Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

Prevoditelj: Danijela Rako Recezent: Katarina Smetko

Do you remember the story

Sjećate li se priče

of Odysseus and the Sirens

o Odiseju i sirenama

from high school or junior high school?

iz osnovne ili srednje škole?

There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home

Junak Odisej vraćao se kući

after the Trojan War.

nakon Trojanskog rata.

And he's standing on the deck of his ship,

Stoji na palubi svog broda,

he's talking to his first mate,

razgovara sa svojim prvim časnikom

and he's saying,

i kaže:

"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,

"Sutra ćemo ploviti pokraj onih stijena,

and on those rocks sit some beautiful women

a na tim stijenama sjede predivne žene

called Sirens.

koje se zovu Sirene.

And these women sing an enchanting song,

Te žene pjevaju čarobnu pjesmu,

a song so alluring

pjesmu tako zavodljivu

that all sailors who hear it

da se svi mornari koji je čuju

crash into the rocks and die."

razbiju o stijene i poginu."

Now you would expect, given that,

Imajući to na umu, očekivali biste

that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,

da će odabrati alternativni put okolo Sirena,

but instead Odysseus says,

no umjesto toga Odisej kaže:

"I want to hear that song.

"Želim čuti tu pjesmu.

And so what I'm going to do

Ono što ću učiniti

is I'm going to pour wax in the ears

jest da ću uliti vosak u uši

of you and all the men --

tebi i cijeloj posadi --

stay with me --

pratite me --

so that you can't hear the song,

kako vi ne biste mogli čuti pjesmu,

and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast

a onda ćete me zavezati za jarbol

so that I can listen

kako bih ja mogao slušati,

and we can all sail by unaffected."

te svi zajedno možemo otploviti bez štete."

So this is a captain

Dakle, to je kapetan

putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk

koji dovodi u opasnost život svake osobe na brodu

so that he can hear a song.

kako bi mogao čuti neku pjesmu.

And I'd like to think if this was the case,

Volio bih misliti, ako je to bio slučaj,

they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.

da bi vjerojatno nekoliko puta to isprobali.

Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.

Odisej bi rekao: "U redu, hajdemo probati.

You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.

Vi me zavežite za jarbol, a ja ću moliti i preklinjati.

And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.

Što god rekao, vi me ne smijete odvezati s jarbola.

All right, so tie me to the mast."

U redu, zavežite me za jarbol."

And the first mate takes a rope

Prvi časnik uzme uže

and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.

te dobro zaveže Odiseja za jarbol.

And Odysseus does his best job playacting

Odisej se najbolje potrudi odglumiti

and says, "Untie me. Untie me.

i kaže: "Odvežite me. Odvežite me.

I want to hear that song. Untie me."

Želim čuti tu pjesmu. Odvežite me."

And the first mate wisely resists

Prvi časnik se mudro odupire

and doesn't untie Odysseus.

i ne odvezuje Odiseja.

And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.

Potom Odisej kaže: "Vidim da shvaćaš.

All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."

Dobro, sad me odveži pa ćemo večerati."

And the first mate hesitates.

Prvi časnik oklijeva.

He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,

Misli si: "Je li ovo još uvijek proba

or should I untie him?"

ili bih ga trebao odvezati?"

And the first mate thinks,

Prvi časnik pomisli:

"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."

"Valjda u jednom trenu proba mora završiti."

So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.

Pa odveže Odiseja, a Odisej poludi.

He's like, "You idiot. You moron.

Kaže: "Idiote. Glupane.

If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,

Ako to sutra učiniš, ja sam mrtav, ti si mrtav,

every single one of the men will be dead.

cijela će posada biti mrtva.

Now just don't untie me no matter what."

Nemoj me odvezati što god da se dogodi."

He throws the first mate to the ground.

Gurne prvog časnika na pod.

This repeats itself through the night --

Ovo se ponavljalo tijekom cijele noći --

rehearsal, tying to the mast,

proba, vezivanje za jarbol,

conning his way out of it,

izvlačenje na prevaru,

beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.

nemilosrdno prebijanje jadnog prvog časnika.

Hilarity ensues.

Svi se smiju.

Tying yourself to a mast

Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol

is perhaps the oldest written example

vjerojatno je najstariji pisani primjer

of what psychologists call a commitment device.

onoga što psiholozi nazivaju dobrovoljno odricanje.

