How state budgets are breaking US schools | Bill Gates

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Well, this is about state budgets.

Pa, ovo je o državnim proračunima.

This is probably the most boring topic

To je vjerojatno najdosadnija tema

of the whole morning.

cijelog jutra.

But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic

Ali želim vam reći, mislim da je to važna tema

that we need to care about.

kojom se moramo pozabaviti.

State budgets

Državni proračuni

are big, big money --

su veliki, veliki novac

I'll show you the numbers --

-- pokazat ću vam brojke --

and they get very little scrutiny.

i podvrgnuti su jako slabom nadzoru.

The understanding is very low.

Razumijevanje je veoma slabo.

Many of the people involved

Mnogo uključenih ljudi

have special interests or short-term interests

imaju posebne interese ili kratkoročne interese

that get them not thinking

zbog kojih ne razmišljaju

about what the implications of the trends are.

o tome koje su implikacije trendova.

And these budgets

I ovi su proračuni

are the key for our future;

ključni za našu budućnost:

they're the key for our kids.

ključni su za našu djecu.

Most education funding --

Većina financiranja obrazovanja --

whether it's K through 12,

bilo onog od vrtića do osnovne škole,

or the great universities or community colleges --

ili velikih sveučilišta ili centara za više obrazovanje --

most of the money for those things

većina novca za te stvari

is coming out of these state budgets.

dolazi od tih državnih proračuna.

But we have a problem.

Ali imamo problem.

Here's the overall picture.

Evo ukupne slike.

U.S. economy is big --

Ekonomija SAD-a je velika --

14.7 trillion.

14.7 trilijuna dolara.

Now out of that pie,

Od te pite,

the government spends 36 percent.

vlada troši 36 posto.

So this is combining the federal level,

I to je kombinacija federalne razine,

which is the largest,

koja je najveća,

the state level and the local level.

državne razine i lokalne razine.

And it's really in this combined way

I doista, tek tom kombiniranom metodom

that you get an overall sense of what's going on,

možete potpuno shvatiti što se događa

because there's a lot of complex things

jer je puno kompleksnih stvari

like Medicaid and research money

poput Medicaida ili novca za istraživanje

that flow across those boundaries.

koji protječu preko tih granica.

But we're spending 36 percent.

Ali mi pričamo o 36 posto.

Well what are we taking in?

A što mi unosimo?

Simple business question.

Jednostavno poslovno pitanje.

Answer is 26 percent.

Odgovor je 26 posto.

Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,

Dakle, to ostavlja 10 posto deficita.

sort of a mind-blowing number.

Donekle iznenađujući broj.

And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact

I dio toga je zapravo razlog

that we've had an economic recession.

što smo imali ekonomsku recesiju.

Receipts go down,

Prihodi se smanjuju,

some spending programs go up,

neki programi koji troše se povećavaju,

but most of it is not because of that.

ali većina nije zbog toga.

Most of it is because of ways

Većina je zbog načina

that the liabilities are building up

na koji se obaveze

and the trends,

i trendovi povećavaju,

and that creates a huge challenge.

i to stvara veliki izazov.

In fact, this is the forecast picture.

Zapravo, ovo je slika predviđanja.

There are various things in here:

Ovdje su različite stvari,

I could say we might raise more revenue,

mogao bih reći da bi mogli podići prihode

or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.

i da će medicinske inovacije još više povećati trošenje.

It is an increasingly difficult picture,

To je sve teža slika,

even assuming the economy does quite well --

čak i ako pretpostavimo da će ekonomiji ići veoma dobro --

probably better than it will do.

vjerojatno bolje nego što zaista hoće.

This is what you see

To je ono što se vidi

at this overall level.

na toj ukupnoj razini.

Now how did we get here?

Kako smo došli ovdje?

How could you have a problem like this?

Kako se stvori problem poput ovoga?

After all, at least on paper,

Naposljetku, barem na papiru,

there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.

postoji ideja da su ti državni proračuni izbalansirani.

Only one state says

Samo jedna država tvrdi

they don't have to balance the budget.

da oni ne moraju balansirati proračun.

