The pattern behind self-deception | Michael Shermer

翻译人员: Coco Shen 校对人员: Zhu Jie

So since I was here last in '06,

自06年我上一次来后

we discovered that global climate change

我们发现了全球暖化

is turning out to be a pretty serious issue,

已变成颇严重的问题

so we covered that fairly extensively

於是我们在"怀疑"杂志

in Skeptic magazine.

里了深入报导

We investigate all kinds

我们研究了所有

of scientific and quasi-scientific controversies,

科学及类科学的争论

but it turns out we don't have to worry about any of this

不过最后发现我们根本不用担心这些

because the world's going to end in 2012.

反正2012年世界末日就到了

Another update:

另一件新消息是

You will recall I introduced you guys

应该还记得我曾为你们介绍过

to the Quadro Tracker.

Quadro 探测器

It's like a water dowsing device.

一如探水器

It's just a hollow piece of plastic with an antenna that swivels around.

只是一个空心胶件上面装了会转的甚麽天线

And you walk around, and it points to things.

你拿着走, 它就会指向甚麽.

Like if you're looking for marijuana in students' lockers,

若你要在学生衣物櫃里找大麻,

it'll point right to somebody.

它会马上指向某人

Oh, sorry. (Laughter)

哦, 对不起. (哄笑)

This particular one that was given to me

而别人给我的这只

finds golf balls,

是专门用来找高尔夫球的

especially if you're at a golf course

尤其是当你在高球场里

and you check under enough bushes.

而且钻够了树丛以后。

Well, under the category of "What's the harm of silly stuff like this?"

如果你认为这些东西"是有点傻但无害“

this device, the ADE 651,

这东西, ADE 651

was sold to the Iraqi government

以一只四万美金的价钱

for 40,000 dollars apiece.

卖给了伊拉克政府

It's just like this one, completely worthless,

跟这个没两样, 都是一文不值的废物,

in which it allegedly worked by "electrostatic

被说成是靠甚麽 "静电

magnetic ion attraction,"

离子吸力"操作,

which translates to

若译作

"pseudoscientific baloney" -- would be the nice word --

"伪科学胡绉八扯" 就好了--

in which you string together a bunch of words that sound good,

将一些动听的词儿凑成一串

but it does absolutely nothing.

却什么功能也没有

In this case, at trespass points,

如果在禁区

allowing people to go through

你让人通过

because your little tracker device said they were okay,

就因你的这小探具说行

actually cost lives.

却有可能赔上性命。

So there is a danger to pseudoscience,

所以说伪科学及相信这类东西

in believing in this sort of thing.

都有危险.

So what I want to talk about today is belief.

所以我今天要谈的是相信。

I want to believe,

我想信,

and you do too.

你也是

And in fact, I think my thesis here is that

事实上，我今天的主题是

belief is the natural state of things.

相信是一种自然反应

It is the default option. We just believe.

是本能的一部分, 我们就爱信

We believe all sorts of things.

我们什么都信

Belief is natural;

相信是自然的

disbelief, skepticism, science, is not natural.

不信, 怀疑, 科学, 都不自然

It's more difficult.

那比较困难

It's uncomfortable to not believe things.

因为拒绝相信令人不适

So like Fox Mulder on "X-Files,"

就像X档案里的 Fox Mulder

who wants to believe in UFOs? Well, we all do,

谁想相信 UFOs? 嗯, 我们都想.

and the reason for that is because

那是因为

we have a belief engine in our brains.

我们脑里有个相信机制

Essentially, we are pattern-seeking primates.

事实上，我们是找寻模式的灵长类

We connect the dots: A is connected to B; B is connected to C.

我们找寻事物的关联: A和B； B和C

And sometimes A really is connected to B,

有时A真的和B有关

and that's called association learning.

