Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities

翻译人员: Jiwei Qu 校对人员: Jing Gao

Climate change is already a heavy topic,

气候变化已经是一个沉重的话题

and it's getting heavier

并且正变得越来越沉重

because we're understanding

因为我们知道

that we need to do more than we are.

我们需要付出的比现在更多

We're understanding, in fact,

我们清楚，事实上

that those of us who live in the developed world

我们之中那些生活在发达世界的人们

need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.

需要切实的去推进减排的工作

That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.

那已经，说的委婉一点，不能仅仅是纸上谈兵了

And it tends to feel a little overwhelming

当我们看看真实情况

when we look at what is there in reality today

以及面临的巨大问题

and the magnitude of the problem that we face.

会感到有点势不可挡的感觉

And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,

当棘手的问题摆在我们面前的时候

we tend to seek simple answers.

我们都会试图寻找简单的解决方法

And I think this is what we've done with climate change.

我认为这就是我们现在面对气候变化的所作所为

We look at where the emissions are coming from --

我们看到排放气体的来源--

they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,

它们来自我们的排气管和烟囱等等

and we say, okay, well the problem is

然后我们说，恩，问题就是

that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,

它们来自化石燃料的燃烧

so therefore, the answer must be

因此，解决方法一定就是

to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.

把那些化石燃料换成清洁能源

And while, of course, we do need clean energy,

虽然说，毫无疑问，我们确实需要清洁能源

I would put to you that it's possible

我会向你提出如果我们

that by looking at climate change

把气候变化问题

as a clean energy generation problem,

看做是清洁能源问题

we're in fact setting ourselves up

那么我们实际上让自己偏离了解决问题

not to solve it.

的正确方向

And the reason why

原因在于

is that we live on a planet

我们生活的星球

that is rapidly urbanizing.

正在快速的城市化

That shouldn't be news to any of us.

这对我们来说已经不是什么新闻了

However, it's hard sometimes

但是，有时候我们已经很难

to remember the extent of that urbanization.

记住城市化的程度了

By mid-century,

到本世纪中叶

we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people

我们会有大约80亿--也许更多--的人口

living in cities or within a day's travel of one.

居住在城市

We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.

我们将不可避免的成为城市化物种

In order to provide

为了提供

the kind of energy that it would take

足够的能源去满足80亿人

for eight billion people living in cities

生活在城市

that are even somewhat like the cities

甚至是像城市的地方

that those of us in the global North live in today,

像我们中现在生活在北方世界的人居住的地方

we would have to generate

我们将不得不生产出

an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.

惊人数量的能源

It may be possible

也许我们

that we are not even able

根本提供不了

to build that much clean energy.

那么多的清洁能源

So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change

因此如果我们严肃的来商讨如何在这个不断城市化的星球上

on an urbanizing planet,

阻止气候变化

we need to look somewhere else for the solution.

我们需要找到其他的解决方法

The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,

这个解决方法，实际上可能就近在眼前

because all of those cities we're building

因为我们建造的所有城市

are opportunities.

都是机会

Every city determines to a very large extent

在很大程度上，每座城市自身就决定了

the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.

其居民使用的能源量

We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --

我们趋向于把能源的使用想成一种行为方式--

I choose to turn this light switch on --

我选择把这盏灯关掉--

but really, enormous amounts of our energy use

但是实际上，我们居住的社区和城市的类型

are predestined

已经决定了

by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.

我们会使用大量的能源

I won't show you very many graphs today,

我今天不会向大家展示太多的图表

but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,

但是如果我们仔细看一下这张表的话

it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --

它能展示出许多我们需要了解的东西--

which is, quite simply,

那就是，一个非常简单的事实

that if you look, for example, at transportation,

如果你看一下，举个例子，交通运输

a major category of climate emissions,

一个主要的气候排放来源

there is a direct relationship

在城市密度

between how dense a city is

和城市居民

and the amount of climate emissions

排放到空气中的废气量之间

that its residents spew out into the air.

是有直接联系的

And the correlation, of course,

它们之间的相互关系，当然了

is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --

密度越大的地方趋向于低排放--

which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.

如果你仔细想想，其实它并不是很难理解

Basically,

基本上

we substitute, in our lives,

生活中我们会选择不同的方法

access to the things we want.

完成我们想做的事情

We go out there and we hop in our cars

我们外出时会一跃而进我们的爱车

and we drive from place to place.

然后驾车去往目的地

And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.

通常我们选用机动性的方式去达成我们的意愿

But when we live in a denser community,

但是当我们生活在高密度的社区时

suddenly what we find, of course,

我们会猛然发现，当然

is that the things we need are close by.

我们需要的东西都在我们的周围

And since the most sustainable trip

因为最绿色的出行方式

is the one that you never had to make in the first place,

是你根本就不需要出行

suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.

不经意间我们的生活方式立刻变得更加绿色了

And it is possible, of course,

增加社区的密度，当然

to increase the density of the communities around us.

