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譯者: Ana Choi
審譯者: Ann Lee
00:15
Do you remember the story
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你記不記得
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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從高中或初中
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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奧德修斯和塞壬的故事嗎?
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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有這一個英雄, 奧德修斯,剛從
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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特洛伊戰爭戰後回家。
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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他站立在他的的船的甲板上,
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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他和他的第一副手,
00:30
and he's saying,
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談着說:
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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「明天,我們將駛過那些岩石去,
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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在這些岩石上會坐着一群美麗的女子,
00:37
called Sirens.
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她們稱為塞壬。
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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而這群女子會唱着一首迷人的歌曲,
00:42
a song so alluring
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那首如此誘人的歌曲,
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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令到所有水手聽到都着迷,
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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撞到岩石而死亡。」
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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現在你當然以為鑑於這個原因,
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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他們會選擇另一條迴避塞壬們的路徑,
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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但奧德修斯竟然說:
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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「我想聽到這首歌。
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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而我要做的是要
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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在你和所有人的耳朵中
01:02
of you and all the men --
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倒進蠟--
01:04
stay with me --
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等着--
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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你們便聽不到這首歌,
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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然後你們要把我綁在桅杆上,
01:11
so that I can listen
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那我便可以聽到這首歌,
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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而我們都可以不受影響順利渡過。」
01:15
So this is a captain
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這是一個
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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只為了聽到一首歌曲, 而願意妄顧船上
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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每一個人安危的隊長。
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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而且我覺得如果是這種情況,
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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他們理應先會排練幾次。
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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奧德修斯會說: 「好吧,讓我們試試做。
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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當你把我綁在桅杆上,我會央求你把我釋放。
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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無論我說什麼,你不可以都解開我。
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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好, 現在把我綁在桅杆上吧。」
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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大副便拿着繩子
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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把奧德修斯綁在桅杆上,結了一個漂亮的結。
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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然後奧德修斯假裝演着說,
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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「解開我, 解開我。
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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我想聽聽這首歌。解開我。」
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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大副明智地抗拒
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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和不解開奧德修斯。
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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然後奧德修斯說,「好, 我看到你是行的。
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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好, 把我解開, 然後我們去吃晚餐。」
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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大副遲疑。
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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他在想: 「這是否仍是排練?
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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或是我應該解開他呢?」
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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大副在想:
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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「好吧,排練都應該有結束的時候。」
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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於是,他解開了奧德修斯,而奧德修斯卻大發雷霆,
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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罵着: 「你這個白痴。你這個蠢材。
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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如果明天你這樣做,我會死,你會死的,
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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每一個人都會死亡。
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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只要無論如何都不要解開我。」
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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他把大副推到地上。
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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整夜這個過程一再重複--
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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排練,綁在桅杆上,
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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奧德修斯哄騙着要解開他,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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毫不留情地毆打那個可憐的大副。
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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鬧劇隨之而來。
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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把自己綁在桅杆
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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也許是心理學家最長久有書寫記錄
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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所說的稱為承諾設備的例子。
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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承諾設備是一個你以冷靜頭腦
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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作出的決定來約束自己,
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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是以讓你不要當你脾气急躁時
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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做一些遺憾的事情。
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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因為當你想想看, 人內其實
02:56
when you think about it.
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有兩個頭腦。
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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當涉及到的誘惑力的問題,
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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學者早就調用到這兩個自我的比喻。
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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首先是, 目前的自我。
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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這是像奧德修斯聽到這首歌的時候。
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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他只想去坐前排。
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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他只是想到此時此地和當下的滿足。
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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但另一個自我, 是未來的自我。
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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這是奧德修斯作為一個老人,
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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一個想要在陽光明媚伊薩卡外的別墅,
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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和他的妻子佩內洛普退休
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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的奧德修斯,另一個自我。
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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那麼,為什麼我們需要承諾的設備?
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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因為抗拒誘惑是很困難的,
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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如19世紀英國經濟學家
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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老拿騷威廉說:
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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「要放棄我們有權力掌管的享受,
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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或是要企圖遙遠規避而不享有即時的效果,
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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是對人類意志最痛苦
03:50
of the human will."
