What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | David Heymann

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2020-03-05・ 7754    355


Visit http://TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more. What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus? Who's most at risk? How can you protect yourself? Public health expert David Heymann, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, shares the latest findings about COVID-19 and what the future may hold. Recorded February 27, 2020 The TED Talks channel features the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. You're welcome to link to or embed these videos, forward them to others and share these ideas with people you know. For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), submit a Media Request here: http://media-requests.TED.com Follow TED on Twitter: http://twitter.com/TEDTalks Like TED on Facebook: http://facebook.com/TED Subscribe to our channel: http://youtube.com/TED

Instruction

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Translator: Sab Kasim Reviewer: Amirul Iman
00:12
[As of the morning February 27, 2020,
[Sejak pagi 27 Februari 2020
00:14
there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus
terdapat lebih 82,000 kes yang sah dijangkiti coronavirus di seluruh dunia
00:17
and 2,810 deaths from it.
dan 2,810 kematian darinya.
00:19
TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]
TED menjemput Dr. David Heymann berkongsi penemuan terbaru mengenai wabak ini.]
00:22
[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]
[Apakah akan terjadi jika anda dijangkiti koronavirus?]
00:25
This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold,
Ia kelihatan sebagai penyakit ringan, seperti selesema,
00:28
in the majority of people.
pada kebanyakan orang.
00:30
There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness;
Terdapat segelintir orang yang dijangkiti dan ia akan menjadi penyakit yang serius;
00:34
among them are health workers.
antaranya pekerja kesihatan.
00:36
It's a very serious infection in them,
Ia merupakan jangkitan serius,
00:38
as they get a higher dose than normal people,
selain mendapat dos tinggi daripada orang biasa,
00:40
and at the same time, they have no immunity.
dan di waktu yang sama mereka tiada imuniti.
00:42
So in the general population,
Jadi dalam populasi umum,
00:46
it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected
ia berkemungkinan dos virus yang anda terima jika anda dijangkiti
00:51
is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive,
lebih kurang daripada dos yang diterima oleh pekerja kesihatan,
00:54
health workers having more serious infections.
pekerja kesihatan mempunyai jangkitan lebih teruk.
00:56
So your infection would be less serious, hopefully.
Oleh itu diharapkan jangkitan anda mungkin kurang serius.
00:59
So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities
Jadi itu meninggalkan orang tua dan mereka yang mempunyai komorbiditi
01:03
to really be the ones that we have to make sure
yang mesti menjadi orang yang kita perlu pastikan
01:05
are taken care of in hospitals.
dijaga di hospital.
01:07
[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]
[Siapakah mereka yang patut paling bimbang tentang ini?]
01:12
Well, the most concerned are people
Jadi, yang paling bimbang ialah orang
01:14
who are, first of all, in developing countries
yang pertama sekali mereka yang berada di negara membangun
01:17
and who don't have access to good medical care
dan tidak ada akses kepada rawatan perubatan yang baik
01:20
and may not have access at all to a hospital,
dan mungkin tidak ada akses langsung kepada hospital,
01:23
should an epidemic occur in their country.
sekiranya berlaku wabak di negara mereka.
01:26
Those people would be at great risk,
Mereka ini mempunyai risiko tinggi,
01:28
especially the elderly.
terutamanya orang tua.
01:29
Elderly in all populations are at risk,
Orang tua dalam semua populasi berisiko,
01:32
but especially those who can't get to oxygen.
terutamanya sesiapa yang tak boleh mendapat oksigen.
01:35
In industrialized countries,
Di negara perindustrian,
01:36
it's the very elderly who have comorbidities,
orang tualah yang mempunyai komorbiditi,
01:39
who have diabetes, who have other diseases,
diabetes, penyakit lain,
01:41
who are at risk.
berisiko.
01:42
The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.
Populasi umum tidak dilihat berisiko tinggi.
01:45
[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]
[Apakah keadaan perubatan sedia ada meletakkan mereka berisiko lebih tinggi?]
