Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

311,968 views ใƒป 2011-12-21

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Ann Yoon ๊ฒ€ํ† : Hyemin Jeon
00:15
Do you remember the story
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ค‘ํ•™๊ต๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๋“ฑํ•™๊ต์—์„œ์˜
00:17
of Odysseus and the Sirens
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค์™€ ์‚ฌ์ด๋ Œ์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ
00:19
from high school or junior high school?
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๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
00:21
There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home
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ํŠธ๋กœ์ด ์ „์Ÿ์ด ๋๋‚˜๊ณ  ์ง‘์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋˜ ์˜์›…
00:24
after the Trojan War.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:26
And he's standing on the deck of his ship,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ์˜ ๊ฐ‘ํŒ์— ์„œ์„œ
00:28
he's talking to his first mate,
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1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:30
and he's saying,
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ,
00:32
"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,
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"๋‚ด์ผ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ € ๋ฐ”์œ„๋“ค์„ ์ง€๋‚˜ ํ•ญํ•ดํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
00:35
and on those rocks sit some beautiful women
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์ € ๋ฐ”์œ„๋“ค์—๋Š” ์‚ฌ์ด๋ Œ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
00:37
called Sirens.
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์•„๋ฆ„๋‹ค์šด ์—ฌ์ธ๋“ค์ด ์•‰์•„์žˆ์ง€.
00:39
And these women sing an enchanting song,
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์ด ์—ฌ์ธ๋“ค์€ ํ™ฉํ™€ํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š”๋ฐ,
00:42
a song so alluring
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋„ ๋งคํ˜น์ ์ด์—ฌ์„œ
00:44
that all sailors who hear it
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๋“ฃ๋Š” ์„ ์›๋“ค ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€
00:46
crash into the rocks and die."
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๋ฐ”์œ„๋“ค์— ๋ถ€๋”ช์ณ ์ฃฝ๊ฒŒ๋œ๋‹ค ํ•˜์ง€."
00:48
Now you would expect, given that,
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์ด์ œ ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ์ฃผ์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๋ฉด
00:50
that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ์ด๋ Œ์„ ํ”ผํ•˜๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด ๋Œ€์ฒด ํ•ญ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ 
00:53
but instead Odysseus says,
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์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ,
00:56
"I want to hear that song.
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"๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ทธ ๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋“ฃ๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค.
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‚˜๋Š” ์ด์ œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears
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๋ชจ๋“  ์„ ์›๋“ค์˜ ๊ท€์— ๋ฐ€๋ž์„
01:02
of you and all the men --
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์ฑ„์šธํ…Œ๋‹ˆ--
01:04
stay with me --
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๋‚˜์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์žˆ์–ด์ฃผ๋ฉด์„œ--
01:06
so that you can't hear the song,
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๋„ˆํฌ๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋“ค์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ณ 
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‚˜๋Š” ๋„ˆํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚  ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ์„œ
01:11
so that I can listen
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๋‚˜๋Š” (๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ) ๋“ค์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected."
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ํ•ญํ•ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€."
01:15
So this is a captain
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์‹ค๋กœ ์ž์‹ ์ด ๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋“ฃ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
01:18
putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk
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๋ฐฐ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ํ•œ ๋ช… ํ•œ ๋ช…์˜ ๋ชฉ์ˆจ์„
01:20
so that he can hear a song.
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์œ„ํƒœ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์„ ์žฅ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋”๋ผ๋ฉด
01:24
they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.
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์•„๋งˆ ๋ช‡ ๋ฒˆ ์ •๋„ ๋ฆฌํ—ˆ์„ค์„ ํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:27
Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋Š” ์•„๋งˆ๋„, "์ข‹์•„, ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์—ฐ์Šต์„ ํ•ด๋ณด์ž."๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
01:30
You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.
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"๋„ˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ๊ณ , ๋‚˜๋Š” ๋นŒ๊ณ  ๋ถ€ํƒํ•  ๊ฑฐ์•ผ.
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ๋ญ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋“ , ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋›๋Œ€์—์„œ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋ผ.
01:35
All right, so tie me to the mast."
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์ข‹์•„, ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ์–ด์ค˜."
01:37
And the first mate takes a rope
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋ฐง์ค„์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
01:39
and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋งค๋“ญ์„ ์ž˜ ์ง€์–ด ๋ฌถ์–ด ๋†“์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
And Odysseus does his best job playacting
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋Š” ์ตœ์„ ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํŽผ์น˜๋ฉฐ
01:44
and says, "Untie me. Untie me.
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๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, "๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ค˜. ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ค˜.
01:46
I want to hear that song. Untie me."
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๋‚˜๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ๋“ฃ๊ณ ์‹ถ์–ด. ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ค˜."
01:48
And the first mate wisely resists
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋Š” ํ˜„๋ช…ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„ ์ €ํ•ญํ•˜๋ฉฐ
01:50
and doesn't untie Odysseus.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:52
And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ์ž ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋Š”, "๋‹ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ดํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ข€ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ตฌ๋‚˜.
01:55
All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."
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์ข‹์•˜์–ด, ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ €๋…์„ ๋จน์ž."๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
And the first mate hesitates.
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1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ฃผ์ €ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋Œ€๋žต, "์ด๊ฑฐ ์•„์ง๋„ ๋ฆฌํ—ˆ์„ค์ธ๊ฐ€,
02:02
or should I untie him?"
