Two reasons companies fail -- and how to avoid them | Knut Haanaes

265,310 views ใƒป 2016-04-22

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Zeeva Livshitz ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:13
Here are two reasons companies fail:
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ื”ื ื” ืฉืชื™ ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ืœื›ืš ืฉื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื ื›ืฉืœื•ืช:
00:17
they only do more of the same,
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ื”ื ืจืง ืขื•ืฉื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืื•ืชื• ื“ื‘ืจ,
00:20
or they only do what's new.
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ืื• ืฉื”ื ืจืง ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืžื” ืฉื—ื“ืฉ.
00:23
To me the real, real solution to quality growth
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ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœื™, ื”ืคื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ื”ืžืžืฉื™ ืœืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืื™ื›ื•ืชื™ืช
00:28
is figuring out the balance between two activities:
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ื”ื•ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ื”ืื™ื–ื•ืŸ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉืชื™ ืคืขื™ืœื•ื™ื•ืช:
00:32
exploration and exploitation.
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ื—ืงืจ ื•ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ.
00:35
Both are necessary,
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ืฉื ื™ื”ื ื ื—ื•ืฆื™ื,
00:36
but it can be too much of a good thing.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ืžื“ื‘ืจ ื˜ื•ื‘.
00:41
Consider Facit.
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ื—ื™ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ืคืืกื™ื˜.
00:43
I'm actually old enough to remember them.
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ืื ื™ ื‘ืขืฆื ืžืกืคื™ืง ื–ืงืŸ ื›ื“ื™ ืœื–ื›ื•ืจ ืื•ืชื.
00:45
Facit was a fantastic company.
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ืคืืกื™ื˜ ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื—ื‘ืจื” ื ื”ื“ืจืช.
00:47
They were born deep in the Swedish forest,
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ื”ื ื ื•ืœื“ื• ืขืžื•ืง ื‘ืชื•ืš ื”ื™ืขืจ ื”ืฉื‘ื“ื™,
00:50
and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.
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ื•ื”ื ืขืฉื• ืืช ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ื ื™ื ื”ืžื›ืื ื™ื™ื ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
00:54
Everybody used them.
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ื›ื•ืœื ื”ืฉืชืžืฉื• ื‘ื”ื.
00:56
And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?
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ื•ืžื” ืคืกื™ื˜ ืขืฉืชื” ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ืŸ ื”ืืœืงื˜ืจื•ื ื™ ื”ื•ืคื™ืข?
01:01
They continued doing exactly the same.
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ื”ื ื”ืžืฉื™ื›ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืืช ืื•ืชื• ื”ื“ื‘ืจ.
01:04
In six months, they went from maximum revenue ...
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ืชื•ืš ืฉื™ืฉื” ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ื”ื ื ืคืœื• ืžื”ื›ื ืกื” ื”ืžืงืกื™ืžืœื™ืช
01:08
and they were gone.
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ื•ื”ื ื ืขืœืžื•.
01:10
Gone.
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ื ืขืœืžื•.
01:11
To me, the irony about the Facit story
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ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ืชื™ ื”ืื™ืจื•ื ื™ื” ืื•ื“ื•ืช ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืฉืœ ืคืืกื™ื˜
01:15
is hearing about the Facit engineers,
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ื–ื” ืœืฉืžื•ืข ืขืœ ื”ืžื”ื ื“ืกื™ื ืฉืœ ืคืืกื™ื˜,
01:19
who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan
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ืฉืงื ื• ื‘ื–ื•ืœ, ืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืืœืงื˜ืจื•ื ื™ื™ื ืงื˜ื ื™ื ื‘ื™ืคืŸ
01:24
that they used to double-check their calculators.
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ืฉื”ื ื”ืฉืชืžืฉื• ื‘ื”ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ื–ื•ืจ ื•ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื.
01:27
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
01:29
Facit did too much exploitation.
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ืคืืกื™ื˜ ืขืฉื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ.
01:32
But exploration can go wild, too.
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ืื‘ืœ ื’ื ื—ืงืจ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืชืคืจืข.
01:34
A few years back,
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ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื,
01:36
I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.
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ืขื‘ื“ืชื™ ื‘ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืคืขื•ืœื” ื”ื“ื•ืง ืœืฆื“ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื‘ื™ื•ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืื™ืจื•ืคืื™ืช.
