How state budgets are breaking US schools | Bill Gates

Prevodilac: Djordje Ljubisic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Well, this is about state budgets.

Dakle, govorimo o državnim budžetima.

This is probably the most boring topic

Ovo je verovatno najdosadnija tema čitavog ovog jutra.

of the whole morning.

But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic

Međutim, želim da vam kažem da smatram da je to važna tema

that we need to care about.

o kojoj moramo da brinemo.

State budgets

Državni budžeti su ogromne svote novca.

are big, big money --

I'll show you the numbers --

Pokazaću vam te cifre -

and they get very little scrutiny.

a one podležu veoma maloj kontroli.

The understanding is very low.

Razumevanje je na veoma niskom nivou.

Many of the people involved

Mnogi ljudi koji su uključeni u to

have special interests or short-term interests

imaju neke posebne ili kratkoročne interese

that get them not thinking

zbog kojih ne razmišljaju

about what the implications of the trends are.

o posledicama tih tendencija.

And these budgets

A ovi budžeti su ključni za našu budućnost;

are the key for our future;

they're the key for our kids.

oni su od ključne važnosti za našu decu.

Most education funding --

Finansiranje obrazovanja, u najvećoj meri -

whether it's K through 12,

bilo da je reč o osnovnom i srednjem obrazovanju,

or the great universities or community colleges --

ili o velikim univerzitetima i višim školama -

most of the money for those things

većina novca za ove stvari

is coming out of these state budgets.

dolazi iz pomenutih državnih budžeta.

But we have a problem.

Međutim, imamo jedan problem.

Here's the overall picture.

Ovako izgleda celokupna slika.

U.S. economy is big --

Ekonomija SAD-a je ogromna -

14.7 trillion.

14,7 biliona dolara.

Now out of that pie,

Naime, od te sume,

the government spends 36 percent.

vlada potroši 36 procenata.

So this is combining the federal level,

Dakle, to je spoj saveznog nivoa,

which is the largest,

koji je najveći,

the state level and the local level.

državnog nivoa i lokalnog nivoa.

And it's really in this combined way

Ovakvim spajanjem zaista možete stvoriti celokupnu sliku

that you get an overall sense of what's going on,

because there's a lot of complex things

onoga što se događa,

zato što postoji mnoštvo složenih stvari,

like Medicaid and research money

kao na primer Medicaid i novčana sredstva za istraživanja

that flow across those boundaries.

koja teku preko ovih granica.

But we're spending 36 percent.

Međutim, mi trošimo 36 procenata.

Well what are we taking in?

A koliko unosimo?

Simple business question.

Ovo je jednostavno poslovno pitanje.

Answer is 26 percent.

Odgovor je 26 procenata.

Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,

To nam, znači, ostavlja 10 procenata deficita.

sort of a mind-blowing number.

Pomalo neverovatna brojka.

And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact

Jedan deo te brojke je zapravo i zbog činjenice

that we've had an economic recession.

da smo imali ekonomsku recesiju.

Receipts go down,

Prihodi se smanjuju,

some spending programs go up,

pojedini programi potrošnje povećavaju,

but most of it is not because of that.

ali, najveći deo tog deficita nije nastao zbog toga.

Most of it is because of ways

Najveći deo postoji zbog načina

that the liabilities are building up

na koje se dugovanja povećavaju

and the trends,

kao i tendencije,

and that creates a huge challenge.

a to stvara ogroman izazov.

In fact, this is the forecast picture.

Ovo je, zapravo, dijagram procene.

There are various things in here:

Raznih stvari ima ovde,

rekao bih da možda možemo podići prihode,

I could say we might raise more revenue,

or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.

ili da će medicinske inovacije čak i povećati potrošnju.

It is an increasingly difficult picture,

Ovo je dijagram koji postaje sve teži i teži,

even assuming the economy does quite well --

čak i ako uzmemo u obzir da privreda funkcioniše prilično dobro -

probably better than it will do.

verovatno bolje nego što će to biti slučaj u budućnosti.

This is what you see

To možete videti na ovom sveukupnom nivou.

at this overall level.

Now how did we get here?

Onda, kako smo stigli dovde?

How could you have a problem like this?

Kako se dolazi do ovakvog problema?

After all, at least on paper,

Na kraju krajeva, barem na papiru,

there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.

postoji i stavka da su ovi državni budžeti balansirani.

