What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | David Heymann

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2020-03-05・ 7753    355


Visit http://TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more. What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus? Who's most at risk? How can you protect yourself? Public health expert David Heymann, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, shares the latest findings about COVID-19 and what the future may hold. Recorded February 27, 2020 The TED Talks channel features the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. You're welcome to link to or embed these videos, forward them to others and share these ideas with people you know. For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), submit a Media Request here: http://media-requests.TED.com Follow TED on Twitter: http://twitter.com/TEDTalks Like TED on Facebook: http://facebook.com/TED Subscribe to our channel: http://youtube.com/TED

Instruction

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Translator: Andre . Reviewer: Reno Kanti Riananda
00:12
[As of the morning February 27, 2020,
[Sampai tanggal 27 Februari 2020,]
00:14
there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus
[terdapat 82.000 kasus virus corona di dunia]
[yang memakan 2.810 korban jiwa.]
00:17
and 2,810 deaths from it.
[TED mengundang Dr. David Heymann untuk berbagi penemuan terbaru soal virus ini.]
00:19
TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]
00:22
[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]
[Apa yang terjadi jika Anda terinfeksi virus corona?]
00:25
This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold,
Ini tampak seperti penyakit ringan layaknya flu biasa,
00:28
in the majority of people.
di kebanyakan orang.
00:30
There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness;
Ada beberapa orang yang terinfeksi dan mengalami sakit yang sangat serius;
00:34
among them are health workers.
salah satunya pekerja medis.
00:36
It's a very serious infection in them,
Infeksi mereka sangat parah,
karena mereka lebih terdampak dibandingkan orang lain,
00:38
as they get a higher dose than normal people,
00:40
and at the same time, they have no immunity.
dan di saat yang sama sedang tidak punya imunitas.
00:42
So in the general population,
Jadi dalam populasi umum,
00:46
it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected
Virus yang Anda dapat saat terinfeksi
00:51
is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive,
kemungkinan jauh lebih sedikit dibandingkan para pekerja medis,
00:54
health workers having more serious infections.
pekerja medis terkena infeksi yang lebih serius.
00:56
So your infection would be less serious, hopefully.
Jadi mudah-mudahan infeksi Anda tidak separah itu.
00:59
So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities
Jadi yang tersisa adalah orang-orang tua dan orang dengan komorbiditas
01:03
to really be the ones that we have to make sure
yang benar-benar harus dipastikan
01:05
are taken care of in hospitals.
dirawat di rumah sakit.
01:07
[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]
[Siapakah yang harus paling memperhatikan hal ini?]
01:12
Well, the most concerned are people
Yang harus diperhatikan
01:14
who are, first of all, in developing countries
adalah orang-orang di negara berkembang
01:17
and who don't have access to good medical care
dan yang tidak punya akses untuk perawatan medis yang baik
01:20
and may not have access at all to a hospital,
dan yang tidak punya akses sama sekali ke rumah sakit,
01:23
should an epidemic occur in their country.
jika ada wabah di negara mereka.
01:26
Those people would be at great risk,
Mereka akan dalam bahaya besar,
01:28
especially the elderly.
terutama para orang tua.
01:29
Elderly in all populations are at risk,
Orang tua di semua populasi sedang dalam bahaya,
01:32
but especially those who can't get to oxygen.
Tapi terutama yang tidak bisa mendapat oksigen.
01:35
In industrialized countries,
Di negara-negara industri,
01:36
it's the very elderly who have comorbidities,
orang-orang tua yang punya komorbiditas,
01:39
who have diabetes, who have other diseases,
diabetes, atau penyakit lain,
01:41
who are at risk.
adalah yang paling berisiko.
01:42
The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.
Masyarakat umum tampaknya tidak dalam bahaya besar.
01:45
[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]
[Kondisi medis apa yang menyebabkan seseorang menjadi lebih berisiko?]
01:50
First of all,
Pertama-tama,
01:51
pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important.
penyakit paru-paru eksisting sebagai komorbiditas juga penting.
