The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ... | Elon Musk

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Aniko Kovac Lektor: Boško Eraković

Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream

Kris Anderson: Ilone, kakav suludi san

would persuade you to think of trying

vas je doveo do toga da pomislite da pokušate

to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?

da uđete u auto industriju i napravite potpuno električni automobil?

Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.

Ilon Mask: To se desilo još dok sam bio na fakultetu.

I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely

Razmišljao sam o problemima koji će najverovatnije

to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?

zadesiti svet u budućnosti i budućnost čovečanstva.

I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport

Mislim da je izuzetno važno da imamo održivi prevoz

and sustainable energy production.

i održivu proizvodnju energije.

That sort of overall sustainable energy problem

Taj problem sveobuhvatne održivosti energije

is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,

je najveći problem koji moramo da rešimo u ovom veku

independent of environmental concerns.

nezavisno od ekoloških interesa.

In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,

Čak iako je proizvodnja CO2 dobra za okolinu,

given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,

budući da ćemo ostati bez ugljovodonika,

we need to find some sustainable means of operating.

potrebno nam je da pronađemo neki održivi način delovanja.

CA: Most of American electricity comes from

KA: Većina struje u SAD dolazi

burning fossil fuels.

od sagorevanja fosilnih goriva.

How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?

Kako jedan električni automobil koji koristi tu struju može da pomogne?

EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.

IM: Odgovor na to se sastoji iz dva dela.

One is that, even if you take the same source fuel

Prvi je, da čak iako uzmemo isto izvorno gorivo

and produce power at the power plant

i proizvedemo energiju u elektrani

and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.

i tu energiju koristimo za punjenje električnih automobila, rezultat je bolji.

So if you take, say, natural gas,

Ako uzmemo, na primer, prirodni gas,

which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,

koji je najrasprostranjeniji izvor ugljovodonika,

if you burn that in a modern

i ako ga sagorimo u modernoj

General Electric natural gas turbine,

Dženeral Elektrik turbini za prirodni gas,

you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.

dobijamo efikasnost od oko 60 procenata.

If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,

Ako isto to gorivo sipamo u automobil sa motorom sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem

you get about 20 percent efficiency.

dobijamo efikasnost od oko 20 procenata.

And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,

Uzrok tome je da u zgradi elektrane

you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,

možemo da imamo nešto što teži mnogo više,

is voluminous,

nešto velikog obima

and you can take the waste heat

i možemo višak toplote da iskoristimo

and run a steam turbine and generate

za pokretanje parnih turbina i stvaranje

a secondary power source.

sekundarnog izvora energije.

So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,

I zato, čak i kada uračunamo gubitak tokom prenosa,

even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off

čak i upotrebom istog izvora goriva, punjenjem električnog automobila

charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.

korist je dvostruka ako se sagorevanje vrši u elektrani.

CA: That scale delivers efficiency.

KA: Veličina doprinosi efikasnosti.

EM: Yes, it does.

IM: Tako je.

And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means

Druga stvar jeste da uopšteno moramo da imamo održivi način

of power generation anyway, electricity generation.

proizvodnje energije, proizvodnje struje.

So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,

Ako već moramo da smislimo održiv način proizvodnje struje,

then it makes sense for us to have electric cars

onda je logično da nam električni automobili

as the mode of transport.

budu prevozno sredstvo.

CA: So we've got some video here

KA: Imamo jedan video ovde

of the Tesla being assembled,

o sklapanju "Tesle",

which, if we could play that first video --

možemo li da vidimo taj prvi video -

So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?

Šta je inovativno u ovom vozilu?

EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,

IM: Kako bismo ubrzali napredak električnog prevoza

and I should say that I think, actually,

i moram reći da zapravo smatram

all modes of transport will become fully electric

da će sva prevozna sredstva u budućnosti postati u potpunosti električna

with the ironic exception of rockets.

sa ironičnim izuzetkom raketa.

There's just no way around Newton's third law.

Prosto nema načina da se izbegne Njutnov treći zakon.

