What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | David Heymann

Translator: Sab Kasim Reviewer: Amirul Iman

[As of the morning February 27, 2020,

[Sejak pagi 27 Februari 2020

there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus

terdapat lebih 82,000 kes yang sah dijangkiti coronavirus di seluruh dunia

and 2,810 deaths from it.

dan 2,810 kematian darinya.

TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]

TED menjemput Dr. David Heymann berkongsi penemuan terbaru mengenai wabak ini.]

[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]

[Apakah akan terjadi jika anda dijangkiti koronavirus?]

This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold,

Ia kelihatan sebagai penyakit ringan, seperti selesema,

in the majority of people.

pada kebanyakan orang.

There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness;

Terdapat segelintir orang yang dijangkiti dan ia akan menjadi penyakit yang serius;

among them are health workers.

antaranya pekerja kesihatan.

It's a very serious infection in them,

Ia merupakan jangkitan serius,

as they get a higher dose than normal people,

selain mendapat dos tinggi daripada orang biasa,

and at the same time, they have no immunity.

dan di waktu yang sama mereka tiada imuniti.

So in the general population,

Jadi dalam populasi umum,

it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected

ia berkemungkinan dos virus yang anda terima jika anda dijangkiti

is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive,

lebih kurang daripada dos yang diterima oleh pekerja kesihatan,

health workers having more serious infections.

pekerja kesihatan mempunyai jangkitan lebih teruk.

So your infection would be less serious, hopefully.

Oleh itu diharapkan jangkitan anda mungkin kurang serius.

So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities

Jadi itu meninggalkan orang tua dan mereka yang mempunyai komorbiditi

to really be the ones that we have to make sure

yang mesti menjadi orang yang kita perlu pastikan

are taken care of in hospitals.

dijaga di hospital.

[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]

[Siapakah mereka yang patut paling bimbang tentang ini?]

Well, the most concerned are people

Jadi, yang paling bimbang ialah orang

who are, first of all, in developing countries

yang pertama sekali mereka yang berada di negara membangun

and who don't have access to good medical care

dan tidak ada akses kepada rawatan perubatan yang baik

and may not have access at all to a hospital,

dan mungkin tidak ada akses langsung kepada hospital,

should an epidemic occur in their country.

sekiranya berlaku wabak di negara mereka.

Those people would be at great risk,

Mereka ini mempunyai risiko tinggi,

especially the elderly.

terutamanya orang tua.

Elderly in all populations are at risk,

Orang tua dalam semua populasi berisiko,

but especially those who can't get to oxygen.

terutamanya sesiapa yang tak boleh mendapat oksigen.

In industrialized countries,

Di negara perindustrian,

it's the very elderly who have comorbidities,

orang tualah yang mempunyai komorbiditi,

who have diabetes, who have other diseases,

diabetes, penyakit lain,

who are at risk.

berisiko.

The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.

Populasi umum tidak dilihat berisiko tinggi.

[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]

[Apakah keadaan perubatan sedia ada meletakkan mereka berisiko lebih tinggi?]

First of all,

Pertama sekali,

pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important.

penyakit pulmonari sedia ada sebagai satu komorbiditi juga penting.

In general, the elderly are at greater risk,

Secara umum, orang tua berisiko lebih tinggi,

especially those over 70,

terutamanya mereka berumur melebihi 70 tahun,

because their immune systems are not as effective

kerana sistem imun mereka tak begitu berkesan

as they might have once been,

seperti berlaku sebelum ini,

and they are more susceptible to infections.

dan mereka mudah dijangkiti.

In addition, in some instances in China,

Tambahan lagi, beberapa keadaan di China,

there's been a coinfection with influenza

terdapat jangkitan bersama dengan influenza

and at the same time,

dan pada masa yang sama,

there have been some bacterial superinfections

terdapat beberapa jangkitan bakteria bertindih

on the pneumonias that are occurring.

ke atas pneumonia yang sedang berlaku.

[Where can we find up-to-date information?]

[Di manakah kita dapat maklumat kemas kini?]

The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track

Pusat Kawalan Penyakit di Atlanta menjejaki

and has updates on a regular basis on its website.

dan mempunyai pengemaskinian setiap masa di laman webnya.

Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva,

Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia di Geneva,

which is coordinating many of the activities

yang menyelaraskan banyak aktiviti

going on internationally,

yang berlaku di dunia,

also has a website with daily updates.

juga mempunyai laman web dikemas kini setiap hari.

It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals,

Ia tanggungjawab kami untuk mendapatkan maklumat sebagai individu,

so we understand

supaya kita faham

and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way

dan memastikan kita menyumbang dengan cara tersendiri

to prevention of major spread.

untuk mencegah penyebaran jangkitan utama.