01:50
First of all,
Pertama sekali,
01:51
pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important.
penyakit pulmonari sedia ada sebagai satu komorbiditi juga penting.
01:55
In general, the elderly are at greater risk,
Secara umum, orang tua berisiko lebih tinggi,
01:57
especially those over 70,
terutamanya mereka berumur melebihi 70 tahun,
01:59
because their immune systems are not as effective
kerana sistem imun mereka tak begitu berkesan
02:02
as they might have once been,
seperti berlaku sebelum ini,
02:04
and they are more susceptible to infections.
dan mereka mudah dijangkiti.
02:07
In addition, in some instances in China,
Tambahan lagi, beberapa keadaan di China,
02:10
there's been a coinfection with influenza
terdapat jangkitan bersama dengan influenza
02:14
and at the same time,
dan pada masa yang sama,
02:15
there have been some bacterial superinfections
terdapat beberapa jangkitan bakteria bertindih
02:17
on the pneumonias that are occurring.
ke atas pneumonia yang sedang berlaku.
02:19
[Where can we find up-to-date information?]
[Di manakah kita dapat maklumat kemas kini?]
02:22
The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track
Pusat Kawalan Penyakit di Atlanta menjejaki
02:25
and has updates on a regular basis on its website.
dan mempunyai pengemaskinian setiap masa di laman webnya.
02:29
Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva,
Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia di Geneva,
02:31
which is coordinating many of the activities
yang menyelaraskan banyak aktiviti
02:34
going on internationally,
yang berlaku di dunia,
02:35
also has a website with daily updates.
juga mempunyai laman web dikemas kini setiap hari.
02:37
It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals,
Ia tanggungjawab kami untuk mendapatkan maklumat sebagai individu,
02:41
so we understand
supaya kita faham
02:42
and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way
dan memastikan kita menyumbang dengan cara tersendiri
02:45
to prevention of major spread.
untuk mencegah penyebaran jangkitan utama.
02:48
[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.
[Anda mengetuai respons global wabak SARS pada tahun 2003.
02:50
How does this outbreak compare?]
Bagaimanakah wabak ini dibandingkan?]
02:52
That's the same problem with all new infections.
Masalahnya sama dengan semua jangkitan baru.
02:54
This is an infection that's coming to humans
jangkitan ini merebak kepada manusia
02:57
who have never been exposed to this virus before.
yang belum pernah terdedah kepada virus sebelum ini.
03:00
They don't have any antibody protection,
Mereka tidak mempunyai perlindungan antibodi
03:02
and it's not clear whether their immune system
dan ia tidak jelas sama ada sistem imun mereka
03:05
can handle this virus or not.
boleh menangani virus ini atau tidak.
03:07
This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals,
Virus ini selalunya terdapat dalam kelawar atau haiwan lain,
03:11
and all of a sudden, it's in humans.
dan secara tiba-tiba, dalam manusia.
03:13
And humans just don't have experience with this virus.
Dan manusia tidak pernah mengalami dengan virus ini.
03:17
But gradually,
Tetapi beransur-ansur,
03:18
we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS.
kita telah mula banyak belajar, sama seperti di masa SARS.
03:21
And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths
Dan anda tahu, terdapat beberapa kematian yang lebih besar
03:24
than there were with SARS.
daripada yang terjadi dengan SARS.
03:26
But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected,
Tetapi apabila anda membahagikannya dengan penyebut orang dijangkiti,
03:30
there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS.
terdapat lebih banyak lagi yang dijangkiti daripada dengan SARS.
03:34
The case fatality ratio,
Nisbah kes kematian,
03:36
that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS,
iaitu nisbah bilangan kes kematian SARS,
03:40
was about 10 percent.
adalah sekitar 10 peratus.
03:42
With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,
Dengan coronavirus semasa, COVID-19,
03:45
it is two percent or probably less.
virus adalah dua peratus atau mungkin kurang.
03:48
So it's a much less virulent virus,
Jadi, virus ini kurang memudaratkan,
03:51
but it's still a virus that causes mortality,
tapi virus ini masih menyebabkan kematian,
03:53
and that's what we don't want entering human populations.
dan itu yang kita tidak mahu memasuki populasi manusia.