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋‚˜?"๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:05
And the first mate thinks,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋Š”, "๊ธ€์Ž„, ๋‚ด ์ƒ๊ฐ์—
02:07
"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."
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๋ฆฌํ—ˆ์„ค์€ ์–ธ์  ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋๋‚˜์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ,"๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€์š”.
02:10
So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋Š” ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ๊ณ , ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๋Š” ๋ฒŒ์ปฅ ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:13
He's like, "You idiot. You moron.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋Œ€๋žต, "์ด ๋ฐ”๋ณด. ์ด ๋ฉ์ฒญ์ด.
02:15
If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,
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๋‹ˆ๊ฐ€ ๋‚ด์ผ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋‚˜๋„ ์ฃฝ๊ณ , ๋„ˆ๋„ ์ฃฝ๊ณ ,
02:17
every single one of the men will be dead.
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ํ•œ ๋ช…๋„ ๋‚จ๊น€์—†์ด ์ฃฝ๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฑฐ์•ผ.
02:19
Now just don't untie me no matter what."
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์ด์ œ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์žˆ๋˜ ๊ฐ„์— ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ’€์ง€ ๋งˆ."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:22
He throws the first mate to the ground.
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๊ทธ๋Š” 1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์— ๋‚ด๋˜์ ธ ๋ฒ„๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
This repeats itself through the night --
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๋ฐค์ƒˆ๋„๋ก ๊ณ„์†๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
02:26
rehearsal, tying to the mast,
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๋ฆฌํ—ˆ์„ค, ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
02:28
conning his way out of it,
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์†์—ฌ์„œ ํ’€๋ ค์ ธ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ,
02:30
beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.
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๋ฌด์ž๋น„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ถˆ์Œํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„ 1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋•Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
02:33
Hilarity ensues.
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์กฐ๊ธˆ์€ ์šฐ์Šต๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•˜๋„ค์š”.
02:36
Tying yourself to a mast
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‹น์‹  ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
02:38
is perhaps the oldest written example
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์‹ฌ๋ฆฌํ•™์ž๋“ค์ด ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜(commitment device)๋ผ๊ณ 
02:40
of what psychologists call a commitment device.
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ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์˜ ์•„๋งˆ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ์˜ˆ์‹œ์ผ ๊ฒƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:43
A commitment device is a decision that you make
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ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋Š” ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์„ฑ๊ธ‰ํ•  ๋•Œ์—
02:46
with a cool head to bind yourself
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ํ›„ํšŒํ•  ํ–‰๋™์„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable
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์ฐจ๊ฐ€์šด ์ด์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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์ž์‹ ์„ ๋ฌถ์–ด๋†“๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฐ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณผ ๋•Œ
02:56
when you think about it.
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๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฉด์ด ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ์•ˆ์— ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:58
Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves
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ํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ถฉ๋™์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋…ผ์˜ํ•  ๋•Œ์—๋Š”
03:01
when it comes to questions of temptation.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ '๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ์ž์‹ '์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋น„์œ ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์ง€์š”.
03:04
There is first, the present self.
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์ฒซ์งธ, ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:07
This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋…ธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋“ฃ๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ์˜ ์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค์™€ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:10
He just wants to get to the front row.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๊ทธ์ € ์•ž์ค„๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์‹ถ์„ ๋ฟ์ด์ง€์š”.
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ˜„์‹œ์ ๋งŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์ ์ธ ๋งŒ์กฑ๊ฐ๋งŒ์„ ์›ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future self.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ž์‹ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์ด์ง€์š”.
03:18
This is Odysseus as an old man
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๋ถ€์ธ ํŽ˜๋„ฌ๋กœํŽ˜์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa
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์ดํƒ€์นด(์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค ๊ณ ํ–ฅ) ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ํ™”์ฐฝํ•œ ์ฃผํƒ์—์„œ
03:23
with his wife Penelope
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์€ํ‡ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜๋Š” ๋…ธ์ธ์œผ๋กœ์„œ์˜
03:25
outside of Ithaca -- the other one.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค -- ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:31
So why do we need commitment devices?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์™œ ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
03:35
Well resisting temptation is hard,
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๊ธ€์Ž„, ์œ ํ˜น์„ ๊ฒฌ๋””๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:37
as the 19th century English economist
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ ์˜๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž
03:40
Nassau William Senior said,
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Nassau William Senior๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ,
03:42
"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์† ์•ˆ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์›€์„ ์ž์ œํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
03:45
or to seek distant rather than immediate results,
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์งํฅ์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋Œ€์‹  ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
03:48
are among the most painful exertions
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์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์˜์ง€๋ ฅ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š”
03:50
of the human will."
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ณ ํ†ต์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ๋ถ„ํˆฌ์ด๋‹ค."
03:52
If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,
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์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์„ธ์šฐ๊ณ , ๋˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค๋ฉด
03:55
you probably realize
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์•„๋งˆ๋„ ๊ทธ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋“ค์ด ์‹ค์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ
03:57
it's not that your goals are physically impossible
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๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์„œ ์„ฑ์ทจํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชป ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
03:59
that's keeping you from achieving them,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๊ทธ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๊ณ ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ์—๋Š”
04:01
it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.
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์ž๊ธฐ ํ›ˆ๋ จ์ด ์•ˆ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:04
It's physically possible to lose weight.
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์‚ด์„ ๋นผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹ ์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€์š”.
