Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)

Translator: Evridika Cuder Reviewer: Matej Divjak

If you go on the TED website,

Če obiščete stran TED.com,

you can currently find there

lahko tam trenutno najdete

over a full week of TEDTalk videos,

za več kot en teden videoposnetkov TEDTalks,

over 1.3 million

več kot 1,3 milijona

words of transcripts

transkribiranih besed

and millions of user ratings.

in na milijone ocen gledalcev.

And that's a huge amount of data.

Ogromne količine podatkov.

And it got me wondering:

Zato sem se začel spraševati,

If you took all this data

kaj se zgodi, če se te

and put it through statistical analysis,

podatke statistično analizira.

could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?

Je na podlagi tega mogoče vzvratno sestaviti TED Talk?

Could you create

Se da na ta način ustvariti najboljši

the ultimate TEDTalk?

TED Talk vseh časov?

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Aplavz)

And also, could you create

In ali se na drugi strani

the worst possible TEDTalk

da ustvariti najslabši TED Talk,

that they would still let you get away with?

ki bo še vedno gledljiv?

To find this out, I looked at three things:

Da bi temu prišel do dna, sem preverjal tri stvari.

I looked at the topic that you should choose,

Pogledal sem izbrane teme,

I looked at how you should deliver it

način podajanja teh vsebin

and the visuals onstage.

in vizualne pripomočke na odru.

Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,

Glede tematike - obstaja cela vrsta vsebin, med katerimi

but you should choose wisely,

toda pri tem morate biti previdni,

because your topic strongly correlates

kajti vaš izbor je močno povezan

with how users will react to your talk.

z reakcijo gledalcev na vaš govor.

Now, to make this more concrete,

Da si boste to lažje predstavljali,

let's look at the list of top 10 words

si poglejmo seznam 10 besed,

that statistically stick out

ki se statistično največkrat pojavljajo

in the most favorite TEDTalks

v najbolj priljubljenih

and in the least favorite TEDTalks.

in v najmanj priljubljenih govorih.

So if you came here

Torej, če boste govorili o tem,

to talk about how French coffee

kako francoska kava širi

will spread happiness in our brains,

srečo v vaših možganih,

that's a go.

je to zadetek v polno.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Aplavz)

Whereas, if you wanted to talk about

Če pa bi radi govorili o

your project involving

vašem projektu, ki vključuje

oxygen, girls, aircraft --

kisik, dekleta, letala --

actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)

čeprav bi jaz pravzaprav z veseljem poslušal ta govor --

but statistics say it's not so good.

statistika pravi,

Oh, well.

da ni dober. Bo že.

If you generalize this,

Če to posplošimo,

the most favorite TEDTalks are those

so najbolj priljubljeni govori tisti,

that feature topics we can connect with,

ki vključujejo teme, s katerimi se lahko povežemo

both easily and deeply,

hitro in močno,

such as happiness, our own body,

kot so sreča, naše telo,

food, emotions.

hrana, čustva.

And the more technical topics,

Na drugi strani pa teme bolj tehnične narave

such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,

kot so arhitektura, materiali in začuda, moški,

those are not good topics to talk about.

niso preveč dobra izbira.

How should you deliver your talk?

In kakšen mora biti vaš nastop?

TED is famous for keeping

TED je znan po tem, da se zelo

a very sharp eye on the clock,

drži časovne omejitve,

so they're going to hate me

zato jim ne bo všeč,

for revealing this, because, actually,

ko bom to razkril, kajti

you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)

govoriti morate, dokler vam bodo pustili,

Because the most favorite TEDTalks

saj so najbolj priljubljeni TED Talks

are, on average, over 50 percent longer

v povprečju za 50 % daljši

than the least favorite ones.

od najmanj priljubljenih.

And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com

In to velja za vse lestvice priljubljenosti na TED.com,

except if you want to have a talk

razen, če želite, da je vaš posnetek ocenjen kot

that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.

čudovit, navdihujoč ali smešen.

Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,

Potem morate biti kratki. Drugače pa

talk until they drag you off the stage.

morate govoriti, dokler vas ne zvlečejo z odra.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, while ...

No, medtem ko --

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.

Medtem ko zavlačujete, pa morate upoštevati določena pravila,

I found these rules out by comparing the statistics

ki sem jih odkril s statistično primerjavo

of four-word phrases

štiribesednih fraz,

that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks

ki se pogosteje pojavljajo v najbolj priljubljenih TED Talks

as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.

v nasprotju z najmanj priljubljenimi.

