Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities

61,681 views ・ 2011-08-08

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Vedrana Vučković Jakšić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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Klimatske su promjene ozbiljna tema
00:17
and it's getting heavier
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koja postaje sve ozbiljnija
00:19
because we're understanding
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jer počinjemo shvaćati
00:21
that we need to do more than we are.
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da moramo učiniti više nego što činimo.
00:23
We're understanding, in fact,
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Zapravo, počinjemo shvaćati
00:25
that those of us who live in the developed world
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da bi oni od nas koji žive u razvijenom svijetu
00:27
need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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trebali nastojati otkloniti emisije štetnih plinova.
00:30
That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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O tome se, blago rečeno, trenutno ne raspravlja.
00:33
And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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I pomalo nas zaprepasti
00:35
when we look at what is there in reality today
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kada otvorimo oči pred današnjom situacijom
00:38
and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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i opsegom problema s kojima smo suočeni.
00:41
And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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Kada se tako golemi problemi nađu pred nama,
00:44
we tend to seek simple answers.
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obično tražimo jednostavna rješenja.
00:47
And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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Mislim da to radimo i s klimatskim promjenama.
00:50
We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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Pitamo se odakle emisije plinova dolaze --
00:52
they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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dolaze iz ispušnih cijevi, dimnjaka i tako dalje,
00:55
and we say, okay, well the problem is
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i kažemo, u redu, problem je u tome
00:57
that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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što dolaze iz fosilnih goriva koje koristimo,
00:59
so therefore, the answer must be
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dakle, rješenje mora biti
01:02
to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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zamjena fosilnih goriva čistim izvorima energije.
01:05
And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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I dok nam, naravno, treba čista energija,
01:08
I would put to you that it's possible
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naglasio bih da je moguće
01:10
that by looking at climate change
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da se bavljenjem klimatskim promjenama
01:12
as a clean energy generation problem,
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kao problemom stvaranja čiste energije,
01:14
we're in fact setting ourselves up
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zapravo udaljavamo
01:16
not to solve it.
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od rješenja.
01:18
And the reason why
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Razlog tome je
01:20
is that we live on a planet
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to što živimo na planetu
01:22
that is rapidly urbanizing.
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koji se ubrzano urbanizira.
01:24
That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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To nam ne bi trebala biti novost.
01:26
However, it's hard sometimes
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Ipak, ponekad je teško
01:28
to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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imati u vidu razmjere urbanizacije.
01:31
By mid-century,
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Do polovice ovog stoljeća,
01:33
we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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oko osam milijardi ljudi, možda i više,
01:36
living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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živjet će u gradovima ili na dan udaljenosti.
01:39
We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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Bit ćemo iznimno urbana vrsta.
01:42
In order to provide
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Da bismo osigurali
01:44
the kind of energy that it would take
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vrstu energije koja će biti potrebna
01:46
for eight billion people living in cities
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za osam milijardi ljudi u gradovima
01:48
that are even somewhat like the cities
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koji bar donekle nalikuju gradovima
01:50
that those of us in the global North live in today,
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u kakvima danas živimo mi na sjevernoj hemisferi,
01:52
we would have to generate
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morali bismo proizvesti
01:54
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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potpuno zapanjujuću količinu energije.
01:56
It may be possible
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Moguće je
01:58
that we are not even able
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da nismo čak ni u mogućnosti
02:00
to build that much clean energy.
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proizvesti toliko čiste energije.
02:03
So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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Ako ozbiljno govorimo o suočavanju s klimatskim promjenama
02:06
on an urbanizing planet,
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na planetu koji se urbanizira,
02:08
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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rješenje moramo potražiti negdje drugdje.
02:11
The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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To nam je rješenje možda bliže nego što mislimo.
02:14
because all of those cities we're building
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Jer svi gradovi koje gradimo
02:16
are opportunities.
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prilike su.
