Two reasons companies fail -- and how to avoid them | Knut Haanaes

翻译人员: Dan Wang 校对人员: Sophie Anderson

Here are two reasons companies fail:

公司失败一般有两种原因：

they only do more of the same,

他们总是做一样的东西，

or they only do what's new.

要不然就是他们只关注新的东西。

To me the real, real solution to quality growth

对我来说，真正解决品质升级的办法

is figuring out the balance between two activities:

不外乎在两种行为中找到平衡

exploration and exploitation.

探索和开发

Both are necessary,

两者都甚为必要

but it can be too much of a good thing.

但是太多不一定是好事

Consider Facit.

想想Facit公司

I'm actually old enough to remember them.

我已经老到能记住它的程度了

Facit was a fantastic company.

Facit是一个极好的公司

They were born deep in the Swedish forest,

在瑞典森林深处诞生

and they made the best mechanical calculators in the world.

做出了世界上最好的机械计算器

Everybody used them.

人人都用他们的计算器

And what did Facit do when the electronic calculator came along?

但电子计算器开始普及的时候Facit做了什么呢

They continued doing exactly the same.

他们继续做一样的事情（生产机械计算器）

In six months, they went from maximum revenue ...

六个月内，他们从最佳收益

and they were gone.

落到公司消失这般田地

Gone.

直至泯灭

To me, the irony about the Facit story

对我来说，关于Facit有一点讽刺的是

is hearing about the Facit engineers,

听说Facit工程师

who had bought cheap, small electronic calculators in Japan

他们从日本买来便宜，小型的计算器

that they used to double-check their calculators.

来确保自己生产出的计算器准确无误

(Laughter)

（大笑）

Facit did too much exploitation.

Facit过于注重开发了

But exploration can go wild, too.

然而探索有时候也会出问题

A few years back,

几年以前

I worked closely alongside a European biotech company.

我和一个欧洲的生物科技公司紧密合作

Let's call them OncoSearch.

暂且称呼为OncoSearch吧

The company was brilliant.

这家公司非常卓越

They had applications that promised to diagnose, even cure,

他们有保证能诊断出、甚至有望治疗

certain forms of blood cancer.

某些血液癌症的方法

Every day was about creating something new.

天天都在创造新的东西

They were extremely innovative,

他们极具创新性

and the mantra was, "When we only get it right,"

公司的口头禅是“我们不只是把事做对”

or even, "We want it perfect."

甚至是“我们想要完美”

The sad thing is,

然而不幸的是

before they became perfect --

在他们成为完美之前

even good enough --

甚至是足够好之前

they became obsolete.

他们已经过时了

OncoSearch did too much exploration.

OncoSearch过于注重开发了

I first heard about exploration and exploitation about 15 years ago,

我十五年前，作为斯坦福大学的访问学者之时

when I worked as a visiting scholar at Stanford University.

第一次听到探索和探险两个说法

The founder of the idea is Jim March.

吉姆-玛驰首先提出了这种思想

And to me the power of the idea is its practicality.

对我来说这种思想最厉害之处是它的可行性

Exploration.

探索

Exploration is about coming up with what's new.

探索是一个创新的过程

It's about search,

和搜索有关

it's about discovery,

和发现有关

it's about new products,

和新产品有关

it's about new innovations.

和创新有关

It's about changing our frontiers.

和改变我们的边界有关

Our heroes are people who have done exploration:

我们的英雄都是那些探索家

Madame Curie,

居里夫人

Picasso,

毕加索

Neil Armstrong,

尼尔·阿姆斯特朗

Sir Edmund Hillary, etc.

埃德蒙德·希拉里，等等

I come from Norway;

我是挪威人

all our heroes are explorers, and they deserve to be.

我们那所有英雄都是探险家，而且他们值得被称作探险家

We all know that exploration is risky.

我们都知道探索是存在风险的

We don't know the answers,

我们不知道答案

we don't know if we're going to find them,

不清楚是否可以找到答案

and we know that the risks are high.

而且我们知道风险很大

Exploitation is the opposite.

开发则正好相反

Exploitation is taking the knowledge we have

开发是利用我们现有的知识

and making good, better.

然后让他们变得更好

Exploitation is about making our trains run on time.

开发是关于让我们的火车准点出发

It's about making good products faster and cheaper.

这是有关于更快生产出更便宜的产品

Exploitation is not risky --

开发没有风险

in the short term.

