What if every satellite suddenly disappeared? - Moriba Jah

Translator: Xiang Liu Reviewer: Xi He

One day, without warning or apparent cause,

設想有一日，冇任何預警或者理由，

all of humanity’s artificial satellites suddenly disappear.

人類所有嘅人造衛星都突然消失。

The first to understand the situation

第一個發現呢個情況嘅，

are a handful of government and commercial operators.

會係少數嘅政府同商業運營商。

But well before they have time to process what’s happened,

但係，喺佢哋有時間處理事情之前，

millions sitting on their couches become aware that something is amiss.

無數坐喺沙發上嘅人就會意識到，有唔妥。

TV that’s broadcast from or routed through satellites dominate the market

因爲國際同本地電視節目

for international programming as well as some local channels,

係通過衛星廣播或傳送

so the disappearance causes immediate disruptions, worldwide.

衛星嘅消失會立即中斷

節目喺全球範圍內嘅播送。

The next people affected are those traveling by air, sea, or land,

跟住受到影響係個啲

正喺空中、海上或陸路上旅行嘅人，

as global positioning, navigation and timing services, have entirely ceased.

因為全球定位、導航同校時服務

已經完全終止。

Pilots, captains, and drivers have to determine their locations

飛行員、船長同駕駛員

要用模擬工具同地圖

using analog instruments and maps.

來確認佢哋嘅位置。

Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get stopped, grounded, or returned to port.

飛機、輪船同地面車輛

都會俾攔截、停飛或召回。

In the meantime, air traffic controllers have a difficult task on their hands

與此同時，空中交通管制員嘅任務艱鉅

to prevent plane crashes.

需要防止飛機相撞。

Within hours, most of the planet’s traffic grinds to a halt.

喺幾個鐘頭內，地球上大部分嘅交通

都會停止。

The effects aren’t limited to entertainment and travel.

人造衛星消失不但影響娛樂同交通。

All sorts of machines, from heating and cooling systems to assembly lines,

各種加熱、冷卻系統同流水線，

rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems,

都依賴於衛星嘅超精準計時系統，

and many have little-to-no backup options.

而且好多機器都冇後手。

Stoplights and other traffic control systems stop synchronizing,

紅綠燈同其他交通控制系統

唔再同步運行

so police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining cars

要靠警察同好心人來指揮交通，

and prevent as many accidents as possible.

以儘量避免事故。

The most catastrophic impact is yet to come.

但係，最大嘅災難仲未來。

Because in the next few hours, the world economy shuts down.

因為再過幾粒鐘，

世界經濟會停止運轉。

Satellite-based timestamps play a critical part in everything

卫星嘅时间戳，

从信用卡读卡器，股票交易

from credit card readers and stock exchanges

到追蹤交易等多個系統，

to the systems that keep track of transactions.

都有关键嘅作用。

People are unable to withdraw cash or make electronic payments.

民衆冇辦法提取現金，

亦冇辦法使用電子支付。

Logistics and supply chains for crucial goods like food and medicine fragment,

食品同药品等关键商品嘅

物流和供应链會破碎，

leaving people to survive on whatever is locally available.

民衆只能夠依靠当地嘅資源生存。

Most countries declare a state of emergency

大部分嘅國家會宣布進入警急狀態，

and call on the military to restore order.

並且派出軍隊來維持秩序，

That may take quite a while.

其中嘅過程，需要好長時間。

Most navigation and communication systems are no longer operational,

因爲多數導航同通訊系統唔再運行，

so military chains of command may be in disarray.

所以，軍事指揮可能會陷於混亂。

Many troops, including those actively deployed, are left to their own devices.

好多部队，包括個啲俾調派嘅，

都要各自執生。

Commanders of nuclear submarines and missile control centers

核潜艇和导弹控制中心嘅指挥官

wonder if the disruption is the result of a hostile attack.

會谂，呢种破坏係咪自於敵人嘅攻击。

What sorts of decisions do they make with partial information?

但係佢哋冇全部信息，點做決定？

Even in the best-case scenario,

即使係最好嘅情况下邊，

our civilization gets set back by decades at the very least.

我們嘅文明都會倒退至少幾十年

That’s because, despite being a relatively new phenomenon,

因為，雖然衛星係個相對新嘅技術，

satellites have quickly replaced more traditional long range technologies.

但佢已經迅速取代咗傳統嘅遠程技術。

The combination of global positioning and internet

全球定位結合互聯網使

has allowed for near-instant signals that can be synchronized worldwide.

全球範圍內，近乎實時嘅同步信號

成為可能。

Many systems we use daily have been built upon this foundation.

我哋日常使用嘅好多系統，

都係建立喺呢個基礎上。

Going back to the communication systems of the mid-20th century

番返去用20 世紀中期嘅通信系統

would not be a simple matter.

唔係一件簡單嘅事

In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt from the ground up.

好多情況下，呢啲設施要重新修建。

While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely,

雖然全部人造衛星都突然消失

唔係好可能，

there are two very real scenarios that could lead to the same results.

但係，有兩種結果相似，非常真實嘅可能。

The first is a solar flare so strong it fries satellite circuitry–

第一個係，強烈嘅太陽耀斑，

as well as many other devices and power grids around the world.

佢會炸毀衛星電路同

全球嘅好多設備和電網。

And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.

第二個係，繞行軌道內物體碰撞，

產生連鎖反應。

With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters,

有大概 7,500 公噸已報廢嘅航天器、

用過嘅助推器同廢棄設備

and discarded equipment orbiting our planet

以高達每小時 56,000 公里

at relative speeds up to 56,000 kilometers per hour,

嘅相對速度環繞緊地球，

even small objects can be highly destructive.

咁樣，小物體都可能有高度嘅破壞性。

A single collision in space could create thousands of new pieces of debris,

太空裏邊嘅一次碰撞，

可能會產生數千塊新碎片，

leading to a chain reaction.

從而導致連鎖反應。

Space is huge, but many of the thousands of satellites currently in orbit

宇宙好大，宜家有數千顆衛星在軌，

share the same orbital highways for their specific purposes.

其中好多因爲特定目的，用緊相同嘅軌道。

And since most objects sent to space are not designed with disposal in mind,

而且，由於多數俾送去太空嘅物體

喺設計時，都冇考慮到收尾點處理，

these highways only become more congested over time.

以後，呢哋軌道只會變得越來越逼。

The good news is, we can protect ourselves by studying our solar system,

好消息係，我哋可以通過研究太陽系

creating backup options for our satellite networks,

為衛星網絡設置備用選項，

同合作來避免公地悲劇。

and cooperating to avoid an orbital tragedy of the commons.

The space kilometers above our heads is like our forests,

我哋頭頂上嘅空間，

就好似我哋嘅森林、

the ocean’s biodiversity and clean air:

海洋嘅生物多樣性同潔淨嘅空氣

If we don't treat it as a finite resource,

如果我哋唔當佢係有限資源咁對待，

we may wake up one day to find we no longer have it at all.

咁某一日，我們可能會喺昏醒時，

發現佢已經唔存在。