01:55
In general, the elderly are at greater risk,
Biasanya, orang-orang tua lebih beresiko,
01:57
especially those over 70,
terutama yang umurnya lebih dari 70 tahun,
01:59
because their immune systems are not as effective
karena sistem kekebalan mereka
02:02
as they might have once been,
tidak seefektif dulu lagi,
02:04
and they are more susceptible to infections.
dan mereka lebih rentan terhadap infeksi.
02:07
In addition, in some instances in China,
Dan lagi, di beberapa kasus di Cina,
02:10
there's been a coinfection with influenza
ada infeksi yang bersamaan dengan influenza
02:14
and at the same time,
dan di waktu yang sama,
02:15
there have been some bacterial superinfections
ada beberapa superinfeksi bakteri
02:17
on the pneumonias that are occurring.
dengan pneumonia yang sedang terjadi.
02:19
[Where can we find up-to-date information?]
[Dimana kita dapat menemukan informasi terbaru?]
02:22
The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track
Pusat Pengendalian Penyakit di Atlanta mengawasi
02:25
and has updates on a regular basis on its website.
dan memiliki informasi rutin di situs webnya.
02:29
Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva,
Dan Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) di Geneva,
02:31
which is coordinating many of the activities
yang mengoordinasikan banyak aktivitas
yang terjadi secara internasional,
02:34
going on internationally,
02:35
also has a website with daily updates.
juga punya situs web dengan informasi rutin.
02:37
It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals,
Tanggung jawab kita sebagai individu adalah mendapatkan informasi itu,
02:41
so we understand
agar kita mengerti
02:42
and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way
dan dapat memastikan bahwa kita masing-masing berkontribusi
02:45
to prevention of major spread.
untuk menghindari penularan besar.
[Anda memimpin respons dunia terhadap SARS pada 2003.}
02:48
[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.
02:50
How does this outbreak compare?]
[Bagaimana perbandingannya dengan yang ini?]
02:52
That's the same problem with all new infections.
Masalahnya sama dengan semua infeksi baru.
02:54
This is an infection that's coming to humans
Ini adalah infeksi yang menyerang manusia
02:57
who have never been exposed to this virus before.
yang belum pernah terkena virus ini sebelumnya.
03:00
They don't have any antibody protection,
Manusia tidak punya perlindungan antibodi apapun,
03:02
and it's not clear whether their immune system
dan tidak diketahui apakah sistem kekebalan manusia
03:05
can handle this virus or not.
bisa melawan virus ini atau tidak.
03:07
This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals,
Ini adalah virus yang biasanya ada pada kelelawar dan binatang lain,
03:11
and all of a sudden, it's in humans.
dan tiba-tiba, ada di manusia.
03:13
And humans just don't have experience with this virus.
Dan manusia hanya tidak punya pengalaman dengan virus ini.
03:17
But gradually,
Tapi secara perlahan,
03:18
we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS.
kita mulai belajar banyak, seperti pada kasus SARS.
03:21
And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths
Dan memang, jumlah kematiannya lebih banyak dibandingkan SARS.
03:24
than there were with SARS.
03:26
But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected,
Tapi saat jumlahnya kita bagi dengan jumlah orang yang terinfeksi,
03:30
there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS.
Ada lebih banyak orang yang terinfeksi dibandingkan SARS.
03:34
The case fatality ratio,
Rasio fatalitas SARS,
03:36
that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS,
yaitu rasio kematian akibat SARS dibandingkan jumlah kasusnya,
03:40
was about 10 percent.
adalah sekitar 10 persen.
03:42
With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,
Dengan virus corona yang sekarang, COVID-19,
03:45
it is two percent or probably less.
rasio fatalitas hanya sekitar dua persen atau bahkan kurang.
03:48
So it's a much less virulent virus,
Jadi ini adalah virus yang jauh lebih jinak,
03:51
but it's still a virus that causes mortality,
tapi tetap virus yang menyebabkan kematian,
03:53
and that's what we don't want entering human populations.
dan itulah yang tidak diinginkan masuk ke populasi manusia.