01:40
Let's call them OncoSearch.
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื•ื ืงืจื ืœื”ื ืื•ื ืงื•-ืกืจืฅ'.
01:42
The company was brilliant.
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ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืžื‘ืจื™ืงื”.
01:44
They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,
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ื”ื™ื• ืœื”ื ื™ื™ืฉื•ืžื™ื ืฉื”ื‘ื˜ื™ื—ื• ืœืื‘ื—ืŸ, ืืคื™ืœื• ืœืจืคื,
01:49
certain forms of blood cancer.
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ืกื•ื’ื™ื ืžืกื•ื™ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื”ื“ื.
01:52
Every day was about creating something new.
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ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื ื”ื™ื” ืขืœ ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืžืฉื”ื• ื—ื“ืฉ.
01:55
They were extremely innovative,
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ื”ื ื”ื™ื• ื—ื“ืฉื ื™ื™ื ืžืื•ื“,
01:58
and the mantra was, "When we only get it right,"
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ื•ื”ืžื ื˜ืจื” ื”ื™ืชื”, " ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื—ื ื• ืจืง ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ื ื›ื•ืŸ,"
02:01
or even, "We want it perfect."
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ืื• ืืคื™ืœื•, "ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ืžื•ืฉืœื."
02:04
The sad thing is,
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ืžื” ืฉืขืฆื•ื‘ ื”ื•ื,
02:06
before they became perfect --
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ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ื ื”ืคื›ื• ืžื•ืฉืœืžื™ื -
02:08
even good enough --
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ืืคื™ืœื• ืžืกืคื™ืง ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื - -
02:10
they became obsolete.
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ื”ื ื›ื‘ืจ ืœื ื”ื™ื• ืจืœื•ื•ื ื˜ื™ื™ื.
02:13
OncoSearch did too much exploration.
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ืื•ื ืงื•-ืกืจืฅ' ืขืฉื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ื—ืงืจ.
02:17
I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,
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ืฉืžืขืชื™ ืœืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืขืœ ื—ืงืจ ื•ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ืœืคื ื™ ื› -15 ืฉื ื™ื,
02:23
when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.
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ื›ืฉืขื‘ื“ืชื™ ื›ื—ื•ืงืจ ืžื‘ืงืจ ื‘ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืช ืกื˜ื ืคื•ืจื“.
02:27
The founder of the idea is Jim March.
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ืžื™ื™ืกื“ ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื’'ื™ื ืžืจืก.
02:30
And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.
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ื•ื‘ืฉื‘ื™ืœื™ ื›ื•ื—ื• ืฉืœ ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ื”ืžืขืฉื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื•.
02:35
Exploration.
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ื—ืงืจ.
02:36
Exploration is about coming up with what's new.
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ื—ืงืจ ืžืฉืžืขื•, ืœื‘ื•ื ืขื ืžืฉื”ื• ื—ื“ืฉ.
02:40
It's about search,
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ื–ื” ืขืœ ื—ื™ืคื•ืฉ,
02:42
it's about discovery,
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ื–ื” ืขืœ ืชื’ืœื™ืช,
02:43
it's about new products,
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ื–ื” ืขืœ ืžื•ืฆืจื™ื ื—ื“ืฉื™ื,
02:45
it's about new innovations.
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ื–ื” ืขืœ ื”ื—ื™ื“ื•ืฉื™ื.
02:47
It's about changing our frontiers.
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ื–ื” ืขืœ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ื”ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•
02:51
Our heroes are people who have done exploration:
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ื”ื’ื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืœื ื• ื”ื ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืขืฉื• ื—ื™ืคื•ืฉื™ื:
02:54
Madame Curie,
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ืžืื“ืื ืงื™ืจื™,
02:56
Picasso,
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ืคื™ืงืืกื•,
02:57
Neil Armstrong,
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ื ื™ืœ ืืจืžืกื˜ืจื•ื ื’
02:58
Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.
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ืกืจ ืื“ืžื•ื ื“ ื”ื™ืœืืจื™, ื•ื›ื•'.
03:01
I come from Norway;
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ืื ื™ ื‘ื ืžื ื•ืจื‘ื’ื™ื”;
03:03
all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.
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ื›ืœ ื”ื’ื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืœื ื• ื”ื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื, ื•ื”ื ืจืื•ื™ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื›ืืœื”.