02:18
Every city determines to a very large extent
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Svaki grad u velikoj mjeri određuje
02:21
the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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količinu energije koju troše njegovi stanovnici.
02:24
We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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Mislimo da korištenje energije ovisi o ponašanju --
02:27
I choose to turn this light switch on --
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ja odlučujem hoću li uključiti ovaj prekidač --
02:29
but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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no zapravo, goleme količine naše potrošnje energije
02:32
are predestined
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predodređeno je
02:34
by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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vrstom zajednice i grada u kojemu živimo.
02:37
I won't show you very many graphs today,
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Danas vam neću pokazati mnogo grafikona,
02:39
but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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ali ako na trenutak obratite pažnju na ovaj,
02:42
it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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reći će nam mnoge stvari koje trebamo znati --
02:44
which is, quite simply,
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a to je, pojednostavljeno,
02:46
that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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da ako, na primjer, uzmemo u obzir prijevoz,
02:48
a major category of climate emissions,
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bitnu stavku u emisiji štetnih plinova,
02:50
there is a direct relationship
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postoji izravna veza
02:52
between how dense a city is
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između napučenosti grada
02:54
and the amount of climate emissions
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i količine ispušnih plinova
02:56
that its residents spew out into the air.
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koje njegovi stanovnici ispuštaju u zrak.
02:59
And the correlation, of course,
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A povezanost je naravno ta
03:01
is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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da napučenija naselja imaju nižu razinu emisije --
03:04
which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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što uopće nije teško razumjeti, ako malo razmislite.
03:07
Basically,
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Zapravo,
03:09
we substitute, in our lives,
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u svojim životima zamjenjujemo
03:12
access to the things we want.
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pristup stvarima koje želimo.
03:14
We go out there and we hop in our cars
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Izađemo van, uskočimo u automobil
03:16
and we drive from place to place.
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i vozimo se od jednog mjesta do drugog.
03:18
And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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Zapravo koristimo mobilnost da bismo pristupili onome što trebamo.
03:21
But when we live in a denser community,
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Ali kada živimo u napučenijem prostoru,
03:23
suddenly what we find, of course,
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najednom shvaćamo, naravno,
03:25
is that the things we need are close by.
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da su stvari koje trebamo blizu.
03:27
And since the most sustainable trip
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A budući da je najodrživiji put
03:29
is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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onaj na koji ne moramo ni krenuti,
03:32
suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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odjednom naši životi u trenu postaju održiviji.
03:35
And it is possible, of course,
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Naravno da je moguće
03:37
to increase the density of the communities around us.
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povećati gustoću zajednica oko nas.
03:40
Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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Ponegdje se to čini izgradnjom novih eko područja,
03:42
developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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razvojem cijelih novih održivih četvrti,
03:44
which is nice work if you can get it,
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što je lijepo ako to možete postići.
03:46
but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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No većinu vremena, ono o čemu govorimo je zapravo
03:49
reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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prekrajanje urbanog materijala koji već imamo.
03:51
So we're talking about things like infill development:
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Govorimo o stvarima poput unutarnjeg razvoja:
03:54
really sharp little changes
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iznenadne male promjene
03:56
to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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na mjestima gdje se građevine nalaze, mjestima razvoja.
03:58
Urban retrofitting:
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Urbana obnova:
04:00
creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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stvaranje raznih vrsta prostora i namjena
04:02
out of places that are already there.
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na mjestima koja već postoje.
04:04
Increasingly, we're realizing
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Sve više shvaćamo
04:06
that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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da nije potrebno povećati gustoću cijeloga grada.
04:09
What we need instead is an average density
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Potrebno je postići prosječnu gustoću
04:12
that rises to a level
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koja raste do razine
04:14
where we don't drive as much and so on.
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na kojoj ne vozimo toliko i tako dalje.
04:16
And that can be done
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A to je moguće postići
04:18
by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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znatnim povećanjem gustoće izgrađenosti na određenim mjestima.
