Capitalism will eat democracy -- unless we speak up | Yanis Varoufakis

翻译人员: Zhiting Chen 校对人员: Xiangyi Chen

Democracy.

民主。

In the West,

在西方，

we make a colossal mistake taking it for granted.

我们犯了巨大的错误， 认为民主是理所应当的。

We see democracy

我们没有把民主

not as the most fragile of flowers that it really is,

视为它本应该是的最脆弱的花朵，

but we see it as part of our society's furniture.

而是把它视为社会家具的一部分。

We tend to think of it as an intransigent given.

我们倾向于认为它是 无需妥协的赋予。

We mistakenly believe that capitalism begets inevitably democracy.

我们错误地相信 资本主义必然导致民主。

It doesn't.

然而并不是的。

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and his great imitators in Beijing

新加坡总理李光耀， 和他在北京的伟大模仿者们，

have demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt

在超出合理的怀疑声中证明了，

that it is perfectly possible to have a flourishing capitalism,

在没有民主的政治情况下，

spectacular growth,

资本主义可以以惊人的速度

while politics remains democracy-free.

繁荣起来。

Indeed, democracy is receding in our neck of the woods,

确实，民主在我们所在的区域 正在退步。

here in Europe.

就在欧洲，

Earlier this year, while I was representing Greece --

今年的早些时候， 当我作为财政部长带领希腊 --

the newly elected Greek government --

新选举产生的希腊政府 --

in the Eurogroup as its Finance Minister,

在欧元集团参加会议。

I was told in no uncertain terms that our nation's democratic process --

我被明确地告知 我们国家的民主过程 --

our elections --

我们的选举 --

could not be allowed to interfere

不被允许介入

with economic policies that were being implemented in Greece.

将要在希腊实施的经济政策。

At that moment,

在那一刻，

I felt that there could be no greater vindication of Lee Kuan Yew,

我感到这是对李光耀总理，

or the Chinese Communist Party,

或者是中国共产党来说 是绝佳的辩护，

indeed of some recalcitrant friends of mine who kept telling me

事实上一些反对我的朋友 不断地告诉我，

that democracy would be banned if it ever threatened to change anything.

民主会被禁止， 当它威胁要改变些什么的时候。

Tonight, here, I want to present to you

今天，在这里，我想要向你们展示，

an economic case for an authentic democracy.

一个关于真实民主的经济案例。

I want to ask you to join me in believing again

我想要邀请你们加入我 来一起重新相信，

that Lee Kuan Yew,

李光耀、

the Chinese Communist Party

中国共产党、

and indeed the Eurogroup

和欧元集团

are wrong in believing that we can dispense with democracy --

错误地相信 我们可以不需要民主 --

that we need an authentic, boisterous democracy.

我们需要真正的和 强有力的民主。

And without democracy,

没有民主的话，

our societies will be nastier,

我们的社会就会是污秽龌龊的，

our future bleak

我们的未来会是惨淡的

and our great, new technologies wasted.

我们伟大的新科技会被浪费。

Speaking of waste,

提到浪费，

allow me to point out an interesting paradox

请允许我来指出 一个正在威胁着我们的经济的

that is threatening our economies as we speak.

有意思的悖论。

I call it the twin peaks paradox.

我称之为双峰悖论。

One peak you understand --

第一个高峰你们理解 --

you know it, you recognize it --

你们知道，你们认识它 --

is the mountain of debts that has been casting a long shadow

它是一座债务的高山， 投射着长长的阴影，

over the United States, Europe, the whole world.

遍及美国，欧洲，乃至全球。

We all recognize the mountain of debts.

我们都认识到这座债务高山。

But few people discern its twin.

但很少人意识到它有一个双胞胎。

A mountain of idle cash

一座闲置现金堆砌而成的山峰。

belonging to rich savers and to corporations,

它来自于有钱人和大公司的存款。

too terrified to invest it

他们（有钱人和大公司）害怕去投资，

into the productive activities that can generate the incomes

去投资可以产生收入的 生产活动。

from which you can extinguish the mountain of debts

这样的生产活动能够 尝清那座债务高山，

and which can produce all those things that humanity desperately needs,

还可以制造出 人类急需的物品，

like green energy.

