: "Descoidamos o noso futuro
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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por algún tipo de crenza errónea ou imaxinación".
08:52
That is to say,
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É dicir,
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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por algún motivo non pensamos que nos faremos vellos,
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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ou non somos quen de imaxinar
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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que nos imos facer vellos algún día.
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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Por unha parte, soa ridículo.
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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Naturalmente, sabemos que imos ir a vellos.
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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Pero hai cousas que cremos e non cremos ao mesmo tempo, non si?
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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Así que os meus coautores e eu empregamos as computadores,
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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a mellor ferramenta do noso tempo,
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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para axudar á imaxinación da xente,
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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axudándolles a imaxinar como sería
09:18
to go into the future.
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chegar ao futuro.
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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Vouvos mostrar algunha destas ferramentas.
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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A primeira chámase o construtor de distribución.
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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Amósalle á xente como vai ser o futuro
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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mostrándolles un cento de resultados probables
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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que se poden obter no futuro.
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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Cada resultado preséntao un destes indicadores,
09:36
and each sits on a row
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e cada un sitúase nunha fila
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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que representa o nivel de riqueza e xubilación.
09:40
Being up at the top
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Se está na cima
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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quere dicir que estás gozando dunha grande renta na xubilación.
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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Se está abaixo
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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quere dicir que o estás pasando mal para chegar a fin de mes.
09:48
When you make an investment,
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Cando fas un investimento,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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o que en realidade dis é: "Acepto
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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que calquera destas 100 cousas
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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me poidan pasar e determinen a miña riqueza".
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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Podes intentar cambiar os teus resultados.
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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Podes intentar manipular o teu destino, como fai esta persoa,
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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pero facelo vaiche custar algo.
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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Quere dicir que tes que aforrar máis hoxe.
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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Unha vez que achas un investimento co que estás contento,
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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o que a xente fai é clicar en "feito"
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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e os indicadores comezan a desaparecer,
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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a modo, un por un.
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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Simula como sería investir en algo
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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e ver concluír ese investimento.
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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Ao final, só quedará un indicador
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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que ha determinar a nosa riqueza ao xubilarnos.
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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Si, esta persoa xubilouse
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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co 150% da súa renda de traballador na xubilación.
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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Fan máis cartos cando están xubilados
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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có que facían mentres traballaban.
10:37
If you're like most people,
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Se sodes como a maioría da xente,
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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en busca do que vos dea unha pequena sensación de ledicia,
10:43
just to think about making
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pensade en facer
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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o 50% máis de cartos na xubilación ca antes.
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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Porén, se acabastes na parte máis baixa,
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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pode que vos dea unha lixeira sensación
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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de terror e/ou náusea,
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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ao pensar en como saír adiante na xubilación.
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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Empregando esta ferramenta unha e outra vez
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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e simulando resultado tras resultado,
11:03
people can understand
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a xente pode entender
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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que os investimentos e aforros que fagan hoxe
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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han determinar o seu benestar no futuro.
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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Agora a xente déixase levar polas emocións,
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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pero xente distinta acha distintas cousas que a motiven.
11:16
This is a simulation
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Esta é unha simulación
11:19
that uses graphics,
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que emprega gráficos,
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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pero outra xente motívase co que os cartos poden mercar,
11:23
not just numbers.
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non só con números.
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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Fixen un construtor de distribución
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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onde en lugar de amosar resultados numéricos,
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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amósalle á xente os resultados que lle levarán
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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a ter un apartamento
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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se se xubila con 3000, 2500,
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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2000 dólares por mes e así sucesivamente.
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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Segundo baixas o nivel do apartamento,
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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ves como vai de peor en peor.
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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Algúns parécense a apartamentos nos que vivín cando era estudante.
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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E cando chegas ao final,
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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enfróntaste coa infeliz realidade
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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de que se non aforraches para a túa xubilación,
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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non serás quen de ter ningún tipo de casa.
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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Estas son fotografías de apartamentos reais
12:03
renting for that amount
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alugados por unha cantidade
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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anunciada en Internet.
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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O último que vos hei amosar,
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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a última máquina do tempo comportamental,
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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é algo que creei xunto con Hal Hershfield,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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que coñecín grazas ao meu coautor dun proxecto anterior,
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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Bill Sharpe.
12:19
And what it is
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Isto é
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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unha exploración dentro da realidade virtual.