The question is how do you accelerate

Pitanje je: kako ubrzati

the advent of electric transport?

napredak električnog prevoza?

And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with

Kako bismo to uradili sa automobilima, moramo da smislimo

a really energy efficient car,

automobil koji je izuzetno energetski efikasan,

so that means making it incredibly light,

što znači da on mora da bude izuzetno lak

and so what you're seeing here

i ono što sada ovde vidite

is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car

je jedini automobil napravljen u Severnoj Americi čije su telo i šasija

made in North America.

u celini napravljeni od aluminijuma.

In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques

Primenili smo mnoge od tehnika koje se koriste u dizajnu raketa

to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.

kako bismo automobil napravili lakim uprkos velikom akumulatoru.

And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient

I on ima i najniži koeficijent otpora

of any car of its size.

među automobilima iste veličine.

So as a result, the energy usage is very low,

Kao rezultat, on troši veoma malo energije

and it has the most advanced battery pack,

i ima veoma napredan akumulator

and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,

i zbog toga je konkurentan,

so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.

on može da ima domet od čak oko 400km.

CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,

KA: Ti akumulatori su neverovatno teški,

but you think the math can still work out intelligently --

ali smatrate da će kalkulacije ipak biti tačne -

by combining light body, heavy battery,

i ako se iskombinuju lako telo i težak akumulator,

you can still gain spectacular efficiency.

možemo dobiti spektakularnu efikasnost.

EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light

IM: Upravo tako. Ostali delovi automobila moraju da budu veoma lagani

to offset the mass of the pack,

kako bi nadomestili za težinu akumulatora

and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.

i potreban nam je nizak koeficijent otpora, kako bi domet na auto putu bio dobar.

And in fact, customers of the Model S

Vlasnici Modela S

are sort of competing with each other

se na neki način takmiče jedni s drugima

to try to get the highest possible range.

pokušavajući da postignu najveći mogući domet.

I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.

Mislim da je nedavno neko dostigao 675km sa jednim punjenjem.

CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,

KA: Bruno Bouden, koji je ovde, je to postigao,

broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.

oborio je svetski rekord. IM: Čestitam.

CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that

KA: To su bile lepe vesti. Loša vest je da

to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed

kako bi to uradio, bilo je potrebno da održava brzinu od 30km na sat

and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)

i zaustavila ga je policija. (Smeh)

EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --

IM: Možete da vozite -

if you drive it 65 miles an hour,

ukoliko vozite 100km na sat

under normal conditions,

u normalnim uslovima

250 miles is a reasonable number.

400 kilometara je razuman broj.

CA: Let's show that second video

KA: Hajde da vidimo drugi video

showing the Tesla in action on ice.

koji pokazuje "Teslu" u akciji na ledu.

Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.

Ništa na račun "Njujork Tajmsa", samo da napomenem.

What is the most surprising thing about the experience

Šta je najzanimljivija stvar u vezi sa iskustvom

of driving the car?

vožnje ovog automobila?

EM: In creating an electric car,

IM: Kod stvaranja električnog automobila

the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.

odziv automobila je zaista neverovatan.

So we wanted really to have people feel as though

Želeli smo da se ljudi osećaju kao da

they've almost got to mind meld with the car,

su umom povezani s kolima,

so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,

kao da su oni i kola jedno

and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,

i dok skrećemo i ubzavamo, to se naprosto desi,

like the car has ESP.

kao da automobil ima šesto čulo.

You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.

Sa električnim automobilom je to moguće zbog brzog odziva.

You can't do that with a gasoline car.

To nije moguće sa automobilom na benzin.

I think that's really a profound difference,

Mislim da je to osnovna razlika

and people only experience that when they have a test drive.

koju ljudi iskuse tek kada odu na probnu vožnju.

CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.

KA: Ovo je predivan, ali i skup automobil.

Is there a road map where this becomes

Da li će u nekom trenutku on postati

a mass-market vehicle?

vozilo za masovno tržište?

EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been

IM: Da. Plan "Tesle" je oduvek bio

to have a sort of three-step process,

da se ovaj proces sastoji iz tri koraka,

where version one was an expensive car at low volume,

gde je prva verzija skup automobil, male zapremine,

version two is medium priced and medium volume,

druga verzija automobil prosečne cene i zapremine,

and then version three would be low price, high volume.

a treća verzija automobil niske cene i velike zapremine.

So we're at step two at this point.

Mi smo sada u drugoj fazi.

So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.

Imali smo "Rodster", sportski automobil po ceni od 100.000 dolara.

Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.

Zatim Model S, čija cena počinje oko 50.000 dolara.

And our third generation car, which should hopefully

Treća generacija automobila, koja bi

be out in about three or four years

trebalo da izađe za oko tri-četiri godine

will be a $30,000 car.

biće automobil od 30.000 dolara.

But whenever you've got really new technology,

Kad god je u pitanju zaista nova tehnologija,

it generally takes about three major versions

potrebne su u proseku tri različite verzije

in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.

kako bi se napravio zadovoljavajući proizvod za masovno tržište.

And so I think we're making progress in that direction,

Mislim da napredujemo u tom pravcu

and I feel confident that we'll get there.

i uveren sam da ćemo dotle i stići.

CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,

KA: U ovom trenutku, ukoliko je u pitanju kratka putanja,

you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.

možete da se odvezete, vratite i napunite automobil kod kuće.

There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.

Ne postoji ogromna mreža stanica za brzo punjenje širom zemlje.

Do you see that coming, really, truly,

Da li mislite da će toga biti, zaista, u stvarnosti

or just on a few key routes?

ili će ih biti samo na nekoliko ključnih putanja?

EM: There actually are far more charging stations

IM: U stvari postoji mnogo više stanica za punjenje

than people realize,

nego što ljudi uviđaju,

and at Tesla we developed something

a za "Teslu" smo razvili nešto

called a Supercharging technology,

što se zove "tehnologija superpunjenja"

and we're offering that if you buy a Model S

i nudimo to ako kupite Model S

for free, forever.

besplatno, zauvek.

And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.

To je nešto što verovatno mnogo ljudi ne uviđa.

We actually have California and Nevada covered,

Pokrili smo Kaliforniju i Nevadu

and we've got the Eastern seaboard

i pokrili smo istočnu obalu

from Boston to D.C. covered.

od Bostona do Vašingtona.

By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive

Do kraja ove godine moći ćete da vozite

from L.A. to New York

od Los Anđelesa do Njujorka

just using the Supercharger network,

koristeći samo mrežu superpunjača

which charges at five times the rate of anything else.

koji pune pet puta brže nego bilo šta drugo.

And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,

Ključna stvar je da uspostavimo srazmeru vožnje i stajanja

to stop time, of about six or seven.

koja će biti oko šest ili sedam.

So if you drive for three hours,

Znači, ukoliko vozite tri sata,

you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,

želite da stanete na 20 ili 30 minuta,

because that's normally what people will stop for.

jer je to uobičajeno vreme na koje ljudi staju.

So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,

Ako krenete na put u 9 ujutru,

by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,

oko podneva ćete poželeti da stanete da pojedete nešto,

hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.

odete do toaleta, po kafu i nastavite vožnju.

CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.

KA: Predlog korisnicima je da potpuno punjenje traje sat vremena.

So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.

To je uobičajeno - nemojte očekivati da zavšite s tim za 10 minuta.

Wait for an hour, but the good news is,

Sačekajte sat, ali dobra vest je,

you're helping save the planet,

da pomažete očuvanju planete,

and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.

a pri tom je struja besplatna. Vi ne plaćate ništa.

EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people

IM: Ono što u stvari očekujemo je da ljudi

to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.

staju na oko 20 do 30 minuta, ne na sat vremena.

It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles

U stvari je i bolje voziti oko 250, 275 kilometara

and then stop for half an hour

i onda stati na pola sata

and then keep going.

i nastaviti.

That's the natural cadence of a trip.

To je prirodan tok putovanja.

CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.

KA: U redu. To je samo jedno od vaših energetskih rešenja.

You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.

Radite na solarnoj kompaniji "SolarSiti" (SolarCity).

What's unusual about that?

Šta je neobično u vezi s tim?

EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,

IM: Kao što sam ranije spomenuo,

we have to have sustainable electricity production

moramo da imamo održivu proizvodnju struje,

as well as consumption,

kao i potrošnju,

so I'm quite confident that the primary means

pa sam poprilično siguran da će primaran izvor

of power generation will be solar.

proizvodnje struje postati solaran.

I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.

To je u stvari indirekna fuzija.

We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,

Imamo ogroman fuzijski generator na nebu, koji zovemo sunce

and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy

i samo treba da iskoristimo mali deo te energije

for purposes of human civilization.

u svrhe ljudske civilizacije.

What most people know but don't realize they know

Ono što većina ljudi zna, ali ne uviđa da zna

is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.

jeste da se svet već skoro u potpunosti napaja solarnom energijom.

If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball

Da nema sunca, bili bismo smrznuta kocka leda

at three degrees Kelvin,

na minus 270 stepeni,

and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.

a sunce pokreće i celokupan sistem padavina.

The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.

Ceo ekosistem pokreće solarna energija.

CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,

KA: Ali u nekoliko litara goriva mi imamo

effectively, thousands of years of sun power

hiljade godina sunčeve energije

compressed into a small space,

sabijene u mali prostor

so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,

i zato je trenutno nemoguće kalkulisati sa solarnom energijom,

and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,

niti izbliza biti konkurentan sa, na primer, prirodnim gasom,

fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?

lomljenim prirodnim gasom. Kako ćete poslovati s ovim?

EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar

IM: U stvari sam siguran da će solarna energija

will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.

prevazići sve, bez premca, uključujući i prirodan gas.

(Applause)CA: How?

(Aplauz) KA: Kako?

EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.

IM: Moraće. Inače smo u velikoj nevolji.

CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.

KA: Ali vi nećete prodavati solarne ploče korisnicima.

What are you doing?

Šta ćete raditi?

EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system

IM: U stvari hoćemo. Možete da kupite solarni sistem

or you can lease a solar system.

ili da ga iznajmite.

Most people choose to lease.

Većina ljudi se opredeljuje za iznajmljivanje.

And the thing about solar power is that

Stvar sa solarnom energijom je to

it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,

što ne postoje troškovi skladištenja i nema operativnih troškova,

so once it's installed, it's just there.

dakle jednom kada su ploče postavljene, one su naprosto tamo.

It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.

Rade decenijama. Najverovatnije će raditi ceo vek.

So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost

Zato je ključna stvar sniziti cenu

of that initial installation low,

te početne instalacije

and then get the cost of the financing low,

i onda cenu finansiranja

because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.

putem tog učešća - to su dva faktora koja utiču na cenu solarnosti.

And we've made huge progress in that direction,

Napravili smo ogroman pomak u tom pravcu

and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.

i zato sam siguran da ćemo prevazići prirodni gas.

CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,

KA: Dakle trenutni cilj za korisnike vam je

don't pay so much up front.

da ne plaćaju tako mnogo unapred.

EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.

IM: Ništa. KA: Nemojte ništa da platite unapred.

We will install panels on your roof.

Postavićemo vam ploče na krov.

You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?

Onda ćete platiti, koja je uobičajena dužina zakupa?

EM: Typical leases are 20 years,

IM: Zakup je obično na 20 godina,

but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.

ali vrednost predloga je, kao što ste na neki način aludirali, poprilično jasna.

It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.

Nema učešća, a vaše komunalije se smanjuju.

Pretty good deal.

Poprilično dobra ponuda.

CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.

KA: Deluje kao dobitak za korisnike.

No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.

Nema rizika, plaćate manje nego što sada plaćate.

For you, the dream here then is that --

Za vas, san je onda da -

I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?

ko je vlasnik struje iz tih ploča dugoročno gledano?