至少短时内

But if we only exploit,

但是如果我们只是开发

it's very risky in the long term.

长远来说风险极大

And I think we all have memories of the famous pop groups

而且我认为我们都知道一些有名的流行乐团

who keep singing the same songs again and again,

一直唱一样的歌 循环往复，周而复始

until they become obsolete or even pathetic.

直到他们过时甚至有些可怜为止

That's the risk of exploitation.

这就是过度开发的风险

So if we take a long-term perspective, we explore.

所以，在长远的角度的来说，我们要探索

If we take a short-term perspective, we exploit.

对短时间来说，我们开发

Small children, they explore all day.

小孩子们天天探索新事物

All day it's about exploration.

每天都在探索

As we grow older,

随着年龄的增长

we explore less because we have more knowledge to exploit on.

更多的知识等待我们开发，因此我们不怎么探索了

The same goes for companies.

对于公司来说也一样

Companies become, by nature, less innovative

公司如果越来越有能力

as they become more competent.

自然而然会逐渐变得不那么有创新性

And this is, of course, a big worry to CEOs.

当然这对于CEO们来说是令他们担心的事情

And I hear very often questions phrased in different ways.

而且我常常听到各种各样这样的问题

For example,

举个例子

"How can I both effectively run and reinvent my company?"

”如何同时有效的运营和重新改造我的公司？“

Or, "How can I make sure

或者，“我怎么才能保证

that our company changes before we become obsolete

我的公司在过时或者危机来临之前改变？”

or are hit by a crisis?"

So, doing one well is difficult.

所以，把探索和开发之中的一项做好很难

Doing both well as the same time is art --

同时把两项都做好是一门艺术

pushing both exploration and exploitation.

去同时探索和开发

So one thing we've found

我们发现

is only about two percent of companies are able to effectively explore

大约只有百分之二的公司有能力同时进行探索和开发

and exploit at the same time, in parallel.

But when they do,

但是当他们这么做了的时候

the payoffs are huge.

回报是巨大的

So we have lots of great examples.

我们有很多这样的例子

We have Nestlé creating Nespresso,

例如雀巢公司创造奈斯派索咖啡机

we have Lego going into animated films,

乐高公司进入动画电影领域

Toyota creating the hybrids,

丰田公司生产混合动力汽车

Unilever pushing into sustainability --

联合利华注重可持续发展

there are lots of examples, and the benefits are huge.

这样的例子还有很多，而且这样做的好处是巨大的

Why is balancing so difficult?

但为什么平衡两者这么难呢？

I think it's difficult because there are so many traps

我认为原因是有很多陷阱

that keep us where we are.

使我们不能做我们自己

So I'll talk about two, but there are many.

我已经讲了两个失败的例子，然而这样的例子还有很多

So let's talk about the perpetual search trap.

首先，让我们来说说“不断搜索“这个陷阱

We discover something,

我们发现了一些东西

but we don't have the patience or the persistence

但是我们没有足够的耐心或者毅力

to get at it and make it work.

去把事情做对

So instead of staying with it, we create something new.

因此我们又创造了新的东西，而不是继续做我们已经在做的事情

But the same goes for that,

但是对这件新的东西我们又做了一样的事情（喜新厌旧）

then we're in the vicious circle

一直下去我们陷入了恶性循环

of actually coming up with ideas but being frustrated.

尽管确实在创新然而还是很失望

OncoSearch was a good example.

OncoSearch就是这样

A famous example is, of course, Xerox.

另一个很有名的例子当然是施乐公司

But we don't only see this in companies.

但是我们不只在公司里看到这种现象

We see this in the public sector as well.

公共服务里也是这样

We all know that any kind of effective reform of education,

我们都知道任何形式的改革在教育，

research, health care, even defense,

研究，医保，甚至国防

takes 10, 15, maybe 20 years to work.

都需要至少10,15，甚至20年

But still, we change much more often.

但是事实上我们改变的更频繁

We really don't give them the chance.

我们其实没有给很多改变甚至一次机会（去看他们能不能成功）

Another trap is the success trap.

另外一个陷阱是”既有的成功“

Facit fell into the success trap.

Facit公司就是这样

They literally held the future in their hands,

他们明明已经拥有了未来

but they couldn't see it.

但是他们却看不到

They were simply so good at making what they loved doing,

他们太擅长做自己喜欢做的事情

that they wouldn't change.

这使得他们不予改变

We are like that, too.

