Why incompetent people think they're amazing - David Dunning

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Are you as good at things as you think you are?

Da li ste dobri u stvarima onoliko koliko mislite da jeste?

How good are you at managing money?

Koliko ste dobri u upravljanju novcem?

What about reading people's emotions?

Šta je sa čitanjem ljudskih emocija?

How healthy are you compared to other people you know?

Koliko ste zdravi u poređenju sa drugim ljudima koje poznajete?

Are you better than average at grammar?

Da li ste u proseku bolji u gramatici?

Knowing how competent we are

Poznavanje svoje stručnosti

and how are skill stack up against other people's

i kako naše veštine stoje u poređenju sa drugim ljudima

is more than a self-esteem boost.

je više od jačanja samopouzdanja.

It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instincts

Pomaže nam da shvatimo kada možemo da se držimo naših odluka i instinkata,

and when we need, instead, to seek out advice.

a kada nam je, umesto toga, potrebno da tražimo savet.

But psychological research suggests that we're not very good

Međutim psihološka istraživanja nagoveštavaju da nismo naročito dobri

at evaluating ourselves accurately.

u preciznoj samoproceni.

In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities.

Zapravo, često precenjujemo sopstvene sposobnosti.

Researchers have a name for this phenomena,

Istraživači imaju naziv za ovu pojavu,

the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Daning-Krugerov efekat.

This effect explains why more than 100 studies

Ovaj efekat objašnjava zašto je preko 100 istraživanja

have shown that people display illusory superiority.

utvrdilo da ljudi pokazuju iluzornu superiornost.

We judge ourselves as better than others

Cenimo sebe kao bolje od drugih

to a degree that violates the laws of math.

u meri koja narušava zakone matematike.

When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance,

Kada su softverski inženjeri u dve firme upitani da ocene svoj učinak,

32% of the engineers at one company and 42% at the other

32% inženjera iz jedne firme i 42% iz druge

put themselves in the top 5%.

je stavilo sebe u 5% najboljih.

In another study, 88% of American drivers

U drugom istraživanju, 88% američkih vozača

described themselves as having above average driving skills.

su opisali sebe kao nekoga ko ima natprosečne veštine vožnje.

These aren't isolated findings.

Ovo nisu izolovana otkrića.

On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most

U proseku, ljudi su skloni tome da sebe ocenjuju kao bolje od većine

in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.

u disciplinama koje sežu od zdravlja, veština predvodništva, etike itd.

What's particularly interesting is that those with the least ability

Naročito je zanimljivo to da su oni najnesposobniji

are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.

često najskloniji precenjivanju svojih veština u najvećoj meri.

People measurably poor at logical reasoning,

Ljudi koji su vidno loši u logičkom zaključivanju,

grammar,

gramatici,

financial knowledge,

finansijskom znanju,

math,

emotional intelligence,

matematici,

emocionalnoj inteligenciji,

running medical lab tests,

izvođenju laboratorijskih medicinskih testova

and chess

i šahu,

all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.

svi su skloni ocenjivanju svoje stručnosti skoro jednako povoljno kao stručnjaci.

So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?

Pa, ko je najpodložniji ovoj obmani?

Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence

Na žalost, svi mi jer svi mi imamo parčiće nesposobnosti

we don't recognize.

koje ne prepoznajemo.

But why?

Međutim zašto?

When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999,

Kada su psiholozi Daning i Kruger prvi put opisali ovaj efekat 1999,

they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas

tvrdili su da ljudi kojima manjka znanja i veština u određenim oblastima

suffer a double curse.

pate od dvostruke kletve.

First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.

Prvo, prave greške i donose loše odluke.

But second, those same knowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.

Ali, drugo, te iste rupe u znanju ih sprečavaju i da zapaze svoje greške.

In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed

Drugim rečima, lošim znalcima nedostaje baš ona stručnost koja ima je potrebna

to recognize how badly they're doing.

da uvide koliko im loše ide.

For example, when the researchers studied

Na primer, kada su istraživači izučavali

participants in a college debate tournament,

učesnike na fakultetskom turniru debate,

the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary rounds

najlošijih 25% ekipa u preliminarnim rundama

lost nearly four out of every five matches.

je izgubilo četiri od svakih pet mečeva.

But they thought they were winning almost 60%.

Međutim, smatrali su da pobeđuju u skoro 60%.

WIthout a strong grasp of the rules of debate,

Bez jasnog razumevanja pravila debate,

the students simply couldn't recognize when or how often

studenti prosto nisu mogli da prepoznaju kada ili koliko često

their arguments broke down.

su njihovi argumenti pobijeni.

The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.

Daning-Krugerov efekat nije pitanje toga da smo zbog ega slepi za naše slabosti.

People usually do admit their deficits once they can spot them.

Ljudi često priznaju svoje nedostatke kada uspeju da ih spaze.

In one study, students who had initially done badly on a logic quiz

U jedom istraživanju, đaci koji su prvobitno loše prošli na logičkom kvizu

and then took a mini course on logic

a potom su pohađali kraći kurs logike

were quite willing to label their original performances as awful.

su bili prilično voljni da označe prvobitni učinak kao užasan.

That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise

Možda zbog toga ljudi sa umerenom količinom iskustva i stručnosti

often have less confidence in their abilities.

često imaju manje samopouzdanja u svoje sposobnosti.

They know enough to know that there's a lot they don't know.

Znaju dovoljno da znaju kako ima mnogo toga što ne znaju.

Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.

U međuvremenu, stručnjaci su svesni toga koliko znaju.

But they often make a different mistake:

Međutim, često prave drugačiju grešku:

they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.

pretpostavljaju da svi ostali znaju koliko i oni.

The result is that people, whether they're inept or highly skilled,

Iz toga proishodi da ljudi, bilo da su nevični ili visoko kvalifikovani,

are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.

često su zarobljeni u mehuru netačne samoprocene.

When they're unskilled, they can't see their own faults.

Kada su nevični, ne mogu da vide sopstvene mane.

When they're exceptionally competent,

Kada su izuzetno kompetentni,

they don't perceive how unusual their abilities are.

ne uviđaju koliko su neobične njihove sposobnosti.

So if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those experiencing it,

Pa, ako je Daning-Krugerov efekat nevidljiv onima koji ga doživljavaju,

what can you do to find out how good you actually are at various things?

šta možete da uradite da otkrijete koliko ste zaista dobri u raznim stvarima?

First, ask for feedback from other people,

Prvo, pitajte druge ljude za povratnu informaciju

and consider it, even if it's hard to hear.

i razmotrite je, čak iako vam ne prija.

Second, and more important, keep learning.

Drugo, i još važnije, nastavite da učite.

The more knowledgeable we become,

Što smo obučeniji,

the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.

to smo manje skloni da imamo nevidjive rupe u našoj sposobnosti.

Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb:

Možda se sve svodi na staru poslovicu:

When arguing with a fool,

Kada se raspravljate sa budalom,

first make sure the other person isn't doing the same thing.

prvo se postarajte da i druga osoba ne radi to isto.