04:06
It's physically possible to exercise more.
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์šด๋™์„ ๋” ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€์š”. ์‹ค์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”.
04:09
But resisting temptation
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์œ ํ˜น์„ ์ฐธ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
04:11
is hard.
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์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:13
The other reason
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์œ ํ˜น์„ ์ฐธ๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์šด
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation
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์œ ํ˜น์„ ๊ฒฌ๋””๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“  ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
04:18
is because it's an unequal battle
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹  ์‚ฌ์ด
04:21
between the present self and the future self.
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๋ถˆ๊ณตํ‰ํ•œ ์ „ํˆฌ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:23
I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.
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์ œ ๋ง์€, ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์ง์‹œํ•˜์ž๊ตฌ์š”, ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
It's in control. It's in power right now.
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ํ†ต์ œํ•˜๋Š” ์œ„์น˜์— ์žˆ์ฃ . ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‹น์žฅ ์ •๊ถŒ์„ ์žก์•˜๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
04:28
It has these strong, heroic arms
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ํ˜„์‹ค์ด๋ž€ ์˜์›…์ ์ด๊ณ  ์„ผ ํŒ”์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์„œ
04:30
that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.
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๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์ž… ์†์œผ๋กœ ๋„๋„›์„ ๋„ฃ์–ด ์ค„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
04:32
And the future self is not even around.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์€ ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ์ฃผ์œ„์— ์žˆ์ง€๋„ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:35
It's off in the future. It's weak.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋จผ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๊ฐ€์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•ฝํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer present.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๊ณ  'ํ˜„์žฌ'์— ๋ณ€ํ˜ธ์‚ฌ ํ•œ ๋ช… ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋†“์•„๋‘” ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ฃ .
04:40
There's nobody to stick up for the future self.
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์•„๋ฌด๋„ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ถˆ์‘ฅ ๋‚˜์™€ ์ค„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:42
And so the present self can trounce
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ์€ ๊ทธ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๊ฟˆ๋“ค์„
04:45
all over its dreams.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์™„ํŒŒํ•ด ๋ฒ„๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:47
So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‘ ๋ช…์˜ ์ž์‹  ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ์ „ํˆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ธ๋ฐ,
04:51
and we need commitment devices
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‘˜ ์‚ฌ์ด ๊ณตํ‰ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์˜ ์žฅ์„
04:53
to level the playing field between the two.
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๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:56
Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ €๋Š” ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜์˜ ์—ดํ˜ˆ ํŒฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:59
Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones
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์ž๊ธฐ ์ž์‹ ์„ ๋›๋Œ€์— ๋ฌถ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธดํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
05:02
such as locking a credit card away with a key
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์‹ ์šฉ ์นด๋“œ๋ฅผ ์—ด์‡ ๋กœ ์ž ๊ตฌ์–ด ๋ฒ„๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€,
05:06
or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it
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๋จน์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋„๋ก ์ •ํฌ ํ‘ธ๋“œ(๋ชธ์— ์•ˆ ์ข‹์€ ์Œ์‹)๋ฅผ ์ง‘์— ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€,
05:09
or unplugging your Internet connection
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์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก
05:11
so you can use your computer.
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์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท ์ ‘์†์„ ๋Š์–ด ๋ฒ„๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€ ๋“ฑ๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:13
I was creating commitment devices of my own
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€๋„ ์•Œ๊ธฐ ์ „๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
05:15
long before I knew what they were.
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์ €๋Š” ์ €๋งŒ์˜ ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:17
So when I was a starving post-doc
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฝœ๋กฌ๋น„์•„ ๋Œ€ํ•™์—์„œ
05:19
at Columbia University,
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๊ตถ์ฃผ๋ฆฌ๋˜ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ ํ•™์œ„์˜ ํ•™์ž์˜€์„ ๋•Œ,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.
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์ €๋Š” ์ œ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์—์„œ '์ถœํŒ-์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด-์ฃฝ์Œ'๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
05:24
I had to write five pages a day
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๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด
05:26
towards papers
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๋งค์ผ ๋‹ค์„ฏ์žฅ์”ฉ ์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars.
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5๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(5,610์›)๋ฅผ ํฌ๊ธฐํ•ด ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:31
And when you try to execute these commitment devices,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ์‹คํ–‰ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋ฉด,
05:34
you realize the devil is really in the details.
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์ •๋ง ๋น ์ ธ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ตฌ์„๋„ ์ด๋ฆฌ์ €๋ฆฌ ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•Œ์•„์ฑ„์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:36
Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด 5๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ์—†์• ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์‰ฌ์šด ์ผ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:39
I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.
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์ œ ๋ง์€, ํƒœ์šฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ถˆ๋ฒ•์ด๋‹ˆ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ณ ์š”.
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”, ๊ธ€์Ž„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๊ธฐ๋ถ€ ๋‹จ์ฒด์— ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:44
or give it to my wife or something like that.
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๋ถ€์ธ์—๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ๋˜์ง€ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋˜๊ฒ ๋”๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ๋Š”, ์˜ค, ์ €๋Š” ์ œ ์ž์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ๋’ค์„ž์ธ ๊ตํ›ˆ์„ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ์“ฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ธฐ๋ถ€ ๋‹จ์ฒด์— ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
05:51
So then I would kind of justify not writing
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์ €๋Š” ๊ธ€์„ ์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
05:53
by giving a gift.
