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譯者: Xiujian Xie
審譯者: Resa CC
00:15
Climate change is already a heavy topic,
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全球氣候變遷已是個沉重的話題,
00:17
and it's getting heavier
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並有愈加沉重之勢,
00:19
because we're understanding
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因為我們開始意識到
00:21
that we need to do more than we are.
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我們現在所做的努力還遠遠不夠。
00:23
We're understanding, in fact,
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事實上,我們開始意識到
00:25
that those of us who live in the developed world
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生活在發達國家的我們
00:27
need to be really pushing towards eliminating our emissions.
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需要努力減少廢氣排放。
00:30
That's, to put it mildly, not what's on the table now.
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而这想法,說得婉轉些,还未被列入議程。
00:33
And it tends to feel a little overwhelming
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當我們著眼於現今的實際面
00:35
when we look at what is there in reality today
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和當前的艱巨難題,
00:38
and the magnitude of the problem that we face.
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心头便被不安和彷徨籠罩。
00:41
And when we have overwhelming problems in front of us,
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而當我們面對問題不知所措時
00:44
we tend to seek simple answers.
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就容易「頭痛醫頭,腳痛醫腳」。
00:47
And I think this is what we've done with climate change.
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我認為我們處理氣候變化的方式就是這樣。
00:50
We look at where the emissions are coming from --
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我們環顧四周尋找廢氣排放的源頭 ——
00:52
they're coming out of our tailpipes and smokestacks and so forth,
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它們從排氣管中來,從工廠煙囪里來……
00:55
and we say, okay, well the problem is
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然後我們就斷言,好了,病灶發現嘍
00:57
that they're coming out of fossil fuels that we're burning,
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廢氣就來自那些礦物燃料,
00:59
so therefore, the answer must be
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所以呢,要解決這個問題,
01:02
to replace those fossil fuels with clean sources of energy.
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就把那些礦物燃料替換成清潔能源好了。
01:05
And while, of course, we do need clean energy,
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而此時,當然啦,我們又確實需要綠色能源,
01:08
I would put to you that it's possible
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但我想告訴你們,
01:10
that by looking at climate change
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若單是認為使用綠色能源
01:12
as a clean energy generation problem,
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便能解決氣候變遷的問題,
01:14
we're in fact setting ourselves up
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我們是在作繭自縛,
01:16
not to solve it.
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別指望解決問題。
01:18
And the reason why
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因為
01:20
is that we live on a planet
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我們寄居的這個星球
01:22
that is rapidly urbanizing.
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其都市化進程相當迅猛。
01:24
That shouldn't be news to any of us.
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或許這對大家來說是老調重彈。
01:26
However, it's hard sometimes
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但有時候,大家對於
01:28
to remember the extent of that urbanization.
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都市化所能達到的程度沒有概念。
01:31
By mid-century,
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再過50年,
01:33
we're going to have about eight billion -- perhaps more -- people
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將有大約80億人口——也許更多——
01:36
living in cities or within a day's travel of one.
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生活在城市或者與城市相隔不出一天車程的地方。
01:39
We will be an overwhelmingly urban species.
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屆時我們將成為一個難以被駕馭的「城市兵團」。
01:42
In order to provide
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為了
01:44
the kind of energy that it would take
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讓那八十億人的日子
01:46
for eight billion people living in cities
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過得
01:48
that are even somewhat like the cities
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有那麼丁點兒
01:50
that those of us in the global North live in today,
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像當今北半球城里人的影子,
01:52
we would have to generate
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我們都必須生產
01:54
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy.
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數量十分驚人的能源。
01:56
It may be possible
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而且很可能
01:58
that we are not even able
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我們無法製造出
02:00
to build that much clean energy.
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那樣多的清潔能源。
02:03
So if we're seriously talking about tackling climate change
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因此如果我們真的希望在城市化進程中
02:06
on an urbanizing planet,
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探討應對大氣變遷的方案的話,
02:08
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
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我們需要改變視角,另闢蹊徑。
02:11
The solution, in fact, may be closer to hand than we think,
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而那個我們夢寐以求的方案,可能比我們想像的要來得容易。
02:14
because all of those cities we're building
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因為那些處於雛形階段的城市
02:16
are opportunities.
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都是我們的機會。
02:18
Every city determines to a very large extent
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每一個城市在很大程度上
02:21
the amount of energy used by its inhabitants.
