Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities

61,681 views ・ 2011-08-08

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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and it's getting heavier
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because we're understanding
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that we need to do more than we are.
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We're understanding, in fact,
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that those of us who live in the developed world
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need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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when we look at what is there in reality today
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and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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we tend to seek simple answers.
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And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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and we say, okay, well the problem is
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that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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so therefore, the answer must be
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to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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I would put to you that it's possible
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that by looking at climate change
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as a clean energy generation problem,
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we're in fact setting ourselves up
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not to solve it.
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And the reason why
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is that we live on a planet
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that is rapidly urbanizing.
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That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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However, it's hard sometimes
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to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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By mid-century,
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we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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In order to provide
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the kind of energy that it would take
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for eight billion people living in cities
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that are even somewhat like the cities
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that those of us in the global North live in today,
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we would have to generate
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an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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It may be possible
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that we are not even able
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to build that much clean energy.
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So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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on an urbanizing planet,
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we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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because all of those cities we're building
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are opportunities.
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Every city determines to a very large extent
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the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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I choose to turn this light switch on --
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but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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are predestined
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by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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I won't show you very many graphs today,
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but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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which is, quite simply,
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that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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a major category of climate emissions,
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there is a direct relationship
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between how dense a city is
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and the amount of climate emissions
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that its residents spew out into the air.
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And the correlation, of course,
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is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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Basically,
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we substitute, in our lives,
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access to the things we want.
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We go out there and we hop in our cars
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and we drive from place to place.
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And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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But when we live in a denser community,
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suddenly what we find, of course,
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is that the things we need are close by.
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And since the most sustainable trip
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is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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And it is possible, of course,
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to increase the density of the communities around us.
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Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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which is nice work if you can get it,
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but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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So we're talking about things like infill development:
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really sharp little changes
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to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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Urban retrofitting:
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creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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out of places that are already there.
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Increasingly, we're realizing
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that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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What we need instead is an average density
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that rises to a level
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where we don't drive as much and so on.
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And that can be done
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by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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So you can think of it as tent poles
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that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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And we find that when we do that,
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we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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within a wider fabric of places
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that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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and achieve the same results.
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Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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and still hold onto their cars,
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but the reality is that, by and large,
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what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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is a threshold effect,
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where people simply stop driving as much,
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and increasingly, more and more people,
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if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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give up their cars altogether.
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And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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because what comes out of our tailpipe
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is really just the beginning of the story
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with climate emissions from cars.
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We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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When you can get rid of all of those
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because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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as much as 90 percent.
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And people are embracing this.
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All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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to the dream neighborhood.
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And when you layer that over
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with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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what you find is, in fact,
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even more access suffused into spaces.
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Some of it's transportation access.
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This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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using public transportation.
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Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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This is Google Walking Maps.
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I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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It did tell me that this route
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maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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(Laughter)
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But the technologies are getting better,
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and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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And as we just heard earlier,
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of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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we're learning how to include
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in these systems of notation and navigation.
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Part of what we're finding with this
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is that what we thought
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was the major point
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of manufacturing and consumption,
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which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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is not, in fact,
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how we really live best in dense environments.
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What we're finding is that what we want
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is access to the capacities of things.
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My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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Okay. I do too.
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The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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in its entire lifetime,
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depending on who you ask.
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And so what we do is we buy these drills
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that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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Our cities, I would put to you,
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are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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And while we could try and figure out
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new ways to use those capacities --
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such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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or even a mafia hit --
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what we probably will find
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is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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that we have access to when we want them,
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is a far smarter way to go.
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And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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do stuff with vacant space.
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Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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So we have new designs
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that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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like heating, cooling etc. --
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and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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So we light our buildings with daylight.
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We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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In fact, when we use all these things,
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what we've found is that, in some cases,
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energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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Which brings on another threshold effect
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I like to call furnace dumping,
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which is, quite simply,
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if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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These things actually become cheaper to build
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than the alternatives.
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Now when we look at being able
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to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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slash our building energy use,
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all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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we need to think a little differently.
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This is one way to do it.
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This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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So we have visions like this.
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We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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Now all of these are fine projects,
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but they really have missed an essential point,
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which is it's not about the leaves above,
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it's about the systems below.
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Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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so that we can reduce water use?
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Water is energy intensive.
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Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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so that we can take runoff
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and water that's going out of our houses
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and clean it and filter it
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and grow urban street trees?
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Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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and allowing for restoration?
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Do they allow for pollination,
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pollinator pathways
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that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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Do they even take the very waste matter
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that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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and turn it back into soil
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and sequester carbon --
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take carbon out of the air
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in the process of using our cities?
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I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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they're being done right now,
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and that it's a darn good thing.
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Because right now, our economy by and large
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operates as Paul Hawken said,
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"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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and calling it GDP."
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And if we have another eight billion
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or seven billion,
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or six billion, even, people,
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living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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we're going to run out of future really fast.
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But if we think differently,
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I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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that are not only zero emissions,
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but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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