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์„ ๋ฌผ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ •๋‹นํ™”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:55
And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ๋Œ๋ ค ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์•„,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.
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๊ธ€์Ž„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์‹ (ๆ–ฐ)๋‚˜์น˜์ฃผ์˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ๋ฉด ๋˜๊ฒ ๋„ค.
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๋•Œ๋Š” ๋˜, '๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ธ€์“ฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค
06:02
and so that wouldn't work.
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๋” ๋‚˜์œ ์ผ์ด์ž–์•„'ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ข€์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋˜์ง€๋ฅผ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:04
So ultimately, I just decided
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ถ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ,
06:06
I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์ง€ํ•˜์ฒ ์— ๋ด‰ํˆฌ ์ฑ„๋กœ ๋†“์•„ ๋†“๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:09
Sometimes a good person would find it,
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๊ฐ€๋”์€ ์„ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ฐพ๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
06:11
sometimes a bad person would find it.
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๋•Œ๋กœ๋Š” ๋‚˜์œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ฐพ๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
06:13
On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ›„ํšŒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์˜๋ฏธ์—†๋Š”
06:16
that I would regret.
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๋ˆ์˜ ๊ตํ™˜์ด๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
06:18
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
06:21
Such it is with commitment devices.
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ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋Š” ๋Œ€๋žต ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:24
But despite my like for them,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ์ข‹์•„ํ•จ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ ,
06:28
there's two nagging concerns
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์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ ์žˆ๋˜
06:30
that I've always had about commitment devices,
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๊ณ„์†๋˜๋Š” ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฑฑ์ •์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
06:32
and you might feel this if you use them yourself.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹น์‹ ๋„ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด ๋Š๋ผ์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ์‹ค๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
So the first is,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์žฅ์น˜๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ
06:36
when you've got one of these devices going,
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์‹คํ–‰์‹œํ‚ค๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด
06:38
such as this contract to write everyday or pay,
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๋งค์ผ ๊ธ€์„ ์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๋ˆ์„ ๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๋ง์ด์ฃ ,
06:41
it's just a constant reminder
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๋‹น์‹  ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋Š”
06:43
that you have no self-control.
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ํ†ต์ œํ•  ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ณ„์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ธฐ์‹œํ‚ฌ ๋ฟ์ด์˜ˆ์š”.
06:45
You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋‹น์‹  ์Šค์Šค๋กœ์—๊ฒŒ, "๋„ˆ ์—†์ด๋Š”, ํ–‰๋™ ์žฅ์น˜์•ผ,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."
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๋‚˜๋Š” ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์•„๋‹ˆ์•ผ, ๋‚˜๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ฅผ ํ†ต์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ฑฐ๋“ ."์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ํ–‰๋™ ์žฅ์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ง€์•Š์€
06:52
where you don't have a commitment device in place --
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์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์ฒ˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋Œ€๋žต,
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,
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"์˜ค, ์ด๋Ÿฐ, ์ € ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ ๋„๋„›์„ ๊ถŒํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
06:57
and I have no defense mechanism," --
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๋‚˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐฉ์–ดํ•ด ์ค„ ๋งŒํ•œ ์žฅ์น˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์–ด,"๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๊ณ 
06:59
you just eat it.
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋จน๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋‹น์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํž˜์„ ์—†์•  ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด ๋งˆ์Œ์— ๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:04
I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.
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์ €๋Š” ์ž์‹ ์„ ํ†ต์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํž˜์€ ๊ทผ์œก๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.
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์šด๋™ํ•˜๋ฉด ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋” ๊ฐ•ํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
07:10
The other problem with commitment devices
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ํ–‰๋™์žฅ์น˜์˜ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์€ ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜
07:12
is that you can always weasel your way out of them.
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ํšŒํ”ผํ•  ๋งŒํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:15
You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,
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"๊ธ€์Ž„, ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์˜ค๋Š˜์€ ์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ง€, ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,
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๋‚˜๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ TED ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๋””์–ด ์ธํ„ฐ๋ทฐ๊ฐ€ 5๊ฐœ ์žˆ๊ณ ,
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋‚˜๋Š” ์นตํ…Œ์ผ ํŒŒํ‹ฐ์— ๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ๊ทธ ์ดํ›„์— ์ทจํ•  ํ…Œ๊ณ .
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์—†์ง€."๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:26
So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ํ•œ ๋ชธ์— 1๋“ฑ ํ•ญํ•ด์‚ฌ์™€
07:28
in one person.
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์˜ค๋””์„ธ์šฐ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋‘˜ ๋‹ค ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋‹น์‹  ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ€์–ด๋„ฃ๊ณ , ๋ฌถ์–ด ๋†“๊ณ ,
07:33
and you're weaseling your way out of it,
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๊ทธ ํ‹ˆ ์‚ฌ์ด๋กœ ๋น ์ ธ ๋‚˜์˜ค๊ณ ,
07:35
and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.
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๊ทธ ์ดํ›„๋กœ ์ž๊ธฐ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋•Œ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:37
So I've been working
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
07:39
for about a decade now
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์•ฝ 10๋…„ ์ „์—์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
07:41
on finding other ways
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ํ–‰๋™ ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ ๋„
07:43
to change people's relationship to the future self
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š”
07:45
without using commitment devices.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋“ค์„ ์ฐพ์•„์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:47
In particular, I'm interested in the relationship
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ํŠนํžˆ ์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์žฌ์ •์ ์ธ ๋ฉด๊ณผ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์—
07:50
to the future financial self.
