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譯者: Kung-Ming Lin
審譯者: Chih-Yuan Huang
00:15
Well, this is about state budgets.
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這是有關州預算的演講
00:17
This is probably the most boring topic
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這大概是整個早上
00:20
of the whole morning.
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最枯燥乏味的講題
00:22
But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic
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但是我想告訴你,我認為這是我們必需關心的
00:25
that we need to care about.
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重要課題
00:28
State budgets
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州預算
00:30
are big, big money --
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有非常、非常多錢
00:33
I'll show you the numbers --
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我等一下會告訴你們有多少錢
00:35
and they get very little scrutiny.
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而且它們幾乎不受審查
00:38
The understanding is very low.
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很少人瞭解它
00:41
Many of the people involved
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大部分提出與審查預算的人
00:43
have special interests or short-term interests
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只關注特定或短期的利益
00:45
that get them not thinking
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讓他們不會考慮
00:47
about what the implications of the trends are.
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長期趨勢所暗示的警訊
00:51
And these budgets
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而這些預算
00:53
are the key for our future;
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卻是我們未來的關鍵
00:55
they're the key for our kids.
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是我們孩子的關鍵
00:57
Most education funding --
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大多數的教育經費
00:59
whether it's K through 12,
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無論是幼稚園到小學
01:01
or the great universities or community colleges --
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還是大學、社區大學
01:04
most of the money for those things
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這些學校大部分的資金
01:06
is coming out of these state budgets.
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都來自州預算
01:09
But we have a problem.
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但是我們有個問題
01:11
Here's the overall picture.
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這是美國全部的預算圖
01:13
U.S. economy is big --
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美國的經濟很龐大
01:16
14.7 trillion.
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(國內生產總值)十四萬七千億美元
01:18
Now out of that pie,
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在整個大餅之中
01:20
the government spends 36 percent.
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政府支出佔了百分之三十六
01:23
So this is combining the federal level,
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其中聯邦預算
01:25
which is the largest,
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佔得最多
01:27
the state level and the local level.
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其餘是州預算與地方預算
01:29
And it's really in this combined way
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如此錯綜複雜
01:31
that you get an overall sense of what's going on,
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就是你感受到目前的整體狀況
01:33
because there's a lot of complex things
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因為裡面有太多複雜的項目
01:35
like Medicaid and research money
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例如健保與研究支出
01:37
that flow across those boundaries.
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同時在三者之間編列
01:40
But we're spending 36 percent.
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但是我們確實支出百分之三十六
01:42
Well what are we taking in?
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好,我們到底付了多少?
01:44
Simple business question.
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基本的商業問題
01:46
Answer is 26 percent.
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答案是百分之二十六
01:50
Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,
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中間有百分之十的赤字
01:55
sort of a mind-blowing number.
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是個令人震驚的數字
01:58
And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact
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其中一部分赤字,實際上,是因為
02:01
that we've had an economic recession.
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我們正處於經濟不景氣
02:03
Receipts go down,
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收入減少
02:05
some spending programs go up,
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某些支出計畫增加
02:07
but most of it is not because of that.
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但這不是大多數赤字的原因
02:10
Most of it is because of ways
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大多數赤字來自於
02:12
that the liabilities are building up
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負債一直累積
02:14
and the trends,
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以及趨勢如此
02:16
and that creates a huge challenge.
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讓我們面臨巨大的挑戰
02:19
In fact, this is the forecast picture.
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事實上,這個預測圖
02:22
There are various things in here:
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裡面有幾個項目
02:24
I could say we might raise more revenue,
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我可以說,我們可以提高收入
02:26
or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.
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或讓醫療創新使得支出更為增加
02:30
It is an increasingly difficult picture,
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讓前景看來日益困難
02:33
even assuming the economy does quite well --
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即使假設經濟景氣不錯
02:36
probably better than it will do.
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比預期得更好
02:39
This is what you see
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這是你會看到的
02:41
at this overall level.
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全體數字
02:43
Now how did we get here?
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我們怎麼會變成這樣?
02:45
How could you have a problem like this?
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怎麼會有這種麻煩?
02:48
After all, at least on paper,
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總之,至少在帳面上
02:51
there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.
