Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

翻译人员: Chunxiang Qian 校对人员: Felix Chen

Do you remember the story

还记不记得

of Odysseus and the Sirens

高中或是初中时

from high school or junior high school?

奧德修斯和塞壬的故事？

There was this hero, Odysseus, who's heading back home

有这么个英雄，奧德修斯

after the Trojan War.

从特洛伊战争返回

And he's standing on the deck of his ship,

他站在战船的甲板上

he's talking to his first mate,

和大副说着话

and he's saying,

他说：

"Tomorrow, we will sail past those rocks,

“明天我们驶过那些岩石

and on those rocks sit some beautiful women

岩石上会坐者一群美女

called Sirens.

她们是塞壬

And these women sing an enchanting song,

她们会唱首摄人心魄的歌

a song so alluring

会令

that all sailors who hear it

听到歌声的水手着迷

crash into the rocks and die."

船撞上岩石而亡

Now you would expect, given that,

你会想 既然如此

that they would choose an alternate route around the Sirens,

他们应该另找一条航线避开塞壬

but instead Odysseus says,

但是奧德修斯说

"I want to hear that song.

”我想听到那首歌

And so what I'm going to do

我会用蜡

is I'm going to pour wax in the ears

把你和其他所有人的

of you and all the men --

耳朵

stay with me --

都封上－

so that you can't hear the song,

这样你们就听不见这歌了

and then I'm going to have you tie me to the mast

你们把我绑在桅杆上

so that I can listen

这样我就能听到歌

and we can all sail by unaffected."

并且航行不受影响

So this is a captain

这个船长

putting the life of every single person on the ship at risk

置全船人的危险于不顾

so that he can hear a song.

就为了自己听首歌

And I'd like to think if this was the case,

我想要是这种状况

they probably would have rehearsed it a few times.

他们应该事先练习几次

Odysseus would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.

奧德修斯会说：“好，我们试试。

You tie me to the mast, and I'm going to beg and plead.

你把我绑在桅杆上，我怎么央求

And no matter what I say, you cannot untie me from the mast.

不管说什么你都不要解开绳子

All right, so tie me to the mast."

好，现在把我绑上桅杆吧。”

And the first mate takes a rope

大副取了绳子

and ties Odysseus to the mast in a nice knot.

把奧德修斯牢牢绑在桅杆上

And Odysseus does his best job playacting

奧德修斯拼命假装求情

and says, "Untie me. Untie me.

说：“放开我吧。放开我吧。

I want to hear that song. Untie me."

我想听那首歌。放开我吧。”

And the first mate wisely resists

大副会很明智地拒绝

and doesn't untie Odysseus.

不会解开奧德修斯

And then Odysseus says, "I see that you can get it.

然后奧德修斯说；“好，你能胜任这个任务。

All right, untie me now and we'll get some dinner."

好，解开我咱们吃晚饭去。”

And the first mate hesitates.

大副迟疑了

He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal,

“我们还在练习呢

or should I untie him?"

还是我就解开绳子呢？”

And the first mate thinks,

大副想

"Well, I guess at some point the rehearsal has to end."

“好吧，排练总有结束的时候”

So he unties Odysseus, and Odysseus flips out.

他解开奧德修斯，但是奧德修斯大发雷霆

He's like, "You idiot. You moron.

“你个蠢货，你个白痴。

If you do that tomorrow, I'll be dead, you'll be dead,

明天你要这么干，我们都死定了

every single one of the men will be dead.

每个人都死定了

Now just don't untie me no matter what."

不管我说什么都不能解开！”

He throws the first mate to the ground.

他把大副摔倒在地

This repeats itself through the night --

他们就这么折腾了一夜－

rehearsal, tying to the mast,

排练，绑在桅杆上

conning his way out of it,

哄大副解开绳子

beating the poor first mate up mercilessly.

毫不留情地殴打大副

Hilarity ensues.