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ํฅ๋ฏธ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:54
And this is a timely issue.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์Ÿ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:56
I'm talking about the topic of saving.
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์ €๋Š” ์ €์ถ•์ด๋ž€ ์ฃผ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งํ•˜๋ คํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:58
Now saving is a classic two selves problem.
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์ €์ถ•์€ '๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ์ž์‹ '์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ „ํ˜•์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:00
The present self does not want to save at all.
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ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ์€ ์•„์˜ˆ ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:03
It wants to consume.
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๋‹จ์ง€ ์†Œ๋ชจํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•˜์ง€์š”.
08:05
Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— '๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ '์€ 'ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ '์ด ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:09
So this is a timely problem.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ €์ถ• ๋น„์œจ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด
08:13
and it has been declining since the 1950s.
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1950๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดํ›„๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:16
At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ™์€ ์‹œ์ ์—, ์€ํ‡ด ์œ„๊ธฐ ์ง€์ˆ˜,
08:19
the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,
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์€ํ‡ด ์ดํ›„ ๋จน๊ณ  ์‚ด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๋งŒํผ
08:22
has been increasing.
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๋ฒŒ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:24
And we're at a situation now
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฒ ์ด๋น„ ๋ถ ์„ธ๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์€ํ‡ดํ•  ๋•Œ,
08:26
where for every three baby boomers,
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3๋ช… ์ค‘ 2๋ช…์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
08:28
the McKinsey Global Institute predicts
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์ž์‹ ๋“ค์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์€ํ‡ด ์ค€๋น„๋ฅผ ์ถฉ์กฑ์‹œํ‚ค์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ 
08:30
that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs
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๋งฅํ‚จ์ง€ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์—์„œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ๋‚ด ๋†“์€
08:34
while they're in retirement.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ํ˜„์žฌ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋‚˜์š”?
08:39
There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,
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์ €์™€ ์ €์˜ ๊ณต๋™ ์ง‘ํ•„์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ธ์ƒ ๊นŠ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ง์”€์„ ํ•˜์…จ๋˜
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.
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๋ฐ๋ฆญ ํŒ”ํ•(Derek Parfit)์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ฒ ํ•™์ž๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:45
He said that, "We might neglect our future selves
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๊ทธ๋Š”, "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฏฟ์Œ์˜ ์‹คํŒจ๋‚˜ ์ƒ์ƒ๋ ฅ ๋“ฑ์˜ ์ด์œ ๋กœ
08:48
because of some failure of belief or imagination."
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์„ ๋ฐฉ์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค."
08:52
That is to say,
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์ด ๋ง์€, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
08:54
we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,
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๋‚˜์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์–ด๋–ค ์ด์œ ์—์„œ ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
08:57
or we might not be able to imagine
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ํ˜น์€, ์–ธ์  ๊ฐ€ ๋Š™๊ฒŒ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ฐ™๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์—, ์šฐ์Šค๊ฝ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋“ค๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:03
Of course, we know that we're going to get old.
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๋ฌผ๋ก , ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏฟ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ๋™์‹œ์— ์•ˆ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‚˜์š”?
09:08
So my coauthors and I have used computers,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ณต๋™ ์ง‘ํ•„์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์ €๋Š”
09:11
the greatest tool of our time,
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€
09:13
to assist people's imagination
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์ƒ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ๋„์™€์ฃผ๊ณ 
09:15
and help them imagine what it might be like
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ์ƒ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์กฐํ•ด์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
09:18
to go into the future.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๋„๊ตฌ์ธ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:20
And I'll show you some of these tools right here.
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๊ทธ ์ค‘์˜ ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—์„œ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:23
The first is called the distribution builder.
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ถ„ํฌ ์ƒ์„ฑ๊ธฐ(Distribution Builder)์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:25
It shows people what the future might be like
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” 100๊ฐ€์ง€์˜โ™ซ
09:28
by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes
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๋™์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์žˆ์„ ๋ฒ•ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์คŒ์œผ๋กœ์„œ
09:31
that might be obtained in the future.
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋– ํ• ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:33
Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,
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๊ฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ด ํ‘œ์‹œ๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๊ณ ,
09:36
and each sits on a row
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๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ํ‘œ์‹œ๋Š” ์—ด๋กœ ๋‚˜์—ด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
09:38
that represents a level of wealth and retirement.
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๊ฐ ์—ด์€ ๋ถ€์˜ ์ •๋„์™€ ์€ํ‡ด๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:40
Being up at the top
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ƒ๋‹จ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
09:42
means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.
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์€ํ‡ด ํ›„ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ž…์„ ์ฆ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:44
Being down at the bottom
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋ฐ‘๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
09:46
means that you're struggling to make ends meet.
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๋จน๊ณ  ์‚ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ˆ์„ ๋ฒŒ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ณ ๊ตฐ๋ถ„ํˆฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
When you make an investment,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ํ•  ๋•Œ,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋งํ•ด์•ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€, "๋‚˜๋Š”
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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์ด 100๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ค‘ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋„ ๋‚˜์—๊ฒŒ
09:54
could happen to me and determine my wealth."
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์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋‚˜์˜ ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด."์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:56
Now you can try to move your outcomes around.