是完全可能的

Some places are doing this with new eco districts,

一些地方正在做着类似新生态区的事情

developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,

正在发展一套全新的可持续发展的生活区

which is nice work if you can get it,

如果你了解这项工作，你会觉得它很棒

but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,

但是大多数时候，我们讨论的实际上是

reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.

重新编制我们现有的城市网络

So we're talking about things like infill development:

因此我们更多提到的是填充式开发：

really sharp little changes

即对我们现有的建筑

to where we have buildings, where we're developing.

和正在发展中事物不做明显的改变

Urban retrofitting:

城市改造：

creating different sorts of spaces and uses

即在我们现在已经使用的空间基础上

out of places that are already there.

创造出不同种的新空间和用途

Increasingly, we're realizing

渐渐的，我们就会意识到

that we don't even need to densify an entire city.

我们甚至不需要去增加整个城市的密度

What we need instead is an average density

取而代之的是促使城市平均密度

that rises to a level

达到一个

where we don't drive as much and so on.

我们之前没有达到的程度

And that can be done

我们可以通过提高某些特定点的密度

by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.

来达到这个目标

So you can think of it as tent poles

你可以把它想成帐篷的几个支撑杆

that actually raise the density of the entire city.

它可以切实的提高整个城市的密度

And we find that when we do that,

我们发现 当我们去做的时候

we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense

实际上，在一个可能安逸些的广阔地区

within a wider fabric of places

有几个真正

that are perhaps a little more comfortable

高密度的地方

and achieve the same results.

就可以达到同样的结果

Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense

现在我们可能会发现有些地方密度确实很大

and still hold onto their cars,

但仍然保有着他们的汽车

but the reality is that, by and large,

可是实际情况是，总的来说

what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions

当我们在适当的条件下把人们聚集在一起的时候，我们看到的是

is a threshold effect,

一个门槛效应

where people simply stop driving as much,

当人们聚集在一个

and increasingly, more and more people,

他们认为有家的感觉的地方的时候

if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,

他们会自然的停止开车，并且渐渐地，越来越多的人

give up their cars altogether.

都会放弃他们的车

And this is a huge, huge energy savings,

这将节省一笔非常非常可观的能源消耗

because what comes out of our tailpipe

因为从排气管中排放的废气

is really just the beginning of the story

仅仅是汽车业造成气候变化

with climate emissions from cars.

的开端

We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,

其中还有汽车的制造，报废

all of the parking and freeways and so on.

所有的停车场以及高速路等环节

When you can get rid of all of those

当你可以解决掉所有上述环节

because somebody doesn't use any of them really,

因为有些人根本用不到上述任何一个设施

you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions

就可以切实的减少90%的

as much as 90 percent.

交通废气的排放

And people are embracing this.

人们在逐渐认同这个观点

All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.

纵观全球，我们看到越来越多的人们接受了这种步行生活方式

People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home

人们认为 大家的观念正在从拥有一个梦想的小家转变成

to the dream neighborhood.

拥有一个梦想的社区

And when you layer that over

当你把那些

with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,

我们正在普遍使用的通讯方式引入的时候

what you find is, in fact,

你会发现，事实上

even more access suffused into spaces.

我们的生活会有更多的选择

Some of it's transportation access.

其中就有一些交通选择

This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,

这是Mapnificent给出的一张地图，它显示了

how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes

从我家出发，在30分钟内乘坐公共交通

using public transportation.

可以走多远

Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.

有一些是靠走路的，它还并不是各方面都很完美

This is Google Walking Maps.

这是个谷歌的步行地图

I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,

我问它如何去大Ridgeway区

and it told me to go via Guernsey.

它告诉我通过Guernsey

It did tell me that this route

它并没有显示这条线路

maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.

也许错过了人行路或者步行路

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the technologies are getting better,

但是科技在不断进步

and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.

这些导航工具也开始不断出现在我们周围

And as we just heard earlier,

就像我们刚刚听到的

of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.

当然，我们同样正在学习如何把信息放到那些不说话的工具中

Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,

放到那些无线的工具中

we're learning how to include

我们正在学习如何把信息放入

in these systems of notation and navigation.

这些标记和导航系统之中

Part of what we're finding with this

我们从中发现的部分结论是

is that what we thought

我们之前以为

was the major point

生产和消耗

of manufacturing and consumption,

的关键点

which is to get a bunch of stuff,

即生产出大量的产品

is not, in fact,

事实上并不能让

how we really live best in dense environments.

我们在高密度环境下生活得最好

What we're finding is that what we want

我们寻找的正是我们所希望的

is access to the capacities of things.

那就是让事物发挥出最大的承载力

My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?

我最喜欢的例子是钻头的例子，在坐的谁家有钻头？家用型的？

Okay. I do too.

我也有

The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes

家用型钻头在它的整个使用寿命中平均

in its entire lifetime,

被使用6-20分钟

depending on who you ask.

这取决于你问的是谁

And so what we do is we buy these drills

因此我们做的就是买下这些

that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,

实际上有着数千小时使用寿命的钻头

use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.