闹剧就来了

Tying yourself to a mast

把自己绑到桅杆上

is perhaps the oldest written example

大概是最早的

of what psychologists call a commitment device.

心理学家称为承诺手段的书面记录了

A commitment device is a decision that you make

承诺手段是你在冷静状态下

with a cool head to bind yourself

做出的决定来约束自己

so that you don't do something regrettable

以防在冲动之下

when you have a hot head.

做出事后后悔的事情

Because there's two heads inside one person

你想想，人内心

when you think about it.

有两种状态

Scholars have long invoked this metaphor of two selves

当涉及到诱惑的问题时

when it comes to questions of temptation.

学者们早就用了两个自我的比喻

There is first, the present self.

第一是当下的自我

This is like Odysseus when he's hearing the song.

就象是奥德修斯 他一听到这歌

He just wants to get to the front row.

就想去前排占个好位子

He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate gratification.

只想着此时此刻和当下的满足

But then there's this other self, the future self.

但是另一个自我，未来的自我

This is Odysseus as an old man

作为一个老人的奥德修斯

who wants nothing more than to retire in a sunny villa

他只想在远离伊萨卡的别墅里

with his wife Penelope

和妻子佩罗普过退休生活

outside of Ithaca -- the other one.

这是另一个自我

So why do we need commitment devices?

那么为什么我们需要承诺手段呢？

Well resisting temptation is hard,

因为诱惑难以抗拒

as the 19th century English economist

19世纪的英国经济学家

Nassau William Senior said,

老纳索威廉姆说

"To abstain from the enjoyment which is in our power,

“放弃我们能得到的享受

or to seek distant rather than immediate results,

或者追寻遥远而不是眼下的结果

are among the most painful exertions

是人类意志中

of the human will."

最痛苦的事情之一。”

If you set goals for yourself and you're like a lot of other people,

如果你为自己设定目标，并且你跟普通人一样

you probably realize

也许你会意识到

it's not that your goals are physically impossible

不是定的目标高不可攀

that's keeping you from achieving them,

而是缺乏自律

it's that you lack the self-discipline to stick to them.

去坚持下来

It's physically possible to lose weight.

减肥是现实可行的

It's physically possible to exercise more.

增加运动是现实可行的

But resisting temptation

但是抵抗诱惑

is hard.

很难

The other reason

另一个

that it's difficult to resist temptation

难以抵抗诱惑的原因是

is because it's an unequal battle

当下的自我和未来的自我之间

between the present self and the future self.

不平等的战争

I mean, let's face it, the present self is present.

当下的自我活在现在

It's in control. It's in power right now.

控制一些

It has these strong, heroic arms

这个自我有强大英勇的胳膊

that can lift doughnuts into your mouth.

抓起甜甜圈送到嘴里去

And the future self is not even around.

而未来的自我都不在场

It's off in the future. It's weak.

它还在远远的未来，没什么力量

It doesn't even have a lawyer present.

它连律师都不在场

There's nobody to stick up for the future self.

没人会为了未来自我而争辩

And so the present self can trounce

所以当下的自我可以击败

all over its dreams.

未来的所有梦想

So there's this battle between the two selves that's being fought,

所以在这两个斗争的自我之间

and we need commitment devices

要有承诺手段

to level the playing field between the two.

来平衡二者的力量

Now I'm a big fan of commitment devices actually.

我很拥护承诺设备

Tying yourself to the mast is the oldest one, but there are other ones

把自己绑到桅杆上是最古老的一个例子，还有其他的

such as locking a credit card away with a key

把信用卡锁起来

or not bringing junk food into the house so you won't eat it

不把垃圾食品带回家而减少摄入

or unplugging your Internet connection

断网

so you can use your computer.

来保证使用电脑

I was creating commitment devices of my own

在我自己知道承诺手段之前

long before I knew what they were.

我就在创造他们了

So when I was a starving post-doc

当我还是哥伦比亚大学的

at Columbia University,

苦逼博士后时

I was deep in a publish-or-perish phase of my career.