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์ด์ œ ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ”๋ณด๋ ค ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:59
You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์šด๋ช…์„ ์กฐ์ข…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋งˆ์น˜ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ด์ฃ ,
10:02
but it costs you something to do it.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋งŒํ•œ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:04
It means that you have to save more today.
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์˜ ์ €์ถ• ์–‘์„ ๋Š˜๋ ค์•ผํ•˜์ฃ .
10:08
Once you find an investment that you're happy with,
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๋งŒ์กฑํ• ๋งŒํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์œผ๋ฉด,
10:10
what people do is they click "done"
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'์™„๋ฃŒ' ๋ฒ„ํŠผ์„ ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๋˜๊ณ ,
10:12
and the markers begin to disappear,
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๋Š๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ, ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜์”ฉ
10:14
slowly, one by one.
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ํ‘œ์‹œ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
10:16
It simulates what it is like to invest in something
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์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€์— ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ทธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ „๊ฐœ๋ผ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
10:18
and to watch that investment pan out.
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
At the end, there will only be one marker left standing
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์—๋Š”, ํ‘œ์‹œ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ์ด ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ณ ,
10:24
and it will determine our wealth in retirement.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์€ํ‡ด ์ค‘์˜ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:27
Yes, this person retired
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๋„ค, ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ์ผํ•  ๋•Œ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ž…์˜
10:29
at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.
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150%๋กœ ์€ํ‡ดํ•˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:33
They're making more money while retired
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ผํ•  ๋•Œ ๋ฒŒ์€ ๋ˆ๋ณด๋‹ค
10:35
than they were making while they were working.
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์€ํ‡ด๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ์— ๋ˆ์„ ๋” ๋ฒ„๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
If you're like most people,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:39
just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --
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์€ํ‡ดํ•˜๊ณ ์„œ 50% ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋ˆ์„ ๋ฒŒ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„
10:43
just to think about making
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋„
10:45
50 percent more money in retirement than before.
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„์ด๋‚˜๋งˆ ๊ธฐ์จ๊ณผ ๋“ค๋œฌ ํ–‰๋ณต๊ฐ์— ์ –์œผ์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:48
However, had you ended up on the very bottom,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ฐ‘๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์— ๋๋‚˜๋ฒ„๋ ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:50
it might have given you a slight sense
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ณตํฌ์™€ ๋งค์Šค๊บผ์›€์ด
10:52
of dread and/or nausea
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์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์„์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฒ ๋„ค์š”.
10:54
thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.
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์€ํ‡ด ํ›„ ์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ชธ๋ถ€๋ฆผ์น˜๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
10:58
By using this tool over and over
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์ด ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๋˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ 
11:00
and simulating outcome after outcome,
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ๋“ญํ•ด ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉฐ
11:03
people can understand
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž๋‚˜ ์ €์ถ•์ด
11:05
that the investments and savings that they undertake today
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
11:08
determine their well-being in the future.
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์ดํ•ดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:10
Now people are motivated through emotions,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ์ •์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋™๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์—ฌ๋˜์ง€๋งŒ,
11:13
but different people find different things motivating.
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๊ฐ๊ฐ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ์ž ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:16
This is a simulation
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”ฝ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•œ
11:19
that uses graphics,
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์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์ด์ง€๋งŒ
11:21
but other people find motivating what money can buy,
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœ ์ˆซ์ž๋“ค์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
11:23
not just numbers.
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๋ˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์‚ด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์—์„œ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:25
So here I made a distribution builder
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ„ํฌ ์ƒ์„ฑ๊ธฐ(Distribuition Builder)๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
11:27
where instead of showing numerical outcomes,
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์ˆ˜์น˜์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹ ์—,
11:30
I show people what those outcomes will get you,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ 3000๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, 2500๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ,
11:33
in particular apartments that you can afford
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2000๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋“ฑ๋“ฑ์— ์€ํ‡ดํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
11:35
if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์‚ด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์•„ํŒŒํŠธ๋“ค์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋ฉด์„œ
11:38
2,000 dollars per month and so on.
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๋‹ค ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:41
As you move down the ladder of apartments,
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์•„ํŒŒํŠธ์˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ€๋ฉด ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก,
11:43
you see that they get worse and worse.
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์ ์  ๋” ์ข‹์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์•„ํŒŒํŠธ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:46
Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.
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์ € ์ค‘ ๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ๋Š” ๋งˆ์น˜ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€ํ•™์›์ƒ์ด์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ์— ์‚ด์•˜๋˜ ์ง‘๋“ค ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์•„์ฃผ ๋ฐ‘๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก,
11:54
you're faced with the unfortunate reality
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์€ํ‡ด๋ฅผ ์ค€๋น„ํ•ด ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ €๊ธˆํ•ด ๋†“์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด,
11:56
that if you don't save anything for retirement,
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์–ด๋– ํ•œ ์ง‘๋„ ๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š”
11:58
you won't be able to afford any housing at all.
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๋ถˆํŽธํ•œ ํ˜„์‹ค๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:01
Those are actual pictures of actual apartments
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์ € ์‚ฌ์ง„๋“ค์€ ์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์—์„œ
12:03
renting for that amount
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์ € ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ๊ด‘๊ณ ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
12:05
as advertised on the Internet.