03:56
[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]
[Adakah kita beri respons secukupnya di sempadan, seperti lapangan terbang?]
04:00
It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders
Ia difahami dengan jelas bahawa lapangan terbang atau mana-mana sempadan darat
04:04
cannot prevent a disease from entering.
tidak dapat menghalang penyakit daripada masuk.
04:06
People in the incubation period can cross that border,
Orang dalam tempoh inkubasi boleh menyeberang sempadan itu,
04:09
can enter countries
boleh memasuki negara
04:11
and can then infect others when they become sick.
dan boleh menjangkiti orang lain apabila mereka jatuh sakit.
04:14
So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country
Oleh sebab itu, sempadan bukanlah cara mencegah jangkitan memasuki negara
04:20
by checking temperatures.
tetapi dengan memeriksa suhu.
04:22
Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving
Sempadan adalah penting kerana anda boleh menyediakan kepada orang yang tiba
04:26
from areas that might be at risk of having had infection,
dari kawasan yang mungkin berisiko yang telah mengalami jangkitan,
04:29
provide them with an understanding,
untuk memberi mereka pemahaman,
04:31
either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding,
sama ada pemahaman bercetak atau lisan,
04:34
of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection,
apakah tanda dan gejala jangkitan ini,
04:37
and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.
dan apakah mereka harus lakukan jika merasa mungkin dijangkiti.
04:41
[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]
[Apakah garis masa untuk vaksin?]
04:44
Vaccines are under development right now,
Vaksin sedang dihasilkan sekarang,
04:46
there's a lot of research going on.
terdapat banyak penyelidikan sedang berlaku.
04:48
That research requires first that the vaccine be developed,
Penyelidikan itu perlu menghasilkan vaksin terlebih dahulu,
04:52
then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals,
kemudian ia akan dikaji untuk keselamatan dan keberkesanan ke atas haiwan,
04:57
who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated,
dengan penjangkitan virus tersebut selepas mereka diberi vaksin,
05:00
and then it must go into human studies.
dan kemudian dikaji dengan kajian manusia.
05:03
The animal studies have not yet begun,
Kajian haiwan masih belum dimulakan,
05:05
but will soon begin for certain vaccines.
tapi akan mula tidak lama lagi untuk vaksin tertentu.
05:07
And it's thought that by the end of the year,
Dan dijangka bahawa menjelang akhir tahun ini,
05:10
or early next year,
atau awal tahun hadapan,
05:11
there may be some candidate vaccines
mungkin terdapat calon vaksin
05:13
that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies.
yang kemudiannya boleh dipertimbangkan untuk pelesenan oleh agensi kawal selia.
05:18
So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available
Jadi ia mungkin paling kurang mengambil masa setahun hingga terhasilnya vaksin itu
05:22
that can be used in many populations.
yang dapat digunakan oleh banyak populasi.
05:25
[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]
[Apakah soalan mengenai wabak itu yang belum terjawab?]
05:29
It's clear we know how it transmits,
Jelas kita tahu bagaimana ia merebak,
05:31
we don't know how easily it transmits in humans,
kita tidak tahu betapa mudahnya ia merebak pada manusia,
05:33
in communities or in unenclosed areas.
dalam komuniti atau di kawasan yang terbuka.
05:38
We know, for example,
Kita tahu, sebagai contoh,
05:39
that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily.
bahawa di kawasan tertutup kapal pesiar, ia merebak dengan mudah.
05:43
We need to better understand
Kita perlu lebih memahami
05:45
how it will spread once it gets into more open areas
bagaimana ia boleh merebak apabila berada di kawasan yang lebih terbuka
05:49
where people are exposed to people who might be sick.
di mana orang terdedah kepada sesiapa yang mungkin sakit.
05:52
[What about the global response could be improved?]
[Bagaimanakah cara respons global boleh diperbaiki?]
05:56
A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks
Masalah utama di dunia hari ini adalah cara kita melihat wabak
06:00
in developing countries
di negara-negara membangun
06:01
as something that we need to go and stop.
sebagaimana kita perlu pergi ke sana dan hentikannya.
06:04
So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,
Jadi, semasa wabak Ebola,
06:06
we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?"
kita berfikir "Bagaimana boleh hentikan wabak di negara itu?"
06:09
We don't think about "How can we help that country
Kita tidak terfikir "Apakah cara kita dapat membantu negara itu
06:13
strengthen its capacity,
mengukuhkan keupayaannya,
06:15
so that it can detect and respond to infections?"
supaya dapat mengesan dan bertindak balas terhadap jangkitan itu? "
06:18
So we haven't invested enough
Sebenarnya kita tidak cukup melabur
06:21
in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health.
dalam membantu negara mengembangkan keupayaan teras dalam kesihatan awam.
06:25
What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally,
Apa kita telah lakukan adalah melabur dalam banyak mekanisme di seluruh dunia,
06:29
which can provide support to other countries
yang boleh memberi sokongan ke negara lain
06:32
to go and help stop outbreaks.
untuk pergi membantu menghentikan wabak.
06:34
But we want to see a world where every country
Tapi kita ingin lihat semua negara di dunia
06:36
can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.
melakukan dengan baik untuk menghentikan wabak ini.
06:38
[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]
[Adakah wabak penyakit muncul pada masa depan?]
06:41
Today, there are over seven billion people.
Hari ini, melebihi tujuh bilion orang.
06:43
And when those people come into the world,
Dan apabila mereka berada di dunia ini,
06:46
they demand more food,
mereka mahu lebih makanan,
06:47
they demand a whole series of things
mereka tuntut pelbagai perkara
06:49
and they live closer together.
dan mereka tinggal berdekatan.
06:50
In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas.
Malah, kita merupakan dunia bandar, di mana orang tinggal di kawasan bandar.
06:54
And at the same time, we're growing more animals,
Dan pada masa yang sama, kita membela lebih banyak haiwan,
06:57
and those animals are contributing food to humans as well.
dan haiwan tersebut menjadi penyumbang makanan kepada manusia juga.
07:01
So what we see
Jadi apa kita lihat
07:02
is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together.
adalah hubung kait antara haiwan-manusia itu semakin hari semakin rapat.
07:07
And this intensive agriculture of animals
Dan pertanian intensif haiwan
07:11
and this intensive increase in human populations
dan peningkatan intensif ini di dalam populasi manusia
07:14
living together on the same planet
hidup bersama di planet yang sama
07:16
is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur.
adalah campuran pelbagai perkara dimana wabak boleh berlaku dan memang berlaku.
07:21
We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks.
Kita akhirnya akan mempunyai lebih banyak lagi wabak sebegini.
07:24
So an emerging infection today is just a warning
Jadi jangkitan yang baru muncul hari ini hanyalah sabagai amaran
07:28
of what will happen in the future.
apa akan berlaku pada masa depan.
07:30
We have to make sure
Kita perlu memastikan
07:31
that that technical collaboration in the world
bahawa kerjasama teknikal sedunia
07:34
is there to work together
di mana semua perlu bekerja bersama
07:36
to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur
supaya kita dapat memahami wabak ini ketika berlakunnya
07:40
and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.
dan memberikan maklumat yang perlu dengan cepat untuk mengawalnya.
07:44
[Is the worst behind us?]
[Adakah wabak ini akan berakhir?]
07:46
I can't predict with accuracy.
Saya tidak boleh ramal tepat.
07:48
So all I can say is that we must all be prepared
Jadi apa boleh saya katakan ialah kita semua mesti bersedia
07:51
for the worst-case scenario.
untuk senario terburuk.
07:52
And at the same time,
Pada masa yang sama,
07:54
learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others
belajar cara bagaimana kita boleh lindungi diri dan orang lain
07:57
should we become a part of that epidemic.
sekiranya kita terjebak di dalam wabak tersebut.
08:00
[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[Untuk makluman lanjut, lawati: Pusat Kawalan dan Pencegahan Penyakit
08:03
World Health Organization]
Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia]
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