The pattern behind self-deception | Michael Shermer

Prevodilac: Tamara Jovanović Lektor: Jelena Nedjic

So since I was here last in '06,

Od kada sam poslednji put bio ovde 2006.,

we discovered that global climate change

otkrili smo da je promena globalne klime

is turning out to be a pretty serious issue,

prerasla u prilično ozbiljan problem,

so we covered that fairly extensively

tako da smo pisali opsežno o tome

in Skeptic magazine.

u časopisu "Skeptic".

We investigate all kinds

Istražujemo sve tipove

of scientific and quasi-scientific controversies,

naučnih i kvazi-naučnih kontroverzi,

but it turns out we don't have to worry about any of this

ali ispostavilo se da ne moramo da brinemo ni oko čega,

because the world's going to end in 2012.

jer će 2012. godine biti smak sveta.

Another update:

Još jedno obaveštenje:

You will recall I introduced you guys

sećate se da sam vam predstavio

to the Quadro Tracker.

"Quadro Tracker".

It's like a water dowsing device.

Podseća na rašlje za traženje vode.

It's just a hollow piece of plastic with an antenna that swivels around.

To je samo prazno parče plastike sa antenom koja se okreće.

And you walk around, and it points to things.

Hodate naokolo i usmeravate je ka stvarima.

Like if you're looking for marijuana in students' lockers,

Kao da tražite marihuanu u ormarićima učenika,

it'll point right to somebody.

pokazaće pravo na nekog.

Oh, sorry. (Laughter)

O, izvinite. (Smeh)

This particular one that was given to me

Konkretno ovaj koji mi je poklonjen,

finds golf balls,

pronalazi loptice za golf,

especially if you're at a golf course

naročito ako ste na terenu za golf

and you check under enough bushes.

i proverite ispod dovoljno žbunova.

Well, under the category of "What's the harm of silly stuff like this?"

Pa, u kategoriju "Kakvu štetu mogu naneti ove blesave stvarčice?"

this device, the ADE 651,

spada ovaj uređaj, ADE 651,

was sold to the Iraqi government

koji je prodat iračkoj vladi

for 40,000 dollars apiece.

za 40 000 dolara po uređaju.

It's just like this one, completely worthless,

Poput ovog ovde je, potpuno beskoristan,

in which it allegedly worked by "electrostatic

navodno ga pokreće "elektrostatična

magnetic ion attraction,"

magnetna jonska privlačnost",

which translates to

što znači

"pseudoscientific baloney" -- would be the nice word --

"pseudo-naučna budalaština" -- bila bi to odgovarajuća reč --

in which you string together a bunch of words that sound good,

natrpate u nazivu gomilu zvučnih reči,

but it does absolutely nothing.

ali sam uređaj nema nikakvu funkciju.

In this case, at trespass points,

U ovom slučaju, na tačkama prelaska,

allowing people to go through

omogućava ljudima da prođu,

because your little tracker device said they were okay,

jer je vaš mali uređaj za praćenje rekao da su okej,

actually cost lives.

što je zapravo koštalo života.

So there is a danger to pseudoscience,

Tako da postoji opasnost u pseudo-nauci,

in believing in this sort of thing.

u verovanju u ovakve stvari.

So what I want to talk about today is belief.

Ono o čemo želim danas da govorim je verovanje.

I want to believe,

Želim da verujem,

and you do too.

kao i vi.

And in fact, I think my thesis here is that

Zapravo, ja stojim iza stava

belief is the natural state of things.

da je verovanje prirodno stanje stvari.

It is the default option. We just believe.

To se podrazumeva. Jednostavno verujemo.

We believe all sorts of things.

Verujemo u svakakve stvari.

Belief is natural;

Verovanje je prirodno;

disbelief, skepticism, science, is not natural.

neverovanje, skepticizam, nauka, nisu prirodni.

It's more difficult.

Teži su.

It's uncomfortable to not believe things.

Neugodnije je ne verovati u stvari.

So like Fox Mulder on "X-Files,"

Recimo, u stilu Foksa Moldera (Fox Mulder) u "Dosijeu Iks",

who wants to believe in UFOs? Well, we all do,

ko želi da veruje u NLO-e? Pa, svi mi to želimo,

and the reason for that is because

a razlog je to što

we have a belief engine in our brains.

imamo mehanizam za verovanje u mozgu.

Essentially, we are pattern-seeking primates.

U suštini, mi smo primati koji traže šeme.

We connect the dots: A is connected to B; B is connected to C.

Povezujemo tačke: A je povezano sa B; B je povezano sa C.

And sometimes A really is connected to B,

Ponekad je A zaista povezano sa B,

and that's called association learning.

i to se zove asocijativno učenje.

