The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ... | Elon Musk

3,962,111 views ใƒป 2013-03-19

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Sp Han ๊ฒ€ํ† : Kwon Gukwon
00:15
Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์—˜๋Ÿฐ, ๋„๋Œ€์ฒด ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฟˆ์„ ๊ฟจ๊ธฐ์—
00:18
would persuade you to think of trying
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์ž๋™์ฐจ ์‚ฐ์—…์— ๋›ฐ์–ด๋“ค์–ด์„œ
00:20
to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
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์ „๊ธฐ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์•ผ๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๊ฑฐ์ฃ ?
00:24
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ทธ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋Œ€ํ•™ ๋•Œ๋กœ ๊ฑฐ์Šฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
00:27
I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely
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๊ณ ๋ฏผํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ธ๊ณ„์™€ ์ธ๋ฅ˜์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์—
00:29
to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€?
00:32
I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport
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์ €๋Š” ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ตํ†ต ์ˆ˜๋‹จ๊ณผ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ด
00:36
and sustainable energy production.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์ฃ .
00:38
That sort of overall sustainable energy problem
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์™„๋ฒฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์•ผ๋ง๋กœ
00:40
is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,
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๊ธˆ์„ธ๊ธฐ์— ํ’€์–ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
00:43
independent of environmental concerns.
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ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฑฑ์ •์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ์ฃ .
00:45
In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, ํƒ„ํ™”์ˆ˜์†Œ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์›๋ฃŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ณ ๊ฐˆ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฏ€๋กœ,
00:48
given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,
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์ด์‚ฐํ™”ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์ด ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ์ข‹์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
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๋™๋ ฅ์„ ์–ป๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:55
CA: Most of American electricity comes from
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๋ ฅ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€
00:59
burning fossil fuels.
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ํ™”์„ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ํƒœ์›Œ์„œ ์–ป์ง€์š”.
01:01
How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
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์ „๋ ฅ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜์ฃ ?
01:05
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ . ๊ทธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‹ต์€ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:08
One is that, even if you take the same source fuel
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ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š”, ๋งŒ์•ฝ ๋™์ผํ•œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋กœ
01:11
and produce power at the power plant
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๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์—์„œ ์ „๋ ฅ์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๊ณ ,
01:13
and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.
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๊ทธ๊ฑธ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์ถฉ์ „์— ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด๋„ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ด๋“์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:16
So if you take, say, natural gas,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋„๋ฆฌ ์“ฐ์ด๋Š”
01:18
which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,
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ํƒ„ํ™”์ˆ˜์†Œ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์ธ ์ฒœ์—ฐ ๊ฐ€์Šค๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
01:21
if you burn that in a modern
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๊ทธ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ "์ œ๋„ค๋Ÿด ์ผ๋ ‰ํŠธ๋ฆญ"์˜
01:24
General Electric natural gas turbine,
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ํ˜„๋Œ€์ ์ธ ์ฒœ์—ฐ ๊ฐ€์Šค ์—ฐ์†Œ ์žฅ์น˜์—์„œ ํƒœ์šฐ๋ฉด
01:26
you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.
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60% ์ •๋„์˜ ํšจ์œจ๋กœ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:28
If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ฐ™์€ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ์˜ ๋‚ด์—ฐ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด
01:30
you get about 20 percent efficiency.
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20% ์ •๋„์˜ ํšจ์œจ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:32
And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”, ๊ณ ์ •๋œ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์—์„œ๋Š”
01:34
you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,
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๋ฌด๊ฒŒ๋„ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋งŽ์ด ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ณ  ๋ถ€ํ”ผ๋„ ํฐ
01:36
is voluminous,
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๋ฌผ์งˆ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
01:38
and you can take the waste heat
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๋˜ํ•œ ๋ถ€์‚ฐ๋ฌผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ์—ด์„ ์–ป์–ด
01:39
and run a steam turbine and generate
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์ฆ๊ธฐ ํ„ฐ๋นˆ ์—”์ง„์„ ๋Œ๋ ค์„œ
01:41
a secondary power source.
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2์ฐจ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:43
So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ, ์—ด์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ „๋‹ฌ ์‹œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์—ด์†์‹ค ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•ด๋„
01:46
even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off
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๊ฐ™์€ ์–‘์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ๋ฐœ์ „์†Œ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๋กœ ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ถฉ์ „ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ
01:50
charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
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์ ์–ด๋„ 2๋ฐฐ ์ •๋„๋กœ ํšจ์œจ์ด ๋†’์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:52
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทœ๋ชจ๊ฐ€ ํšจ์œจ์„ ๋†’์ด๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๊ตฐ์š”.
01:54
EM: Yes, it does.
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ .
01:56
And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€, ์–ด์ฐŒ ๋๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌํ•œํ…Œ๋Š”
01:59
of power generation anyway, electricity generation.
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์ „๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:02
So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,
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์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด
02:05
then it makes sense for us to have electric cars
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์™œ ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ˜„๋Œ€์˜ ๊ตํ†ต์ˆ˜๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ
02:08
as the mode of transport.
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋‹ต์ด ๋‚˜์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:11
CA: So we've got some video here
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:12
of the Tesla being assembled,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ "ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ(Tesla)"๊ฐ€ ์กฐ๋ฆฝ๋˜๋Š” ๋ชจ์Šต์œผ๋กœ,
02:15
which, if we could play that first video --
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋น„๋””์˜ค ํ™”๋ฉด์— ๋‚˜์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
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์ด ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๊ณต์ •์—์„œ ํ˜์‹ ์ ์ธ ์ ์€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?
02:22
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ „๊ธฐ ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์˜ ๋„๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์ด‰๋ฐœํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด
02:26
and I should say that I think, actually,
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”, ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ
02:28
all modes of transport will become fully electric
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๋ชจ๋“  ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜๋‹จ๋“ค์ด ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:30
with the ironic exception of rockets.