But what this means actually

To zapravo znači

is that there's a pretense.

da postoji prijevara.

There's no real, true balancing going on,

Ne dolazi do pravog, ispravnog balansiranja.

and in a sense, the games they play to hide that

I zapravo, igre koje igraju kako bi to prekrili,

actually obscure the topic so much

zamračuju temu toliko

that people don't see things

da ljudi ne vide stvari

that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.

koje su ustvari vrlo očiti problemi.

When Jerry Brown was elected,

Kada je Jerry Brown bio izabran,

this was the challenge that was put to him.

to je bio izazov koji je stavljen pred njega.

That is, through various gimmicks and things,

To jest, kroz razne trikove i stvari,

a so-called balanced budget

takozvani izbalansirani proračun

had led him to have 25 billion missing

ga je doveo do toga da mu je 25 milijardi falilo

out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.

iz 76 milijardi u predviđenom trošenju.

Now he's put together some thoughts:

Sada je on spojio neke misli:

About half of that he'll cut,

Otprilike pola toga će srezati,

another half,

a drugu će polovicu,

perhaps in a very complex set of steps,

možda u veoma kompleksnom setu koraka,

taxes will be approved.

odobriti porezi.

But even so,

Ali čak i tako,

as you go out into those future years,

kako vrijeme odmiče,

various pension costs, health costs go up enough,

razni troškovi mirovina, zdravstveni troškovi se dižu dovoljno,

and the revenue does not go up enough.

a prihodi se ne dižu dovoljno.

So you get a big squeeze.

I tako dobijete veliki škripac.

What were those things that allowed us to hide this?

Koje su nam to stvari omogućile da to prikrijemo?

Well, some really nice little tricks.

Pa, postoje veoma dobri mali trikovi.

And these were somewhat noticed.

I oni su bili donekle primijećeni.

The paper said, "It's not really balanced.

Novine bi rekle, „Nije zaista izbalansiran“.

It's got holes.

„Postoje rupe“.

It perpetuates deficit spending.

„Ovjekovječuje trošenje u deficitu“.

It's riddled with gimmicks."

„Prepun je trikova“.

And really when you get down to it,

I zaista, kada se upustite u to,

the guys at Enron never would have done this.

dečki iz Enrona to ne bi nikada napravili.

This is so blatant,

To je tako nesumnjivo,

so extreme.

tako ekstremno.

Is anyone paying attention

Obraća li itko pozornost

to some of the things these guys do?

na neke od stvari koje ti ljudi čine?

They borrow money.

Oni posuđuju novac.

They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.

Ne bi to trebali moći, ali oni nađu način.

They make you pay more in withholding

Natjeraju tebe da platiš više u odbitku

just to help their cash flow out.

samo kako bi pomogli protoku novca van.

They sell off the assets.

Prodaju imovinu.

They defer the payments.

Odgađaju otplate.

They sell off the revenues from tobacco.

Rasprodaju poreze na duhan.

And California's not unique.

I Kalifornija nije jedina.

In fact, there's about five states that are worse

Zapravo, postoji pet država kojima je još gore

and only really four states

i samo četiri države

that don't face this big challenge.

koje nisu suočene s ovim velikim problemom.

So it's systemic across the entire country.

Dakle sustavno je diljem cijele zemlje.

It really comes from the fact

To zaista potječe od činjenice

that certain long-term obligations --

da neke dugoročne obaveze --

health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,

zdravstvena skrb koju inovacije čine skupljom,

early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,

rano umirovljenje i mirovina gdje dobna struktura postaje sve gora za vas,

and just generosity --

i jednostavno darežljivost --

that these mis-accounting things

da se tim protu-knjigovodstvenim stvarima

allow to develop over time,

dopušta da se razvijaju preko vremena,

that you've got a problem.

da imate problem.

This is the retiree health care benefits.

Ovo su zdravstvene beneficije umirovljenika.

Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --

Tri milijuna ostavljena sa strane, 62 milijarde dugovanja --

much worse than the car companies.

puno gore nego auto kompanije.

And everybody looked at that

I svi su gledali to

and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.

i znali da to stvara golem problem.