03:09
We all know that exploration is risky.
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื—ื™ืคื•ืฉื™ื ื”ื ืžืกื•ื›ื ื™ื.
03:12
We don't know the answers,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืืช ื”ืชืฉื•ื‘ื•ืช,
03:14
we don't know if we're going to find them,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœืžืฆื•ื ืื•ืชืŸ,
03:16
and we know that the risks are high.
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื ื”ื ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื™ื.
03:18
Exploitation is the opposite.
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ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ื”ื•ื ื”ื”ืคืš ืžื–ื”.
03:20
Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have
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ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ื–ื” ืœืงื—ืช ืืช ื”ื™ื“ืข ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื•, ืืช ืžื” ืฉื™ื“ื•ืข ืœื ื•
03:23
and making good, better.
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ื•ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืื•ืชื• ื˜ื•ื‘, ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
03:26
Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.
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ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ื–ื” ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœืจื›ื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืœื ืกื•ืข ื‘ื–ืžืŸ.
03:29
It's about making good products faster and cheaper.
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ื”ื•ื ื ื•ืขื“ ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื”ืžื•ืฆืจื™ื ืฉืœื ื• ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื ื•ื–ื•ืœื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ.
03:34
Exploitation is not risky --
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ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ืื™ื ื• ื‘ืจ ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ --
03:37
in the short term.
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ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ.
03:39
But if we only exploit,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืจืง ืžื ืฆืœื™ื
03:41
it's very risky in the long term.
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ื–ื” ืžืื•ื“ ืžืกื•ื›ืŸ ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš.
03:44
And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups
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ื•ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืœื›ื•ืœื ื• ื™ืฉ ื–ื™ื›ืจื•ื ื•ืช ืžืœื”ืงื•ืช ืคื•ืค ืžืคื•ืจืกืžื•ืช
03:48
who keep singing the same songs again and again,
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ืฉืžืžืฉื™ื›ื™ื ืœืฉื™ืจ ืืช ืื•ืชื ืฉื™ืจื™ื ืฉื•ื‘ ื•ืฉื•ื‘,
03:51
until they become obsolete or even pathetic.
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ืขื“ ืฉื”ื ื ืขืฉื™ื ืžื™ื•ืฉื ื™ื ืื• ืืคื™ืœื• ืคืชื˜ื™ื™ื.
03:56
That's the risk of exploitation.
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ื–ื”ื• ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ.
04:00
So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.
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ืื– ืื ืื ื• ืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืคืจืกืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื” ืœื–ืžืŸ ืืจื•ืš, ืื ื• ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื.
04:05
If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.
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ืื ืื ื• ืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืคืจืกืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื” ืœื–ืžืŸ ืงืฆืจ, ืื ื• ืžื ืฆืœื™ื.
04:09
Small children, they explore all day.
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ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืงื˜ื ื™ื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ื›ืœ ื”ื™ื•ื.
04:12
All day it's about exploration.
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ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื ื–ื” ืขืœ ื—ืงืจ.
04:15
As we grow older,
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ื›ืฉืื ื• ืžืชื‘ื’ืจื™ื,
04:16
we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.
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ืื ื• ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ืคื—ื•ืช ื›ื™ ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ื™ื“ืข ืœื ืฆืœ ืื•ืชื•.
04:21
The same goes for companies.
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ื›ื "ืœ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช.
04:24
Companies become, by nature, less innovative
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ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื ืขืฉื•ืช ืžื˜ื‘ืขืŸ, ืคื—ื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื ื™ื•ืช
04:28
as they become more competent.
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ื›ื›ืœ ืฉื”ืŸ ื ืขืฉื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื™ื•ืžื ื•ืช.
04:31
And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.
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ื•ื–ื” ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ืžื“ืื™ื’ ืžืื•ื“ ืืช ื”ืžื ื›"ืœื™ื.
04:35
And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืฉื•ืžืข ืœืขืชื™ื ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช ืฉืืœื•ืช ืฉืžื ื•ืกื—ื•ืช ื‘ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื•ืช.
04:39
For example,
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ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”,
04:41
"How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?"
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"ืื™ืš ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ื‘ื” ื‘ืขืช ืœื ื”ืœ ืืช ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื™ ื•ื’ื ืœื”ืžืฆื™ื ืื•ืชื” ืžื—ื“ืฉ?"