A commitment device is a decision that you make

Dobrovoljno je odricanje odluka koju donosite

with a cool head to bind yourself

hladne glave kako biste se natjerali

so that you don't do something regrettable

da usijane glave ne učinite

when you have a hot head.

nešto što biste mogli požaliti.

Because there's two heads inside one person

Zato što u jednoj osobi postoje dvije glave,

when you think about it.

kad malo razmislite o tome.

Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves

Znanstvenici već dugo spominju tu metaforu o dva 'ja'

when it comes to questions of temptation.

kad se radi o iskušenju.

There is first, the present self.

Postoji prvo, sadašnje 'ja'.

This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.

Kao Odisej kad sluša pjesmu.

He just wants to get to the front row.

Jedino što želi jest biti u prvom redu.

He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.

Misli samo na sadašnjost i trenutno zadovoljstvo.

But then there's this other self, the future self.

No, postoji i to drugo 'ja', buduće 'ja'.

This is Odysseus as an old man

To je Odisej kao star čovjek

who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa

koji se samo želi povući u osunčanu vilu

with his wife Penelope

sa svojom ženom Penelopom

outside of Ithaca -- the other one.

izvan Itake -- one druge.

So why do we need commitment devices?

Zašto trebamo alate za dobrovoljno odricanje?

Well resisting temptation is hard,

Teško je oduprijeti se iskušenju,

as the 19th century English economist

kao što kaže Nassau William Stariji,

Nassau William Senior said,

engleski ekonomist iz 19. st.:

"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,

"Suzdržati se od užitka koji je u našoj moći

or to seek distant rather than immediate results,

ili tražiti daleke radije nego brze rezultate,

are among the most painful exertions

spada u najbolnije napore

of the human will."

ljudske volje."

If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,

Ako si postavite ciljeve i ako ste kao ostali ljudi,

you probably realize

vjerojatno ćete shvatiti

it's not that your goals are physically impossible

da ono što vas sprečava da ostvarite te ciljeve

that's keeping you from achieving them,

nije činjenica da su fizički nemogući,

it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.

već nedostatak samodiscipline da ne odustanete.

It's physically possible to lose weight.

Fizički je moguće smršaviti.

It's physically possible to exercise more.

Fizički je moguće više vježbati.

But resisting temptation

No, oduprijeti se iskušenju

is hard.

- to je teško.

The other reason

Drugi razlog zašto je teško

that it's difficult to resist temptation

oduprijeti se iskušenju jest

is because it's an unequal battle

zato što je to neravnopravna borba

between the present self and the future self.

između sadašnjeg i budućeg 'ja'.

I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.

Budimo iskreni, sadašnje 'ja' je sadašnje.

It's in control. It's in power right now.

Ono ima kontrolu. Trenutno ono ima moć.

It has these strong, heroic arms

Ima te snažne, junačke ruke

that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.

koje mogu staviti krafne u vaša usta.

And the future self is not even around.

A buduće 'ja' nalazi se negdje daleko.

It's off in the future. It's weak.

Ono je u budućnosti. Slabo je.

It doesn't even have a lawyer present.

Čak mu ni odvjetnik nije prisutan.

There's nobody to stick up for the future self.

Nema nikoga tko bi podupro buduće 'ja'.

And so the present self can trounce

I tako sadašnje 'ja' može potući

all over its dreams.

sve njegove snove.

So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,

Dakle, vodi se ta bitka između dva 'ja'

and we need commitment devices

i treba nam to dobrovoljno odricanje

to level the playing field between the two.

kako bi borba između dva 'ja' bila ravnopravna.

Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.

Ja zapravo zaista volim dobrovoljno odricanje.

Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones

Vezivanje samog sebe za jarbol najstarije je, no ima i drugih,

such as locking a credit card away with a key

kao što su zaključavanje kreditne kartice

or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it

ili nedonošenje brze hrane u kuću kako je ne biste pojeli

or unplugging your Internet connection

ili isključivanje internet veze

so you can use your computer.

kako biste mogli korisiti kompjuter.

I was creating commitment devices of my own

Ja sam stvarao sam svoje

long before I knew what they were.

mnogo prije nego sam znao što su.

So when I was a starving post-doc

Dok sam bio gladan postdoktorant

at Columbia University,

na sveučilištu Columbia,

I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.

bio sam duboko u fazi 'objavi ili propadni' svoje karijere.

I had to write five pages a day

Morao sam napisati pet stranica dnevno

towards papers

za svoje radove

or I would have to give up five dollars.

ili bih se morao odreći pet dolara.