We find patterns, we make those connections,

Nalazimo šeme, uspostavljamo veze,

whether it's Pavlov's dog here

bez obzira da li je to Pavlovljev pas

associating the sound of the bell with the food,

koji povezuje zvuk zvona sa hranom

and then he salivates to the sound of the bell,

i onda luči pljuvačku na zvuk zvona,

or whether it's a Skinnerian rat,

ili Skinerov pacov,

in which he's having an association

koji je utvrdio vezu

between his behavior and a reward for it,

između svog ponašanja i nagrade,

and therefore he repeats the behavior.

pa zato ponavlja ponašanje.

In fact, what Skinner discovered

Zapravo, ono što je Skiner otkrio

is that, if you put a pigeon in a box like this,

je da, ako stavite goluba u ovakvu kutiju

and he has to press one of these two keys,

i on mora da pritisne jedan od ova dva tastera,

and he tries to figure out what the pattern is,

pokušava da otkrije šemu

and you give him a little reward in the hopper box there --

za dobijanje male nagrade u toj kutiji --

if you just randomly assign rewards

a vi samo nasumično dodeljujete nagrade,

such that there is no pattern,

tako da ne postoji šema,

they will figure out any kind of pattern.

otkriće bilo kakvu šemu.

And whatever they were doing just before they got the reward,

Šta god da su radili pre dobijanja nagrade,

they repeat that particular pattern.

ponavljali bi tu određenu šemu.

Sometimes it was even spinning around twice counterclockwise,

Ponekad se golub okretao dvaput u smeru suprotnom od kazaljke na satu,

once clockwise and peck the key twice.

jednom u smeru kazaljke i kljucnuo taster dvaput.

And that's called superstition,

To se zove sujeverje,

and that, I'm afraid,

to je, bojim se,

we will always have with us.

nešto što ćemo uvek imati u sebi.

I call this process "patternicity" --

Zovem ovaj proces "stvaranje šema" --

that is, the tendency to find meaningful patterns

to jest, skolonost ka pronalaženju smislenih obrazaca

in both meaningful and meaningless noise.

kako u logičnom, tako i u nelogičnom skupu.

When we do this process, we make two types of errors.

U toku ovog procesa, pravimo dve vrste grešaka.

A Type I error, or false positive,

Greška prvog tipa ili lažni pozitiv

is believing a pattern is real

je verovanje da je šema stvarna,

when it's not.

kada zapravo nije.

Our second type of error is a false negative.

Drugi tip greške je lažni negativ.

A Type II error is not believing

Greška drugog tipa je verovanje

a pattern is real when it is.

da obrazac nije stvaran, kada to jeste.

So let's do a thought experiment.

Hajde da napravimo misaoni eksperiment.

You are a hominid three million years ago

Vi ste hominid od pre tri miliona godina,

walking on the plains of Africa.

koji šeta afričkom ravnicom.

Your name is Lucy, okay?

Zovete se Lusi, okej?

And you hear a rustle in the grass.

Čujete šuškanje u travi.

Is it a dangerous predator,

Da li je to opasan grabljivac

or is it just the wind?

ili samo vetar?

Your next decision could be the most important one of your life.

Sledeća odluka koju napravite može biti najznačajnija u životu.

Well, if you think that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator

Ako mislite da je šuškanje poteklo od grabljivca,

and it turns out it's just the wind,

a ispostavi se da je samo vetar,

you've made an error in cognition,

napravili ste kognitivnu grešku,

made a Type I error, false positive.

grešku prvog tipa, lažni pozitiv.

But no harm. You just move away.

Ali sve je u redu. Nastavljate dalje.

You're more cautious. You're more vigilant.

Obazriviji ste. Budniji.

On the other hand, if you believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind,

Sa druge strane, ako verujete da je to šuškanje samo vetar,

and it turns out it's a dangerous predator,

a ispostavi se da je grabljivac,

you're lunch.

postaćete ručak.

You've just won a Darwin award.

Upravo ste osvojili Darvinovu nagradu.

You've been taken out of the gene pool.

Uklonjeni ste iz genetskog fonda.

Now the problem here is that

Problem je u tome što

patternicities will occur whenever the cost

se do stvaranja šema dolazi svaki put

of making a Type I error

kada je šteta od greške prvog tipa

is less than the cost of making a Type II error.

manja od pravljenja greške drugog tipa.

This is the only equation in the talk by the way.

Uzged, ovo je jedina jednačina u ovom govoru.

We have a pattern detection problem

Imamo problem u opažanju šema,

that is assessing the difference between a Type I and a Type II error

to jest, procenjivanje razlike između greške prvog i drugog tipa

is highly problematic,

je veoma problematično,

especially in split-second, life-and-death situations.

naročito u situacijama kada je život ugrožen, koje traju delić sekunde.