04:46
Or, "How can I make sure
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ืื•, "ืื™ืš ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื•ื•ื“ื
04:48
that our company changes before we become obsolete
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ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื ื• ืžืฉืชื ื” ืœืคื ื™ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืชื™ื™ืฉื ื™ื
04:52
or are hit by a crisis?"
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ืื• ื ืคื’ืขื™ื ืžืžืฉื‘ืจ?"
04:55
So, doing one well is difficult.
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ืื– ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื˜ื•ื‘ ืืช ื”ืื—ื“ ื–ื” ืงืฉื”.
04:58
Doing both well as the same time is art --
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ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ืฉื ื™ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื˜ื•ื‘ ื’ื ื™ื—ื“, ื–ื• ืืžื ื•ืช --
05:01
pushing both exploration and exploitation.
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ืœื“ื—ื•ืฃ ืงื“ื™ืžื” ื”ืŸ ืืช ื”ื—ืงืจ ื•ื”ืŸ ืืช ื”ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ.
05:05
So one thing we've found
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ืื– ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ื“ ืฉืžืฆืื ื•
05:06
is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืจืง ื›-2% ืžื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ืœื•ืช ืœื—ืงื•ืจ ื•ืœื ืฆืœ
05:13
and exploit at the same time, in parallel.
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ื‘ื™ืขื™ืœื•ืช ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื–ืžืŸ, ื‘ืžืงื‘ื™ืœ.
05:17
But when they do,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืฉื”ืŸ ืขื•ืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช,
05:19
the payoffs are huge.
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ื”ืชื’ืžื•ืœ ื”ื•ื ืขื ืง.
05:22
So we have lots of great examples.
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ืื– ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื“ื•ื’ืžืื•ืช ืžืฆื•ื™ื ื•ืช.
05:24
We have Nestlรฉ creating Nespresso,
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ื ืกื˜ืœื” ื™ื•ืฆืจืช ื ืกืคืจืกื•,
05:27
we have Lego going into animated films,
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืืช ืœื’ื• ื ื›ื ืกืช ืœืกืจื˜ื™ ืื ื™ืžืฆื™ื”,
05:30
Toyota creating the hybrids,
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ื˜ื•ื™ื•ื˜ื” ื™ื•ืฆืจืช ืืช ื”ื”ื™ื‘ืจื™ื“ื™ื,
05:32
Unilever pushing into sustainability --
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ื™ื•ื ื™ืœื•ื•ืจ ื“ื•ื—ืคืช ืœื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืงื™ื™ืžื•ืช --
05:35
there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ื“ื•ื’ืžืื•ืช, ื•ื”ื™ืชืจื•ื ื•ืช ื”ื ืขื ืงื™ื™ื.
05:39
Why is balancing so difficult?
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ืžื“ื•ืข ื”ืื™ื–ื•ืŸ ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืงืฉื”?
05:42
I think it's difficult because there are so many traps
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื–ื” ืงืฉื” ื›ื™ ื™ืฉ ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžืœื›ื•ื“ื•ืช
05:45
that keep us where we are.
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ืฉืžืฉืื™ืจื•ืช ืื•ืชื ื• ื‘ืžืงื•ื ื‘ื• ืื ื• ื ืžืฆืื™ื.
05:47
So I'll talk about two, but there are many.
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ืื– ืื ื™ ืื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืฉืชื™ื™ื, ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉื ืŸ ืจื‘ื•ืช.
05:51
So let's talk about the perpetual search trap.
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ืื– ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืžืœื›ื•ื“ืช ื”ื—ื™ืคื•ืฉ ื”ืชืžื™ื“ื™.
05:54
We discover something,
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ืื ื• ืžื’ืœื™ื ืžืฉื”ื•,
05:56
but we don't have the patience or the persistence
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ืื‘ืœ ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ืกื‘ืœื ื•ืช ืื• ื”ื”ืชืžื“ื”
05:59
to get at it and make it work.
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ืœื”ืฉืœื™ื ื–ืืช, ื•ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื–ื” ืœืขื‘ื•ื“.
06:01
So instead of staying with it, we create something new.
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ืื– ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืœื”ื™ืฉืืจ ืขื ื–ื”, ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ืฆืจื™ื ืžืฉื”ื• ื—ื“ืฉ.