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์‹ค์ œ ์•„ํŒŒํŠธ๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ์‚ฌ์ง„๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:07
The last thing I'll show you,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ ๋‹น์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์—ฌ๋“œ๋ฆด ๊ฒƒ์€,
12:09
the last behavioral time machine,
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ 'ํ–‰๋™์  ํƒ€์ž„ ๋จธ์‹ '์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:11
is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,
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ํ•  ํ—์‹œํ•„๋“œ(Hal Hershfield)์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ œ์ž‘ํ•˜์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ,
12:14
who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,
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๊ทธ ์ „ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ณต๋™ ์ง‘ํ•„์ž,
12:17
Bill Sharpe.
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๋นŒ ์ƒคํŽ˜(Bill Sharpe)๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์†Œ๊ฐœ๋ฐ›์€ ๋ถ„์ด์ง€์š”.
12:19
And what it is
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์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉด
12:21
is an exploration into virtual reality.
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๊ฐ€์ƒ ํ˜„์‹ค๋กœ์˜ ํƒํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures of people --
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์‚ฌ์ง„์„ ์ฐ์–ด์„œ--
12:26
in this case, college-age people --
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ๋Š”, ๋Œ€ํ•™์ƒ ๋‚˜์ด ์ •๋„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ--
12:28
and we use software to age them
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด 60, 70, 80์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
12:30
and show these people what they'll look like
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์–ด๋–ค ๋ชจ์Šต์ผ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.
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๋‚˜์ด๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด์ด๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:35
And we try to test
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ์–ผ๊ตด์„
12:37
whether actually assisting your imagination
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๋ณด๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์คŒ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์ƒ์ƒ์„ ๋„์™€์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
12:40
by looking at the face of your future self
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๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ํˆฌ์ž ํ–‰์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ
12:42
can change you investment behavior.
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์‹œํ—˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
12:44
So this is one of our experiments.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ, ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:47
Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์™ผ์ชฝ์— ์ Š์€ ๋Œ€์ƒ์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต์ด ๋ณด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:50
He's given a control
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๊ทธ์˜ ์ €์ถ• ๋น„์œจ์„ ์กฐ์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
12:52
that allows him to adjust his savings rate.
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ํ†ต์ œ๊ถŒ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:54
As he moves his savings rate down,
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ €์ถ• ๋น„์œจ์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ์›€์ง์ž„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ,
12:56
it means that he's saving zero
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์™ผ์ชฝ ๋์— ์žˆ๊ฒŒ๋˜๊ณ 
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์Œ์„ ๋œปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:00
You can see his current annual income --
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๊ทธ์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ ์—ฐ ์ˆ˜์ž…์ด ๋ณด์ด์‹œ๋‚˜์š” --
13:02
this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ง‘์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” --
13:05
is quite high, 91 percent,
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๋ด‰๊ธ‰์˜ ๋ฐฑ๋ถ„์œจ์ธ๋ฐ, 91%๋กœ ๊ฝค ๋†’์ง€๋งŒ
13:07
but his retirement income is quite low.
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์€ํ‡ด ํ›„ ์ˆ˜์ž…์€ ๋งค์šฐ ๋‚ฎ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:09
He's going to retire on 44 percent
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ผํ•  ๋™์•ˆ์— ๋ฒŒ์—ˆ๋˜
13:11
of what he earned while he was working.
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์ˆ˜์ž…์˜ 44%๋กœ ์€ํ‡ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ๋„ค์š”.
13:14
If he saves the maximum legal amount,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ํ•œ์˜ ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•์ ์ธ ์–‘์„ ์ €์ถ•ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:17
his retirement income goes up,
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์€ํ‡ด ํ›„ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋„ ์˜ค๋ฅด๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ,
13:19
but he's unhappy
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ์ฃ .
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.
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์™ผ์ชฝ์— ๋ณด์ด๋Š”, ํ˜„์žฌ ์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์–‘์˜ ๋ˆ์ด ์ค„์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:25
Other conditions show people the future self.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์กฐ๊ฑด๋“ค ์—ญ์‹œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž๊ธฐ ๋ชจ์Šต์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:28
And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:31
If you save very little,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์•„์ฃผ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ์ €์ถ•ํ•˜์‹ ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:33
the future self is unhappy
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ž…์˜ 44%๋กœ ์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๋ฉฐ
13:35
living on 44 percent of the income.
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•ด ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:38
Whereas if the present self saves a lot,
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๋ฐ˜๋ฉด์— ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์ž์‹ ์ด ์ €์ถ•์„ ๋งŽ์ด ํ•˜๋ฉด,
13:41
the future self is delighted,
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์ˆ˜์ž…์˜ 100%์— ๊ฐ€๊น๊ฒŒ ์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๋ฉฐ
13:43
where the income is close up near 100 percent.
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์€ ๊ธฐ๋ปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:46
To bring this to a wider audience,
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์ข€ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋Œ€์ค‘์—๊ฒŒ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด,
13:49
I've been working with Hal and Allianz
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์ €๋Š” ํ• (Hal)๊ณผ ์•Œ๋ฆฌ์•ˆ์ฆˆ(Allianz)์™€ ๊ณต๋™์œผ๋กœ,
13:52
to create something we call the behavioral time machine,
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๊ทธ์ € ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต์„ ๋ณผ ๋ฟ๋งŒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
13:55
in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,
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์€ํ‡ด ํ›„ ๊ฐ์ž ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€์˜ ์ •๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
13:58
but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions
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์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ์ •์  ๋ฐ˜์‘๋“ค์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”,
14:01
to different levels of retirement wealth.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ–‰๋™ ํƒ€์ž„๋จธ์‹ ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐ™์ด ์ผํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:04
So for instance,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด,
14:06
here is somebody using the tool.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ํ–‰๋™ ํƒ€์ž„๋จธ์‹ ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:08
And just watch the facial expressions
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์Šฌ๋ผ์ด๋”๋ฅผ ์›€์ง์ผ ๋•Œ์˜
14:10
as they move the slider.