[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.

[Anda mengetuai respons global wabak SARS pada tahun 2003.

How does this outbreak compare?]

Bagaimanakah wabak ini dibandingkan?]

That's the same problem with all new infections.

Masalahnya sama dengan semua jangkitan baru.

This is an infection that's coming to humans

jangkitan ini merebak kepada manusia

who have never been exposed to this virus before.

yang belum pernah terdedah kepada virus sebelum ini.

They don't have any antibody protection,

Mereka tidak mempunyai perlindungan antibodi

and it's not clear whether their immune system

dan ia tidak jelas sama ada sistem imun mereka

can handle this virus or not.

boleh menangani virus ini atau tidak.

This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals,

Virus ini selalunya terdapat dalam kelawar atau haiwan lain,

and all of a sudden, it's in humans.

dan secara tiba-tiba, dalam manusia.

And humans just don't have experience with this virus.

Dan manusia tidak pernah mengalami dengan virus ini.

But gradually,

Tetapi beransur-ansur,

we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS.

kita telah mula banyak belajar, sama seperti di masa SARS.

And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths

Dan anda tahu, terdapat beberapa kematian yang lebih besar

than there were with SARS.

daripada yang terjadi dengan SARS.

But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected,

Tetapi apabila anda membahagikannya dengan penyebut orang dijangkiti,

there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS.

terdapat lebih banyak lagi yang dijangkiti daripada dengan SARS.

The case fatality ratio,

Nisbah kes kematian,

that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS,

iaitu nisbah bilangan kes kematian SARS,

was about 10 percent.

adalah sekitar 10 peratus.

With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,

Dengan coronavirus semasa, COVID-19,

it is two percent or probably less.

virus adalah dua peratus atau mungkin kurang.

So it's a much less virulent virus,

Jadi, virus ini kurang memudaratkan,

but it's still a virus that causes mortality,

tapi virus ini masih menyebabkan kematian,

and that's what we don't want entering human populations.

dan itu yang kita tidak mahu memasuki populasi manusia.

[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]

[Adakah kita beri respons secukupnya di sempadan, seperti lapangan terbang?]

It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders

Ia difahami dengan jelas bahawa lapangan terbang atau mana-mana sempadan darat

cannot prevent a disease from entering.

tidak dapat menghalang penyakit daripada masuk.

People in the incubation period can cross that border,

Orang dalam tempoh inkubasi boleh menyeberang sempadan itu,

can enter countries

boleh memasuki negara

and can then infect others when they become sick.

dan boleh menjangkiti orang lain apabila mereka jatuh sakit.

So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country

Oleh sebab itu, sempadan bukanlah cara mencegah jangkitan memasuki negara

by checking temperatures.

tetapi dengan memeriksa suhu.

Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving

Sempadan adalah penting kerana anda boleh menyediakan kepada orang yang tiba

from areas that might be at risk of having had infection,

dari kawasan yang mungkin berisiko yang telah mengalami jangkitan,

provide them with an understanding,

untuk memberi mereka pemahaman,

either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding,

sama ada pemahaman bercetak atau lisan,

of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection,

apakah tanda dan gejala jangkitan ini,

and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.

dan apakah mereka harus lakukan jika merasa mungkin dijangkiti.

[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]

[Apakah garis masa untuk vaksin?]

Vaccines are under development right now,

Vaksin sedang dihasilkan sekarang,

there's a lot of research going on.

terdapat banyak penyelidikan sedang berlaku.

That research requires first that the vaccine be developed,

Penyelidikan itu perlu menghasilkan vaksin terlebih dahulu,

then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals,

kemudian ia akan dikaji untuk keselamatan dan keberkesanan ke atas haiwan,

who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated,

dengan penjangkitan virus tersebut selepas mereka diberi vaksin,

and then it must go into human studies.

dan kemudian dikaji dengan kajian manusia.

The animal studies have not yet begun,

Kajian haiwan masih belum dimulakan,

but will soon begin for certain vaccines.

tapi akan mula tidak lama lagi untuk vaksin tertentu.

And it's thought that by the end of the year,

Dan dijangka bahawa menjelang akhir tahun ini,

or early next year,

atau awal tahun hadapan,

there may be some candidate vaccines

mungkin terdapat calon vaksin

that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies.

yang kemudiannya boleh dipertimbangkan untuk pelesenan oleh agensi kawal selia.

So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available

Jadi ia mungkin paling kurang mengambil masa setahun hingga terhasilnya vaksin itu

that can be used in many populations.

yang dapat digunakan oleh banyak populasi.