我还在“发表（论文）或淘汰”中挣扎

I had to write five pages a day

我得为了文章

towards papers

一天写五页

or I would have to give up five dollars.

不然就得丢掉5块钱

And when you try to execute these commitment devices,

当你得执行这些承诺手段的时候

you realize the devil is really in the details.

你就意识到了执行的细节太邪恶了

Because it's not that easy to get rid of five dollars.

因为要丢掉五块钱不那么容易

I mean, you can't burn it; that's illegal.

你不能烧了，那是犯法

And I thought, well I could give it to a charity

我想 我可以捐给慈善机构

or give it to my wife or something like that.

或者给我老婆，等等

But then I thought, oh, I'm sending myself mixed messages.

但是转念一想，我这是在混淆视线

Because not writing is bad, but giving to charity is good.

因为不写作是坏事，但慈善是好事

So then I would kind of justify not writing

这样赠予就把不写作

by giving a gift.

变得合理了

And then I kind of flipped that around and thought,

然后我想了想

well I could give it to the neo-Nazis.

我可以把它给新纳粹分子

But then I was like, that's more bad than writing is good,

但是，这比不写作更坏

and so that wouldn't work.

所以这个方法行不通

So ultimately, I just decided

最后我决定

I would leave it in an envelope on the subway.

我把它放进信封留到地铁上

Sometimes a good person would find it,

有时候是好人捡到

sometimes a bad person would find it.

有时候是坏人捡到

On average, it was just a completely pointless exchange of money

总的来说 只是没有意义的但是我会后悔的

that I would regret.

丢钱行为

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Such it is with commitment devices.

这就是承诺手段

But despite my like for them,

虽然我很喜欢它

there's two nagging concerns

但是对于承诺手段

that I've always had about commitment devices,

我仍有两个顾虑

and you might feel this if you use them yourself.

在使用的时候可能会感受到

So the first is,

首先就是

when you've got one of these devices going,

当你使用这些手段的时候

such as this contract to write everyday or pay,

比如说不写就付钱

it's just a constant reminder

这只是会不断地提醒自己

that you have no self-control.

没有自控能力

You're just telling yourself, "Without you, commitment device,

你只是在告诉自己，“没有承诺手段，

I am nothing, I have no self-discipline."

你会一事无成，你不能自律。”

And then when you're ever in a situation

这样在一个

where you don't have a commitment device in place --

没有承诺手段的情况下－

like, "Oh my God, that person's offering me a doughnut,

比如“天哪，那家伙要给我一个甜甜圈

and I have no defense mechanism," --

我可没有防御机制”

you just eat it.

你就给吃了

So I don't like the way that they take the power away from you.

所以我不喜欢承诺手段让我们失去能力

I think self-discipline is something, it's like a muscle.

我想自律就象是肌肉

The more you exercise it, the stronger it gets.

锻炼越多就越强壮

The other problem with commitment devices

承诺手段的另一个问题就是

is that you can always weasel your way out of them.

你可以很容易耍滑头就逃过

You say, "Well, of course I can't write today,

你说：“哎呀，今天写不了啦

because I'm giving a TEDTalk and I have five media interviews,

我有个TED演讲，还得接受5个媒体访问

and then I'm going to a cocktail party and then I'll be drunk after that.

然后得去个鸡尾酒晚会 然后我肯定就喝醉了

And so there's no way that this is going to work."

所以我今天肯定写不了。”

So in effect, you are like Odysseus and the first mate

这样一来，你就象奥德修斯和大副

in one person.

二者合一

You're putting yourself, you're binding yourself,

你把自己绑起来

and you're weaseling your way out of it,

然后耍个手段逃脱了

and then you're beating yourself up afterwards.

然后事后就痛打自己

So I've been working

为了寻找

for about a decade now

承诺手段之外的方法

on finding other ways

来改善人们

to change people's relationship to the future self

与未来自我的关系

without using commitment devices.