04:21
So you can think of it as tent poles
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Možete to usporediti sa šatorskim šipkama
04:24
that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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koje zapravo povećavaju gustoću cijelog grada.
04:27
And we find that when we do that,
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Shvaćamo da kada to činimo
04:29
we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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možemo imati nekoliko mjesta iznimne gustoće
04:31
within a wider fabric of places
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unutar šireg materijala naselja
04:33
that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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koja su možda malo ugodnija
04:35
and achieve the same results.
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i postižu jednake rezultate.
04:37
Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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Možemo pronaći mjesta koja su veoma, veoma gusta
04:40
and still hold onto their cars,
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no ne odustaju od automobila.
04:42
but the reality is that, by and large,
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Istina je da, sve u svemu,
04:45
what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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ono što dobijemo kada imamo mnoštvo ljudi u pravim uvjetima
04:48
is a threshold effect,
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je efekt praga,
04:50
where people simply stop driving as much,
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pri čemu ljudi prestaju toliko voziti,
04:52
and increasingly, more and more people,
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a sve više ljudi,
04:54
if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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ako su okruženi mjestima zbog kojih se osjećaju kao kod kuće,
04:56
give up their cars altogether.
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u potpunosti odustaju od vožnje.
04:58
And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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Dolazi do goleme uštede energije.
05:01
because what comes out of our tailpipe
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Jer ono što izlazi iz ispušnih cijevi
05:03
is really just the beginning of the story
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samo je početak priče
05:05
with climate emissions from cars.
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o ispušnim plinovima iz automobila.
05:07
We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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Imamo proizvodnju automobila, odlaganje automobila,
05:09
all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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parkirna mjesta, autoceste i tako dalje.
05:12
When you can get rid of all of those
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Kada se uspijete riješiti svega toga
05:14
because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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jer ih netko uopće ne koristi,
05:16
you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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shvatit ćete da zapravo možete smanjiti emisije ispušnih plinova
05:18
as much as 90 percent.
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čak za 90 posto.
05:20
And people are embracing this.
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I ljudi to prihvaćaju.
05:22
All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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Diljem svijeta svjedočimo tome da sve više ljudi prihvaća hodalački način života.
05:25
People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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Ljudi govore da se radi o prelasku s ideje o domu iz snova
05:28
to the dream neighborhood.
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na susjedstvo iz snova.
05:30
And when you layer that over
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A kada tome dodate
05:32
with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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sveprisutnu komunikaciju koja se pojavljuje,
05:35
what you find is, in fact,
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ono što dobijete je zapravo
05:37
even more access suffused into spaces.
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još više pristupa raširenog u prostoru.
05:40
Some of it's transportation access.
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Pristup prijevozu dio je toga.
05:42
This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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Ovo je karta Mapnificent koja mi u ovom slučaju pokazuje
05:45
how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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koliko daleko mogu stići od svoje kuće za 30 minuta
05:47
using public transportation.
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pomoću javnog prijevoza.
05:49
Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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Drugi dio je pješačenje. Još nije usavršen.
05:51
This is Google Walking Maps.
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Ovo su Googleove Walking Maps.
05:53
I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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Pitao sam kako proći stazu Greater Ridgeway
05:55
and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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i rekao mi je da idem preko Guernseya.
05:57
It did tell me that this route
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Ipak me upozorio da taj put
05:59
maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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možda nema nogostupe i pješačke staze.
06:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:03
But the technologies are getting better,
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No tehnologije napreduju
06:05
and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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i na neki način počinjemo iskorištavati takvu navigaciju.
06:07
And as we just heard earlier,
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Kao što smo ranije čuli
06:09
of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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također učimo kako staviti informacije na nijeme predmete.
06:12
Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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Predmete koje nemaju nikakve žice u sebi,
06:14
we're learning how to include
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učimo kako u njih uključiti
06:16
in these systems of notation and navigation.