[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]

[Apakah soalan mengenai wabak itu yang belum terjawab?]

It's clear we know how it transmits,

Jelas kita tahu bagaimana ia merebak,

we don't know how easily it transmits in humans,

kita tidak tahu betapa mudahnya ia merebak pada manusia,

in communities or in unenclosed areas.

dalam komuniti atau di kawasan yang terbuka.

We know, for example,

Kita tahu, sebagai contoh,

that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily.

bahawa di kawasan tertutup kapal pesiar, ia merebak dengan mudah.

We need to better understand

Kita perlu lebih memahami

how it will spread once it gets into more open areas

bagaimana ia boleh merebak apabila berada di kawasan yang lebih terbuka

where people are exposed to people who might be sick.

di mana orang terdedah kepada sesiapa yang mungkin sakit.

[What about the global response could be improved?]

[Bagaimanakah cara respons global boleh diperbaiki?]

A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks

Masalah utama di dunia hari ini adalah cara kita melihat wabak

in developing countries

di negara-negara membangun

as something that we need to go and stop.

sebagaimana kita perlu pergi ke sana dan hentikannya.

So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,

Jadi, semasa wabak Ebola,

we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?"

kita berfikir "Bagaimana boleh hentikan wabak di negara itu?"

We don't think about "How can we help that country

Kita tidak terfikir "Apakah cara kita dapat membantu negara itu

strengthen its capacity,

mengukuhkan keupayaannya,

so that it can detect and respond to infections?"

supaya dapat mengesan dan bertindak balas terhadap jangkitan itu? "

So we haven't invested enough

Sebenarnya kita tidak cukup melabur

in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health.

dalam membantu negara mengembangkan keupayaan teras dalam kesihatan awam.

What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally,

Apa kita telah lakukan adalah melabur dalam banyak mekanisme di seluruh dunia,

which can provide support to other countries

yang boleh memberi sokongan ke negara lain

to go and help stop outbreaks.

untuk pergi membantu menghentikan wabak.

But we want to see a world where every country

Tapi kita ingin lihat semua negara di dunia

can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.

melakukan dengan baik untuk menghentikan wabak ini.

[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]

[Adakah wabak penyakit muncul pada masa depan?]

Today, there are over seven billion people.

Hari ini, melebihi tujuh bilion orang.

And when those people come into the world,

Dan apabila mereka berada di dunia ini,

they demand more food,

mereka mahu lebih makanan,

they demand a whole series of things

mereka tuntut pelbagai perkara

and they live closer together.

dan mereka tinggal berdekatan.

In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas.

Malah, kita merupakan dunia bandar, di mana orang tinggal di kawasan bandar.

And at the same time, we're growing more animals,

Dan pada masa yang sama, kita membela lebih banyak haiwan,

and those animals are contributing food to humans as well.

dan haiwan tersebut menjadi penyumbang makanan kepada manusia juga.

So what we see

Jadi apa kita lihat

is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together.

adalah hubung kait antara haiwan-manusia itu semakin hari semakin rapat.

And this intensive agriculture of animals

Dan pertanian intensif haiwan

and this intensive increase in human populations

dan peningkatan intensif ini di dalam populasi manusia

living together on the same planet

hidup bersama di planet yang sama

is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur.

adalah campuran pelbagai perkara dimana wabak boleh berlaku dan memang berlaku.

We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks.

Kita akhirnya akan mempunyai lebih banyak lagi wabak sebegini.

So an emerging infection today is just a warning

Jadi jangkitan yang baru muncul hari ini hanyalah sabagai amaran

of what will happen in the future.

apa akan berlaku pada masa depan.

We have to make sure

Kita perlu memastikan

that that technical collaboration in the world

bahawa kerjasama teknikal sedunia

is there to work together

di mana semua perlu bekerja bersama

to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur

supaya kita dapat memahami wabak ini ketika berlakunnya

and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.

dan memberikan maklumat yang perlu dengan cepat untuk mengawalnya.

[Is the worst behind us?]

[Adakah wabak ini akan berakhir?]

I can't predict with accuracy.

Saya tidak boleh ramal tepat.

So all I can say is that we must all be prepared

Jadi apa boleh saya katakan ialah kita semua mesti bersedia

for the worst-case scenario.

untuk senario terburuk.

And at the same time,

Pada masa yang sama,

learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others

belajar cara bagaimana kita boleh lindungi diri dan orang lain

should we become a part of that epidemic.

sekiranya kita terjebak di dalam wabak tersebut.

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

[Untuk makluman lanjut, lawati: Pusat Kawalan dan Pencegahan Penyakit

World Health Organization]

Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia]