What we do (and don't) know about the coronavirus | David Heymann

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2020-03-05・ 7753    355


Visit http://TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more. What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus? Who's most at risk? How can you protect yourself? Public health expert David Heymann, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003, shares the latest findings about COVID-19 and what the future may hold. Recorded February 27, 2020 The TED Talks channel features the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. You're welcome to link to or embed these videos, forward them to others and share these ideas with people you know. For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), submit a Media Request here: http://media-requests.TED.com Follow TED on Twitter: http://twitter.com/TEDTalks Like TED on Facebook: http://facebook.com/TED Subscribe to our channel: http://youtube.com/TED

Instruction

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Traductor: Ana Loara Revisor: Silvina Katz
00:12
[As of the morning February 27, 2020,
[Al 27 de febrero de 2020
00:14
there were at least 82,000 confirmed cases worldwide of the coronavirus
se confirmaron al menos 82 000 casos de coronavirus
00:17
and 2,810 deaths from it.
y 2810 muertes por ello,
00:19
TED invited Dr. David Heymann to share the latest findings about the outbreak.]
TED invitó al Dr. Heymann para hablar de los últimos hallazgos sobre el brote.
00:22
[What happens if you get infected with the coronavirus?]
[¿Qué ocurre si te infectas con el coronavirus?]
00:25
This looks like a very mild disease, like a common cold,
Para la mayoría es una enfermedad bastante leve,
00:28
in the majority of people.
como un resfriado común.
00:30
There are certain people who get infected and have very serious illness;
Hay personas que se infectan y tienen una enfermedad muy grave,
00:34
among them are health workers.
y entre ellos el personal sanitario.
00:36
It's a very serious infection in them,
Para el personal sanitario es algo serio
00:38
as they get a higher dose than normal people,
ya que se exponen a una dosis más alta
00:40
and at the same time, they have no immunity.
y, a la vez, carecen de inmunidad.
00:42
So in the general population,
Para la población en general,
00:46
it's likely that the dose of virus that you receive when you are infected
parece ser que la dosis del virus que recibes cuando te infectas
00:51
is much less than the dose that a health worker would receive,
es mucho menor que para el personal sanitario,
00:54
health workers having more serious infections.
por lo que su infección es más grave.
00:56
So your infection would be less serious, hopefully.
Así pues, por suerte la de Uds. será más leve.
00:59
So that leaves the elderly and those with comorbidities
Eso implica que son las personas mayores y aquellos con comorbilidades
01:03
to really be the ones that we have to make sure
a lo que tenemos que asegurarnos
01:05
are taken care of in hospitals.
de poder cuidar en los hospitales.
01:07
[Who are the people who should be most concerned about this?]
[¿Quiénes deberían preocuparse más?]
01:12
Well, the most concerned are people
Bueno, son aquellos que,
01:14
who are, first of all, in developing countries
en primer lugar, viven en países en desarrollo
01:17
and who don't have access to good medical care
y no tienen acceso a una buena atención sanitaria
01:20
and may not have access at all to a hospital,
ni tampoco a los hospitales,
01:23
should an epidemic occur in their country.
en caso de que haya una epidemia en su país.
01:26
Those people would be at great risk,
Esas personas correrían peligro,
01:28
especially the elderly.
especialmente las personas mayores,
01:29
Elderly in all populations are at risk,
Las personas mayores en todas las poblaciones están en riesgo,
01:32
but especially those who can't get to oxygen.
más aún los que no tienen acceso a oxígeno.
01:35
In industrialized countries,
En países industrializados
01:36
it's the very elderly who have comorbidities,
son los muy ancianos con comorbilidades,
01:39
who have diabetes, who have other diseases,
como la diabetes u otra enfermedad,
01:41
who are at risk.
los que están en riesgo.
01:42
The general population doesn't appear to be at great risk.
La población general no parece ser un grupo de riesgo.
01:45
[What pre-existing medical conditions put people at higher risk?]