比如绿色能源。

Now let me give you two numbers.

现在，让我向你们 展示两个数字。

Over the last three months,

在过去的三个月里，

in the United States, in Britain and in the Eurozone,

在美国， 英国和欧元区，

we have invested, collectively, 3.4 trillion dollars

我们投入了总计 3.4 万亿美元

on all the wealth-producing goods --

在能够创造财富的物品上--

things like industrial plants, machinery,

例如工业厂房，机械，

office blocks, schools,

办公大楼，学校，

roads, railways, machinery, and so on and so forth.

道路，铁路，机器， 等等，等等。

$3.4 trillion sounds like a lot of money

3.4 万亿美元听起来 似乎是一笔巨款

until you compare it to the $5.1 trillion

直到你拿去跟在相同国家中、

that has been slushing around in the same countries,

在我们的金融机构中，

in our financial institutions,

闲置的5.1万亿美元比较。

doing absolutely nothing during the same period

在同样的时间段内， 什么也没做，

except inflating stock exchanges and bidding up house prices.

除了让股票市场膨胀， 让房产价格上涨。

So a mountain of debt and a mountain of idle cash

所以一座债务大山， 和一座闲置现金大山，

form twin peaks, failing to cancel each other out

形成了两座山峰， 没能够让正常的市场运营

through the normal operation of the markets.

来使两者平衡。

The result is stagnant wages,

结果就是薪酬停滞，

more than a quarter of 25- to 54-year-olds in America, in Japan and in Europe

有超过四分之一的25-54岁的

out of work.

美国人、日本人、 和欧洲人没有工作。

And consequently, low aggregate demand,

随之而来地，是总需求的降低，

which in a never-ending cycle,

循环往复，

reinforces the pessimism of the investors,

加剧投资者对前景的悲观，

who, fearing low demand, reproduce it by not investing --

投资者们惧怕着低需求量， 于是就不再投资 --

exactly like Oedipus' father,

就像俄狄浦斯王的父亲，

who, terrified by the prophecy of the oracle

神预言他的儿子长大之后会杀了他，

that his son would grow up to kill him,

而他对此感到害怕，

unwittingly engineered the conditions

于是不知不觉中创造了各种条件，

that ensured that Oedipus, his son, would kill him.

以至于后来俄狄浦斯王， 他的儿子，真的杀了他。

This is my quarrel with capitalism.

这是我对于资本主义的争论。

Its gross wastefulness,

它的挥霍无度，

all this idle cash,

所有闲置的现金，

should be energized to improve lives,

应该用于改善人民的生活，

to develop human talents,

发展人类的才能，

and indeed to finance all these technologies,

和真正地去资助所有的科技，

green technologies,

绿色科技，

which are absolutely essential for saving planet Earth.

这对于保护地球来说 绝对是很重要的。

Am I right in believing that democracy might be the answer?

相信民主可能是这一切的 答案的我是对的吗？

I believe so,

我相信是的，

but before we move on,

但在我们继续之前，

what do we mean by democracy?

我们所说的民主是什么？

Aristotle defined democracy

亚里士多德将民主定义为

as the constitution in which the free and the poor,

是一个体制，在这个体制中， 政府是由占着绝大多数比例的

being in the majority, control government.

自由人和穷人来掌控的。

Now, of course Athenian democracy excluded too many.

当然，雅典时代的民主制度 把很多人排除在外。

Women, migrants and, of course, the slaves.

女人，移民以及， 当然地，奴隶。

But it would be a mistake

但是，如果仅基于 有多少人被排除在外，

to dismiss the significance of ancient Athenian democracy

就去否定古老的 雅典民主制度的意义的话，

on the basis of whom it excluded.

这么做是错误的。

What was more pertinent,

雅典民主中更值得肯定的，

and continues to be so about ancient Athenian democracy,

而且时至今日仍值得肯定的，

was the inclusion of the working poor,

是它包括了贫穷的劳工们，

who not only acquired the right to free speech,

授予他们不仅仅言论自由，

but more importantly, crucially,

更重要的，最重要的是，

they acquired the rights to political judgments

给予他们政治批判的权利。

that were afforded equal weight

他们在国家事务政策的制定过程中

in the decision-making concerning matters of state.