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๋กœ์ผ“์€ ์–ด์ฉ” ์ˆ˜ ์—†์ด ์˜ˆ์™ธ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ์š”.
02:35
There's just no way around Newton's third law.
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๋‰ดํ„ด์˜ ์ œ3๋ฒ•์น™์„ ํ”ผํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:38
The question is how do you accelerate
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ „๊ธฐ ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์„
02:42
the advent of electric transport?
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๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ํ•˜๋Š๋ƒ์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
02:43
And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with
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์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฑด
02:46
a really energy efficient car,
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์ง„์ •ํ•œ ๊ณ ํšจ์œจ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:48
so that means making it incredibly light,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€๋ณ๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
02:50
and so what you're seeing here
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์€
02:51
is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car
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๋ชธ์ฒด์™€ ์ฐจ๋Œ€ ์ „์ฒด๋ฅผ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ 
02:54
made in North America.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์‚ฐ ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:55
In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ๋กœ์ผ“ ๋””์ž์ธ์„ ์‘์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ
02:58
to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.
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ํฐ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์€ ์‚ฌ์ด์ฆˆ ๋Œ€๋น„๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ €ํ•ญ ๊ณ„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ
03:04
of any car of its size.
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๊ฐ–๋Š” ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:05
So as a result, the energy usage is very low,
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๊ฒฐ๋ก ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋‚ฎ๊ณ 
03:09
and it has the most advanced battery pack,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ง„๋ณด๋œ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰ ์ค‘์—์„œ
03:11
and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,
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250๋งˆ์ผ ์šด์†ก ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ ์žˆ๋Š”
03:14
so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
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์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ฃผ๋ฌธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:16
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, ์ด ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํŒฉ๋“ค์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๋ฌด๊ฒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ
03:20
but you think the math can still work out intelligently --
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๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ์‚ฐ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์จ์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ด๋„
03:23
by combining light body, heavy battery,
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์šด ๋ชธ์ฒด์™€, ๋ฌด๊ฑฐ์šด ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
03:25
you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ์„ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋ฌผ๋ก ์ด์ฃ . ์ฐจ์ฒด์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๊ฐ€๋ฒผ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:30
to offset the mass of the pack,
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๋ฌด๊ฑฐ์šด ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํŒฉ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•˜๋ฉด์š”.
03:31
and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šดํ–‰ ์ €ํ•ญ ๊ณ„์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์•„์•ผ๋งŒ ์žฅ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ ์† ์ฃผํ–‰์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:34
And in fact, customers of the Model S
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ๋ชจ๋ธ "S"์˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐ๋“ค์€
03:38
are sort of competing with each other
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋จผ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ
03:39
to try to get the highest possible range.
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์„ ์„œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:42
I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ธฐ๋ก  ์ตœ๊ทผ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์ค‘ ํ•œ ๋ถ„์ด ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ถฉ์ „์œผ๋กœ 420๋งˆ์ผ์„ ๋‹ฌ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:46
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ธŒ๋ฃจ๋…ธ ๋ฐ”์šฐ๋“  ์”จ, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹œ์ฃ ? ์ด๊ฒŒ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„
03:49
broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
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๊นฌ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”. ์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ถ•ํ•˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:51
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ธ๋ฐ, ๋‚˜์œ ์†Œ์‹๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:53
to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed
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์ด ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ทธ๋Š” ํ‰๊ท  18๋งˆ์ผ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋ ค์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:56
and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์— ๊ฒฌ์ธ๋์ง€์š”. (์›ƒ์Œ)
04:00
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ๋งŒ์•ฝ์—
04:04
if you drive it 65 miles an hour,
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ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋‹น 65๋งˆ์ผ๋กœ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
04:06
under normal conditions,
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์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š”
04:08
250 miles is a reasonable number.
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250๋งˆ์ผ์ด ์ ์ •ํ•œ ์šดํ–‰ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
CA: Let's show that second video
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด
04:11
showing the Tesla in action on ice.
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ํ…”์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ผ์Œ ์œ„์—์„œ ์›€์ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:14
Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ๋‰ด์š• ํƒ€์ž„์ฆˆ์˜ ํŠน์ข…๋งŒํผ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์‚ฌ์‹ค๋„ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:17
What is the most surprising thing about the experience
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์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰ ์šด์ „ ์ค‘์— ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ
04:19
of driving the car?
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๋†€๋ผ์šฐ์‹ ์ง€์š”?
04:21
EM: In creating an electric car,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด๋‹ˆ
04:22
the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.
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์ฐจ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์‘ ์ˆ˜์ค€์€ ๋†€๋ž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
So we wanted really to have people feel as though
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋งˆ์น˜
04:27
they've almost got to mind meld with the car,
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์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ํ•œ ๋ชธ์ฒด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋Š๊ปด์ ธ์„œ
04:29
so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,
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๋งˆ์นจ๋‚ด๋Š” ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ํ•œ ๋ชธ์ด ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋Š๋ผ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์–ด
04:32
and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,
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๊ตฝ์€ ๊ธธ์„ ๋Œ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€์†ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์œผ๋ฉด ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋„๋ก,
04:37
like the car has ESP.
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์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์น˜ ์ดˆ๊ฐ๊ฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜์‘์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:38
You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.
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์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋กœ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:41
You can't do that with a gasoline car.
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์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๊ฐ€์†”๋ฆฐ ์ฐจ๋กœ๋Š” ์•ˆ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:43
I think that's really a profound difference,
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ์ฐจ์ด์ธ๋ฐ์š”,
04:45
and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‹œ์šด์ „์„ ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:48
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ถ„๋ช… ์•„๋ฆ„๋‹ต์ง€๋งŒ ๋น„์‹ผ๋ฐ์š”.