[¿Qué condiciones médicas preexistentes ponen a la gente en mayor riesgo?]
01:50
First of all,
Lo primero de todo,
01:51
pulmonary disease existing as a comorbidity is also important.
enfermedades pulmonares como cormobilidad.
01:55
In general, the elderly are at greater risk,
En general, las personas mayores corren mayor riesgo,
01:57
especially those over 70,
sobre todo los de más de 70 años,
01:59
because their immune systems are not as effective
dado que su sistema inmunológico no es tan eficaz
02:02
as they might have once been,
como lo habría sido antes,
02:04
and they are more susceptible to infections.
por lo que son más vulnerables a las infecciones.
02:07
In addition, in some instances in China,
Además, en algunos lugares de China
02:10
there's been a coinfection with influenza
ha habido una infección simultánea con la gripe
02:14
and at the same time,
y, al mismo tiempo,
02:15
there have been some bacterial superinfections
alguna sobreinfección bacteriana
02:17
on the pneumonias that are occurring.
en algunos de los casos de neumonía.
02:19
[Where can we find up-to-date information?]
[¿Dónde podemos encontrar información actualizada?]
02:22
The Center for Disease Control in Atlanta keeps track
El Centro para el Control de Enfermedades de Atlanta
02:25
and has updates on a regular basis on its website.
actualiza su sitio web con frecuencia.
02:29
Also, the World Health Organization in Geneva,
La Organización Mundial de la Salud en Ginebra,
02:31
which is coordinating many of the activities
que está coordinando muchas actividades
02:34
going on internationally,
a nivel internacional,
02:35
also has a website with daily updates.
tiene un sitio web actualizado a diario.
02:37
It's our responsibility to get that information as individuals,
Es nuestra responsabilidad llegar hasta esa información
02:41
so we understand
para comprender
02:42
and can make sure that we can contribute in our own way
y asegurarnos de que contribuimos
02:45
to prevention of major spread.
para prevenir una mayor propagación.
02:48
[You led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.
[Ud. lideró la respuesta mundial al brote de SARS del 2003.
02:50
How does this outbreak compare?]
¿Qué diferencia hay entre ambos?]
02:52
That's the same problem with all new infections.
Las nuevas infecciones comparten un problema.
02:54
This is an infection that's coming to humans
Es una infección que ahora afecta a los humanos,
02:57
who have never been exposed to this virus before.
que no se habían expuesto al virus antes.
03:00
They don't have any antibody protection,
No tienen anticuerpos contra dicha infección
03:02
and it's not clear whether their immune system
y no se sabe si el sistema imunológico
03:05
can handle this virus or not.
puede con este virus o no.
03:07
This is a virus that usually finds itself in bats or in other animals,
Es un virus que suele encontrarse en murciélagos u otros animales
03:11
and all of a sudden, it's in humans.
y ahora, de repente, infecta a humanos.
03:13
And humans just don't have experience with this virus.
Y los humanos no tienen experiencia con este virus.
03:17
But gradually,
Gradualmente,
03:18
we are beginning to learn a lot, as we did with SARS.
estamos aprendiendo mucho, tal como sucedió con el SARS.
03:21
And you know, there are certainly a larger number of deaths
Hay una mayor cantidad de muertes
03:24
than there were with SARS.
de las que hubo con el SARS.
03:26
But when you divide that by a denominator of persons who are infected,
No obstante, cuando lo divides por el denominador de los infectados,
03:30
there are many, many more persons infected than there were with SARS.
hay muchísimas más personas infectadas de las que hubo con el SARS.
03:34
The case fatality ratio,
En el SARS la tasa de letalidad,
03:36
that is the ratio of deaths to the numbers of cases in SARS,
es decir: la tasa de muertes entre el número de casos,
03:40
was about 10 percent.
era del 10 %.
03:42
With the current coronavirus, COVID-19,
Con el coronavirus, el COVID-19,
03:45
it is two percent or probably less.
es del 2 % o menos.