03:56
[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]
[Sudahkah kita bertindak tepat di perbatasan negara, seperti bandara?]
04:00
It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders
Cukup dimengerti bahwa bandara atau perbatasan darat apapun
04:04
cannot prevent a disease from entering.
tidak bisa mencegah virus masuk.
04:06
People in the incubation period can cross that border,
Orang-orang dalam masa inkubasi bisa melewati perbatasan
04:09
can enter countries
dan masuk ke negara lain
04:11
and can then infect others when they become sick.
dan bisa menginfeksi orang lain saat mereka sakit.
04:14
So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country
Jadi perbatasan bukanlah cara mencegah infeksi masuk ke suatu negara
04:20
by checking temperatures.
dengan cara memeriksa suhu.
04:22
Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving
Perbatasan penting karena Anda bisa memberikan orang-orang
yang datang dari tempat yang beresiko atau sudah terkena infeksi
04:26
from areas that might be at risk of having had infection,
04:29
provide them with an understanding,
dengan pemahaman,
04:31
either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding,
baik pemahaman tertulis maupun secara verbal,
04:34
of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection,
tentang tanda-tanda dan gejala infeksi ini,
04:37
and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.
dan apa yang harus dilakukan jika merasa telah terinfeksi.
04:41
[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]
[Berapa waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk sebuah vaksin?]
04:44
Vaccines are under development right now,
Beberapa vaksin sedang dalam pengembangan,
04:46
there's a lot of research going on.
ada banyak penelitian yang dilakukan.
04:48
That research requires first that the vaccine be developed,
Pertama-tama, vaksinnya harus dikembangkan,
04:52
then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals,
kemudian harus diuji keamanan dan efektivitasnya pada binatang,
04:57
who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated,
yang mendapat virus setelah divaksinasi,
05:00
and then it must go into human studies.
dan setelah itu harus diteliti pada manusia.
05:03
The animal studies have not yet begun,
Pengujian binatangnya belum dimulai
05:05
but will soon begin for certain vaccines.
namun akan segera dimulai untuk vaksin tertentu.
05:07
And it's thought that by the end of the year,
Dan rencananya pada akhir tahun ini
05:10
or early next year,
atau awal tahun depan,
05:11
there may be some candidate vaccines
akan ada beberapa kandidat vaksin
05:13
that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies.
yang bisa diteliti untuk memperoleh perizinan dari badan pengawas.
05:18
So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available
Jadi kurang lebih masih satu tahun lagi sampai vaksinnya tersedia
05:22
that can be used in many populations.
dan bisa digunakan di banyak populasi.
05:25
[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]
[Pertanyaan apa mengenai kejadian luar biasa ini yang masih belum terjawab?]
05:29
It's clear we know how it transmits,
Kita tahu bagaimana ia menular,
05:31
we don't know how easily it transmits in humans,
kita tidak tahu semudah apa virus ini menular pada manusia,
05:33
in communities or in unenclosed areas.
dalam masyarakat atau tempat terbuka.
05:38
We know, for example,
Contohnya, kita tahu,
05:39
that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily.
bahwa di dalam kapal pesiar yang tertutup, ia menular dengan mudah.
05:43
We need to better understand
Kita harus lebih mengerti
05:45
how it will spread once it gets into more open areas
bagaimana ia menular saat berada di tempat yang lebih terbuka
05:49
where people are exposed to people who might be sick.
di mana orang-orang terekspos kepada orang yang mungkin sakit.
05:52
[What about the global response could be improved?]
[Respons global apa yang bisa ditingkatkan?]
05:56
A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks
Masalah besarnya di dunia sekarang adalah kita melihat penyebaran virus
06:00
in developing countries
di negara berkembang
06:01
as something that we need to go and stop.
sebagai sesuatu yang perlu kita hentikan.