这叫做联想学习

We find patterns, we make those connections,

我们找出模式，我们找寻事物的关联性

whether it's Pavlov's dog here

无论是巴甫洛夫的狗

associating the sound of the bell with the food,

对铃声和食物产生联想

and then he salivates to the sound of the bell,

于是一听到铃声就流口水

or whether it's a Skinnerian rat,

或是斯金纳的老鼠

in which he's having an association

对它的行为和奖赏

between his behavior and a reward for it,

做出联想

and therefore he repeats the behavior.

于是不停重复一样的行为

In fact, what Skinner discovered

事实上，斯金纳发现

is that, if you put a pigeon in a box like this,

如果你把鸽子放进这样一个盒子

and he has to press one of these two keys,

它必须要按其中一个钮

and he tries to figure out what the pattern is,

他尝试找出模式

and you give him a little reward in the hopper box there --

如果你从这里给它一点奖赏

if you just randomly assign rewards

就算你只是随意地给它奖赏

such that there is no pattern,

毫无计划的

they will figure out any kind of pattern.

鸽子仍然会找出一种模式

And whatever they were doing just before they got the reward,

无论它们在拿到奖赏前做了什么动作

they repeat that particular pattern.

它们便会不同重复那动作

Sometimes it was even spinning around twice counterclockwise,

有时候是逆时针倒转两次

once clockwise and peck the key twice.

正转一次，然后琢按钮两次

And that's called superstition,

这就是：迷信

and that, I'm afraid,

很不幸地

we will always have with us.

我们也是如此

I call this process "patternicity" --

我称这个过程为“模式识别”

that is, the tendency to find meaningful patterns

那是我们脑中将对有或没有意义的事物

in both meaningful and meaningless noise.

都赋予模式意义的倾向

When we do this process, we make two types of errors.

在这个过程中我们犯了两种错误

A Type I error, or false positive,

第一类是“假阳性”

is believing a pattern is real

相信一个假的模式

when it's not.

是真的

Our second type of error is a false negative.

第二类是“假阴性”

A Type II error is not believing

第二类是不相信一个模式是真的

a pattern is real when it is.

当它是真的时候。

So let's do a thought experiment.

让我们做一个思想实验

You are a hominid three million years ago

你是一个三百万年前的原始人

walking on the plains of Africa.

走在非洲大陆上

Your name is Lucy, okay?

你的名字是露西

And you hear a rustle in the grass.

你听见草丛里有一些动静

Is it a dangerous predator,

是危险的捕食者

or is it just the wind?

还是风声？

Your next decision could be the most important one of your life.

接下来你要做的决定将是你一生最重要的决定

Well, if you think that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator

如果你把草丛里的风声

and it turns out it's just the wind,

当作危险的捕食者

you've made an error in cognition,

你产生了一个错误认知

made a Type I error, false positive.

一个假阳性错误

But no harm. You just move away.

但无所谓，你慢慢走开

You're more cautious. You're more vigilant.

你更小心、更谨慎

On the other hand, if you believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind,

但如果你以为只是风声

and it turns out it's a dangerous predator,

结果却是危险的掠食者

you're lunch.

你便成了它的午餐。

You've just won a Darwin award.

获得“达尔文奖”

You've been taken out of the gene pool.

从此以后从基因库中消失

Now the problem here is that

问题是

patternicities will occur whenever the cost

只要类型一的代价

of making a Type I error

比类型二更轻微

is less than the cost of making a Type II error.

“模式识别”就会一直存在

This is the only equation in the talk by the way.

这是整篇演讲里唯一的方程式。

We have a pattern detection problem

我们“模式识别”的问题

that is assessing the difference between a Type I and a Type II error

在于认清类型一和类型二的差别

is highly problematic,

这很令人困扰

especially in split-second, life-and-death situations.

尤其在这种刻不容发、生死交关的情况下

So the default position

于是我们的内建反应

is just: Believe all patterns are real --

便是”相信所有模式“

All rustles in the grass are dangerous predators

“所有草丛的声响都是危险掠食者

and not just the wind.