And when you try to execute these commitment devices,

Kad pokušate koristiti te alate za dobrovoljno odricanje,

you realize the devil is really in the details.

shvatite da je vrag zapravo u detaljima.

Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.

Jer nije tako lako odreći se pet dolara.

I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.

Ne možete ih zapaliti; to je protuzakonito.

And I thought, well I could give it to a charity

Razmišljao sam da ih dam u dobrotvorne svrhe

or give it to my wife or something like that.

ili supruzi ili nešto takvo.

But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.

Ali onda sam pomislio kako si šaljem pomiješane poruke.

Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.

Zato što je nepisanje loše, ali je davanje u dobrotvorne svrhe dobro.

So then I would kind of justify not writing

Na neki bih način opravdao nepisanje

by giving a gift.

davanjem dara.

And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,

Zatim sam to preokrenuo i pomislio,

well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.

pa mogao bih novac dati i neonacistima.

But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,

No, tada sam shvatio da je to lošije nego što je pisanje dobro,

and so that wouldn't work.

tako da to ne bi funkcioniralo.

So ultimately, I just decided

Na kraju sam samo odlučio

I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.

da ću ih ostaviti u kuverti u podzemnoj željeznici.

Sometimes a good person would find it,

Ponekad će ih pronaći dobra osoba,

sometimes a bad person would find it.

a ponekad loša.

On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money

U prosjeku je to bila samo besmislena razmjena novca

that I would regret.

koju ću požaliti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Such it is with commitment devices.

Tako je i s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje.

But despite my like for them,

No, unatoč tome što mi se sviđaju,

there's two nagging concerns

postoje dvije naporne brige

that I've always had about commitment devices,

koje sam uvijek imao u vezi alata za dobrovoljno odricanje

and you might feel this if you use them yourself.

i mogli biste ih imati ako ih koristite.

So the first is,

Dakle, prvo je što

when you've got one of these devices going,

kad korisitite jedan od tih alata,

such as this contract to write everyday or pay,

kao što je ugovor za svakodnevno pisanje ili plaćanje,

it's just a constant reminder

to je stalni podsjetnik

that you have no self-control.

da nemate samokontrolu.

You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,

Samo si govorite: "Bez tebe,

I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."

ja sam ništa. Nemam samodiscipline."

And then when you're ever in a situation

I onda, ako ste ikad u situaciji

where you don't have a commitment device in place --

da nemate spreman alat za dobrovoljno odricanje --

like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,

recimo: "O Bože, ova mi osoba nudi krafnu,

and I have no defense mechanism," --

a ja nemam obrambeni mehanizam." --

you just eat it.

samo ju pojedete.

So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.

Ne sviđa mi se kako vam oduzimaju moć.

I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.

Mislim da je samodisciplina nešto kao mišić.

The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.

Što ga više vježbate, to će biti jači.

The other problem with commitment devices

Drugi problem s alatima za dobrovoljno odricanje

is that you can always weasel your way out of them.

jest što se uvijek možete izvući iz njih.

You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,

Kažete: "Naravno da ne mogu danas pisati

because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,

zato što ću održati TEDTalk i imam pet intervjua za medije,

and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.

a onda idem na koktel zabavu i bit ću pijan nakon toga.

And so there's no way that this is going to work."

Nema šanse da će to funkcionirati."

So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate

Dakle, vi ste kao Odisej i prvi časnik

in one person.

u jednoj osobi.

You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,

Predajete se, obvezujete se

and you're weaseling your way out of it,

i izvlačite se iz toga,

and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.

a onda se kasnije grizete.

So I've been working

Radim već

for about a decade now

desetak godina

on finding other ways

na pronalasku drugih načina

to change people's relationship to the future self

za promjenu odnosa ljudi prema budućem 'ja'

without using commitment devices.

bez korištenja alata za dobrovoljno odricanje.

In particular, I'm interested in the relationship

Posebno me zanima odnos

to the future financial self.

prema budućem financijskom 'ja'.

And this is a timely issue.

To je goruće pitanje.

I'm talking about the topic of saving.

Govorim o štednji.

Now saving is a classic two selves problem.

Znači, štednja je klasični problem dvostrukog 'ja'.

The present self does not want to save at all.

Sadašnje 'ja' uopće ne želi štedjeti.

It wants to consume.

Ono želi trošiti.

Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.

Dok buduće 'ja' želi da sadašnje 'ja' štedi.