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都決定了其居民所消耗的能源量。
02:24
We tend to think of energy use as a behavioral thing --
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我們習慣性地認為自己可以主觀控制能源的消耗——
02:27
I choose to turn this light switch on --
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譬如「是我想把這燈打開」——
02:29
but really, enormous amounts of our energy use
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但事實上,有很大一部份能源的消耗
02:32
are predestined
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是由
02:34
by the kinds of communities and cities that we live in.
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我們居住的社區、城市決定的。
02:37
I won't show you very many graphs today,
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我今天不打算向你們展示很多圖表,
02:39
but if I can just focus on this one for a moment,
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但面前的這一張值得大家關注,
02:42
it really tells us a lot of what we need to know --
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圖中有一些我們應該瞭解的訊息——
02:44
which is, quite simply,
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很明顯,
02:46
that if you look, for example, at transportation,
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就拿圖表上「交通工具」——
02:48
a major category of climate emissions,
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即大氣廢物的主要排放源——來說,
02:50
there is a direct relationship
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一個城市
02:52
between how dense a city is
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其人口、建施的密度
02:54
and the amount of climate emissions
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與其居民製造的排放物之間
02:56
that its residents spew out into the air.
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有著直接聯繫。
02:59
And the correlation, of course,
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這關聯,從圖上可以看出,
03:01
is that denser places tend to have lower emissions --
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即是:密度越大,其排放物反而愈少——
03:04
which isn't really all that difficult to figure out, if you think about it.
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仔細想想,這其實也不難理解。
03:07
Basically,
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平時生活中,
03:09
we substitute, in our lives,
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我們為得到自己想要的東西
03:12
access to the things we want.
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而驅車數里。
03:14
We go out there and we hop in our cars
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一出門我們就坐上車,
03:16
and we drive from place to place.
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穿梭于一個又一個地點間。
03:18
And we're basically using mobility to get the access we need.
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基本上,我們做什麽都離不開車。
03:21
But when we live in a denser community,
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但倘若我們居住在一個較密集的社區,
03:23
suddenly what we find, of course,
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突然間,我們會發現,
03:25
is that the things we need are close by.
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那些我們需要的東西近在咫尺。
03:27
And since the most sustainable trip
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而且最划算的旅行
03:29
is the one that you never had to make in the first place,
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就是「呆在原地打轉兒」,
03:32
suddenly our lives become instantly more sustainable.
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突然間,我們會發現日子過得更加經濟划算了。
03:35
And it is possible, of course,
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而當然了,
03:37
to increase the density of the communities around us.
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提高社區的密度是完全有可能的。
03:40
Some places are doing this with new eco districts,
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一些地方已經開始試行生態區了,
03:42
developing whole new sustainable neighborhoods,
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他們正在那裡打造一種全新的可持續發展的社區模式,
03:44
which is nice work if you can get it,
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如果你能理解,便知道這樣做的好處。
03:46
but most of the time, what we're talking about is, in fact,
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但大多數時候,我們所討論的是,
03:49
reweaving the urban fabric that we already have.
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如何重新雕琢城市的肌理。
03:51
So we're talking about things like infill development:
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因此我們所關注的是諸如「填充式開發」這類問題:
03:54
really sharp little changes
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這意味著我們不會對
03:56
to where we have buildings, where we're developing.
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現有的房屋和正在開發中的地段做大幅度改動。
03:58
Urban retrofitting:
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對城市進行翻新:
04:00
creating different sorts of spaces and uses
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即在現有的條件下
04:02
out of places that are already there.
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再額外開發一些多功能的空間。
04:04
Increasingly, we're realizing
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越來越多的人開始認識到
04:06
that we don't even need to densify an entire city.
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我們沒必要將城市每一個角落的密度都加大。
04:09
What we need instead is an average density
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我們需要做的只是將整座城市的
04:12
that rises to a level
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平均密度提升到一個水平
04:14
where we don't drive as much and so on.
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從而使我們不必像現在這樣依賴汽車。
04:16
And that can be done
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而要實現以上的目標
04:18
by raising the density in very specific spots a whole lot.
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只需要大幅度提升某一些特定場所的密度即可。
04:21
So you can think of it as tent poles
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你可以把這想像成
04:24
that actually raise the density of the entire city.
