What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | David Heymann

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2020-03-05・ 7753    355


Visit http://TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more. What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus? Who's most at risk? How can you protect yourself? Public health expert David Heymann, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, shares the latest findings about COVID-19 and what the future may hold. Recorded February 27, 2020 The TED Talks channel features the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. You're welcome to link to or embed these videos, forward them to others and share these ideas with people you know. For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), submit a Media Request here: http://media-requests.TED.com Follow TED on Twitter: http://twitter.com/TEDTalks Like TED on Facebook: http://facebook.com/TED Subscribe to our channel: http://youtube.com/TED

Instruction

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Translator: Noelia Collazo Boullosa Reviewer: Mario Cal
00:12
[As of the morning February 27, 2020,
[A día 27 de febreiro de 2020
confirmáronse polo menos 82 000 casos de coronavirus en todo o mundo
00:14
there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus
e 2 810 mortes por este.
00:17
and 2,810 deaths from it.
TED convidou o Dr. David Heymann para informar dos últimos descubrimentos.]
00:19
TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]
00:22
[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]
[Que ocorre se te infectas co coronavirus?]
00:25
This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold,
Para a maioría da xente
trátase dunha enfermidade leve, como un arrefriado común.
00:28
in the majority of people.
00:30
There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness;
Pero existe certa xente que se contaxia e pode padecer unha enfermidade moi grave,
00:34
among them are health workers.
entre eles, o persoal sanitario.
00:36
It's a very serious infection in them,
Neles, o contaxio é moi perigoso
xa que reciben unha dose maior que calquera persoa
00:38
as they get a higher dose than normal people,
00:40
and at the same time, they have no immunity.
e á vez non teñen inmunidade.
00:42
So in the general population,
Polo tanto, é probable que a poboación xeral
00:46
it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected
reciba unha dose de virus moito máis baixa cando se contaxia
00:51
is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive,
que calquera traballador sanitario,
00:54
health workers having more serious infections.
polo que estes padecerán infeccións máis graves.
00:56
So your infection would be less serious, hopefully.
Así que, con sorte, o teu contaxio non será tan perigoso.
00:59
So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities
Así que debemos asegurarnos de que as persoas maiores
01:03
to really be the ones that we have to make sure
e aquelas con comorbididades
01:05
are taken care of in hospitals.
sexan atendidas nos hospitais.
01:07
[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]
[Quen debería estar máis preocupado por este tema?]
01:12
Well, the most concerned are people
Os máis intranquilos
01:14
who are, first of all, in developing countries
son os que se atopan en países en vías de desenvolvemento
01:17
and who don't have access to good medical care
e non teñen acceso a uns bos coidados médicos
01:20
and may not have access at all to a hospital,
ou nin sequera a un hospital,
01:23
should an epidemic occur in their country.
no caso de que se produza unha epidemia no seu país.
01:26
Those people would be at great risk,
Esas persoas estarían en perigo,
01:28
especially the elderly.
especialmente os maiores.
01:29
Elderly in all populations are at risk,
Todas as persoas maiores están en perigo,
01:32
but especially those who can't get to oxygen.
pero sobre todo aqueles que non teñen acceso ao osíxeno.
01:35
In industrialized countries,
Nos países desenvolvidos
01:36
it's the very elderly who have comorbidities,
son os máis anciáns que padecen comorbididades,
01:39
who have diabetes, who have other diseases,
diabetes ou outras enfermidades,
01:41
who are at risk.
os que están en perigo.
01:42
The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.
A poboación xeral non parece estar en grave perigo.
01:45
[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]
[Que enfermidades xa existentes poñen as persoas en maior risco?]
01:50
First of all,
En primeiro lugar
01:51
pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important.
son importantes as enfermidades pulmonares preexistentes.
01:55
In general, the elderly are at greater risk,
En xeral, os anciáns están en maior perigo,
01:57
especially those over 70,
sobre todo os maiores de 70,
01:59
because their immune systems are not as effective
xa que o seu sistema inmune non é tan efectivo
02:02
as they might have once been,
como puido ser no seu pasado,
02:04
and they are more susceptible to infections.
e son máis propensos a coller infeccións.
02:07
In addition, in some instances in China,
Ademais, nalgúns casos en China
02:10
there's been a coinfection with influenza
existiu unha infección simultánea coa gripe
02:14
and at the same time,
e ao mesmo tempo,
02:15
there have been some bacterial superinfections
déronse algunhas superinfeccións bacterianas
02:17
on the pneumonias that are occurring.
en casos existentes de pneumonías.
02:19
[Where can we find up-to-date information?]
[Onde podemos atopar información actualizada?]
02:22
The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track
O Centro para o Control de Enfermidades de Atlanta mantén ao tanto
02:25
and has updates on a regular basis on its website.
e actualiza a súa páxina web con regularidade.