I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?

Kako vi, kompanija, imate koristi od toga?

EM: Well, essentially,

IM: Suštinski,

SolarCity raises a chunk of capital

SolarSiti ubira dobar deo kapitala

from say, a company or a bank.

od kompanija ili banki.

Google is one of our big partners here.

Gugl je jedan od naših glavnih partnera ovde.

And they have an expected return on that capital.

I oni očekuju povratak tog kapitala.

With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof

S tim kapitalom, SolarSiti kupuje i ugrađuje ploče na krov

and then charges the homeowner or business owner

i onda naplaćuje vlasnicima kuća ili poslovnim ljudima

a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.

mesečni najam, koji košta manje nego račun za komunalije.

CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.

KA: Ali vi imate dugoročnu trgovinsku korist od te energije.

You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.

Na neki način stvarate novu vrstu podeljenih komunalija.

EM: Exactly. What it amounts to

IM: Upravo tako. Ono što je rezultat

is a giant distributed utility.

jeste podeljena korist velikih srazmera.

I think it's a good thing, because utilities

Mislim da je to dobra stvar, pošto su komunalije

have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.

dugo bile pod monopolom i ljudi nisu imali izbora.

So effectively it's the first time

I zato je ovo prvi put

there's been competition for this monopoly,

da postoji takmičenje za taj monopol,

because the utilities have been the only ones

jer su komunalni zavodi do sada bili jedini

that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.

koji su bili vlasnici mreža za distibuciju energije, a one su sada na vašem krovu.

So I think it's actually very empowering

Mislim da to daje moć u ruke

for homeowners and businesses.

vlasnika kuća i preduzeća.

CA: And you really picture a future

KA: Da li zaista zamišljate budućnost

where a majority of power in America,

u kojoj većina energije u Americi,

within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?

za deceniju ili dve ili za vreme našeg života, postaje solarna?

EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,

IM: Poprilično sam samouveren da će solarna energija biti većinska,

and most likely a majority,

najverovatnije najveća

and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.

i predviđam da će se taj rast desiti za manje od 20 godina.

I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?

Kladio sam se na to. - KA: Većinska znači?

EM: More from solar than any other source.

IM: Više iz solarnih nego bilo kojih drugih izvora.

CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?

KA: S kim ste se kladili?

EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.

IM: S prijateljem koji će ostati anoniman.

CA: Just between us. (Laughter)

KA: Samo među nama. (Smeh)

EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,

IM: Opkladio sam se, mislim, pre dve ili tri godine,

so in roughly 18 years,

tako da za otprilike 18 godina

I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.

mislim da će biti više solarne energije nego energije iz bilo kog drugog izvora.

CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made

KA: U redu, hajde da se vratimo na jednu drugu opkladu koju ste načinili

with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.

sami sa sobom, pretpostavljam, jednu suludu opkladu.

You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.

Zaradili ste nešto novca prodajom "Pejpal"-a (PayPal)

You decided to build a space company.

i odlučili ste da napravite svemirsku kompaniju.

Why on Earth would someone do that?

Zašto bi, zaboga, neko to uradio?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.

IM: Često su me to pitali, u pravu ste.

People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy

Ljudi bi rekli: "Da li ste čuli onu šalu o čoveku

who made a small fortune in the space industry?"

koji je zaradio malo bogatsvo u svemirskoj industriji?"

Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.

"Očigledno je počeo sa velikim bogatsvom" bila bi doskočica.

And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out

I zato govorim ljudima: "Pokušavao sam da otkrijem

the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.

koji je najbrži način da veliko bogatstvo pretvorim u malo."

And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"

I oni bi gledali u mene, kao: "Da li je on ozbiljan?"

CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?

KA: I začudo, bili ste. Šta se desilo?

EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.

IM: Stvar je bila na granici i zamalo nije uspela.

We came very close to failure,

Došli smo jako blizu toga da ne uspemo,

but we managed to get through that point in 2008.

ali smo uspeli da prevaziđemo to 2008.

