Two reasons companies fail -- and how to avoid them | Knut Haanaes

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Allen Kuo

Here are two reasons companies fail:

公司失敗有兩個原因：

they only do more of the same,

他們老做同樣的事情

or they only do what's new.

或者他們只做最新的事情。

To me the real, real solution to quality growth

對我來說，真正高品質的企業成長方案

is figuring out the balance between two activities:

是找出以下兩種活動之間的平衡：

exploration and exploitation.

探索與開發。

Both are necessary,

這兩者都是必要的，

but it can be too much of a good thing.

但太多又不一定是好事。

Consider Facit.

想想辦公室產品 製造商 Facit 公司，

I'm actually old enough to remember them.

其實我算老了，所以還記得他們。

Facit was a fantastic company.

Facit 是一間很棒的公司。

They were born deep in the Swedish forest,

他們在瑞典的森林深處誕生，

and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.

他們曾生產全世界 最好的機械式計算機。

Everybody used them.

大家都用他們的計算機。

And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?

但當電子式計算機來臨時， Facit 做了什麼改變？

They continued doing exactly the same.

他們繼續做一樣的事。

In six months, they went from maximum revenue ...

在半年內，他們從 最高營業額一路下滑，

and they were gone.

直到公司倒了。

Gone.

消失了。

To me, the irony about the Facit story

對我來說，Facit 故事最諷刺的

is hearing about the Facit engineers,

是聽說 Facit 工程師

who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan

在日本買便宜的小型電子計算機

that they used to double-check their calculators.

來驗算他們自己的計算機。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Facit did too much exploitation.

Facit 太注重產品開發了。

But exploration can go wild, too.

但探索過多偶爾也會失控。

A few years back,

幾年前，

I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.

我與一家歐洲的生物科技公司合作。

Let's call them OncoSearch.

讓我們暫且稱呼它為 OncoSearch 吧。

The company was brilliant.

這家公司非常卓越。

They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,

他們有保證能診斷出、甚至治療好

certain forms of blood cancer.

幾種血癌的方法。

Every day was about creating something new.

他們每天都在創造新的東西，

They were extremely innovative,

相當有創新的能力。

and the mantra was, "When we only get it right,"

公司的宗旨是： 「我們不只要把事情做對，

or even, "We want it perfect."

我們甚至要做到完美。」

The sad thing is,

然而不幸的是，

before they became perfect --

在他們成為完美之前──

even good enough --

甚至還不算好時──

they became obsolete.

他們已經被淘汰了。

OncoSearch did too much exploration.

OncoSearch 太過於注重探索了。

I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,

我第一次聽到「探索」和「開發」 這兩種不同的概念，

是在大概15年前，我在史丹佛大學 擔任客座學者時。

when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.

The founder of the idea is Jim March.

吉姆．瑪馳首先提出了這個想法。

And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.

對我來說，這個想法 最厲害的地方是，它相當實用。

Exploration.

探索。

Exploration is about coming up with what's new.

探索是一個想出新東西的過程。

It's about search,

它和搜索有關，

it's about discovery,

和發現有關，

it's about new products,

和新產品有關，

it's about new innovations.

和新發明有關，

It's about changing our frontiers.

和改變我們所知的領域有關。

Our heroes are people who have done exploration:

我們的英雄都是那些探索：

Madame Curie,

居禮夫人、

Picasso,

畢卡索、

Neil Armstrong,

尼爾．阿姆斯壯、

Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.

艾德蒙．希拉里爵士等等。

I come from Norway;

我來自挪威；

all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.

我們所有的英雄都是探索者， 而且他們夠資格被稱為探索者。

We all know that exploration is risky.

我們都知道探索是存在風險的。

We don't know the answers,

我們不知道答案，

we don't know if we're going to find them,

我們不清楚是否可以找到答案，

and we know that the risks are high.

所以我們知道風險很大。

Exploitation is the opposite.

開發則正好相反，

Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have

開發是利用我們現有的知識

and making good, better.

然後把東西變得更好。

Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.

開發就像如何讓火車準點出發，

It's about making good products faster and cheaper.

或是產出更快、更便宜的優良產品。

Exploitation is not risky --

短時間內，開發的風險並不大，

in the short term.