02:29
Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva,
A Organización Mundial da Saúde en Xenebra,
02:31
which is coordinating many of the activities
que coordina moitas das actividades
levadas a cabo a nivel internacional,
02:34
going on internationally,
02:35
also has a website with daily updates.
tamén actualiza diariamente a súa páxina web.
02:37
It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals,
É a nosa responsabilidade individual informarnos
02:41
so we understand
para entender
02:42
and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way
e asegurarnos de que podemos contribuír ao noso xeito
02:45
to prevention of major spread.
para previr que se propague aínda máis.
[Vostede liderou a resposta mundial ante o SARS en 2003
02:48
[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.
02:50
How does this outbreak compare?]
Como é isto en comparación?]
02:52
That's the same problem with all new infections.
Ocorre o mesmo con todas as novas infeccións.
02:54
This is an infection that's coming to humans
Esta é unha infección que afecta aos humanos,
02:57
who have never been exposed to this virus before.
os cales non estiveron expostos ao virus nunca antes.
03:00
They don't have any antibody protection,
Non posúen anticorpos
03:02
and it's not clear whether their immune system
e non está moi claro se o seu sistema inmunolóxico
03:05
can handle this virus or not.
pode lidar co virus ou non.
03:07
This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals,
Este é un virus que se atopa normalmente en morcegos ou noutros animais
03:11
and all of a sudden, it's in humans.
e de repente, aparece nos humanos.
03:13
And humans just don't have experience with this virus.
E estes simplemente non teñen experiencia con este virus.
03:17
But gradually,
Pero pouco a pouco
03:18
we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS.
estamos aprendendo moito, como o fixemos co SARS.
03:21
And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths
E si, é certo que o número de mortes é maior
03:24
than there were with SARS.
do que o foi co SARS.
03:26
But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected,
Pero se o divides entre o número de persoas infectadas,
03:30
there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS.
hai moitas máis persoas infectadas das que houbo co SARS.
03:34
The case fatality ratio,
A taxa de letalidade,
03:36
that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS,
que é o número de mortes comparado co número de casos,
03:40
was about 10 percent.
no SARS foi dun 10%.
03:42
With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,
No coronavirus actual, COVID-19,
03:45
it is two percent or probably less.
é dun 2% ou incluso menos.
03:48
So it's a much less virulent virus,
Trátase entón dun virus moito menos virulento,
03:51
but it's still a virus that causes mortality,
pero que aínda así causa mortes
03:53
and that's what we don't want entering human populations.
e é por iso que non o queremos entre a poboación humana.
03:56
[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]
[Estamos respondendo adecuadamente nos pasos fronteirizos, como os aeroportos?]
04:00
It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders
É obvio que os aeroportos ou calquera outra fronteira
04:04
cannot prevent a disease from entering.
non poden previr que unha enfermidade entre.
04:06
People in the incubation period can cross that border,
A xente en período de incubación pode cruzar unha fronteira,
04:09
can enter countries
entrar noutros países
04:11
and can then infect others when they become sick.
e infectar a outros cando se poñan enfermos.
04:14
So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country
Así que as fronteiras non serven para previr que unha infección entre nun país
04:20
by checking temperatures.
comprobando a temperatura da xente.
04:22
Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving
As fronteiras son importantes porque podes axudar á xente
04:26
from areas that might be at risk of having had infection,
que vén de áreas en risco de ter a infección
04:29
provide them with an understanding,
proporcionándolle información,
04:31
either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding,
xa sexa de forma impresa ou verbalmente,
04:34
of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection,
sobre cales son os indicios e síntomas da infección
04:37
and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.
e sobre que deberían facer se cren que poden estar infectados.
04:41
[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]
[En canto tempo poderiamos ter unha vacina?]
04:44
Vaccines are under development right now,
As vacinas están en fase de desenvolvemento,
04:46
there's a lot of research going on.
estanse levando a cabo moitas investigacións.
04:48
That research requires first that the vaccine be developed,
Estas requiren en primeiro lugar que se desenvolva unha vacina,
04:52
then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals,
despois que se estude a súa seguridade e eficacia en animais,
04:57
who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated,
que terán que desafiar ao virus unha vez vacinados,
05:00
and then it must go into human studies.
e finalmente probarse en humanos.
05:03
The animal studies have not yet begun,
Os estudos con animais aínda non comezaron,
05:05
but will soon begin for certain vaccines.
pero axiña o farán con algunhas vacinas.
05:07
And it's thought that by the end of the year,
Crese que para finais de ano
05:10
or early next year,
ou comezos do seguinte,
05:11
there may be some candidate vaccines
pode haber algunhas vacinas candidatas
05:13
that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies.
que poderán valorarse de cara a recibir autorización dos organismos reguladores.