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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O que facemos é tomar fotos da xente,
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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neste caso, estudantes,
12:28
and we use software to age them
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e usamos un programa para envellecelos
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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e amosarlles como han ser
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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cando teñan 60, 70, 80 anos.
12:35
And we try to test
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E intentamos comprobar
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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se en realidade estimular a túa imaxinación
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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cando ollas a túa cara no futuro
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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pode mudar o teu comportamento á hora de investir.
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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Este é un dos nosos experimentos.
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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Vemos a face dun mozo á esquerda.
12:50
He's given a control
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Leva un control
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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que lle permite regular o seu índice de aforros.
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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Cando facemos baixar os seus aforros,
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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quere dicir que non está aforrando nada,
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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cando está á esquerda de todo.
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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Podedes ver a súa renda anual.
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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Esta é a porcentaxe de soldo que leva hoxe á casa,
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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é bastante alta, 91 por cento,
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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pero a súa renda para a xubilación é bastante baixa.
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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Vaise xubilar co 44%
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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do que gañaba mentres traballaba.
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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Se aforra a cantidade máxima legal
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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os seus ingresos na xubilación medran,
13:19
but he's unhappy
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pero el é infeliz
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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porque ten menos cartos que gastar hoxe.
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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Outras condicións amósanlle á xente o eu futuro.
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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E dende o punto de vista do eu futuro, todo está ao revés.
13:31
If you save very little,
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Se aforras pouco
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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o eu futuro é infeliz
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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se ten que vivir co 44% dos ingresos.
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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Mentres que se o presente aforra moito,
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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o eu futuro está encantado,
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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cando os ingresos están preto do 100%.
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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Para transmitir isto a unha audiencia máis ampla,
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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estiven traballando con Hal e Allianz
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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coa fin de crear o que chamamos a máquina do tempo comportamental
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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onde non só te ves no futuro,
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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se non que tamén ves anticipadamente as reaccións emocionais
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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para diferentes niveis de riqueza na xubilación.
14:04
So for instance,
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Así que por exemplo,
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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aquí hai alguén que emprega a ferramenta.
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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Observade as expresións faciais
14:10
as they move the slider.
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cando movemos a frecha.
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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O rostro novo ponse cada vez máis feliz cando non aforra nada.
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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O rostro ancián tórnase miserable.
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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E pouco a pouco subimos a frecha a un nivel de aforros medio.
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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E logo a un nivel alto.
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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O rostro novo tórnase infeliz.
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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O rostro ancián pola contra está máis satisfeito
14:24
with the decision.
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coa decisión.
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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Imos ver se isto afecta ao que fai a xente.
14:29
And what's nice about it
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O mellor disto
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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é que non condiciona ás persoas,
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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xa que cando un rostro sorrí
14:36
the other face frowns.
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o outro torce o fociño.
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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Non vos di onde poñer a frecha,
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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só vos lembra que estades
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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conectados e legalmente atados
14:45
this future self.
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a este eu futuro.
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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As vosas decisións hoxe han determinar o voso benestar.
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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E iso é algo doado de esquecer.
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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O uso desta realidade virtual
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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non só é bo para que a xente se vexa cando sexa maior.
14:58
There are programs you can get
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Hai programas que podedes conseguir
15:00
to see how people might look
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para ver como a xente se vai ver
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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se fuman, se lles dá moito o sol,
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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se gañan peso e demais.
15:07
And what's good is,
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E o bo é,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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que ó contrario dos experimentos que Hal e eu levamos a cabo xunto con Russ Smith,
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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non tedes que programalos vós
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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para chegar a ver a realidade virtual.
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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Hai aplicacións que podedes conseguir en smartphones por uns poucos dólares
15:20
that do the same thing.
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que fan o mesmo.
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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Esta é unha fotografía de Hal, o meu coautor.
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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Recoñecédelo polas tomas anteriores.
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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E só por diversión, pasamos esta foto
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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a través dunha aplicación para perder pelo, envellecer e gañar peso
15:33
to see how he would look.
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para ver que aspecto tería.
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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Hal está aquí, así que acho que lle debo a el e a vós
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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esquecer a última imaxe.
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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E vouno deixar aquí.
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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No nome de Hal e meu,
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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deséxoves o mellor para os seus eus presentes e futuros.
15:48
Thank you.
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Grazas
15:50
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
About this website

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