The forecast for the medical piece alone

Prognoza za samo medicinski dio

is to go from 26 percent of the budget

je da se popne s 26 posto proračuna

to 42 percent.

na 42 posto.

Well what's going to give?

Što će se promijeniti?

Well in order to accommodate that,

Pa, da bi se tome prilagodilo,

you would have to cut education spending in half.

morali biste prerezati troškove obrazovanja na pola.

It really is this young versus the old

To je zapravo mladost protiv starosti

to some degree.

donekle.

If you don't change that revenue picture,

Ako ne promijenite sliku prihoda,

if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,

ako ne riješite što radite u zdravstvenoj skrbi,

you're going to be deinvesting in the young.

manje ćete investirati u mlade.

The great University of California university system,

Veliki sveučilišni sustav Sveučilišta Kalifornije,

the great things that have gone on,

velike stvari koje su se događale,

won't happen.

neće se dogoditi.

So far it's meant layoffs,

Do sada je to značilo otpuštanja,

increased class sizes.

povećanje veličine razreda.

Within the education community there's this discussion of,

Unutar prosvjetnih krugova postoji rasprava:

"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,

"Bi li otkaz trebali dobivati samo mladi učitelji

or the less good teachers who get laid off?"

ili oni manje dobri učitelji?"

And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,

Također postoji i rasprava: Ako ćete povećati razrede,

where do you do that? How much effect does that have?

gdje ćete to napraviti? Koliki efekt to ima?

And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,

I nažalost, kako se upuštate u to, ljudi postaju zbunjeni i pomisle

well maybe you think that's okay.

„Možda, ako vi mislite da je to u redu“.

In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.

Zapravo, ne, troškovi obrazovanja ne bi trebali biti srezani.

There's ways, if it's temporary,

Postoje načini, ako je to privremeno,

to minimize the impact,

da se smanji učinak,

but it's a problem.

ali to je problem.

It's also really a problem for where we need to go.

I također je to veliki problem za ono gdje želimo ići.

Technology has a role to play.

Tehnologija ima ulogu za odigrati.

Well we need money to experiment with that,

Pa mi trebamo novac da bi s tim eksperimentirali,

to get those tools in there.

kako bi progurali ta pomagala.

There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,

Postoji zamisao da se učitelja plaća po učinkovitosti,

measuring them, giving them feedback,

da ih se procjenjuje, daje povratne informacije,

taking videos in the classroom.

snima učionice.

That's something I think is very, very important.

To je nešto što ja smatram da je jako, jako važno.

Well you have to allocate dollars

E, pa za to morate dodijeliti novac

for that system

za taj sistem

and for that incentive pay.

i za tu poticajnu plaću.

In a situation where you have growth,

U situaciji gdje imate porast,

you put the new money into this.

odvajate novi novac za to --

Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.

čak iako ste na nuli, možete prenamijeniti novac u to.

But with the type of cuts we're talking about,

Ali s tipovima rezanja o kojima mi govorimo,

it will be far, far harder

bilo bi puno, puno teže

to get these incentives for excellence,

dobiti ove poticaje za izvrsnost,

or to move over

ili premjestiti se

to use technology in the new way.

na korištenje tehnologije na novi način.

So what's going on?

Dakle, što se događa?

Where's the brain trust

Gdje je trust mozgova

that's in error here?

koji ovdje griješi?

Well there really is no brain trust.

Zapravo ne postoji trust mozgova.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.

Pomalo su to glasači, pomalo smo to mi koji se pravimo važni.

Just look at this spending.

Pogledajte ove troškove.

California will spend over 100 billion,

Kalifornija će potrošiti preko 100 milijardi dolara,

Microsoft, 38,

Microsoft 38,

Google, about 19.

Google otprilike 19.

The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,

Količina IQ-a u dobroj numeričkoj analizi,

both inside Google and Microsoft

i unutar i izvan Google-a i Microsofta,

and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --

s analitičarima i ljudima različitog mišljenja --

should they have spent on that?

jesu li trebali trošiti na to?

