Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities

61,681 views ・ 2011-08-08

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Miloš Vodogaz Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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Klimatske promene već predstavljaju značajnu temu
00:17
and it's getting heavier
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koja postaje sve ozbiljnija
00:19
because we're understanding
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zato što počinjemo da shvatamo
00:21
that we need to do more than we are.
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da moramo činiti više nego što sada radimo.
00:23
We're understanding, in fact,
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Mi shvatamo, zapravo,
00:25
that those of us who live in the developed world
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da bi oni među nama, koji žive u razvijenom svetu
00:27
need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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trebali nastojati da eliminišu naše emisije štetnih gasova.
00:30
That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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O tome se, blago rečeno, trenutno ne raspravlja.
00:33
And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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I pomalo deluje zaprepašćujuće
00:35
when we look at what is there in reality today
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kada pogledamo današnju realnost
00:38
and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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i veličinu problema sa kojim se susrećemo.
00:41
And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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I kada imamo zaprepašćujuće probleme pred nama,
00:44
we tend to seek simple answers.
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obično tragamo za jednostavnim odgovorima.
00:47
And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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Mislim da smo to uradili i sa klimatskim promenama.
00:50
We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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Tražimo odakle dolaze emisije gasova --
00:52
they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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a oni potiču iz naših izduvnih cevi, dimnjaka i tako dalje,
00:55
and we say, okay, well the problem is
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tada mi kažemo, u redu, problem je
00:57
that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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što emisije dolaze iz fosilnih goriva koja sagorevamo,
00:59
so therefore, the answer must be
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stoga, odgovor mora biti
01:02
to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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u zameni tih fosilnih goriva čistim izvorima energije.
01:05
And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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I dok mi, naravno, imamo potrebu za čistom energijom,
01:08
I would put to you that it's possible
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naglasio bih da je moguće
01:10
that by looking at climate change
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kako se, bavljenjem klimatskim promenama
01:12
as a clean energy generation problem,
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kao problemom stvaranja čiste energije,
01:14
we're in fact setting ourselves up
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zapravo udaljavamo
01:16
not to solve it.
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od rešenja.
01:18
And the reason why
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Razlog tome
01:20
is that we live on a planet
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je činjenica da mi živimo na planeti
01:22
that is rapidly urbanizing.
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koja se ubrzano urbanizuje.
01:24
That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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Ovo ne bi trebalo biti novost za bilo koga od nas.
01:26
However, it's hard sometimes
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Međutim, ponekad je teško
01:28
to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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zapamtiti razmere te urbanizacije.
01:31
By mid-century,
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Do polovine ovog veka,
01:33
we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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imaćemo oko osam milijardi ljudi -- možda i više --
01:36
living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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koji će živeti u gradovima ili na dan putovanja od nekog grada.
01:39
We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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Bićemo izričito urbana vrsta.
01:42
In order to provide
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U cilju obezbeđivanja
01:44
the kind of energy that it would take
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vrste energije koja je potrebna
01:46
for eight billion people living in cities
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da osam milijardi ljudi živi u gradovima
01:48
that are even somewhat like the cities
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koji bar donekle nalikuju gradovima
01:50
that those of us in the global North live in today,
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u kakvima danas živimo mi na severnoj hemisferi,
01:52
we would have to generate
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morali bismo proizvesti
01:54
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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zapanjujuću količinu energije.
01:56
It may be possible
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Moguće je
01:58
that we are not even able
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da nismo čak ni u mogućnosti
02:00
to build that much clean energy.
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da proizvedemo toliko čiste energije.
02:03
So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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Pa ako već ozbiljno govorimo o bavljenju klimatskim promenama
02:06
on an urbanizing planet,
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na planeti koja se urbanizuje,
02:08
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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rešenje moramo potražiti na drugom mestu.
02:11
The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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Rešenje, zapravo, može biti bliže nego što mislimo,
02:14
because all of those cities we're building
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jer svi oni gradovi koje gradimo
02:16
are opportunities.
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su naše prilike.