So the default position

Zato, podrazumevani stav

is just: Believe all patterns are real --

je jednostavno: Verujte da su svi obrasci stvarni --

All rustles in the grass are dangerous predators

Svako šuškanje u travi je opasni grabljivac,

and not just the wind.

a ne samo vetar.

And so I think that we evolved ...

Zato mislim da smo evoluirali...

there was a natural selection for the propensity for our belief engines,

postojala je prirodna selekcija za razvijanje mehanizama verovanja,

our pattern-seeking brain processes,

za moždanim procesima koji omogućavaju traženje šema,

to always find meaningful patterns

da uvek pronađemo smislene šeme

and infuse them with these sort of

i pripišemo im ova

predatory or intentional agencies that I'll come back to.

predatorska ili namerna svojstva o kojima ću pričati kasnije.

So for example, what do you see here?

Pa, na primer, šta vidite ovde?

It's a horse head, that's right.

To je glava konja, tako je.

It looks like a horse. It must be a horse.

Izgleda kao konj. Mora da je konj.

That's a pattern.

To je šema.

And is it really a horse?

A da li je to stvarno konj?

Or is it more like a frog?

Ili je više nalik žabi?

See, our pattern detection device,

Vidite, naš uređaj za traženje šema,

which appears to be located in the anterior cingulate cortex --

koji je izgleda smešten u prednjem limbusu --

it's our little detection device there --

to je naš mali uređaj za opažanje --

can be easily fooled, and this is the problem.

može se lako zavarati i to je problem.

For example, what do you see here?

Na primer, šta vidite ovde?

Yes, of course, it's a cow.

Da, naravno, to je krava.

Once I prime the brain -- it's called cognitive priming --

Kada pripremim mozak -- to se zove kognitivna priprema --

once I prime the brain to see it,

kada pripremim mozak da to vidi,

it pops back out again even without the pattern that I've imposed on it.

slika se opet vraća, čak i bez šeme koju sam joj namenio.

And what do you see here?

A šta vidite ovde?

Some people see a Dalmatian dog.

Neki ljudi vide dalmatinca.

Yes, there it is. And there's the prime.

Da, evo ga. Evo i pripreme za sliku.

So when I go back without the prime,

Kada se vratim bez pripreme,

your brain already has the model

vaš mozak već ima model,

so you can see it again.

pa ga možete videti opet.

What do you see here?

Šta vidite ovde?

Planet Saturn. Yes, that's good.

Planetu Saturn. Da, to je dobro.

How about here?

A ovde?

Just shout out anything you see.

Samo uzviknite šta god da vidite.

That's a good audience, Chris.

To je sjajna publika, Kris.

Because there's nothing in this. Well, allegedly there's nothing.

Jer ovde nema ničeg. Pa, navodno, nema ničeg.

This is an experiment done by Jennifer Whitson

Ovo je eksperiment Dženifer Vitson (Jennifer Whitson)

at U.T. Austin

sa Teksaškog Univerziteta u Ostinu,

on corporate environments

o korporativnom okruženju

and whether feelings of uncertainty and out of control

i povezanosti osećanja nesigurnosti i manjka kontrole

makes people see illusory patterns.

sa stvaranjem imaginarnih šema.

That is, almost everybody sees the planet Saturn.

Zapravo, skoro svako vidi Saturn.

People that are put in a condition of feeling out of control

Ljudi koji su u uslovima kada osećaju manjak kontrole

are more likely to see something in this,

imaju veće šanse da vide nešto u ovome,

which is allegedly patternless.

gde navodno nema šema.

In other words, the propensity to find these patterns

Drugim rečima, sklonost ka nalaženju ovih šema

goes up when there's a lack of control.

povećava se kada se gubi kontrola.

For example, baseball players are notoriously superstitious

Na primer, igrači bejzbola su čuveni po svom sujeverju

when they're batting,

kada udaraju lopticu,

but not so much when they're fielding.

ali ne toliko kada igraju odbranu.

Because fielders are successful

Zato što su igrači odbrane uspešni

90 to 95 percent of the time.

90 do 95 odsto vremena.

The best batters fail seven out of 10 times.

Najbolji udarači uspevaju 3 od 10 puta.

So their superstitions, their patternicities,

Tako da je njihovo sujeverje, njihovo stvaranje šema,

are all associated with feelings of lack of control

povezano sa osećanjem nedostatka kontrole

and so forth.

i tako dalje.

What do you see in this particular one here, in this field?

Šta vidite baš ovde, u ovom polju?

Anybody see an object there?

Da li neko ovde vidi predmet?

There actually is something here,

Zapravo, ima nečeg ovde,

but it's degraded.

ali je slika uništena.