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ํ‘œ์ •์„ ๋ด ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”.
14:12
The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.
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์ Š์€ ์–ผ๊ตด์€ ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ €๊ธˆํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ ์  ํ–‰๋ณตํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:14
The older face is miserable.
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๋‚˜์ด ๋“  ์–ผ๊ตด์€ ๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•ด๋ณด์ด๋„ค์š”.
14:16
And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.
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์„œ์„œํžˆ ์ ๋‹น๋Ÿ‰์˜ ์ €์ถ• ๋น„์œจ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋†’์€ ์ €์ถ• ๋น„์œจ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:20
The younger face is getting unhappy.
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์ Š์€ ์–ผ๊ตด์€ ์ ์  ๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋„ค์š”.
14:22
The older face is quite pleased
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๋‚˜์ด ๋“  ์–ผ๊ตด์€ ์ด ๊ฒฐ์ •์—
14:24
with the decision.
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๋งค์šฐ ๋งŒ์กฑํ•ด ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ํ–‰๋™์— ์–ด๋–ค ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์˜ˆ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:29
And what's nice about it
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์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์ด ๋˜ ์ข‹์€ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
14:31
is it's not something that biasing people actually,
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ํ•œ ์–ผ๊ตด์ด ์›ƒ๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ผ๊ตด์€
14:34
because as one face smiles,
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์ฐŒํ‘ธ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—, ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
14:36
the other face frowns.
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ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์„ ์‹ฌ์–ด ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:38
It's not telling you which way to put the slider,
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๋‹น์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ์Šฌ๋ผ์ด๋”๋ฅผ
14:40
it's just reminding you that you are
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์–ด๋””์— ๋†“์œผ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
14:43
connected to and legally tied to
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์ž์‹ ๊ณผ
14:45
this future self.
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์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ƒ๊ธฐ์‹œ์ผœ์ค„ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:47
Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.
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์˜ค๋Š˜์˜ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๋ณต์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:50
And that's something that's easy to forget.
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์žŠ์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์‰ฝ์ง€์š”.
14:53
This use of virtual reality
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์ด ๊ฐ€์ƒ ํ˜„์‹ค์€ ์ด์šฉ์€
14:56
is not just good for making people look older.
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ๋‚˜์ด ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด์ด๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ์—๋งŒ ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:58
There are programs you can get
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ํก์—ฐ์„ ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ๊ณผ๋„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํƒœ์–‘๋น›์— ๋…ธ์ถœ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
15:00
to see how people might look
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์‚ด์ด ์ฐŒ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„
15:02
if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ ์ง€
15:05
if they gain weight and so on.
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๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š” ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:07
And what's good is,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ข‹์€ ์ ์€,
15:09
unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,
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ํ• (Hal)๊ณผ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฃจ์Šค ์Šค๋ฏธ์Šค(Russ Smith)์™€ ํ–ˆ๋˜ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ,
15:12
you don't have to program these by yourself
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๊ฐ€์ƒ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
15:14
in order to see the virtual reality.
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์ง์ ‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋ฐํ•˜์‹œ์ง€ ์•Š์œผ์…”๋„ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ง€์š”.
15:17
There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars
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์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ์— ๋ช‡ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„๋กœ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„
15:20
that do the same thing.
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์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ์–ดํ”Œ๋ฆฌ์ผ€์ด์…˜(์•ฑ)์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:22
This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.
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์‹ค์ œ ๊ณต๋™์ง‘ํ•„์ž ํ• (Hal)์˜ ์‚ฌ์ง„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:24
You might recognize him from the previous demos.
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์˜ˆ์ „์˜ ์‹œ๋ฒ”์šฉ ์ œํ’ˆ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด์…จ์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋„ค์š”.
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์žฌ๋ฏธ๋กœ ๊ทธ์˜ ์‚ฌ์ง„์„ ๋จธ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ—๊ฒจ์ง€๊ณ ,
15:30
through the balding, aging and weight gain software
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๋‚˜์ด๊ฐ€ ๋“ค๊ณ , ์‚ด์ด ์ช„ ๋ณด์ด๊ฒŒํ•˜๋Š” ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด์— ๋„ฃ์–ด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:33
to see how he would look.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์ผ๊นŒ ํ•ด์„œ์š”.
15:35
Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself
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ํ• (Hal)์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ „ํ•ด์•ผํ•  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”. ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์‚ฌ์ง„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜คํ•ด๋„ ํ’€์–ด์•ผํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
15:38
to disabuse you of that last image.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋งŒ ๋งˆ์น˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
On behalf of Hal and myself,
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์ œ ์ž์‹ ๊ณผ ํ• (Hal)์„ ๋Œ€์‹ ํ•˜์—ฌ,
15:46
I wish all the best to your present and future selves.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์˜ ํ˜„์žฌ์™€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ๋ชจ์Šต๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ํ–‰์šด์„ ๋น•๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:48
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:50
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜ ์†Œ๋ฆฌ)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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