06:04
So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,
Jadi saat virus Ebola muncul,
06:06
we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?"
kita berpikir "Bagaimana caranya mengatasi virus di negara itu?"
06:09
We don't think about "How can we help that country
Kita tidak berpikir tentang "Bagaimana kita menolong negara itu
06:13
strengthen its capacity,
memperkuat kemampuannya
06:15
so that it can detect and respond to infections?"
sehingga ia bisa mendeteksi dan merespon terhadap infeksi?"
06:18
So we haven't invested enough
Jadi kita belum berinvestasi cukup banyak
06:21
in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health.
untuk membantu negara lain mengembangkan kemampuan mereka dalam bidang kesehatan.
06:25
What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally,
Yang kita lakukan adalah berinvestasi dalam banyak mekanisme global,
06:29
which can provide support to other countries
yang bisa mendukung suatu negara
untuk membantu menghentikan penyebaran penyakit di negara berkembang.
06:32
to go and help stop outbreaks.
06:34
But we want to see a world where every country
Tapi kita ingin melihat dunia di mana setiap negara
06:36
can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.
mampu mengatasinya sendiri.
06:38
[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]
[Apakah akan banyak wabah penyakit baru bermunculan di masa depan?]
06:41
Today, there are over seven billion people.
Sekarang, ada lebih dari tujuh miliar orang.
06:43
And when those people come into the world,
Dan saat mereka datang ke dunia,
06:46
they demand more food,
mereka butuh makanan lebih,
06:47
they demand a whole series of things
mereka butuh banyak hal lainnya
06:49
and they live closer together.
dan mereka hidup berdekatan.
06:50
In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas.
Faktanya, kita hidup di dunia urban, di mana kita tinggal di wilayah urban.
06:54
And at the same time, we're growing more animals,
Dan di saat yang sama, kita memelihara lebih banyak binatang,
06:57
and those animals are contributing food to humans as well.
dan binatang tersebut juga memberikan makanan bagi manusia.
07:01
So what we see
Jadi yang kita lihat
07:02
is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together.
adalah bahwa hubungan manusia dengan binatang menjadi semakin dekat.
07:07
And this intensive agriculture of animals
Dan pembiakan hewan yang intensif ini
07:11
and this intensive increase in human populations
serta pertambahan populasi manusia yang pesat
07:14
living together on the same planet
hidup bersama di planet yang sama
07:16
is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur.
adalah sebuah tempat percampuran di mana penyakit bisa terus bermunculan.
07:21
We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks.
Nantinya, hal-hal seperti ini akan lebih banyak bermunculan,
07:24
So an emerging infection today is just a warning
Jadi infeksi yang terjadi hari ini hanyalah sebuah peringatan
07:28
of what will happen in the future.
akan apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan.
07:30
We have to make sure
Kita harus memastikan
07:31
that that technical collaboration in the world
bahwa kolaborasi tersebut
tetap ada di dunia untuk bekerja sama
07:34
is there to work together
07:36
to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur
agar kita bisa memahami peristiwa ini saat mereka terjadi
07:40
and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.
dan memberikan informasi yang dibutuhkan untuk mengontrolnya dengan cepat.
07:44
[Is the worst behind us?]
[Apakah masa terburuknya sudah lewat?]
07:46
I can't predict with accuracy.
Saya tidak bisa memprediksi dengan akurat.
07:48
So all I can say is that we must all be prepared
Jadi yang bisa saya katakan hanyalah kita harus siap
07:51
for the worst-case scenario.
untuk kemungkinan terburuk.
07:52
And at the same time,
Dan pada saat yang sama,
07:54
learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others
belajar bagaimana kita bisa melindungi diri sendiri dan orang lain
07:57
should we become a part of that epidemic.
jika kita menjadi bagian dari epidemi itu.
08:00
[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[Untuk info lebih lanjut, kunjungi Pusat Kontrol dan Pengendalian Penyakit]
08:03
World Health Organization]
[Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia]
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