Only one state says

Samo jedna država ističe

they don't have to balance the budget.

da oni ne moraju da balansiraju svoj budžet.

But what this means actually

Međutim, ovo zapravo znači

is that there's a pretense.

da tu postoji neka vrsta pretvaranja.

There's no real, true balancing going on,

Nema tu nikakvog stvarnog i istinitog balansiranja.

and in a sense, the games they play to hide that

A donekle, te igre koje oni igraju da bi prikrili sve to

actually obscure the topic so much

u tolikoj meri zamagljuju ovu temu

that people don't see things

da ljudi ne vide stvari koje su zapravo prilično jednostavne.

that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.

When Jerry Brown was elected,

Kada je Džeri Braun bio izabran na izborima,

this was the challenge that was put to him.

pred njega je bio postavljen ovakav izazov.

That is, through various gimmicks and things,

Tačnije, pomoću raznoraznih trikova i mahinacija,

a so-called balanced budget

takozvani izbalansirani budžet

had led him to have 25 billion missing

ga je doveo do toga da mu nedostaje 25 milijardi dolara

out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.

od ukupno predloženih 76 milijardi za potrošnju.

Now he's put together some thoughts:

Onda je on ovako zamislio:

About half of that he'll cut,

otprilike polovinu toga će skresati,

another half,

za drugu polovinu,

perhaps in a very complex set of steps,

verovatno kroz jedan veoma složen sistem postupaka,

taxes will be approved.

biće odobreni porezi.

But even so,

Ali, čak i na ovaj način,

as you go out into those future years,

kada se zakorači u budućnost,

various pension costs, health costs go up enough,

razni penzioni, zdravstveni troškovi se povećavaju u određenoj meri,

and the revenue does not go up enough.

a prihodi se ne povećavaju u dovoljnoj meri.

So you get a big squeeze.

I tako dobijate snažno stezanje kaiša.

What were those things that allowed us to hide this?

Šta nam je to omogućilo da prikrijemo sve ovo?

Well, some really nice little tricks.

Pa, neki zgodni, mali trikovi.

And these were somewhat noticed.

A oni su bili donekle i primećeni.

The paper said, "It's not really balanced.

U novinama je pisalo "Budžet i nije baš balansiran."

It's got holes.

"Ima puno nedostataka."

It perpetuates deficit spending.

"Pospešuje deficitarnu potrošnju."

It's riddled with gimmicks."

"Prepun je mahinacija."

And really when you get down to it,

I zaista, kada ozbiljnije pristupite ovome,

the guys at Enron never would have done this.

ljudi iz Enrona nikada ovo ne bi uradili.

This is so blatant,

To je tako očigledno,

so extreme.

tako ekstremno.

Is anyone paying attention

Da li neko uopšte obraća pažnju

to some of the things these guys do?

na neke stvari koje ovi ljudi rade?

They borrow money.

Oni pozajmljuju novac.

To ne bi trebalo da rade, ali ipak, pronađu način.

They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.

They make you pay more in withholding

Teraju vas da platite više na ime poreza po odbitku

just to help their cash flow out.

samo da bi potpomogli odliv njihovog novca.

They sell off the assets.

Rasprodaju državnu aktivu.

They defer the payments.

Odlažu uplate.

They sell off the revenues from tobacco.

Rasprodaju prihode od duvana.

And California's not unique.

A Kalifornija nije usamljena u ovome.

In fact, there's about five states that are worse

Postoji zapravo pet država koje su u još gorem stanju

and only really four states

a samo četiri, koje zaista nemaju ove velike probleme.

that don't face this big challenge.

So it's systemic across the entire country.

Ovo je, stoga, sistemska pojava, širom ove države.

It really comes from the fact

Sve zapravo potiče od činjenice

da pojedine dugoročne obaveze -

that certain long-term obligations --

health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,

zdravstvena zaštita koju inovacije čine još skupljom,

early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,

prevremeno penzionisanje gde se starosna struktura pogoršava,

and just generosity --

i prosto, rasipništvo -

that these mis-accounting things

omogućavaju da se ove finansijske mahinacije vremenom razvijaju,

allow to develop over time,

that you've got a problem.

i tada imate problem.

This is the retiree health care benefits.

Ovo su troškovi za zdravstvenu zaštitu penzionera.

Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --

Tri miliona je odvojeno, 62 milijarde duga -

much worse than the car companies.

mnogo gora situacija nego u auto-industriji.

And everybody looked at that

I svi su to videli i znali

and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.

da to vodi ka ogromnim problemima.

The forecast for the medical piece alone

Procena rashoda samo za oblast zdravstvene zaštite

is to go from 26 percent of the budget

je da će sa trenutnih 26 procenata budžeta

to 42 percent.

doći do 42 procenta.

Well what's going to give?

A čega se odreći?

Well in order to accommodate that,

Pa, da bi se sve ovo uklopilo,

you would have to cut education spending in half.

izdvajanja za obrazovanje bi se morala prepoloviti.

It really is this young versus the old

Ovo je zaista, donekle, borba

to some degree.

između mladih i starih.

If you don't change that revenue picture,

Ako se ne promeni ova statistika prihoda,

if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,

ako se ne reši ovo što se događa u zdravstvu,

you're going to be deinvesting in the young.

doći će do deinvestiranja u omladinu.

The great University of California university system,

Izvanredni obrazovni sistem Univerziteta u Kaliforniji,

the great things that have gone on,

i izuzetne stvari koje se tamo odvijaju,

won't happen.

neće se više ostvarivati.

So far it's meant layoffs,

Do sada, bilo je otpuštanja i povećanja broja studenata u grupama.

increased class sizes.

Within the education community there's this discussion of,

U obrazovnoj zajednici postoji rasprava o tome

"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,

da li bi trebalo otpustiti samo mlađe nastavnike,

or the less good teachers who get laid off?"

ili one manje dobre nastavnike?

And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,

A tu postoji i pitanje: ako ćete da povećate broj studenata u grupama,

where do you do that? How much effect does that have?

gde ćete to sprovesti, koliki je uticaj toga?

And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,

I nažalost, kada se udubite u to, ljudi se zbune i pomisle,

well maybe you think that's okay.

"Pa, možda ti misliš da je to u redu."

In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.

A zapravo, nije, jer izdvajanja za obrazovanje ne treba da se smanjuju.

There's ways, if it's temporary,

Postoje načini, ako je to privremeno,

to minimize the impact,

da se umanji uticaj,

but it's a problem.

ali to je problematično.

It's also really a problem for where we need to go.

Takođe je problematično i zbog pravca u kojem treba da idemo.

Technology has a role to play.

Tehnologija tu ima značajnu ulogu.

Well we need money to experiment with that,

Potreban nam je novac da bismo eksperimentisali sa tim,

to get those tools in there.

da bismo to oruđe primenili.

There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,

Postoji i zamisao da se nastavnicima plaća za efikasnost,

measuring them, giving them feedback,

da se ocenjuju, da im se pružaju povratne informacije,

taking videos in the classroom.

da se časovi snimaju.

That's something I think is very, very important.

Po mom mišljenju, to je veoma, veoma važno.

Well you have to allocate dollars

Moraju da se izdvoje dolari za ovakav sistem

for that system

and for that incentive pay.

i za takve novčane bonuse.

In a situation where you have growth,

U situaciji u kojoj imate rast i razvoj nečega,

you put the new money into this.

vi ulažete nova sredstva u sve to -

Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.

čak i ako ste na nuli, možete preusmeriti novac u to.

But with the type of cuts we're talking about,

Ali uz ovakva smanjenja o kojima pričamo,

it will be far, far harder

biće daleko, daleko teže

to get these incentives for excellence,

dobiti pomenute novčane bonuse za izuzetnost,

or to move over

ili se pokrenuti i koristiti tehnologiju na nov način.

to use technology in the new way.

So what's going on?

Dakle, šta se dešava?

Where's the brain trust

Gde je taj trust mozgova

that's in error here?

koji ovde greši?

Well there really is no brain trust.

Pa, zapravo, i ne postoji nikakav trust mozgova.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.

Jednim delom smo, glasači, mi, ti koji stupamo na scenu.

Just look at this spending.

Samo pogledajte ovu potrošnju.

California will spend over 100 billion,

Kalifornija će izdvojiti preko 100 milijardi,

Microsoft, 38,

Majkrosoft 38,

Google, about 19.

Gugl oko 19.

