How state budgets are breaking US schools | Bill Gates

翻译人员: Lili Liang 校对人员: Angelia King

Well, this is about state budgets.

这与州预算有关

This is probably the most boring topic

这可能是整个上午

of the whole morning.

最无聊的话题

But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic

但是我想告诉你们，我认为这是个重要的话题

that we need to care about.

值得我们关注

State budgets

州预算

are big, big money --

是一大笔钱－－

I'll show you the numbers --

我给大家看这些数字－－

and they get very little scrutiny.

而这些数字几乎没有经过审计

The understanding is very low.

这令人费解

Many of the people involved

许多相关人员

have special interests or short-term interests

只看到特殊或短期的利益

that get them not thinking

而忽视了

about what the implications of the trends are.

这么做在将来会产生什么后果

And these budgets

这些预算

are the key for our future;

对于我们的未来至关重要

they're the key for our kids.

它们是孩子成长的关键

Most education funding --

绝大多数教育资金－－

whether it's K through 12,

不论是幼儿园到高中

or the great universities or community colleges --

还是重点大学或社区大学－－

most of the money for those things

大多数被投入这些方面的资金

is coming out of these state budgets.

都是从州预算中拨出

But we have a problem.

但这里出了个问题

Here's the overall picture.

这是总体的情况

U.S. economy is big --

美国的经济非常庞大－－

14.7 trillion.

十四万七千亿

Now out of that pie,

而在这块馅饼中

the government spends 36 percent.

政府开支占了36%

So this is combining the federal level,

这是联邦政府一级－－

which is the largest,

也就是最大的这部分－－

the state level and the local level.

州一级、地方一级的支出总和

And it's really in this combined way

只有从整体的角度看

that you get an overall sense of what's going on,

你才能大体了解实际的情况

because there's a lot of complex things

因为里面有许多复杂的事情

like Medicaid and research money

如医疗保障以及研究经费

that flow across those boundaries.

在这些分界线之间

But we're spending 36 percent.

但我们的支出占了36%

Well what are we taking in?

而我们的收入是多少？

Simple business question.

简单的商业问题

Answer is 26 percent.

答案是26%

Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,

那么10%的赤字就产生了

sort of a mind-blowing number.

有点骇人听闻

And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact

在某种程度上，这是由于

that we've had an economic recession.

我们刚遭受了经济衰退的影响

Receipts go down,

收入降低

some spending programs go up,

而一些支出项目增多

but most of it is not because of that.

然而这些并不是主要原因

Most of it is because of ways

主要原因在于

that the liabilities are building up

负债不断累积

and the trends,

后果逐渐暴露

and that creates a huge challenge.

因而产生了一个巨大的挑战

In fact, this is the forecast picture.

实际上，这就是未来的发展趋势

There are various things in here:

这里涉及了不同的内容

I could say we might raise more revenue,

可以说我们可能会筹到更多收入

or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.

或着说，医疗创新的支出将增大

It is an increasingly difficult picture,

事态越来越严重

even assuming the economy does quite well --

这还是在经济发展景气下的预期－－

probably better than it will do.

也许比实际情况要乐观一些

This is what you see

这是从总体角度

at this overall level.

所看到的情况

Now how did we get here?

那么我们是怎么落到这一地步的？

How could you have a problem like this?

怎么会出现这样的问题？

After all, at least on paper,

毕竟，至少在书面上

there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.

白纸黑字写着这些州政府的预算是收支平衡的

Only one state says

只有一个州报告说

they don't have to balance the budget.

他们不需要平衡预算

But what this means actually

言下之意就是

is that there's a pretense.

其中存在猫腻

There's no real, true balancing going on,

根本不存在真正意义上的收支平衡

and in a sense, the games they play to hide that

但从某种意义上说，他们所玩的把戏

actually obscure the topic so much

实际上掩盖了实质问题

that people don't see things

模糊了人们的视线

that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.

看不到迫在眉睫的挑战

When Jerry Brown was elected,

杰里·布朗当选加州州长后

this was the challenge that was put to him.

这些挑战就等着他来应付了

That is, through various gimmicks and things,

通过许多不为人知的手段

a so-called balanced budget

一份所谓的收支平衡的预算报告出炉了

had led him to have 25 billion missing

结果，在他所提议的760亿支出中

out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.

有250亿元的空白

Now he's put together some thoughts:

现在他整理了一下思路：

About half of that he'll cut,

他将要削减一半的支出

another half,

而另一半

perhaps in a very complex set of steps,

也许可以通过非常繁琐的一系列步骤

taxes will be approved.