02:18
Every city determines to a very large extent
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Svaki grad u velikoj meri određuje
02:21
the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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količinu energije koju koriste njegovi stanovnici.
02:24
We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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Mi volimo da razmišljamo o potrošnji energije kao da je to stvar ponašanja --
02:27
I choose to turn this light switch on --
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ja odlučujem da upalim ovaj prekidač za svetlo --
02:29
but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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ali u stvari, ogromna količina naše potrošnje energije
02:32
are predestined
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je predodređena
02:34
by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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vrstom zajednica i gradova u kojima živimo.
02:37
I won't show you very many graphs today,
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Neću vam pokazati mnogo grafikona,
02:39
but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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ali ako mogu za trenutak da se fokusiram na ovaj,
02:42
it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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on nam stvarno govori mnogo o tome šta treba da znamo --
02:44
which is, quite simply,
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a to je, jednostavno,
02:46
that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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da ako, na primer, uzmemo u obzir prevoz,
02:48
a major category of climate emissions,
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glavnu kategoriju u emisiji štetnih gasova,
02:50
there is a direct relationship
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postoji direktna zavisnost
02:52
between how dense a city is
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između gustine u gradovima
02:54
and the amount of climate emissions
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i količine izduvnih gasova
02:56
that its residents spew out into the air.
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koju njegovi stanovnici ispuštaju u atmosferu.
02:59
And the correlation, of course,
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Korelacija, naravno,
03:01
is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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kaže da gušća mesta teže da imaju niže emisije --
03:04
which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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što i nije zapravo teško shvatiti, ako razmislite o tome.
03:07
Basically,
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U osnovi,
03:09
we substitute, in our lives,
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mi u našim životima menjamo
03:12
access to the things we want.
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pristup stvarima koje želimo.
03:14
We go out there and we hop in our cars
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Uskočimo u svoje automobile
03:16
and we drive from place to place.
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i vozimo se od jednog mesta do drugog.
03:18
And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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Time koristimo mobilnost da bi dobili pristup koji nam je potreban.
03:21
But when we live in a denser community,
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Ali kada živimo u gušćoj zajednici
03:23
suddenly what we find, of course,
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odjednom shvatamo, naravno,
03:25
is that the things we need are close by.
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da potrebne stvari su zapravo blizu.
03:27
And since the most sustainable trip
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A budući da je najodrživiji put
03:29
is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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onaj na koji iz početka ne moramo ni krenuti,
03:32
suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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odjednom naši životi istog trenutka postaju održivi.
03:35
And it is possible, of course,
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Moguće je, naravno,
03:37
to increase the density of the communities around us.
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povećati gustinu zajednica oko nas.
03:40
Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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Neka mesta ovo izvode svojim novim eko područjima,
03:42
developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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razvijajući celokupna nova održiva susedstva,
03:44
which is nice work if you can get it,
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što je lep posao ako ga možete postići,
03:46
but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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ali većinu vremena, ono o čemu govorimo je, u stvari,
03:49
reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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prekrajanje urbanog materijala koji već imamo.
03:51
So we're talking about things like infill development:
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Govorimo o stvarima kao što je unutrašnji razvoj:
03:54
really sharp little changes
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iznenadne male promene
03:56
to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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na mestima gde se nalaze zgrade, mestima gde se razvijamo.
03:58
Urban retrofitting:
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Urbana obnova:
04:00
creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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stvaranje različitih vrsta prostora i namena
04:02
out of places that are already there.
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iz mesta koja se već tamo nalaze.
04:04
Increasingly, we're realizing
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Sve više, shvatamo
04:06
that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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da nema potrebe za zgušnjavanjem celog grada.
04:09
What we need instead is an average density
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Umesto toga potrebna nam je prosečna gustina
04:12
that rises to a level
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koja se podiže do nivoa
04:14
where we don't drive as much and so on.
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na kome ne vozimo toliko i tako dalje.
04:16
And that can be done
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A to može biti postignuto
04:18
by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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podizanjem gustine na određenim mestima.