So this is a timely problem.

Dakle, to je gorući problem.

We look at the savings rate

Gledamo stope štednje,

and it has been declining since the 1950s.

koje su u opadanju od 1950-ih.

At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,

U isto vrijeme, indeks rizika umirovljenja,

the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,

mogućnost da nećete moći zadovoljiti svoje potrebe u mirovini,

has been increasing.

u porastu je.

And we're at a situation now

Trenutno smo u situaciji

where for every three baby boomers,

gdje od svake tri osobe rođene sredinom 20. st.

the McKinsey Global Institute predicts

McKinsey Global Institute predviđa

that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs

da dvije neće uspjeti zadovoljiti svoje predmirovinske potrebe

while they're in retirement.

dok su u mirovini.

So what can we do about this?

Što možemo poduzeti oko toga?

There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,

Postoji filozof Derek Parfit,

who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.

koji je rekao nešto što je inspiriralo moje suautore i mene.

He said that, "We might neglect our future selves

Rekao je: "Možda zanemarujemo svoje buduće 'ja'

because of some failure of belief or imagination."

zbog nekog promašenog vjerovanja ili zamišljanja."

That is to say,

Time želi reći

we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,

da možda nekako ne vjerujemo da ćemo ostarjeti

or we might not be able to imagine

ili da možda ne možemo zamisliti

that we're going to get old some day.

da ćemo jednog dana biti stari.

On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.

U jednu ruku, to zvuči smiješno.

Of course, we know that we're going to get old.

Naravno da znamo da ćemo ostarjeti.

But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?

No, postoje li stvari u koje vjerujemo i ne vjerujemo u isto vrijeme?

So my coauthors and I have used computers,

Moji suautori i ja koristimo kompjutere,

the greatest tool of our time,

najveći alat našeg vremena,

to assist people's imagination

kako bismo pomogli ljudskoj mašti

and help them imagine what it might be like

te ih poduprijeli da zamisle kako bi bilo

to go into the future.

otići u budućnost.

And I'll show you some of these tools right here.

Sada ću vam pokazati neke od tih alata.

The first is called the distribution builder.

Prvi je takozvani alat za distribuciju.

It shows people what the future might be like

Pokazuje ljudima kakva bi budućnost mogla biti

by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes

pokazujući im stotine jednako vjerojatnih rezultata

that might be obtained in the future.

koji bi mogli nastati u budućnosti.

Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,

Svaki je rezultat prikazan jednom od ovih oznaka,

and each sits on a row

te se svaka nalazi u redu

that represents a level of wealth and retirement.

koji predstavlja razinu bogatstva i mirovine.

Being up at the top

Mjesto na vrhu

means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.

znači da ćete imati visoke prihode u mirovini.

Being down at the bottom

Mjesto na dnu

means that you're struggling to make ends meet.

znači da ćete teško spajati kraj s krajem.

When you make an investment,

Kad ulažete,

what you're really saying is, "I accept

ono što zaista govorite jest: "Prihvaćam

that any one of these 100 things

da bi mi se bilo koja od ovih sto stvari

could happen to me and determine my wealth."

mogla dogoditi i time odrediti moje bogatstvo."

Now you can try to move your outcomes around.

Možete pokušati razmjestiti svoje rezultate.

You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,

Možete pokušati manipulirati svojom sudbinom, poput ove osobe,

but it costs you something to do it.

ali to će vas koštati.

It means that you have to save more today.

To znači da danas morate više štedjeti.

Once you find an investment that you're happy with,

Jednom kad pronađete ulaganje s kojim ste zadovoljni,

what people do is they click "done"

ljudi kliknu na "gotovo"

and the markers begin to disappear,

i oznake počinju nestajati,

slowly, one by one.

polako, jedna po jedna.

It simulates what it is like to invest in something

To je simulacija kako je to ulagati u nešto

and to watch that investment pan out.

i gledati kako to ulaganje donosi uspjeh.

At the end, there will only be one marker left standing

Na kraju će ostati samo jedna oznaka

and it will determine our wealth in retirement.

i ona će odrediti vaše bogatstvo u mirovini.

Yes, this person retired

Da, ova je osoba otišla u mirovinu

at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.

sa 150 posto svojeg radnog prihoda.

They're making more money while retired

Više zarađuju u mirovini

than they were making while they were working.

nego što su zarađivali dok su radili.