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費力的事。」
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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像其他很多人一樣, 如果你為自己設定目標,
03:55
you probably realize
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你可能會意識到
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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不是你的目標過於高不可攀
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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令你不可能實現,
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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而是你缺乏自律去堅持。
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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減肥是物理上有可能實現的。
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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要多點運動物理上是有可能的。
04:09
But resisting temptation
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但抵制誘惑
04:11
is hard.
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是很難。
04:13
The other reason
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另外一個原因
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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令誘惑難以抗拒,
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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是因為在目前的自我
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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和未來的自我之間有著不平等的戰鬥。
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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我的意思是,面對現實吧,現在的自我是現在。
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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它在控制。它現在在控制權力。
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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它有著這些強大的,英勇的胳膊,
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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可以把甜圈放在你的口中。
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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而未來的自我根甚本不存。
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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它在未來。它薄弱。
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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它甚至沒有律師在場。
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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沒有人堅持為未來的自我爭辯。
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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所以現在的自我可以打垮
04:45
all over its dreams.
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所有未來的夢想。
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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這自我兩者之間的鬥爭在戰鬥中,
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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我們需要的承諾設備
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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來公平平整兩者之間的競爭環境。
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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事實上我是承諾設備的擁躉。
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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把自己綁在桅杆上是最古老的一例,但也有其他的,
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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例如把信用卡用鑰匙鎖着
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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或不把垃圾食品帶回家,這樣你便不會吃它,
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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或拔走互聯網連接,
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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因此你可以實在使用你的電腦。
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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我早在未認識承諾設備之前
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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已經創造我自己的承諾設。
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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當我還是一個身無長物的哥倫比亞大學
05:19
at Columbia University,
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博士畢業生,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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當時我的職業生涯是在於發布或滅亡的階段。
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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我要為文章
05:26
towards papers
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每一天寫五頁,
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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否則我便要放棄五塊錢。
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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且當你嘗試執行這些承諾設備的時候,
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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你會意識到真正的苦處在於細節。
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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因為要擺脫五塊錢不是那麼容易。
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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我的意思是,你可以不燒它,這是非法的。
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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我想,我可以把它捐贈給一個慈善機構,
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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或把它給我的妻子, 等等。
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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但轉念一想,哦,我是在給予自己混淆的訊息。
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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因為不寫作是不好,但給慈善機構是好的。
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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以給他人一種賜予, 那麼想
05:53
by giving a gift.
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我便有理由不寫作。
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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然後,我會這樣的翻轉左右思想,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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我可以把它給予新納粹分子。
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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但我便會想,這其實比寫作更壞,
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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這樣想行不通。
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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所以,最後我決定
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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我會把它放入一個信封內並留在地鐵上。
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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有時一個好人會找到它,
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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有時一個壞人會找到它。
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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平均而言,它只是一個完全沒有意義掉錢的方法,
06:16
that I would regret.
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以我至會後悔。
06:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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它便是承諾的設備。
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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但儘管我喜歡它們,
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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我一直有兩個
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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關於承諾設備的顧慮,
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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如果你使用它們自己, 你都可能會發覺到。
06:34
So the first is,
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第一個是,
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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當你已經有了這些設備,
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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例如要經常寫作否則要付帳,
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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它只是不斷地提醒
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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你有沒有自我控制的能力。
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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你只是在告訴自己:「如果沒有你,承諾設備,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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我什麼也不是,我不能自律。」
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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然後當你在一個沒有
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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承諾設備安設的情況--
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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「噢我的天,那個人要給我一個甜圈,
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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而我沒有任何的防禦機制,」--
06:59
you just eat it.
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你便把它吃掉了。
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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因此,我並不喜歡它們能夠有遠離你的權力。
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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我認為自律是一種東西,它像一塊肌肉。
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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你鍛煉它,它便更強壯。
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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承諾設備的另一個問題是,
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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你可以耍滑头逃脱它們。
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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你會說:「好了,今天我當然不能寫作,
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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因為我要給TEDTalk演說, 以及5家媒體採訪,
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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然後我要去一個雞尾酒會,然後我便會喝醉。
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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所以根本沒有辦法執筆。」
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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這樣實際上,你像是奧德修斯和大副
07:28
in one person.
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混合為一人。
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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你把你自己,你綁定你自己,
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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和你正在滑头地逃脱,
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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然而之後你便會責備自己。」
07:37
So I've been working
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因此我一直在工作了
07:39
for about a decade now
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近十年,
07:41
on finding other ways
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在尋找其他的方法
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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不使用承諾設備來改變
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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人與未來自的我的關係。
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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我的興趣特別是在於與
07:50
to the future financial self.