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是一些帳篷杆將整個城市的密度撐高了。
04:27
And we find that when we do that,
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而當我們真的這樣做時,
04:29
we can, in fact, have a few places that are really hyper-dense
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我們就會發現,其實在一個
04:31
within a wider fabric of places
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相較寬鬆、令人舒服的大環境中,
04:33
that are perhaps a little more comfortable
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哪怕只有少部份具有高密度的空間,
04:35
and achieve the same results.
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我們也可以獲得相同的成效。
04:37
Now we may find that there are places that are really, really dense
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但現在我們可能會發現有些空間的密度已經相當高了,
04:40
and still hold onto their cars,
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但人們還是沒有擯棄汽車,
04:42
but the reality is that, by and large,
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其實,總的來說,情況是這樣的,
04:45
what we see when we get a lot of people together with the right conditions
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當我們在適宜的條件下將人口分佈安排得更加緊湊時,
04:48
is a threshold effect,
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接下來便會產生「門檻效應(threshold effect)」,
04:50
where people simply stop driving as much,
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這時人們一開始是變得「不那麼依賴車」,
04:52
and increasingly, more and more people,
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爾後,當越來越多的人
04:54
if they're surrounded by places that make them feel at home,
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被有著家一般感覺的環境所包圍時,
04:56
give up their cars altogether.
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他們就會「戒掉」汽車。
04:58
And this is a huge, huge energy savings,
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而這將節約大量的能源。
05:01
because what comes out of our tailpipe
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因為從我們的尾氣管中所排放出的
05:03
is really just the beginning of the story
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還僅僅是汽車所產生的
05:05
with climate emissions from cars.
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大氣污染物的一小部份。
05:07
We have the manufacture of the car, the disposal of the car,
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我們還必須處理汽車的生產和報廢,
05:09
all of the parking and freeways and so on.
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大量的停車場和高速公路等等。
05:12
When you can get rid of all of those
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而當一些人完全不依賴這些事物時,
05:14
because somebody doesn't use any of them really,
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我們就可以擺脫它們的影響,
05:16
you find that you can actually cut transportation emissions
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這時你將發現,你已經將交通工具產生的污染物
05:18
as much as 90 percent.
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減少了90%
05:20
And people are embracing this.
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並且,人們很高興能遠離汽車。
05:22
All around the world, we're seeing more and more people embrace this walkshed life.
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我們可以看到,全世界越來越多的人開始崇尚步行生活。
05:25
People are saying that it's moving from the idea of the dream home
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人們都說,那感覺相當于從小小理想之家
05:28
to the dream neighborhood.
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搬到到了一個大的理想社區
05:30
And when you layer that over
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若將理想之家置入理想社區
05:32
with the kind of ubiquitous communications that we're starting to see,
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加上便捷的交通網絡,
05:35
what you find is, in fact,
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你就會發現,實際上,
05:37
even more access suffused into spaces.
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我們能獲得的東西變多了。
05:40
Some of it's transportation access.
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而其中一部份就是新的交通方式和路线。
05:42
This is a Mapnificent map that shows me, in this case,
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這是一張Mapnificent網路地圖,它指示出(譯者注:Mapnificent為應用軟體)
05:45
how far I can get from my home in 30 minutes
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從我家出發,借助於公共交通工具,
05:47
using public transportation.
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30分鐘之內我能抵達的地方。
05:49
Some of it is about walking. It's not all perfect yet.
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當然其中有些地方是按步行來算的。這軟體尚未臻完美。
05:51
This is Google Walking Maps.
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這張是來自「Google 步行地圖( Google Walking Maps)」。
05:53
I asked how to do the greater Ridgeway,
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我用它來查尋到Great Ridgeway的路線,
05:55
and it told me to go via Guernsey.
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而它告訴我應該從格恩西島(Guernsey)走。
05:57
It did tell me that this route
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它還告訴我這條路線
05:59
maybe missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths, though.
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可能沒有人行道。
06:01
(Laughter)
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(笑)
06:03
But the technologies are getting better,
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但科技總在進步,
06:05
and we're starting to really kind of crowdsource this navigation.
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我們開始擴充導航系統的資料
06:07
And as we just heard earlier,
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而正如我們早先知道的,
06:09
of course, we're also learning how to put information on dumb objects.