If you're like most people,

Ako ste kao većina ljudi,

just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --

samo gledanje ovoga daje vam mali osjećaj sreće i zadovoljstva --

just to think about making

sama pomisao na zarađivanje

50 percent more money in retirement than before.

50 posto više novca u mirovini nego prije.

However, had you ended up on the very bottom,

No, da ste završili na samom dnu,

it might have given you a slight sense

to bi vam moglo dati blagi osjećaj

of dread and/or nausea

straha i/ili muke,

thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.

dok razmišljate o borbi za preživljavanje u mirovini.

By using this tool over and over

Stalnim korišenjem ovog alata

and simulating outcome after outcome,

i simuliranjem posljedice za posljedicom

people can understand

ljudi mogu razumijeti

that the investments and savings that they undertake today

da ulaganja i štednja koje poduzmu danas

determine their well-being in the future.

određuju njihovo blagostanje u budućnosti.

Now people are motivated through emotions,

Ljudi se motiviraju putem emocija,

but different people find different things motivating.

no različite ljude motiviraju različte stvari.

This is a simulation

Ovo je simulacija

that uses graphics,

koja koristi grafički prikaz,

but other people find motivating what money can buy,

no druge ljude motivira ono što se može kupiti novcem,

not just numbers.

a ne samo brojevi.

So here I made a distribution builder

Stoga sam napravio alat za distribuciju

where instead of showing numerical outcomes,

gdje umjesto prikazivanja brojčanih rezultata,

I show people what those outcomes will get you,

pokazujem ljudima kamo će vas ti rezultati odvesti,

in particular apartments that you can afford

u određen stan koji si možete priuštiti

if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,

ako ste vam je mirovina 3000, 2500,

2,000 dollars per month and so on.

2000 dolara mjesečno i tako dalje.

As you move down the ladder of apartments,

Kako se spuštate po ljestvici stanova,

you see that they get worse and worse.

vidite da postaju gori i gori.

Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.

Neki od njih izgledaju kao mjesta gdje sam živio tijekom diplomskog studija.

And as you get to the very bottom,

Kako dolazite do samog dna,

you're faced with the unfortunate reality

suočeni ste s nesretnom realnošću

that if you don't save anything for retirement,

da ako ništa ne štedite za mirovinu,

you won't be able to afford any housing at all.

nećete si moći priuštiti nikakvo stanovanje.

Those are actual pictures of actual apartments

Ovo su stvarne slike stvarnih stanova

renting for that amount

koji se iznajmljuju za taj iznos

as advertised on the Internet.

kao što je oglašeno na internetu.

The last thing I'll show you,

Zadnja stvar koju ću vam pokazati jest

the last behavioral time machine,

posljednji vremenski stroj ponašanja,

is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,

nešto što sam stvorio s Halom Hershfieldom,

who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,

s kojim me upoznao moj suautor na prijašnjem projektu

Bill Sharpe.

Bill Sharpe.

And what it is

Ovdje se radi

is an exploration into virtual reality.

o pregledu virtualne stvarnosti.

So what we do is we take pictures of people --

Mi, dakle, fotografiramo ljude --

in this case, college-age people --

u ovom slučaju, ljude studentske dobi --

and we use software to age them

te koristimo kompjuterski program da ih postaramo

and show these people what they'll look like

i pokažemo tim ljudima kako će izgledati

when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.

sa 60, 70, 80 godina.

And we try to test

Pokušavamo provjeriti

whether actually assisting your imagination

hoće li pomaganje mašti

by looking at the face of your future self

gledanjem u lice budućeg 'ja'

can change you investment behavior.

promijeniti vaše ponašanje u vezi ulaganja.

So this is one of our experiments.

Ovo je jedan od naših pokusa.

Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.

Ovdje nalijevo vidimo lice mladog subjekta.

He's given a control

Ima kontrolu

that allows him to adjust his savings rate.

koja mu omogućava da prilagodi svoju stopu štednje.

As he moves his savings rate down,

Kako smanjuje svoju stopu štednje,

it means that he's saving zero

to znači da ne štedi ništa

when it's all the way here at the left.

kad se nalazi skroz nalijevo.

You can see his current annual income --

Vidite da je njegov trenutni godišnji prihod --

this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --

ovo je postotak plaće koju danas može ponijeti kući --

is quite high, 91 percent,

vrlo visok, 91 posto,

but his retirement income is quite low.

no njegov prihod u mirovini dosta je nizak.