04:21
So you can think of it as tent poles
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Možete to uporediti sa šatorskim šipkama
04:24
that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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koje zapravo podižu gustinu čitavog grada.
04:27
And we find that when we do that,
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Otkrili smo da kada uradimo to,
04:29
we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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možemo, imati nekoliko mesta koja su stvarno gusto naseljena
04:31
within a wider fabric of places
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u okviru šireg tkiva mesta
04:33
that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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koja su verovatno nešto udobnija
04:35
and achieve the same results.
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i postižu iste rezultate.
04:37
Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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Možemo naći da postoje mesta koja su veoma gusta,
04:40
and still hold onto their cars,
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a njeni stanovnici ne odustaju od automobila,
04:42
but the reality is that, by and large,
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ali realnost je da, sve u svemu,
04:45
what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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ono što dobijemo kada imamo mnoštvo ljudi u pravim uslovima
04:48
is a threshold effect,
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je efekat praga,
04:50
where people simply stop driving as much,
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gde ljudi prosto prestaju toliko voziti,
04:52
and increasingly, more and more people,
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a sve više i više ljudi,
04:54
if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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ako su okruženi mestima zbog kojih se osećaju kao kod kuće,
04:56
give up their cars altogether.
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i u potpunosti odustaje od vožnje.
04:58
And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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A to je velika, velika ušteda energije,
05:01
because what comes out of our tailpipe
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jer ono što dolazi iz izduvnih cevi
05:03
is really just the beginning of the story
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je stvarno samo početak priče
05:05
with climate emissions from cars.
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o izduvnim gasovima iz automobila.
05:07
We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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Imamo proizvodnju automobila, odlaganje automobilskog otpada,
05:09
all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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sve do parkinga i auto-puteva i tako dalje.
05:12
When you can get rid of all of those
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Kada uspete da se rešite svega,
05:14
because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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zbog toga što neko ne koristi ni jedno od navedenog,
05:16
you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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tada otkrijete da zapravo možete smanjiti emisije izduvnih gasova
05:18
as much as 90 percent.
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čak za 90 procenata.
05:20
And people are embracing this.
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Ljudi ovo prihvataju.
05:22
All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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Svugde na svetu, vidimo sve više i više ljudi koji prihvataju hodanje kao način života.
05:25
People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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Ljudi govore da se radi o prelasku sa ideje o kući iz snova
05:28
to the dream neighborhood.
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na susedstvo iz snova.
05:30
And when you layer that over
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A kada tome dodate
05:32
with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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sveprisutnu komunikaciju koju počinjemo da uviđamo,
05:35
what you find is, in fact,
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ono što prvo dobijete, je zapravo,
05:37
even more access suffused into spaces.
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još veći pristup raširen u prostoru.
05:40
Some of it's transportation access.
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Pristup prevozu deo je toga.
05:42
This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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Ovo je "Mapnificent" mapa koja mi, u ovom slučaju, pokazuje
05:45
how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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koliko daleko mogu odmaći od svoje kuće za 30 minuta
05:47
using public transportation.
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koristeći javni prevoz.
05:49
Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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Drugi deo se odnosi na pešačenje. Još nije usavršeno.
05:51
This is Google Walking Maps.
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Ovo su Guglove mape pešačenja.
05:53
I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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Pitao sam kako do Ridžveja,
05:55
and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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i rekao mi je da idem preko Gernsija.
05:57
It did tell me that this route
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Ipak me je upozorio da ova ruta
05:59
maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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možda ipak nema trotoare i pešačke staze.
06:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:03
But the technologies are getting better,
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Ali tehnologije napreduju,
06:05
and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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i počinjemo da zajednički pravimo ovakvu navigaciju.
06:07
And as we just heard earlier,
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Kao što smo upravo čuli ranije,
06:09
of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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naravno, da takođe učimo kako da postavimo informacije na neme predmete.
06:12
Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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Stvari koje u sebi nemaju nikakve žice,
06:14
we're learning how to include
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učimo kako uključiti
06:16
in these systems of notation and navigation.