While you're thinking about that,

Dok razmišljate o tome,

this was an experiment done by Susan Blackmore,

ovo je eksperiment Suzan Blekmur (Susan Blackmore),

a psychologist in England,

psihologa iz Engleske,

who showed subjects this degraded image

koja je učesnicima eksperimenta pokazivala ovu uništenu sliku

and then ran a correlation between

i potom određivala korelaciju između

their scores on an ESP test:

njihovih rezultata na ESP testu:

How much did they believe in the paranormal,

Koliko veruju u paranormalno,

supernatural, angels and so forth.

natprirodno, anđele i tako dalje.

And those who scored high on the ESP scale,

Oni koji su imali najbolje rezultate na ESP testu

tended to not only see

ne samo da su uočavali

more patterns in the degraded images

više šema u uništenim slikama,

but incorrect patterns.

već i netačne šeme.

Here is what you show subjects.

Ovo se pokazuje učesnicima eksperimenta.

The fish is degraded 20 percent, 50 percent

Ova riba je uništena 20%, 50%,

and then the one I showed you,

a ova koju sam vam pokazao,

70 percent.

70 odsto.

A similar experiment was done by another [Swiss] psychologist

Sličan ogled je sproveo još jedan britanski psiholog,

named Peter Brugger,

Piter Bruger (Peter Brugger),

who found significantly more meaningful patterns

koji je pronašao da je znatno više smislenih šema

were perceived on the right hemisphere,

opaženo u desnoj hemisferi,

via the left visual field, than the left hemisphere.

putem levog vidnog polja, nego u levoj hemisferi.

So if you present subjects the images such

Tako da ako učesnicima pokažete takve slike

that it's going to end up on the right hemisphere instead of the left,

koje će završiti u desnoj hemisferi, umesto u levoj,

then they're more likely to see patterns

veća je verovatnoća da će se opaziti šeme,

than if you put it on the left hemisphere.

nego kada se obrada vrši u levoj hemisferi.

Our right hemisphere appears to be

Čini se da se u našoj desnoj hemisferi

where a lot of this patternicity occurs.

stvara najviše šema.

So what we're trying to do is bore into the brain

Ono što pokušavamo da uradimo je da uđemo duboko u mozak,

to see where all this happens.

da bismo videli gde se sve to dešava.

Brugger and his colleague, Christine Mohr,

Bruger i njegova koleginica, Kristine Mor (Christine Mohr),

gave subjects L-DOPA.

su davali učesnicima L-DOPA.

L-DOPA's a drug, as you know, given for treating Parkinson's disease,

L-DOPA se koristi, kao što znate, za lečenje Parkinsonove bolesti,

which is related to a decrease in dopamine.

koja je povezana sa padom u nivou dopamina.

L-DOPA increases dopamine.

L-DOPA povećava nivo dopamina.

An increase of dopamine caused

Rast nivoa dopamina izazvao je

subjects to see more patterns

uočavanje većeg broja šema,

than those that did not receive the dopamine.

u odnosu na tretman bez dopamina.

So dopamine appears to be the drug

Čini se da je dopamin jedinjenje

associated with patternicity.

koje je povezano sa stvaranjem šema.

In fact, neuroleptic drugs

Zapravo, antipsihotici,

that are used to eliminate psychotic behavior,

koji se koriste za lečenje psihoza,

things like paranoia, delusions

poput paranoje, diluzija

and hallucinations,

i halucinacija,

these are patternicities.

ovo su poremećaji čestog stvaranja šema.

They're incorrect patterns. They're false positives. They're Type I errors.

To su netačne šeme. To su lažni pozitivi. To su greške prvog tipa.

And if you give them drugs

Ako im date lakove,

that are dopamine antagonists,

koji su dopaminski blokatori,

they go away.

one nestaju.

That is, you decrease the amount of dopamine,

Zapravo, smanjujete nivo dopamina

and their tendency to see

i njihova sklonost da zapaze

patterns like that decreases.

takve šeme se smanjuje.

On the other hand, amphetamines like cocaine

Sa druge strane, amfetamini poput kokaina

are dopamine agonists.

su stimulansi dopamina.

They increase the amount of dopamine.

Povećavaju nivo dopamina.

So you're more likely to feel in a euphoric state,

Samim tim je veća verovatnoća da ćete osećati euforiju,

creativity, find more patterns.

biti kreativniji, naći više šema.

In fact, I saw Robin Williams recently

Ustvari, nedavno sam slušao Robina Vilijamsa (Robin Williams)

talk about how he thought he was much funnier

kako govori o tome da misli da je bio mnogo duhovitiji

when he was doing cocaine, when he had that issue, than now.

kada je konzumirao kokain, kada je imao taj problem, nego sada.

So perhaps more dopamine

Verovatno dopamin

is related to more creativity.

utiče na kreativnost.