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notacijske i navigacijske sustave.
06:19
Part of what we're finding with this
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Ono što otkrivamo pomoću toga
06:21
is that what we thought
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je da ono što smo mislili
06:23
was the major point
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da je najvažnije
06:25
of manufacturing and consumption,
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pri proizvodnji i potrošnji,
06:28
which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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odnosno imati hrpu stvari
06:30
is not, in fact,
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zapravo nije
06:32
how we really live best in dense environments.
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najbolji način života u napučenim prostorima.
06:34
What we're finding is that what we want
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Otkrili smo da je ono što želimo
06:36
is access to the capacities of things.
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pristup velikim količinama stvari.
06:38
My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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Moj omiljeni primjer je bušilica. Tko ovdje posjeduje kućnu električnu bušilicu?
06:41
Okay. I do too.
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OK. Ja također.
06:43
The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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Prosječna bušilica koristi se između šest i 20 minuta
06:45
in its entire lifetime,
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u čitavom radnom vijeku
06:47
depending on who you ask.
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ovisno o tome koga pitate.
06:49
And so what we do is we buy these drills
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I tako mi kupujemo te bušilice
06:52
that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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čiji potencijalni kapacitet iznosi na tisuće sati bušenja,
06:55
use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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upotrijebimo ih koji put za bušenje rupe u zidu i pustimo ih da stoje.
06:58
Our cities, I would put to you,
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Naši gradovi, rekao bih,
07:00
are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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rezerve su tih suvišnih kapaciteta.
07:03
And while we could try and figure out
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Mogli bismo se potruditi i pronaći
07:05
new ways to use those capacities --
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nove načine korištenja tih kapaciteta --
07:07
such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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kao što je kuhanje ili izrada skulptura od leda
07:09
or even a mafia hit --
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čak i mafijaški napad --
07:11
what we probably will find
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ono što ćemo vjerojatno otkriti
07:13
is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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je da je pretvaranje tih proizvoda u usluge
07:15
that we have access to when we want them,
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kojima imamo pristup kada to želimo
07:17
is a far smarter way to go.
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znatno pametnija mogućnost.
07:20
And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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Zapravo se sam prostor pretvara u uslugu.
07:23
We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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Otkrivamo da ljudi mogu dijeliti isti prostor,
07:25
do stuff with vacant space.
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raditi svašta s praznim prostorom.
07:28
Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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Zgrade se pretvaraju u skupine usluga.
07:30
So we have new designs
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Imamo nove projekte
07:32
that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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pomoću kojih možemo mehaničke stvari na koje smo trošili energiju --
07:35
like heating, cooling etc. --
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poput grijanja, hlađenja itd. --
07:37
and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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pretvoriti u stvari na koje ne želimo trošiti energiju.
07:40
So we light our buildings with daylight.
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Tako osvjetljavamo zgrade prirodnim svjetlom.
07:42
We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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Hladimo ih strujanjem zraka. Grijemo ih sunčevom energijom.
07:45
In fact, when we use all these things,
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Zapravo kada koristimo te stvari,
07:47
what we've found is that, in some cases,
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otkrili smo da se u nekim slučajevima
07:49
energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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uporaba energije u zgradi može smanjiti za čak 90 posto.
07:51
Which brings on another threshold effect
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To nas dovodi do još jednog efekta praga
07:53
I like to call furnace dumping,
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koji zovem odbacivanje peći.
07:55
which is, quite simply,
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Što je, pojednostavljeno,
07:57
if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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ako postoji zgrada koju nije potrebno grijati pomoću peći,
07:59
you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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unaprijed ćete uštediti veliku količinu novca.
08:01
These things actually become cheaper to build
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Zapravo postaje jeftinije graditi takve zgrade
08:03
than the alternatives.
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nego alternative.