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我們學著在「不會說話的東西」上標注信息。
06:12
Things that don't have any wiring in them at all,
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對沒有任何電線嵌套的東西
06:14
we're learning how to include
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我們也學著將之納入
06:16
in these systems of notation and navigation.
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符號和導航的系統。
06:19
Part of what we're finding with this
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這也讓我們發現,
06:21
is that what we thought
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我們所認為的
06:23
was the major point
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生產與消耗
06:25
of manufacturing and consumption,
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的重點
06:28
which is to get a bunch of stuff,
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只是『得到一堆的東西』,
06:30
is not, in fact,
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而不是,
06:32
how we really live best in dense environments.
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如何能讓我們在密集環境中獲得最優質的生活。
06:34
What we're finding is that what we want
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我們還發現,其實我們一直想要得到的
06:36
is access to the capacities of things.
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也只是能物盡其用而已。
06:38
My favorite example is a drill. Who here owns a drill, a home power drill?
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我最喜歡拿鑽孔機為例。在座的觀眾誰有家用式鑽孔機啊?
06:41
Okay. I do too.
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好,我也有一台。
06:43
The average home power drill is used somewhere between six and 20 minutes
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在家用鑽孔機的一生中,其平均被使用的時間
06:45
in its entire lifetime,
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是6到20分鐘,
06:47
depending on who you ask.
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具體多久則因人而異。
06:49
And so what we do is we buy these drills
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因此我們所做的是將這些
06:52
that have a potential capacity of thousands of hours of drill time,
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本可以工作上千個小時的鑽孔機回家,
06:55
use them once or twice to put a hole in the wall and let them sit.
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爾後只用來打一兩個洞,就置之不理了。
06:58
Our cities, I would put to you,
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而我們的城市,我可以告訴你們,
07:00
are stockpiles of these surplus capacities.
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就儲滿了諸如此類的剩餘能量。
07:03
And while we could try and figure out
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而當我們嘗試著
07:05
new ways to use those capacities --
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開發鑽孔機的新功能時——
07:07
such as cooking or making ice sculptures
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譬如說用來炒菜,用來雕冰
07:09
or even a mafia hit --
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或者是用來做兇器——
07:11
what we probably will find
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我們可能會發現
07:13
is that, in fact, turning those products into services
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其實,更為聰明的辦法是
07:15
that we have access to when we want them,
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將這些產品的功能多元化,
07:17
is a far smarter way to go.
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以便我們需要的時候使用。
07:20
And in fact, even space itself is turning into a service.
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而事實上,就算是單一空間本身也是一個多功能體。
07:23
We're finding that people can share the same spaces,
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我們發現人們可以共享同一個空間,
07:25
do stuff with vacant space.
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可以在空置的地方做任何事情。
07:28
Buildings are becoming bundles of services.
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建築已經開始具有多種功能了。
07:30
So we have new designs
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因此我們的新設計
07:32
that are helping us take mechanical things that we used to spend energy on --
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旨在將那些曾經需要消耗人為能源的機械工作——
07:35
like heating, cooling etc. --
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諸如加熱,冷卻等等——
07:37
and turn them into things that we avoid spending energy on.
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轉化為不需要消耗人為能源的工作。
07:40
So we light our buildings with daylight.
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這樣一來,我們得以用日光照明。
07:42
We cool them with breezes. We heat them with sunshine.
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以自然風來降溫,以太陽能來加熱。
07:45
In fact, when we use all these things,
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而當我們採用這些形式的能源時,
07:47
what we've found is that, in some cases,
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就會發現,在某些情況下,
07:49
energy use in a building can drop as much as 90 percent.
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一幢建築物所消耗的人為能源能降低90%。
07:51
Which brings on another threshold effect
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這就帶來下一個「門檻效應(threshold effect)」
07:53
I like to call furnace dumping,
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我也把它叫做「火爐再見(furnace dumping)」。
07:55
which is, quite simply,
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這理解起來很簡單,
07:57
if you have a building that doesn't need to be heated with a furnace,
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就是如果你的屋子不需要爐子來提供熱能的話,
07:59
you save a whole bunch of money up front.
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你就相當于省了一大筆錢。
08:01
These things actually become cheaper to build
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而就算將這筆錢用在自然能源的採集上,
08:03
than the alternatives.