被赋予同等的权利。

Now, of course, Athenian democracy didn't last long.

现在，当然， 雅典民主没有延续下去。

Like a candle that burns brightly, it burned out quickly.

就像燃烧得十分明亮的蜡烛， 很快就燃烧殆尽。

And indeed,

确实，

our liberal democracies today do not have their roots in ancient Athens.

我们当今的自由民主制度 并不是产自于古代雅典。

They have their roots in the Magna Carta,

他们产自于大宪章、

in the 1688 Glorious Revolution,

1688年的光荣革命，

indeed in the American constitution.

还有美国宪法。

Whereas Athenian democracy was focusing on the masterless citizen

雅典民主集中于无主的平民，

and empowering the working poor,

和赋予贫穷的劳工们权力，

our liberal democracies are founded on the Magna Carta tradition,

我们的自由民主制度 是建立在大宪章的传统上，

which was, after all, a charter for masters.

一个为富人所建立的宪章。

And indeed, liberal democracy only surfaced when it was possible

确实，自由民主， 只有在它可以完全

to separate fully the political sphere from the economic sphere,

分割政治领域和经济领域，

so as to confine the democratic process fully in the political sphere,

从而把民主过程 限定在政治领域，

leaving the economic sphere --

使经济领域 —

the corporate world, if you want --

商业企业，如果你想的话 --

as a democracy-free zone.

成为一个不受民主限制的地带 的时候浮现。

Now, in our democracies today,

现在，在我们当今的民主，

this separation of the economic from the political sphere,

经济领域和政治领域的分离，

the moment it started happening,

当它开始发生的时候，

it gave rise to an inexorable, epic struggle between the two,

这种分离引发了两者间 无情的、史诗般的较量，

with the economic sphere colonizing the political sphere,

经济领域侵占统治着政治领域，

eating into its power.

把政治领域的权力吞噬掉。

Have you wondered why politicians are not what they used to be?

你们有没有想过， 为什么政治人物不是他们原有的样子？

It's not because their DNA has degenerated.

这并不是因为他们DNA退化了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It is rather because one can be in government today and not in power,

而是因为，今天在政府里面的人 并没有权力，

because power has migrated from the political to the economic sphere,

因为权力已经从政治领域转移到了

which is separate.

分离的经济领域中。

Indeed,

确实，

I spoke about my quarrel with capitalism.

我说出了我对资本主义的争论。

If you think about it,

如果你们仔细想想，

it is a little bit like a population of predators,

这有点像一群肉食动物，

that are so successful in decimating the prey that they must feed on,

成功地大批杀害了 它们赖以生存的猎物，

that in the end they starve.

最终自己挨饿。

Similarly,

同理，

the economic sphere has been colonizing and cannibalizing the political sphere

经济领域殖民统治 并蚕食了政治领域，

to such an extent that it is undermining itself,

在这样的一种状况下 逐渐削弱了自己，

causing economic crisis.

造成了经济危机。

Corporate power is increasing,

企业的力量正在崛起，

political goods are devaluing,

而政治产出正在贬值，

inequality is rising,

不平等正在上升，

aggregate demand is falling

总需求正在降低，

and CEOs of corporations are too scared to invest the cash of their corporations.

大公司的总裁们害怕 用他们公司的资金进行投资。

So the more capitalism succeeds in taking the demos out of democracy,

资本主义越是成功地把人民群众 从民主中剔除，

the taller the twin peaks

两座山峰就会越来越高，

and the greater the waste of human resources

人力资源和人类的财富

and humanity's wealth.

也就更多地被浪费掉了。

Clearly, if this is right,

无疑的，如果这是正确的，

we must reunite the political and economic spheres

我们必须重新把 政治和经济领域连结在一起，

and better do it with a demos being in control,

并且让人民群众来掌控着 使它变得更好。

like in ancient Athens except without the slaves

就像是古代的雅典民主， 在没有奴隶，

or the exclusion of women and migrants.

也不把女人和移民排除在外 的前提下。

Now, this is not an original idea.

现在，这不是一个新颖的想法。

The Marxist left had that idea 100 years ago

马克思主义左翼分子 在100多年前就有这样的想法，

and it didn't go very well, did it?