而不是风声。”

And so I think that we evolved ...

经过一系列的演化

there was a natural selection for the propensity for our belief engines,

我们的信任倾向经过了一系列物竞天择的过程

our pattern-seeking brain processes,

我们找寻模式的大脑

to always find meaningful patterns

总是在找寻有意义的模式

and infuse them with these sort of

并且将这些模式与

predatory or intentional agencies that I'll come back to.

一些令人恐惧的原型产生联想。

So for example, what do you see here?

举例来说，你觉得这是什么？

It's a horse head, that's right.

这是个马头，没错

It looks like a horse. It must be a horse.

它看上去像是匹马，这一定是匹马。

That's a pattern.

这是个模式

And is it really a horse?

这真的是匹马吗？

Or is it more like a frog?

还是它比较像只青蛙？

See, our pattern detection device,

我们的模式探测装置

which appears to be located in the anterior cingulate cortex --

在我们脑中的前扣带皮层

it's our little detection device there --

一个小小的探测装置

can be easily fooled, and this is the problem.

是很容易被骗的

For example, what do you see here?

举例来说，你觉得这是什么？

Yes, of course, it's a cow.

是的，是只母牛

Once I prime the brain -- it's called cognitive priming --

一旦我启动了脑 － 称作认知启动

once I prime the brain to see it,

一旦我启动脑去看

it pops back out again even without the pattern that I've imposed on it.

它便会看见，寻找，就算我没去想模式

And what do you see here?

这又是什么？

Some people see a Dalmatian dog.

有些人看到斑点狗

Yes, there it is. And there's the prime.

在这里，于是我们启动了脑

So when I go back without the prime,

就算我们把指示拿掉

your brain already has the model

你的脑还是留着模式

so you can see it again.

你还是可以看到

What do you see here?

这又是什么？

Planet Saturn. Yes, that's good.

土星，没错

How about here?

这个呢？

Just shout out anything you see.

想到什么就喊出来

That's a good audience, Chris.

这群观众很优秀，Chris

Because there's nothing in this. Well, allegedly there's nothing.

因为图片裡什么也没有，据说没有

This is an experiment done by Jennifer Whitson

这是奥斯顿大学的 Jennifer Whitson

at U.T. Austin

所做的一个实验

on corporate environments

她想知道在企业环境中

and whether feelings of uncertainty and out of control

不确定和失控的感觉

makes people see illusory patterns.

是否会让人看见一些虚幻的模式

That is, almost everybody sees the planet Saturn.

就是说，虽然每个人都看得到土星

People that are put in a condition of feeling out of control

但如果你把人放在一个感觉失控的状况下

are more likely to see something in this,

他就有可能在图片里看出什么

which is allegedly patternless.

就算里面什么模式也没有

In other words, the propensity to find these patterns

换句话说，越是失控的时候

goes up when there's a lack of control.

想到这些模式的可能就更大

For example, baseball players are notoriously superstitious

举例说，棒球球员在打击的时候

when they're batting,

迷信是出了名的

but not so much when they're fielding.

但守备的时候却不然

Because fielders are successful

因为守备的成功率

90 to 95 percent of the time.

高达百分之90到95

The best batters fail seven out of 10 times.

就算最好的打击手，十次里也有七次是失败

So their superstitions, their patternicities,

于是它们的迷信，他们的模式识别

are all associated with feelings of lack of control

都和感觉失控有些

and so forth.

附带关系

What do you see in this particular one here, in this field?

你看见什么了吗？

Anybody see an object there?

有人看见任何物体吗？

There actually is something here,

其实是有的

but it's degraded.

只是模糊了

While you're thinking about that,

在你想着这件事的时候

this was an experiment done by Susan Blackmore,

这是英国心理学家 Susan Blackmore

a psychologist in England,

做的一个实验

who showed subjects this degraded image

她让参与者看这个模糊的图像

and then ran a correlation between

然后再将结果和他们在

their scores on an ESP test:

超感知测验的分数做比较

How much did they believe in the paranormal,

他们多相信超科学

supernatural, angels and so forth.