But if we only exploit,

但是如果我們只著重在開發，

it's very risky in the long term.

長期來說風險就很大了。

And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups

我想我們都認識一些知名流行樂團，

who keep singing the same songs again and again,

他們一直唱著一樣的歌， 周而復始地唱，

until they become obsolete or even pathetic.

直到他們過時甚至有點悲慘為止。

That's the risk of exploitation.

這就是過度開發的風險。

So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.

所以，以長遠的角度來看， 我們要探索，

If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.

以短時間而言，我們要開發。

Small children, they explore all day.

小孩天天都在探索新的事物，

All day it's about exploration.

整天都在探索，

As we grow older,

而當我們漸漸長大，

we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.

學到了更多開發的知識， 就越來越少探索了。

The same goes for companies.

對於公司來說也一樣。

Companies become, by nature, less innovative

當公司變得越來越有競爭力時，

as they become more competent.

自然就會減少了探索。

And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.

當然，這對執行長來說 是令他們相當擔心的事情。

And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.

我常常聽到各式各樣的類似問題。

For example,

舉個例子，

"How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?"

「我要如何同時有效地經營 並重新改造我的公司？」

Or, "How can I make sure

或者，「我怎樣才能確保

that our company changes before we become obsolete

我的公司在被淘汰或危機來臨之前， 已做好了改變呢？」

or are hit by a crisis?"

So, doing one well is difficult.

所以，做好其中一項已經很困難了，

Doing both well as the same time is art --

要同時推動探索和開發， 並把兩項都做好根本就是一門藝術。

pushing both exploration and exploitation.

So one thing we've found

我們觀察到，

is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore

大約只有 2% 的公司， 有能力同時進行有效的探索和開發。

and exploit at the same time, in parallel.

But when they do,

但他們一旦達到，

the payoffs are huge.

就可以收到豐厚的回報。

So we have lots of great examples.

我們有很多這樣的例子。

We have Nestlé creating Nespresso,

例如雀巢公司創造了 Nespresso 膠囊咖啡機，

we have Lego going into animated films,

樂高公司進入動畫電影領域，

Toyota creating the hybrids,

豐田公司生產油電混合車，

Unilever pushing into sustainability --

聯合利華推動永續生活計劃，

there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.

這樣的例子還有很多， 也都帶來很大的利益。

Why is balancing so difficult?

但為什麼兩者之間的平衡這麼困難呢？

I think it's difficult because there are so many traps

我認為原因是有很多陷阱，

that keep us where we are.

讓我們一直故步自封。

So I'll talk about two, but there are many.

我們等等會談到其中兩個， 但其實還有很多。

So let's talk about the perpetual search trap.

所以，讓我們來談談 「不斷搜索」這個陷阱。

We discover something,

我們發現了新東西，

but we don't have the patience or the persistence

但我們沒有足夠的耐心或者毅力

to get at it and make it work.

去把事情做好、做對。

So instead of staying with it, we create something new.

於是我們又去創造新東西， 而不是去深入研究它。

But the same goes for that,

但周而復始，又做一樣的事情，

then we're in the vicious circle

然後陷入一種

of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.

「一直有新發現，卻很無力」 的惡性循環中。

OncoSearch was a good example.

OncoSearch 就是個很好的例子。

A famous example is, of course, Xerox.

另一個很有名的例子， 當然，就是全錄公司了。

But we don't only see this in companies.

但是這現象不只出現在公司裡。

We see this in the public sector as well.

我們在公眾領域上也看到同樣的狀況。

We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,

我們都知道，任何有效的改革方式，

無論在教育、研究、 醫療照顧、甚至國防上

research, health care, even defense,

takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.

都至少要10~15，甚至20年才能奏效。

But still, we change much more often.

但儘管如此，我們還是一變再變。

We really don't give them the chance.

我們並沒有真正給它們機會。

Another trap is the success trap.

另外一個陷阱是「成功的陷阱」。

Facit fell into the success trap.

Facit 公司掉入了成功的陷阱，

They literally held the future in their hands,

他們明明已經掌握了未來，卻看不到。

but they couldn't see it.

They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,

他們對喜歡做的事情相當在行，

that they wouldn't change.