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u ove sisteme obeležavanja i navigacije.
06:19
Part of what we're finding with this
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Deo koji otkrivamo pomoću toga
06:21
is that what we thought
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je onaj za koji smo mislili
06:23
was the major point
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da je glavna tačka
06:25
of manufacturing and consumption,
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proizvodnje i potrošnje,
06:28
which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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kojom se dobija većina stvari,
06:30
is not, in fact,
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i koja zapravo nije
06:32
how we really live best in dense environments.
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najbolji način života u gustim okruženjima
06:34
What we're finding is that what we want
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Otkrili smo da je ono što želimo
06:36
is access to the capacities of things.
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pristup kapacitetima stvari.
06:38
My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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Moj omiljeni primer je bušilica. Ko ovde poseduje kućnu električnu bušilicu?
06:41
Okay. I do too.
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U redu, i ja takođe.
06:43
The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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Prosečna kućna bušilica se koristi negde između 6 i 20 minuta
06:45
in its entire lifetime,
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u celom svom radnom veku,
06:47
depending on who you ask.
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zavisno od toga koga pitate.
06:49
And so what we do is we buy these drills
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I tako mi kupujemo ove bušilice
06:52
that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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koje imaju potencijalni kapacitet od više hiljada sati bušenja,
06:55
use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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upotrebimo ih koji put za bušenje rupe u zidu i pustimo ih da stoje.
06:58
Our cities, I would put to you,
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Naši gradovi, rekao bih,
07:00
are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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su gomila ovih suvišnih kapaciteta.
07:03
And while we could try and figure out
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I dok mi pokušavamo da shvatimo
07:05
new ways to use those capacities --
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nove načine da koristimo te kapacitete --
07:07
such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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kao što je kuvanje ili pravljenje ledenih skulptura
07:09
or even a mafia hit --
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ili čak i mafijaško ubistvo --
07:11
what we probably will find
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ono što ćemo verovatno otkriti
07:13
is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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je, u stvari, da pretvaranje ovih proizvoda u usluge
07:15
that we have access to when we want them,
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kojima imamo pristup kada to želimo,
07:17
is a far smarter way to go.
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je znatno pametnija stvar.
07:20
And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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Zapravo se čak i prostor pretvara u uslugu.
07:23
We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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Nalazimo da ljudi mogu deliti isti prostor,
07:25
do stuff with vacant space.
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raditi razne stvari sa praznim prostorom.
07:28
Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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Građevine se pretvaraju u skup usluga.
07:30
So we have new designs
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Tako imamo nove projekte
07:32
that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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koji nam pomažu da uzmemo mehaničke stvari na koje smo trošili energiju --
07:35
like heating, cooling etc. --
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kao što je grejanje, hlađenje itd --
07:37
and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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i pretvorimo ih u stvari koje izbegavaju da nadalje troše energiju.
07:40
So we light our buildings with daylight.
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Tako bismo zgrade osvetljavali dnevnom svetlošću.
07:42
We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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Hladili bismo ih strujanjem vazduha. Grejali sunčevom svetlošću.
07:45
In fact, when we use all these things,
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Zapravo, kada koristimo sve ove stvari,
07:47
what we've found is that, in some cases,
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otkrivamo da, u nekim slučajevima,
07:49
energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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upotreba energije u nekim zgradama može opasti za čak 90 procenata.
07:51
Which brings on another threshold effect
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Što nas dovodi do još jednog efekta praga
07:53
I like to call furnace dumping,
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koji ja volim da nazovem odbacivanje peći,
07:55
which is, quite simply,
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što je, prosto, ukoliko imate
07:57
if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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zgradu koja nema potrebe za grejanjem pomoću peći,
07:59
you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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unapred imate uštedu gomile novca.
08:01
These things actually become cheaper to build
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Zapravo postaje jeftinije graditi takve zgrade
08:03
than the alternatives.
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za razliku od alternativa.