超自然、天使种种

And those who scored high on the ESP scale,

那些在超感知测验上拿高分的人

tended to not only see

不但从图像上看到更多

more patterns in the degraded images

模式

but incorrect patterns.

而且还是些不正确的模式

Here is what you show subjects.

这是他们给参与者看的图像

The fish is degraded 20 percent, 50 percent

这条鱼模糊了百分之20到50

and then the one I showed you,

刚刚你们看到的

70 percent.

是百分之70

A similar experiment was done by another [Swiss] psychologist

另一个英国心理学家也做过相似的实验

named Peter Brugger,

他是 Peter Brugger

who found significantly more meaningful patterns

他发现右脑更能识别出有意义的模式

were perceived on the right hemisphere,

经过负责视觉的左脑

via the left visual field, than the left hemisphere.

更甚左脑本身

So if you present subjects the images such

如果你让参与者看这些影像

that it's going to end up on the right hemisphere instead of the left,

它们出现在右脑，而不是左脑

then they're more likely to see patterns

它们更容易识别模式

than if you put it on the left hemisphere.

比你使用左脑时更有可能

Our right hemisphere appears to be

我们的右脑似乎

where a lot of this patternicity occurs.

更容易识别出模式

So what we're trying to do is bore into the brain

我们希望到脑子里看看

to see where all this happens.

这到底都是在哪里发生的

Brugger and his colleague, Christine Mohr,

Brgger 和他的研究伙伴 Christine Mohr

gave subjects L-DOPA.

让这些参与者使用左旋多巴

L-DOPA's a drug, as you know, given for treating Parkinson's disease,

左旋多巴是一种用来治疗帕金森氏病的药物

which is related to a decrease in dopamine.

帕金森氏病和多巴胺降低有关

L-DOPA increases dopamine.

而左旋多巴会增加多巴胺

An increase of dopamine caused

增加多巴胺让参与者

subjects to see more patterns

识别更多模式

than those that did not receive the dopamine.

比那些没有收到多巴胺的参与者更多。

So dopamine appears to be the drug

多巴胺和模式识别

associated with patternicity.

似乎有些关联

In fact, neuroleptic drugs

事实上

that are used to eliminate psychotic behavior,

那些用来降低神经病症的神经安定药

things like paranoia, delusions

偏执、妄想

and hallucinations,

和幻觉

these are patternicities.

其实都是模式识别的一种

They're incorrect patterns. They're false positives. They're Type I errors.

他们是错误的模式。第一类的，假阳性

And if you give them drugs

如果你给他们药物

that are dopamine antagonists,

阻断多巴胺受体

they go away.

这些错误模式就会消失

That is, you decrease the amount of dopamine,

意思是，如果你减低多巴胺

and their tendency to see

他们错认模式的几率

patterns like that decreases.

就会降低

On the other hand, amphetamines like cocaine

从另一方面来说，像可卡因那样的苯异丙胺

are dopamine agonists.

那样的多巴胺激动剂

They increase the amount of dopamine.

会提升多巴胺的分泌量

So you're more likely to feel in a euphoric state,

你更容易感觉飘飘然

creativity, find more patterns.

增进创意，发现更多模式

In fact, I saw Robin Williams recently

事实上，我最近刚见过罗宾·威廉斯

talk about how he thought he was much funnier

我们谈论到他过去使用可卡因的时候更为有趣

when he was doing cocaine, when he had that issue, than now.

当他还有药物问题的时候

So perhaps more dopamine

或许更多多巴胺

is related to more creativity.

代表更有创意

Dopamine, I think, changes

我认为多巴胺会改变

our signal-to-noise ratio.

我们脑里的信噪比

That is, how accurate we are

决定我们辨识出的模式

in finding patterns.