04:52
Is there a road map where this becomes
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์ด ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋„๋ก ๋งŒ๋“ค
04:56
a mass-market vehicle?
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๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๊ณ„ํš์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
04:57
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋ฌผ๋ก ์ด์ฃ , ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ…”์‚ฌ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š”
05:00
to have a sort of three-step process,
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ํฌ๊ฒŒ 3๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ณผ์ •์ธ๋ฐ์š”,
05:02
where version one was an expensive car at low volume,
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์ฒซ์งธ๋Š” ๊ณ ๊ฐ€์— ์†Œ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
05:06
version two is medium priced and medium volume,
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๋‘˜์งธ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ฐ€๋กœ์„œ ์ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
05:09
and then version three would be low price, high volume.
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์…‹์งธ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ €๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๋žต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:11
So we're at step two at this point.
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 2๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:13
So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 10๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์งœ๋ฆฌ "๋กœ๋“œ์Šคํ„ฐ"๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:16
Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์— 5๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์งœ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋ธ "S"๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”๊ณ 
05:19
And our third generation car, which should hopefully
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3์„ธ๋Œ€ ์ฐจ๋Ÿ‰์€, ์ €ํฌ๋“ค์ด ๋ฐ”๋ผ๊ฑด๋Œ€
05:21
be out in about three or four years
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3~4๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
05:23
will be a $30,000 car.
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๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ 3๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:25
But whenever you've got really new technology,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋ฉด
05:28
it generally takes about three major versions
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๋Œ€๊ฐœ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ 3๋ฒˆ์˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:30
in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.
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์†Œ๋น„์ž์—๊ฒŒ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋Œ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”์š”.
05:33
And so I think we're making progress in that direction,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ด๊ณ 
05:36
and I feel confident that we'll get there.
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3๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์‹ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:38
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์ง€๊ธˆ๋„ ํ†ต๊ทผ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์งง๋‹ค๋ฉด
05:40
you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.
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์ถœํ‡ด๊ทผํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ง‘์—์„œ ์ถฉ์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:44
There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.
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์ „๊ตญ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธ‰์† ์ถฉ์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•  ๋งŒํผ ํฐ ์ถฉ์ „์†Œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
Do you see that coming, really, truly,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
05:51
or just on a few key routes?
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ ๋„๋กœ์—๋งŒ ์„ค์น˜๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
05:53
EM: There actually are far more charging stations
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์‹ค์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•„๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋งŽ์€
05:56
than people realize,
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์ถฉ์ „์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:58
and at Tesla we developed something
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ํ…”์‚ฌ์—์„œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ
06:01
called a Supercharging technology,
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๊ธ‰์† ์ถฉ์ „ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:03
and we're offering that if you buy a Model S
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ, ๋ชจ๋ธ S๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ๋งคํ•˜๋ฉด
06:06
for free, forever.
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์˜๊ตฌํžˆ ๋ฌด๋ฃŒ๋กœ ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:08
And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งŽ์€ ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์•„์ง์€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ
06:10
We actually have California and Nevada covered,
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์บ˜๋ฆฌํฌ๋‹ˆ์•„์™€ ๋„ค๋ฐ”๋‹ค์—์„œ ์ถฉ์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ,
06:13
and we've got the Eastern seaboard
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๋™๋ถ€ ํ•ด์•ˆ ์ง€๋Œ€์ธ ๋ณด์Šคํ†ค๊ณผ ์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด D.C.์—์„œ๋„
06:15
from Boston to D.C. covered.
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์ถฉ์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:18
By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive
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์—ฐ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ์•„๋งˆ๋„ LA์—์„œ ๋‰ด์š•๊นŒ์ง€
06:19
from L.A. to New York
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์šด์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:21
just using the Supercharger network,
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๋‹จ์ง€ ์ด ๊ธ‰์† ์ถฉ์ „๋ง๋งŒ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
06:23
which charges at five times the rate of anything else.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ถฉ์ „ ๋ฐฉ์‹๋ณด๋‹ค 5๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ถฉ์ „์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์€ ์šด์ „ ์‹œ ์˜ˆ๋‹๊ณฑ ๋ฒˆ ์ •๋„๋Š”
06:31
to stop time, of about six or seven.
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์ •์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
So if you drive for three hours,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ 3์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์šดํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
06:37
you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,
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20~30๋ถ„ ์ •๋„๋Š” ์ •์ฐจํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:38
because that's normally what people will stop for.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ ๋งŒํผ์€ ์ •์ฐจํ•  ํ…Œ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
06:41
So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์˜ค์ „ 9์‹œ์— ์—ฌํ–‰์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉด
06:43
by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,
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์ ์‹ฌ๋•Œ์ฏค์— ์‹์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ •์ฐจํ•˜๊ณ 
06:45
hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
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ํ™”์žฅ์‹ค๋„ ๊ฐ€๊ณ , ์ปคํ”ผ๋„ ๋งˆ์‹œ๊ณ , ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
06:47
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋Œ€๋กœ๋ผ๋ฉด ์™„์ „ํ•œ ์ถฉ์ „์€ 1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
06:50
So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋Œ€๊ฐœ -- 10๋ถ„ ๋‚ด์— ์ถœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธธ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ์„ธ์š”.
06:54
Wait for an hour, but the good news is,
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ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์€ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์€
06:56
you're helping save the planet,
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์ง€ํ‚จ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
06:58
and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
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๋”์šฑ์ด ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ฌด๋ฃŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์—๋„ ๋ˆ์„ ๋‚ผ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์—†์ฃ .
07:00
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑด
07:02
to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.
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20~30๋ถ„ ์ •๋„ ์ •์ฐจํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€ ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์”ฉ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:06
It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 160~170๋งˆ์ผ์„ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ์— ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
07:14
and then stop for half an hour
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๋ฐ˜ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํœด์‹ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:16
and then keep going.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
07:17
That's the natural cadence of a trip.