06:04
But the same goes for that,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื "ืœ ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื–ื”,
06:06
then we're in the vicious circle
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ืžืขื’ืœ ืงืกืžื™ื
06:07
of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.
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ืฉืœ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืœื‘ื•ื ืขื ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ืื‘ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืชื•ืกื›ืœื™ื.
06:12
OncoSearch was a good example.
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ืื•ื ืงื•-ืกืจืฅ' ื”ื™ืชื” ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื”.
06:14
A famous example is, of course, Xerox.
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ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืžืคื•ืจืกืžืช ื”ื™ื, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื–ื™ืจื•ืงืก.
06:18
But we don't only see this in companies.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืจื•ืื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ืจืง ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช.
06:20
We see this in the public sector as well.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ื’ื ื‘ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™.
06:23
We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื›ื™ ืœื›ืœ ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืจืคื•ืจืžื” ื™ืขื™ืœื” ื‘ื—ื™ื ื•ืš,
06:29
research, health care, even defense,
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ืžื—ืงืจ, ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ื•ืืคื™ืœื• ื‘ื™ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ,
06:31
takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.
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ืœื•ืงื— 10, 15, ืื•ืœื™ 20 ืฉื ื” ืœืขื‘ื•ื“.
06:35
But still, we change much more often.
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ืื‘ืœ ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉื ื™ื ืœืขืชื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืงืจื•ื‘ื•ืช.
06:39
We really don't give them the chance.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ืืžืช ืœื ื ื•ืชื ื™ื ืœื”ืŸ ืืช ื”ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ืช.
06:42
Another trap is the success trap.
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ืžืœื›ื•ื“ืช ืื—ืจืช ื”ื™ื ืžืœื›ื•ื“ืช ื”ื”ืฆืœื—ื”.
06:46
Facit fell into the success trap.
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ืคืืกื™ื˜ ื ืคืœื• ืœืžืœื›ื•ื“ืช ื”ื”ืฆืœื—ื”.
06:50
They literally held the future in their hands,
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ื”ื ืžืžืฉ ื”ื—ื–ื™ืงื• ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“ ื‘ื™ื“ื™ื”ื,
06:53
but they couldn't see it.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ืœื ื™ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื–ื”.
06:54
They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,
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ื”ื ื”ื™ื• ืคืฉื•ื˜ ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื˜ื•ื‘ื™ื ื‘ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืื”ื‘ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช,
06:58
that they wouldn't change.
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ืฉื”ื ืœื ื—ื•ืœืœื• ืฉื™ื ื•ื™.
07:01
We are like that, too.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื›ืืœื” ื’ื ื›ืŸ.
07:02
When we know something well, it's difficult to change.
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ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื˜ื•ื‘, ืงืฉื” ืœืฉื ื•ืช.
07:06
Bill Gates has said:
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ื‘ื™ืœ ื’ื™ื™ื˜ืก ืืžืจ:
07:09
"Success is a lousy teacher.
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"ื”ืฆืœื—ื” ื”ื™ื ืžื•ืจื” ื’ืจื•ืข.
07:12
It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail."
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ื”ื™ื ืžืคืชื” ืื•ืชื ื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื™ื›ืฉืœ."
07:16
That's the challenge with success.
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ื–ื” ื”ืืชื’ืจ ื‘ื”ืฆืœื—ื”.
07:19
So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.
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ืื– ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื™ืฉื ื ื›ืžื” ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ื, ื•ืฉื”ื ื—ืœื™ื ืขืœื™ื ื•.
07:23
And they apply to our companies.
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ื•ื”ื ื—ืœื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
07:25
The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.
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ื”ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื: ื”ืงื“ื™ืžื• ืืช ื”ืžืฉื‘ืจ.
07:29
And any company that's able to innovate
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ื•ื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœื—ื“ืฉ
07:32
is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.
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ืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœืžืขืฉื” ื’ื ืœืจื›ื•ืฉ ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ื— ื‘ืขืชื™ื“
07:36
Netflix -- they could so easily have been content
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ื ื˜ืคืœื™ืงืก -- ื”ื ื™ื›ืœื• ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื‘ืงืœื•ืช ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืจื•ืฆื™ื
07:39
with earlier generations of distribution,
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ืขื ื“ื•ืจื•ืช ืงื•ื“ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ืชืคื•ืฆื”,
07:42
but they always -- and I think they will always --
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ืชืžื™ื“ -- ื•ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ื ืชืžื™ื“ --
07:45
keep pushing for the next battle.