是对或错

If it's too low, you're more likely to make too many Type II errors.

如果多巴胺太低，你有可能做出第二类的错误决定

You miss the real patterns. You don't want to be too skeptical.

忽略太多模式。你不想太多疑

If you're too skeptical, you'll miss the really interesting good ideas.

如果你太多疑，你可能会错失一些很棒的点子

Just right, you're creative, and yet you don't fall for too much baloney.

刚刚好，可以很有创意，也不会太容易受骗

Too high and maybe you see patterns everywhere.

多巴胺太高，变得过分敏感

Every time somebody looks at you, you think people are staring at you.

每次有人看你，你就认为他们在瞪你

You think people are talking about you.

你觉得人们在谈论你

And if you go too far on that, that's just simply

如果情况太严重

labeled as madness.

就会被贴上“疯狂”的标签

It's a distinction perhaps we might make

这就是费曼（物理学家）

between two Nobel laureates, Richard Feynman

和约翰·纳什（有妄想症的数学家）

and John Nash.

两个诺贝尔得主的差别

One sees maybe just the right number

一个感知的模式

of patterns to win a Nobel Prize.

刚好足够让她赢得诺贝尔

The other one also, but maybe too many patterns.

另外一个也是，只是有些太多了

And we then call that schizophrenia.

就成了精神分裂症

So the signal-to-noise ratio then presents us with a pattern-detection problem.

信噪比让我们明白对模式太敏感或太不敏感都会出问题

And of course you all know exactly

你们都知道

what this is, right?

这是什么吧

And what pattern do you see here?

你在这里看到什么？

Again, I'm putting your anterior cingulate cortex to the test here,

我现在在考验你的前状束

causing you conflicting pattern detections.

让你同时辨识出两种模式，产生冲突

You know, of course, this is Via Uno shoes.

这是一双Via Uno的鞋

These are sandals.

拖鞋

Pretty sexy feet, I must say.

这脚真的很性感，我必须说

Maybe a little Photoshopped.

虽然可能修片修的有点太过了

And of course, the ambiguous figures

当然，还有一些暧昧不明的形象

that seem to flip-flop back and forth.

持续改变着

It turns out what you're thinking about a lot

似乎你在想的是什么

influences what you

就会影响你

tend to see.

看到的是什么

And you see the lamp here, I know.

我知道大家看到的都是灯

Because the lights on here.

因为它是亮着的

Of course, thanks to the environmentalist movement

当然，感谢那些环保运动

we're all sensitive to the plight of marine mammals.

我们都知道海底哺乳动物的生存困境

So what you see in this particular ambiguous figure

所以大家在这里所看见的

is, of course, the dolphins, right?

一定是，海豚，对吧

You see a dolphin here,

这里有个海豚

and there's a dolphin,

这里有个海豚

and there's a dolphin.

这里还有个海豚

That's a dolphin tail there, guys.

这里有个海豚尾巴，同志们

(Laughter)

（笑声）

If we can give you conflicting data, again,

如果我们给你的影响在脑中造成衝突

your ACC is going to be going into hyperdrive.

就像按下了你脑中前状束的加速推动器

If you look down here, it's fine. If you look up here, then you get conflicting data.

如果你看这里，没问题，看看上面，就产生了茅盾

And then we have to flip the image

于是我们把影像翻过来

for you to see that it's a set up.

你就能看出这是安排的

The impossible crate illusion.

不可能的影像造成幻觉

It's easy to fool the brain in 2D.

用2D影像欺骗大脑很容易

So you say, "Aw, come on Shermer, anybody can do that

你可以说“拜托，这很简单

in a Psych 101 text with an illusion like that."

大一的心理学课本都有”

Well here's the late, great Jerry Andrus'

让我们看看 Jerry Andrus'

"impossible crate" illusion in 3D,

创造出来的 3D幻觉方框

in which Jerry is standing inside

看上去 Jerry 像站在里面

the impossible crate.