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ์—ฌํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:20
CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์•Œ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฑด ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ํ•˜๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ผ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ผ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:25
You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์†”๋ผ์‹œํ‹ฐ๋ผ๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘์—ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ์ผํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
07:27
What's unusual about that?
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์–ด๋–ค ํŠน์ดํ•œ ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์š”?
07:30
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ธ€์Ž„์š”, ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ,
07:32
we have to have sustainable electricity production
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์šฐ๋ฆฌํ•œํ…Œ๋Š” ์•ˆ์ •์ ์ธ ์ „๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ณผ
07:36
as well as consumption,
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์†Œ๋น„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋ฉฐ,
07:38
so I'm quite confident that the primary means
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์šฐ์„ ์‹œ๋  ์ „๋ ฅ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์€
07:41
of power generation will be solar.
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ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:44
I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ •๋ง ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ ์ธ ์œตํ•ฉ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด์ฃ .
07:46
We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ•˜๋Š˜์— ํƒœ์–‘์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์œตํ•ฉ ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:49
and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ธ๋ฅ˜ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜
07:52
for purposes of human civilization.
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๊ทนํžˆ ์ผ๋ถ€๋งŒ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:55
What most people know but don't realize they know
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ์ง€๋งŒ ๊นจ๋‹ซ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
07:57
is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ „์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋กœ ์›€์ง์ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:01
If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ํƒœ์–‘์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ง€๊ตฌ๋Š” 3K(-270โ„ƒ)์˜
08:04
at three degrees Kelvin,
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์–ผ์Œ ๊ณต์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:06
and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํƒœ์–‘์ด ์ง€๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ฐ•์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์›€์ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:10
The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
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์ „์ฒด ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
08:12
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์“ฐ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์†”๋ฆฐ 1๊ฐค๋Ÿฐ์€
08:15
effectively, thousands of years of sun power
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์ˆ˜์ฒœ๋…„์˜ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ž‘์€ ๊ณต๊ฐ„์— ์••์ถ•๋˜์–ด
08:17
compressed into a small space,
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๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:19
so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ ,
08:22
and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,
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์ฒœ์—ฐ ๊ฐ€์Šค ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์›๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฌ์ฃผ๊ธฐ๋„ ์–ด๋ ต์ฃ .
08:25
fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
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์–ผ๋งˆ ์•ˆ ๋˜๋Š” ์ฒœ์—ฐ ๊ฐ€์Šค์š”. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์ฃ ?
08:29
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ธ€์Ž„์š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค, ์ €๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€
08:32
will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
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์†์“ธ ํ•„์š”๋„ ์—†์ด, ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•ด์„œ, ์–ด๋–ค ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ๋งŽ์ด ์“ฐ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์‹ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:36
(Applause)CA: How?
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜) ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ์š”?
08:38
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋น ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:42
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํŒจ๋„์„ ์†Œ๋น„์ž์—๊ฒŒ ํŒ”๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฑด ์•„๋‹ˆ์ฃ .
08:45
What are you doing?
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๋ฌด์—‡์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?
08:46
EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์•„๋‹ˆ์š”, ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ํŒ”๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์‚ด ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ 
08:49
or you can lease a solar system.
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋นŒ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
08:51
Most people choose to lease.
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋นŒ๋ฆฌ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:53
And the thing about solar power is that
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด์—์„œ ์ข‹์€ ์ ์€
08:55
it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,
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๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์›๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”์—†๊ณ  ์šด์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋น„๋„ ๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š์•„์„œ
08:58
so once it's installed, it's just there.
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ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋ฉด ์˜๊ตฌ์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
09:01
It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.
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์ˆ˜์‹ญ ๋…„์€ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜์ฃ . ์•„๋งˆ 100๋…„๋„ ๊ฐˆ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:05
So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์€ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ์˜
09:08
of that initial installation low,
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์‹œ๊ณต๋น„๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๊ณ ,
09:10
and then get the cost of the financing low,
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์„ค์น˜ ํˆฌ์ž ๋น„์šฉ์˜ ๋Œ€์ถœ๋„ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:13
because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.
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์ด ๋น„์šฉ -- ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด ๋น„์šฉ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
09:16
And we've made huge progress in that direction,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ์ ์—์„œ ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ์ง„์ „์„ ์ด๋ฃฉํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
09:20
and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
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์ด ์  ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฒœ์—ฐ ๊ฐ€์Šค๋ณด๋‹ค ์šฐ์œ„์— ์žˆ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ™•์‹ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:23
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์†Œ๋น„์ž์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ œ์•ˆ์€
09:26
don't pay so much up front.
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์šฐ์„  ๋งŽ์ด ์ง€์ถœํ•˜์ง€ ๋ง๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๊ตฐ์š”.
09:28
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ „ํ˜€์š”. ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์šฐ์„  ์ „ํ˜€ ์ง€์ถœํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
09:31
We will install panels on your roof.
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๋‹น์‹  ์ง‘ ์ง€๋ถ•์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํŒจ๋„์„ ์„ค์น˜ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:34
You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
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๊ทธ ์ดํ›„ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฑฐ์ฃ . ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ๋Œ€์—ฌ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
09:37
EM: Typical leases are 20 years,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ 20๋…„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ๊ณ„ํš์€, ์ง€๊ธˆ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๋งŒํผ ๊ฝค ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:45
It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.
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๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ธˆ์€ ์—†๊ณ , ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฃŒ๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:49
Pretty good deal.
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๊ฝค ์ข‹์€ ์ผ์ด์ฃ .
09:51
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ด๊ฑด ์†Œ๋น„์ž์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ๋„์›€์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:53
No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.