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ื™ืžืฉื™ื›ื• ืœื“ื—ื•ืฃ ืœืงืจืืช ื”ืงืจื‘ ื”ื‘ื.
07:47
I see other companies that say,
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ืื ื™ ืจื•ืื” ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืื—ืจื•ืช ืฉืื•ืžืจื•ืช,
07:49
"I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."
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"ืื ื™ ืื ืฆื— ื‘ืžื—ื–ื•ืจ ื”ื‘ื ืฉืœ ื—ื™ื“ื•ืฉื™ื, ื•ืœื ืžืฉื ื” ืžื” ืฉื™ื™ื“ืจืฉ."
07:55
Second one: think in multiple time scales.
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ื”ืฉื ื™: ื—ื™ืฉื‘ื• ื‘ืคืจืงื™ ื–ืžืŸ ืžืจื•ื‘ื™ื.
07:58
I'll share a chart with you,
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ืื—ืœื•ืง ืื™ืชื›ื ืชืจืฉื™ื,
08:00
and I think it's a wonderful one.
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ื•ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ื•ื ื ืคืœื.
08:02
Any company we look at,
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ื›ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉื ืชื‘ื•ื ืŸ ื‘ื”,
08:04
taking a one-year perspective
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ื›ืฉืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืคืจืกืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื ื” ืื—ืช
08:06
and looking at the valuation of the company,
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ื•ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื ื‘ื”ืขืจื›ืช ื”ืฉื•ื•ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื”,
08:08
innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.
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ื—ื“ืฉื ื•ืช ื‘ื“ืจืš ื›ืœืœ ืžื•ืขืจื›ืช ืจืง ื‘ื› -30 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื.
08:12
So when we think one year,
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ืื– ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืฉื ื” ืื—ืช,
08:13
innovation isn't really that important.
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ื—ื“ืฉื ื•ืช ืื™ื ื” ืžืžืฉ ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื”.
08:16
Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company --
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ื ื•ืขื• ืงื“ื™ืžื”, ืงื—ื• ืคืจืกืคืงื˜ื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ 10 ืฉื ื™ื ืขืœ ืื•ืชื” ื—ื‘ืจื” --
08:20
suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.
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ืœืคืชืข, ื—ื“ืฉื ื•ืช ื•ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ืœื—ื“ืฉ ืžื•ืขืจื›ื•ืช ื‘ื›-70 ืื—ื•ื–ื™ื.
08:26
But companies can't choose.
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ืื‘ืœ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœื‘ื—ื•ืจ.
08:27
They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.
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ื”ืŸ ืฆืจื™ื›ื•ืช ืœืžืžืŸ ืืช ื”ืžืกืข ื•ืœื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœ ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš.
08:32
Third:
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ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™:
08:34
invite talent.
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ื”ื–ืžื™ื ื• ื›ื™ืฉืจื•ืŸ.
08:35
I don't think it's possible for any of us
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ืื ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื–ื” ืืคืฉืจื™ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืžืื™ืชื ื•
08:38
to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.
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ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ืœ ืœืื–ืŸ ื—ืงืจ ื•ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ ื‘ืขืฆืžื ื•.
08:43
I think it's a team sport.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื–ื” ืกืคื•ืจื˜ ืงื‘ื•ืฆืชื™.
08:44
I think we need to allow challenging.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืืคืฉืจ ืืชื’ื•ืจ.
08:48
I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ื—ื•ืชื ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจื” ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ื”ื•ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืคืชื•ื—ื” ืœืืชื’ื•ืจ,
08:53
and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.
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ื•ื”ื—ื•ืชื ืฉืœ ืœื•ื— ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื”ื•ื ืืชื’ื•ืจ ื‘ื•ื ื”.
08:58
I think that's also what good parenting is about.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื–ื” ืžืืคื™ื™ืŸ ื’ื ื”ื•ืจื•ืช ื˜ื•ื‘ื”.
09:02
Last one: be skeptical of success.