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未來自我財政的關係。
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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我說的是節儉積蓄的話題。
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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節能是一個典型的兩個自我的問題。
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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如今的自我完全不希望儲蓄。
08:03
It wants to consume.
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它想花費。
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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而未來的自我卻希望目前的自我儲蓄。
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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看看我們的儲蓄率,
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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它自50年代以來一直下降。
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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與此同時,退休風險指數,
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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未能在退休後滿足你需求的機會,
08:22
has been increasing.
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一直在上升。
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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而現在我們的情況是,
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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每三個嬰兒潮一代的人,
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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麥肯錫全球研究所預計,
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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在他們退休的時候。有兩個將無法
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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滿足其退休前的需要。
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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那我們可以做些什麼呢?
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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有一個哲學家,德瑞克•帕菲特,
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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他說了一些對我和我的合著者甚有發啟性話的,
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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他說: 「我們可能會忽視我們未來的自我,
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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皆因一些失敗的信念或想像力。」
08:52
That is to say,
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這就是說,
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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我們不知何故可能不相信我們會變老,
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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或我們可能無法想像
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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一天會變老。
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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一方面,這聽上去有些可笑。
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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當然,我們知道,我們無疑會變老。
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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我們是不是有一些我們在同一時間相信和不相信的東西呢?
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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所以我和我的合著者使用電腦,
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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我們這個時代最偉大的工具,
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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以協助人們的想像力,
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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並幫助他們想像進入未來
09:18
to go into the future.
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可能會是怎麼樣。
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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而我會在這裡告訴你其中一些工具。
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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首先的是所謂分佈的建設。
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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由一百個在未來同樣可能
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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獲得的結果, 它顯示了
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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人在未來的可能。
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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每一個結果由這些標誌物顯示,
09:36
and each sits on a row
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每個坐在一排,
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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代表了財富和退休的水平。
09:40
Being up at the top
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在頂部的
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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意味著你退休後享受高的收入。
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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在底部的
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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便意味著你掙扎地入不敷出。
09:48
When you make an investment,
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當你作出投資時,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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你真的是在說:「我接受
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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這100件事情中任何的一件
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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都可能會發生在我身上,並會決定我的財富。」
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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刻下你可以嘗試將你的成果推動攪拌。
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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你可以嘗試操縱自己的命運,這個人便正是這樣做,
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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但你這樣做要有代價。
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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這意味著你有今天要節省更多。
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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一旦你找到你合意的投資,
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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只要點擊「完成」,
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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標記會開始消失,
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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慢慢地,一個跟一個。
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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它模擬投資的東西,
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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和顯示投資的成績。
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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最後,只會剩下一個標記,
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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它將決定我們在退休的財富。
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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不錯,這個人
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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在他在退休後的收入是工作時收入的150%。
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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他們退休時比工作時
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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賺得更多。
10:37
If you're like most people,
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如果你像大多數人一樣,
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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只是看到了這個你便會感到小小得意和喜悅--
10:43
just to think about making
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只是要想想
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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退休時有比以前約50%更多的錢。
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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然而,倘若你在最底層,
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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它可能會給你一個輕微的
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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恐懼和/或噁心的感覺,
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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想到退休後在掙扎生活。
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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通過使用這個工具一遍又一遍
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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和模擬大量結果後,
11:03
people can understand
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人們可以理解,
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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今天他們所承擔的儲蓄和投資
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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決定他們在未來的福祉。
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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人是通過情緒的刺激動機,
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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但不同的人是會以不同的東西感到激勵。
11:16
This is a simulation
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這是一個使用
11:19
that uses graphics,
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圖形的模擬,
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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但其他人會看到錢可以買什麼而激勵感到,
11:23
not just numbers.