The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,

Cilj Spejs Eksa (Space X) je da unapredimo raketnu tehnologiju

and in particular to try to crack a problem

ili tačnije da rešimo jedan problem

that I think is vital

za koji smatram da je ključan

for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,

kako bi čovečanstvo postalo dalekosežna civilizacija u svemiru,

which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.

a to je da imamo raketu koja je brzo i u potpunosti ponovno upotrebljiva.

CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?

KA: Da li će ljudi postati civilizacija koja putuje svemirom?

So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?

Dakle to je bio na neki način Vaš san još od malih nogu?

You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?

Sanjali ste o Marsu i o daljem prostranstvu?

EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,

IM: Zaista jesam gradio rakete kada sam bio dete,

but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.

ali nisam mislio da ću biti deo ovako nečega.

It was really more from the standpoint of

To se više desilo sa tačke gledišta toga

what are the things that need to happen in order for

šta je potrebno da se uradi kako bi

the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?

budućnost bila uzbudljiva i inspirišuća?

And I really think there's a fundamental difference,

I zaista mislim da postoji ključna razlika,

if you sort of look into the future,

ako pogledamo u budućnost,

between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,

između čovečanstva koje putuje svemirom,

that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,

koje je tamo negde, istražuje zvezde, na nekoliko planeta

and I think that's really exciting,

i mislim da je to zaista uzbudljivo,

compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth

u poređenju sa budućnošću u kojoj smo zauvek vezani za Zemlju

until some eventual extinction event.

do nekog događaja u kome izumiremo.

CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building

KA: Nekako ste uspeli da sasečete troškove gradnje

a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.

rakete za 75 procenata, u zavisnosti od toga kako računamo.

How on Earth have you done that?

Kako ste, zaboga, uspeli to da uradite?

NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?

NASA ovo radi već godinama. Kako ste vi to uradili?

EM: Well, we've made significant advances

IM: Napravili smo značajne pomake

in the technology of the airframe, the engines,

u tehnologiji konstrukcije letelice, motora,

the electronics and the launch operation.

elektronike i operacije lansiranja.

There's a long list of innovations

Postoji duga lista inovacija

that we've come up with there

koje smo osmislili,

that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --

koje je u stvari malo teško preneti u ovom razgovoru, ali -

CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?

KA: U najmanju ruku, zato što bi neko mogao da vam ukrade ideju, zar ne?

You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.

Niste patentirali ove stvari. To mi je stvarno interesantno.

EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's

IM: Ne, nemamo patent. KA: Niste patentirali zato što mislite da je

more dangerous to patent than not to patent.

opasnije patentirati nego ne patentirati.

EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,

IM: Pošto su naši glavni konkurenti vlade drugih država,

the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)

primenjivost patenata se može dovesti u pitanje. (Smeh) (Aplauz)

CA: That's really, really interesting.

KA: To je stvarno, stvarno interesantno.

But the big innovation is still ahead,

Ali najveća inovacija je tek pred nama

and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.

i radite na njoj upravo. Pričajte nam o tome.

EM: Right, so the big innovation—

IM: Da, dakle velika inovacija -

CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.

KA: U stvari, hajde da pustimo video i možete da nam pričate uz njega, šta se dešava.

EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that

IM: Naravno. Dakle, stvar u vezi s raketama je to

they're all expendable.

što su sve one potrošne.

All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.

Sve rakete koje danas lete su u potpunosti potrošne.

The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,

Spejs šatl je bio pokušaj višestruko upotrebljive rakete,

but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,

ali se čak i glavni rezervoar spejs šatla odbacivao svaki put,

and the parts that were reusable

a za delove koji su bili ponovno upotrebljivi

took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.

10.000 ljudi je radilo devet meseci kako bi se obnovili za rad.

So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.

I tako spejs šatl košta milijarde dolara za svaki let.

Obviously that doesn't work very well for —

Očigledno to ne funcioniše baš veoma dobro za -

CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?

KA: Šta se ovde desilo? Videli smo da nešto sleće?

EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages

IM: Upravo tako. Bitno je da raketa

be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site

može da se vrati, da dođe nazad na mesto lansiranja

and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.

i bude spremna za lansiranje za nekoliko sati.

CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause)

KA: Oho. Ponovno upotrebljive rakete. IM: Da. (Aplauz)

And so what a lot of people don't realize is,

Ono što mnogo ljudi ne uviđa jeste da je

the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.

cena goriva, pogona, veoma niska.

It's much like on a jet.

Kao na mlaznjaku.

So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent

Cena pogonskog goriva je oko 0.3 procenta

of the cost of the rocket.

cene rakete.

So it's possible to achieve, let's say,

I zato je moguće postići, recimo,

roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight

smanjenje cene leta u svemir oko 100 puta,

if you can effectively reuse the rocket.

ako efikasno ponovno upotrebimo raketu.

That's why it's so important.

Zato je to toliko važno.

Every mode of transport that we use,

Svaki vid transporta koji koristimo,

whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,

bili to avioni, vozovi, automobili, bicikli, konji

is reusable, but not rockets.

mogu se ponovno upotrebiti, ali ne i rakete.

So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.

I zato moramo da rešimo ovaj problem kako bismo postali civilizacija koja putuje svemirom.

CA: You asked me the question earlier

KA: Pitali ste me malopre

of how popular traveling on cruises would be

koliko bi krstarenje bilo popularno

if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.

ukoliko bismo morali da palimo brodove posle toga. IM: Neka krstarenja su veoma problematična.

CA: Definitely more expensive.

KA: Definitivno skuplje.

So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,

I zato je to potencijalno veoma rušilačka tehnologija

and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,

i pretpostavljam da ovo stvara put ka ostvarenju Vašeg sna

at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.

da jednom povedemo srazmeran broj ljudi na Mars.

You'd like to see a colony on Mars.

Voleli biste da vidite koloniju na Marsu.

EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination

IM: Da, tačno. Spejs Eks ili kombinacija

of companies and governments, needs to make progress

kompanija i vlada, treba da ostvari progres

in the direction of making life multi-planetary,

u pravcu toga da osposobimo život na nekoliko planeta

of establishing a base on another planet,

ili da uspostavimo bazu na nekoj drugoj planeti,

on Mars -- being the only realistic option --

- Mars je ovde jedina realistična opcija -

and then building that base up

i da onda razvijamo tu bazu

until we're a true multi-planet species.

dok ne postanemo zaista vrsta koja živi na više planeta.

CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"

KA: Kako progres na ovom "napravimo ga ponovno upotrebljivim"

how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.

napreduje? Ovaj video je bio samo simulacija.

How's it going?

Kako napredujete?

EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently

IM: U stvari, u poslednje vreme napredujemo poprilično dobro,

with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,

napravili smo nešto što se zove "Test projekat Skakavac"

where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,

u kome testiramo vertikalno sletanje,

the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.

konačan deo leta koji je poprilično komplikovan.

And we've had some good tests.

I imali smo neke uspešne testove.

CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.

KA: Možemo li da vidimo to? IM: Da.

So that's just to give a sense of scale.

Kako bismo vam približili veličinu.

We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash

Obukli smo kauboja kao Džoni Keša

and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)

i privezali lutku uz raketu. (Smeh)

CA: All right, let's see that video then,

KA: U redu, hajde da vidimo video,

because this is actually amazing when you think about it.

jer je ovo u stvari neverovatno kada razmislite o tome.

You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --

Ovo nikada niste videli. Raketa koja uzleće i onda -

EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size

IM: Da, dakle ovo je raketa veličine

of a 12-story building.

zgrade od 12 spratova.

(Rocket launch)

(Lansiranje rakete)

So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,

Ona sada lebdi na oko 40 metara

and it's constantly adjusting

i neprestano podešava

the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,

ugao, nagib i pravac glavnog motora

and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.

i održava treperenje sa pogonom na ugljani gas.