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ืื—ืจื•ืŸ: ื”ื™ื• ืกืงืคื˜ื™ื™ื ื‘ื”ืฆืœื—ื”.
09:06
Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,
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ืื•ืœื™ ื–ื” ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉื™ ืœื”ืกืชื›ืœ ืื—ื•ืจื” ืขืœ ืฆืขื“ื•ืช ื”ื ื™ืฆื—ื•ืŸ ื‘ืจื•ืžื,
09:12
when the generals, after a big victory,
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ื›ืืฉืจ ื”ืžืฆื‘ื™ืื™ื, ืื—ืจื™ ื ื™ืฆื—ื•ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœ,
09:16
were given their celebration.
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ื—ื’ื’ื• ืืช ื”ื ื™ืฆื—ื•ืŸ ืฉืœื”ื.
09:18
Riding into Rome on the carriage,
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ื›ืฉื”ื ื ื›ื ืกื™ื ืœืจื•ืžื ื‘ื›ืจื›ืจื•ืชื™ื”ื,
09:21
they always had a companion whispering in their ear,
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ืชืžื™ื“ ื”ื™ื” ืœื”ื ื‘ืŸ ืœื•ื•ื™ื” ืฉืœื—ืฉ ื‘ืื•ื–ื ื™ื”ื,
09:25
"Remember, you're only human."
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"ื–ื™ื›ืจื•, ืืชื ืจืง ื‘ื ื™ ืื ื•ืฉ."
09:29
So I hope I made the point:
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ืื– ืื ื™ ืžืงื•ื•ื” ืฉื”ืขืœื™ืชื™ ืืช ื”ื ืงื•ื“ื”:
09:32
balancing exploration and exploitation
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ืœืื™ื–ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื—ืงืจ ื•ื ื™ืฆื•ืœ
09:35
has a huge payoff.
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ื™ืฉ ืชื’ืžื•ืœ ืขื ืง
09:37
But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืงืฉื”, ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ื“ืขื™ื.
09:40
I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.
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ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืจืง ืœื”ืฆื‘ื™ืข ืขืœ 2 ืฉืืœื•ืช ืฉืœื“ืขืชื™ ื”ืŸ ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉื™ื•ืช.
09:45
First question is, looking at your own company:
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ืฉืืœื” ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื”ื™ื, ื›ืฉืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ืฉืœื›ื:
09:49
In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk
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ื‘ืื™ืœื• ืชื—ื•ืžื™ื ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ
09:53
of falling into success traps,
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ืฉืœ ื ืคื™ืœื” ืœืžืœื›ื•ื“ืช ื”ื”ืฆืœื—ื”,
09:56
of just going on autopilot?
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ืฉืœ ืคืฉื•ื˜ ืœืœื›ืช ืขืœ ื˜ื™ื™ืก ืื•ื˜ื•ืžื˜ื™
09:59
And what can you do to challenge?
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ื•ืžื” ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœืืชื’ืจ?
10:03
Second question is:
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ืฉืืœื” ืฉื ื™ื™ื” ื”ื™ื:
10:06
When did I explore something new last,
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ืžืชื™ ื—ืงืจืชื™ ืžืฉื”ื• ื—ื“ืฉ ืœืื—ืจื•ื ื”,
10:09
and what kind of effect did it have on me?
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ื•ืื™ื–ื” ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ื”ืฉืคืขื” ื”ื™ื” ืœื–ื” ืขืœื™?
10:12
Is that something I should do more of?
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ื”ืื ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืขืœื™ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ?
10:15
In my case, yes.
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ื‘ืžืงืจื” ืฉืœื™, ื›ืŸ.
10:18
So let me leave you with this.
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ืื– ืชื ื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืฉืื™ืจ ืืชื›ื ืขื ื–ื”,
10:20
Whether you're an explorer by nature
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืืชื ื—ืงืจื ื™ื ืžื˜ื‘ืขื›ื
10:23
or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,
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ืื• ืื ืืชื ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ืœื ืฆืœ ืืช ืžื” ืฉืืชื ื›ื‘ืจ ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื.
10:27
don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.
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ืืœ ืชืฉื›ื—ื•: ื”ื™ื•ืคื™ ื ืžืฆื ื‘ืื™ื–ื•ืŸ.
10:33
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื”.
10:34
(Applause)
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(ืชืฉื•ืื•ืช)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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