Two reasons companies fail -- and how to avoid them | Knut Haanaes

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Milenka Okuka

Here are two reasons companies fail:

Ovo su dva razloga zbog kojih firme propadaju:

they only do more of the same,

samo rade iznova jedno te isto,

or they only do what's new.

ili samo rade ono što je novo.

To me the real, real solution to quality growth

Smatram da je istinski pravo rešenje ka rastu kvaliteta

is figuring out the balance between two activities:

uspostavljanje ravnoteže između dve aktivnosti:

exploration and exploitation.

istraživanje i eksploatacija.

Both are necessary,

Obe su neophodne,

but it can be too much of a good thing.

ali može biti previše dobrih stvari.

Consider Facit.

Uzmite u obzir Fasit.

I'm actually old enough to remember them.

Zapravo sam dovoljno star da bih ih se setio.

Facit was a fantastic company.

Fasit je bila fantastična kompanija.

They were born deep in the Swedish forest,

Osnovani su duboko u švedskoj šumi,

and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.

i napravili su najbolje mehaničke digitrone na svetu.

Everybody used them.

Svi su ih koristili.

And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?

I šta je Fasit uradio kada je elektronski digitron došao?

They continued doing exactly the same.

Nastavili su da rade potpuno istu stvar.

In six months, they went from maximum revenue ...

Za 6 meseci, otišli su od najvećeg prihoda...

and they were gone.

do nestanka.

Gone.

Nestali.

To me, the irony about the Facit story

Po mom mišljenju, ironija o priči o Fasitu

is hearing about the Facit engineers,

je slušanje o inženjerima iz Fasita,

who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan

koji su kupili jeftine, male elektronske digitrone u Japanu

that they used to double-check their calculators.

koje su koristili da proveravaju svoje digitrone.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Facit did too much exploitation.

Fasit je previše eksploatisao.

But exploration can go wild, too.

I istraživanje može da dovede do ludila.

A few years back,

Pre nekoliko godina,

I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.

blisko sam sarađivao sa jednom biotehničkom kompanijom iz Evrope.

Let's call them OncoSearch.

Nazovimo ih Onkosrč.

The company was brilliant.

Firma je bila fantastična.

They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,

Imali su aplikacije koje su obećavale dijagnozu, čak i lečenje,

certain forms of blood cancer.

određenih oblika leukemije.

Every day was about creating something new.

Svakog dana se nešto novo stvaralo.

They were extremely innovative,

Bili su izrazito inovativni,

and the mantra was, "When we only get it right,"

i njihova deviza je bila: "Kada to znamo dobro da radimo."

or even, "We want it perfect."

ili čak, "Želimo da bude savršeno."

The sad thing is,

Loša stvar je

before they became perfect --

pre nego što su postali savršeni,

even good enough --

čak dovoljno dobri,

they became obsolete.

postali su zastareli.

OncoSearch did too much exploration.

Onkosrč je pravio previše istraživanja.

I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,

Prvo sam čuo za istraživanje i eksploataciju pre oko 15 godina,

when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.

kada sam radio kao gostujući predavač na Univerzitetu Stenford.

The founder of the idea is Jim March.

Osnivač ideje je Džim Marč.

And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.

Smatram da je moć ideje njena praktičnost.

Exploration.

Istraživanje.

Exploration is about coming up with what's new.

Istraživanje predstavlja shvatanje šta je novo.

It's about search,

Ono predstavlja istraživanje,

it's about discovery,

otkriće,

it's about new products,

nove proizvode,

it's about new innovations.

nove inovacije.

It's about changing our frontiers.

Pomeranje granica.

Our heroes are people who have done exploration:

Naši heroji su ljudi koji su istraživali:

Madame Curie,

Marija Kiri,

Picasso,

Pikaso,

Neil Armstrong,

Nil Armstrong,

Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.

Ser Edmund Hilari, itd.

I come from Norway;

Potičem iz Norveške,

all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.

i svi naši heroji su istraživači i zaslužuju da to budu.

We all know that exploration is risky.

Svi znamo da je istraživanje rizično.

We don't know the answers,

Ne znamo odgovore,

we don't know if we're going to find them,

ne znamo da li ćemo ih pronaći,

and we know that the risks are high.

ali znamo da su rizici visoki.

Exploitation is the opposite.

Eksploatacija je nešto suprotno.

Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have

Ona predstavlja sticanje znanja

and making good, better.

i njegovo usavršavanje i proširivanje.

Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.

Eksploatacija uzrokuje da naši vozovi stižu na vreme.

It's about making good products faster and cheaper.