所以不願意改變。

We are like that, too.

我們也是這樣，

When we know something well, it's difficult to change.

當我們對一件事相當在行時， 想改變就變困難了。

Bill Gates has said:

比爾蓋茲曾經說過：

"Success is a lousy teacher.

「成功是個差勁的老師，

It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail."

它誘使我們認為，我們不能失敗。」

That's the challenge with success.

這就是成功帶來的挑戰。

So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.

所以我認為這其中有許多課題 可以讓我們學習

And they apply to our companies.

並運用在公司上。

The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.

第一課是：在危機到來前， 先做好打算。

And any company that's able to innovate

公司如果有能力創新

is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.

其實就等於有能力幫自己的未來買保險。

Netflix -- they could so easily have been content

Netflix 本可輕易滿足於 早期的通路經銷，

with earlier generations of distribution,

but they always -- and I think they will always --

但他們總是──我想未來也會是──

keep pushing for the next battle.

不斷地接受挑戰。

I see other companies that say,

我聽到一些其他公司說：

"I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."

「我將不計代價， 在下個週期的創新中贏得勝利」。

Second one: think in multiple time scales.

第二課：思考不同的時程表，

I'll share a chart with you,

我想分享一張圖表給各位，

and I think it's a wonderful one.

我覺得這張圖表很棒。

Any company we look at,

任何一家我們關注的公司，

taking a one-year perspective

從一年的角度

and looking at the valuation of the company,

來評估公司價值時，

innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.

創新能力通常只佔 30%，

So when we think one year,

所以當我們只注重 「一個年度表現」的時候，

innovation isn't really that important.

創新並不那麼重要。

Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company --

接著看，同樣的公司， 拉長到「十年」來看，

suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.

突然間，創新和改革能力就占了 70%。

But companies can't choose.

但公司別無選擇，

They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.

他們必須投資在這趟旅程中， 才能長期領先。

Third:

第三課：

invite talent.

招募人才。

I don't think it's possible for any of us

我不認為

我們之中任何一個人可以獨自 在探索和開發之間尋找到平衡。

to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.

I think it's a team sport.

我認為這是一項團隊運動，

I think we need to allow challenging.

我認為我們必須允許挑戰的到來。

I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,

我認為願意接受挑戰 就是一間卓越公司的標誌。

and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.

而能夠提出建設性的挑戰， 則是優秀董事會成員的標誌。

I think that's also what good parenting is about.

我認為就像好的父母親 該有的標準一樣。

Last one: be skeptical of success.

最後一課：對成功心存懷疑。

Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,

回想古羅馬時代的勝利遊行也許有用，

when the generals, after a big victory,

當將軍取得一場大勝，

were given their celebration.

準備接受慶祝時，

Riding into Rome on the carriage,

他們坐在馬車上準備進入羅馬，

they always had a companion whispering in their ear,

身邊總會有人在耳邊小聲提醒他們：

"Remember, you're only human."

「別忘了，你只是個平常人而已。」

So I hope I made the point:

所以我希望我有說到重點：

balancing exploration and exploitation

取得探索和開發之間的平衡

has a huge payoff.

會為你帶來巨大的回報。

But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.

但我們也要了解這個過程並不容易。

I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.

我想提出兩個我認為很有用的問題，

First question is, looking at your own company:

第一個問題是：看看你自己的公司。

In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk

在哪些方面你覺得公司可能有風險

of falling into success traps,

會掉入「滿足於既有成功」的陷阱裡，

of just going on autopilot?

或者讓公司就這樣自然前進？

And what can you do to challenge?

你又可以做些什麼來挑戰這一切？

Second question is:

第二個問題是：

When did I explore something new last,

我上次探索新事物時，

and what kind of effect did it have on me?

我得到了什麽啟發？

Is that something I should do more of?

這是我該更加努力的事嗎？

In my case, yes.

對我來說，答案是肯定的。

So let me leave you with this.

最後我想提醒各位，

Whether you're an explorer by nature

無論你生來就是一位探索者，

or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,

還是傾向於專心開發 你所知道的事情，

don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.

別忘了：美麗就在平衡中。

Thank you.

謝謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）