然而并没有做得很好，不是吗？

The lesson that we learned from the Soviet debacle

我们从苏联解体中 吸取到的教训是

is that only by a miracle will the working poor be reempowered,

只有当贫穷的劳工们被重新授权， 奇迹才会发生。

as they were in ancient Athens,

就像古代雅典时代那样，

without creating new forms of brutality and waste.

没有制造新形式的暴行和浪费。

But there is a solution:

但有现在有一个另外的解决方案：

eliminate the working poor.

消灭贫穷的劳工。

Capitalism's doing it

资本主义正在这样做，

by replacing low-wage workers with automata, androids, robots.

通过用自动装置，安卓系统，机器人 来取代低薪的劳工。

The problem is

问题是，

that as long as the economic and the political spheres are separate,

只要经济和政治领域是分离的，

automation makes the twin peaks taller,

自动化会让两座山峰越来越高，

the waste loftier

浪费会更加巨大，

and the social conflicts deeper,

社会矛盾会加剧，

including --

包括 --

soon, I believe --

很快，我相信 --

in places like China.

在像中国这样的地方。

So we need to reconfigure,

因此，我们需要重新装配，

we need to reunite the economic and the political spheres,

我们需要使经济和政治领域 连结在一块，

but we'd better do it by democratizing the reunified sphere,

但我们更应该要做的，是使那块 重新团结在一起的领域民主化，

lest we end up with a surveillance-mad hyperautocracy

以免我们最终落入 监视狂般的超级独裁政权，

that makes The Matrix, the movie, look like a documentary.

让电影黑客帝国， 看起来像是纪录片。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So the question is not whether capitalism will survive

所以，问题并不是资本主义能否在

the technological innovations it is spawning.

在它推动的科技创新中存活下来。

The more interesting question

更有趣的问题是，

is whether capitalism will be succeeded by something resembling a Matrix dystopia

资本主义是否会被 像是黑客帝国这样的反乌托邦社会取代，

or something much closer to a Star Trek-like society,

或是被更类似于 星际迷航的社会取代，

where machines serve the humans

由机器来服务人类，

and the humans expend their energies exploring the universe

人们把精力花费在探索宇宙当中，

and indulging in long debates about the meaning of life

和沉迷于冗长的 有关于在某些古代，例如雅典时代的，

in some ancient, Athenian-like, high tech agora.

和高科技集市当中生命的意义。

I think we can afford to be optimistic.

我想，我们能够乐观起来。

But what would it take,

但是像星际迷航一样的乌托邦，

what would it look like

而不是黑客帝国那样的反乌托邦，

to have this Star Trek-like utopia, instead of the Matrix-like dystopia?

看起来是怎么样的呢？ 而创造它需要些什么呢？

In practical terms,

实际上，

allow me to share just briefly,

请允许我简略地

a couple of examples.

分享一些例子。

At the level of the enterprise,

在企业层面，

imagine a capital market,

试想一个资本市场，

where you earn capital as you work,

在其中你工作赚取资本，

and where your capital follows you from one job to another,

你的资本跟着你， 从一个工作到下一个工作，

from one company to another,

从一个公司到下一个公司，

and the company --

而这个公司--

whichever one you happen to work at at that time --

你正巧在那时工作的那间公司--

is solely owned by those who happen to work in it at that moment.

被某个正巧在那里工作的人 全权拥有。

Then all income stems from capital, from profits,

所有的收益流，从资本，到收益，

and the very concept of wage labor becomes obsolete.

以及雇佣劳动的概念都会被废弃。

No more separation between those who own but do not work in the company

消除掉不工作却拥有着公司 和在公司工作

and those who work but do not own the company;

却不曾拥有这间公司之间的人的间距，

no more tug-of-war between capital and labor;

消除掉资本和劳动之间的 拔河比赛；

no great gap between investment and saving;

消除掉投资和存款间的 巨大缺口；

indeed, no towering twin peaks.