The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,

Ukupan koeficijent inteligencije u dobroj numeričkoj analizi,

both inside Google and Microsoft

unutar Gugla i Majkrosofta i izvan njih,

and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --

kod analitičara i ljudi različitih mišljenja -

should they have spent on that?

da li je trebalo da se potroši na sve ovo?

No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --

Ne, oni su spiskali svoj novac na to. A šta je sa ovim? -

it really is quite phenomenal.

to je zaista sjajno.

Everybody has an opinion.

Svi imaju mišljenje.

There's great feedback.

Postoje sjajne povratne informacije.

And the numbers are used to make decisions.

A odluke se donose pomoću brojeva.

If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --

Ako pogledate izdvajanja za obrazovanje i izdvajanja za zdravstvo -

particularly these long-term trends --

a naročito ove dugoročnije tendencije -

you don't have that type of involvement

ne postoji ta vrsta angažovanosti

on a number that's more important

za brojku koja je važnija

in terms of equity, in terms of learning.

u smislu kapitala, učenja.

So what do we need to do?

Dakle, šta treba da učinimo?

We need better tools.

Potrebni su nam bolji alati.

We can get some things out on the Internet.

Nešto od toga možemo naći na internetu.

I'm going to use my website

Na svom sajtu ću postaviti neke stvari

to put up some things that will give the basic picture.

koje će dati osnovnu sliku.

We need lots more.

Potrebno nam je mnogo više.

There's a few good books,

Ima nekoliko dobrih knjiga,

jedna o izdvajanju za školstvo i o tome odakle dolaze sredstva -

one about school spending and where the money comes from --

how that's changed over time, and the challenge.

kako se to promenilo vremenom i o problemima.

We need better accounting.

Potrebno nam je bolje vođenje finansija.

We need to take the fact

Moramo da uzmemo u obzir da će trenutni zaposleni,

that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,

kao i buduća dugovanja koja stvaraju,

that should come out of the current budget.

poteći iz tekućeg budžeta.

We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting

Potrebno je da razumemo zašto se vođenje finansija

the way they have.

za penzione fondove odvija na ovaj način.

It should be more like private accounting.

Trebalo bi da bude sličnije privatnom vođenju finansija.

It's the gold standard.

To je zlatni standard.

And finally, we need to really reward politicians.

I konačno, potrebno je zaista nagraditi političare.

Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,

Kad god kažu da postoje ovakvi dugoročniji problemi,

we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?

na možemo da kažemo, "Znači, vi ste glasnik koji nosi loše vesti?

We just shot you."

Sada ćemo da vas ubijemo."

In fact, there are some like these:

Zapravo, postoje ovakvi političari:

Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,

Erskin Bauls, Alan Simpson i ostali,

who have gone through and given proposals

koji su malo pročešljali i dali predloge

for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.

za ovaj problem ukupnog izdvajanja za zdravstvo u celoj državi.

But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.

Međutim, njihov rad je na neki način odbačen.

In fact, the week afterwards,

A zapravo, nedelju dana kasnije,

some tax cuts were done

sprovedena su neka poreska umanjenja

koja su još više pogoršala situaciju

that made the situation even worse

than their assumptions.

nego što su oni predviđali.

So we need these pieces.

Tako da su nam potrebni svi ovi delovi.

Now I think this is a solvable problem.

Mislim da je ovo rešiv problem.

It's a great country with lots of people.

Ovo je izuzetna država sa mnogo ljudi.

But we have to draw those people in,

Međutim te ljude moramo da uključimo,

because this is about education.

zato što se ovde radi o obrazovanju.

And just look at what happened with the tuitions

I samo pogledajte šta se desilo sa školarinama

with the University of California

na Univerzitetu Kalifornije

and project that out for another three, four, five years --

i projektujte to za narednih tri, četiri, pet godina.

it's unaffordable.

To će postati nemoguće priuštiti.

And that's the kind of thing --

I upravo nas to -

the investment in the young --

ulaganje u mlade ljude -

that makes us great, allows us to contribute.

čini velikim i omogućava nam da damo svoj doprinos.

It allows us to do the art,

Omogućava nam da stvaramo umetnost,

the biotechnology, the software

biotehnologiju, softver

and all those magic things.

i sve te sjajne stvari.

And so the bottom line is

I poenta je

we need to care about state budgets

da moramo da brinemo o državnim budžetima

because they're critical for our kids and our future.

zato što su od ključne važnosti za našu decu i budućnost.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)