然后用它们在墙上钻一两次洞，就把它们闲置在一边

Our cities, I would put to you,

我们的城市，我会向你展示

are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.

囤积了大量这样的盈余的能力

And while we could try and figure out

于是我们尝试发现

new ways to use those capacities --

运用这些闲置能力的新方法--

such as cooking or making ice sculptures

比如用它烹饪或者做冰雕

or even a mafia hit --

甚至可以当凶器--

what we probably will find

我们很可能会发现

is that, in fact, turning those products into services

实际上把这些产品转化为服务

that we have access to when we want them,

我们需要的时候就可以使用的服务

is a far smarter way to go.

这是非常明智的方法

And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.

事实上，甚至空间本身也正在变成一种服务

We're finding that people can share the same spaces,

我们发现人们可以共享一样的空间

do stuff with vacant space.

用闲置的空间做些事情

Buildings are becoming bundles of services.

建筑物就成了把这些服务聚集起来的地方

So we have new designs

因此我们有了新设计

that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --

帮助我们把原来需要耗能的机械性设备--

like heating, cooling etc. --

例如暖气和制冷装置等等--

and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.

转变成无需耗能的装置

So we light our buildings with daylight.

我们让建筑物采用自然采光

We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.

采用自然风降温 采用日光升温

In fact, when we use all these things,

实际上 当我们采用这些设计时

what we've found is that, in some cases,

我们发现 在某些情况下

energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.

建筑物的节能程度可以高达90%

Which brings on another threshold effect

也带来了另一种门槛效应

I like to call furnace dumping,

我称其为“抛弃锅炉”

which is, quite simply,

非常简单

if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,

如果一个建筑本身不需要靠锅炉房供暖

you save a whole bunch of money up front.

你就节省了一大笔资金

These things actually become cheaper to build

建筑成本也因此比之前

than the alternatives.

有所降低

Now when we look at being able

现在 当我们去

to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,

削减产品消耗，削减运输消耗

slash our building energy use,

削减建筑物本身能源消耗

all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.

所有这些都很棒，但是还是有些事情需要改进

And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,

如果我们想真正的成为可持续发展型城市

we need to think a little differently.

我们需要考虑一些不同的东西

This is one way to do it.

这里有一个方法

This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.

这是一个温哥华的宣传活动，关于他们的城市是多么环保

And certainly lots of people have taken to heart

人们的观念里已经认为一个可持续发展的

this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.

城市一定是被绿色所覆盖的

So we have visions like this.

因此我们就有了这样的想象

We have visions like this. We have visions like this.

这样的想象，还有这样的

Now all of these are fine projects,

这些都是很好的方案

but they really have missed an essential point,

但是他们还缺少了很重要的一点

which is it's not about the leaves above,

缺少的不是外表的建设

it's about the systems below.

而且是背后的系统建设

Do they, for instance, capture rainwater

比如，他们有没有对雨水进行利用

so that we can reduce water use?

从而减少水资源消耗

Water is energy intensive.

水是能源集中型的

Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,

他们的设想是否包括了绿色的基础设施

so that we can take runoff

以便利于雨水的下渗和利用

and water that's going out of our houses

还可以利用生活用水

and clean it and filter it

清洁过滤

and grow urban street trees?

浇灌城市植被

Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us

这些方案是否可以回归到我们周围的生态系统中

by, for example, connecting us to rivers

比如，我们周围的河流

and allowing for restoration?

恢复它们的原貌

Do they allow for pollination,

他们是考虑到花朵的授粉

pollinator pathways

提供传粉的通道

that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?

从而让蜜蜂和蝴蝶之类的传粉昆虫重新回到我们的城市？

Do they even take the very waste matter

甚至他们是否运用了废弃物

that we have from food and fiber and so forth,

包括食物、纤维等等物质

and turn it back into soil

让它们回归土壤

and sequester carbon --

并进行固碳

take carbon out of the air

即在我们使用城市的过程中

in the process of using our cities?

把碳从空气中剥离

I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,

我想告诉大家所有这些方法不仅仅是可能

they're being done right now,

他们正在被运用着

and that it's a darn good thing.

这是非常好的事情

Because right now, our economy by and large

因为现在，我们的经济运作方式总的来说

operates as Paul Hawken said,

就像保罗霍肯说的那样

"by stealing the future, selling it in the present

"盗取将来的资源,在现在进行交易

and calling it GDP."

然后称其为GDP”

And if we have another eight billion

如果再增加八十亿

or seven billion,

或是七十亿

or six billion, even, people,

或者只是六十亿的人口

living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,

如果人们仍然以透支未来的方式生活在这个星球上

we're going to run out of future really fast.

资源将会很快被我们所耗尽

But if we think differently,

但是如果我们换个方式思考

I think that, in fact, we can have cities

我想我们可以拥有的不仅仅是

that are not only zero emissions,

零排放的城市

but have unlimited possibilities as well.

我们还拥有着无限的可能

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）