Dopamine, I think, changes

Mislim da dopamin menja

our signal-to-noise ratio.

našu percepciju odnosa signal/šum.

That is, how accurate we are

To jest, našu preciznost

in finding patterns.

u nalaženju šema.

If it's too low, you're more likely to make too many Type II errors.

Ako ga ima malo, verovatno ćete načiniti više grešaka drugog tipa.

You miss the real patterns. You don't want to be too skeptical.

Ne vidite prave šeme. Ne želite da budete isuviše skeptični.

If you're too skeptical, you'll miss the really interesting good ideas.

Ako ste isuviše skeptični, propustićete baš interesantne,dobre ideje.

Just right, you're creative, and yet you don't fall for too much baloney.

Normalan nivo dopamina, kreativni ste, a opet, nećete poverovati u svašta.

Too high and maybe you see patterns everywhere.

Previsok nivo i možda ćete videti šeme svuda.

Every time somebody looks at you, you think people are staring at you.

Svaki put kada vas neko pogleda, mislite da ljudi zure u vas.

You think people are talking about you.

Mislite da ljudi govore o vama.

And if you go too far on that, that's just simply

Ako odete predaleko, to se jednostavno

labeled as madness.

naziva ludilom.

It's a distinction perhaps we might make

To je razlika koju možda možemo uočiti

between two Nobel laureates, Richard Feynman

između dvojice Nobelovaca, Ričarda Fejnmana (Richard Feynman)

and John Nash.

i Džona Neša (John Nash).

One sees maybe just the right number

Jedan možda zapaža baš pravi broj

of patterns to win a Nobel Prize.

šema potrebnih za osvajanje Nobelove nagrade.

The other one also, but maybe too many patterns.

Drugi isto tako, ali možda vidi isuviše šema.

And we then call that schizophrenia.

Mi to nazivamo šizofrenijom.

So the signal-to-noise ratio then presents us with a pattern-detection problem.

Zato nam odnos signal/šum skreće pažnju na problem opažanja šema.

And of course you all know exactly

Naravno, svi znate tačno

what this is, right?

šta je ovo, je l' tako?

And what pattern do you see here?

A koju šemu vidite ovde?

Again, I'm putting your anterior cingulate cortex to the test here,

Opet, testiram vaš prednji limbus,

causing you conflicting pattern detections.

izazivam konfliktna opažanja šema.

You know, of course, this is Via Uno shoes.

Znate, naravno, ovo su "Via Uno" cipele.

These are sandals.

Ovo su sandale.

Pretty sexy feet, I must say.

Prilično seksi stopala, moram priznati.

Maybe a little Photoshopped.

Možda malo fotošopirana.

And of course, the ambiguous figures

I naravno, nejasne figure

that seem to flip-flop back and forth.

koje se ređaju jedna za drugom.

It turns out what you're thinking about a lot

Ispostavlja se da ono o čemu mnogo razmišljate

influences what you

utiče na to

tend to see.

što vidite.

And you see the lamp here, I know.

Vidite lampu ovde, znam.

Because the lights on here.

Zbog svetla ovde.

Of course, thanks to the environmentalist movement

Naravno, zahvaljujući pokretu za zaštitu životne sredine,

we're all sensitive to the plight of marine mammals.

svi smo pogođeni patnjama morskih sisara.

So what you see in this particular ambiguous figure

Tako da je ono što vidite u ovom nejasnom obliku

is, of course, the dolphins, right?

naravno, delfin, zar ne?

You see a dolphin here,

Vidite delfina ovde,

and there's a dolphin,

i još jednog

and there's a dolphin.

i još jednog.

That's a dolphin tail there, guys.

Ljudi, ovo ovde je delfinov rep.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

If we can give you conflicting data, again,

Ako vam damo protivrečne podatke, opet,

your ACC is going to be going into hyperdrive.

vaš limbus će raditi punom parom.

If you look down here, it's fine. If you look up here, then you get conflicting data.

Ako pogledate ovde dole, dobro je. Ako pogledate gore, dobijate protivrečne podatke.

And then we have to flip the image

Onda moramo da okrenemo sliku

for you to see that it's a set up.

da biste videli da je ovo nameštaljka.

The impossible crate illusion.

Iluzija nemogućeg sanduka.

It's easy to fool the brain in 2D.

Lako je zavarati mozak u dve dimenzije.

So you say, "Aw, come on Shermer, anybody can do that

Kažete: "Hej, Šermeru, svako može da stvori takvu iluziju

in a Psych 101 text with an illusion like that."

uz pomoć knjige o osnovama psihologije."