站在这个“不可能的”方框里面

And he was kind enough to post this

它很好心地加上了这个解释

and give us the reveal.

让我们看出其中的玄妙

Of course, camera angle is everything. The photographer is over there,

当然，摄影角度能改变很多事情，摄影师站在那里

and this board appears to overlap with this one, and this one with that one, and so on.

于是这个板子看上去就像在这个板子上，这个压在这个上，之类的

But even when I take it away,

但就算我告诉你是什么回事

the illusion is so powerful because of how are brains are wired

这个幻觉已经在你大脑里留下了深刻的印象

to find those certain kinds of patterns.

大脑仍会找到这个熟悉的模式

This is a fairly new one

这是一个比较新的例子

that throws us off because of the conflicting patterns

当我们比较这两个不同角度

of comparing this angle with that angle.

大脑里产生的模式衝=冲突让我们迷惑

In fact, it's the exact same picture side by side.

事实上，这是两张完全一样的照片

So what you're doing is comparing that angle

因为你比较这个角度

instead of with this one, but with that one.

而不是那个角度

And so your brain is fooled.

欺骗了你的大脑

Yet again, your pattern detection devices are fooled.

于是，你的模式辨识程式又被骗了

Faces are easy to see

我们很容易看到脸

because we have an additional evolved

因为大脑颞叶裡的面孔辨识软件

facial recognition software

经过千百年的演化

in our temporal lobes.

变得特别先进

Here's some faces on the side of a rock.

这是石头旁出现的一张脸

I'm actually not even sure if this is -- this might be Photoshopped.

事实上我认为 － 这有可能是电脑做的

But anyway, the point is still made.

但没关系，重点是一样的

Now which one of these looks odd to you?

这两张照片哪张比较奇怪？

In a quick reaction, which one looks odd?

立即反应下，哪张比较奇怪？

The one on the left. Okay. So I'll rotate it

左边那张。好的，让我们看看

so it'll be the one on the right.

是右边那张

And you are correct.

你是对的

A fairly famous illusion -- it was first done with Margaret Thatcher.

很有名的错觉 － 刚开始是撒切尔夫人

Now, they trade up the politicians every time.

现在他们会定期更换政治人物

Well, why is this happening?

为什么会这样呢？

Well, we know exactly where it happens,

我们知道这错觉是在哪里组成的

in the temporal lobe, right across, sort of above your ear there,

在颞叶，右边，你的耳朵上面一点

in a little structure called the fusiform gyrus.

一个叫做梭状回的小组织

And there's two types of cells that do this,

有两种细胞负责

that record facial features either globally,

记得这些脸面特征

or specifically these large, rapid-firing cells,

或是这些巨大的，快速的细胞

first look at the general face.

它们会先辨识脸的大概

So you recognize Obama immediately.

所以你马上可以认出这是欧巴马

And then you notice something quite

然后你开始注意到

a little bit odd about the eyes and the mouth.

眼睛和嘴巴那边似乎有些怪

Especially when they're upside down,

尤其我们把它倒着放的时候

you're engaging that general facial recognition software there.

你便开始启动大脑里的面孔辨识软件

Now I said back in our little thought experiment,

之前我提到一个小小的思考实验

you're a hominid walking on the plains of Africa.

想象你是个走在非洲大陆上的原人

Is it just the wind or a dangerous predator?

想着到底是风还是掠食者？

What's the difference between those?

这两者的差别在哪里？

Well, the wind is inanimate;

风不是一个生命体

the dangerous predator is an intentional agent.

危险的掠食者却是有意识的作用者

And I call this process agenticity.

我把这个过程称为 "造神“ （赋予作用）

That is the tendency to infuse patterns

尝试赋予这些模式

with meaning, intention and agency,

意义、意识、和作用

often invisible beings from the top down.