能够通过收税来弥补

But even so,

但即便如此

as you go out into those future years,

几年以后

various pension costs, health costs go up enough,

各项补贴，医疗成本都会提高

and the revenue does not go up enough.

而政府收入提高的幅度不够

So you get a big squeeze.

那到时候你就捉襟见肘了

What were those things that allowed us to hide this?

我们通过什么样的手段掩盖了这一切？

Well, some really nice little tricks.

一些非常高明的把戏

And these were somewhat noticed.

这些把戏多少已经露出了马脚

The paper said, "It's not really balanced.

报告上说：“收支并未真正平衡。”

It's got holes.

“其中有猫腻。”

It perpetuates deficit spending.

“这使得赤字不断扩大。”

It's riddled with gimmicks."

“其中充满了骗人的把戏。”

And really when you get down to it,

如果你仔细进行调查

the guys at Enron never would have done this.

安然公司的那帮人绝对不会得逞

This is so blatant,

这太明目张胆了

so extreme.

太极端了

Is anyone paying attention

难道没有人注意到

to some of the things these guys do?

这些人的所做所为吗？

They borrow money.

他们借东家补西家

They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.

他们本不应这么做，但他们还是想出了对策

They make you pay more in withholding

他们让你缴纳更多税钱

just to help their cash flow out.

帮助他们周转资金

They sell off the assets.

他们变卖资产

They defer the payments.

他们赊账

They sell off the revenues from tobacco.

他们变卖烟草的收入

And California's not unique.

加利福尼亚州不是唯一的案例

In fact, there's about five states that are worse

实际上，约有五个州的情况比加州更严重

and only really four states

只有四个州

that don't face this big challenge.

不存在这样巨大的挑战

So it's systemic across the entire country.

这在整个国家已形成了体系

It really comes from the fact

挑战来自于

that certain long-term obligations --

某些长期的支出项目－－

health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,

医学创新需要花更多的钱

early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,

提早退休与养老金等问题让你对年龄结构更加头疼

and just generosity --

还有公益事业－－

that these mis-accounting things

这些方面的假帐

allow to develop over time,

如果持续发展下去

that you've got a problem.

就会出现问题

This is the retiree health care benefits.

这是退休人员的医疗福利

Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --

预算拨款为三百万美元，而实际负债为620亿美元－－

much worse than the car companies.

这比汽车公司的情况遭多了

And everybody looked at that

不管是谁看了

and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.

都知道这最终会产生巨大的问题

The forecast for the medical piece alone

医疗预算的走势

is to go from 26 percent of the budget

将从预算的26%

to 42 percent.

增加到42%

Well what's going to give?

钱从哪里来？

Well in order to accommodate that,

为了照顾这一块

you would have to cut education spending in half.

你不得不将教育开支削减一半

It really is this young versus the old

从某种角度来看

to some degree.

这还真是青年人与老年人之间的利益之争

If you don't change that revenue picture,

如果你不改变收入状况

if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,

不解决医疗保障问题

you're going to be deinvesting in the young.

你就只能减少对年轻一代的投资

The great University of California university system,

宏伟的加利福尼亚高校体系

the great things that have gone on,

正在进行的各项伟大事业

won't happen.

都将不复存在了

So far it's meant layoffs,

现在，这意味着失业

increased class sizes.

以及课堂规模的增大

Within the education community there's this discussion of,

在教育界，人们在讨论

"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,

“究竟应该让年轻教师下岗

or the less good teachers who get laid off?"

还是让不合格教师下岗？”

And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,

还有一个讨论：如果要增大课堂规模

where do you do that? How much effect does that have?

你从何入手？这会产生多大的影响？

And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,

不幸的是，你问得越多，人们就越迷惑，他们会想：

well maybe you think that's okay.

“这么说，你觉得这没问题。”

In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.

实际上，教育支出不应被削减

There's ways, if it's temporary,

如果教育支出的削减只是暂时的

to minimize the impact,

那么总有办法把影响减小到最低

but it's a problem.

但这是个大问题

It's also really a problem for where we need to go.

另一个大问题是我们应从哪里入手

Technology has a role to play.

技术这方面的作用非常重要

Well we need money to experiment with that,

而我们需要资金来进行实验

to get those tools in there.

才能引入那些技术

There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,

我们建议根据教师的教学成效来对其支付工资

measuring them, giving them feedback,

对其工作进行衡量，给他们反馈

taking videos in the classroom.

为课堂录像

That's something I think is very, very important.