Well here's the late, great Jerry Andrus'

Evo nove, sjajne iluzije "nemogućeg sanduka" u 3D-u

"impossible crate" illusion in 3D,

Džerija Endrusa (Jerry Andrus),

in which Jerry is standing inside

u kojoj Džeri stoji

the impossible crate.

u nemogućem sanduku.

And he was kind enough to post this

Bio je dovoljno ljubazan da nam pošalje ovo

and give us the reveal.

i otkrije nam tajnu.

Of course, camera angle is everything. The photographer is over there,

Naravno, sve je u uglu kamere. Fotograf je ovamo

and this board appears to overlap with this one, and this one with that one, and so on.

i ova daska se naizgled preklapa sa onom, i ova sa onom, i tako dalje.

But even when I take it away,

Ali čak i kada to sklonim,

the illusion is so powerful because of how are brains are wired

iluzija je tako moćna zbog načina na koji je naš mozak programiran

to find those certain kinds of patterns.

da nalazi različite šeme.

This is a fairly new one

Ova je relativno nova,

that throws us off because of the conflicting patterns

koja nas potpuno iznenađuje zbog protivrečnih šemi

of comparing this angle with that angle.

poređenja jednog ugla sa drugim.

In fact, it's the exact same picture side by side.

Zapravo, to su potpuno iste slike jedna do druge.

So what you're doing is comparing that angle

Ono što radite je upoređivanje tog ugla,

instead of with this one, but with that one.

sa onim tamo, umesto sa ovim.

And so your brain is fooled.

Tako je vaš mozak zavaran.

Yet again, your pattern detection devices are fooled.

Opet, vaši uređaji za opažanje šema su zavarani.

Faces are easy to see

Lako je videti lica,

because we have an additional evolved

jer nam je evoluirao dodatni

facial recognition software

softver za prepoznavanje lica

in our temporal lobes.

u slepoočnim režnjevima.

Here's some faces on the side of a rock.

Evo nekih lica na padini stene.

I'm actually not even sure if this is -- this might be Photoshopped.

Nisam čak ni siguran oko ovog -- možda je fotošopirano.

But anyway, the point is still made.

Kako god, shvatate moju poentu.

Now which one of these looks odd to you?

Sad, koja od ovih slika vam izgleda čudno?

In a quick reaction, which one looks odd?

Brzo, koja izgleda čudno?

The one on the left. Okay. So I'll rotate it

Ona levo. Okej. Okrenuću je,

so it'll be the one on the right.

pa će biti sa desne strane.

And you are correct.

U pravu ste.

A fairly famous illusion -- it was first done with Margaret Thatcher.

Relativno poznata iluzija -- prvo je to urađeno sa Margaret Tačer (Margaret Thatcher).

Now, they trade up the politicians every time.

Sada, svaki put menjaju političare.

Well, why is this happening?

Pa, zašto se ovo dešava?

Well, we know exactly where it happens,

Znamo tačno gde se to dešava,

in the temporal lobe, right across, sort of above your ear there,

u slepoočnom režnju, odmah ovde, negde iznad uha,

in a little structure called the fusiform gyrus.

u maloj strukturi koja se zove "fusiform gyrus".

And there's two types of cells that do this,

Postoje dva tipa ćelija koje su zadužene za ovo,

that record facial features either globally,

koje pamte crte lica bilo u globalu

or specifically these large, rapid-firing cells,

ili posebno, ove velike ćelije koje brzo reaguju,

first look at the general face.

prvo gledaju lice u celosti.

So you recognize Obama immediately.

Tako odmah prepoznajete Obamu.

And then you notice something quite

Onda primećujete nešto prilično

a little bit odd about the eyes and the mouth.

čudno u vezi sa očima i usnama.

Especially when they're upside down,

Naročito kada su naopačke,

you're engaging that general facial recognition software there.

aktivirate taj softver za opšte prepoznavanje lica.

Now I said back in our little thought experiment,

Spomenuo sam ranije u našem malom misaonom ogledu,

you're a hominid walking on the plains of Africa.

vi ste hominid koji šeta afričkim ravnicama.

Is it just the wind or a dangerous predator?

Da li je to samo vetar ili opasni grabljivac?

What's the difference between those?

U čemu je razlika između njih?

Well, the wind is inanimate;

Pa, vetar je neživ;

the dangerous predator is an intentional agent.

opasni grabljivac ima nameru u svojim postupcima.

And I call this process agenticity.

Ovaj proces nazivam dodeljivanje namere.

That is the tendency to infuse patterns

To je tendencija da se dodeljuju šeme

with meaning, intention and agency,

sa smislom, namerom i delotvornošću,

often invisible beings from the top down.

često nevidljivim bićima najvišeg nivoa.

This is an idea that we got

Ovu ideju sam dobio

from a fellow TEDster here, Dan Dennett,

od Dena Deneta (Dan Dennett), takođe govornika TED-a,

who talked about taking the intentional stance.

koji je govorio o percipiranju namere.