CA: How cool is that? (Applause)

KA: Koliko je to kul? (Aplauz)

Elon, how have you done this?

Ilone, kako ste ovo uradili?

These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,

Ovi projekti - Pejpal, SolarSiti,

Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,

Tesla, Spejs Eks, toliko su neverovatno različiti,

they're such ambitious projects at scale.

oni su toliko ambiciozni projekti globalno gledano.

How on Earth has one person

Kako je jedna osoba

been able to innovate in this way?

sposobna za ovakvu inovaciju?

What is it about you?

Šta je to u vezi s Vama?

EM: I don't know, actually.

IM: Ne znam.

I don't have a good answer for you.

Nemam dobar odgovor na ovo.

I work a lot. I mean, a lot.

Radim mnogo. Mislim, mnogo.

CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.

KA: Imam jednu teoriju. IM: U redu. Dobro.

CA: My theory is that you

KA: Moja teorija je

have an ability to think at a system level of design

da ste sposobni da razmišljate na nivou sistemskog dizajna

that pulls together design, technology and business,

koji spaja dizajn, tehnologiju i poslovanje,

so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,

tako da, ako bi TED bio TBD, dizajn, tehnologija i poslovanje

into one package,

spojeno u jedno,

synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --

povezujete ih na način kako malo ljudi ume -

and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident

i ovo je ključna stvar - toliko samouvereno

in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.

da s tim povezanim paketom peuzimate sulude rizike.

You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.

Rizukujete svoje bogatstvo na tome, a izgleda da ste to uradili nekoliko puta.

I mean, almost no one can do that.

Mislim, skoro niko nije sposoban za to.

Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?

Možemo li dobiti malo tog tajnog začina?

Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?

Možemo li načiniti to delom obrazovnog sistema? Da li neko može da nauči to od Vas?

It is truly amazing what you've done.

Ono što ste uradili je zaista neverovatno.

EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.

IM: Pa, hvala. Hvala Vam.

Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.

Mislim da ne postoji dobra osnova za razmišljanje.

It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.

To je fizika. Znate, neki osnovni principi zaključivanja.

Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,

Uopšteno mislim da postoje - ono što mislim pri tome je

boil things down to their fundamental truths

da se stvari svode na njihove osnovne istine

and reason up from there,

i treba krenuti od toga,

as opposed to reasoning by analogy.

nasuprot zaključivanju putem analogije.

Through most of our life, we get through life

Kroz veći deo života, mi prolazimo

by reasoning by analogy,

koristeći analogiju,

which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.

što suštinski znači kopiranje onoga što drugi ljudi rade uz manje varijacije.

And you have to do that.

I morate to da radite.

Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.

Inače, mentalno, ne biste mogli da preživite dan.

But when you want to do something new,

Ali kada želite da uradite nešto novo,

you have to apply the physics approach.

morate da primenite pristup fizike.

Physics is really figuring out how to discover

Fizika zaista pronalazi načine za otkrivanje

new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.

novih stvari, koje su suprotne instinktima, kao što je kvantna mehanika.

It's really counterintuitive.

Zaista je nelogična.

So I think that's an important thing to do,

Mislim da je to bitna stvar

and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,

i onda da obratimo pažnju i na negativne povratne informacije

and solicit it, particularly from friends.

i da ih zatražimo, naročito od prijatelja.

This may sound like simple advice,

Možda ovo zvuči kao prost savet,

but hardly anyone does that,

ali skoro niko to ne radi,

and it's incredibly helpful.

a to je od izuzetne pomoći.

CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.

KA: Momci i devojke koji ovo gledate, učite fiziku.

Learn from this man.

Učite od ovog čoveka.

Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.

Ilone Mask, voleo bih da imamo ceo dan, ali hvala Vam mnogo što ste došli na TED.

EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.

IM: Hvala. KA: Bilo je neverovatno. Zaista, zaista kul.

Look at that. (Applause)

Pogledaj. (Aplauz)

Just take a bow. That was fantastic.

Samo se poklonite. Bilo je fantastično.

Thank you so much.

Hvala Vam mnogo.