Zbog nje su dobri proizvodi brži i jeftiniji.

Exploitation is not risky --

Eksploatacija nije rizična,

in the short term.

kratkoročno.

But if we only exploit,

Ali ako samo eksploatišemo,

it's very risky in the long term.

veoma je rizična na duge staze.

And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups

Mislim da se svi mi sećamo čuvenih pop grupa

who keep singing the same songs again and again,

koje su pevale istu pesmu iznova i iznova,

until they become obsolete or even pathetic.

dok nisu zastarele i postale patetične.

That's the risk of exploitation.

Ovo je rizik eksploatacije.

So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.

Ako pogledamo dugoročnu perspektivu, mi istražujemo.

If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.

Ako uzmemo kratkoročni uvid, mi eksploatišemo.

Small children, they explore all day.

Deca istražuju svakoga dana.

All day it's about exploration.

Čitav dan provode u istraživanju.

As we grow older,

Kako odrastamo,

we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.

istražujemo manje jer imamo više znanja za eksploatisanje.

The same goes for companies.

Isto je i sa kompanijama.

Companies become, by nature, less innovative

Kompanije prirodno postaju manje inovativne

as they become more competent.

kako postaju sposobnije.

And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.

A ovo je naravno velika briga za direktore.

And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.

Često čujem pitanja koja su postavljana na drugačiji način.

For example,

Na primer:

"How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?"

"Kako mogu da i uspešno vodim kompaniju i iznova je izgrađujem?"

Or, "How can I make sure

Ili "Kako mogu da budem siguran

that our company changes before we become obsolete

da se naša kompanija menja pre nego što zastarimo

or are hit by a crisis?"

ili nas pogodi kriza?"

So, doing one well is difficult.

Činiti dobro jedno od to dvoje je teško.

Doing both well as the same time is art --

Činiti obe stvari dobro u isto vreme je umetnost -

pushing both exploration and exploitation.

guranje istraživanja i eksploatisanja.

So one thing we've found

Jedna stvar koju smo otkrili

is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore

je da je samo dva procenta kompanija sposobno da efektivno istražuje

and exploit at the same time, in parallel.

i eksploatiše paralelno, u isto vreme.

But when they do,

Ali kada to rade,

the payoffs are huge.

prilično se isplati.

So we have lots of great examples.

Imamo mnogo sjajnih primera.

We have Nestlé creating Nespresso,

Nestle koji pravi Nespreso,

we have Lego going into animated films,

Lego koji snima animirane filmove,

Toyota creating the hybrids,

Tojota pravi hibride,

Unilever pushing into sustainability --

Unilever koji podržava održivi razvoj,

there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.

postoji gomila primera a prednosti su ogromne.

Why is balancing so difficult?

Zašto je balansiranje toliko teško?

I think it's difficult because there are so many traps

Mislim da je teško zato što postoji toliko klopki

that keep us where we are.

koje nas drže tu gde smo.

So I'll talk about two, but there are many.

Pričaću o dve, ali postoji ih mnogo.

So let's talk about the perpetual search trap.

Popričajmo o klopci trajne potrage.

We discover something,

Oktrijemo nešto,

but we don't have the patience or the persistence

ali nemamo strpljenja ili istrajnosti

to get at it and make it work.

da krenemo s tim i nateramo ga da radi.

So instead of staying with it, we create something new.

Umesto da se držimo toga, stvorimo nešto novo.

But the same goes for that,

Ali isto je i za to,

then we're in the vicious circle

tako da smo u začaranom krugu

of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.

gde zapravo dolazimo do ideja ali smo frustrirani.

OncoSearch was a good example.

Onkosrč je bio dobar primer.

A famous example is, of course, Xerox.

Čuveni primer je naravno Kseroks.

But we don't only see this in companies.

Ali ne vidimo ovo samo u kompanijama.

We see this in the public sector as well.

Ovo se vidi i u javnom sektoru.

We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,

Svi znamo da bilo kakva efikasna reforma školstva,

research, health care, even defense,

istraživanja, zdravstva, čak i odbrane,

takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.

traje 10, 15, možda 20 godina dok ne proradi.

But still, we change much more often.

Ali opet, menjamo stvari mnogo češće.

We really don't give them the chance.

Ne damo im priliku.

Another trap is the success trap.

Druga klopka je klopka uspeha.

Facit fell into the success trap.

Fasit je upao u klopku uspeha.

They literally held the future in their hands,

Bukvalno su imali budućnost u svojim rukama,

but they couldn't see it.

ali nisu mogli da je vide.