So it's a type of that expanded to explain, I think, a lot of different things:

Mislim da je jedan tip toga proširen da bi objasnio dosta različitih stvari:

souls, spirits, ghosts, gods, demons, angels,

duše, duhove, aveti, bogove, demone, anđele,

aliens, intelligent designers,

vanzemaljce, inteligentne tvorce,

government conspiracists

vladine zaverenike

and all manner of invisible agents

i svakakve nevidljive entitete,

with power and intention, are believed

koji poseduju moć i nameru; veruje se

to haunt our world and control our lives.

da oni opsedaju naš svet i upravljaju našim životima.

I think it's the basis of animism

Mislim da je to osnova animizma,

and polytheism and monotheism.

politeizma i monoteizma.

It's the belief that aliens are somehow

To je verovanje da su vanzemaljci nekako

more advanced than us, more moral than us,

napredniji od nas, moralniji

and the narratives always are

i u pričama se uvek tvrdi

that they're coming here to save us and rescue us from on high.

da će doći sa neba ovde da bi nas sačuvali i spasili.

The intelligent designer's always portrayed

Inteligentni tvorac je uvek prikazan kao

as this super intelligent, moral being

natprosečno inteligentno, moralno biće,

that comes down to design life.

koje silazi dole da bi stvorilo život.

Even the idea that government can rescue us --

Čak je i ideja da nas vlade mogu spasiti --

that's no longer the wave of the future,

to više nije dominantna ideja budućnosti,

but that is, I think, a type of agenticity:

ali to je, mislim, tip dodeljivanja namere:

projecting somebody up there,

zamišljamo nekog tamo gore,

big and powerful, will come rescue us.

velikog i moćnog, ko će doći da nas spase.

And this is also, I think, the basis of conspiracy theories.

Smatram da je to, takođe, u osnovi teorija zavere.

There's somebody hiding behind there pulling the strings,

Neko se krije u pozadini stvari i drži sve konce u rukama,

whether it's the Illuminati

bez obzira da li su to Iluminati

or the Bilderbergers.

ili članovi bilderberške grupe.

But this is a pattern detection problem, isn't it?

Ali, to je problem u opažanju šema, zar ne?

Some patterns are real and some are not.

Neke šeme su stvarne, a druge nisu.

Was JFK assassinated by a conspiracy or by a lone assassin?

Da li su Džona Kenedija (JFK) ubili zaverenici ili jedan atentator?

Well, if you go there -- there's people there on any given day --

Pa, ako ćete se baviti time -- ima ljudi koji o tome razmišljaju svakog dana --

like when I went there, here -- showing me where the different shooters were.

kao kada sam ja bio u toj priči, ovde -- pokazuju mi gde su bili različiti atentatori.

My favorite one was he was in the manhole.

Moja omiljena priča je da je jedan od njih bio u kanalizacionom otvoru.

And he popped out at the last second, took that shot.

U poslednjem trenutku je iskočio i pucao.

But of course, Lincoln was assassinated by a conspiracy.

Ali naravno, Linkolna su ubili zaverenici.

So we can't just uniformly dismiss

Samim tim ne možemo olako da odbacimo

all patterns like that.

šeme te vrste.

Because, let's face it, some patterns are real.

Jer, kao što znate, neke šeme su stvarne.

Some conspiracies really are true.

Neke zavere zaista jesu stvarne.

Explains a lot, maybe.

To možda dosta toga objašnjava.

And 9/11 has a conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy.

I za 11. septembar je vezana teorija zavere. To je zavera.

We did a whole issue on it.

Čitavo jedno izdanje časopisa smo posvetili tome.

Nineteen members of Al Queda plotting to fly planes into buildings

Kada devetnaest članova Al Kaide kuje plan

constitutes a conspiracy.

o udaranju u zgrade avionima, to je zavera.

But that's not what the "9/11 truthers" think.

Ali to nije ono što misle ljudi koji žele da saznaju istinu o 11. septembru.

They think it was an inside job by the Bush administration.

Misle da je to Bušova vlada uradila iza kulisa.

Well, that's a whole other lecture.

Ali, to je tema za drugo predavanje.

You know how we know that 9/11

Znate li kako znamo da 11. septembar

was not orchestrated by the Bush administration?

nije delo Bušove vlade?

Because it worked.

Zato što je uspešno izvedeno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

So we are natural-born dualists.

Mi smo od rođenja dualisti.

Our agenticity process comes from

Naša sklonost dodeljivanju namera jasna je zbog

the fact that we can enjoy movies like these.

činjenice da možemo uživati u gledanju ovakvih filmova.