03:48
So it's a much less virulent virus,
Así pues, es un virus mucho menos virulento,
03:51
but it's still a virus that causes mortality,
pero es un virus que causa mortalidad,
03:53
and that's what we don't want entering human populations.
que es lo que queremos evitar para la población.
03:56
[Have we responded adequately at border crossings, such as airports?]
[¿Hemos respondido bien en fronteras como los aeropuertos?]
04:00
It's clearly understood that airports or any land borders
Está claro que los aeropuertos, o cualquier frontera terrestre,
04:04
cannot prevent a disease from entering.
no puede evitar el cruce de una enfermedad.
04:06
People in the incubation period can cross that border,
Aquellos en fase de incubación pueden cruzar la frontera,
04:09
can enter countries
entrar a países
04:11
and can then infect others when they become sick.
e infectar al ponerse enfermos.
04:14
So borders are not a means of preventing infections from entering a country
Así que las barreras no son para evitar que entre la infección
04:20
by checking temperatures.
comprobando la temperatura.
04:22
Borders are important because you can provide to people arriving
Son importantes porque se informa a la gente que llega
04:26
from areas that might be at risk of having had infection,
de las áreas en riesgo de haber sufrido un brote,
04:29
provide them with an understanding,
o de ofrecerles información,
04:31
either a printed understanding or a verbal understanding,
ya sea en papel o verbal,
04:34
of what the signs and symptoms are of this infection,
de los signos y los síntomas de dicha infección
04:37
and what they should do if they feel that they might be infected.
y qué deberían hacer si creen que podrían estar infectados.
04:41
[What's the timeline for a vaccine?]
[¿Cuál es el plazo para obtener una vacuna?]
04:44
Vaccines are under development right now,
Se están investigando vacunas,
04:46
there's a lot of research going on.
se está investigando mucho.
04:48
That research requires first that the vaccine be developed,
Esto requiere la elaboración de la vacuna,
04:52
then that it be studied for safety and effectiveness in animals,
después, un estudio en animales sobre su eficacia y su toxicidad,
04:57
who are challenged with the virus after they are vaccinated,
a los que se les inocula el virus tras haber sido vacunados.
05:00
and then it must go into human studies.
Después, el estudio se traslada al ser humano.
05:03
The animal studies have not yet begun,
El estudio en animales aún no ha comenzado,
05:05
but will soon begin for certain vaccines.
pero lo hará pronto con algunas vacunas.
05:07
And it's thought that by the end of the year,
Y se cree que, para finales de año
05:10
or early next year,
o principios del próximo,
05:11
there may be some candidate vaccines
habrá algunas vacunas candidatas
05:13
that can then be studied for licensing by regulatory agencies.
que se estudiarán para obtener la licencia de las agencias reguladoras.
05:18
So we're talking about at least a year until there's vaccine available
Hablamos, pues, de al menos un año hasta tener disponible una vacuna
05:22
that can be used in many populations.
que se pueda usar en la gran población.
05:25
[What questions about the outbreak are still unanswered?]
[¿Qué interrogantes sobre el brote siguen aún sin respuesta?]
05:29
It's clear we know how it transmits,
Sabemos cómo se transmite,
05:31
we don't know how easily it transmits in humans,
no sabemos qué fácil se contagia en humanos,
05:33
in communities or in unenclosed areas.
en comunidades o en zonas abiertas.
05:38
We know, for example,
Sabemos, por ejemplo,
05:39
that in the enclosed area of a cruise ship, it spread very easily.
que en zonas cerradas como un barco se propaga con gran facilidad.
05:43
We need to better understand
Necesitamos entender mejor
05:45
how it will spread once it gets into more open areas
cómo se propagará en zonas más abiertas
05:49
where people are exposed to people who might be sick.
donde la gente se expone a gente que podría estar enferma.
05:52
[What about the global response could be improved?]
[¿Cómo podría mejorarse la respuesta mundial?]