最后，两个高耸的山峰 就会消失。

At the level of the global political economy,

在全球政治经济学层面，

imagine for a moment

试想某个时刻，

that our national currencies have a free-floating exchange rate,

我们的国家货币有一个 自由浮动的兑换汇率，

with a universal, global, digital currency,

伴随着一个通用的， 全球的，电子的，

one that is issued by the International Monetary Fund,

由国际货币基金组织，

the G-20,

二十国集团G20所发行的，

on behalf of all humanity.

代表全人类的货币。

And imagine further

并且进一步想象一下，

that all international trade is denominated in this currency --

所有的跨国交易 都用这种货币来标价 --

let's call it "the cosmos,"

我们称它为 “宇宙币”，

in units of cosmos --

用宇宙币为单元--

with every government agreeing to be paying into a common fund

每个政府都会同意 根据他们国家的贸易逆差，

a sum of cosmos units proportional to the country's trade deficit,

或是根据他们国家的贸易顺差，

or indeed to a country's trade surplus.

来向一个共同基金 投入成比例的宇宙币。

And imagine that that fund is utilized to invest in green technologies,

试想这个基金 是被用于投资绿色科技，

especially in parts of the world where investment funding is scarce.

尤其是在世界上 缺乏投资基金的地方。

This is not a new idea.

这不是一个新的想法。

It's what, effectively, John Maynard Keynes proposed

实际上，这是约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯

in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference.

在1944年的布莱顿森林会议上 所提出来的。

The problem is

但问题是，

that back then, they didn't have the technology to implement it.

在那时，他们没有科技去实现它。

Now we do,

现在我们有了，

especially in the context of a reunified political-economic sphere.

尤其是在一个重新连结的 政治和经济领域的背景下。

The world that I am describing to you

我向你们描述的这个世界，

is simultaneously libertarian,

同时是自由的，

in that it prioritizes empowered individuals,

因为它使被赋予权力的 个体们优先化，

Marxist,

马克思主义，

since it will have confined to the dustbin of history

由于它将局限于历史的垃圾箱，

the division between capital and labor,

资本和劳动之间的分割，

and Keynesian,

还有凯恩斯主义，

global Keynesian.

全球化的凯恩斯主义。

But above all else,

总的来说，

it is a world in which we will be able to imagine an authentic democracy.

它是一个我们能够想象的， 一个真正的民主世界。

Will such a world dawn?

这样的世界会出现吗？

Or shall we descend into a Matrix-like dystopia?

或者我们会沦落到变成 一个黑客帝国般的反乌托邦吗？

The answer lies in the political choice that we shall be making collectively.

答案就在我们将要共同做出的 政治选择中。

It is our choice,

这是我们的选择，

and we'd better make it democratically.

我们最好用民主的方法 来进行选择。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Bruno Giussani: Yanis ...

布鲁诺·吉桑尼：亚尼斯 ...

It was you who described yourself in your bios as a libertarian Marxist.

你在自我介绍中称自己为 自由派马克思主义者。

What is the relevance of Marx's analysis today?

马克思主义与今天的演讲 有怎样的相关性呢？

Yanis Varoufakis: Well, if there was any relevance in what I just said,

亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯： 如果与我刚刚的演讲内容相关，

then Marx is relevant.

马克思主义就是与此相关的。

Because the whole point of reunifying the political and economic is --

因为重新连结 政治和经济最主要的意义在于—

if we don't do it,

如果我们不这么做，

then technological innovation is going to create

那么科技创新就会促使

such a massive fall in aggregate demand,

总需求呈现大幅下跌，

what Larry Summers refers to as secular stagnation.

也就是拉瑞·萨默斯所说的 长期性经济停滞。

With this crisis migrating from one part of the world,

随着这个危机 从世界某个区域向外扩散，

as it is now,

就像现在这样，

it will destabilize not only our democracies,

它将使得我们的民主不稳定，

but even the emerging world that is not that keen on liberal democracy.

甚至是那些不是特别热衷于自由民主的 新兴国家。

So if this analysis holds water, then Marx is absolutely relevant.

如果这个论述成立的话， 那么马克思主义绝对是相关的。

But so is Hayek,

但同时哈耶克，

that's why I'm a libertarian Marxist,

这就是为什么 我是一个自由派马克思主义者，

and so is Keynes,

还有凯恩斯，

so that's why I'm totally confused.

这也就是为什么 我自己都感到不清醒了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

BG: Indeed, and possibly we are too, now.