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์ „ํ˜€ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์—†์ฃ . ํ˜„์žฌ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ ๊ฒŒ ๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:56
For you, the dream here then is that --
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋‹น์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ๊ฟˆ์ด๋ž€ --
09:58
I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด ํŒจ๋„์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋˜๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์†Œ์œ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ?
10:03
I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ด์œค์„ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ•˜์ฃ ?
10:06
EM: Well, essentially,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋„ค, ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ,
10:10
SolarCity raises a chunk of capital
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"์†”๋ผ์‹œํ‹ฐ(SolarCity) "๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์ž๋ณธ์„, ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด
10:15
from say, a company or a bank.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋‚˜ ์€ํ–‰์—์„œ ์กฐ๋‹ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:19
Google is one of our big partners here.
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๊ตฌ๊ธ€์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
And they have an expected return on that capital.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ํˆฌ์ž์—์„œ ์ด์ต์„ ์›ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:24
With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof
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์ด ์ž๋ณธ์œผ๋กœ, ์†”๋ผ์‹œํ‹ฐ๋Š” ํŒจ๋„์„ ์ง€๋ถ•์— ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ 
10:28
and then charges the homeowner or business owner
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์ง‘์ด๋‚˜ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์†Œ์œ ์ž์—๊ฒŒ ๋‹ฌ๋งˆ๋‹ค
10:32
a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
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์ „๊ธฐ๋ฃŒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์€ ๋Œ€์—ฌ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ฒญ๊ตฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:35
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ๊ฐœ๊ฐœ์ธ์ด ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํƒœ์–‘์—ด์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:39
You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๊ณต์œ  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ˜•ํƒœ์˜ ์ „๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ง€์š”. .
10:43
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฑฐ์ฃ . ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์— ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
10:44
is a giant distributed utility.
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๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋˜๋Š” ์„ค๋น„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:48
I think it's a good thing, because utilities
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™œ๋ƒํ–๋ฉด ์ „๊ธฐ ์‹œ์„ค์€
10:50
have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.
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์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋…์ ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ, ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ๋Œ€์ค‘์€ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ์ฃ .
10:53
So effectively it's the first time
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ
10:55
there's been competition for this monopoly,
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์ด ๋…์  ์ฒด๊ณ„์— ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ด ์ƒ๊ธฐ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:59
because the utilities have been the only ones
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ „๊ธฐ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ „๊ธฐ ๋ฐฐ์„ ์„
11:02
that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.
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์†Œ์œ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋งŒ์˜ ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด์ œ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋„ค ์ง€๋ถ•์— ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
11:04
So I think it's actually very empowering
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๊ฐ€์ •๊ณผ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
11:06
for homeowners and businesses.
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ํฐ ๊ถŒํ•œ์„ ์ค€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:09
CA: And you really picture a future
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ƒ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
11:10
where a majority of power in America,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ฐ€์ •์—์„œ
11:14
within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
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10~20๋…„์ด๋‚˜ ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ์ƒ์•  ์•ˆ์— ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ?
11:19
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ €๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด์ด ์ ์–ด๋„ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™”๋œ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์› ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
11:25
and most likely a majority,
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์œ„์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ,
11:27
and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.
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20๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:32
I made that bet with someone โ€”CA: Definition of plurality is?
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๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€์™€ ๋‚ด๊ธฐํ–ˆ์ฃ . ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์ •์˜๋Š” ๋ญ์ฃ ?
11:35
EM: More from solar than any other source.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—ด์—์„œ ๋งŽ์€ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋ฅผ ์–ป๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
11:37
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์™€ ๋‚ด๊ธฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
11:41
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ด๋ฆ„์—†๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์นœ๊ตฌ์™€ ํ•œ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:44
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋งŒ ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”. (์›ƒ์Œ)
11:49
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋‚ด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ 2~3๋…„ ์ „์— ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
11:51
so in roughly 18 years,
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๋Œ€๋žต 18๋…„ ์•ˆ์—,
11:53
I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์›๋ณด๋‹ค๋„ ํƒœ์–‘ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ์“ฐ์ด๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:57
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๋‹น์‹  ์ž์‹ ๊ณผ ๋‚ด๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š”
11:59
with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฏธ์นœ ๋‚ด๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ‘์‹œ๋‹ค.
12:01
You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ํŽ˜์ดํŒ”์„ ํŒ”์•„ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋‚จ๊ธด ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:06
You decided to build a space company.
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์šฐ์ฃผ ๊ด€๋ จ ์‚ฌ์—… ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
12:08
Why on Earth would someone do that?
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์™œ ๋„๋Œ€์ฒด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฑธ ํ•˜๋ ค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ?
12:10
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
12:12
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋งž์•„์š”, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ ๋งŽ์ด ๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:15
People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด "์šฐ์ฃผ ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ ์กฐ๊ทธ๋งฃ๊ฒŒ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•œ
12:17
who made a small fortune in the space industry?"
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ๋“ค์–ด๋ดค์–ด?" ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜์ฃ .
12:20
Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.
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ํ™•์‹คํžˆ "๊ทธ๋Š” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์–ด" ๋ผ๊ณ ๋“ค ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•  ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:24
And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ํฐ ์žฌ์‚ฐ์„ ์ž‘๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”
12:27
the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋น ๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:29
And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ "์ด๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ง์ธ๊ฐ€?" ๋ผ๋ฉฐ ์ €๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:32
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„, ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋„ค์š”. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€์š”?