Because we can imagine, in essence,

Zato što možemo zamisliti, u suštini,

continuing on.

kako će se odvijati dalje.

We know that if you stimulate the temporal lobe,

Znamo da ako stimulišete slepoočni režanj,

you can produce a feeling of out-of-body experiences,

možete izazvati osećaj vantelesnog iskustva,

near-death experiences,

iskustva bliske smrti,

which you can do by just touching an electrode to the temporal lobe there.

samo tako što ćete elektrodu postaviti na slepoočni režanj.

Or you can do it through loss of consciousness,

Ili možete to izazvati i gubitkom svesti,

by accelerating in a centrifuge.

ubrzavanjem u centrifugi.

You get a hypoxia, or a lower oxygen.

Upadate u hipoksiju, smanjen vam je nivo kiseonika u telu.

And the brain then senses

Mozak onda oseća

that there's an out-of-body experience.

vantelesno iskustvo.

You can use -- which I did, went out and did --

Možete upotrebiti -- što sam ja uradio, odvažio se i uradio --

Michael Persinger's God Helmet,

Božanski šlem Majkla Persindžera (Michael Persinger),

that bombards your temporal lobes with electromagnetic waves.

koji bombarduje vaše slepoočne režnjeve elektromagnetnim talasima.

And you get a sense of out-of-body experience.

Dobijete osećaj vantelesnog iskustva.

So I'm going to end here with a short video clip

Završiću ovim kratkim video snimkom,

that sort of brings all this together.

koji nekako sve ovo povezuje.

It's just a minute and a half.

Traje samo minut i po.

It ties together all this into the power of expectation and the power of belief.

Povezuje sve ovo u moć iščekivanja i moć verovanja.

Go ahead and roll it.

Hajde pustite ga.

Narrator: This is the venue they chose for their fake auditions

Narator: Ovo je mesto koje su odabrali za održavanje njihovih lažnih audicija

for an advert for lip balm.

za reklamu za preparat za usta.

Woman: We're hoping we can use part of this

Žena: Nadamo se da ćemo moći da iskoristimo deo ovog

in a national commercial, right?

u nacionalnoj reklami, zar ne?

And this is test on some lip balms

Ovo je test nekih preparata za usne,

that we have over here.

koja imamo ovde.

And these are our models who are going to help us,

Ovo su naši modeli koji će nam pomoći,

Roger and Matt.

Rodžer i Met.

And we have our own lip balm,

Imamo ovde naš preparat za usne,

and we have a leading brand.

a i najprodavaniju marku.

Would you have any problem

Da li ti je problem

kissing our models to test it?

da poljubiš naše modele radi testa?

Girl: No.

Devojka: Nije.

Woman: You wouldn't? (Girl: No.) Woman: You'd think that was fine.

Žena: Sigurno nije? (Devojka: Nije.) Žena: Misliš da je to u redu.

Girl: That would be fine. (Woman: Okay.)

Devojka: To bi bilo u redu. (Žena: Okej.)

So this is a blind test.

Ovo je test naslepo.

I'm going to ask you to go ahead

Zamoliću te

and put a blindfold on.

da staviš povez preko očiju.

Kay, now can you see anything? (Girl: No.)

Ok, da li vidiš išta? (Devojka: Ne.)

Pull it so you can't even see down. (Girl: Okay.)

Navuci ga da ne možeš da vidiš ni dole. (Devojka: Okej.)

Woman: It's completely blind now, right?

Žena: Ništa ne vidiš sada, je l' da?

Girl: Yes. (Woman: Okay.)

Devojka: Da. (Žena: Okej.)

Now, what I'm going to be looking for in this test

E sad, ono što ću ispitati u ovom testu

is how it protects your lips,

je kako preparat štiti usne,

the texture, right,

teksturu, okej,

and maybe if you can discern any flavor or not.

i da li možeš da prepoznaš neki ukus ili ne.

Girl: Okay. (Woman: Have you ever done a kissing test before?)

Devojka: Okej. (Žena: Da li si ikada imala test ljubljenja?)

Girl: No.

Devojka: Ne.

Woman: Take a step here.

Žena: Stani ovde.

Okay, now I'm going to ask you to pucker up.

Ok, sada ću te zamoliti da se napućiš.

Pucker up big and lean in just a little bit, okay?

Lepo se napući i malo se nagni, okej?

(Music)

(Muzika)

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Woman: Okay.

Žena: Okej.

And, Jennifer, how did that feel?

Dženifer, kako je bilo?

Jennifer: Good.

Dženifer: Dobro.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Girl: Oh my God!

Devojka: O, Bože!

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Michael Shermer: Thank you very much. Thank you. Thanks.

Majkl Šermer (Michael Shermer): Hvala vam mnogo. Hvala vam. Hvala.