BG：确实是，可能 我们现在也很迷惑。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

YV: If you are not confused, you are not thinking, OK?

YV: 如果你没有感到困惑， 说明你没有思考，对吧？

BG: That's a very, very Greek philosopher kind of thing to say --

BG：这是非常，非常 希腊哲学家一样的看法 --

YV: That was Einstein, actually --

YV：实际上那是爱因斯坦 --

BG: During your talk you mentioned Singapore and China,

BG：在你的演讲中， 你提到了新加坡和中国，

and last night at the speaker dinner,

还有在昨天晚上的演讲嘉宾晚宴上，

you expressed a pretty strong opinion about how the West looks at China.

你对西方是如何看待中国的 表达了非常强烈的观点。

Would you like to share that?

你愿意分享一下吗？

YV: Well, there's a great degree of hypocrisy.

YV：好吧，这有 很大程度上的虚伪。

In our liberal democracies, we have a semblance of democracy.

在我们的自由民主制度下， 一种民主的假象。

It's because we have confined, as I was saying in my talk,

因为我们被限制了， 正如我在演讲中所说的，

democracy to the political sphere,

民主仅在于政治领域，

while leaving the one sphere where all the action is --

然而一切活动发生的那个领域 --

the economic sphere --

经济领域 --

a completely democracy-free zone.

成为了完全不民主的区域。

In a sense,

在某种意义上，

if I am allowed to be provocative,

用比较前瞻的话说就是，

China today is closer to Britain in the 19th century.

中国今天就像是19世纪的英国。

Because remember,

因为请记得，

we tend to associate liberalism with democracy --

我们想要把自由主义和民主 连在一起的意图 --

that's a mistake, historically.

是错误的，历史上来说。

Liberalism, liberal, it's like John Stuart Mill.

自由主义，自由， 就像是约翰·斯图加特·密尔。

John Stuart Mill was particularly skeptical about the democratic process.

约翰·斯图加特·密尔对于民主过程 持非常怀疑的观点。

So what you are seeing now in China is a very similar process

所以你所看到的现代中国的发展， 就是一个跟英国在工业革命时期

to the one that we had in Britain during the Industrial Revolution,

非常相似的发展过程，

especially the transition from the first to the second.

尤其是从第一次工业革命 和第二次工业革命的之间的过渡期。

And to be castigating China

所以对中国在

for doing that which the West did in the 19th century,

做西方社会19世纪做过的事

smacks of hypocrisy.

而进行苛责是很虚伪的。

BG: I am sure that many people here are wondering about your experience

BG：我想这里的很多人 都对你今年早期

as the Finance Minister of Greece earlier this year.

出任希腊财政部长的经验感到好奇。

YV: I knew this was coming.

YV：我知道这个问题会出现的。

BG: Yes.

BG：是的。

BG: Six months after,

BG：在六个月之后，

how do you look back at the first half of the year?

你是怎样看待今年前半年的经历的？

YV: Extremely exciting, from a personal point of view,

YV：就我个人来看，非常兴奋，

and very disappointing,

也很失望，

because we had an opportunity to reboot the Eurozone.

因为我们有机会重振欧元区。

Not just Greece, the Eurozone.

不只是希腊，是欧洲。

To move away from the complacency

走出自满

and the constant denial that there was a massive --

和不断地否认欧洲以前已经出现了巨大的 --

and there is a massive architectural fault line

和现在正在发生的巨大的结构上的裂痕，

going through the Eurozone,

它横穿着欧洲，

which is threatening, massively, the whole of the European Union process.

沉重地威胁着整个欧盟进程。

We had an opportunity on the basis of the Greek program --

我们有一个基于希腊项目的机会 --

which by the way,

顺便一提，

was the first program to manifest that denial --

是第一个证明那种否定的存在，

to put it right.

并想要解决它的项目。

And, unfortunately,

不幸的是，

the powers in the Eurozone,

因为欧元区的权势，

in the Eurogroup,

欧元集团的权势，

chose to maintain denial.

他们选择继续否认这个问题。

But you know what happens.

但是你知道这会导致什么。

This is the experience of the Soviet Union.