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有這種概念說這些州預算經過平衡
02:54
Only one state says
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只有一個州說
02:56
they don't have to balance the budget.
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他們不必平衡預算
02:58
But what this means actually
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這實際上表示
03:00
is that there's a pretense.
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平衡預算都只是藉口
03:02
There's no real, true balancing going on,
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他們根本沒有達成真正的平衡
03:05
and in a sense, the games they play to hide that
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以某方面來說,他們在玩的把戲是隱藏赤字
03:09
actually obscure the topic so much
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實際上更加模糊了問題所在
03:11
that people don't see things
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讓別人無法發覺
03:13
that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.
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這就是目前非常直接的挑戰
03:17
When Jerry Brown was elected,
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當傑利.布朗選上(加州州長)
03:19
this was the challenge that was put to him.
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這就是他要面對的挑戰
03:21
That is, through various gimmicks and things,
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那就是藉由種種的花招與方法
03:24
a so-called balanced budget
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所謂的平衡預算
03:27
had led him to have 25 billion missing
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讓加州提出的七百六十億預算支出
03:31
out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.
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消失了二百五十億
03:34
Now he's put together some thoughts:
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他總結下來有幾個想法:
03:36
About half of that he'll cut,
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他會砍掉其中一半
03:39
another half,
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另一半
03:41
perhaps in a very complex set of steps,
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也許藉由十分複雜的手段
03:43
taxes will be approved.
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以加稅的方法補足
03:45
But even so,
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即使如此
03:47
as you go out into those future years,
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當你面對未來幾年
03:50
various pension costs, health costs go up enough,
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各種退休金支出、醫療支出持續增加
03:53
and the revenue does not go up enough.
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但是收入卻沒有追上支出
03:56
So you get a big squeeze.
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你就必須大幅壓縮預算
03:58
What were those things that allowed us to hide this?
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為什麼我們可以隱藏這些問題?
04:01
Well, some really nice little tricks.
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好,有一些十分巧妙的技倆
04:04
And these were somewhat noticed.
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這些是讓人稍微注意到的
04:06
The paper said, "It's not really balanced.
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報紙上寫著「並非全部平衡」
04:08
It's got holes.
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「有財務漏洞」
04:10
It perpetuates deficit spending.
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「延續赤字支出」
04:12
It's riddled with gimmicks."
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「充滿了花招」
04:15
And really when you get down to it,
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當你真正深入調查的時候
04:18
the guys at Enron never would have done this.
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會發現安隆的傢伙從來沒作過這種蠢事
04:21
This is so blatant,
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(各州政府)實在明目張膽
04:23
so extreme.
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實在罪大惡極
04:26
Is anyone paying attention
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難道沒有人注意到
04:28
to some of the things these guys do?
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這些傢伙所作的事情?
04:31
They borrow money.
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他們借錢
04:33
They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.
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他們不該借錢,但是他們找到了方法
04:35
They make you pay more in withholding
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他們強迫你繳交更多的預扣稅金
04:37
just to help their cash flow out.
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只是為了讓他們有現金可用
04:39
They sell off the assets.
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他們出售資產
04:41
They defer the payments.
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他們拒絕付錢
04:44
They sell off the revenues from tobacco.
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他們販賣來自香菸的收益
04:46
And California's not unique.
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加州不是特例
04:48
In fact, there's about five states that are worse
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事實上,大概有五個州的狀況更惡劣
04:50
and only really four states
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只有四個州
04:52
that don't face this big challenge.
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不必面對這麼大的挑戰
04:54
So it's systemic across the entire country.
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所以這是充斥整個美國的現象
04:57
It really comes from the fact
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它來自於這個事實
04:59
that certain long-term obligations --
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相當多的長期債務——
05:01
health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,
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科技創新讓健保日益昂貴
05:04
early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,
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提早退休與退休金,人口老化讓問題更加嚴重
05:07
and just generosity --
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正因為寬容——
05:09
that these mis-accounting things
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讓這些不正當的會計手段
05:11
allow to develop over time,
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長期持續下去
05:13
that you've got a problem.
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讓你面對棘手的問題
05:16
This is the retiree health care benefits.
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這是退休人員健保的利益
05:18
Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --
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三百萬人,六百二十億美元的債務
05:21
much worse than the car companies.