我认为这么做非常非常重要

Well you have to allocate dollars

你必须为这个制度

for that system

以及激励性薪资

and for that incentive pay.

分配资金

In a situation where you have growth,

在你的资金有所增长的情况下

you put the new money into this.

你把新增资金投入这一方面－－

Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.

即使你的资金没有增长，你也应该从别处筹钱投入进去

But with the type of cuts we're talking about,

然而这种教育支出的削减

it will be far, far harder

会让我们更加难以

to get these incentives for excellence,

提供激励薪资

or to move over

或进一步

to use technology in the new way.

以新的方式利用技术

So what's going on?

那么情况到底怎么样？

Where's the brain trust

究竟是哪个幕后智囊团

that's in error here?

出了错误

Well there really is no brain trust.

其实，这里根本就不存在智囊团

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.

这只是我们这些选民，站出来指出问题

Just look at this spending.

看看这些支出

California will spend over 100 billion,

加州将支出1000多亿美元

Microsoft, 38,

微软公司380亿

Google, about 19.

谷歌公司约为190亿

The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,

谷歌与微软

both inside Google and Microsoft

内部与外部都有善于进行数据分析的

and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --

这些众多分析师与相关人员--

should they have spent on that?

他们应该把钱花在那方面吗？

No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --

不，他们把钱浪费在这里了。这个怎么样？

it really is quite phenomenal.

真是太复杂了

Everybody has an opinion.

每个人都各抒己见

There's great feedback.

得到的反馈巨大

And the numbers are used to make decisions.

而这些数据对我们做出决策很有帮助

If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --

如果你浏览教育支出和医疗保障支出－－

particularly these long-term trends --

尤其是这些长期的项目－－

you don't have that type of involvement

你会发现，在平等与教育

on a number that's more important

这些更为重要的方面

in terms of equity, in terms of learning.

资金投入不足

So what do we need to do?

我们该怎么做呢？

We need better tools.

我们需要更好的工具

We can get some things out on the Internet.

我们可以求助于互联网

I'm going to use my website

我将利用我的网站

to put up some things that will give the basic picture.

来展示基本的情况

We need lots more.

我们还需要做更多工作

There's a few good books,

这里有一些很有用的书

one about school spending and where the money comes from --

其中有一本与教育支出和教育资金的来源有关－－

how that's changed over time, and the challenge.

随时间的发展，它如何变化，以及所面临的挑战

We need better accounting.

我们需要更好地完成会计工作

We need to take the fact

我们必须认识到

that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,

我们应在当前的预算中

that should come out of the current budget.

涵盖未来将用于目前在职员工身上的支出

We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting

我们必须明白他们为何以现在这样方式

the way they have.

计算养老金

It should be more like private accounting.

这应该更像是私人会计服务

It's the gold standard.

这是黄金法则

And finally, we need to really reward politicians.

最后，我们需要好好奖励政治家

Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,

如果他们说存在长期性问题

we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?

我们不能说：“你是乌鸦嘴吗？

We just shot you."

我们一枪毙了你。”

In fact, there are some like these:

事实上，下面这几位：

Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,

厄斯金·鲍尔斯，阿兰·辛普森以及其他几位

who have gone through and given proposals

他们都为州一级的

for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.

联邦医疗总支出出谋划策

But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.

而实际上，他们的工作并没有取得成效

In fact, the week afterwards,

事实上，就在上一周

some tax cuts were done

他们削减了税收

that made the situation even worse

让情况更加恶化

than their assumptions.

这超出了他们的预期

So we need these pieces.

我们需要继续做这些工作

Now I think this is a solvable problem.

我认为这是可以得到解决的

It's a great country with lots of people.

这是一个人口众多的大国

But we have to draw those people in,

我们必须吸引人们的注意力

because this is about education.

因为这事关教育大计

And just look at what happened with the tuitions

看看加利福尼亚大学

with the University of California

学费的变化

and project that out for another three, four, five years --

以及未来三年，四年，五年里将进行的项目

it's unaffordable.

我们没有足够的资金

And that's the kind of thing --

这可是

the investment in the young --

对年轻一代的投资--

that makes us great, allows us to contribute.

这是一项伟大的事业，也是我们贡献力量的机会

It allows us to do the art,

这让我们能够成就艺术

the biotechnology, the software

生物技术，软件技术

and all those magic things.

以及其它妙不可言的事业

And so the bottom line is

因此，最重要的是

we need to care about state budgets

我们必须关注州预算

because they're critical for our kids and our future.

因为这对我们的孩子，我们的未来至关重要

Thank you.

感谢各位

(Applause)

（众人鼓掌）