What if every satellite suddenly disappeared? - Moriba Jah

Translator: Arvind Patil

One day, without warning or apparent cause,

One day, without warning or apparent cause,

all of humanity’s artificial satellites suddenly disappear.

all of humanity’s artificial satellites suddenly disappear

The first to understand the situation

The first to understand the situation

are a handful of government and commercial operators.

are a handful of government and commercial operators.

But well before they have time to process what’s happened,

But well before they have time to process what’s happened,

millions sitting on their couches become aware that something is amiss.

millions sitting on their couches become aware that something is amiss.

TV that’s broadcast from or routed through satellites dominate the market

TV that’s broadcast from or routed through satellites dominate the market.

for international programming as well as some local channels,

for international programming as well as some local channels

so the disappearance causes immediate disruptions, worldwide.

so the disappearance causes immediate disruptions, worldwide.

The next people affected are those traveling by air, sea, or land,

The next people affected are those traveling by air, sea, or land.

as global positioning, navigation and timing services, have entirely ceased.

as global positioning, navigation and timing services, have entirely ceased.

Pilots, captains, and drivers have to determine their locations

Pilots, captains, and drivers have to determine their locations

using analog instruments and maps.

using analog instruments and maps.

Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get stopped, grounded, or returned to port.

Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get stopped, grounded or returned to port.

In the meantime, air traffic controllers have a difficult task on their hands

In the meantime, air traffic controllers have a difficult task on their hands

to prevent plane crashes.

to prevent plane crashes.

Within hours, most of the planet’s traffic grinds to a halt.

Within hours, most of the planet’s traffic grinds to a halt.

The effects aren’t limited to entertainment and travel.

The effects aren’t limited to entertainment and travel.

All sorts of machines, from heating and cooling systems to assembly lines,

All sorts of machines, from heating and cooling systems to assembly lines,

rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems,

rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems,

and many have little-to-no backup options.

and many have little-to-ne backup options.

Stoplights and other traffic control systems stop synchronizing,

Stoplights and other traffic control systems stop synchronizing,

so police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining cars

so police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining cars

and prevent as many accidents as possible.

and prevent as many accidents as possible.

The most catastrophic impact is yet to come.

The most catastrophic impact is yet to come.

Because in the next few hours, the world economy shuts down.

Because in the next few hours, the world economy shuts down.

Satellite-based timestamps play a critical part in everything

Satellite-based timestamps play a critical part in everything

from credit card readers and stock exchanges

from credit card readers and stock exchanges

to the systems that keep track of transactions.

to the systems that keep track of transactions.

People are unable to withdraw cash or make electronic payments.

People are unable to withdraw cash or make electronic payments.

Logistics and supply chains for crucial goods like food and medicine fragment,

Logistics and supply chains for crucial good like food and medecine fragment,

leaving people to survive on whatever is locally available.

leaving people to survive on whatever is locally available.

Most countries declare a state of emergency

Most countries declare a state of emergency

and call on the military to restore order.

and call on the military to restore order.

That may take quite a while.

They may take quite a while

Most navigation and communication systems are no longer operational,

Most navigation and communication systems are no longer operational,

so military chains of command may be in disarray.

so military chains of command may be in disarray.

Many troops, including those actively deployed, are left to their own devices.

Many troops, including those actively deployed, are left to their own devices.

Commanders of nuclear submarines and missile control centers

Commanders of nuclear submarines and missile control centers

wonder if the disruption is the result of a hostile attack.

wonder if disruption is the result of a hostile attack

What sorts of decisions do they make with partial information?

What sorts of decisions do they make with partial information?

Even in the best-case scenario,

Even in the best-case scenario,

our civilization gets set back by decades at the very least.

our civilization gets set back by decades at the very least.

That’s because, despite being a relatively new phenomenon,

That’s because, despite being a relatively new phenomenon,

satellites have quickly replaced more traditional long range technologies.

satellites have quickly replaces more traditional long range technologies.

The combination of global positioning and internet

The combination of global positioning and internet

has allowed for near-instant signals that can be synchronized worldwide.

has allowed for near-instant signals that can be synchronized worldwide.

Many systems we use daily have been built upon this foundation.

Many systems we use daily have been built upon this foundation.

Going back to the communication systems of the mid-20th century

Going back to the communication systems of the mid-29th century

would not be a simple matter.

would not be a simple matter.

In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt from the ground up.

In many cases, they’d have to be rebuilt from the ground up

While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely,

While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely,

there are two very real scenarios that could lead to the same results.

there are two very real scenarios that could lead to the same results.

The first is a solar flare so strong it fries satellite circuitry–

The first is a solar flare so strong it fries satellite circuitry-

as well as many other devices and power grids around the world.

as well as many other devices and power grids around the world.

And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.

And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.

With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters,

With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters,

and discarded equipment orbiting our planet

and discarded equipment orbiting planet

at relative speeds up to 56,000 kilometers per hour,

at relative speeds up to 56,000 kilometers per hour,

even small objects can be highly destructive.

even small objects can be highly destructive.

A single collision in space could create thousands of new pieces of debris,

A single collision in space could create thousands of new pieces of debris,

leading to a chain reaction.

leading to a chain reaction.

Space is huge, but many of the thousands of satellites currently in orbit

Space is huge, but many of the thousands of satellites currently in orbit

share the same orbital highways for their specific purposes.

share the same orbital highways for their specific purposes.

And since most objects sent to space are not designed with disposal in mind,

And since most objects sent to space are not designed with disposal in mind,

these highways only become more congested over time.

these highways only become more congested over time.

The good news is, we can protect ourselves by studying our solar system,

The good news is, we can protect ourselves by studying our solar system,

creating backup options for our satellite networks,

creating backup options for our satellite networks,

and cooperating to avoid an orbital tragedy of the commons.

and cooperating to avoid an orbital tragedy of commons.

The space kilometers above our heads is like our forests,

The space kilometers above our heads is like our forests,

the ocean’s biodiversity and clean air:

the ocean’s biodiversity and clean air:

If we don't treat it as a finite resource,

If we don’t treat it as a finite resource,

we may wake up one day to find we no longer have it at all.

we may wake up one day to find we no longer have it all.