12:37
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ํฐ ์ผ๋‚  ๋ป”ํ–ˆ์ฃ . ์ผ์ด ์ž˜ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์„œ
12:41
We came very close to failure,
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ์‹คํŒจํ•  ๋ป”ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
12:42
but we managed to get through that point in 2008.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ์‹œ๊ธฐ์˜€๋˜ 2008๋…„์„ ์ž˜ ๋„˜๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:45
The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,
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"์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์Šค์—‘์Šค(SpaceX)" ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ๋กœ์ผ“ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ์ง„๋ณด์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ,
12:52
and in particular to try to crack a problem
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ํŠนํžˆ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ธ๋ฐ
12:54
that I think is vital
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋Š”,
12:55
for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,
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์ธ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ”์šฐ์ฃผ์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ์ด๋ฃจ๋ ค๋ฉด
12:57
which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
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๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ์™„์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋กœ์ผ“์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ธ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ”์šฐ์ฃผ์  ๋ฌธ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์ง„๋ณดํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
13:05
So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋ ธ์„ ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์–ด๋–ค, ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๊ฟˆ์ด์—ˆ๋‚˜์š”?
13:09
You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
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ํ™”์„ฑ๊ณผ ๊ทธ ๋„ˆ๋จธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ฟˆ๊พผ๋‹ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜?
13:13
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ ธ์„๋•Œ ๋กœ์ผ“์„ ๋งŒ๋“  ์ ์€ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
13:15
but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์„ ํ•  ์ค„์€ ๋ชฐ๋ž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:16
It was really more from the standpoint of
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ ์‹ ๋‚˜๊ณ  ์˜๊ฐ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์œ„ํ•ด
13:18
what are the things that need to happen in order for
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์•ผ ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ด€์ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š”
13:22
the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
13:25
And I really think there's a fundamental difference,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •๋ง ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
13:29
if you sort of look into the future,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ
13:30
between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,
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๋“ค์—ฌ๋‹ค๋ณผ ๋•Œ, ๋ฒ”์šฐ์ฃผ์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ์ด๋ฃฌ ์ธ๋ฅ˜,
13:34
that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋ณ„๊ณผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ–‰์„ฑ์„ ํƒํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ 
13:37
and I think that's really exciting,
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์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋„ ๋งค์šฐ ํฅ๋ถ„๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์™€,
13:39
compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth
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์ง€๊ตฌ์—๋งŒ ๊ณ„์† ๋ฌถ์—ฌ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์ค‘์—๋Š” ๋ฉธ์ข…ํ• 
13:42
until some eventual extinction event.
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์ธ๋ฅ˜๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:45
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋กœ์ผ“ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์„
13:46
a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.
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๊ณ„์‚ฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ๋Š” 75%๋‚˜ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”์—ˆ๋„ค์š”.
13:50
How on Earth have you done that?
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฑธ ๋Œ€์ฒด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
13:52
NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
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๋‚˜์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ด๊ฑธ ์ˆ˜๋…„์„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ–ˆ์ฃ . ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ ?
13:55
EM: Well, we've made significant advances
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋„ค, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃฉํ•œ ํฐ ์ง„๋ณด๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:57
in the technology of the airframe, the engines,
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ํŠนํžˆ ํ”„๋ ˆ์ž„๊ณผ ์—”์ง„, ์ „์ž๊ธฐ๊ธฐ์™€
14:00
the electronics and the launch operation.
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๋ฐœ์‚ฌ ๊ณผ์ •์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์—์„œ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
14:03
There's a long list of innovations
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๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ’ˆ ๋ชฉ๋ก์ด ๋งค์šฐ ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:06
that we've come up with there
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋กœ
14:08
that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ง๋กœ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ์ข€ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋งŒ..
14:14
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ ์–ด๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฒ ๊ปด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๊ฒ ์ฃ ?
14:17
You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ํŠนํ—ˆ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์ฃ . ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งค์šฐ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:20
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋„ค, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‚ด์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ํŠนํ—ˆ ์‹ ์ฒญ์„ ์•ˆ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
14:22
more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
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ํŠนํ—ˆ ์‹ ์ฒญ์ด ์‹ ์ฒญํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ผ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:25
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ถ€๋ผ์„œ,
14:28
the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
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ํŠนํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ง€์ผœ์งˆ์ง€ ์˜๋ฌธ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์› ๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”. (์›ƒ์Œ) (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
14:32
CA: That's really, really interesting.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ •๋ง, ๋งค์šฐ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กญ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:36
But the big innovation is still ahead,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์•„์ง๋„ ํฐ ํ˜์‹ ์ด ์•ž์— ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
14:38
and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ž‘์—…ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹  ๊ฑธ๋กœ ์••๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ข€ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•ด ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”.
14:41
EM: Right, so the big innovationโ€”
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํฐ ํ˜์‹ ์€--
14:43
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์‚ฌ์‹ค, ์ด ๋น„๋””์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ง์ ‘ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๋ฉด ์ข‹๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:47
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋ฌผ๋ก ์ด์ฃ . ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋กœ์ผ“์€
14:51
they're all expendable.
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์†Œ๋ชจํ’ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:52
All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋กœ์ผ“์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์†Œ๋ชจํ’ˆ์ด์ฃ .
14:55
The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,
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์šฐ์ฃผ ์™•๋ณต์„ ์ด ์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋กœ์ผ“์˜ ํ•œ ์‹œ๋„์˜€๋Š”๋ฐ,
14:57
but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ์šฐ์ฃผ์„ ์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ ํƒฑํฌ๋Š” ๋งค๋ฒˆ ๋–จ์–ด์ ธ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ ,
15:00
and the parts that were reusable
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์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ๋“ค๋„
15:02
took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.
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์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ๋งŒ ๋ช…์ด 9๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ ๋ถ™์žก๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:07
So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋น„ํ–‰ํ•  ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค 10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
15:11
Obviously that doesn't work very well for โ€”
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ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ž˜ ๋œ ๊ณ„ํš์€ ์•„๋‹Œ ๊ฒŒ --
15:13
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ฐฉ๊ธˆ ๋ญ์˜€์ฃ ? ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ์ฐฉ๋ฅ™ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ณธ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ?