They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,

Prosto su bili tako dobri u pravljenju onoga što su voleli,

that they wouldn't change.

da nisu hteli da se menjaju.

We are like that, too.

I mi smo takvi.

When we know something well, it's difficult to change.

Kada nešto dobro poznajemo, teško je promeniti se.

Bill Gates has said:

Bil Gejts je rekao:

"Success is a lousy teacher.

"Uspeh je loš učitelj.

It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail."

Zavodi nas da mislimo da ne možemo da podbacimo."

That's the challenge with success.

To je izazov kod uspeha.

So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.

Mislim da postoje neke lekcije i da su primenjive na sve nas.

And they apply to our companies.

Primenjive su i na naše kompanije.

The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.

Prva lekcija je: idite ispred krize.

And any company that's able to innovate

Svaka kompanija koja je sposobna za inovaciju

is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.

takođe je sposobna da sebi kupi osiguranje za budućnost.

Netflix -- they could so easily have been content

Netfliks - lako su mogli da se zadovolje

with earlier generations of distribution,

ranim generacijama distribucije,

but they always -- and I think they will always --

ali su uvek - i mislim da će uvek tako -

keep pushing for the next battle.

gurali do nove bitke.

I see other companies that say,

Vidim druge kompanije koje kažu:

"I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."

"Pobediću u narednom ciklusu inovacija, šta god bilo potrebno za to."

Second one: think in multiple time scales.

Drugo: mislite na više vremenskih linija.

I'll share a chart with you,

Podeliću s vama grafikon

and I think it's a wonderful one.

i mislim da je predivan.

Any company we look at,

Koju god kompaniju pogledali,

taking a one-year perspective

uzevši perspektivu od jedne godine

and looking at the valuation of the company,

i gledajući vrednost kompanije,

innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.

inovacija obično daje samo oko 30 procenata.

So when we think one year,

Kada mislimo o jednoj godini,

innovation isn't really that important.

inovacija i nije tako bitna.

Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company --

Krenite unapred, pogledajte perspektivu iste kompanije za 10 godina,

suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.

odjednom, inovacija i mogućnost obnavljanja daju 70 procenata.

But companies can't choose.

Ali kompanije nemaju izbor.

They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.

Moraju da finansiraju putovanje i vode na duge staze.

Third:

Treće:

invite talent.

primamite talenat.

I don't think it's possible for any of us

Mislim da za bilo koga od nas nije moguće

to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.

da sami balansiramo istraživanje i eksploataciju.

I think it's a team sport.

Mislim da je to timski sport.

I think we need to allow challenging.

Mislim da treba da dozvolimo izazivanje.

I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,

Mislim da je znak sjajne kompanije otvorenost ka izazivanju,

and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.

i znak sjajnog poslovnog odbora je konstruktivno izazivanje.

I think that's also what good parenting is about.

Mislim da je to i stvar dobrog odnosa roditelja prema deci.

Last one: be skeptical of success.

Poslednje: budite skeptični na uspeh.

Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,

Možda je korisno prisećati se starih trijumfalnih marševa u Rimu,

when the generals, after a big victory,

kada je generalima nakon velike pobede

were given their celebration.

priređena proslava.

Riding into Rome on the carriage,

Ulazivši u Rim na kočijama,

they always had a companion whispering in their ear,

uvek su pored sebe imali saputnika koji bi im šaputao u uvo:

"Remember, you're only human."

"Seti se, ti si samo čovek."

So I hope I made the point:

Nadam se da sam objasnio sve:

balancing exploration and exploitation

balansiranje istraživanja i eksploatisanja

has a huge payoff.

prilično se isplati.

But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.

Ali teško je i moramo biti trezveni.

I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.

Želim samo da istaknem dva korisna pitanja.

First question is, looking at your own company:

Prvo je, gledavši na sopstvenu kompaniju:

In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk

u kojim područjima vidite da je kompanija pod rizikom

of falling into success traps,

da upadne u klopke uspeha,

of just going on autopilot?

da se vozi sama na autopilotu?

And what can you do to challenge?

I šta možete uraditi da to izazovete?

Second question is:

Drugo pitanje je:

When did I explore something new last,

kada sam poslednji put istražio nešto novo

and what kind of effect did it have on me?

i koji je efekat to imalo na mene?

Is that something I should do more of?

Da li to treba više da radim?

In my case, yes.

U mom slučaju, da.

So let me leave you with this.

Ostavljam vas uz ovo.

Whether you're an explorer by nature

Bez obzira da li ste po prirodi istraživač

or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,

ili obično eksploatišete ono što već znate,

don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.

ne zaboravite: lepota je u ravnoteži.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)