I'll give you three examples.

Naj predstavim tri primere:

First of all, I must, as a speaker,

Prvič, kot govornik morate

provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,

občinstvu nekaj ponuditi, govoriti o tem, kaj mu lahko daste,

instead of saying what I can't have.

namesto o tem, česar ne morete imeti.

Secondly, it's imperative

Drugič, niti pod razno

that you do not cite The New York Times.

ne smete citirati New York Timesa.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --

In nazadnje še dobra novica za govorce,

to fake intellectual capacity.

nič ni narobe, če simulirate intelektualne sposobnosti.

If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."

Če česa ne razumete, lahko vedno rečete "in tako dalje in tako naprej".

You'll all stay with me.

Vsi vas bodo še naprej pozorno poslušali.

It's perfectly fine.

Je popolnoma v redu.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

Now, let's go to the visuals.

Tako, sedaj pa še nekaj o vizualnih pripomočkih.

The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.

Najočitnejša stvar na odru je govornik.

And analysis shows if you want to be

Analize so pokazale, da morate,

among the most favorite TED speakers,

če želite biti med najbolj priljubljenimi TED predavatelji,

you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,

imeti lase za malenkost daljše od povprečja,

make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up

nositi očala in biti za spoznanje bolj elegantno oblečeni kot

than the average TED speaker.

povprečni govornik.

Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.

Prezentacija je v redu, vendar je dobro vključiti tudi kakšne pripomočke.

And now the most important thing,

In najbolj pomembna stvar

that is the mood onstage.

je atmosfera na odru.

Color plays a very important role.

Barve igrajo zelo pomembno vlogo.

Color closely correlates

Barva je v neposredni povezavi z

with the ratings that talks get on the website.

ocenami, ki jih posnetki prejmejo na strani TED.com.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

For example, fascinating talks

Na primer: očarljivi govori

contain a statistically high amount

statistično vsebujejo visok delež

of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)

natanko te modre barve,

much more than the average TEDTalk.

veliko več kot povprečno ocenjen TED Talk.

Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,

Domiselni so obarvani s to zeleno barvo

etc., et.

in tako dalje in tako naprej.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Aplavz)

Now, personally, I think

Torej, osebno mislim, da

I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,

nisem prvi, ki je naredil takšno analizo,

but I'll leave this

ampak to bom prepustil

to your good judgment.

vaši dobri presojji.

So, now it's time to put it all together

Sedaj je prišel čas, da vse podatke združimo in

and design the ultimate TEDTalk.

ustvarimo najboljši TED Talk vseh časov.

Now, since this is TEDActive,

Ker smo danes na TED Active,

and I learned from my analysis

in ker sem se iz lastnih analiz naučil,

that I should actually give you something,

da vam moram dejansko nekaj ponuditi --

I will not impose the ultimate

ne bom vam vsiljeval najboljšega

or worst TEDTalk on you,

ali najslabšega posnetka --

but rather give you a tool to create your own.

ampak vam bom raje dal orodje, s katerim si ga lahko naredite sami.

And I call this tool the TEDPad.

In to orodje bom poimenoval TED Pad.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And the TEDPad is a matrix

TED Pad je matrika,

of 100 specifically selected,

100 posebej izbranih,

highly curated sentences

podrobno obdelanih stavkov,

that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.

ki jih lahko na enostaven način sestavite skupaj in ustvarite svoj TED Talk.

You only have to make one decision,

Odločiti se morate samo,

and that is: Are you going to use the white version

ali boste uporabili belo verzijo

for very good TEDTalks,

za zelo dober TED Talk

about creativity, human genius?

o ustvarjalnosti, človeški inteligenci?

Or are you going to go with a black version,

Ali boste raje vzeli črno različico,

which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,

s pomočjo katere boste ustvarili resnično slab TED Talk,

mostly about blogs,

večinoma o blogih,

politics and stuff?

politiki in podobnih stvareh?

So, download it and have fun with it.

Naložite si ga na svoj računalnik in se zabavajte.

Now I hope you enjoy the session.

Upam, da ste v predavanju uživali.

I hope you enjoy designing your own

In da boste uživali tudi pri ustvarjanju svojih

ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.

najboljših in najslabših govorov.

And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year

In upam, da bo kdo izmed vas dobil navdih in naslednje leto

to create this, which I really want to see.

ustvaril to, kar si zares želim videti.

Thank you very much.

Najlepša hvala.

(Applause) Thanks.

(Aplavz)