15:16
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋งž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด, ์ด์ œ ๋กœ์ผ“์€
15:20
be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site
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๋Œ์•„์˜ฌ ์ค„ ์•Œ๊ณ , ์ถœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:24
and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ช‡ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์•ˆ์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐœ์‚ฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:27
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause)
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์™€, ์žฌํ™œ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋กœ์ผ“์ด๊ตฐ์š”. ์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋งž์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
15:31
And so what a lot of people don't realize is,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ์ ์ด,
15:35
the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.
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๋™๋ ฅ์›์ด๋‚˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž‘๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:37
It's much like on a jet.
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์ œํŠธ๊ธฐ์™€ ๋น„์Šทํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:39
So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ถ”์ง„์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์ด
15:42
of the cost of the rocket.
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์ „์ฒด์˜ 0.3% ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
So it's possible to achieve, let's say,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ, ๋งํ•˜์ž๋ฉด ๋Œ€๋žต 100๋ฐฐ๋กœ
15:46
roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight
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์šฐ์ฃผ ์—ฌํ–‰ ๊ฒฝ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ ˆ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:49
if you can effectively reuse the rocket.
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๋กœ์ผ“๋งŒ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
15:52
That's why it's so important.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:54
Every mode of transport that we use,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜๋‹จ๋“ค์€
15:56
whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,
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๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ๊ฑด ๊ธฐ์ฐจ๊ฑด ์ž๋™์ฐจ๊ฑด ์ž์ „๊ฑฐ๊ฑด ๋ง์ด๊ฑด ๊ฐ„์—
15:59
is reusable, but not rockets.
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๋กœ์ผ“๋งŒ ๋นผ๊ณ  ๋ชจ๋‘ ์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:01
So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ”์šฐ์ฃผ์  ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ์ด๋ฃจ๋ ค๋ฉด ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:05
CA: You asked me the question earlier
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ „์— ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ ์ค‘์—
16:06
of how popular traveling on cruises would be
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ํฌ๋ฃจ์ฆˆ ์—ฌํ–‰์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ธ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋Š๋ƒ,
16:10
if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
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๋‚˜์ค‘์— ์šฐ์ฃผ์„ ์„ ๋‹ค ํƒœ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ . ์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์–ด๋–ค ์—ฌํ–‰๋“ค์€ ๋งค์šฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:16
CA: Definitely more expensive.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ํ™•์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋น„์‹ธ์ง€๊ฒ ์ฃ .
16:18
So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ด๊ฑด ์ž ์žฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ํŒŒ๊ดด์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:22
and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”, ์šฐ์ฃผ ์—ฌํ–‰์˜ ๊ฟˆ์„ ์‹คํ˜„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
16:26
at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.
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์–ธ์ œ๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ธ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ํ™”์„ฑ์— ๊ฐ€์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:30
You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
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ํ™”์„ฑ ์‹๋ฏผ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
16:32
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์˜ˆ, ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ . ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์Šค์—‘์Šค ๋˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค๊ณผ
16:36
of companies and governments, needs to make progress
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์ •๋ถ€์˜ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ณ„์†ํ•˜๋ฉด
16:39
in the direction of making life multi-planetary,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐœ์˜ ํ–‰์„ฑ์—์„œ ์‚ถ์„ ์˜์œ„ํ•˜๊ณ ,
16:42
of establishing a base on another planet,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ–‰์„ฑ์— ๊ธฐ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ ,
16:46
on Mars -- being the only realistic option --
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-- ํŠนํžˆ ํ™”์„ฑ์ด ์‹คํ˜„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๊ณ  --
16:48
and then building that base up
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๊ทธ ๊ธฐ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ
16:49
until we're a true multi-planet species.
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์ง„์ •ํ•œ ๋‹คํ–‰์„ฑ ์ƒ๋ฌผ์ข…์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
16:52
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ "์žฌ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค"๋ผ๋Š” ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š”
16:55
how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ–‰์ค‘์ธ์ง€์š”? ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณธ ์‹œ๋ฎฌ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ ๋‚ด์šฉ์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
16:59
How's it going?
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ–‰์ค‘์ธ์ง€์š”?
17:00
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ํฐ ์ง„์ „์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:03
with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ "๋ฉ”๋šœ๊ธฐ"๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๋Š” ์‹คํ—˜์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋žฌ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
17:06
where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,
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์ด๊ฑด ๋น„ํ–‰์ฒด์˜ ์ˆ˜์ง ์ฐฉ๋ฅ™์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜๋กœ์„œ
17:10
the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ธํ…Œ ํŠนํžˆ ๋งค์šฐ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:13
And we've had some good tests.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:16
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‚˜์š”? ์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์š”.
17:18
So that's just to give a sense of scale.
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์ด๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋Œ€๊ฐ• ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฑด์ง€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
17:20
We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash
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์กฐ๋‹ˆ ์บ์‰ฌ(์ปจํŠธ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€์ˆ˜) ๊ฐ™์€ ์นด์šฐ๋ณด์ด ๋ณต์žฅ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ 
17:21
and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
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๋กœ์ผ“์— ๋งˆ๋„คํ‚น์„ ์žฅ์ „ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์›ƒ์Œ)
17:25
CA: All right, let's see that video then,
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋น„๋””์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ์ฃ .
17:27
because this is actually amazing when you think about it.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ด๊ฑด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋งค์šฐ ํ™˜์ƒ์ ์ธ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:29
You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฑธ ๋ณด์‹  ์ ์ด ์—†์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋กœ์ผ“์ด ๋ฐœ์‚ฌ๋œ ๋‹ค์Œ์— --
17:34
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋„ค, ๋กœ์ผ“์˜ ํฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋Œ€๊ฐ•
17:36
of a 12-story building.