08:05
Now when we look at being able
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Kada razmislimo o mogućnosti
08:08
to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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smanjenja uporabe proizvoda, rezanja korištenja prijevoza,
08:11
slash our building energy use,
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rezanja potrošnje energije u domu,
08:13
all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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sve je to divno, no ipak ima svoje posljedice.
08:16
And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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Ako zaista želimo postati pravi održivi gradovi
08:18
we need to think a little differently.
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moramo razmišljati malo drukčije.
08:20
This is one way to do it.
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Ovo je jedan od načina.
08:22
This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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Ovo je Vancouverova propaganda o tome koliko su zelen grad.
08:24
And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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I zasigurno je mnogo ljudi ozbiljno shvatilo
08:26
this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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ideju da održivi grad treba biti prekriven zelenilom.
08:29
So we have visions like this.
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Ovo su vizije kakve imamo.
08:31
We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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Ovo su vizije kakve imamo. Ovo su vizije kakve imamo.
08:34
Now all of these are fine projects,
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Sve su to dobri projekti,
08:36
but they really have missed an essential point,
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no zapravo im je promakla temeljna činjenica
08:39
which is it's not about the leaves above,
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da se ne radi o lišću iznad,
08:41
it's about the systems below.
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nego o sustavima ispod.
08:43
Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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Skupljaju li, na primjer, kišnicu
08:45
so that we can reduce water use?
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kako bismo smanjili uporabu vode?
08:47
Water is energy intensive.
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Voda je energetski snažna.
08:50
Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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Uključuju li možda zelenu infrastrukturu
08:52
so that we can take runoff
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da bismo mogli uzeti kišnicu
08:54
and water that's going out of our houses
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i vodu koju ispuštamo iz svojih domova,
08:56
and clean it and filter it
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očistiti je i filtrirati
08:58
and grow urban street trees?
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za navodnjavanje urbanog zelenila?
09:00
Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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Povezuju li nas ponovno s ekosustavima oko nas
09:03
by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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tako da nas povezuju s rijekama
09:05
and allowing for restoration?
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i omogućuju obnavljanje?
09:07
Do they allow for pollination,
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Omogućuju li oprašivanje,
09:09
pollinator pathways
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putove za oprašivače
09:11
that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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kako bi se pčele i leptiri mogli vratiti u naše gradove?
09:14
Do they even take the very waste matter
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Uzimaju li uopće sam otpad
09:16
that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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od naše hrane, vlakana i tako dalje,
09:19
and turn it back into soil
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i vraćaju ih zemlji
09:21
and sequester carbon --
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i odvajaju ugljik --
09:23
take carbon out of the air
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uzimaju ugljik iz zraka
09:25
in the process of using our cities?
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u postupku iskorištavanja gradova?
09:27
I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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Priznao bih vam da su sve te stvari ne samo moguće,
09:30
they're being done right now,
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nego se već rade
09:32
and that it's a darn good thing.
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što je stvarno dobra stvar.
09:34
Because right now, our economy by and large
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U ovom trenutku naše gospodarstvo općenito
09:37
operates as Paul Hawken said,
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funkcionira kako je rekao Paul Hawken:
09:39
"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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"ukradite budućnost, prodajte je u sadašnjosti
09:41
and calling it GDP."
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i nazovite je BDP".
09:43
And if we have another eight billion
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Ako dodatnih osam milijardi
09:45
or seven billion,
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ili sedam milijardi
09:47
or six billion, even, people,
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ili čak šest milijardi ljudi
09:49
living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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živi na planetu na kojemu njihovi gradovi kradu budućnost
09:52
we're going to run out of future really fast.
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ubrzo će nam ponestati te budućnosti.
09:54
But if we think differently,
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No ako počnemo drukčije razmišljati
09:56
I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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mislim da zapravo možemo imati gradove
09:58
that are not only zero emissions,
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ne samo bez emisije štetnih plinova,
10:00
but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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no također s beskrajnim mogućnostima.
10:02
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
10:04
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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