08:05
Now when we look at being able
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Sada kada razmislimo o mogućnosti
08:08
to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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da umanjimo upotrebu proizvoda, prevoza,
08:11
slash our building energy use,
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energije u zgradama,
08:13
all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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sve je to sjajno, ali i dalje ostavlja za sobom neke posledice.
08:16
And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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Ako zaista želimo da postanemo pravi održivi gradovi,
08:18
we need to think a little differently.
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moramo razmišljati nešto drugačije.
08:20
This is one way to do it.
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Ovo je jedan način.
08:22
This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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Ovo je propaganda Vankuvera o tome kakav su oni zeleni grad.
08:24
And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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I zasigurno je mnogo ljudi shvatilo ozbiljno
08:26
this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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ideju da je održiv grad prekriven zelenilom.
08:29
So we have visions like this.
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Imamo ovakve vizije.
08:31
We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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I ovakve. I ovakve.
08:34
Now all of these are fine projects,
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Sve su ovo dobri projekti,
08:36
but they really have missed an essential point,
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ali su stvarno promašili suštinu,
08:39
which is it's not about the leaves above,
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koja se ne odnosi na lišće iznad,
08:41
it's about the systems below.
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već na sistem ispod.
08:43
Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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Skupljaju li, na primer, kišnicu
08:45
so that we can reduce water use?
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da bismo mogli smanjiti upotrebu vode?
08:47
Water is energy intensive.
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Voda je energetski intenzivna.
08:50
Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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Da li, možda, podrazumevaju zelenu infranstrukturu,
08:52
so that we can take runoff
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da bismo mogli uzeti kišnicu
08:54
and water that's going out of our houses
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i vodu koja potiče iz naših domova
08:56
and clean it and filter it
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kao i da je pročiste i filtriraju
08:58
and grow urban street trees?
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za navodnjavanje urbanog zelenila?
09:00
Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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Povezuju li nas ponovno sa ekosistemima oko nas
09:03
by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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tako što nas, na primer, povezuju sa rekama
09:05
and allowing for restoration?
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i omogućuju obnavljanje?
09:07
Do they allow for pollination,
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Da li dozvoljavaju oprašivanje,
09:09
pollinator pathways
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puteve za oprašivače
09:11
that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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kako bi se pčele i leptiri mogli vratiti u naše gradove?
09:14
Do they even take the very waste matter
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Uzimaju li uopšte sam otpad
09:16
that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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od naše hrane, materijala i tako dalje,
09:19
and turn it back into soil
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i da li ih vraćaju zemlji
09:21
and sequester carbon --
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odvajajući ugljenik --
09:23
take carbon out of the air
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uzimajući ugljenik iz vazduha
09:25
in the process of using our cities?
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u procesu iskorišćavanja naših gradova?
09:27
I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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Priznao bih vam da su sve te stvari ne samo moguće,
09:30
they're being done right now,
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nego se već sada rade,
09:32
and that it's a darn good thing.
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što je stvarno dobra stvar.
09:34
Because right now, our economy by and large
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Zbog toga što u ovom trenutku, naša ekonomija
09:37
operates as Paul Hawken said,
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funkcioniše kako je Pol Hoken rekao,
09:39
"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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"kradući budućnost, prodajući je u sadašnjosti
09:41
and calling it GDP."
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i nazivajući je BDP-om".
09:43
And if we have another eight billion
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I ako dodatnih osam milijardi
09:45
or seven billion,
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ili sedam milijardi,
09:47
or six billion, even, people,
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ili čak šest milijardi ljudi,
09:49
living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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živi na planeti gde njihovi gradovi takođe kradu budućnost,
09:52
we're going to run out of future really fast.
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vrlo brzo će nam ponestati te budućnosti.
09:54
But if we think differently,
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Ali ako budemo drugačije razmišljali,
09:56
I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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mislim da možemo imati gradove
09:58
that are not only zero emissions,
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koji ne samo da imaju nultu emisiju,
10:00
but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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već imaju i neograničene mogućnosti.
10:02
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala
10:04
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
About this website

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