What if every satellite suddenly disappeared? - Moriba Jah

譯者: Veronica Wu 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

One day, without warning or apparent cause,

如果有一天， 在沒人注意到的時候，

all of humanity’s artificial satellites suddenly disappear.

所有人造衛星突然消失了，

The first to understand the situation

最先察覺到這個狀況的

are a handful of government and commercial operators.

會是少數的政府和商業衛星使用者。

But well before they have time to process what’s happened,

然而在他們還來不及會意的時候，

millions sitting on their couches become aware that something is amiss.

千百萬個坐在沙發上的人們 就已察覺事情不太對勁。

TV that’s broadcast from or routed through satellites dominate the market

透過衛星傳送的國際性電視節目 以及一些地方性的頻道

for international programming as well as some local channels,

是衛星市場的主要用戶，

so the disappearance causes immediate disruptions, worldwide.

所以人造衛星的消失 會立即造成全球電視轉播受到影響。

The next people affected are those traveling by air, sea, or land,

接著受影響的會是那些 在使用空、海或陸上交通的人，

as global positioning, navigation and timing services, have entirely ceased.

因為全球定位、導航 和顯示時間的服務會完全停擺。

Pilots, captains, and drivers have to determine their locations

飛行員、船長、和司機 需要用雷達和地圖

using analog instruments and maps.

來得知他們所在的位置。

Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get stopped, grounded, or returned to port.

飛機、船隻和陸運工具 會終止、停飛、或是返回港口。

In the meantime, air traffic controllers have a difficult task on their hands

同時，空中交通管制人員 會面臨棘手的任務，

to prevent plane crashes.

就是預防飛機失事。

Within hours, most of the planet’s traffic grinds to a halt.

幾小時內，地球上 大部分的交通運輸會停滯。

The effects aren’t limited to entertainment and travel.

影響不僅限於娛樂和旅行，

All sorts of machines, from heating and cooling systems to assembly lines,

所有機器，從冷、暖氣系統到生產線，

rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems,

都依賴極為準確的衛星時間系統，

and many have little-to-no backup options.

且很多幾乎沒有備案。

Stoplights and other traffic control systems stop synchronizing,

紅綠燈和其他交通管制系統停止同步，

so police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining cars

所以警察和見義勇為的人 會協助指揮還在行駛的車輛，

and prevent as many accidents as possible.

盡量避免車禍發生。

The most catastrophic impact is yet to come.

最災難性的影響還未到來——

Because in the next few hours, the world economy shuts down.

在接下來的幾小時之內， 全球經濟會停擺。

Satellite-based timestamps play a critical part in everything

從信用卡讀卡機和股票交易 到記錄轉帳的系統，

from credit card readers and stock exchanges

衛星時間在所有事情中

to the systems that keep track of transactions.

都扮演著重要的角色。

People are unable to withdraw cash or make electronic payments.

人們無法提領現金或使用電子支付。

Logistics and supply chains for crucial goods like food and medicine fragment,

食物和藥品等重要貨品 的物流和供應鏈中斷，

leaving people to survive on whatever is locally available.

使人們必須憑藉 當地可取得的東西維生。

Most countries declare a state of emergency

大部分的國家會宣布進入緊急狀態，

and call on the military to restore order.

且調動軍隊來恢復秩序。

That may take quite a while.

那可能會花不少時間。

Most navigation and communication systems are no longer operational,

大部分的導航和通訊系統 將無法使用，

so military chains of command may be in disarray.

所以軍隊的指揮系統會相當混亂。

Many troops, including those actively deployed, are left to their own devices.

許多部隊，包含在外執行任務者， 會沒有人指揮，各管各的。

Commanders of nuclear submarines and missile control centers

核子潛艇和飛彈管制中心的指揮官

wonder if the disruption is the result of a hostile attack.

無從得知中斷的情形 是否為惡意攻擊。

What sorts of decisions do they make with partial information?

根據不完整的資訊， 他們會下什麼決定？

Even in the best-case scenario,

即使是在最佳情況下，

our civilization gets set back by decades at the very least.

我們的文明至少會倒退幾十年。

That’s because, despite being a relatively new phenomenon,

那是因為人造衛星快速地取代了 傳統的長程技術，

satellites have quickly replaced more traditional long range technologies.

儘管這是一個新現象。

The combination of global positioning and internet

全球定位和網際網路的結合

has allowed for near-instant signals that can be synchronized worldwide.

使得近乎於即時的訊號 可以全球同步。

Many systems we use daily have been built upon this foundation.

許多我們日常使用的系統 都是建立在這個基礎上。

Going back to the communication systems of the mid-20th century

倒退到 20 世紀中期的通訊技術

would not be a simple matter.

不是件簡單的事。

In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt from the ground up.

在許多案例中， 他們會需要從零開始重建。

While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely,

在這種想像實驗中衛星突然 消失的情況不太可能發生，

there are two very real scenarios that could lead to the same results.

但有兩種非常真實的情境 可能導致這樣的結果。

The first is a solar flare so strong it fries satellite circuitry–

第一個情況是強烈的日閃焰

as well as many other devices and power grids around the world.

使衛星的電路以及全球各地 許多設備和電網因過熱而損壞。

And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.

第二種情況是衛星在軌道上碰撞 所產生的連環效應。

With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters,

約有 7,500 公噸故障的太空船、

使用過的推進器和廢棄的設備

以高達每小時 56,000 公里的相對速度

and discarded equipment orbiting our planet

at relative speeds up to 56,000 kilometers per hour,

繞著地球運行，

even small objects can be highly destructive.

此時即使是小小的物體 也可以有很大的破壞性。

A single collision in space could create thousands of new pieces of debris,

太空中的一個碰撞 可能製造數以千計的新碎片，

leading to a chain reaction.

引起連鎖效應。

Space is huge, but many of the thousands of satellites currently in orbit

宇宙很大，但正在軌道上運行、 數以千計的衛星中，

share the same orbital highways for their specific purposes.

有很多為了特定的目的， 共用相同的高速軌道。

And since most objects sent to space are not designed with disposal in mind,

且因為大部分送上太空的物體 都沒有廢棄處理的機制，

these highways only become more congested over time.

這些高速軌道只會越來越擁擠。

The good news is, we can protect ourselves by studying our solar system,

好消息是，我們可以藉由 研究太陽系來保護自己，

creating backup options for our satellite networks,

以及為衛星網路設計備案，

and cooperating to avoid an orbital tragedy of the commons.

並共同合作，避免軌道 面臨共有財悲劇。

The space kilometers above our heads is like our forests,

好幾公里之上的太空

就像是我們的森林、 海洋生物多樣性和乾淨的空氣，

the ocean’s biodiversity and clean air:

If we don't treat it as a finite resource,

如果我們不將它視為有限資源，

we may wake up one day to find we no longer have it at all.

有一天我們可能會突然發現 它已經不見了。