把它们想作是天上来的一些隐性的东西

This is an idea that we got

这个想法是从 TED 的一位讲者

from a fellow TEDster here, Dan Dennett,

Dan Dennett 来的

who talked about taking the intentional stance.

它所谈到的"意向性立场"

So it's a type of that expanded to explain, I think, a lot of different things:

我想这可以解释很多事情

souls, spirits, ghosts, gods, demons, angels,

灵魂、鬼魂、神怪、天使

aliens, intelligent designers,

外星人、聪明的造物者

government conspiracists

政府的阴谋

and all manner of invisible agents

全都是些隐形的作用者

with power and intention, are believed

用我们的有力的意向，去相信

to haunt our world and control our lives.

影响我们的世界、控制我们的生活

I think it's the basis of animism

我觉得这是万物有灵论

and polytheism and monotheism.

多神论和一神论的来源

It's the belief that aliens are somehow

一种相信外来灵体

more advanced than us, more moral than us,

比我们更先进、更有道德

and the narratives always are

而且故事每次都是

that they're coming here to save us and rescue us from on high.

它们将会从天而降来拯救我们

The intelligent designer's always portrayed

聪明的造物主总是被描写成

as this super intelligent, moral being

这个绝顶聪明的道德模范

that comes down to design life.

创造万物

Even the idea that government can rescue us --

甚至政府能够拯救我们的这种想法

that's no longer the wave of the future,

已经不是很热门了

but that is, I think, a type of agenticity:

但我认为这仍然和”造神“有关

projecting somebody up there,

心理投射在我们至上会有什么东西

big and powerful, will come rescue us.

万能又伟大，要来拯救我们

And this is also, I think, the basis of conspiracy theories.

我想这也是阴谋论的基础

There's somebody hiding behind there pulling the strings,

某些事物正躲在某处，控制着我们

whether it's the Illuminati

无论是个先觉者

or the Bilderbergers.

还是标德堡秘密大会成员

But this is a pattern detection problem, isn't it?

但我们都有模式认知的问题，不是吗

Some patterns are real and some are not.

某些模式是真的，某些不是

Was JFK assassinated by a conspiracy or by a lone assassin?

肯尼迪究竟是被杀手谋杀，还是背后有更大的阴谋？

Well, if you go there -- there's people there on any given day --

如果你到那里去 － 一年四季都有人在那里

like when I went there, here -- showing me where the different shooters were.

我在那里的时候，许多人告诉我狙击手的藏身处

My favorite one was he was in the manhole.

我最喜欢的说法是躲下水道里

And he popped out at the last second, took that shot.

最后一秒从井盖跳出来，射杀了他

But of course, Lincoln was assassinated by a conspiracy.

但当然，林肯便是被阴谋暗杀的

So we can't just uniformly dismiss

所以我们也不能完全忽略

all patterns like that.

所有的模式

Because, let's face it, some patterns are real.

因为，事实上，某些模式是真的

Some conspiracies really are true.

某些阴谋也是真的

Explains a lot, maybe.

这能解释很多事情

And 9/11 has a conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy.

也有人用阴谋论来解释911

We did a whole issue on it.

于是我们特别做了一整集的专题讨论它

Nineteen members of Al Queda plotting to fly planes into buildings

19个盖达组织成员策划让飞机撞上大楼

constitutes a conspiracy.

这是阴谋

But that's not what the "9/11 truthers" think.

但“911真相组”不是这么想的

They think it was an inside job by the Bush administration.

他们认为是小布希政府做的

Well, that's a whole other lecture.

我可以用一整个演讲来讲这个话题

You know how we know that 9/11

但你知道我们为什么确定

was not orchestrated by the Bush administration?

那不是小布希政府做的吗？

Because it worked.

因为它最后成功了

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

So we are natural-born dualists.

我们都是天生的二元论者

Our agenticity process comes from

我们造神的心态

the fact that we can enjoy movies like these.