苏联的经验告诉过我们。

When you try to keep alive

当你想要让已经无法存活的经济系统

an economic system that architecturally cannot survive,

得以继续存活，

through political will and through authoritarianism,

通过政治意愿和霸权主义这样的方式，

you may succeed in prolonging it,

你也许能够成功地将它延迟，

but when change happens

但是当转变发生的时候，

it happens very abruptly and catastrophically.

便会是突发的，而且是灾难性的。

BG: What kind of change are you foreseeing?

BG：你预见到怎样的转变呢？

YV: Well, there's no doubt

YV：嗯，无异议的是

that if we don't change the architecture of the Eurozone,

如果我们不改变欧元区的结构，

the Eurozone has no future.

欧元区是没有未来的。

BG: Did you make any mistakes when you were Finance Minister?

BG：当你在做希腊财长的时候有做过错误的决定吗？

YV: Every day.

YV：每一天。

BG: For example? YV: Anybody who looks back --

BG：比如？ YV：任何人回看过往的时候 --

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

No, but seriously.

不，我是说真的。

If there's any Minister of Finance, or of anything else for that matter,

如果任何财政部长， 或是任何与此有相关的人，

who tells you after six months in a job,

告诉你在六个月的任期后，

especially in such a stressful situation,

尤其是在这样压力巨大的情况下，

that they have made no mistake, they're dangerous people.

他们没做错过任何事， 说明他们是非常危险的。

Of course I made mistakes.

当然我做过很多错误的事。

The greatest mistake was to sign the application

最错误的事，

for the extension of a loan agreement

就是在2月底，

in the end of February.

签署了申请延长债务协议的申请书。

I was imagining

当时我想象着，

that there was a genuine interest on the side of the creditors

债权方是真的有兴趣来

to find common ground.

寻找一致。

And there wasn't.

可是并没有。

They were simply interested in crushing our government,

他们的兴趣仅仅是压倒我们的政府，

just because they did not want

就因为他们不想要

to have to deal with the architectural fault lines

去处理横贯欧元区的

that were running through the Eurozone.

巨大的裂痕。

And because they didn't want to admit

他们也不想承认，

that for five years they were implementing a catastrophic program in Greece.

在过去的五年里 他们在希腊实施了灾难性的计划。

We lost one-third of our nominal GDP.

我们失去了三分之一名义上的GDP。

This is worse than the Great Depression.

这比大萧条时期更加惨烈。

And no one has come clean

没有任何三驾马车里的债权人，

from the troika of lenders that have been imposing this policy

坦白承认实施这样的政策

to say, "This was a colossal mistake."

“是一个巨大的错误。”

BG: Despite all this,

BG：除了这些，

and despite the aggressiveness of the discussion,

除了这些激进的讨论，

you seem to be remaining quite pro-European.

你似乎还是比较赞成欧洲一体化的。

YV: Absolutely.

YV：绝对是的。

Look, my criticism of the European Union and the Eurozone

我对欧盟和欧元区的批判

comes from a person who lives and breathes Europe.

来自于生活在欧洲的个人经验。

My greatest fear is that the Eurozone will not survive.

我最大的恐惧是欧元区无法存活下去。

Because if it doesn't,

因为如果欧元区无法存活，

the centrifugal forces that will be unleashed

那么离心力就会被释放出来，

will be demonic,

是魔鬼般的释放，

and they will destroy the European Union.

最终将会摧毁欧盟。

And that will be catastrophic not just for Europe

不仅对欧洲，对全球经济来说

but for the whole global economy.

也将会是灾难性的。

We are probably the largest economy in the world.

我们可能是世界上最大的经济体。

And if we allow ourselves

如果我们允许自己

to fall into a route of the postmodern 1930's,

走上后现代1930年代的老路，

which seems to me to be what we are doing,

虽然在我看来我们现在就在走着，

then that will be detrimental

那对欧洲的未来，和非欧洲国家的未来，

to the future of Europeans and non-Europeans alike.

都会是有害的。

BG: We definitely hope you are wrong on that point.

BG：我们真的希望在这点上你错了。

Yanis, thank you for coming to TED.

亚尼斯，谢谢你来到TED。

YV: Thank you.

YV：谢谢

(Applause)

（鼓掌）