05:56
A major problem in the world today is that we look at outbreaks
Un gran problema hoy día es que, al ver los brotes
06:00
in developing countries
en países en vías de desarrollo,
06:01
as something that we need to go and stop.
pensamos en ir y detenerlo.
06:04
So when there's an outbreak of Ebola,
Así que, cuando hay un brote de Ébola,
06:06
we think "How can we go and stop this outbreak in the country?"
pensamos: "¿Cómo podemos detener el brote en ese pais?"
06:09
We don't think about "How can we help that country
No pensamos: "¿Cómo podemos ayudarlos
06:13
strengthen its capacity,
a reforzar sus medios
06:15
so that it can detect and respond to infections?"
para detectar y responder a las infecciones?"
06:18
So we haven't invested enough
No hemos invertido lo suficiente
06:21
in helping countries develop their core capacity in public health.
para ayudar a que esos países desarrollen su potencial en salud pública.
06:25
What we've done is invested in many mechanisms globally,
Lo que hemos hecho es invertir en mecanismos mundiales
06:29
which can provide support to other countries
que brindan apoyo a otros países
06:32
to go and help stop outbreaks.
para ir y ayudar a parar los brotes.
06:34
But we want to see a world where every country
Pero queremos un mundo donde cada país
06:36
can do its best to stop its own outbreaks.
haga lo que pueda para detener sus brotes.
06:38
[Will we see more emerging disease outbreaks in the future?]
[¿Veremos en un futuro más brotes como este ?]
06:41
Today, there are over seven billion people.
Hay más de 7 mil millones de personas.
06:43
And when those people come into the world,
Cuando alguien viene al mundo,
06:46
they demand more food,
demanda comida,
06:47
they demand a whole series of things
demanda una serie de cosas
06:49
and they live closer together.
y viven cerca unos de otros.
06:50
In fact, we're an urban world, where people live in urban areas.
De hecho, somos un mundo urbano donde la gente vive en zonas urbanas.
06:54
And at the same time, we're growing more animals,
Al mismo tiempo, criamos más animales
06:57
and those animals are contributing food to humans as well.
y esos animales proporcionan comida a los humanos.
07:01
So what we see
Lo que se ve es que
07:02
is that that animal-human interface is becoming closer and closer together.
la interrelación entre animales y humanos es cada vez más y más cercana.
07:07
And this intensive agriculture of animals
Y la ganadería intensiva
07:11
and this intensive increase in human populations
y el incremento intensivo de la población humana
07:14
living together on the same planet
que viven en el mismo planeta
07:16
is really a melting pot where outbreaks can occur and do occur.
es un caldo de cultivo donde los brotes se dan una y otra vez.
07:21
We will eventually have more and more of these outbreaks.
Acabaremos teniendo cada vez más brotes.
07:24
So an emerging infection today is just a warning
Una infección que emerge es solo un aviso
07:28
of what will happen in the future.
de lo que pasará en el futuro.
07:30
We have to make sure
Tenemos que asegurarnos
07:31
that that technical collaboration in the world
de que la colaboración técnica mundial
07:34
is there to work together
sirva para que trabajemos juntos
07:36
to make sure that we can understand these outbreaks when they occur
en asegurarnos que entendemos lo que sucede con estos brotes
07:40
and rapidly provide the information necessary to control them.
y compartamos con rapidez la información para controlarlos.
07:44
[Is the worst behind us?]
[¿Está lo peor por venir?]
07:46
I can't predict with accuracy.
No puedo predecirlo.
07:48
So all I can say is that we must all be prepared
Todo lo que puedo decir es que debemos estar preparados
07:51
for the worst-case scenario.
para lo peor que pueda pasar.
07:52
And at the same time,
Al mismo tiempo,
07:54
learn how we can protect ourselves and protect others
aprender cómo protegernos y proteger a otros
07:57
should we become a part of that epidemic.
en caso de ser parte de la epidemia.
08:00
[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[Visite: Centros para el Control y Prevención de Enfermedades
08:03
World Health Organization]
Organización Mundial de la Salud]
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