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比汽車公司還糟糕
05:23
And everybody looked at that
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每個看到的人
05:25
and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.
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都知道這會如同滾雪球一般變成巨大的問題
05:28
The forecast for the medical piece alone
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光看醫療方面的預測
05:30
is to go from 26 percent of the budget
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將會從百分之二十六的預算
05:32
to 42 percent.
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增加到百分之四十二
05:34
Well what's going to give?
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誰來付錢?
05:36
Well in order to accommodate that,
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為了應付這些債務
05:38
you would have to cut education spending in half.
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你必須削減一半的教育支出
05:42
It really is this young versus the old
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以某種程度來說
05:44
to some degree.
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這真的是年輕人與老人的戰爭
05:46
If you don't change that revenue picture,
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如果你的收入不變
05:49
if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,
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如果你無法改變健保
05:51
you're going to be deinvesting in the young.
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你就會剝奪年輕人
05:54
The great University of California university system,
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加州的大學系統
05:57
the great things that have gone on,
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一直是優良學校
05:59
won't happen.
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以後不會再持續下去
06:01
So far it's meant layoffs,
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目前是裁減師資
06:03
increased class sizes.
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增加每班學生人數
06:05
Within the education community there's this discussion of,
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在教育圈子裡面討論的是:
06:08
"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,
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「我們應該裁掉年輕的老師
06:10
or the less good teachers who get laid off?"
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還是表現較差的老師?」
06:12
And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,
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裡面也有討論:「如果增加班級人數
06:15
where do you do that? How much effect does that have?
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要增加在哪裡?會有什麼影響?」
06:18
And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,
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不幸的是,當你掉進陷阱,就會困惑然後想:
06:21
well maybe you think that's okay.
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「好吧,我想我可以接受」
06:23
In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.
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實際上,不可以,絕對不能削減教育支出
06:26
There's ways, if it's temporary,
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有些方法,如果只是暫時的
06:28
to minimize the impact,
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可以降低影響
06:30
but it's a problem.
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但是它確實是個大問題
06:32
It's also really a problem for where we need to go.
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它也是掌握我們未來方向的問題
06:34
Technology has a role to play.
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科技在其中扮演重要的角色
06:36
Well we need money to experiment with that,
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我們需要資金實驗
06:39
to get those tools in there.
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以研發可用的教育工具
06:41
There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,
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有人想依據教師教學的成效給薪
06:43
measuring them, giving them feedback,
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量化教學成效、給予教師回饋
06:45
taking videos in the classroom.
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在教室拍攝影片
06:47
That's something I think is very, very important.
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我覺得這些事情非常、非常重要
06:49
Well you have to allocate dollars
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你必須花錢
06:51
for that system
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購買這種系統
06:53
and for that incentive pay.
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才能給付獎勵性的薪水
06:55
In a situation where you have growth,
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經濟成長的狀況下
06:57
you put the new money into this.
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你可以把多的收入花費在這裡
06:59
Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.
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即使你經濟持平,你也可以挪一些錢過去
07:01
But with the type of cuts we're talking about,
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但現在是我們之前所講的惡劣情況
07:03
it will be far, far harder
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就會變得非常、非常困難
07:05
to get these incentives for excellence,
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難以撥出這些獎勵金給優秀教師
07:07
or to move over
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或是難以改變方式
07:09
to use technology in the new way.
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運用科技提昇教育
07:12
So what's going on?
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所以現在到底是什麼狀況?
07:14
Where's the brain trust
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智囊團在哪裡
07:16
that's in error here?
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哪裡就會出錯
07:18
Well there really is no brain trust.
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好吧,根本沒有智囊團
07:21
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:23
It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.
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這算是投票者的義務,也算是我們該挺身而出的時候
07:27
Just look at this spending.
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看看這些支出
07:29
California will spend over 100 billion,
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加州支出超過一千億美元
07:31
Microsoft, 38,
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微軟,三百八十億
07:33
Google, about 19.
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Google,大約一百九十億
07:35
The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,
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這些是 Google 與微軟裡面
07:38
both inside Google and Microsoft
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擅長數學分析的智商總和
07:40
and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --
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出了這兩家公司,有一堆分析師與各式各樣意見的人——
07:43
should they have spent on that?