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那也還是有富餘。
08:05
Now when we look at being able
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那麼現在我們已經可以
08:08
to slash our product use, slash our transportation use,
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大幅度削減物品消耗,削減交通工具的使用頻率,
08:11
slash our building energy use,
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削減建築物能源的消耗量,
08:13
all of that is great, but it still leaves something behind.
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能做到這樣確實很棒,但仍有一些要素被遺漏了。
08:16
And if we're going to really, truly become sustainable cities,
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而倘若我們真想讓城市可持續發展,
08:18
we need to think a little differently.
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我們就需要轉換一下思維。
08:20
This is one way to do it.
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這裡展示的便是其中一種模式。
08:22
This is Vancouver's propaganda about how green a city they are.
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這是溫哥華(Vancouver)為其綠色城市所做的宣傳。
08:24
And certainly lots of people have taken to heart
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而顯然,很多人都認為
08:26
this idea that a sustainable city is covered in greenery.
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一個可持續發展的城市是披滿了綠色植物的。
08:29
So we have visions like this.
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由此我們就看到了這樣的景象。
08:31
We have visions like this. We have visions like this.
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這樣的景象,還有
08:34
Now all of these are fine projects,
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這樣的景象。當然這都是些不錯的企劃,
08:36
but they really have missed an essential point,
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但他們真的忽略了一個要點。
08:39
which is it's not about the leaves above,
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那即是不管高層的綠化做得多麼好,
08:41
it's about the systems below.
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真正的影響則來自下面的設施。
08:43
Do they, for instance, capture rainwater
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譬如說,是否收集雨水
08:45
so that we can reduce water use?
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以便節約水資源?
08:47
Water is energy intensive.
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水的消耗量可謂巨大。
08:50
Do they, perhaps, include green infrastructure,
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是否包含環保基礎建設,
08:52
so that we can take runoff
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可讓我們將徑流
08:54
and water that's going out of our houses
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與生活用水進行
08:56
and clean it and filter it
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淨化並過濾
08:58
and grow urban street trees?
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和澆灌街邊樹木?
09:00
Do they connect us back to the ecosystems around us
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這些設施能否維繫我們與周圍的生態系統,
09:03
by, for example, connecting us to rivers
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譬如,讓我們容易接近川流
09:05
and allowing for restoration?
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並容許河川復育嗎?
09:07
Do they allow for pollination,
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這些工程是否考慮到了『授粉』,
09:09
pollinator pathways
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是否有專門之途徑
09:11
that bees and butterflies and such can come back into our cities?
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將傳播花粉的昆蟲引進我們的城市?
09:14
Do they even take the very waste matter
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工程中有沒有將那些廢棄物,
09:16
that we have from food and fiber and so forth,
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那些來自食物和纖維等物品的廢棄物,
09:19
and turn it back into soil
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收集起來并回歸土壤,
09:21
and sequester carbon --
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在城市運轉當中,
09:23
take carbon out of the air
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有沒有進行固碳——
09:25
in the process of using our cities?
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以減少大氣中碳元素的含量?
09:27
I would submit to you that all of these things are not only possible,
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我想告訴大家,以上所說的都不是紙上談兵,
09:30
they're being done right now,
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它們現在正被落實中,
09:32
and that it's a darn good thing.
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這是再好不過了。
09:34
Because right now, our economy by and large
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因為此時,大體來看我們的經濟運作方式
09:37
operates as Paul Hawken said,
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就像保羅•霍肯(Paul Hawken)說的那樣,
09:39
"by stealing the future, selling it in the present
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「竊取未來,揮霍於今日
09:41
and calling it GDP."
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此即國內生產毛額(GDP)。」
09:43
And if we have another eight billion
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而如果再增加80億
09:45
or seven billion,
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或者70億,
09:47
or six billion, even, people,
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甚至哪怕只是60億人口
09:49
living on a planet where their cities also steal the future,
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居住在這樣一個佈滿「竊取未來資源」的城市的星球上,
09:52
we're going to run out of future really fast.
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未來的資源將很快被我們消耗殆盡。
09:54
But if we think differently,
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但如果我們將思維轉換一下,
09:56
I think that, in fact, we can have cities
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我認為,在現實生活中,
09:58
that are not only zero emissions,
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我們不僅能打造零污染的的城市,
10:00
but have unlimited possibilities as well.
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而且還將擁有無限的「可能」。
10:02
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家。
10:04
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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