我努力了近十年

In particular, I'm interested in the relationship

特别地，我对财政意义上的

to the future financial self.

未来自我关系感兴趣

And this is a timely issue.

这是时间跨度的话题

I'm talking about the topic of saving.

我要说的是就是储蓄

Now saving is a classic two selves problem.

储蓄是个典型的两个自我的问题

The present self does not want to save at all.

当下的自我完全不想储蓄

It wants to consume.

它要消费

Whereas the future self wants the present self to save.

但是未来的自我要现在的自我储蓄

So this is a timely problem.

所以这是个时间跨度的问题

We look at the savings rate

看看储蓄率

and it has been declining since the 1950s.

自50年代以来一直下跌

At the same time, the Retirement Risk Index,

同时，退休风险指数

the chance of not being able to meet your needs in retirement,

－在退休时无法有足够的积累

has been increasing.

一直在上升

And we're at a situation now

我们现在的状况是

where for every three baby boomers,

按照麦肯锡全球研究中心预计

the McKinsey Global Institute predicts

婴儿潮的人群里

that two will not be able to meet their pre-retirement needs

每三个就有两个无法完成退休前

while they're in retirement.

为退休生活的积累

So what can we do about this?

我们能做些什么呢？

There's a philosopher, Derek Parfit,

有个哲学家 德瑞克巴菲特

who said some words that were inspiring to my coauthors and I.

他说了一些话对我和我的合作者很有启发

He said that, "We might neglect our future selves

他说：“我们忽视未来自我

because of some failure of belief or imagination."

是因为没有信念或缺乏想像。”

That is to say,

也就是说

we somehow might not believe that we're going to get old,

我们不知怎么的不相信自己会变老

or we might not be able to imagine

或者我们没法想像

that we're going to get old some day.

有天我们会变老

On the one hand, it sounds ridiculous.

一方面这听起来很可笑

Of course, we know that we're going to get old.

当然我们知道自己会变老

But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same time?

但是有没有可能有些东西我们相信的同时又不相信呢？

So my coauthors and I have used computers,

我和我的合作者用电脑

the greatest tool of our time,

这个时代最伟大的工具

to assist people's imagination

来帮助人们想像

and help them imagine what it might be like

想像未来可能的

to go into the future.

样子

And I'll show you some of these tools right here.

在这儿我会展示几个

The first is called the distribution builder.

第一个是“分配生成器”

It shows people what the future might be like

可以向人们展示未来可能的状况

by showing them a hundred equally probable outcomes

它能显示你未来可能取得的

that might be obtained in the future.

一百种同等概率的结果

Each outcome is shown by one of these markers,

每一种结果都用这些记号来表示

and each sits on a row

各排上的每一个单位

that represents a level of wealth and retirement.

代表一定程度的财富和退休期

Being up at the top

位置越高

means that you're enjoying a high income in retirement.

也就意味着你可以享受富足的晚年

Being down at the bottom

越往下

means that you're struggling to make ends meet.

也就是你得努力糊口

When you make an investment,

如果你进行投资

what you're really saying is, "I accept

如果说你承认

that any one of these 100 things

这一百件事

could happen to me and determine my wealth."

有可能发生在自己身上并最终决定我的财富

Now you can try to move your outcomes around.

你就可以把收入进行分配了

You can try to manipulate your fate, like this person is doing,

你可以象这个人一样修改你的命运

but it costs you something to do it.

但是是有代价的

It means that you have to save more today.

也就是说你得在现在储蓄更多

Once you find an investment that you're happy with,

一旦发现了一个感兴趣的投资

what people do is they click "done"

你就点击“完成”

and the markers begin to disappear,

然后这些记号慢慢得

slowly, one by one.

一个接一个消失

It simulates what it is like to invest in something

这就象是投资了什么

and to watch that investment pan out.

然后坐收红利一样

At the end, there will only be one marker left standing

最后将只有一个标记剩下来

and it will determine our wealth in retirement.