He's going to retire on 44 percent

Otići će u mirovinu s 44 posto

of what he earned while he was working.

od onoga što je zarađivao dok je radio.

If he saves the maximum legal amount,

Ako uštedi maksimalan zakonski iznos,

his retirement income goes up,

njegova će se mirovina povisiti,

but he's unhappy

no on nije sretan

because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.

jer sada ima manje novca na lijevoj strani za trošenje danas.

Other conditions show people the future self.

Druge okolnosti pokazuju ljudima buduće 'ja'.

And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.

Sa stajališta budućeg 'ja', sve je obratno.

If you save very little,

Ako jako malo uštedite,

the future self is unhappy

buduće 'ja' je nesretno

living on 44 percent of the income.

jer živi s 44 posto prihoda.

Whereas if the present self saves a lot,

Ako sadašnje 'ja' puno uštedi,

the future self is delighted,

buduće 'ja' je oduševljeno,

where the income is close up near 100 percent.

jer je prihod blizu sto posto.

To bring this to a wider audience,

Kako bih ovo približio široj publici,

I've been working with Hal and Allianz

radim s Halom i Allianzom

to create something we call the behavioral time machine,

na stvaranju nečega što zovemo vremenskim strojem ponašanja

in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,

u kojem ne samo da vidite sebe u budućnosti,

but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions

nego možete vidjeti očekivane emotivne reakcije

to different levels of retirement wealth.

na različite razine bogatstva u mirovini.

So for instance,

Na primjer,

here is somebody using the tool.

ovdje netko koristi taj alat.

And just watch the facial expressions

Samo gledajte izraze lica

as they move the slider.

dok se pomiču na klizaču.

The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.

Mlađe lice postaje sretnije i sretnije ne štedeći ništa.

The older face is miserable.

Starije lice je nesretno.

And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.

Polako, polako približavamo ga srednjoj stopi štednje.

And then it's a high savings rate.

A onda dolazi visoka stopa štednje.

The younger face is getting unhappy.

Mlado lice postaje nesretnije.

The older face is quite pleased

Starije je lice prilično zadovoljno

with the decision.

odlukom.

We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.

Vidjet ćemo ima li ovo utjecaja na ono što ljudi rade.

And what's nice about it

Dobra stvar u ovome jest

is it's not something that biasing people actually,

da to zapravo ne opredjeljuje ljude,

because as one face smiles,

jer dok se jedno lice smije,

the other face frowns.

drugo se lice mrgodi.

It's not telling you which way to put the slider,

Ne govori vam kamo pomaknuti klizač

it's just reminding you that you are

nego vas samo podsjeća

connected to and legally tied to

da ste povezani i zakonom obvezani

this future self.

tom budućem 'ja'.

Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.

Vaše današnje odluke odredit će vaše blagostanje.

And that's something that's easy to forget.

A to se lako zaboravlja.

This use of virtual reality

Ova upotreba virtualne stvarnosti

is not just good for making people look older.

nije samo dobra da postara ljude.

There are programs you can get

Ima programa koje možete nabaviti

to see how people might look

da biste vidjeli kako bi ljudi izgledali

if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,

ako puše, ako se previše izlažu suncu,

if they gain weight and so on.

ako se udebljaju i tako dalje.

And what's good is,

Dobra je stvar da,

unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,

za razliku od pokusa koje smo Hal i ja izvodili s Russom Smithom,

you don't have to program these by yourself

ne morate to sami programirati

in order to see the virtual reality.

da biste vidjeli virtualnu stvarnost.

There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars

Postoje aplikacije koje možete kupiti na pametnim telefonima za nekoliko dolara,

that do the same thing.

koje rade istu stvar.

This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.

Ovo na slici je Hal, moj suautor.

You might recognize him from the previous demos.

Možda ga prepoznajete s prijašnjih demo-snimki.

And just for kicks we ran his picture

Samo za zabavu provukli smo njegovu sliku

through the balding, aging and weight gain software

kroz kompjuterski program za ćelavljenje, starenje i debljanje

to see how he would look.

da vidimo kako bi izgledao.

Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself

Hal je ovdje, tako da mislim da dugujemo i njemu i vama

to disabuse you of that last image.

da vas poštedimo te zadnje slike.

And I'll close it there.

S time ću završiti.

On behalf of Hal and myself,

U Halovo i moje ime,

I wish all the best to your present and future selves.

želim sve najbolje vašem sadašnjem i budućem 'ja'.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)