No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --

Ne, bez veze su potrošili novac na ovo. A što s ovim? --

it really is quite phenomenal.

zaista je fenomenalna.

Everybody has an opinion.

Svi imaju mišljenje.

There's great feedback.

Odlične su povratne informacije.

And the numbers are used to make decisions.

I brojevi se koriste kako bi se donijele odluke.

If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --

Ako prođete kroz troškove obrazovanja i troškove zdravstvene skrbi --

particularly these long-term trends --

pogotovo ove dugoročne trendove -

you don't have that type of involvement

nemate takav tip sudjelovanja

on a number that's more important

na broju koji je puno važniji

in terms of equity, in terms of learning.

u okvirima pravednosti, okvirima učenja.

So what do we need to do?

Dakle što moramo napraviti?

We need better tools.

Trebamo bolja pomagala.

We can get some things out on the Internet.

Neke stvari možemo staviti na Internet.

I'm going to use my website

Ja ću iskoristiti svoju web stranicu

to put up some things that will give the basic picture.

kako bih pokazao neke stvari koje će dati osnovnu sliku.

We need lots more.

Mi trebamo puno više.

There's a few good books,

Postoji nekoliko dobrih knjiga,

one about school spending and where the money comes from --

jedna o školskim troškovima i izvorima novca --

how that's changed over time, and the challenge.

kako se to mijenjalo preko vremena i izazovu.

We need better accounting.

Trebamo bolje knjigovodstvo.

We need to take the fact

Trebamo imati na umu činjenicu

that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,

da sadašnji zaposlenici, buduća dugovanja koja oni stvore,

that should come out of the current budget.

to treba proizaći iz aktualnog proračuna.

We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting

Moramo shvatiti zašto su oni uredili mirovinsko obračunavanje

the way they have.

tako kako jesu.

It should be more like private accounting.

Trebalo bi biti više kao privatno računovodstvo.

It's the gold standard.

To je zlatni standard.

And finally, we need to really reward politicians.

I na kraju, zaista trebamo nagraditi političare.

Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,

Kada god oni ukažu na postojanje tih dugoročnih problema,

we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?

ne smijemo reći: „O, ti si glasnik s lošim vijestima?

We just shot you."

Upucat ćemo te“.

In fact, there are some like these:

Zapravo postoje neki takvi poput

Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,

Eskine Bowles, Alana Simpsona i ostalih,

who have gone through and given proposals

koji su prošli kroz to i dali prijedloge

for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.

za ovaj problem općeg federalnog zdravstvenog trošenja na državnoj razini.

But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.

Ali njihov je rad zapravo odgurnut sa strane.

In fact, the week afterwards,

Zapravo, tjedan poslije,

some tax cuts were done

doneseni su neki porezi

that made the situation even worse

koji su situaciju učinili još gorom

than their assumptions.

od njihovih pretpostavki.

So we need these pieces.

Dakle, trebamo te komade.

Now I think this is a solvable problem.

Ja mislim da je ovo rješiv problem.

It's a great country with lots of people.

Ovo je divna zemlja s puno ljudi.

But we have to draw those people in,

Ali te ljude moramo privući,

because this is about education.

jer se radi o obrazovanju.

And just look at what happened with the tuitions

Pogledajte samo što se dogodilo sa školarinama

with the University of California

Sveučilišta Kalifornije

and project that out for another three, four, five years --

i projektom koji će trajati još tri, četiri, pet godina.

it's unaffordable.

Ne možemo si ga priuštiti.

And that's the kind of thing --

I to je nešto što --

the investment in the young --

investicija u mlade --

that makes us great, allows us to contribute.

što nas čini velikima, dozvoljava nam da doprinosimo.

It allows us to do the art,

Dozvoljava nam da stvaramo umjetnost,

the biotechnology, the software

biotehnologiju, softvere

and all those magic things.

i sve te magične stvari.

And so the bottom line is

Dakle, osnovna poruka je

we need to care about state budgets

da nam treba biti stalo do državnih proračuna

because they're critical for our kids and our future.

jer su oni ključni za našu djecu i našu budućnost.

Thank you.

Hvala vam

(Applause)

(Pljesak)