05:18
So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available
Así que terá que pasar polo menos un ano ata que haxa unha vacina dispoñible
05:22
that can be used in many populations.
que as distintas poboacións poidan usar.
05:25
[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]
[Que preguntas sobre a epidemia seguen sen resposta?]
05:29
It's clear we know how it transmits,
Está claro que sabemos como se transmite,
05:31
we don't know how easily it transmits in humans,
pero non sabemos con que facilidade o fai nos humanos,
05:33
in communities or in unenclosed areas.
en comunidades ou en áreas abertas.
05:38
We know, for example,
Sabemos, por exemplo,
05:39
that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily.
que nun espazo pechado, coma un cruceiro, propágase facilmente.
05:43
We need to better understand
Precisamos descubrir
05:45
how it will spread once it gets into more open areas
como se propagará unha vez alcance áreas máis abertas
05:49
where people are exposed to people who might be sick.
nas que as persoas estean expostas a outras que poidan estar enfermas.
05:52
[What about the global response could be improved?]
[Como pode mellorar a resposta mundial?]
05:56
A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks
Un gran problema no mundo hoxe en día é que entendemos os brotes
06:00
in developing countries
nos países subdesenvolvidos
06:01
as something that we need to go and stop.
como algo que é necesario atacar e frear.
06:04
So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,
Cando hai un brote de ébola,
06:06
we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?"
pensamos: "como podemos frear este brote no país?"
06:09
We don't think about "How can we help that country
Non pensamos: "como podemos axudar a este país
06:13
strengthen its capacity,
a que fortaleza a súa capacidade
06:15
so that it can detect and respond to infections?"
para poder detectar infeccións e responder ante elas?"
06:18
So we haven't invested enough
Aínda non investimos abondo en axudar
06:21
in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health.
aos países a mellorar as súas capacidades básicas en saúde pública.
06:25
What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally,
Investimos en moitos mecanismos a nivel mundial
06:29
which can provide support to other countries
que poden proporcionar axuda a outros países
06:32
to go and help stop outbreaks.
para que consigan frear os seus brotes.
06:34
But we want to see a world where every country
Pero queremos un mundo no que cada país
06:36
can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.
teña os mecanismos para parar os seus propios brotes.
06:38
[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]
[Aparecerán máis brotes de enfermidades no futuro?]
06:41
Today, there are over seven billion people.
Hoxe hai máis de sete mil millóns de persoas
06:43
And when those people come into the world,
e cando estas veñen ao mundo
06:46
they demand more food,
demandan máis comida,
06:47
they demand a whole series of things
demandan toda unha serie de cousas
06:49
and they live closer together.
e viven preto uns dous outros.
06:50
In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas.
De feito somos un mundo urbano no que a xente vive en zonas urbanas.
06:54
And at the same time, we're growing more animals,
Ao mesmo tempo criamos máis animais
06:57
and those animals are contributing food to humans as well.
e estes proporcionan comida aos humanos tamén.
07:01
So what we see
Podemos ver
07:02
is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together.
que a relación dos humanos cos animais é cada vez maior.
07:07
And this intensive agriculture of animals
A agricultura intensiva de animais
07:11
and this intensive increase in human populations
e o aumento intensivo das poboacións humanas,
07:14
living together on the same planet
todos vivindo no mesmo planeta,
07:16
is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur.
é un crisol no que se poden dar e se darán diferentes brotes.
07:21
We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks.
Co tempo haberá cada vez máis epidemias.
07:24
So an emerging infection today is just a warning
Así que unha infección emerxente hoxe é tan só un aviso
07:28
of what will happen in the future.
do que poderá pasar no futuro.
07:30
We have to make sure
Debemos asegurarnos
07:31
that that technical collaboration in the world
de que exista colaboración tecnolóxica
07:34
is there to work together
e traballemos xuntos
07:36
to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur
para ter a certeza de que entendemos estes brotes cando teñan lugar
07:40
and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.
e así proporcionar a información necesaria para controlalos rapidamente.
07:44
[Is the worst behind us?]
[Pasou o peor?]
07:46
I can't predict with accuracy.
Non o podo predicir con certeza.
07:48
So all I can say is that we must all be prepared
Así que o que podo dicir é que debemos estar preparados
07:51
for the worst-case scenario.
para a peor das situacións.
07:52
And at the same time,
E ao mesmo tempo
07:54
learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others
aprender a protexernos a nós mesmos, pero tamén aos demais
07:57
should we become a part of that epidemic.
en caso de sermos parte desa epidemia.
08:00
[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[Máis información en: Centros para o Control e Prevención de Enfermidades
08:03
World Health Organization]
Organización Mundial da Saúde]
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