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12์ธต ๋นŒ๋”ฉ ์ •๋„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:39
(Rocket launch)
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(๋กœ์ผ“ ๋ฐœ์‚ฌ)
17:50
So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,
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์ง€๊ธˆ 40๋ฏธํ„ฐ ์ •๋„ ์˜ฌ๋ผ ๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:54
and it's constantly adjusting
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ์ฃผ์—”์ง„์˜
17:56
the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,
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๊ฐ๋„, ๋†’์ด, ๊ธฐ์šธ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ ,
17:59
and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.
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์„ํƒ„ ๊ฐ€์Šค ์ถ”์ง„๊ธฐ๋กœ ์ž์„ธ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:09
CA: How cool is that? (Applause)
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๋ฉ‹์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”? (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
18:15
Elon, how have you done this?
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ, ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•˜์‹  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
18:20
These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,
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์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋“ค -- ํŽ˜์ดํŒ”, ์†”๋ผ์‹œํ‹ฐ,
18:25
Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,
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ํ…”์‚ฌ, ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์Šค์—‘์Šค, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋‹ค ์„œ๋กœ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด๊ณ ,
18:28
they're such ambitious projects at scale.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ™์ด ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋„ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํฐ๋ฐ์š”.
18:30
How on Earth has one person
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋„๋Œ€์ฒด ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
18:33
been able to innovate in this way?
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ํ˜์‹ ์„ ์ด๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ง€์š”?
18:35
What is it about you?
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๋‹น์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ ?
18:37
EM: I don't know, actually.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ์ €๋„ ์‹ค์€ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:43
I don't have a good answer for you.
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๋งˆ๋•…ํžˆ ์ข‹์€ ๋‹ต์ด ์—†๋„ค์š”.
18:45
I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
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์ €๋Š” ๋งŽ์ด ์ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง„์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ, ๋งŽ์ด ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:48
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ๊ธ€์Ž„์š”, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ก ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”. ์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๋„ค, ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:51
CA: My theory is that you
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ œ ์ด๋ก ์€, ๋‹น์‹ ์ด
18:54
have an ability to think at a system level of design
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๋””์ž์ธ์„ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜์ค€์—์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
18:58
that pulls together design, technology and business,
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๋””์ž์ธ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:02
so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ TED๊ฐ€ TBD, ๋””์ž์ธ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ , ์‚ฌ์—…์„
19:06
into one package,
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ํ•œ ๊ฐœ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€๋กœ ๋‹ด์•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด,
19:08
synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --
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๋งค์šฐ ์ ์€ ์ด๋“ค๋งŒ์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
19:10
and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident
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ํŠนํžˆ ๋งค์šฐ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ๊ฐ์ˆ˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์—
19:15
in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.
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ํ™•์‹ ์„ ๊ฑธ๊ณ  ์ถ”์ง„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:19
You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์žฌ์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฑธ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋žฌ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋ฒˆ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ด๋„ค์š”.
19:24
I mean, almost no one can do that.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ์ˆ˜ ์—†์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™๋„ค์š”.
19:26
Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋„ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋น„๋ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ข€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
19:29
Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?
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์ด๊ฑธ ๊ต์œก ๊ณผ์ •์— ๋‹ด์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”? ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‹น์‹ ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐฐ์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
19:33
It is truly amazing what you've done.
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๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์ด๋ฃฌ ๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:35
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ณ ๋ง™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ง ๊ณ ๋ง™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:37
Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š” ์ข‹์€ ํ‹€์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:41
It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์ฃ . ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ฒซ์งธ ์›์น™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:44
Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,
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์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:49
boil things down to their fundamental truths
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๋ฌผ์งˆ์˜ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ๊นŒ์ง€ ํŒŒ๊ณ ๋“ค๊ณ 
19:52
and reason up from there,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์—์„œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ,
19:54
as opposed to reasoning by analogy.
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์œ ์ถ”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:56
Through most of our life, we get through life
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์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๋ฉด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ถ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์—์„œ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ
19:58
by reasoning by analogy,
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์œ ์ถ”ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
19:59
which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.
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์ด ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์”ฉ ๋ณ€ํ˜•ํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐ„ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:03
And you have to do that.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:04
Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๋งค์ผ ์ •์‹ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฃจ ํ•˜๋ฃจ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‚ด๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“ค์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:09
But when you want to do something new,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด,
20:11
you have to apply the physics approach.
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๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์  ์ ‘๊ทผ์„ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:15
Physics is really figuring out how to discover
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๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒƒ์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ• ์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ํ•™๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ
20:17
new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.
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์ง๊ด€์— ์˜์กดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์–‘์ž์—ญํ•™์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
20:20
It's really counterintuitive.
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์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๋น„์ง๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:22
So I think that's an important thing to do,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:24
and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ํ‰๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„ ์ •๋ง ๊ท€๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์šธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:29
and solicit it, particularly from friends.
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ํŠนํžˆ ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ์˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:31
This may sound like simple advice,
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋งค์šฐ ํ‰๋ฒ”ํ•œ ์กฐ์–ธ์ด์ง€๋งŒ,
20:34
but hardly anyone does that,
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์ •๋ง ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:37
and it's incredibly helpful.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๋„์›€์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:39
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ํ•™์ƒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„, ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์„ ๋ฐฐ์›์‹œ๋‹ค.
20:42
Learn from this man.
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์ด ๋ถ„ํ•œํ…Œ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ์„ธ์š”.
20:44
Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
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์—˜๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฃจ ์ข…์ผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ข‹๊ฒ ๋„ค์š”. TED์— ์˜ค์‹  ๊ฑธ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:47
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.
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์•จ๋Ÿฐ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ : ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์•ค๋”์Šจ : ์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ง๋กœ ๋ฉ‹์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:51
Look at that. (Applause)
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์ด๊ฑธ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
20:53
Just take a bow. That was fantastic.
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์ธ์‚ฌํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค. ํ™˜์ƒ์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
20:58
Thank you so much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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