这就决定了退休时的财富

Yes, this person retired

这个人

at 150 percent of their working income in retirement.

在退休时能有工作收入的百分之一百五十的入帐

They're making more money while retired

他们退休了比工作的时候

than they were making while they were working.

挣的钱还要多

If you're like most people,

大多数人

just seeing that gave you a small sense of elation and joy --

看到这都会有点喜不自禁

just to think about making

一想到自己退休了

50 percent more money in retirement than before.

能比工作的时候还多挣百分之五十

However, had you ended up on the very bottom,

但是 如果最后的结果是在底部

it might have given you a slight sense

这应该会让你有点

of dread and/or nausea

担心或者不寒而栗

thinking about struggling to get by in retirement.

一想到退休了还得挣扎过活的话

By using this tool over and over

通过不停地使用这个工具

and simulating outcome after outcome,

来预测未来的结果

people can understand

人们能够意识到

that the investments and savings that they undertake today

今天进行的储蓄决定了

determine their well-being in the future.

明天的生活质量

Now people are motivated through emotions,

人们常受情绪而激发

but different people find different things motivating.

但是激发每个人的事物却往往不一样

This is a simulation

这个工具

that uses graphics,

使用了图片

but other people find motivating what money can buy,

很多人不大受代表钱的数字而影响

not just numbers.

但是钱能买到的东西可以

So here I made a distribution builder

这个分配生成器

where instead of showing numerical outcomes,

显示的不是数字

I show people what those outcomes will get you,

而是具体你能买到的东西

in particular apartments that you can afford

比如 你的每个月的退休金能有

if you're retiring on 3,000, 2,500,

三千，两千五，两千的话

2,000 dollars per month and so on.

这是你买得起的公寓

As you move down the ladder of apartments,

随着排名的下降

you see that they get worse and worse.

能看出来质量越来越差

Some of them look like places I lived in as a graduate student.

有一些看上去象我作为研究生的时候住过的地方

And as you get to the very bottom,

而最底下

you're faced with the unfortunate reality

如果你退休的时候一无所有

that if you don't save anything for retirement,

那就得面对老无所居的

you won't be able to afford any housing at all.

残酷现实

Those are actual pictures of actual apartments

这些照片拍的

renting for that amount

都是对应价格的

as advertised on the Internet.

网上实际在售的公寓

The last thing I'll show you,

最后一个我想展示的

the last behavioral time machine,

行为时光机器

is something that I created with Hal Hershfield,

是我和哈尔赫施费尔德共同开发的

who was introduced to me by my coauthor on a previous project,

他是从一个之前项目加入我称为合作者的

Bill Sharpe.

也就是“Bill Sharpe”

And what it is

这个工具

is an exploration into virtual reality.

提供具象的现实

So what we do is we take pictures of people --

我们拍下用户的照片－

in this case, college-age people --

这个是大学生－

and we use software to age them

然后我们用软件模拟衰老

and show these people what they'll look like

看看当他们六七八十岁的时候

when they're 60, 70, 80 years old.

是什么样子

And we try to test

我们试着测试

whether actually assisting your imagination

如果帮助你想像

by looking at the face of your future self

将来的自己的样子

can change you investment behavior.

能不能改变投资行为

So this is one of our experiments.

这是我们的一个试验

Here we see the face of the young subject on the left.

左边是我们测试对象的年轻的脸

He's given a control

他可以

that allows him to adjust his savings rate.

调控自己的储蓄率

As he moves his savings rate down,

当他的储蓄率降低

it means that he's saving zero

指针在最左边

when it's all the way here at the left.

意味着储蓄为零

You can see his current annual income --

他目前的年收入－

this is the percentage of his paycheck that he can take home today --

现在他每天能拿到手的钱很多

is quite high, 91 percent,

百分之九十一

but his retirement income is quite low.