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不只是數字。
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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所以我製造一個生產分佈的建設器,
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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不是顯示數值結果,
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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而是我告訴人們這些成果將會買得什麼,
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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例如你退休每月有3000元,
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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2500元,或2000元
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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便會買得起的公寓等等。
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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當你移動公寓的層次向下,
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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你可以看到它們越來越差。
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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其中一些看起來像我作為一個研究生起居的地方。
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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到最底層,
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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你會面對不幸的現實,
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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如果你不為退休儲蓄什麼,
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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你根本不會能夠負擔得起任何房屋。
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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這些實實在在都是在互聯網上
12:03
renting for that amount
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刊登廣告的圖片,
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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顯示租用公寓的數額。
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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最後我告訴你的一件事,
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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是一個行為時間機器,
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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是我和Hal Hershfield合作創建的東西,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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他便是給我介紹之前提及的項目合著者的人,
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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Bill Sharpe。
12:19
And what it is
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它是是一個
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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進入虛擬現實的探索。
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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我們要做的是攝取人們的照片 --
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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在這個例子,大學年齡的人--
12:28
and we use software to age them
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然後我們使用軟件變老他們的面容,
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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並顯示給他們看,他們在
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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60, 70, 80歲時將會是什麼樣子。
12:35
And we try to test
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我們試圖測試
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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實際協助你的想像力
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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來面對你未來的自我,
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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是否可以改變你投資的作風。
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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這是我們的實驗之一。
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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在這裡,我們看到在左邊的年輕人的面孔。
12:50
He's given a control
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他被給予一個控制,
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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讓他能夠調整自己的儲蓄率。
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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當他將他的儲蓄率下降,
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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意味著他的儲蓄為零時,
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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直到最左邊。
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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你可以看到他目前的年收入 --
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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這是他今天可以帶回家的薪水百分比--
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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是相當高,91%,
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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但他退休後的收入是相當低。
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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他在退休時將會得到
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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他工作時44%的收入。
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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如果他儲蓄法律上允許的最大金額,
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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他退休後的收入便上升,
13:19
but he's unhappy
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但他不快樂,
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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因為現在他會有較少的錢在今天花。
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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其他狀況展示人們未來的自我。
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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從未來自我的角度來看,一切都反向。
13:31
If you save very little,
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如果儲蓄得很少,
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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未來的自我以44%的收入,
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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生活是不愉快的。
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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而如果目前的自我儲蓄了很多,
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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收入接近100%附近左右,
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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未來的自我會很高興。
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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要把這個更廣泛的受眾,
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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我一直在與Hal和Allianz
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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創造一個我們稱之為行為時間機器的東西,
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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你不僅能看到自己的未來,
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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你還能看到預期不同退休財富水平
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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的情緒反應。
14:04
So for instance,
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例如,
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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這裡是有人在使用這工具。
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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只看看當他
14:10
as they move the slider.
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移動滑塊的面部表情。
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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當儲蓄越少, 年輕的臉變得更快樂。
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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老的臉是苦不堪言。
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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慢慢地,我們將它移動到中等的儲蓄率。
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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然後,一個高儲蓄率。
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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年輕的臉是越來越不滿。
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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年長的臉對決定是
14:24
with the decision.
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相當滿意。
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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我們要看看這會否有影響人的效果。
14:29
And what's nice about it
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它的好處是,
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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因為實際上不是偏置人,
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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以當一面在笑,
14:36
the other face frowns.
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另一面便皺眉。
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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它不會告訴你應該如何移動滑塊,
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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它只是提醒你,
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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你是跟未來的自我
14:45
this future self.
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息息相關。
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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你今天的決定是以確定其福祉。
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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而這是很容易忘記的東西。
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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使用這種虛擬現實,
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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不僅僅是讓人們看看年邁的面貌。
14:58
There are programs you can get
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還有其他程式讓你可以
15:00
to see how people might look
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看到人們如果吸煙,
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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如果他們過多地暴露在陽光下的結果,
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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或如果他們體重增加,等等。
15:07
And what's good is,
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好處是,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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和我,Hal, 和Russ Smith在實驗不同的是,
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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你不用自己手動編這些程式
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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才能看到虛擬的現實。
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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只是幾元錢一個,你便可以在智能手機上
15:20
that do the same thing.
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做到同樣的事情。
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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這圖片實際上是Hal,我的合著者。
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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你可能從以前的演示中認出他。
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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我們只是玩玩着, 把他的照片
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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輸入禿頂,衰老和體重增加的軟件,
15:33
to see how he would look.
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看看他會變成怎樣。
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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Hal是在這裡,所以我覺得我們應該為尊重他
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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而毀滅最後的圖片。
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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而我以此終結。
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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代表Hal和我本人,
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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我祝愿你現在和未來的自我都美好。
15:48
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:50
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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