我们也是这样

When we know something well, it's difficult to change.

当你把一件事情做得很好的时候，去改变和创新是很难的

Bill Gates has said:

比尔·盖茨曾经说过

"Success is a lousy teacher.

成功是一个讨厌的老师

It seduces us into thinking we cannot fail."

让我们幻想我们从来不会失败

That's the challenge with success.

这就是既有的成功带来的挑战

So I think there are some lessons, and I think they apply to us.

因此我认为有很多这样的例子可以教育我们

And they apply to our companies.

并且适用于公司

The first lesson is: get ahead of the crisis.

第一课是：在危机到来前做打算

And any company that's able to innovate

任何持续创新的公司

is actually able to also buy an insurance in the future.

其实都是在为公司的未来买保险

Netflix -- they could so easily have been content

Netflix本可以很容易满足于它早年的分配战略

with earlier generations of distribution,

but they always -- and I think they will always --

然而它-我也认为它会

keep pushing for the next battle.

继续一次又一次的挑战自己

I see other companies that say,

我听到一些公司说

"I'll win the next innovation cycle, whatever it takes."

“下一次创新大潮（周期）来的时候无论如何我会赢”

Second one: think in multiple time scales.

第二课：思考多个时间标度

I'll share a chart with you,

我会分享一张表格给你

and I think it's a wonderful one.

我认为这张表很好

Any company we look at,

任何一家公司我所注意到的

taking a one-year perspective

站在“年”的角度

and looking at the valuation of the company,

来分析公司的价值

innovation typically accounts for only about 30 percent.

创新大致只有百分之三十

So when we think one year,

所以当我们只考虑每“年”的时候

innovation isn't really that important.

创新不那么重要

Move ahead, take a 10-year perspective on the same company --

但向前看，在一个”十年“的周期里

suddenly, innovation and ability to renew account for 70 percent.

创新和更新占到了百分之七十

But companies can't choose.

但是公司们无法选择

They need to fund the journey and lead the long term.

他们需要筹集资金而且长期保持领先

Third:

第三课

invite talent.

邀请有才之人加入

I don't think it's possible for any of us

我不认为

to be able to balance exploration and exploitation by ourselves.

我们之中任何一个人可以独自在探索和开发之间找寻平衡

I think it's a team sport.

我认为这是一个团队竞技项目

I think we need to allow challenging.

我认为我们需要允许挑战发生

I think the mark of a great company is being open to be challenged,

衡量一个公司是否伟大的标准是这家公司是否愿意被挑战

and the mark of a good corporate board is to constructively challenge.

衡量一个董事会是否好的标准是它是否会建设性地去挑战

I think that's also what good parenting is about.

我认为这个过程像父母监护儿女一样

Last one: be skeptical of success.

最后一课：怀疑成功

Maybe it's useful to think back at the old triumph marches in Rome,

想想古罗马的胜利游行吧

when the generals, after a big victory,

当将军在胜利之后

were given their celebration.

接受庆祝

Riding into Rome on the carriage,

坐在马车上进罗马城

they always had a companion whispering in their ear,

他们身边总会有人在他们耳边小声说道

"Remember, you're only human."

“别忘了，你只是个平常人而已”

So I hope I made the point:

所以我希望你们了解我的观点

balancing exploration and exploitation

把探索和开发平衡之后

has a huge payoff.

回报是巨大的

But it's difficult, and we need to be conscious.

但是我们也要意识到这个过程是很困难的

I want to just point out two questions that I think are useful.

我想指出两个有用的问题

First question is, looking at your own company:

第一个问题：看看你自己的公司

In which areas do you see that the company is at the risk

在哪些方面你觉得你的公司有风险

of falling into success traps,

掉入“满足于既有成功”的陷阱

of just going on autopilot?

或者就让公司自然前行？

And what can you do to challenge?

而且你能做什么去挑战自我？

Second question is:

第二个问题是

When did I explore something new last,

我上次探索新事物是什么时候

and what kind of effect did it have on me?

那次探索对我有什么启发？

Is that something I should do more of?

有什么我可以更进一步的事情吗？

In my case, yes.

对我来说答案是肯定的

So let me leave you with this.

所以我让你们想想

Whether you're an explorer by nature

不管你生来就是一个探险者

or whether you tend to exploit what you already know,

或者是一个对既有资源的开发者

don't forget: the beauty is in the balance.

别忘了平衡这两者是一种艺术

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）