但是退休金会很低

He's going to retire on 44 percent

他的退休金只有工作时

of what he earned while he was working.

薪水的百分之四十四

If he saves the maximum legal amount,

如果现在提高到法定的储蓄上限

his retirement income goes up,

他的退休金就上升

but he's unhappy

但是他现在

because now he has less money on the left-hand side to spend today.

就无钱可花而会过得不快乐

Other conditions show people the future self.

还有其他的状况来展现未来的情形

And from the future self's point of view, everything is in reverse.

从未来的角度来看，一切都是相反的

If you save very little,

如果储蓄很少

the future self is unhappy

未来靠收入的百分之四十

living on 44 percent of the income.

生活就会很不爽快

Whereas if the present self saves a lot,

如果现在多储蓄一点

the future self is delighted,

未来就会好过很多

where the income is close up near 100 percent.

因为退休金几乎和工作的收入一样多

To bring this to a wider audience,

为了推广这个概念

I've been working with Hal and Allianz

我和哈尔以及安莲兹

to create something we call the behavioral time machine,

开发出了行为学时间机器

in which you not only get to see yourself in the future,

这个软件不仅让你看到未来

but you get to see anticipated emotional reactions

也可以看到你未来会根据退休收入的不同

to different levels of retirement wealth.

而有各种层次的情绪反应

So for instance,

比如说

here is somebody using the tool.

有人用这个工具

And just watch the facial expressions

移动光标

as they move the slider.

查看面部表情

The younger face gets happier and happier, saving nothing.

年轻的脸越来越开心，但没有零星储蓄

The older face is miserable.

而老年的年就愁容满面

And slowly, slowly we're bringing it up to a moderate savings rate.

如果转换到中等的储蓄率

And then it's a high savings rate.

然后是高储蓄率

The younger face is getting unhappy.

年轻时候的脸笑容越来越淡

The older face is quite pleased

年老的脸则随之

with the decision.

变的开心

We're going to see if this has an effect on what people do.

我们以此来看看人们是否会对此反应

And what's nice about it

它的好处是

is it's not something that biasing people actually,

它并不会左右人们的想法

because as one face smiles,

因为一侧的脸在笑

the other face frowns.

而另一侧脸就在愁

It's not telling you which way to put the slider,

它并不指手画脚说选择哪一边

it's just reminding you that you are

只是提醒你

connected to and legally tied to

对自己的未来负责的人

this future self.

就是自己

Your decisions today are going to determine its well-being.

你现在的选择就决定了将来的生活

And that's something that's easy to forget.

而这一点是我们很容易忘记的

This use of virtual reality

这种可视化现实

is not just good for making people look older.

不仅能显示年老的样子

There are programs you can get

还可以看看

to see how people might look

如果抽烟

if they smoke, if they get too much exposure to the sun,

暴晒、或者增肥的话

if they gain weight and so on.

将来会是什么样子

And what's good is,

它的好处是

unlike in the experiments that Hal and myself ran with Russ Smith,

我、哈尔和罗斯･史密斯的试验得自己写程序

you don't have to program these by yourself

你可以不用这么大费周章

in order to see the virtual reality.

想看到未来

There are applications you can get on smartphones for just a few dollars

只要用智能手机下载几美元的应用程度

that do the same thing.

就可以了

This is actually a picture of Hal, my coauthor.

这是我的合作者哈尔的照片

You might recognize him from the previous demos.

也许能从之前的演示里认出他来

And just for kicks we ran his picture

我们把他的照片弄来恶搞

through the balding, aging and weight gain software

用软件看看要是他秃顶、老了还变胖了

to see how he would look.

会是个什么样子

Hal is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself

哈尔也在场，所以为了他，也为了在场各位观众

to disabuse you of that last image.

我就不再滥用这个照片了

And I'll close it there.

今天就到这里结束

On behalf of Hal and myself,

我代表哈尔和自己

I wish all the best to your present and future selves.

给各位和将来的各位最好的祝福

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）