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他們該花那筆錢嗎?
07:45
No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --
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不,他們在浪費錢。這個如何?——
07:47
it really is quite phenomenal.
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這真是了不起
07:50
Everybody has an opinion.
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每個人都有意見
07:52
There's great feedback.
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有大量的回饋意見
07:55
And the numbers are used to make decisions.
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意見的數量用來作出決策
07:58
If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --
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如果你查看教育支出與健保支出——
08:01
particularly these long-term trends --
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尤其是長期趨勢——
08:04
you don't have that type of involvement
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你不需要瞭解這些數字
08:06
on a number that's more important
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就知道公平與學習
08:08
in terms of equity, in terms of learning.
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才是最重要的事
08:11
So what do we need to do?
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所以我們需要作什麼?
08:13
We need better tools.
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我們需要更好的工具(提醒大眾)
08:15
We can get some things out on the Internet.
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我們可以靠網際網路作到一些
08:17
I'm going to use my website
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我會運用我的網站
08:19
to put up some things that will give the basic picture.
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發布一些資料,讓人瞭解一些基本概念
08:21
We need lots more.
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我們還需要更多
08:23
There's a few good books,
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有幾本好書
08:25
one about school spending and where the money comes from --
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有一本關於學校支出與財源——
08:27
how that's changed over time, and the challenge.
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收支如何隨時間變化,以及面臨的挑戰
08:30
We need better accounting.
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我們需要更好的會計方法
08:32
We need to take the fact
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我們需要承認事實
08:34
that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,
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現在的員工,他們製造未來的債務
08:36
that should come out of the current budget.
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都是從現在的預算中支付
08:39
We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting
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我們需要瞭解為什麼他們對退休金的會計數字
08:41
the way they have.
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作了這些手腳
08:43
It should be more like private accounting.
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政府會計應該要如同私人會計
08:45
It's the gold standard.
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有著嚴格的標準
08:47
And finally, we need to really reward politicians.
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最後,我們需要以實際行動獎勵政治家
08:50
Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,
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當他們說有長期的問題存在
08:52
we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?
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我們不能回答:「喔,所以你只是個烏鴉嘴?
08:54
We just shot you."
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去死吧」
08:57
In fact, there are some like these:
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事實上,有些人就是那樣子
08:59
Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,
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厄斯金.包爾、艾藍、辛普森與其他人
09:01
who have gone through and given proposals
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他們進行調查並提出方案
09:04
for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.
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處理全聯邦普遍存在健保支出於州層級問題
09:08
But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.
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但是實際上,他們的方案被延後
09:10
In fact, the week afterwards,
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事實上,方案提出之後幾個星期
09:13
some tax cuts were done
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通過了一些減稅法案
09:15
that made the situation even worse
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導致情況比他們預想的
09:17
than their assumptions.
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更加惡化
09:19
So we need these pieces.
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所以我們需要之前提過的東西
09:21
Now I think this is a solvable problem.
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目前我認為這是可以解決的問題
09:24
It's a great country with lots of people.
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美國是人口眾多的大國
09:27
But we have to draw those people in,
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但是我們必須同心協力
09:31
because this is about education.
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因為這是有關教育的問題
09:33
And just look at what happened with the tuitions
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只要看看加州大學
09:35
with the University of California
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學費的問題
09:37
and project that out for another three, four, five years --
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向外推測三、四、五年之後上漲的學費
09:40
it's unaffordable.
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年輕人將會讀不起大學
09:43
And that's the kind of thing --
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教育是一種——
09:45
the investment in the young --
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對於年輕人的投資——
09:47
that makes us great, allows us to contribute.
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使我們(美國人)偉大、讓我們貢獻心力
09:49
It allows us to do the art,
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它讓我們成就藝術
09:51
the biotechnology, the software
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發展生物科技、研發軟體
09:54
and all those magic things.
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作出許多神奇的事物
09:57
And so the bottom line is
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所以重點是
09:59
we need to care about state budgets
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我們必須關心州預算
10:02
because they're critical for our kids and our future.
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因為它是我們孩子與我們未來的關鍵
10:04
Thank you.
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謝謝各位
10:06
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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