Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)

Prevodilac: Sandra Gojic Lektor: Ivana Korom

If you go on the TED website,

Ako odete na TED sajt,

you can currently find there

naći ćete, u ovom trenutku

over a full week of TEDTalk videos,

TEDTalks snimke za celu nedelju gledanja,

over 1.3 million

preko 1,3 miliona

words of transcripts

reči u transkriptima

and millions of user ratings.

i milione ocena korisnika.

And that's a huge amount of data.

A to je ogromna količina podataka.

And it got me wondering:

Pa sam se zapitao:

If you took all this data

da uzmete sve te podatke

and put it through statistical analysis,

i statistički ih obradite,

could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?

možete li obrnuti proces nastajanja TEDTalk-a?

Could you create

Možete li da stvorite

the ultimate TEDTalk?

vrhunski TEDTalk?

(Laughter) (Applause)

(aplauz)

And also, could you create

Isto tako, možete li stvoriti

the worst possible TEDTalk

najgori mogući TEDTalk

that they would still let you get away with?

sa kojim ćete se ipak izvući?

To find this out, I looked at three things:

Da bih ovo otkrio, posmatrao sam 3 stvari.

I looked at the topic that you should choose,

Temu koja bi trebalo da izaberete.

I looked at how you should deliver it

Kako bi to trebalo prezentovati

and the visuals onstage.

i vizuelno prikazati.

Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,

Što se tiče teme - postoji čitav spektar mogućih tema,

but you should choose wisely,

ali morate birati mudro,

because your topic strongly correlates

jer je vaša tema jako povezana

with how users will react to your talk.

sa rekacijama korisnika na vaš govor.

Now, to make this more concrete,

Da konkretizujemo,

let's look at the list of top 10 words

pogledaćemo listu 10 reči

that statistically stick out

koje se statistički izdvajaju

in the most favorite TEDTalks

u omiljenim i najmanje

and in the least favorite TEDTalks.

omiljenim TEDTalk prezentacijama.

So if you came here

Dakle, ako dođete ovde da

to talk about how French coffee

govorite kako će francuska kafa

will spread happiness in our brains,

širiti sreću u našim mozgovima,

that's a go.

to će proći.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(aplauz)

Whereas, if you wanted to talk about

Sa druge strane, ako hoćete da govorite

your project involving

o svom projektu koji uključuje

oxygen, girls, aircraft --

kiseonik, devojke, letelice -

actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)

ustvari, voleo bih da čujem taj govor,

but statistics say it's not so good.

ali statistika kaže da to ne bi bilo dobro.

Oh, well.

Eh, pa.

If you generalize this,

Ako generalizujemo ovo,

the most favorite TEDTalks are those

omiljeni TEDTalk su oni

that feature topics we can connect with,

sa čijim temama se možemo povezati,

both easily and deeply,

i lako i duboko,

such as happiness, our own body,

kao što su sreća, naše telo,

food, emotions.

hrana, emocije.

And the more technical topics,

A više tehničke teme,

such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,

kao arhitektura, materijali i zaista čudno, muškarci,

those are not good topics to talk about.

to nisu dobre teme za predavanje.

How should you deliver your talk?

Kako bi trebalo prezentovati vaš govor?

TED is famous for keeping

TED je poznat po tome

a very sharp eye on the clock,

što je strog po pitanju vremena,

so they're going to hate me

i zamrzeće me što ovo

for revealing this, because, actually,

otkrivam jer ustvari, trebalo bi da

you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)

govorite dokle god vas puste,

Because the most favorite TEDTalks

jer su omiljeni TEDTalks

are, on average, over 50 percent longer

oni koji su prosečno 50% duži

than the least favorite ones.

od najmanje omiljenih.

And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com

I to važi za sve rang liste na TED.com

except if you want to have a talk

osim ako želite da držite lep,

that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.

inspirišuć ili smešan govor.

Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,

Onda treba da ste kratki. Ali sem toga,

talk until they drag you off the stage.

pričajte dok vas ne odvuku sa bine.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

Now, while ...

E dok -

(Applause)

(aplauz)

While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.

Dok se trkate s vremenom, poštujte par pravila.

I found these rules out by comparing the statistics

Otkrio sam ih poredeći statistiku

of four-word phrases

fraza od četiri reči

that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks

koje se češće pojavljuju u popularnim, nego u

as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.

najmanje omiljenim TEDTalks.