和我们享受这类电影的心态是一样的

Because we can imagine, in essence,

说到底，都是因为我们的想象力

continuing on.

再来

We know that if you stimulate the temporal lobe,

我们知道如果你刺激颞叶

you can produce a feeling of out-of-body experiences,

便可以创造灵魂出窍的体验

near-death experiences,

濒死体验

which you can do by just touching an electrode to the temporal lobe there.

只要微微刺激颞叶

Or you can do it through loss of consciousness,

你也可以靠着催化离心机

by accelerating in a centrifuge.

便会失去意识

You get a hypoxia, or a lower oxygen.

一旦组织缺氧

And the brain then senses

大脑便会产生

that there's an out-of-body experience.

一种灵魂出窍的体验

You can use -- which I did, went out and did --

你可以用这个，我试过

Michael Persinger's God Helmet,

Michael Persinger的”神奇头盔“

that bombards your temporal lobes with electromagnetic waves.

它用电波刺激你的颞叶

And you get a sense of out-of-body experience.

让你达到灵魂出窍的体验

So I'm going to end here with a short video clip

我现在要用一个短片

that sort of brings all this together.

作为总结

It's just a minute and a half.

它有一分钟半

It ties together all this into the power of expectation and the power of belief.

能证明我们预期和相信的力量有多么强大

Go ahead and roll it.

让我们开始

Narrator: This is the venue they chose for their fake auditions

旁白：我们在这里假装

for an advert for lip balm.

要为一个护唇膏的广告片选角

Woman: We're hoping we can use part of this

旁白：我们希望可以选一些段落

in a national commercial, right?

在全国播出

And this is test on some lip balms

我们要测试这些

that we have over here.

护唇膏

And these are our models who are going to help us,

这两位模特儿罗杰和迈特

Roger and Matt.

会帮助我们

And we have our own lip balm,

这是我们的护唇膏

and we have a leading brand.

另外还有一个著名品牌

Would you have any problem

你需要和这两位接吻

kissing our models to test it?

会有困难吗？

Girl: No.

女孩：不会

Woman: You wouldn't? (Girl: No.) Woman: You'd think that was fine.

旁白：不会吗？（女孩：不会。）旁白：你觉得没问题

Girl: That would be fine. (Woman: Okay.)

女孩：没问题。（旁白：好的。）

So this is a blind test.

这是个盲测试

I'm going to ask you to go ahead

我需要你

and put a blindfold on.

把眼睛盖上

Kay, now can you see anything? (Girl: No.)

你能看到任何东西吗？（女孩：不能）

Pull it so you can't even see down. (Girl: Okay.)

把它往下拉一点，确定你不会看到下面（女孩：好的）

Woman: It's completely blind now, right?

旁白：现在什么也看不到了对吗？

Girl: Yes. (Woman: Okay.)

女孩：是的。（旁边：好的）

Now, what I'm going to be looking for in this test

现在，我们所需要的是

is how it protects your lips,

护唇膏如何保护你的嘴唇

the texture, right,

它的质感，对吗

and maybe if you can discern any flavor or not.

看看你是否能察觉任何味道

Girl: Okay. (Woman: Have you ever done a kissing test before?)

女孩：好的（旁白：你有参与过任何接吻测试吗？）

Girl: No.

女孩：没有

Woman: Take a step here.

旁白：往这里走一步

Okay, now I'm going to ask you to pucker up.

好的，现在我要你把嘴嘟起来

Pucker up big and lean in just a little bit, okay?

嘟起来，然后靠近点，好的

(Music)

（音乐）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Woman: Okay.

好的

And, Jennifer, how did that feel?

珍妮佛，你感觉如何

Jennifer: Good.

珍妮佛：很好

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Girl: Oh my God!

女孩：喔！老天！

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Michael Shermer: Thank you very much. Thank you. Thanks.

Michael Shermer：非常谢谢各位，谢谢。谢谢你们。