I'll give you three examples.

Daću vam tri primera.

First of all, I must, as a speaker,

Prvo, kao govornik, moram

provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,

uslužiti publiku i pričati o onome što ću vam dati,

instead of saying what I can't have.

umesto da govorim o onome što ne mogu imati.

Secondly, it's imperative

Dugo, nikako ne smete

that you do not cite The New York Times.

da citirate "Njujork Tajms".

(Laughter)

(smeh)

And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --

I konačno, u redu je da govornik - to su dobre vesti -

to fake intellectual capacity.

da folira intelektualni kapacitet.

If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."

Ako nešto ne razumem, mogu reći "i tako dalje, i tako dalje".

You'll all stay with me.

I dalje ćete me slušati.

It's perfectly fine.

To je skroz u redu.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

Now, let's go to the visuals.

Sad pređimo na vizuelno.

The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.

Najvidljivija stvar na bini jeste sam govornik.

And analysis shows if you want to be

I analize pokazuju, da ako želite da budete

among the most favorite TED speakers,

među omiljenim TED govornicima,

you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,

treba da vam kosa bude malo duža nego prosečno,

make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up

pobrinite se da nosite naočare i da se doterate malo više

than the average TED speaker.

nego prosečan TED govornik.

Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.

Slajdovi su ok, ali razmislite da koristite i rekvizite.

And now the most important thing,

I najvažnija stvar,

that is the mood onstage.

jeste raspoloženje na bini.

Color plays a very important role.

Boje igraju vrlo važnu ulogu.

Color closely correlates

Boja je blisko povezana

with the ratings that talks get on the website.

sa ocenama koje govori dobijaju na sajtu.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

For example, fascinating talks

Na primer, zapanjujući govori

contain a statistically high amount

sadrže statistički značajnu količinu

of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)

tačno ove plave boje,

much more than the average TEDTalk.

mnogo više nego prosečni govor.

Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,

Ingeniozni TEDTalk, mnogo više ove zelene,

etc., et.

i tako dalje, i tako dalje.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(aplauz)

Now, personally, I think

Sad, lično, mislim

I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,

da nisam prvi koji je napravio ove analize,

but I'll leave this

ali ostaviću to

to your good judgment.

vašoj proceni.

So, now it's time to put it all together

Dakle, vreme je da sve stavimo zajedno

and design the ultimate TEDTalk.

i kreiramo vrhunski TEDTalk.

Now, since this is TEDActive,

Pošto je ovo TEDActive,

and I learned from my analysis

a iz svojih analiza sam naučio

that I should actually give you something,

da zapravo treba nešto da vam dam,

I will not impose the ultimate

neću vam nametnuti najbolji

or worst TEDTalk on you,

ili najgori TEDTalk,

but rather give you a tool to create your own.

već pre alat da sami stvorite svoj.

And I call this tool the TEDPad.

Taj alat zovem TEDPad.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

And the TEDPad is a matrix

A TEDPad je matrica

of 100 specifically selected,

sa 100 posebno odabranih,

highly curated sentences

visoko organizovanih rečenica

that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.

koje možete lako sastaviti i napraviti svoj TEDTalk.

You only have to make one decision,

Morate doneti samo jednu odluku

and that is: Are you going to use the white version

a to je: Hoćete li koristiti ovu belu verziju

for very good TEDTalks,

za veoma dobar TEDTalk,

about creativity, human genius?

o kreativnosti, ljudskoj genijalnosti?

Or are you going to go with a black version,

Ili ćete koristiti crnu verziju, koja će

which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,

vam omogućiti da napravite vrlo loš TEDTalk,

mostly about blogs,

uglavnom o blogovima,

politics and stuff?

politici i tome slično?

So, download it and have fun with it.

Skinite ga i zabavite se sa njim.

Now I hope you enjoy the session.

Nadam se da ćete uživati u sesiji.

I hope you enjoy designing your own

Nadam se da ćete uživati stvarajući svoj

ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.

najbolji i najgori mogući TEDTalk.

And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year

I nadam se da će neki od vas biti inspirisani da sledeće

to create this, which I really want to see.

godine naprave ovo, što stvarno želim da vidim.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause) Thanks.

(aplauz)